Offseason guide can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OBOi0fhWtPmEeK3jHVg8yU13mlIuCiKOyR-el_VrMYg/edit#gid=822139138
Saturday, January 28, 2023
Friday, April 22, 2022
2022 Draft Review
ROUND 7
Best: OF Tyler ONeill STL (Grit B&B) – There’s a lot of swing and miss and not enough walks, but if there was one potential 5-category contributor in their mid-20s with a chance to be a fantasy star, it’s ONeill.
Runner-Up: SP Shane McClanahan TB (Donkey) – Soooo many pitchers taken early, but the one I feel most confident in being kept for the next five years, it’s this guy. I’m a big McClanafan.
Worst: C Will Smith LAD (Ex-Presidents) – Theoretically it sort of makes sense given that his 162 avg is 92/35/106/4/.363 and he’s 27 and there’s a DH. But this is the Dodgers are gonna Dodger and give him the customary time off, while sporting a deep roster of guys to put in the DH spot. Probably looking at number similar to last year, which are great… for a catcher… and not in the first round.
Runner-Up: P Shohei Ohtani-Pitcher LAA (Knuckle) – He’ll be good when he’s there, but he won’t always be. Knuckle kept four SPs and have a lineup anchored by a potential one hit wonder (Mullins) and a 3-cat ho-hummer (Castellanos).
X-Factor: 1B/3B Spencer Torkelson DET (Montezuma’s) – I was going hitter the whole way and the only one I would’ve taken over Tork is ONeill. As ready of a prospect as we will ever see with big four-category potential for the next decade.
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ROUND 8
Best: 1B/OF Kyle Shwarber PHI (One Nut) – Honestly, couldn’t have gone to a better spot this side of Colorado. Perfect fit for that lineup and he’s a surefire four category guy.
Runner-Up: SP Charlie Morton ATL (Ex-Presidents) – Nine SP picked to this point and everyone might’ve missed the best one. By underlying metrics, there were none better last year.
Worst: OF Jo Adell LAA (Freedom) – I had my eye on him too, but this is just too early for the amount of risk included.
Runner-Up: SP Jack Flaherty STL (One Nut) – Someone had to take him, but it wasn’t going to be me… at least not in the second round. This would be “worst” if Jason didn’t have so many early picks to burn.
X-Factor: SS Adalberto Mondesi KC (Montezuma’s) – I feel so much less confident in this one than the first X factor. But with Tatis out for a while, at least I got SBs out of the way. Still, with two rookies now and a long-term injury already on the roster, the floor of a sub-.200 part-time injury prone player may be fool hearty.
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ROUND 9
Best: SP Logan Gilbert SEA (Angry Pirates) – Again, a crazy amount of SPs taken at this point – 19 of 36 picks! - but one of the best ceiling/floor/long-term keeper takes in the draft was Gilbert. I think he’s a potential ace, but at worst he’s a fine SP4.
Runner-Up: OF Seiya Suzuki (Tomahawk) – Really was surprised he didn’t go closer to the first given the hype. This isn’t Hae-Soeng Kim coming over from the KBO. The Nippon League is legit competition and he has the looks of at least a fine 80/25/80/10/.340 player for the next 5 years.
Worst: SP Noah Syndergaard LAA (Brokeback) – There isn’t much of a case for Thor going this high outside of name value. He could be good, but he’s had one season of 180 IP, 200 K, sub-3.00/1.20 and that was six years ago.
Runner-Up: 1B Joey Votto CIN (Angry Pirates) – I know last season was great, but there were three straight season where he had 15 HR or less before that.
X-Factor: OF Christian Yelich MIL (Montazuma’s) – Like Mondesi, the range of outcomes here is quite high.
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ROUND 10
Best: SP John Means BAL (Angry Pirates) – A lot of bad luck went into last year’s numbers. Assuming that normalizes, the dramatic change in ballpark dimensions could make Means a top 30 arm.
