2015 Draft Day Dialogue

Pre-draft:  Brian: “I'm not going to lie, two of my kids are puking and my wife left for a book club / drinking club tonight… If I accidentally autodraft someone, I apologize up front”

Pre-draft: Dan: “anyone else expecting big things from Yu Darvish this year?”

Pre-draft: Russ: “Oscar Tavares didn't get kept?”

Pre-draft: Pierce: “is the draft order screwed up?.  Adam:  “Yes it will fix itself” Pierce: “ok cool.” Adam: “Someone always seems to ask that.”

Pre-draft:  Lars: “Am I the last pick?” Adam: “No Lars. It will reload with correct order once the draft starts.” Lars: “I'm assuming it will asign picks correctly once they populate the keepers??”

Pick 85 (first overall): Keepin it REAL… selects R. Castillo Bos – OF.  Pierce: “that didn’t go well.” Adam:  "You could do worse".  Pierce:  “…i could be troy”

Pick 89: Prestige Worldwide select C. Blackmon Col – OF.  Pierce: "Lars is in the league?? When did that happen?"

Pick 90: Cowhide Joyride select D. Wright NYM - 3B. Adam: "Surprised he last this long. Wright isn't THAT old." Pierce:  “He is brittle though.”  Russ: “Not that good either.”

Pick 94:  Dave: “i'm not trading away draft picks this year. Fyi” Adam, noting the Yahoo real time standing projections: “Yahoo says you might as well give up Dave”

Pick 99: Mike: "I have the oldest team in the history of keeper leagues"

Pick 103: Following my Joc Pederson pick, Shomphe: "Playing possum on text adam, so sneaky." after I declined to share my infatuation with Joc when he text, asking about my thought on picking a young guy early. Private text from Shomphe: "You carpet-bagging SOB." Adam: “I didn't lie to you, just said most guys go safe.”

Pick 106: Dan: “woo hoo for not being drunk yet”

Pick 117: Prestige Worldwide select E. Hosmer KC - 1B.  Jason: “well Lars you are winning in that I won't be offering you trades for anyone you have picked thus far”. Lars: “THat was the best thing you could have ever said Jason.”

Pick 117: Adam: “I have a deep hatred for Hosmer due to my deep love for him”. Adam: “it’s complicated.”

Pick 120: Pierce: “can we get Casten back in for draft night?”

Pick 124: Dan: “what round is someone going to take a flyer on Aroid?” Adam: “Would fit Gibby's team focus”

Picke 140:  Donkey Punchers select L. Lynn StL – P. Adam: “Lynn is very good. And now has a changeup”. Russ: “Nice pick Chris I was thinking about him when i took cashner a while back.” Dagan: “he's fat.” Adam. “That's where the changeup comes from.” Gibby “and has an inside out vagina”

Pick 141: Donkey Punchers select D. Fister Was – P. Andrew: “doug fister fisted my sister”. Jason: “i am wondering if Anal's last statement is actually true”. Pierce: “knew a girl in college... we called her the fist.”  Kyle: “because she loved doug fister?”  Pierce: “always was assumed she could take a healthy mitt in the poon... wish we had evidence.  Jason: “Kyle Baker reminds me of a shorter Doug Fister”. Kyle: “I’ll take that.”  Dan: “back to these fisting pics...”

Pick 177: Dave: “I wonder what time it will be when we get to pick 247”

Pick 182: One Nut Wonders select D. Pompey Tor – OF. Andrew: “Pick 182, first guy I’ve never heard of.”

Pick 193: After glowing initial reviews about Shannon’s draft, Jason: “Adam are you almost done with the draft review? One Nut Wonders or are you going to re-title it ‘An Ode to Shannon?’” Adam: “Yup. Chris Shannon is a bad man.” Adam: “...and this is my year.” (calling my shot…)

Pick 194:  Donkey Punchers select A. Miller NYY – P.  Shannon: “and now I go to bed.” Chris’s only comment the entire draft.

