Trade Review: Anal and Angry

Anal receives:

1B Adam LaRoche WAS

SP Doug Fister DET

SP Derek Holland TEX

RP Glen Perkins MIN

RP Bobby Parnell NYM

16^th rounder

17^th rounder

Angry Pirates receives:

1B Prince Fielder DET

1B James Loney TB

1B Justin Morneau MIN

OF Melky Cabrera TOR

SP Andy Pettite

22^nd rounder

24^th rounder                        

Ahh, another blockbuster. Just a quick recap on the names of guys being dealt so far this year: Braun, Pujols, Fielder, Strasburg, Reyes, Harvey, Pujols, Weaver, Rizzo, Kinsler, Peavy, Aramis, Choo, AGonzalez, Gallardo, Utley, Pence, Lester, Crawford, Beltre, and MMoore. This is the type of action I hoped we would see with the new restrictions.

Anyhow, so we have 13 rounds of upgrade here for Andrew, who gets a viable, albeit inconsistent replacement at first base in LaRoche, two mediocre but secure closers, and two good starters for the best fantasy first baseman in the game and a lot of borderline rosterable scrubs (this is the real Melky, this is the modern Morneau, this is not the real Loney, and Pettite was inconsistent before he became a geriatric). The question is whether Andrew got enough and I’m thinking he did not. As a whole, yes these are all very useful guys, certainly his bullpen is better with those two plus Rodney and Henderson, and his pitching staff is stellar: Verlander, Harvery, Bumgarner, Iwakuma, Fister, Holland is the best sixsome in the league. However, when you think of a relatively young power guys like Prince, you have to take a look at the keeper value and – given the dearth of consistent power producers who play every single day – he is among the most valuable. Further, while the upgrade is nice, when you deal a guy like this you want to make sure you’re getting a shot at good talent in the future.  Rounds 16 and 17 are where you fill in the middle of the rotation or take a shot at a middle-of-the-road closer, not where you find young sluggers – that’s why Dave required a high pick before he dealt Fielder in the offseason.  Knowing how much Andrew values his Tigers makes me believe he thinks this is the depth he needs to leap into the upper echelon. However, his pitching was already really good as it was and able to compete with the Russes and Chrises of the league, but the offense left something to be desire.  That is still the case. He’s got five guys with double digit homers – three of them are just barely there with upstart Donaldson and recent acquisitions LaRoche and Willingham at 10 homers a piece. The two guys currently on his roster with more than 10 are the OBP-averse JP Arencebia and Raul Ibanez, the latter of which cannot be counted on to produce much more than this at the age of 41. That’s a problem. He’s got speed up the arse, but without a bit more power, this is not a balanced team. He has Myers up finally and first round pick Aaron Hill is back this week, so perhaps that will make a difference, but for now I’m not sure this helps Andrew today and I know it doesn’t help him in the future.

Likewise, its an odd move for Kyle, who now has a remarkable seven players that are eligible to play first base. I really expected he had some guys lined up to balance out his roster and dump the bench guys he didn’t want, but its been two days and really nothing has been done. Instead, he’s got five offensive bench spots, which is waaaay too much, seven starters and one closer, which is waaay too little. Maybe he’s working on a trade, but currently Kyle’s team is even less balanced than Andrew’s. Meanwhile, five of the seven starters that he does have on the roster could easily be placed on the waiver wire and not move (and I have serious doubts about whether Arroyo will continue to produce). Perhaps he’s making a smart move by selling high on Holland/Fister, who both have ERAs above 5.00 and whips above 1.30 the past two weeks, and certainly Perkins and Parnell could go from surefire 35-save closers to worthless setup pitcher for the Yankees in a matter of weeks. Also, its not like he’s awash in power either.  However, I expect guys like Craig, Morales, McCutchen, Aramis, and Starlin to all put up better power numbers going forward. So, I think the offense would’ve been competitive even before. It’s better now with  Prince and Crawford eventually coming back, but I just don’t see how he will ever win any of the pitching categories with the current rotation and only Clippard/Mujica as bullpen arms.

So, in summary, I hate this trade for both of you! You both lose!

