Week 4 Real Rankings

Notes

• Lets talk about me - crazy week. 2.4 is easily the best output for any team in a single week so far. It's the second highest in two years, with only Mike's 2.2 in Week 9 of 2013 exceeding it. My team was able to come in first in hitting (2.8) and pitching (2.0) for the week. Meanwhile 16 homers was six more than the next best team, thanks largely to Jose Abreu, who is on pace for 58 hr and 175 rbis. Just one of those weeks you never want to stop.
• Little more about me - If you remove the SB category, my real  rank would've been 1.6. And if I started both Salazar and Richards on Sunday, I would have ended the week first in every category besides QS (2nd) and steals (10th) and ended the week with a 2.0. If Braun didn't hit one of my few basestealers in the head with a bat on Saturday, that number could've been even better.
• Pierce took a slight hit this week, with a 3-6-1 loss to Dave but continues to be in the top 3 in the standings and bottom 3 in the Real Rankings.
• Mike had an insane week on the basepaths with 16 stolen bases. Ironically, cruelly, that was about 15 more than he needed to win the category from Shomphe, who had 0 stolen bases.
• As you can see by the first third column in the overall rankings, there's still some injustice in terms of the correlation between the Real and actual rankings, but an incredible 8 of the teams are in the same position in both rankings. Statistically speaking, that's rather remarkable after only four weeks.
• After weeks of seeing his hitting outproduce his pitching by leaps and bounds, Shomphe's hitting came in last for the week (12.4) while his pitching came in second (4.8).
• Lots of lopsided victories this week, with all victors except Andrew (5-4-1 over Russ) getting at least 7 wins.
• Of the losers, Lars had the best Real Rank at 8.2, which was only 0.6 less than Jason's 7.6 for the week. Except Lars play Brian and got 1 win and Jason player Dan on a bad week and got 7 wins. For a team down in its luck, another tough break for Lars, who has a better Real Ranking than Pierce but rest 11 spots below him in the actual standings.
• While I may be ragging on Pierce, it would be disingenuous for me not to point out his pitching staff put together a 1.69/0.96 for the week. However, he lost to Dave in saves and Ks and tied in QS. Its an interesting example of the difficult balance in how to structure a roster. Pierce only has six starters, two closers, and a setup guy, while rostering four bench bats. Meanwhile, Dave has eight starters, three closers, and one setup guy. Both have less starters than many other teams, but for this week, Dave's relative excess made the difference. That is why you see so few starting pitchers available on the wire. A large group of mediocre guys can win you three categories (QS, SV, K). A small group of excellent guys can win you two categories (ERA, WHIP). Teams that have a large group of excellent guys tend to dominate this league, but it is extremely hard to do.

Week 3 Real Rankings

Few notes 3 weeks in:

• Keeping in mind the small sample size, it is interesting to see the person with the poorest draft position (Jason) on top of both the standings and the Real Rankings while the person with the best draft position (Dave) is last in both. Still lots of time for this to change, but if it keeps up, it provides further ammo for those feeling the inkling to burn through all their picks for a championship run this year. Might just be worth it! 
• Jason had the best single week so far this year at 3.1. However, being buoyed by the likes of Charlie Blackmon, Jesse Chavez, and Edinson Volquez makes me question the long-term viability here.
• The Real Rankings suggest Pierce is getting by with smoke and mirros, with the 12th best overall Real Ranking and the second best record.
• Looking at volatility, Dagan's team is a bit of a mystery, going from second-to-last in Week 2 to second overall in Week 3.
• Last year at this point, overall, Russ was first, Andrew second, and Pierce in third.
• Top 15 overall players through April 24th. Interesting divide among types. Shows you how important keepers, the draft, and midseason pickups are.

1. OF Charlie Blackmon COL (Jason) - FA
2. OF Giancarlo Stanton MIA (Shomphe) - Keeper
3. SP Adam Wainright (Shannon) - Keeper
4. 1B Albert Pujols LAA (Dan) - Keeper
5. SP Johnny Cueto (Jason) - 3rd round
6. SS Alexei Ramirez CHW (Shomphe) - 6th round
7. SS Troy Tulowitski COL (Brian) - Keeper
8. SP Felix Hernandez SEA (Shomphe) - Jason keeper
9. SP Aaron Harang ATL (Lars) - FA
10. OF Ryan Braun MIL (Jason) - Chris keeper
11. SP Jose Fernandez (Adam) - Keeper
12. OF Mike Trout LAA (Russ) - Keeper
13. 1B Jose Abreu CHW (Adam) - 1st round
14. OF Nelson Cruz BAL (Dave) - 5th round
15. SP Martin Perez (Shannon) - 13th round
16. OF Melky Cabrera TOR (Shomphe) - FA
17. RP Francisco Rodriguez MIL (Adam) - FA
18. SP Mark Buehrle TOR (Jason) - FA
19. OF Chris Colabello MIN (Andrew) - FA
20. OF Michael Brantley CLE (Dave) - 9th round

TOTALS
Keepers: 8
Draft picks:  6
Free agents: 6

Week 2 Real Rankings

Trade Review: One Nut and Munchkins

One Nut Wonders receives:

OF Ryan Braun MIL

I Ate Munchkins receives:

SP Felix Hernandez SEA

SP Ervin Santana ATL

Great to see a legit trade so early in the season. I’m not sure we have ever seen a trade like this with so few games played (last year’s Valverde for 3 rounds doesn’t qualify).  In this case, it makes a lot of sense for both teams but one team is taking considerable amount more risk than the other.