Pick 214: Dagan: “what are you going to do adam?...  pitcher?... hitter?” Jason: “100% pitcher”. Jason “any bets?” Kyle: “util”.  Dagan: “starting pitcher”. Jason: “yes 100%:. Montezuma’s Revenge select M. Garza Mil – P. Dagan: “i saw that coming… nice pick.” Adam: “that was a lot of pressure guys thanks”

Pick 229: Prestige Worldwide select C. Granderson NYM – OF.  Jason: “damn you Lars…

you finally took someone I was targeting.”  Adam: “12.2 BB%”. Jason “is that good or bad?”. Adam: “Very good”. Jason: “haha, seriously had no clue”. Lars: “I love Adam with the obscure stats instantaniously when a guy is drafted!” Adam:  “Votto is17.3 …

10.0 is great.” Jason: “ya that was lightning fast”

Pick 268: After Adam and Dagan share adoration for Desmond Jennings, SGreene, Leake, AEscobar, Desclafani, RMartin, House, Jason:  “you guys should just fuck and get it over”.  Lars: “Seriously. Its a huge fantasy fuck-fest right now.”

Pick 269: Adam, who wanted TJ House: “When I started my spreadsheets this year, the first thing I did was look at K%+GB%+QS%-BB%”. Dagan: “that's quite a formula”. Jason: “when Dagan the professor says you have an elaborate formula you know you have a problem”

Pick 271: More Montezuma/Ring love, Dagan:  “my hitter rankings had Alex Gordon, Choo, and Moss as the top 3 aviailable”.  Adam “Mine was close to that.” Adam: “Let's make out.”

Pick 271: Gibby: “excited for choo, it gives me an asian boner”. Lars: “Asian boner = 2.5 inches… but the taste of soy sauce

Pick 286: Dave: “doh”. Cowhide Joyride select Á. Rodríguez NYY - 3B. Dagan: “i knew someone would bite on arod …could be useful.”

Pick 292:  One Nut Wonders select B. Buxton Min – OF. Dagan: “yes, jason drafted buxton again”. Jason: “i took Buxton in the 11th round last year. crazy he could fall this late in a league with a NA spot” Gibby: “he will end up trading Buxton and his 15th rd pick for my 24th and Uehara.” Jason: “i should get the pick upgrade in that deal Gibby”. Gibby: “I was taking him next pick”.  Jason: “Buxton would be well mentored on your team of vets”

Pick 294:  Gibby:  “I may be selling by June 1” (Try May 18^th)

Pick 297: Dagan: “i'm out guys. good draft… good luck to everyone except jason.” Jason: “champions like me don't need like”. Dagan: “you don't need ‘like’?”. Dagan: “ok.” “Ring of Fire left”

Pick 298: Prestige Worldwide select K. Gibson Min – P. Pierce “Kirk Gibson?” Pierce: “loved that guy”

Yahoo’s post-draft ranks: 

1          I Ate The Munchkins 

2          Moose is Loose!          

3          Anal Hershiser

4          Mike Ehrman-Trout   

5          The Angry Pirates       

6          Ring of Fire    

7          Donkey Punchers

8          One Nut Wonders      

9          Urban Achievers

10        Montezuma’s Revenge           

11        Keepin it REAL...      

12        Prestige Worldwide    

13        Cowhide Joyride         

14        Sexual Napalm           

Final Real Rankings

Weeks 19 & 20 Real Rankings

NOTES

- Weeks 19 and 20 were momentous in a number of ways as the top of the standings and bottom start to sort themselves out. First off, a down week for Montezuma’s coincided with a down week from Angry Pirates in Week 19, resulting in a relative wash at the top. One Nut failed to take advantage though, only mustering a two-game boost in the standings. Jason bounced back in a big way in Week 20 and finds himself in the running for the regular season championship, albeit a longshot. His gains were Kyle’s losses as the two faced off and Jason dominated, fueled by a 9 HR week from EE and a no hitter from Jake Arrieta. This time, the Revenge seized the opportunity and met Kyle’s 2-8-0 loss with a 7-3-0 win over MET, allowing me to jump into first by one game, with Jason sitting seven out. The three of us each play teams ranked 10^th or below in the standings, so anything could happen. Should be an interesting last week with $301.25 up for grabs for a regular season championship (second place gets $100). The Revenge has the tiebreaker. It would be my second straight regular season championship and would further secure my place as the Buffalo Bills of High & Tight.