Trade Review: Moose and Cowhide

Cowhide receives:

OF Tyler Colvin COL

3B Eric Chavez ARI

SP Alfredo Figaro MIL

16^th rounder

18^th rounder

Moose receives:

SP Travis Wood CHC

OF Torii Hunter DET

SS Andrelton Simmons ATL

21^st rounder

24^th rounder

Let’s just clear this up from the beginning, Dave got 11 rounds for Travis Wood and Torii Hunter. Moose gets some semblance of a fillin at SS while Everth and Tulo are out, but honestly Simmons isn’t any better than the waiver options out there. So was it enough? Well, we should start with Wood since he’s been just a monster this year. Never a big K guy, his 69/2.85/1.00/14 is most certainly very useful with a remarkable 93% QS%. The problem is Dave might’ve just sucked the value out of him and tossed the carcass over to Brian – 93% is simply not sustainable. The only two guys who had QS% last year over 80% (min 15 games started) happen to win the Cy Young awards for their respective league – Dickey had 83.3% and Price had 81.8%. I don’t see Wood winning a Cy Young. He could certainly continue to be useful and end with a very good 3.25/1.20 line, but that would mean he would need to post like a 4.00/1.30 line going forward (i.e., regress). Perhaps he’s like Dickey last year (minus the Ks obviously) and this is just his year, but I doubt it. His xFIP is 4.35 and this difference between his xFIP and his ERA is up there with a slew of other regression-likely types – Jeff Locke, Alexi Ogando, Patrick Corbin, Jeremy Guthrie, etc. I expect him to continue to be useful, certainly not someone I would feel like dealing off – along with an old but useful OF (40/3/30/1/.346) – in order to move up from the late rounds to the mid/late rounds if I was a playoff contending team, and Dave certainly is at this point. In that respect, it’s curious, but perhaps Dave just saw an opportunity to maximize the value he had.

So, while an odd move certainly, I would say despite first glance inclination making it look like Dave got duped, I expect Wood’s 71^st overall ranking to drop to about 171^st by the end of the season, making this a pretty fair, exceedingly boring exchange.

Week 12 Real Rankings

Average Real Rank by Category

Thought I'd break it down by category as well, so people can see which categories they're doing well and not so well.

Gold indicates the leader in that category, Blue is last in the category.

Week 11 Real Rankings

A week after turning over nearly one-third of my roster via trades and wire pickups, a nice turnaround even if it ultimately a brief one.

Top three teams in real rank average over the last three weeks: 
1. Moose (4.8)
2. Clayton (4.9)
3. Sexual (5.5)

Bottom three average last three weeks:
1. Grumpy (9.7)
2. One Nut (8.7)
3. Urban (8.6)


Variance leaders for the year
Most consistent (VAR) Highest rank - Lowest rank:
1. Urban (1.0) 6.7-9.6
2. Clayton (1.1) 3.3-6.8
3. Ring (1.2) 5.7-9.0

Lease consistent:
1. Montezumas (5.6) 3.5-11.3
2. Donkey (4.4) 2.7-10.4
3. Sexual (3.8) 2.2-9.3

Trade Review: Montezuma's and Cowhide

Cowhide receives:
SP Jordan Lyles HOU
19th rounder

Montezuma's receives:
SP Corey Kluber CLE
22nd rounder

Of the unsexy trades, this may be the unsexiest.  But I like Kluber; almost picked him before Dave did and he continues to impress. Like Lyles, the overall numbers are skewed by one really bad outing in a year that started in the minors. Kluber however is 12th in the league in xFIP (fielding independent pitching) among some of the top performing pitchers in fantasy this year. That with a very good walk rate (1.8 BB/9), good homer rate (1.1 HR/9) and striking out a batter per inning (19th in the league among starters) makes him a very interesting speculative addition. Mind you, not one worth giving up much more than a few rounds of upgrade due to his lack of pedigree or impressive upside, but he's certainly got ability if you watch him pitch and could be a great source of value for little cost. Or he could be back on the wire next week. He doesn't have a high GB% at 44%, so that might show up in the box score from time to time. Lyles meanwhile has been excellent and recently Kd 10 batters to add to a string of very good starts for the lowly Stros. He was a decent prospect and has had sporadic success in the majors, so he's one worth monitoring. The major difference between the two is Lyles higher walk and lower K rate and the level of competition Kluber has faced, which is noteworthy. Either way, low risk/potentially high reward move for myself. Go me.

