Week 15 Real Rankings

After an extra long week in which, predictably, most of the single week records for the season were obliterated, we still have a lot of uncertainty in terms of playoffs. Brandon looks like a long shot, but other than that, the 13th place team (mine!) is only five games out of a spot. How many teams are going to be in dump mode by the time the two week open trading period begins?

That period, by the way, is two weeks from today. Time to start scouting if you haven't already.

Real Rankings over the last three weeks:

1. Overrated (5.4)
2. Cowhide (5.8)
3. Ring (6.3)
4. One Nut (6.4)
5. Donkey (6.5)
6. Moose (6.6)
7. Anal (6.8)
8. Angry (7.2)
9. Montezumas (7.8)
10. Prestige (7.8)
11. S. Napalm (8.3)
12. Keepin (8.4)
13. Urban (8.5)
14. Grumpy (9.1)

Top 25 Adds of the First Half

1. Andrew:  3B Josh Donaldson, April 25 (36^th overall) – To say this guy has been a surprise would be a massive understatement. He’s on pace for 84/27/102/3/.377 – you bet your ass that’s a keeper. I was very skeptical, but Andrew identified him early and has realized almost all of his value this year.
2. Chris: OF Yasiel Puig, June 4 (217^th) – You never really know when that waiver position will be helpful. This might help Chris for years to come.
3. Adam: SP Jose Fernandez, March 30 (80^th) – One of the first pickups of the year, this was my Easter morning present. No one expected the Marlins to start him with the big club this year. No one expected this level of dominance from a 20 year-old.
4. Dave: SP Travis Wood, April 5 (71^st) – After years of volatility, Wood has been one of the league’s most consistent pitchers, leading the league in QS – over guys like Kershaw, Wainright, Harvey Lee, Felix, etc. Dave sold high, but could live to regret it.
5. Kyle: SP John Lackey, April 6 (85^th) – Its easy to forget how good he was in the years before he came to Boston. He’s back and then some, though twice removed from Kyle at this point.
6. Dagan: SP Bartolo Colon, April 16 (47^th) – Speaking of the unexpected, how about this fat mother fucker coming back and blowing it by guys again. He has essentially pitched like an ace all season. Second in the league in QS, lack of Ks is the only thing holding him back.
7. Dagan: SP Mike Leake, April 23 (82^nd) – Really had no clue he was doing this well before I started writing this – 76/2.79/1.13/11. Another great find by Dagan.
8. Dan: SP Jeff Locke, May 12 (49^th) – Numbers are essentially the same as Leake, he’s been an incredible surprise in what has been a surprising Pirates rotation.
9. Russ: SP Ricky Nolasco, April 2 (240^th) – The 3.75 era isn’t great, but that’s the only reason he’s this low – 101 Ks and 11 QS from a habitual underperformer is quite excellent.
10. Russ: SS Jhonny Peralta, April 14 (119^th) – Nothing jumps out at you from his stats, but 40/8/46/3/.361 from the SS position is quite good. He’s fifth best overall SS in the first half.
11. Brian: C Jason Castro, May 29 (215^th) – Brian got stung hard by the Miguel Montero pick in the 4^th round, but Castro has made it hurt less, finishing the first half as the eighth ranked catcher and on pace for 20 hrs.
12. Andrew: 2B Howie Kendrick, April 16^th (88^th) – Somehow went undrafted, but Andrew picked him up early and found himself with a very productive 2B capable of filling up the statsheet. His 41/11/40/6/.352 is eight among 2B eligibles.
13. Adam: OF Colby Rasmus, June 1 (130^th) – A bad start, excellent end to the second half, the question is which way he’ll go from here. He’s on pace for 27 homers and 81 rbis, with a .331 obp that is at least not overly burdensome.
14. Jason: RP Edward Mujica, April 17 (49^th) – There’s just something about St. Louis and old castoff pitchers. He’s been one of the best closers in the year so far, which Jason used to acquire AGon and Lackey.
15. Adam: 2B Jedd Gyorko, May 19 (344^th) – Hard to peg how good this guy is at this point. Overall the stats aren’t tremendous, but he started slow and hurt his groin. How he ends the year will really determine how good this pickup was.
16. Brandon SP Tony Cingrani, April 15 (200^th) – Like Gyorko, it’s hard to judge this rookie definitively because he’s been up and down from the minors and in and out of the rotation. But he’s shown off his tremendous fastball and might be the best of all the midseason rookie starter callups.
17. Brian: RP Kevin Gregg, April 23 (157^th) – Amazing how guys like Gregg and Rodriguez can be complete castoffs to start the year, then be among the top closers. 18 saves and a 2.88/1.19 is pretty sweet.
18. Andrew: OF Nate McLouth, April 28^th (89^th) – He’s hit a wall over the past month, but Andrew grabbed this reclamation project early and realized much of his production – 53/6/17/24/.348.
19. Mike: SP Eric Stults, April 5 (135^th) – In some parks its just worth grabbing anyone with a regular job, which Mike did. He’s not good on the road (4.31/1.39), but his 2.45/0.88 at home is well worth rostering.
20. Pierce: 1B Adam Lind, March 31 (146^th) – Like McLouth, Lind went understandably undrafted, got red hot, and has since cooled, but his 38/11/37/1/.359 line has been plenty useful for one of Pierce’s rare pickups.
21. Brian: RP Joaquin Benoit, June 14 (128^th) – For all the talk about the DET closer position, it seems pretty silly for them to have not identified Benoit as the closer well before July. He’s been great, but you wonder if they’ll end up grabbing someone else.
22. Andrew: OF Raul Ibanez, June 24 (74^th) – It took quite a while for this old man to make a believer out of anybody, but Andrew eventually took the plunge and was rewarded with 11/7/14/.390 over the past three weeks.
23. Mike: SP Kyle Kendrick, April 21 (276^th) – Kendrick has fallen back to Earth lately, but he was tremendously valuable to start the season, maintaining a 3.22 era until hitting a rough patch a month ago.
24. Andrew: SP Gerrit Cole, June 7 (400^th) – The list of hyped rookie pitchers that ultimately were mediocre-to-awful is quite long (Wheeler, Gausman, Wacha, Bauer, Odiorzzi, Gibson, etc.). Cole has been decent and shown enough ability that he could blossom in the second half.
25. Russ: RP Francisco Rodriguez, May 24 (205^th) – His role has moved a bit, but it seems like he’s settled into closer at this point, and a pretty good one at that. The game of closer roulette is a game in and of itself.