- Ring, MET, and Moose (0.5 games out) are fighting for two spots, with Keepin (5.5 games out) still holding an outside change. Prestige technically still has a shot at 7.5 games out, but given the team’s decline and a tough matchup, it seems highly unlikely. Yes, Urban still has a shot technically as well at 9.5 games out, but still not sure that is statistically possible.

- Once a fringe playoff team, Anal has secured a spot in the final 8 after going 14-5-1 the last two weeks, employing the first ever majority-RP strategy. Perhaps he’s on to something? 

- Incredibly, despite 8 playoff spots, the only matchup among current playoff teams this week is Donkey vs. MET. Russ is looking to jump into the postseason fray for a final championship run after an up and down season.

- Again, let me know if you think you have a person that could take over the open spot. I believe we have three candidates at the moment. Please let me know if you think you will not be in the league next year so we can plan accordingly. 

- While the standings are close, the Real Rankings show a blowout at the top as a late surge has the Revenge at 5.66 and One Nut in second at 6.02, supplanting the Pirates, who’ve had a rough go lately and fell below second for the first time all season. In fact, over the last four games, Kyle’s squad is only 9^th in RR at 7.4. Meanwhile, Jason and me have been on the upward swing. The real interesting movement has been Pierce, whose 6.4 over the last four weeks should have yielded better results than 18-19-3, but he’s had a tough run of competition and still has an outside shot at a pretty epic come back.

LAST 4

1              Montezuma's Revenge 4.3

2              One Nut Wonders           4.9

3              Ring of Fire                         6.0

4              Keepin it REAL...               6.4

5              Mike Ehrman-Trout        6.9

6              I Ate The Munchkins      7.1

7              Moose is Loose!               7.1

8              Anal Hershiser                   7.3

9              The Angry Pirates            7.4

10           Donkey Punchers            7.9

11           Sexual Napalm                  8.0

12           Cowhide Joyride              8.2

13           Urban Achievers              8.4

14           Prestige Worldwide        9.5

- Meanwhile, the RR show they are not impenetrable in terms of statistical anomolies as Cowhide contines to have a much better overall showing in the RR than the actual standings. It is all but a certainty that bad luck caused the Joyride to miss the playoffs this year.

- Just need to reiterate the importance of setting lineups. You don’t need to pick up double-starts or even attempt to better position your team for next year, but you do need to set your lineups every day. At the very least, make sure your starters are starting when they’re supposed to. With such a tight race, one team’s apathy can easily squash another team’s chances at the playoffs or money. I will impose fines this week without warning.

- Since some teams will not be reading this going forward, please take a few minutes to consider potential changes/improvements for next year. It’s always good to jot these down before the offseason so we remember what to address in the winter. I don’t have much on my end. I think the easing of the trade restrictions were an improvement and that the S+H  category was the best decision the league has made since we agreed to allow draft pick trades. I would like to continue to consider ways to provide more incentive for teams to stick it out to the end, perhaps by determining the draft order in a reverse standings of non-playoff teams – so 9^th place (the best non-playoff team) would get the first pick and the last place team would get the 6^th pick. Open to ideas. I think we have enough interest to expand again if people are interest, but that really starts to water down the pool. Expanding the NA slot maybe. Anyway, share your thoughts if you have them.

Trade Review Part III

One Nut receives:

Kendrys Morales KC - 1B

17^th rounder

Cowhide receives:

OF Josh Hamilton TEX – OF

16^th rounder

This is the kind of trade that makes other contending teams cringe. Morales hasn’t helped much since he was acquired, but Hamilton is on the DL and really wasn’t all that great as it was, so Jason would’ve dropped him for someone off the wire eventually. Giving up one round is essentially the equivalent of picking someone up off the wire, except that person happens to be fifth in the league in RBIs. Morales could be a real difference maker if he continues his quiet production and could effectively slowly kill another contender in the playoffs without them ever realizing it. For Dave, well, screw that guy.

