Trade Review - One Nut and Urban

Urban Achievers receive:
SP Gio Gonzalez, WAS
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
21st rounder (15th)
23rd rounder (17th)

One Nut receives:
11th rounder (5th)
16th rounder (10th)

Nice deal here for both teams. Dan needed to improve his keepers one way or another and he did. Phillips does a lot of things good and nothing great, and is one of those players who is more valuable in leagues with average as a category rather than OBP (career avg is .272, obp is .322). PECOTA projections are a bit high in my opinion (89r/23hr/92rbi/20stl) as his last two seasons were something short of that in speed and power (18hr/16stl in 2010, 18/14 in 2011), but he’s gone 30/30 once, 20/20 twice, and is a lock for at least 80/15/80/15. Plus he’s only 31 and trying to get a new contract, certainly better than keeping Morneau, Kelly Johnson, or Gaby Sanchez. Gio is a tough one to peg as he can be extremely volatile. PECOTA has him at 163 ks (176ip) with at 4.08 era and 1.38 whip, which is not really keeper material. His 1.32 whip last year wasn’t killer and his 3.12 era and 197 ks (8.8 k/9) were quite good, but the projections indicate part of that was luck and you have to wonder what impact the change in leagues will have. In most cases, it helps, but Oakland is notorious for being a great pitcher’s park and the NL East looks pretty competitive this year. All in all, what keeps Gio from being a top tier pitcher (at least for our purposes) is a quality start percentage of 59%. By comparison, the top guys last year were Jered Weaver (85%) and Verlander (82%). He’s only 26, so there is room for improvement and he is a pretty decent number two guy. The bottom line is Dan’s keepers are much improved with CC, Desmond, Phillips, Gio, and probably Choo. He still has some questionable number six options as it is really tough to know what to expect from Chris Young and he could ultimately lose time to Parra, and Jesus Montero has a bright future but Yahoo has his only position as “Util.” The Olivio/Jaso platoon that Wedge has planned in Seattle may not leave many opportunities for the young gun to gain the eligibility that is really key to his overall value. It would be worth dealing with rookie volatility at catcher, but production from the UTIL slots is important for our league. You’d expect a better set of draft picks for a team that was out of it quite early last year (two picks in first five rounds), but the middle rounds are what separate the men from the boys in this league and he’s got plenty of those.

For Jason, it’s not much of a loss. His keepers include Braun, Weaver, Hanley, and Shields, with some other intriguing guys like Utley, Alex Gordon, and Miguel Montero. The drop off from Gio and Phillips to any of these three is either minimal or non-existent. Prior to the trade, Jason has a pretty sizable block of time where he wouldn’t do much picking, with only one pick from the 12th round to the 19th. The trade will give him a second in this period and a sixth pick in the first five rounds, so ultimately a good move. As you may expect, Jason is probably not done at least attempting to improve in the next two weeks.

Draft Order

UPDATED - March 8

7th
1 Billy Chapel
2 Clayton
3 Urban
4 Clayton
5 Cowhide
6 Donkey
7 Clayton
8 One Nut
9 Prestige
10 Prestige
11 Keepin
12 Anal
13 Grumpy
14 Ring
8th
15 Ring
16 Grumpy
17 Grumpy
18 Grumpy
19 Prestige
20 One Nut
21 Clayton
22 Grumpy
23 Grumpy
24 Cowhide
25 Montezuma
26 Moose
27 Donkey
28 Billy Chapel
9th
29 One Nut
30 Donkey
31 Moose
32 Montezuma
33 Cowhide
34 Angry Pirate
35 Moose
36 Clayon
37 Grumpy
38 Moose
39 Grumpy
40 Clayton
41 Grumpy
42 Ring
10th
43 Ring
44 Grumpy
45 Moose
46 Grumpy
47 Prestige
48 Donkey
49 Clayton
50 Urban
51 One Nut
52 Cowhide
53 Montezuma
54 Moose
55 Donkey
56 Billy Chapel
11
57 Billy Chapel
58 Donkey
59 One Nut
60 Cowhide
61 Cowhide
62 Angry
63 One Nut
64 Clayon
65 Cowhide
66 Prestige
67 Grumpy
68 Cowhide
69 Grumpy
70 Ring
12
71 Ring
72 Grumpy
73 Ring
74 Grumpy
75 Angry Pirate
76 Clayton
77 Clayton
78 Urban
79 Angry Pirate
80 Cowhide
81 Grumpy
82 Cowhide
83 Clayton
84 Billy Chapel
13
85 Montezuma
86 Urban
87 Moose
88 Montezuma
89 Cowhide
90 Angry Pirate
91 Billy Chapel
92 Clayon
93 Angry Pirate
94 Cowhide
95 Keepin
96 Moose
97 Grumpy
98 Ring
14
99 Ring
100 Urban
101 Grumpy
102 Cowhide
103 Cowhide
104 Angry Pirate
105 Clayton
106 Urban
107 Cowhide
108 Cowhide
109 Montezuma
110 Moose
111 Donkey
112 Billy Chapel
15
113 Billy Chapel
114 Urban
115 Moose
116 Cowhide
117 Cowhide
118 Keepin
119 Urban
120 Clayon
121 Prestige
122 Prestige
123 Angry Pirate
124 Clayton
125 Keepin
126 Moose
16
127 Ring
128 Anal
129 Anal
130 Clayton
131 Prestige
132 Angry Pirate
133 Clayton
134 One Nut
135 Angry Pirate
136 Prestige
137 Urban
138 Moose
139 Donkey
140 Billy Chapel
17
141 Billy Chapel
142 Keepin
143 Moose
144 Montezuma
145 Keepin
146 Angry Pirate
147 Urban
148 One Nut
149 Angry Pirate
150 Prestige
151 Keepin
152 Anal
153 Anal
154 Clayton
18
155 Ring
156 Anal
157 Anal
158 Keepin
159 Prestige
160 Angry Pirate
161 Angry Pirate
162 Montezuma
163 Angry Pirate
164 Donkey
165 Montezuma
166 Moose
167 Donkey
168 Billy Chapel
19
169 Billy Chapel
170 Donkey
171 Anal
172 Keepin
173 Anal
174 Moose
175 Urban
176 Donkey
177 Angry Pirate
178 Anal
179 Keepin
180 Keepin
181 Grumpy
182 Anal
20
183 Angry Pirate
184 One Nut
185 Urban
186 Keepin
187 Prestige
188 Moose
189 Donkey
190 Urban
191 One Nut
192 Moose
193 Montezuma
194 Moose
195 One Nut
196 Billy Chapel
21
197 Billy Chapel
198 Donkey
199 Anal
200 Montezuma
201 Montezuma
202 Urban
203 Urban
204 Ring
205 One Nut
206 Prestige
207 Keepin
208 Anal
209 Keepin
210 Ring
22
211 Ring
212 One Nut
213 Anal
214 Keepin
215 Prestige
216 One Nut
217 Montezuma
218 Urban
219 Urban
220 Montezuma
221 Montezuma
222 One Nut
223 Donkey
224 Billy Chapel
23
225 Billy Chapel
226 Donkey
227 Urban
228 Montezuma
229 Prestige
230 One Nut
231 Donkey
232 Montezuma
233 Angry Pirate
234 Prestige
235 Keepin
236 Anal
237 Keepin
238 Ring
24
239 Ring
240 One Nut
241 Anal
242 Keepin
243 Prestige
244 Ring
245 Montezuma
246 Anal
247 One Nut
248 Prestige
249 Billy Chapel
250 Ring
251 Donkey
252 Billy Chapel

2012 Draft Lottery

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