Trade Review: One Nut and Cowhide

One Nut recieves:
SP Jon Lester BOS
23rd rounder

Cowhide receives:
1B Eric Hosmer KC
16th rounder

Dave seems to be taking a different approach suddenly with a bevy of relievers and most of his starters on the block. It could pay off if the relievers continue to K at the rate they are because I imagine with the guys he has, he shouldn't have a problem winning ERA and WHIP. Obviously he won't get the QS category, but it's a new, interesting approach that a complete reversal from the no-reliever strategy employed by some. The benefit is he'd avoid a lot of the competition that exists for quality starters. This wouldn't work with most because the Ks just won't add up in most circumstances, but Chapman, Kimbrel, Jansen, and Grilli are among the top strikeout closers and Rosenthal and Robertson put up good numbers as well. Something to monitor.

But, I am afraid this trade is just not worth it in my mind. I would think he'd be able to get a much more established hitter than Hos, as well as a pick upgrade, for someone like Lester.  Sure, he's struggled lately but he's shown enough to make one of the plentiful Sox followers in the league to give up someone of value. The reason I gave up on Hosmer, despite his once ample promise, is his position. You need power at 1B, particularly if you don't have it elsewhere like Dave, and he's just not showing it. Someday,  I think it will. Perhaps the second half will be better. I've just seen enough of him to have my doubts that he won't have a Daric Barton-like year. Obviously, the high pedigree and promise he once showed gives him tremendous upside. He's hitting for a decent average, just not getting lift. He had the highest percentage of groundballs in the AL at 61% -- that's an awful lot for a guy at a power position. I still think he'll rejoin the ranks of the great young players. I just don't think it will be this year, making it tough to keep him.

Jason meanwhile continues to rack up the big names. I mocked him last year for accumulating names and not numbers, but it seemed to work out pretty well for him. Really, for all his offensive promise, his pitching is just OK. This should help. I'm not sure I like this team as much as I did when I ranked him second in my midseason power rankings because of all the turnover. It's certainly different. The names are great, I just (again) question whether the names are bigger than the numbers. He's 8-21-1 since I ranked him so high and is not having a great Week 11 as we speak, so it will be interesting to see if he ultimately makes good of his promise.  Either way, win for him here in my mind.

Week 10 Real Rankings

Trade Review: Montezumas and One Nut

Montezumas receives:

1B Anthony Rizzo CHC

SP John Lackey BOS

One Nut receives:

2B Ian Kinsler TEX

RP Huston Street SD

1B Eric Hosmer KC

This is one of those trades enabled by the persistence of both sides. Jason and I rarely come together for a trade because I never feel like my needs are being heard and he probably doubts he can bilk me. That said, we have been able to trade when we both have clear needs (Adam Lind for Carlos Santana in 2011 was a good one, well, for me). Anyhow, I sent an offer to deal Kinsler for AGon a week prior and we didn’t really line up. But with Jason’s trade with Casten, in which he received Pujols and lost Utley, this made more sense.

After about two dozen exchanges, we centered around the above deal with Chacin instead of Hosmer. I was close to giving up until he sent this offer. I hesitated briefly to remember the good times with Hosmer, then remembered they were more frustrating than fun and considered the unlikeness that he rebounds with the type of furor that makes me want to keep him for a third straight year, and ultimately accepted. One homer? Really? After all you put me through last year, dreaming of the promise you showed in 2011, when I dropped Ian Stewart and grabbed you off the waiver wire and you finished with the type of numbers not typically seen by 22 year olds? All that and you give me the same power numbers as Juan Pierre. Most frustrating, especially when I considered just last year “Nah, I don’t need to pickup Goldschmidt. I have Hosmer! Let someone else get him.” These are the types of decisions that change the fortune of teams for a long time.

Anyhow, enough with my Hosmer whining, I actually think he’s still got promise and just needs elevate the way he has shown an ability to do in the past. It just doesn’t appear to be coming this year. Rizzo, meanwhile, has shown he has the power to be a top notch fantasy 1B for years to come and the upcoming warm days at Wrigley provide hope that he has a 90/30/100/15/.340 season in him this year, or something close to that. I needed something from 1B and felt using Dunn there was a waste of his OF eligibility, so I am happy to have someone who could be a building block for years to come. Meanwhile, with four people on the DL (and, little did I know, Gyorko would hit the DL the next day as well) and a sense of urgency given my place in the standings, I was glad to gain back active roster spots. I sort of wish I dealt League instead of Street now, but what can you do. Kinsler is a great addition for Jason because he has the ability to contribute to five categories. The problem for Jason is that half his team is injured currently. Once healthy, if he doesn’t fall out of contention, he could dominate the playoffs – at least from a offensive perspective with C: VMart, 1B: Pujols, 2B: Kinsler, 3B: Hanley, SS: Reyes, OF: AGon, OF: AJones, OF: Cain, UTIL: Headley, UTIL: Hardy. That’s quite formidable. Grab another stud pitcher at the deadline and he’ll have a heck of a team -- again providing they’re both healthy and productive. Meanwhile, I needed a pitcher and always liked LA Angels John Lackey. He looks like that guy now and I’m happy to fill out the middle of the rotation with his potential now that Peavy is on the shelf.