Runner-Up: OF Austin Meadows DET (Grit B&B) – Even before the trade, which occurred minutes before this selection, it’s a little absurd to let a 30 HR/100 RBI bat fall this hard. Sure the platoon splits are there, but that also makes it pretty easy to know when to start him.
Worst: SP Michael Kopech CHW (Cowhide) – Always loved the talent, the player is a bit of an unreliable headcase and seems to be the type of person his old school manager hates most. On a per-inning basis, he should be pretty good but QSs will be hard to come by.
Runner-Up: SP Tarik Skubal DET (Napalm) – The arm is special, but the HR rate is uniquely terrible. It just means volatility will be part of his profile until that changes.
X-Factor: OF/C Daulton Varsho ARI (Freedom) – This is an early catcher I can get behind, with unique blend of speed, power, and advanced approach, topped off with C eligibility in a season where he likely won’t see one start there.
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ROUND 11
Best: SP Patrick Sandoval LAA (Ring) – I love Sandoval, but missed out on him in every league I’m in. There’s just a lot of clean underlying numbers that hint at potential ace this season.
Runner-Up: SS Dansby Swanson ATL (Knuckle) – He’s boring, sure, but that’s a lot of value at this point in the draft.
Worst: SP Stephen Strasburg WAS (Brokeback) – I’m hopeful and even slightly optimistic at a rebound, but there’s no way I’d call him a top 150 fantasy value this season.
Runner-Up: 3B Justin Turner LAD (Brokeback) – I know he’s a solid bat, and maybe he’s boosted by the DH spot, by he’s 38 and last year was the first time he reached 500 abs since he was 32.
X-Factor: 3B Yoan Moncada CHW (Cowhide) – I believe in the talent, the pedigree, and the COVID excuse, but at some point seeing is believing. Maybe the Sale for Moncada/Kopech deal just wasn’t as big as we thought at the time.
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ROUND 12
Best: SP Shane Baz TB (Montezuma’s) – In H2H, you really just need to be good enough to make the playoffs and then hope for the best. Baz’s surgery was to remove loose bodies, not fix a tendon or muscle. So recovery is expected to be relatively easy. He might not be here til mid June, but TB was going to keep his innings low anyway.
Runner-Up: SP Anthony DeSclafani SF (Grit B&B) – Tony Disco is perpetually underappreciated, but if he can stay healthy for 180 ip he’s an easy 170K 3.80/1.20.
Worst: SP Hyun Jin Ryu TOR (Donkey) – To be clear, I don’t hate the pick in what was a very solid round. But he didn’t get much of a warm-up in the spring and didn’t look good when he did. Given the injury history, its hard to trust him.
Runner-Up: SP Kyle Gibson PHI (Moose) – Again, about where he should be picked, but his numbers fell off once he went to Philly and that defense got even worse.
X-Factor: SP Hunter Greene CIN (Brokeback) – After picking a bunch of old boring guys, Watson picks perhaps the most exciting and potentially maddening player available. Huge arm, huge risk.
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ROUND 13
Best: SP Jesus Luzardo MIA (Brokeback) – Hard to take much from spring training, but if you’re going to take anything, sudden rises in MPH among high pedigree SPs is the thing. Great pick here.
Runner-Up: OF Dylan Carlson STL (Knuckle) – News that DC was going to be the new leadoff hitter in front Goldy/Arenado/ONeill is all you need to know. But the high pedigree and steady improvement just makes this potential keeper even better.
Worst: SP Trevor Bauer LAD (Donkey) – I was just out this year. Maybe it’ll come back to bite me, but we all saw what black balling did to Kaepernick. He’ll get another shot somewhere someday, but I wasn’t about to spend a lot to guess when.
Runner-Up: RP Liam Hendricks CHW (Donkey) – Fucking relievers.
X-Factor: OF Marcell Ozuna ATL (Napalm) – Never known as the hardest of workers, it makes you wonder what a year in purgatory did to a historically volatile hitter. Payoff could be huge, or he could waiver wire fodder.