Worst 25 Drops of the First Half

1.     Jason: OF Yasiel Puig, June 2 (217^th) – The only thing worse than drafting then dropping a guy who looks like a surefire keeper for many years is picking him up and letting him go the day before the Dodgers announce he’s getting called up. Could be an all-time blunder of epic proportions.

2.     Russ: OF Yasiel Puig, May 11 (217^th) – As I said in my review, its hard to keep a minor leaguer with no clear path to regular playing time. So few are actually productive. Some are though, like Mike Trout. Russ nearly caught a second Trout, but he released him. Pity.

3.     Adam:  SP Bartolo Colon, April 7 (47^th overall) – Particularly frustrating given my problems with starting pitching this year. Great numbers once again, only for Dagan.

4.     Dan: SP Jeff Locke, May 8 (59^th) – One of the year’s true surprises, the New Hampshire native has been plenty lucky, but still that 2.15 era and 1.13 whip would help any team. Chris lucked into this one.

5.     Brian:  RP Edward Mujica, April 14 (49^th) – It wasn’t long after this that Mujica became closer, and a damn good one.

6.     Brian: OF Colby Rasmus, April 19 (130^th) – Tough guy to own, believe me, but the key any streaky guy is to get the streak, then dump him. He stayed a FA until June 1 and now has 16 homers.

7.     Andrew:  SS JJ Hardy, April 29 (160^th) – See Rasmus, Colby and subtract five days from pickup

8.     Andrew: 2B/3B Jedd Gyorko, April 28 (344^th) – This would be much higher if he was injured for the past month. Had a great mid-May to late June and has the potential to be a keeper.

9.     Dave: 2B/3B Jedd Gyorko, May 13 (344^th) – Dave added and let him go too.  I picked him up six days later and he’s now a fixture.

10.  Andrew: SP Corey Kluber, May 6 (213^th) – Hard to blame Andrew based on Kluber’s previous lack of relevancy, pedigree, and secure rotation spot, but the returns since then have been quite good.

11.  Jason:  SP Miguel Gonzalez, June 2 (181^st) – Quietest 76/3.48/1.19/12 you’ve never noticed. Great back of the rotation guy… for Brian.

12.  Dave: OF Daniel Nava, May 7 (90^th) – Dave had him for two weeks but didn’t see his true value, which has been tremendous. Unfortunately, most of his early production went unused this season, but Lars certainly has found him useful.

13.  Adam:  2B Howie Kendrick, April 10 (88^th) – This would be much worse if I didn’t get him back in  a trade for a player that was ultimately dropped (Kyle Gibson), but Andrew certainly got some excellent numbers from this draft afterthought, who he picked up a week later.

14.  Andrew: RP Joaquin Benoit, April 25 (128^th) – The game of closer roulette is a perilous one and this guy could be a top closer in the second half… for Dagan.

15.  Brian: RP Joaquin Benoit, May 2 (128^th) – See above.

16.  Mike: OF Leonys Martin, April 20 (185^th) – Odd season for this guy since he hardly played to start the season. When he got on base, he didn’t run much. He’s running now though and Brandon has benefited.

17.  Dagan: 2B/3B/OF Kelly Johnson, April 23^rd (194^th) – Another guy you have to ride the streaks with. He got hot soon after this release, then got cold again. A warm streak will surely be soon, this time with 3B eligibility on Dan’s team.

18.  Dave: 2B Daniel Murphy, May 2 (114^th) – I don’t think he’s been quite as valuable as the Yahoo rank, but .302/52/6/39/10 from 2B is still pretty valuable.