Trade Review: Anal and S. Napalm

Anal receives:

SP Matt Harvey NYM

OF Josh Willingham MIN

C JP Arencebia TOR

15^th rounder

S. Napalm receives:

SP Stephen Strasburg WAS

C Yadier Molina STL

OF Angel Pagan SF

23^rd rounder

This was very interesting, not only because it involves two elite young pitchers but the pieces below it. First off, as good as Harvey is, we’re still talking a small sample size (150 ip). He’s only 16 months younger than Strasburg but has pitched double the innings in his career. Stras’ ample pedigree and experience tells you he’s clearly the one to have long term. But health is a factor not to be overlooked. Stras’ 325 ips are spread out over four years, four outstanding years on a per game basis, but he does you little good on the bench. Meanwhile, Harvey has never been considered the phenom that Strasburg was, picked in the middle of the first round. He’s never had health problems (that I’m aware of) and has progressed as a prospect should. That said, regression could come quickly and he may ultimately end with numbers something below that of your typical keepers – sub-3.00 era, 1.10 whip, 200+k, 75 QS%.  Both have superb rates around 2.50/1.00 with 10+ K/9 for their careers. Its just a matter of what do you put more faith in? Strasburg’s pedigree or Harvey’s health. It will be interesting to see how this one goes.

The difference between Molina and Arencebia and Pagan and Willingham is very close. I’ve got more faith in the health of the player playing the less threatening position, though that is also what gives Molina his value. Willingham has struggled a bit, but that’s mostly in the batting average dept, which we don’t care about. He’s got a healthy 27/10/31/.359 line. Molina’s is something a bit less helpful to the bottom line at 28/4/32/.390, but he’s also the second highest ranked catcher in the league. Meanwhile, Pagan and Arencebia have basically the same value, which is something more than waiver material. Call this part of it a wash.

With Andrew receiving a pretty significant eight-round upgrade (two below the maximum allowed) and Strasburg’s injury woes, I like this more for his team at this point. That said, it’s not a bad chance for Gay Santa to acquire one of the more unique talents of our time when there are concerns and maximizing on a guy (Harvey) whose value could not get higher in a long-term keeper league. Nice trade boys.

Trade Review: Grumpy and One Nut

Grumpy receives:

OF Ryan Braun MIL

2B Chase Utley PHI

One Nut receives:

1B Albert Pujols LAA

SS Jose Reyes TOR

SP AJ Burnett PIT

There were conflicting reports out of both camps on how this trade developed. Bottom line is it sounds like they were both ultimately OK with it, though there obviously should’ve been a discussion following the ESPN biogenesis report. Call it courtesy, in general, if there’s an unforeseen circumstance that might change an owner’s view of a trade, you should always double check with them. Gain your advantage through well-thought out pursuit of players, not thievery.

That said, I still think this is pretty fair. In the end, I too have doubts about whether this will result in suspensions. With numbers comparable to Colby Rasmus at this point, Pujols is not who he once was. He rebounded last year, but he’s a watered down version of his past self. Reyes meanwhile is obviously a top 3 guy, but his well documented injury history in non-contract years and ankle injury (not to mention stinky team) makes you wonder how much of an asset he’ll be this year. His name is bigger than his production, with a good not great obp of .343 lifetime, 100 runs, 5-10 homers, 40 sbs. At a shallow SS position, it’s an asset definitely, just not what it once was. Burnett is revitalized in Pittsburgh and Jason was smart to grab him and get a major contributor with minor name recognition. He has a QS in 8 of his 10 starts this year.

Brandon gets one of the top 3 players in the game*. In a straight up deal, I think Brandon wins hands down. The names might be elite and the resumes excellent, but Pujols, Reyes, Utley are all being outplayed by lesser known players this year. Braun is in his prime and if he manages to avoid this threat of a 100 game suspension, you just don’t find that type of consistent across the board production easily. I don’t blame Brandon taking this despite the controversy. At this point, sitting last in the standings, why not? At team facing a hot Miguel and Braun has no chance.

Week 9 Real Rankings