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ROUND 14
Best: SS CJ Abrams SD – It was looking pretty clear he was going to make the opening day roster, so I loved this pick at this point in the draft. Easy speed with some pop. A whole lot of prospect risk, but the payoff could be huge at a point in the draft where people are often clinging to safety.
Runner-Up: SP Alex Cobb SF – The stuff has always been there, but now the velo is up and he’s in the SP rehab center of Major League Baseball. Solid with upside.
Worst: RP Aroldis Chapman NYY – I mean, he’s an RP, but he’s also showing signs of the wheels getting looser each season. His 1.31 WHIP was the first time he exceeded 1.15 in a decade.
Runner-Up: RP Craig Kimbrel LAD – See above.
X-Factor: SP Yusei Kikuchi TOR – Hard to know what to expect from this guy given the wide range of outcomes so far and streakiness. TOR certainly wasn’t the best spot for him, but there’s a potential 180K starter there.
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ROUND 15
Best: SP Alex Wood SF (Cowhide) – Wood has shown the ability to be a start when he’s healthy—and he is, and his velo is up. Strong buy here.
Runner-Up: 1B Bobby Dalbec BOS (Freedom) – It was a tale of two season for Bobby last year. The part after Schwarber was on the team made Bobby look like perennial 80/40/90/5/.330 guy. The one before that made him look like Rob Deer. I like the chance of him holding the latter profile.
Worst: OF Michael Conforto FA (Brokeback) – We didn’t know everything about his issues like we do now, but we knew he was talented and didn’t have a team, so it's hard to justify hanging onto him here – especially since he can’t go on the IL without a team.
Runner-Up: C Keibert Ruiz WAS (Ex-Presidents) – The pick is not bad as selecting a player without a team, but getting a second catcher (and one with a pretty mediocre fantasy profile) is just perplexing.
X-Factor: 3B/SS Eugenio Suarez SEA (Montezuma’s) – Last year was uniquely awful, but even if he splits the difference with the previous two seasons, this has the potential for outsized gains.
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ROUND 16
Best: SS Oneil Cruz PIT (Ex-Presidents) – If you’re going NA at this point, it should be for a guy who showed something when he was up already and would’ve gone 8 rounds earlier if he made the team out of spring training. Volatile profile, but big talent.
Runner-Up: 2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux LAD (Montezuma’s) – Once Pollock got dealt, the only thing standing between Lux and regular ABs was himself and he improved as last season wore down. Big post-hype sleeper here.
Worst: SP Eric Lauer MIL (Tomahawk) – There’s just nothing exceptional in the profile, but there is something exceptional nipping at his heals in the rotation (Ashby).
Runner-Up: SS Brendan Rodgers COL (Ex-Presidents) – I actually don’t hate the pick and was even looking at him around this time, I just can’t ever find statistical support for what made him such a big prospect.
X-Factor: SP Mitch Keller PIT (Tomahawk) – Speaking of post-hype sleepers, it’s hard not to get excited about a pitcher with pedigree that add 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason. However, the space between the ceiling and the floor could fit a small country.
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ROUND 17
Best: SP Drew Rasmussen TB (Ring) – Love the overall profile, but don’t love him being in TB, where it requires an act of Congress to allow a SP to go six innings.
Runner-Up: TIE RP Edwin Diaz NYM (Tomahawk) & RP Kenley Jensen ATL (Napalm) – Good example of what we wait for RPs in S+H leagues. Hendricks went four rounds before, but likely won’t have any more SHs than these two.
Worst: 3B Patrick Wisdom CHC (Napalm) – He had his moments last year, but was very streaky and CHC is rebuilding so they don’t have much reason to let a 31 yo has been play through a 3 for 40 streak.
Runner-Up: SP Zach Eflin PHI (Cowhide) – Not a horrible pick, but guys like Gonsloin, Pivetta, Cortes, Wright offered better upside with just as much risk.