19.  Dan: SP Chris Archer, June 26 (241^st) – Given the injuries and underperformance from TB pitchers, this could be a huge addition for Dave and a big loss for Dan.

20.  Brandon:  SP Dan Straily, June 24 (251^st) – Oddly held onto while he was in the minors and let go despite the demise of Brandon’s team. He could be fixture in the second half for Oakland and Andrew.

21.  Dave: OF Logan Morrison, June 21^st (961^st) – Another odd dump since Dave kept him in the DL spot for so long, then got rid of him shortly after his return. He’s played well since and has the pedigree to be a big help in an OBP league.

22.  Dagan: SP Dillon Gee, May 5 (753^rd) – Dagan is forgiven for dropping someone who had a 6.16 era at the time. He’s hit a few speed bumps since then, but has certainly been usable and has his era back down to 4.60 for Mike.

23.  Adam:  SP Ubaldo Jiminez, April 12 (772^nd) – Like Dagan, I didn’t see anything worth holding onto and given that he was my 23^rd rounder, I let him go. He’s still not great, but certainly a decent source of Ks and moderate performance for Jason.

24.  Adam:  SP Edwin Jackson, June 8^th (910^th) – Likewise, I got fed up with EJax and dropped him despite his OK underlying numbers. Predictably, Dagan grabbed him and he’s been halfway decent.

25.  Jason:  SS Alexei Ramirez, April 19^th (195^th) – There were a lot of SSs left out there after the draft and Alexei is one of them. His sub-.300 obp sucks, but 20 sbs is pretty useful.

Midyear Report - Part 1: Draft Recap

Round 7
Top Three:
1.    Pierce:  SP Max Scherzer – My number one to start the draft has officially leaped to the top tier of major league starters. Really should’ve been kept by somebody. The K totals alone make him extremely valueable.
2.    Lars:  OF Nelson Cruz – Lars got some grief for grabbing this oft-injured OF, but he’s had a great season with a line of 42/22/69/5/.334. But look out for the hamstring injury cus its coming.
3.    Mike:  OF Shin-Soo Choo – Nice pick, ultimately dealt for another great pick (Pence), and Mike ends up trading for another great first rounder in Molina (Andrew’s pick). Choo could be an interesting keeper depending on where he ends up in the offseason.
Bottom Three:
1.    Dan: 1B Ike Davis – I too had high expectations and almost picked him over Dunn (whew!), but there was enough questions to make him the X factor. Now one of four first rounders on my team (Rizzo, Davis, Dunn, Choo).
2.    Lars:  SS Jimmy Rollins – Uninspiring production (299th overall) makes him a waste of the first overall.
3.    Andrew:  2B Aaron Hill – Tough to fault Andrew for an injured and Chris’ Cueto pick certainly qualifies, but Hill has been anything but consistent in his career. Still could help though.

Round 8
Top Three:
1.    Kyle: SP Jordan Zimmerman – Never big on the Ks but the 95/2.58/0.97/14 qs is stellar. Might end up being a keeper a la Matt Cain.
2.    Pierce: OF Alex Rios – Pierce nailed another one here. Big reason he is doing so well is great drafting (certainly not waiver wire pickups – five moves, really?)
3.    Kyle:  C Wilin Rosario – Nice round for Kyle, eh? Deemed my worst pick, he’s certainly proven more than worthy of being a regular catcher. 13 hrs and 46 rbis from behind the plate is nothing to sniff at.
Bottom Three:
1.    Pierce: SP Ian Kennedy – Remember when this guy won 21 games and was a keeper? Me either. 5.42/1.40 is ugly; 8 qs is even worse.
2.    Dan: 2B Danny Espinosa – Normally I wouldn’t fault someone for an injury, but his should problems were widely reported prior to the draft, making him a risky pick to start. He’s been thoroughly unproductive when healthy with a .193 obp. The highest pick that is currently an FA.
3.    TIE – Lars & Dagan: 3B Mike Moustakas, 3B Will Middlebrooks – They were my X factors to start the year, had a similar plus-categorical profile, and both went sideways quick. Willy is in AAA and Mous might as well be, neither are on their original teams.

Round 9
Top Three
1.    Mike: OF Carlos Gomez – Everyone else should be kicking themselves for not recognizing the second half resurgence of this once-heralded prospect last year.
2.    Pierce: 1B David Ortiz – Call it homerism, call it brilliance, call it luck. Whatever it is, its damn productive for 287 abs.
3.    Dagan: C Mike Napoli – A smart call to begin with considering power, on-base skills and position scarcity while playing 1B, but the 47/11/58/.343 line is excellent, albeit streaky.
Bottom Three:
1.    Brandon: SP Dan Haren – The injury concerns were out there before the draft and his problems from last year continued to this year with an awful 81/5.61/1.42/6 line.
2.    Pierce: SP Josh Johnson – See Haren, Dan.
3.    Chris: 1B Paul Konerko – Production had to drop eventually and we’ve seen it happen this year. This mistake left a major hole in Chris’ lineup.

