Thursday, August 28, 2014

Open Trading Period Trade Reviews (Alternate)


TEAMS RECEIVE TOTAL RNDS ASSESSMENT WINNER
Anal Hershiser Ryan Howard Phi - 1B  2 Ryan Howard is on pace for over 100 rbis with a .307 OBP and is being replaced by a guy who is on pace for 85 rbis and a .373 obp, so the trade off is RBI for OBP. Given the state of the Phillies and Nationals, you're more likely to see LaRoche playing and driving in RBI going forward, as well as getting on base. Both have the ability to be very streaky. LaRoche has been better over the last 30, so makes sense. Keepin. Good upgrade, minimal sacrifice.

Round 17
Keepin it REAL Adam LaRoche Was - 1B 

Round 19
Anal Hershiser Dan Straily ChC - P NA  3 Classic deadline closer deal. Janssen has good overall numbers, but has more BS than S in the last month. The oft-injured closer is tough to rely on, but makes sense for a team not wanting to fully committ to a run in 2014. Even

Round 17
Moose is Loose Casey Janssen Tor - P 

Round 20
Urban Achievers Charlie Morton Pit - P DL  3 Dan Haren is just a pretty name on Hector Noesi's body. Not worth a roster spot and certainly not worth trading for. Urban. 

Round 15
Keepin it REAL Dan Haren LAD - P 

Round 18 
The Angry Pirates   Joe Nathan Det - P  5 Great move by Dave to get one of the best closers in the league for a late round upgrade. Even though he still has a job for one of the best teams, Nathan has been a mess all season. You have to wonder if they ultimately go to Soria. Of course, Koji has sucked since Dave got him. Still, makes a lot of sense. Now, just need the Sox to win. Cowhide

 Round 15 
Cowhide Joyride   Koji Uehara Bos - P 

 Round 20 
Mike Ehrman-Trout    Round 15 Round 16  6 Classic case of the deadline looming and a team getting what value they could. Shomphe delivers with a  steal for a guy who has been pretty dominant over the last 30 and hasn't had a bad start since early July. Surprised there was more action on him. Munchkins. I'm sure Russ wanted more.
I Ate The Munchkins   Chris Archer TB - P 

 Round 18 Round 19
Montezuma's Revenge   Starling Marte Pit - OF 
Lost years from Choo and Fernandez make this a potential boon for Dan. Choo went 20/20 last year with a .420 OBP in 2013 and should be better with a healthy year in Texas next season. While JoFern may not be back until the all-star break, he's worth waiting for and young enough to be a maintstay in Dan's team for the next decade. Marte, meanwhile, is only on pace for 72/10/52/31/.343 due to some injuries. He's only 25 with emerging power, so he's got keeper potential. He's been hot since coming off the DL and is the #1 overall player in the last 14. Urban. Short term may be in my favor, but Dan wins long term. 

 Round 21 
Urban Achievers   Shin-Soo Choo Tex - OF  4

José Fernández Mia - P DL 

 Round 17 
Donkey Punchers   Tommy Medica SD - 1B,OF  6 The pick was a high one to give up, but is ultimately only six rounds. The guys Dave received are mostly short-term hot hitters and young unproven pitcher. That said, its what Dave need as he tries to secure a playoff spot. Wong was dropped and Aoki is just OK, but Hendricks has been outstanding. In the end though, this is huge boon for Dave becasue of Mesoraco. The former first round draft pick is on pace for 52/25/80/1/.345 in 392 abs.  Give him 550 abs, and thats a pace of 72/35/112. That's not just a keeper, that might be the top catcher in fantasy next year. Cowhide. Mesoraco's long-term potential is worth far more than 6 rounds.

Matt Adams StL - 1B 

Jenrry Mejía NYM - P 

Trevor Bauer Cle - P 

 Round 9
Cowhide Joyride   Devin Mesoraco Cin - C 

Kolten Wong StL - 2B 

Nori Aoki KC - OF 

Kyle Hendricks ChC - P 

 Round 15
Mike Ehrman-Trout   Stephen Vogt Oak - C,1B,OF  14 Im sure Russ never envisioned such a unceremonious end to CarGo's long, distinguished tenure with his squad. But injuries continue to be an issue and Russ has better options. It made sense for Moose to take a shot at CarGo, who was expected to return at that point. It was a risk for 2014 and now he won't be returning.  But Brian still gets a nice keeper, despite his brittleness. JD has had a nice season, but is coming back to earth a bit and is bound to remember he's JD Martinez at some point. MET. Brian took a shot, but the injury was a risk that isn't going to payoff this year.

