Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Week 15 Real Rankings



It’s Jason’s world and we’re all living in it, even Gibby. Those two comprised a top tier for a while but Gibby has started to slide back the past few weeks (coinciding with the loss of Kershaw?) while Jason has continued his dominance. At 5.10, Jason is threatening to break the 5.00 plane, which is pretty incredible when you consider that means he’s averaged fifth place in all categories the entire season.  Never one to leave a trade deadline empty-handed, the team could get even better.
 
And odd bit of statistical gold this week – the top two teams in Real Rankings (me and Jason), who also happen to be the top two teams in the actual standings, both posted clean sweeps of their opponents, ending the week at 10-0. The oddity comes in that their opponents happened to be #13 and #14 in the Real Rankings this week. Mix in the gaudy numbers from the extended week and you have some extreme domination there.
 
Other than pushing everyone farther out of first, week 15 did little to clear up who will be in the playoffs and who will not. Sitting in 13th place, Urban is still only 7.5 games out of a playoff spot. That’s a number that can easily be made up over the course of six weeks. That means everyone who wants to be in it is in it.
 
However, that begs the question – who wants to be in it? The open trading period starts at midnight on Sunday. That means teams can trade two picks in Rounds 7-10 in the 2017 draft. There is no limit on the number of picks one can acquire. But with so many people still in it, will anyone be selling (other than the skeletal remains of Kyle’s long-picked apart corpse, that is)? Whoever calls it stands to benefit quite a bit because there’s a lot of desperate teams looking for help. The question is: Is it worth it?
 
DON’T FORGET:  The top non-playoff team gets the #1 pick next season, 9th place gets first pick, 10th place gets second, and so on. No lottery After the vote, we decided to revisit after this year on whether to lottery non-playoff teams. But this is sort of what I had hoped for – it incentivizes everyone to finish strong.
 
I should say ahead of it that there will be no tanking. You will be expected to have a full, active roster and it is the Commissioner’s discretion whether to punish violators. I will not hesitate to throw someone out and get an interim manager to take over a roster if I see it. We will not have the playoffs decided by teams tanking on purpose.
 
That said, I see no reason not to do your best. As all of you know, anything can happen in a H2H playoff. The best team usually does not win, so keep that in mind. Meanwhile, the difference between the first and sixth pick is miniscule. The first overall pick sounds great, but it can’t compare to the potential off a playoff run. I haven’t picked in the first round in a few years (I annually get talked into trading them), and haven’t had a top 5 pick that I can remember. I’ve been doing all right for myself.
 
The cluster of teams between 7.0-8.0 on the Real Rankings comprise most of the bottom half of the current playoff team and those on the fringe, so it’s really anyone’s game. The open trading period could go a long way toward clearing up that picture. The question is whether teams will wait a week to decide whether to start selling. Anal has been good lately, while Donkey and Moose are also playing well. Still much to be decided!
 
People should start thinking about paying your fee soon. Only a handful have so far.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Week 14 Real Rankings



As the Real Rankings now show, there is now a new most aggrieved team in the league.  Thor’s luck has corrected and his 5th place Real Ranking is in line with his 7th place, but poor Dan and his group of Urban Underachievers are sitting pretty at 6th in the Real Rankings but a dreadful 13th in the actual standings. The roster looks good too. Will be a sad reality if he ends up having to sell because the talent is there for a playoff run if he can sneak in.
 
Not a big surprise that Jason’s One Nuts are the top team over the last four weeks at 4.7, as he’s been on quite a role lately, but the number two team is a bit surprising. Anal Hershiser is bringing a 5.1 Real Ranking over the last four weeks, compiling a 26-10-4 record over that span, which has vaulted the duo into 5th place in the Actual Standings. Fun fact: Anal is tied with Thor for third in most sub-5.0 Real Rankings weeks at 4. Napalm is second with 6 and One Nut is first with an astounding 8 weeks.
 
There are 8 teams with real ranking between 7.0 and 8.0, meaning it is incredible close among the teams jockeying for a playoff spot.
 
18 days until the two-week open trading period begins. Teams will be able to deal two of their 7-10th round picks during this time frame. There is not limit on the number of these picks you can acquire.
 
All-Star team over the first two-thirds of our season:
C Buster Posey, Cowhide (K)
1B Paul Goldschmidt, Ring (K)
2B Jose Altuve, Cowhide (K)
3B Josh Donaldson, Anal (K)
SS Ian Desmond, One Nut (10th round)
OF Mike Trout, Brokeback (K)
OF Kris Bryant, Ring (K)
OF Bryce Harper, Thor (K)
SP Clayton Kershaw, Napalm (K)
SP Madison Bumgarner, One Nut (K)
SP Max Scherzer, Keepin (K)
SP Jose Fernandez, Urban (K)
SP Johnny Cueto, Cowhide (K)
SP Stephen Strasburg, Donkey (K)
RP Kenley Jensen, Anal (9th round)
RP Jeurys Familia, Urban (12th round)
RP Sam Dyson, Montezumas (FA)
 
All-Value team over the first two-thirds:
C Wilson Ramos, Brokeback (FA)
1B Wil Myers, Napalm (12th round)
2B Daniel Murphy, Cowhide (12th round)
3B Jake Lamb, Anal (FA)
SS Jonathan Villar, Montezumas (FA)
OF Mark Trumbo, Thor (22nd round)
OF Jackie Bradley Jr., One Nut/Angry (FA)
OF Mike Napoli, Moose (FA)
SP Drew Pomeranz, Stroman (FA)
SP Marco Estrada, Urban (18th round)
SP Rich Hill, Montezumas (FA)
SP Kyle Hendricks, Stroman (13th round)
SP Kenta Maeda, Napalm (11th round)
SP Michael Fulmer, Anal (FA)
RP Sam Dyson, Montezumas (FA)
RP Jeanmar Gomez, Brokeback (FA)
RP Will Harris, Cowhide (FA)
 
Another tough statistical reality for Dan: Urban is third in Real Ranking in the season’s second trimester. The past seven weeks:
1
One Nut Wonders
4.74
2
Sexual Napalm
5.53
3
Urban Achievers
6.48
4
Montezuma's
6.49
5
Anal Hershiser
6.59
6
Cowhide Joyride
6.86
7
Thor's Hammered
6.93
8
Ring of Fire
7.26
9
Brokeback
7.50
10
Moose is Loose!
7.53
11
Stroman my Cobb
7.90
12
Donkey Punchers
8.08
13
Keepin it REAL...
8.21
14
The Angry Pirates
9.69
 
Don’t forget, WEEK 15 DOES NOT END SUNDAY. In Yahoo, it carries over into next week’s games, so expect some gaudy cumulative stats by the time Week 15 ends on July 24.
 
Will catch up on trade reviews in the next week.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016