Round 10
Top Three:
1.    Mike: SP Matt Harvey – Candidate for pick of the draft, ultimately yielding Mike Strasburg and Molina.
2.    Lars: SP Mike Minor – Looking more and more like a keeper. If he repeats last year’s great second half, watch out.
3.    Dagan: SP Hiroki Kuroda – Sexy it is not, but he is essentially the cheapest ace you can find – 84/2.65/1.05/12.
Bottom Three:
1.    Brian:  C Miguel Montero – Can’t explain this one, other than that I expect some progression to the mean. Still, didn’t help Brian any.
2.    Lars:  SP Marco Estrada – His underlying numbers made him my worst pick, which proved true with a 5.32 era in 69 ip, then he got hurt (though still rostered for some reason).
3.    Adam:  SP Jonathon Niese – Find it hard to fault myself too much considering there was no talk of any shoulder problems heading into the season. Had a nice bounceback after his first DL stint, then got hurt again. Now on the Grumpy Cripples.

Round 11
Top Three:
1.    Adam: OF Hunter Pence – I saw no reason for him to drop this low and he’s proven his worth by putting up a 53/14/48/14 (where’d the speed come from?). The .305 obp is bit tough to swallow though. Traded for Choo.
2.    Brandon: SP AJ Burnett – Really has turned things around in Pittsburgh and should not have dropped this far.
3.    Jason: SP Matt Garza – Jason had to wait a lot longer than I expected, but Garza has certainly pitched like an ace since coming off the DL.
Bottom Three:
1.    Lars: SP Ryan Vogelsong – Sort of the poster boy for why drafting high is overrated.  I bet you didn’t even know Yahoo ranked the 1,092nd best player. Well, Lars did.
2.    Brandon: OF Andre Ethier – Follow that up with the poster boy for not completely selling out, as you get forced to take seemingly “safe” picks who ultimately dwindle into oblivion like Ethier has.
3.    Pierce:  SP Tim Lincecum – Hard to fathom this precipitous drop to mediocrity, but – no hitter aside – the numbers don’t add up to anything more than a 5th or 6th starter.

Round 12
Top Three:
1.    Brian: 1B/OF Chris Davis – If he wasn’t taken so high, you’d have to easily call him the pick of the year… Wait, that 70/37/93/.392 line isn’t his total for the season? Nevermind. Pick of the Year. Nice work, Brian.
2.    Chris: OF Alejandro De Aza – Surely, Chris didn’t expect he was getting a power hitter with obp problems, but that’s what he got. 12 knocks and 10 steals is good value here at 70th overall.
3.    Jason:  SP Derek Holland – The problem with drafting young pitchers is it takes so long for them to become surefire keepers. Holland is approaching that with a nice 121/3.08/1.28/13 line. Dan’s Bailey pick is similar, but the ERA is too high at 3.82.
Bottom Three:
1.    Chris: SP Brandon McCarthy – Injuries aside, he wasn’t good to start the season as flyball pitchers like him need big parks and 5.00, 1.43 is just not helpful.
2.    Brandon: SP Trevor Cahill – I expected a lot more given his propensity to get grounders and he started off quite well, but something went wrong a few weeks ago and its clear he was fighting an injury.
3.    Andrew: SP Wade Miley and SS Alcides Escobar – Wow, shitty round for D-backs pitchers and Andrew.  Miley has rebounded after a tough start, but that doesn’t help Andrew much.

Round 13
Top Three:
1.    Russ:  SP Shelby Miller – Another mid-round gem to follow up the Trout pick last year, Russ found a keeper who made Felix expendible.
2.    Kyle:  2B/3B Kyle Seager – I wasn’t much a believer that last year’s numbers were repeatable, but he’s legit: 54/15/44/3/.359.
3.    Chris: RP Joe Nathan – Chris was finishing up his draft at this point and happened to grab one of the best closers.
Bottom Three:
1.    Pierce: OF Corey Hart – I gave Pierce credit for the pick, buying into the preseason “I’ll be back in late April” talk. Its mid July and he’s not close. Time to give up, Pierce.
2.    Dagan: OF Josh Reddick – Ok, ok… he’s not anything close to a keeper. In fact, he’s barely rosterable.
3.    Dagan: OF Ben Revere – He’s ranked pretty high right now (154th overall), but Dagan ain’t seen any of that. He sucked so bad he got sent down and finally started running when he came back. Now he’s out two months with a broken foot. Injuries to Harrison, Garcia, Putz make it tough to fault.