X-Factor: 1B/OF Connor Joe COL (Freedom) – Interesting player I wouldn’t care much about outside of Colorado, but he’s got sneaky 80/25/80/.370 potential .
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ROUND 18
Best: OF Andrew Benintendi KC (Angry Pirates) – Pretty boring from a fantasy perspective, but he’s a very solid OF3 and could run even more this season.
Runner-Up: 1B Brandon Belt SF (Ex-President) – I sure would love to see a health season from Belt this year because if you take 2020-21 production combined you get 90/38/89/3/.390 in 475 abs.
Worst: OF Jarren Duran BOS (Cowhide) – Until we see what we’ve seen the last two springs show up in the regular season, he seems like a longshot to make an impact. One of those guys I could see putting it all together in four years, but on some other team.
Runner-Up: SP Merrill Kelly ARI (Moose) – Velo is up, but there’s a reason this guy gets bounced around fantasy teams all season. He’s just never consistent enough to roster for long periods.
X-Factor: OF Hunter Renfroe MIL (Angry Pirates) – The range of outcomes for this guy is perhaps as extreme as it gets for a MLB regular. That means some amazing streaks on both extremes.
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ROUND 19
Best: C Alejandro Kirk TOR (Brokeback) – Love the hit tool, love the DH hole, love the love TOR shows him. Could get full time ABs in a great lineup this year.
Runner-Up: RP Giovanny Gallegos STL (Angry Pirates) – I get the hesitancy to draft him among the top 10 RPs in a saves league, but his fall here doesn’t make much sense.
Worst: SP Kris Bubic KC (Knuckle) – I don’t see any value beyond the fact that you can call him Booby-C.
Runner-Up: SP MacKenzie Gore SD (Freedom) – Given the struggles last season, this is not the guy I would fill my lone NA spot with.
X-Factor: SP Nestor Cortes NYY (Freedom) – I was bummed and relieved not to get him. His numbers looks like a legit fantasy SP, but he looks like a legit Mario brother.
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ROUND 20
Best: SP Marco Gonzalez SEA (Moose) – It ain’t sexy, but it’s productive as hell in a QS league.
Runner-Up: RP Blake Treinen LAD (One Nut) – This guy might lead the league in S+H… and here he is in the 20th.
Worst: C Christian Vazquez BOS (Knuckle) – I’m 1000% certain at this point that the 66/23/72/4/.320 guy we saw in 2019 is the outlier and the 51/6/49/8/.308 we saw in 2021 is more of what to expect… you know… minus all the random steals.
Runner-Up: SS Tyler Wade LAA (Tomahawk) – He’s been in the league for five years and his cumulative line is 81/6/33/30/.300 in 461 abs. I don’t expect Maddon will suddenly make him a regular or that he’d do much with it if he was to become one.
X-Factor: 1B Keston Hiura MIL (Brokeback) – Milwaukee just seems to breed extreme outcomes for hitters. I would love to see his spring training stats translate to the lineup, but it’s hard to withstand any slow spells for a guy without a glove.
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ROUND 21
Best: OF Tommy Pham CIN (Angry Pirates) – I always have a soft spot for Pham, but I LOVE him in Cincinnati. Power, speed, patience combos like this aren’t typically found in the 21st.
Runner-Up: RP Corey Knebel PHI (Freedom) – I love this landing spot for Knebel and think he has as much a shot to accumulate 40 S+H as any pitcher.
Worst: C Travis Darnaud ATL (Grit B&B) – The days of him as an uber prospect have long past and left a total of one season with a line of at least 50/15/50/0/.300. It’s time to come to terms that he’s 33 and just kinda sucks most of the time.
Runner-Up: RP David Bednar PIT (Ex-Presidents) – If you’re not going to wait to pick up a bullpen until after the draft it’s important to at least pick up RPs on teams that win games. S+H can’t happen when there isn’t a lead to save or hold.