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MET receives:

Wilson Ramos Was - C

Round 16

Angry Pirates receives:

Yan Gomes Cle - C

Round 20

Really don’t see how Yan is worth four rounds. He was a great find last year and is better than his 25/8/31/0/.268 line he has posted in an injury-riddle season, but so is Ramos, whose 31/9/49/0/.264 line makes it look like there really didn’t need to be much of an exchange of picks here. Ramos has almost 100 more abs and Gomes as been better lately, so I guess there’s that. But I just don’t see why Gomes is worth four pretty crucial rounds (all but three players drafted in the 20^th were dropped from their original team this year – Sano, Volquez, Segura). Two rounds? Sure, I guess. I still like JT Realmuto and Miguel Montero better than both Ramos and Gomes, and they’re just chilling out there on the wire free of charge. For someone with  a draft board with as many holes as Kyle does, this didn’t really help.

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Prestige receives:

Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B

One Nut receives:

Edwin Encarnación Tor - 1B

This deadline has brought about a wide range of trades and this is no different – a rare one-for-one swap of keepers with no picks involved! In this case, the deal makes sense for both teams and I really don’t have an issue with either side. What Freeman lacks in supporting cast and power he makes up for in youth and improving skills. He’ll get to 100/30/100/.380 in the near future, while EE makes Jason’s already stellar team even better as he joins the roster in the midst of one of his patent hot streaks. His numbers aren’t far away from Bautista’s despite the up and down season. So with EE, Morales, Ellsbury, and Maybin, Jason’s offense is as diverse and potent as his pitching staff and well-positioned to take on Angry and Montezuma’s in the fight to the finish line. The beauty of Jason is every year we talk about the picks he gives up and every year we talk about his playoff push.

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Ring receives:

Francisco Liriano Pit - P

Round 22

Round 23

One Nut receives:

Round 12

Round 17

Now, this move I like for Jason.  Sixteen rounds is a nice boost in draft picks that helps negate some of the losses from the MadBum deal. That said, I don’t know how he does this as often as he does. No one in the league is more willing to deal a high quality player if he believes he’s getting enough value – even when he’s contending. It’s risky though. Liriano has gone on stretches of dominance that could really boost a team going against some potent opponents. Jason’s strength has been his rotation and he added Bumgarner to the Arrieta/Archer/Cueto monster, but it forces him to potentially rely on Derek Holland and/or Drew Smyly coming off the DL.  Then there’s guys like Karns, Buehrle, and Hammel who don’t have stellar track records, while Jaime Garcia has pitched like an ace, but the injury history makes it a little more risky. I couldn’t do it, but Jason has proven to be much less risk-averse than anyone in the league.

Dagan may have paid a little more than market value here because he was dealing with a fellow contender, but at this point there were few top pitching options available and Liriano (154/3.35/1.13/16) immediately becomes his best pitcher.  He’s not your typical ace, but Richards, Odorizzi, Nova, and Iwakuma offer a potentially very good veteran group to go with young guns Heaney, Jungman, and ERod. I don’t know if he makes the difference, but he certainly elevates the potential for a good enough week to make it through a round of the playoffs. Overall though, Dagan really needed a bit more to balance his staff with his stellar offense. This may have been too little too late.

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Prestige receives:

Devon Travis Tor - 2B DL

A.J. Ramos Mia - P

Erasmo Ramírez TB - P

Matt Shoemaker LAA - P NA

Round 7

Round 15

Montezumas receives:

David Ortiz Bos - 1B

Trevor Rosenthal StL - P

Cole Hamels Tex - P

Gio González Was - P

Round 21

Round 22

As the week dragged on and it became abundantly clear my top-seeded 2014 team was going to lose to an 8 seed in the first round – ending the once promising dream of my first H&T championship, I started to question some of my moves heading into the playoffs. I thought I had been aggressively smart. Turns out, I was stupid. I had opportunities to deal with Dagan for the likes of Arrieta, Shields, Kemp, and Bailey, but I hemmed and hawed and nit-picked and tried to save a couple rounds here and there. I let it linger long enough for Jason to swoop in and blow me out of the water with 35 rounds for all four – a seemingly nutso offer that I chided and mocked. All while Jason rode off into the sunset with his third H&T championship and I sat home holding my junk and clinging to the all-time highest regular season winning-percentage.