Round 14
Top three:
1.    Dan: OF Dominic Brown – Kudos to Dan for nabbing one of the top picks in the draft in a true post-hype sleeper. That run he went on in May was incredible. If he keeps it up, he’s a great keeper.
2.    Dave:  SP Julio Teheran – Another post-hype sleeper who is achieving his ample promise. With an excellent 94/3.35/1.23/11 line, he’s a no doubt keeper at this point.
3.    Brian:  OF Alfonso Soriano – Everyone was sleeping on this guy despite his great 2012. It was apparent why early on, but Brian stuck with and is reaping the benefits now (well, except for that .288 obp).
Bottom Three:
1.    Chris: C Jesus Montero – While we’re on post-hype sleepers, I liked the pick, thinking he would finally start fulfilling his promise. Maaaaybe next year…
2.    Lars: SS Josh Rutledge – The pick made sense, but there was always a bit of risk involved with him, considering the lack of a significant track record or pedigree. The recent call-up has been unsuccessful.
3.    Pierce: OF Jason Kubel – Lots of crap to choose from in this round, but this one is up there. He’s been injured or shitty, but is somehow was still on his roster until today.

Round 15
Top three:
1.    Russ: OF Dexter Fowler – Was huge early on, but hit a rough spell and some injuries. Regardless, he’s still the 94th ranked player and seems like a lock for 20/30 with an excellent OBP (.381 now).
2.    Dan: SP Clay Buchholz – Maybe we should start calling him Glass Buchholz. It’s too bad. He’s been superb this year and is still ranked 32nd overall despite having 30-40 ip less than most top starters.
3.    Andrew:  2B/3B Jedd Gyorko – Barely gets the nod over Dagan’s Greg Holland pick, but its mainly because Andrew may have chosen a keeper here (well, someone else’s keeper; he was dropped in early May). He struggled in April, but was one of the top players once May started and until he pulled his groin in June. Second half will show a lot.
Bottom three:
1.    Adam: 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis – Oh how I wished I trusted my instinct and took Reynolds instead. Oh well. He has a back injury. Surprise surprise. I should’ve known better.
2.    Adam: SP Edwin Jackson – Well, I was on a roll here wasn’t I? Ranked 910th but has pitched much better since, well, since I dropped him! Fucker!
3.    Dave: OF Ichiro Suzuki – He actually hasn’t had an awful season, somehow getting to 6 homers and swiping 13 bags, but he’s still on the waiver wire and the upside is minimal with a .320 obp.

Round 16
Top three:
1.    Andrew: SP Hisashi Iwakuma – The underlying stats from last year showed great potential, but I didn’t trust them due to the fact that much of it came during relief. Well, that was a mistake.
2.    Dave: OF Torii Hunter – The old man still has it. Not doing much in the power and speed categories, but sandwiched between Ajax and Miggy/Prince is a good place to produce in run production.
3.    Lars: SP AJ Griffin – I like me some A’s starters, but thought there were better options for Lars to choose from. He was right , to the tune of a nice 94/3.68/1.12/10 line.
Bottom three:
1.    Dave: SP Josh Beckett – His velocity has been down for a while but his breaking stuff really wasn’t working this season, effectively turning him into Hideki Irabu.
2.    Brian: RP John Axford – I know selecting closers is tough this late, which is why I don’t really give people much credit when they get one right, but Ax had problems last year and they just continued into this year.
3.    Dagan: SP Dillon Gee – I liked him a lot going into the year and was surprised by his struggles. Dagan understandably dropped him, after which he’s been better. I expect a more palatable second half.

Round 17
Top three:
1.    Dave: RP Jason Grilli – Hard not to choose closers in this rounds since they comprised 8 of the 14 picks. Grilli has been outstanding with 29 saves, excellent rates and 63 ks in 40 ip.
2.    Brian:  RP Grant Balfour – He may be the least sexy closer out there, but he’s been just as good as Grilli minus the big K numbers.
3.    Lars:  RP Ernesto Frieri – To continue with the cagey former setup man turned reliever theme, Frieri was expected to be setup man this year but it appears Ryan Madson is just going to be injured for the next five years. Frieri has great K rates in the mean time.
Bottom three:
1.    Kyle: SP Jason Hammel – It was hard to expect him to continue to be the productive starter he was before getting injured last year. He’s not even striking out guys anymore.
2.    Lars: RP Carlos Marmol – My pick for worst pick predictably was the first closer to lose his job – a week into the season and was outright DFA’d later. Tough fall for what was a top arm at one point. Either way, the writing was on the wall and the pick proved useless.
3.    Brian: SP Shaun Marcum – When an old feller with no heat like Marcum is injured to start the season, it tends to not go well. And it did not. My picks of Billingsley and League were also bad, while Dan’s selection of Jeter also didn’t yield much.

Round 18
Top three:
1.    Andrew: OF Coco Crisp – When Coco is healthy, he’s pretty damn good as witnessed by his 48/9/35/14/.345 line. Solid pick for a guy who slipped.
2.    Jason: SP Jorge de la Rosa – A very nice bounceback season for the vet coming off TJ surgery. Too bad his Ks seemed to disappear, but I’m sure Jason isn’t complaining with a 3.21/1.28 and 11 qs out of Coors.
3.    Russ: 3B Mark Reynolds – Was a top 30 player to start the season turned to waiver wire fodder. Such is life with Mark Reynolds. Hard to blame Russ, but he provided an awful lot of production in a short time before turning into a black hole.
Bottom three:
1.    Dan: SP Mike Fiers – Loads of crap to wade through in this round, but Fiers was easily the worst with a 7.25/1.52. His production in 2012 was a massive surprise, so his demise should not be.
2.    Russ: SP James McDonald – Incredible how this guy went from one of the top 10 starters in the first half of last year to absolute worthless garbage. He still has talent, but he’s injured and now buried on a contender.
3.    Andrew: RP Bruce Rondon – He was an easy selection for worst pick in my review, but there was no way Lelyand was going to run this guy out there in the ninth given his spring struggles.