X-Factor: OF Ian Happ CHC (Moose) – The only thing assured in life is that Ian Happ will play like a top 20 player for 200 abs out of the season and a minor league bench player for 200 more abs, with another 200 abs of mediocrity in between.
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ROUND 22
Best: SP Grayson Rodriguez BAL (Ex-Presidents) – Now this is an effective use of an NA spot. Pretty sure he’s at least an SP4 as soon as he’s up, which shouldn’t be long.
Runner-Up: SS Bryson Stott PHI (Angry Pirates) – Hard to say how much he’ll play, but Bohm and Didi aren’t so entrenched that he can’t overtake either of them with solid play. This isn’t a star, but the profile is one of a top 15 fantasy player at his position at peak. Maybe it starts sooner rather than later?
Worst: 2B Vidal Brujan TB (Ring) – Like the player, hate the team. Given his issues as a hitter, I’m not sure how he ever carves out regular time at 2B or OF in TB, so it’s a wasted pick essentially. The talent is there, but I don’t see the opportunity coming.
Runner-Up: RP Gregory Soto DET (One Nut) – One of those picks that makes sense in a traditional Saves league, but here it looks like you’re just baking in a blow up or two per week. There were plenty of safer options out there.
X-Factor: SP Andrew Heaney LAD (One Nut) – I swore off him this year, even though his team situation couldn’t be much better. He has just been so prone to the occasional, completely unpredictable blowup, that I don’t have the stomach for it anymore. But he still has the stuff and control.
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ROUND 23
Best: 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn CHW (Freedom) – Man, Larussa is the freaking worst. I hate everything about how he’s been used. Hopefully he settles into a regular position now, but it’s hard to be confident.
Runner-Up: SP Garret Whitlock BOS (Cowhide) – Every year, one player reminds us that we should draft for talent, not position. Whitlock may be the guy this year.
Worst: SP Domingo German NYY (Napalm) – I can’t wait to pick him up off the wire for a spot start in August and hate myself for doing so.
Runner-Up: C Joey Bart SF (Ex-President) – Know what your immense dearth of starting pitching didn't need at this point in the draft? A third catcher.
X-Factor: 2B Cavan Biggio TOR (Napalm) – I don’t know what to think of this guy anymore. He looked like a surefire 80/20/80/20/.360 guy a year ago and now I’m not even sure he plays every day. I’d love for him to get a shot, but hard to argue with the reasoning not to let him.
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ROUND 24
Best: Everything JED - Jed traded so much capital to improve keepers and he really made the most of the picks he got sent back in return:
SS Anthony Volpe NYY (Donkey) – Given Yahoo’s rigid structure, the NA spot really needs to be dedicated to someone you think you can put right into your lineup once they’re up. Volpe may be the best option in baseball given his lack of proximity but potential promise for late season or next.
OF Jesus Sanchez MIA (Donkey) – Sanchez had more ups than downs last year after he crushed the minors most of last year. He has no one keeping him from full time ABs and the hard hit data shows he could blossom.
2B Kolten Wong MIL (Donkey) – MIL has a good lineup and Wong is right on top of it, making this pick 100/15/60/20/.340 in the bank. I loved this pick.
OF Andrew McCutchen (Donkey) – What did Cutch ever do to deserve this kind of treatment? Just give you 78/27/80/6/.334 and zero reason to think he can’t do it again. Shame on us all!
Worst: Everyone who isn’t JED.
X-Factor: SP Nick Martinez SD (Moose) – He crushed overseas and add like 4 mph since he couldn’t cut it on the Rangers staff a few years ago. He wouldn’t be the first player to transform overseas, so sign me up as interested in what he’s bringing back to the states.
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Tuesday, March 29, 2022
2022 H&T Pre-Draft Rankings
Keepers ranked outside the top 100 included:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 102
- Bobby Witt Jr. 103
- Rhys Hoskins 108
- Max Muncy 114
- Pablo López 124
- Clayton Kershaw 135
- Jarred Kelenic 146
- Joey Gallo 149
- Chris Sale 167
- Julio Rodriguez 296
BUT that's why they play the games, so they say...