The lessons of that open trading period were not lost on me as we entered the 2015 open trading period. Though it pained me to see the glaring holes appear in my draft board and still liked a lot of the guys I traded away, I didn’t want to regret not making a bold move. Hamels is still a stud even if his era is a little inflated compared to past years. He’s consistently at 200 ip and 200 k with a great whip. His 162 game average for his career is 223 ip with 213 k and a 3.31/1.15, with surprisingly little fluctuation and only minor injury history. Texas in the summer is a little different than the NL east, but still a worthwhile add who is vast improvement to my staff. Rosenthal is a highend RP thanks to his team’s contending status, while Papi has turned around his season and is the 4^th overall rated player in Yahoo over the past 30 days with a crazy 21/10/30/.440 line in 98 abs. He sends a struggling Joc to my bench most days. Gio is not the Gio of old, but he’s still a pretty good Gio and bring high upside potential to each start. That 1.44 whip is no good and potential for BB-filled blowups, along with Salazar and TRoss, make for potential disaster. But the WHIP is well above recent year totals of 1.13, 1.25, and 1.20 since 2012, so perhaps he’s due for a correction. Kudos to Lars for making a couple moves before the deadline to help out for next year

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Cowhide receives:

Odubel Herrera Phi - 2B,SS,OF

Henry Owens Bos - P

Round 10

Round 14

Angry Pirates receives:

Dexter Fowler ChC - OF

Michael Pineda NYY - P DL

Round 22

Round 24

As much as I like and respect Kyle (especially since I’m sitting behind him in the standings), I am wondering about some of the moves to improve his team. David Price I understand obviously, but there’s some pretty meaningful question marks with the rest of the guys he acquired – like whether ARod can continue to stay healthy and productive, whether Jimmy Nelson is really making the next leap to third tier starter, is Yan Gomes any better than Wilson Ramos? The main question with this trade is whether Fowler and Pineda are worth 22 rounds. I’d say the answer is pretty clearly no. QS is a big thing for a reliable starter and Pineda has only converted 10 of his 19 starts to QS, namely because he can’t last six innings, which is funny because he doesn’t walk many and has a very nice 1.22 whip. The problem is he gets into problems. Without watching his starts, his 3.97 era, low whip, and inability to get to 6 innings suggests he’s prone to bad innings. His xFIP is actually stellar at 2.79, which, at a full run (and then some) lower than his era, implicates a sever lack of luck. The BABIP of .338 confirms the lack of luck, as it is a nearly 60 points off his career BABIP of .280. And the 23.9 K% and 3.1 BB% is also excellent. He’s a good pitcher. He could potentially be great. But there’s something about him that seems to be holding him back… Ahh, there it is:  the one season he pitched more than 170 innings (including minors) was the season before he ripped apart his shoulder. He missed all of 2012, only pitched 40 innings in 2013, then strained another shoulder muscle in 2014. This year, he started off great before heading to the DL with a forearm strain in the end of July. If we like Fowler (79/13/35/17/.348) but know there was little competition for his services given the glut of offensive options available in trade, exactly what portion of that 22 rounds was Pineda? He’s making a rehab start this week and he may be pretty good upon his return, but he wasn’t that good before he was injured and he simply cannot be kept due to the ongoing health issues. Perhaps this is just indicative of the market for quality SPs, but I just don’t think he is worth the number of rounds – specifically, not one of the restricted picks. Kyle traded 55 rounds during the open trading period and only has two picks in the first 9 rounds of the draft next year. He’s in the driver seat for the regular season title. I just wonder if those rounds could’ve been utilized better.

Dave, meanwhile, made off like a bandit and effectively sold off his roster in impressive fashion – even better than Gibby actually. Dave has no picks after Round 16 and has double picks in every one of the first nine rounds except the third and sixth, including two firsts and two seconds. Masterful work. With a good group of keepers including Altuve, Posey, Wacha, and Xander, Dave just needs a couple good keepers with some power and he will be set to compete in 2016.