Jeff Locke Pit - P 

 Round 9 Round 18
Moose is Loose!   J.D. Martínez Det - OF 

Carlos González Col - OF DL 

 Round 20 Round 21
Ring of Fire   Jake Peavy SF - P  2 Peavy has been pretty good since joining SF. Actually, he's been better than Hudson, whose lack of K upside limits his overall value. So while Hudson may have better numbers earlier in the season, its all about what he'll do in the future.  Ring. Got the picks and the better pitcher.

 Round 18
Keepin it REAL...   Tim Hudson SF - P 

 Round 20
Anal Hershiser   Justin Morneau Col - 1B  14 I really didn't understand this one. A second round pick is a lot to give up when the best player you're receiving is Josh Harrison. He's nice. I like him, even offered a couple rounds for him. But he's not as good as he was playing at the time of the trade and was not worth anywhere close to this much. If the Pirates believed in him so little that they spent the season struggling to find him regular at bats, there is little reason to believe he will become anything more than a serviceable UTIL type. Meanwhile, the closers were anything but stable in Mejia and Nathan. I actually would have preferred Janssen, who was dealt to Anal in the deal (and later dealt for three rounds). And Chris Young is Chris Young, who isn't bad but he's not this good either. He's a good end of the rotation type, but that's it. I don't hate the guys Dave got, but I don't like the price he paid. Anal. I'm sure Andrew got much more than he expected.

Casey Janssen Tor - P 

Chris Capuano NYY - P 

Rubby De La Rosa Bos - P 

 Round 8 Round 17
Cowhide Joyride   Josh Harrison Pit - 2B,3B,OF 

Joe Nathan Det - P 

Jenrry Mejía NYM - P 

Chris Young Sea - P 

 Round 18  Round 21
Urban Achievers   Danny Salazar Cle - P  12 In my search for guys displaying good underlying stats over the last 30 days, Porcello burst to the surface as a guy who could definitely help down the stretch. He has the occasional stinker and is never a big K guy, but he regularly works deep into games and can be dominant with excellent control. Meanwhile, Stroman was a bit of a wildcard as he's a rookie potentially looking at innings cap, but who has a rare blend of control and tremendous secondary stuff to warrant a flyer. He's awarded me with 10 er in 5.2 innings, bringing his era from 3.34 to 4.11. That's what you get when you gamble on rookies. Urban. Probably got double what he would have had the trade been executred closer to the deadline

David Buchanan Phi - P 

 Round 15 Round 16 
Montezuma's Revenge   Rick Porcello Det - P 

Marcus Stroman Tor - P 

 Round 21 Round 22
One Nut Wonders   Matt Kemp LAD - OF 
This trade was just so Jason, it's perfect. In an effort to gather the greatest collection of names, Jason effectively topedoed his 2015 draft. 35 rounds is by far the most ever exchanged in a single trade but the return was lackluster, in my opinion. Shields is not James Shields of two years ago. He is Mike Leake. Really, check out the numbers:  7.1 K/9, 3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 18 QS for Shields, 7.0 K/9, 3.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 15 QS for Leake -- almost identical. Dagan could've gave him Leake and my guess is it would've cost a lot less. That lousy K/9 is also not far from Homer Bailey's 7.7 -- down almost a full point from his breakout 2013, while his ERA is a pedestrian 4.17 and his BB/9 is approaching 3.0. Maybe the recent injury (he hasn't pitched an inning for Jason) was reason for the performance. And Matt Kemp? He's just not good anymore. He was great before the trade, which worked out very well for Dagan because he struggled (.262 obp) since Jason got him. He's on pace for a 66/19/76/9/.342 season in 530 abs. Nothing special. That resume sure is nice to look at, but it doesn't help your cause in 2014. The one guy I really liked and tried to get, but obviously fell short in terms of compensation, was Arrieta, whose breakout season is tremendous and 100% legit. Compounding all this further is Jason's failure to recognize Collin McHugh is a pretty good pitcher and its not just the underlying stats saying that.  Ring. And its not close. Jason's got two rings and he made some good trades. This is not one of them.