Round 19
Top three
1.    Dave: 2B, etc. Matt Carpenter – I loved him as a sleeper and boy has he proven his worth. He’s on pace for 125 runs, .394 obp, and can be used in every position except C and SS. That’s tremendous value. One of the top picks.
2.    Brian: SS Everth Cabrera – The guys is nutso fast and gets on base (34 steals, .373 obp), making him basically as valuable as Carp minus the eligibility. Past successes hinted of this type of capability. Great pick.
3.    Russ: SP Ervin Santana – Tough to not choose Pierce’s guy Lucroy here, but he really struggled to start the year and Ervin has been Good Ervin since the outset. He’s always been tough to nab, with 200 K/ sub 1.20 ability but some years he just sucks nuts. He took the balls out of his mouth and pitched very well this year.
Bottom three:
1.    Jason:  SP Edinson Volquez – Probably the player I hate most in fantasy showed why in the first half: great Ks + awful rates = waiver wire.
2.    Kyle: SP Scott Diamond – Another one of those out of nowhere guys that should really be avoided. This (5.32/1.52) is his true identity.
3.    Dan: 2B Dustin Ackley – The former second overall pick joins Smoak and Montero as just the latest struggling young Mariner.

Round 20
A remarkably good round for this late in the draft, so I just ranked them all.

1.    Adam: SS Jean Segura – Go me. Grabbed a keeper very late. One of the candidates for pick of the year.
2.    Russ: OF Yasiel Puig – My worst pick in my review. I wrote: “You know how I feel about wasting spots on minor leaguers. I really don’t like roster spots to be wasted on guys who have a complete and utter aversion to taking a pitch. Sure, great spring. Nice. He’s in the minors and is unlikely to get an extended look this year. When he does, I expect him to struggle and in no way produce in a way worth keeping.” If you need any more evidence that I don’t always know what I’m doing, there you have it.
3.    Dan: OF Starling Marte – He had a nice 2012 and good pedigree, but youth and a lack of on-base skills kept him off my radar. The 59/9/28/28/.342 first half put him back on.
4.    Adam: SP Justin Masterson – Some nights he’s off, but overall he’s incredible effective and third in the league with 137 ks, which is huge this late.
5.    Brian: OF Colby Rasmus – Incredibly streaky, Brian made a nice pick but understandably didn’t have the patience, which I appreciate.
6.    Mike: SS Jed Lowrie – Remarkably, he’s a week away from breaking his personal record for ABs in season. No speed, but solid overall.
7.    Dagan: SP Chris Tillman – Getting a bit lucky, but still has tremendous pedigree and pitched well at the end of last year, so good move by Dagan recognizing value.
8.    Kyle: SP Jose Quintana – Nothing sexy about this guy and he doesn’t tend to make it deep into games by 90/3.71/1.18/8 is a solid back of the rotation guy.
9.    Dagan: 2B Kelly Johnson – Another streaky guy who the original owner didn’t have the patience for, in total he’s had a nice bounceback season.
10.    Jason: OF Lorenzo Cain – Looked like a really good pick through the first two months, but the shine has worn down a bit and he’s losing ABs, but still a good pick.
11.    Brandon: SP Dan Straily – I sympathize with Brandon here in that Straily has not only been inconsistent, but the A’s handling of him – shuttling between AAA and the majors – has been tough to follow. Could be in for a great second half if he’s up throughout.
12.    Kyle: SP Felix Doubront – Inconsistent start to the season made him a candidate to be demoted and was ultimately dropped twice. He’s the 76th ranked pitcher over the last 30 days though.
13.    Jason: OF Emilio Bonifacio – Ironically, my selection for top pick was one of two misses.
14.    Dagan: RP Mitchel Boggs – There was hope at one point, but an 11.05 era won’t get you far, well it got him sent to Colorado Springs anyway.

Round 21
Top three:
1.    Dagan: OF Chris Carter – My preseason prediction for pick of the draft has been very good with 18 homers and 47 rbis, but I expected a better OBP than .326. Perhaps one to watch in the second half.
2.    Brian: RP Trevor Rosenthal – Far be it for me to applaud a relief pitcher, who is not a closer, and who was dropped by the team that drafted him, but this was – as opposed to the previous round – an exceptionally shitty round.
3.    Dave:  OF Logan Morrison – Its very easy to move along from guys at this point in the draft, but Im surprised Dave gave up on him so quickly after keeping him in the DL spot most of the season. Had a nice little come back in 85 abs and may just have a great second half for Brian.
Bottom Three:
1.    Brandon: OF Billy Hamilton – He’s really going have to set the world on fire when he eventually comes up and either yield a draft pick or be a keeper. Otherwise this guy has consumed a roster space all season and hasn’t even been that good at AAA.
2.    Lars: OF Jackie Bradley, Jr. – Remember this guy’s incredible spring? Me either.
3.    Brandon: SP Brett Myers – I liked the pick initially given the upside, but he quickly showed he’s not healed yet.

