Saturday, May 30, 2015

Week 7 Real Rankings

So big whoopsy with the Real Rankings. Apparently they haven’t been so real, or at least accurate. Turns out my spreadsheets weren’t including SV+HLD all along. This was likely due to the conversion from SV to SV+HLD, which I thought I had covered for, but apparently not. So, there are some adjustments, albeit minor. The orange column shows what you were ranked without the category and the blue column next to it is the actual rank. The real change is Jason moves up a couple spots and Dave moves down a few. I apologize for the rookie error.
NOTES:
  • We have hit the end of the first trimester! One-third of the season is gone and, as you’ll see by the transaction log, there is more than enough sample size to reach conclusions on your players. I imagine trading will pick up even more in the coming weeks.
  • Just a sidenote since my last notes installment, Ryu went down too. That leaves, well, not many left of the SPs supposedly expected to join their respective rotations early in the season. Now, the wait is on for last year’s TJS survivors – Moore, Corbin, Perez, Nova, Fernandez, to name a few.
  • From the Real Rankings and Actual Standings, one can conclude that there’s currently one dominant team (Me). There’s another tier just below that is led by Shannon, Kyle, and Lars (a welcome return back to relevancy). Shomphe and Jason are close by, except their on the opposite ends of the luck spectrum as Jason has been decidedly unlucky, ranking outside the last playoff spot currently, while Chris is sitting pretty in second place.
  • Even though he was hurt by my calculation error, Dave should not be in the basement in the Actual Standings this year as he’s 9th in the Real Rankings and just a great week away from being in the top 5. We have two seasons of data that show these things ultimately even out as the season moves along, so they should not be ignored.
  • One thing Dave has going for him is consistency. The VAR column (gray) shows the volatility of the Real Rankings throughout the year. And as you can see by looking at the week to week RR scores, Dave is clearly in the mix each week and has a league leading VAR of 0.6.
  • On the other side of the volatility spectrum, Gibby has had a bit of a schizophrenic start, ranging from 4.8 last week to 11.6 two weeks prior
  • Week 7 saw a reversal of some recent trends, with both Shannon and myself losing matches to lower-ranking teams. For Shannon, it was simply a rare bad week, while I got a bit unlucky, losing 4-5-1 but ranking in the top four in the Real Ranks. Still, the week showed some flaws in my team that weren’t there the first few weeks, so we’ll see if it becomes a pattern.
  • Updated top 25 below. Unlike the beginning of the season, you’re starting to see the cream rise to the top and stay there with these ranks. That said, there are a few noteworthy ascensions. Harper has become the beast everyone dreamed he’d be years before he was even drafted, Gordon has proved he is a legit top of the line speedster, Shelby is achieving the promise he showed as a young prospect, likewise Archer has emerged as the ace K artist the Rays envisioned when they dealt Garza to the Cubs years ago, Keuchel has proven his GB ways can be most effective, Cole’s numbers have ascended to match his name and pedigree, Gray’s sophomore season has solidified his place among the aces, and Starling has grown into a balanced stud with 30/30 potential.
TOP 25
1.       OF Bryce Harper, Munchkins
2.       1B Paul Goldshmidt, Ring
3.       OF Nelson Cruz, Anal
4.       OF Justin Upton, One Nut
5.       SP Max Scherzer, Keepin
6.       3B Josh Donaldson, Anal
7.       SP Felix Hernandez, Urban
8.       OF Mike Trout, MET
9.       SP Zach Grienke, Moose
10.   2B Dee Gordon, Anal
11.   1B Prince Fielder, Donkey
12.   1B Adrian Gonzalez, Donkey
13.   SP Shelby Miller, Montezumas
14.   1B Anthony Rizzo, Montezumas
15.   SP Chris Archer, One Nut
16.   2B Jason Kipnis, Ring
17.   1B Miguel Cabrera, Munchkins
18.   OF Ryan Braun, One Nut
19.   SP Dallas Keuchel, Donkey
20.   SP Gerrit Cole, MET
21.   3B Todd Frazier, Angry
22.   SP Sonny Gray, Donkey
23.   2B Jose Altuve, Cowhide
24.   OF Starline Marte, Montezumas
25.   OF Giancarlo Stanton, Angry

Friday, May 22, 2015

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Week 5 Real Rankings



NOTES
- Number one in the standings, number one in the real rankings, number one in your hearts, the Revenge finally had a good week of pitching to match some truly remarkable hitting (6 hitters in the top 50)

- One that note, Dave got a pretty raw deal  this week going against me as he was 5th in the real rankings and had two outings by Salazar and Pineda totalling 2 ER and 27 Ks basically go for naught.

- But as you can see, that's just part for the course for Dave as he's 6th in the Real Rankings and 13th in the Actual Standings. The nice part is that this stuff tends to even out toward the end.

- Conversely, the Real Rankings aren't overly impressed by the hot start of the Munchkins (9th, 3rd in standings) but after a tough week, Shomphe's team bounced back nicely despite trading for Harper after the run and having Dan acquire Felix on a start day.

- I remember going through mounds of medical reports before the raft trying to see who was worth drafting among the recovering SPs and who was not. I was pretty comfortable with Cobb, Smyly, and Bailey, but perhaps I shouldn't have been. Goes to show you the recovery from arm injuries isn't always smooth. Jarrod Parker is another. Ryu still hasn't come back either. Richards is the only one bouncing back, but his was  a freak leg injury.

- Believe it or not, we are officially almost one-quarter way through the season. Which means its officially time to start dealing with the realities of your squad. Is there enough production to justify holding or is it time to cut bait and go to the list of very intriguing wire options (really, love a lot of the names out there, especially on offense). No reason to start selling now, but certainly a good time evaluate. There's still lots of time left.




TOP 20
1. OF Nelson Cruz, Anal

2. 1B Paul Goldshmidt, Ring
3.  OF Bryce Harper, Munchkins
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez, Donkey
5. SP Felix Hernandez, Urban
6. OF Mike Trout, MET
7. 3B Josh Donaldson, Anal
8. 1B Anthony Rizzo, Montezumas
9. OF Justin Upton, One Nut
10. SP Dallas Keuchel, Donkey
11. SP Zach Grienke, Moose
12. C Stephen Vogt, Sexual
13. 2B Jose Altuve, Cowhide
14. 2B Dee Gordon, Anal
15. 1B Eric Hosmer, Prestige
16. OF Brett Gardner, Urban
17. SP Maz Scherzer, Keepin
18. SP Shelby Miller, Montezumas
19. SP Sonny Gray, Donkey
20. OF Giancarlo Stanton, Angry

Thursday, May 7, 2015