Homer Bailey Cin - P DL 

Jake Arrieta ChC - P 

James Shields KC - P 

 Round 21 Round 22 Round 23 Round 24
Ring of Fire   Ángel Pagán SF - OF  35

Charlie Blackmon Col - OF 

Collin McHugh Hou - P 

Brett Anderson Col - P DL 

 Round 8 Round 14 Round 16 Round 17
Keepin it REAL...   Matt Carpenter StL - 2B,3B  10 Matt Carpenter played well over his head in 2013 and has come back to life this year. Life is pretty good though and he's the best unspectacular player you'll find in an OBP league. He doesn't hurt you anywhere and he contributes significantly in runs and OBP. If we were in a wins league, Peralta would've received much more attention but his 6.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 make it less fun to watch, while 4.39 xFIP suggests the 3.61 ERA is due for some correction. Morton got hurt shortly after, but was a nice get at the time. Overall, for the quality received, Pierce did quite well for only 10 rounds. Keepin. Carp was probably worth 8 rounds alone

Charlie Morton Pit - P DL 

Wily Peralta Mil - P 

 Round 15 Round 16
Donkey Punchers   Nori Aoki KC - OF 

Erick Aybar LAA - SS 

Jonathan Broxton Cin - P 

 Round 10 Round 11
I Ate The Munchkins   Jesse Hahn SD - P  2 Its not a big sacrifice, but before he was injured Hahn was nearing his innings cap and is now sitting in the minors. Nice, unexpected year for the kid but not anyone worth trading for. Donkey

 Round 16 
Donkey Punchers    Round 14
Mike Ehrman-Trout   Starlin Castro ChC - SS  23 This is a pretty good trade with Hanley bringing Russ back a resurgent Castro and 23 rounds, including a third rounder. Hanley went on the DL, but its hard to blame Gibby for taking a shot at a guy who ended last season with some huge numbers while selling another guy who was basically worthless last year. Hanley is active again and could be key to Gibby's playoff push, while Castro and the rest of the baby Cubs struggle to score runs. Gee and Minor are a wash really, other than Minor is more volatile. Gee's 3.84 ERA and 6.3 K/9 won't help much, but they shouldn't hurt too much either. MET. Lots of rounds and a good keeper to boot.

Mike Minor Atl - P 

 Round 9 Round 13
Sexual Napalm   Hanley Ramírez LAD - SS DL 

Dillon Gee NYM - P 

 Round 22 Round 23
The Angry Pirates   Todd Frazier Cin - 1B,3B  10 Part of Jason's roster revision included sending off one of his best hitters, a surprise monster in Todd Frazier, and 10 rounds for a big-time slugger, a certified ace (for 2014 anyway), and an emerging corner infielder. For Kyle, I'm not a big fan because I just don't like Adam Jones that much in an OBP league. He's certainly a keeper and a great player who looks in line to get to his second straight 100/30/100 season. However, he's not stealing anymore (just 6) and his OBP is a dreadful .313. His career OBP is similar. Bautista provides all of that but with a great OBP. Jones is four years younger, but when you factor in Frazier's lack of track record and Cueto's dominance, you just would've expected a bit more in draft picks than 10 rounds. I actually also like Arenado a bit more than Frazier as a keeper, but that might just be me. Frazier is on pace for 88/27/83/21/.339, which is incredible and immensely valuable. I just wonder if this is the peak, at age 28. One Nut. Jason gets better for this year and next in my opinion.

Adam Jones Bal - OF 

Mark Buehrle Tor - P 

 Round 11
One Nut Wonders   José Bautista Tor - 1B,OF 

Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 

Johnny Cueto Cin - P 

 Round 21
I Ate The Munchkins   Yoenis Céspedes Bos - OF 
Shomphe hasn't had many missteps since his drafting debacles, but I think this one can classify as a mistake. It's just too much to give up for Yoenis. I know he's got great potential in Boston and perhaps a walk year really motivates him, but Latos is no throwaway and Feliz is just a replacement RP at this point given the Rangers lack of ability to win. In reality, I think a fair trade would've been maybe 5 rounds. So 15, going from the last round to the the third round, is a lot to give up. Hopefully he flourishes next year and will certainly be a lot of fun to watch, but still a lot to give up. One Nut. Jason cashes in on the Boston boost.

Neftali Feliz Tex - P 

 Round 24 
One Nut Wonders   Mat Latos Cin - P  15

 Round 9
The Angry Pirates   Giancarlo Stanton Mia - OF  10 Now that is a blockbuster. When you get down to it, it’s a great deal for both teams. Shomphe gets decidedly better in the RP and SP categories, while only take a modest hit in the young OF with upside department.  Kyle gets what might be the #2 player in all of fantasy baseball next season and a good 10 round upgrade. The only issue I have with the trade is Anibal hasn't been the picture of health this season, so I'd prefer someone a little more reliable. But when he's healthy, he can be a legit #2 on any staff. And Chris already has like five #2s, so this could be a significant addition. Even. Rare given the names involved, but I liked it for both.