From Jason’s perspective, he gets a unique talent who is capable of being the top overall player in fantasy. And, in reality, he probably comes at a discount. But there’s a reason for that. Thumbs are funny things. You don’t think much of them until you can’t use them, or as is the case with Braun, he can’t feel them. Nerve issues can be big problems for players because so much of what they do is reliant on feel and touch as opposed to brute strength, which can be compensate for. Other than a 3 run, 3 homer, 7 rbi day against the Phillies on April 8^th, he hasn’t done much (9/3/10/2/.291). Then you have the whole little matter where he got caught with PEDs and presumably isn’t taking them anymore, thus potentially deflating like a balloon.  That said, this is a guy who posted a 108/41/112/30/.391 season in 2012. Hard to fault Jason for wanting a piece of that.

For Chris, we all know he had some problems drafting, which – teamed with Latos recurring injuries – left some rather massive holes in the pitching department, which has culminated in some rather pathetic pitching lines so far. This is a massive upgrade. The King looks as good as ever so far and there’s no reason to expect anything less than vintage Felix once again. Meanwhile, Ervin is pitching with a chip on his shoulder after getting passed on by so many teams in need of good pitching because of the draft pick compensation required in his signing.  He’s pitching for a big contract.  Though he’s been sporadic in his career, 2014 will be his first season in the NL is his career, in a division with the Phillies, Mets, and Marlins.  I expect a top 30 pitcher. If Latos gets healthy, Chris could potential roll out a rotation lead by F. Hernandez, M. Latos, J. Zimmerman, E. Stantana, and J. Lester – that is championship-caliber right there. And his offense is more than loaded without Braun, especially with the shrewd pickup of a suddenly rejuvenated Melky.

Overall, I give Chris the win here. If Braun stays healthy and productive, Jason gets one of the best keepers in the league. But that is a massive IF and judging by the articles I’ve read, he shouldn’t have needed to give up someone who – considering the injuries that have occurred – might be the best keeper pitcher in the game, along with another solid starter.

Week 1 Real Rankings

The Real Rankings are back! As a reminder for the league and introduction to Shomphe, I started running this last year in an effort to provide a different perspective on your team's production on a weekly basis. The weekly ranks (top table) shows how your team produced relative to the rest of the league -- as opposed to just your opponent for that week (i.e., the actual standings).  This is useful because it gives teams credit for production that did not result in a win, while also punishing teams for cheap wins.

For example, Russ had the 4th best OBP for the week, but lost the category because Mike had the 2nd best OBP for the week. Meanwhile, my team only had the 8th best OBP, but I got the win because Andrew was last in the category this week. The Real Rankings correct this injustice and compares all the teams in all categories.

The overall ranks (bottom table) simply track the team's Real Rankings over the course of the season. From left to right, RK is your overall average Real Ranking for the season, STD is the Actual head-to-head standings, +/- is the difference between the Real and Actual Rankings, OV is the overall average Real Ranking for the season, VAR shows the variability week-to-week (low = consistent team).

Few things to keep in mind:
- While there was some consternation when I unveiled this last year, it is not intended to replace the Actual Rankings nor should your goal for the season be to end up at the top of the Real Ranking. It will not help you. All it is meant to do is give you a more comprehensive means in which to assess your team's production for the week. Some of the concern came from the name of "Real Rankings," but the bullet below will show why I'm keeping the name.

- In the first full year last year, the Real Rankings actually were a testament to the validity of the head-to-head system, which some fantasy baseball purists disdain. Of the top eight teams in the Real Rankings last season overall, only one did not get one of the eight playoff spots (Jason came in 6th in the Real Ranking and 9th in the Actual Rankings, narrowly missing out on a playoff spot). Otherwise, every team's Real Rank was within one spot of their Actual Rank.

RNK	STD	+/-	TEAM	AVG
1	1	0	Clayton & The King	5.3
2	2	0	Donkey Punchers	6.4
3	3	0	Keepin it REAL...	6.5
4	5	-1	Moose is Loose!	6.5
5	4	1	Ring of Fire	6.7
6	9	-3	One Nut Wonders	6.9
7	6	1	Montezuma's Revenge	7.1
8	7	1	Anal Hershiser	7.2
9	8	1	Sexual Napalm	7.3
10	10	0	Cowhide Joyride	7.4
11	11	0	Prestige Worldwide	7.6
12	13	-1	The Angry Pirates	7.7
13	14	-1	THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS	8.4
14	13	1	Urban Achievers	8.7

- As you can see, Russ started 2014 where he left off last year, coming in tops in the Real Ranking even though he's low in the Actual Standings. Conversely, Dagan is second in the standings by 10th in Real Ranks.

- For the 2013 season, Russ was first with a 5.3 average and Dan was last at 8.7.  On a per-week basis, the highest Real Rank was 2.2 for Mike in Week 9 and the lowest was my 11.3, also in Week 9.

- Kyle had the smallest variance last year at 0.9. Chris and I tied for most volatile at 4.4.

- What you can't see here is the difference in hitting vs. pitching performance. Shomphe had the largest difference between pitching and hitting, coming in 1st in hitting and 14th in pitching.  Dave was the most consistent by category, coming in 9th in hitting and 11th in pitching.

- Unless something stands out, most weeks I won't post any commentary, just the tables. I try to get them posted some time on Mondays.

- Its important to not overreact to this at this point. We're 4.8% of the way through the regular reason.