Monday, May 12, 2014

Trade Review: Angry and One Nut


One Nut receives:
2B Jason Kipnis CLE
OF Adam Eaton CWS
SP Juan Nicasio COL
17th rounder

Angry receives:
SP Johnny Cueto CIN
SP Drew Hutchinson TOR
23rd rounder


Ugh. I don't understand this one for either team really.

It's worse for Kyle though, as he continues to perpetuate the perception of being Jason's farm team. Kipnis is a top 20 overall player and an injury did nothing to change that. Johnny Cueto is a streaky starter, who can be dominant at times, but who has only exceeded 200 ip once in six year career and whose 7.2 K/9 is mediocre at best. It can be dangerous dealing for players who have been dominant over short sample sizes and have established track records because it is highly probably they regress back to their historical norms -- meaning Kyle may have acquired Cueto's downfall and sold low on Kipnis' upswing. It may surprise you to know that Kipnis is only one year older than Cueto, who, at 28, could certainly fits the profile of a keeper if he keeps it up. But he won't be a potential five-category stud at a premium position like Kipnis. As I noted when I called Cueto one of my worst picks, he's very talented but scout hate the twist in his delivery that has caused oblique issue in the past. Hutchinson is a great story and one of the best Mr. Irrelevant's we've seen in H&T draft history, but he has an even longer injury history. He's talented, but he lets up a lot of fly balls. If he stays healthy, he's got a legit shot at 200 ks. But that's a huge if. A staff lead by Sonny Gray, Anibal Sanchez, and Shelby Miller can compete in this league with some decent guys behind him. This does make the staff better, but that's a huge hit on offense and Kyle should've got more. And how did that pick swap get in there? Jeez. That's essentially giving Jason another player.

From a pure value standpoint, Jason did well. And while I know pitching can be acquired as teams drop out of it, you still have to be relevant in those categories until that point. A staff lead by Liriano, Buehrle, Chavez and Volquez isn't the lease bit intimidating. With Melancon as his only closer - and that's temporary - he could go weeks without a win in the pitching categories. He certainly has the offensive firepower to acquire some pitching and Lord knows he's not afraid to trade, so he's the obvious winner here in my mind as the overall value of his team increases. But I wouldn't wait long because that top spot in the standings could go away quickly with a bunch of 5-5-0 weeks.




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