Lorenzo Cain KC - OF 

Brandon Workman Bos - P 

 Round 10
I Ate The Munchkins   Yasiel Puig LAD - OF 

Craig Kimbrel Atl - P 

Anibal Sánchez Det - P DL 

 Round 20
Donkey Punchers   Dayan Viciedo CWS - OF  14 I fully admit to giving up a lot here considering this is the only first rounder dealt in the past two years, but I also have no regrets. I identified Holliday and Cobb as the two primary targets among non-contenders (Dagan not included at that point) as both started to emerge after good-not-great seasons so far. This was compounded by the fact that Gibby, my closest competition, was also looking at the same guys. Chris Shannon expertly negotiated with both of us and once I found that out, it turned into as much of a defensive move as offensive. So I won him over and have no regrets considering the success rate of first rounders (Cespedes, Sanchez, Zobrist, PAlvarez, Latos, Jennings, Mauer, Hamilton, Shields, Butler just this year) and Cobb's dominance since he was acquired. In the end, the return was two mid round picks and the sacrifice was well worth the return. Donkey. Chris played this one well and cashed in.

Kevin Gausman Bal - P 

 Round 7 Round 12
Montezuma's Revenge   Matt Holliday StL - OF 

Alex Cobb TB - P 

 Round 16 Round 17
The Angry Pirates  Manny Machado Bal - 3B DL  7 Machado really is just a name right now. He's exciting and flashy with the glove, sure, but his bat still leaves something to be desired.  A .313 obp, 10 steals, 33 homers in 1,185 career at bats just doesn't inspire much confidence that he becomes something special. He is only 22, so Kyle has that going for him, but he might just end up peaking as a really good player and not a every year keeper. Given the numbers, its a risk to keep him. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray looks every bit the part of a keeper. He hasn't struggled at all in 235 ips in his carrer and has 210 Ks and a 2.91/1.18 in that time. He's just 24 and getting better, so -- even though he seems destined to get TJS eventually as every young pitcher seems to do these days -- I like him better than Machado. Meanwhile, VMart has been incredible this year, maybe the draft pick of the year. Burnett is a serviceable, volatile piece. Sexual. Need more from Manny to make me believe.

Yohan Pino Min - P NA 

Jason Hammel Oak - P 

 Round 17
Sexual Napalm  Víctor Martínez Det - 1B 

A.J. Burnett Phi - P 

Sonny Gray Oak - P 

 Round 24
Montezuma's Revenge  Clay Buchholz Bos - P  3 Just a situation where I know I wanted to upgrade a position and was trying to sell off the incumbent rather than give him away in a swap. Beckett was among the best FA pickups of the year, but his hip problems caused his season to derail after the All Star break. Jason grabbed him for very little and ultimately had to drop him as he went on the DL indefinitely.  Montezumas. Something for nothing.

 Round 20
One Nut Wonders   Josh Beckett LAD - P DL 

 Round 23
One Nut Wonders   Fernando Rodney Sea - P 
Standard closer trade for fair value.  One Nut. Five rounds is the right price, but the difference between 23 and 18 isn't much

 Round 23
Urban Achievers   Jake Petricka CWS - P  5

 Round 18
Cowhide Joyride   Mark Melancon Pit - P 
Dave didn't give up a lot in this deal and didn't even trade any of his restricted picks, but I think it was a misuse of assets. Janssen has struggled and Dickey just isn't the guy we saw two years ago. He's the same guy from the rest of his career, which is a good QS guy who occasionally dominates and occasionally gets creamed. The volatility is difficult to stomach even if the end results don't look bad. Melancon is pretty good, so he was worth 3-4 rounds, a couple for Janssen I suppose, and Dickey was worth 5 or so. Pretty even, but I just think Dave could've been more aggressive given the players that were available. Even.

Casey Janssen Tor - P 

R.A. Dickey Tor - P 

 Round 19 Round 20
Urban Achievers   Allen Craig Bos - 1B,OF DL 

Junichi Tazawa Bos - P  10

Brad Ziegler Ari - P 

 Round 14 Round 15
One Nut Wonders   Andrew Cashner SD - P DL 
Smart move by Jason that sort of set the market in terms of single players. Of course, his presence on the DL makes it a little difficult to evaluate. His first start was OK. If he can be who he was most of last year, this is a great addition by Jason given the lateness of the pick.  One Nut. Could go sour given injury history, but a worthwhile shot.

 Round 24
Mike Ehrman-Trout   Edinson Vólquez Pit - P  9

 Round 15
I Ate The Munchkins   Brett Lawrie Tor - 2B,3B DL 
It all timed up so well. Shomphe had a need at 2B with Phillips down, I was ready to move forward with FA Headley, and was looking for minor draft pick upgrade for a young talent coming back from a broken hand. He actually returned the day the trade went through and looked to show off more of that emerging power. Then, oblique injury  two days later. Timing is everything.  Montezumas. Rather be lucky than good.

 Round 21
Montezuma's Revenge    Round 16 5

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