Round 22
Top three:
1.    Brandon: SP Patrick Corbin – Right behind Davis as pick of the year. 109/2.35/1.00/16 – amazing.
2.    Dave: RP Kenley Jansen – Got to hand it to Dave for sticking with even when League started the season good and management made it sound like Jansen was a setup guy to stay. Not many opportunities since becoming closer, but he’ll get them and put up big K numbers along the way.
3.    TIE - Adam and Kyle: SP Jhoulys Chacin, SP Miguel Gonzalez – Pretty similar numbers for these two with lackluster K rates but very good WHIPs and QS totals. Filling the back of a rotation with these are the types of picks that can make or break your team.
Bottom Three:
1.    Russ: 3B Alex Rodriguez – What were the odds he was going to stay on Russ’ roster throughout his rehabilitation? Not very good. He lasted 17 days.
2.    Kyle: SP Lucas Harrell – This is made immensely worse by the fact that he is still on Kyle’s roster despite the 1,313rd ranking.
3.    Dagan: SP Clayton Richard – An intriguing set of tools just has never translated, even in San Diego, which is Spanish for “We should’ve gotten more for Jake Peavy.”

Round 23
Top three:
1.    Brandon: C Brian McCann – Of all the Grumpy Cripples, McCann is the lone success story as he has been extremely good since coming back and, along with the pick of Corbin from the previous round, netted Brandon Carlos Santana in a trade.
2.    Brandon: 1B Mitch Moreland – At one point it looked like this was going to be a real breakout year for Mitch, but he’s been only OK as of late. Think Texas would rather have Chris Davis now? Still 13 homers is good.
3.    Dagan: 3B Trevor Plouffe – Not much to choose from this late, but Plouffe has been an effective 3B in the wake of the Middlebrooks disaster.
Bottom three:
1.    Mike: C Travis d’Arnaud – Released early on and, predictably, was injured shortly after.
2.    Brandon: SP Corey Luebke – Brandon is steadfast that he will produce something of value this season, even if its just a midround pick.
3.    Adam: SP Jake Arrieta – I hemmed and hawed, but thought I might as well drop Arrieta to make my first pickup of the year – SP Jose Fernandez. That worked out OK.

Round 24:
Top three:
1.    Mike: OF Michael Cuddyer – Gay Santa throws in his candidate for pick of the year. Really, an awesome recognition of value. Not many last rounder produce a 44/16/55/6/.391 line and rank 34th overall. Tremendous.
2.    Dave: SP Francisco Liriano – Overshadowed only by Cuddyer, this pick has to be in the running as well as Liriano has found his old form and posted a remarkable 80/2.00/1.19/8 line in 76 innings. Kudos to Dave for sticking with.
3.    Pierce: SP Bronson Arroyo – The hits just keep on coming. Not up the Cuddyer and Liriano’s level, but Pierce found a steady force late as he’s come up big with a 1.13 whip and 14 QS.
Bottom three:
1.    Brandon: SP Vance Worley – Hard to fault anyone for picks here, but Worley’s suckiness is only surpassed by Philip Humber in the Yahoo rankings, with a rank of 1,360th and a line of 25/7.21/1.99/3.
2.    Mike: SS Eduardo Nunez – Remember when people thought he might replace Jeter someday. Umm, no.
3.    Adam: RP Phil Coke – Mr. Irrelevant quickly stayed true to his name.

Trade Review: Grumpy and Montezumas

Grumpy receives:

C Carlos Santana CLE

SP Jonathon Niese NYM

Round 24

Round 24           

Montezuma’s receives:

C Brian McCann ATL

SP Patrick Corbin ARI

Round 14

Round 16

Casten cashed in two of his best draft picks with Corbin and McCann, who were picked in the 22^nd and 23^rd rounds, respectively. Sure, the rest of the season might’ve gone to shit, but he can hang his hat on identifying some late round gems. And because of that, he acquires a very valuable keeper for an OBP league in Santana, who is fourth in walks this year behind only Votto, Choo and Miggy and is sporting a .374 obp. While he consistently gets on base, his power comes in streaks. He’s on pace for 19 homers this year, but that could rise quickly once he hits a hot streak. He hit 27 homers two years ago and is just entering his prime at the age of 27. One benefit that few backstops offer is he essentially plays everyday, circulating between DH, C, and 1B. I don’t think he’s had his best season yet, so it’s a nice acquisition for Brandon, who – as of now – will start next year with a nice base of Miggy, Braun, Giancarlo, Heyward, and Santana, though I suspect he’s not done dealing yet.  Niese is a guy who was pitching much better after an abysmal start to the season, but has twice been shut down due to shoulder inflammation. It sounds like he could rejoin the rotation early in the second half, so Brandon could potentially realize value for him later on. Heck, I might make a run at him if he is recovered.

Not far from Brandon in the standings, I’m not giving up. My team has too much talent to give up on. This trade helps me this year and also restores two high picks I was missing with round 14 and 16. Nothing other than a lack of track record suggests Corbin’s season has been a fluke as all his underlying numbers are quite good. That said, his 3.53 xFIP shows his sparklng 2.35 era is like to rise. He Ks guys at a rate something below your typical ace, but he’ll joing Zimmermann as guys who can help me with my pitching rate problem (6-22 on the season between the two categories –yuck). Meanwhile, McCann is no longer much of a keeper, primarily due to injuries, but he’s had a nice recovery. He is getting on base at the same rate as Santana at .371 and has actually matched his 11 homers – despite 123 less at bats. Providing he doesn’t get injured McCann should at least come close to matching Carlos for this season. Beyond that, certainly Carlos would be nice to have, but I would’ve been hard pressed to keep him given how some of my other guys have emerged. Jean Segura and Jose Fernandez are no doubt keepers, joining Hamels, Rizzo, and Upton, leaving a spot open for someone like Dunn, Choo, or perhaps Gyorko. So, the hit to the keepers is mitigated and the overall value of the deal is completely surpassed by the 18 rounds of upgrade I acquired, including losing my two last rounders.

Pretty fair deal in that we both got what we wanted. I do feel I was more aided by the deal because my keepers are still good, my 2013 team is better, and I got a significant upgrade in picks.

Trade Review: One Nut and Angry

One Nut recives:

3B Aramis Ramírez MIL

SP Yovani Gallardo SP

Round 21

Round 24

Angry receives:

SS J.J. Hardy BAL

SP Mark Buehrle TOR

Round 15

Round 18

Typical Jason, assembling his roster based on all star game appearances. Really, the names on his roster look incredible, top to bottom. But Gallardo is just the latest among the biggest names having an awful year, joing the like of Lester, Dickey, and Ubaldo (OK, it’s pretty good for Ubaldo, but that’s not saying much). With the addition of Felix and Moore, Burnett, Garza, and De la Rosa lining up behind him, I like his top 5 fine, but the staff is just OK overall. The same goes for his offense. Only Adam Jones and AGon are among the top 100 players ranked overall. Sure, injuries have played a role, but its hard to sympathize when Jason acquires guys who are hurt like Reyes, Kinsler, Willingham, and now ARam. Meanwhile guys like VMart, Prado, and Headley have all drastically underproduced, while Pujols is good but not great. If you add up career numbers, Jason would take the league easily, but right now he’s showing up at 11^th in the real rankings and 10^th in the actual standings, so its hard to argue that’s where he should be. Two of the past three weeks have been good overall, so perhaps he’ll be turning things around shortly. But this trade doesn’t help. Gallardo (trust me) has been terrible and hasn’t shown signs of turning things around as his velocity continues to be lackluster and no one is biting on his breaking ball. Meanwhile, ARam’s recent injury is the latest in a lingering knee sprain he suffered in spring training, which continues to sap his power and looks like it will be something he deals with all season. If he wasn’t 35, that might not be a problem and Jason could buy one of ARam’s token great second halfs for pennies on the dollar. But he is old and his demise had to come at some point. Might be now. If it is, by the time Jason gives up on him, it will likely be after a lot of weeks of wasted roster spot. Given where he is the standings, it’s a risk.

Kyle may lose out on potential in this deal, but he gains the two best players so far this year. Hardy is a streaky chap and he’s hit a cold spell, but he’s hit 16 homers this year, which is a lot – especially for someone I assume Jason was viewing as a throw in. Of course, he’s an obp killer at .294 and has not speed, but its certainly manageable given what he does provide. Once he hits a hot streak again, a contender would be smart to give Kyle a ring. Buehrle, meanwhile, started the season awful but he’s been who he is over the last couple months, accumulating six QS in his last ten starts, with a couple stinkers mixed in there. He still has value as a backend guy. If he can get that 4.89 era down below 4, he could be an asset down the stretch. With eight playoffs spots and only two teams selling at this point, guys like Buehrle may be the types available for contenders to trade for.

Kyle get 12 rounds of upgrade, including one of Jason’s highest available pick to trade, and he now has two 14ths and two 15ths. On the surface, Jason acquired two keepers for some late picks and the two guys he liked least on his roster. But sometimes it more valuable to have guys you can just cut, rather than those you feel like you have to hang on to for the name and potential value – especially when said players have severe issues like a significant lingering injury and diminishing stuff supported by bad underlying numbers. Considering Gallardo and Buehrle’s stats so far are essentially identical and Hardy’s are far superior to ARam, and given the low likelihood of a drastic turnaround for Jason’s players, Kyle gets an easy win here.