DRAFT is Monday 4/4, promptly at 830 pm. We really can't draft any later than that as we still need time for the first round of waivers, which I've temporarily set at one day (usually two days). I will turn it back after the first round. This will mean you will want to place waiver claims on Tuesday after the draft, which will process Wednesday. Then it'll be open season on the free agents in time for opening day on Thursday.
Gibby has graciously set up a Zoom for the draft. This was a lot of fun last year so try to make it this year if you can
Join Zoom Meeting
https://success.zoom.us/j/93683840983?pwd=ZDcxY3cxOHB0YkQ4YlZueE1KMEUzZz09
Meeting ID: 936 8384 0983
Passcode: 293027
One tap mobile
+16468769923,,93683840983# US (New York)
+16699006833,,93683840983# US (San Jose)
Monday, July 26, 2021
High & Tight Update
Its week 16 and we are just a week and a half from the start of the open trading period, so I thought it would be a good time to do an update on the league. It's been amazing to have a pretty normal season. COVID is still here, but it hasn't shut down teams for weeks at a time and hopefully you too have been able to catch a live game this season. Hopefully collective bargaining doesn't cause a hiccup in 2022 because that could be disastrous for long-term interest in MLB.
It's really been a great season with some amazing, historical performances - whether it s the record number of no hitters, Shohei Fever, or the emergence of young players and surprises like Adolis Garcia. Doesn't hurt that the Sox are amazing and a lot of fun to watch. What a difference a year makes.
Fees
Most people have not paid. So far, Dave and Chad are all set. Please everyone else pay via Paypal in the next week or so - adrok71@yahoo.com.
Everyone owes $100 beside Gibby ($130) and Jason ($115) due to last and second to last place finishes in 2020.
Rankings
Sorry for the lack of Real Rankings. It's been particularly challenging to find time for everything Id like to. I hope that will change before next season.
See above. There's some very interesting and considerable differences between performance and their place in the actual standings. The most prominent is Jason, who is on the outside looking in at the playoffs right now, but who has produced the second best stats of any team. That's quite a bit of bad luck. This stuff tends to even out over the course of a season, but we have had teams be way off for one reason or another. Chad also has a much worse record than performance suggests. That is a little more palatable when you look at the average performance in total as Chad is the first in a massive group of teams comprising half the league with an average between 6.0 and 6.9. This has played out in real life too as the standings behind Montezumas has fluctuated considerably all season.
So, who is selling and who is buying? Gibby has been working on his rebuild for a while now and has accumulated a nice group of young players. Dagan is talking deals too. Shomphe is in the middle of building a house and selling a house with 4 kids, but seems primed to go into rebuild mode too when trading opens up. Everyone else has a shot to be in the top 8. But open trading can be appealing.
Open Trading
The trade deadline is Thurs 8/19. I have no clue why I only had Thursdays as options, but that's what we have (it's usually a Sunday) and I can't change it. So that mean open trading period start on Thurs 8/5 at 12:01 am -- 10 days from now.
Reminder: "The open trading period will take place two weeks prior to the trading deadline, when teams may trade up to two future picks in Rounds 7-10. There is no limit on the number of picks a team may receive."
If you're selling a top performer, it may behoove you to announce on Slack or on the Yahoo message board.
Chat Forums
Will be interested in looking at changing the messaging platforms. I have two leagues that use GroupMe and they tend to be a lot more active. It's a bit more logical and user friendly than Slack I think, but would be interest in hearing others opinions.
Payout
Regular season champion: 25% of total prize pool
Playoff champion: 50% of total prize pool
2nd place (playoffs): 25% of total prize pool
2nd place (regular season): $100
Reminders
Please continue to playout the season even after Open Trading. If you see someone not setting lineups on a regular basis, please reach out. Repeat offenders will be fined.
We are limited to 60 free agent/wire pickups during the regular season. Some people are getting up there, so plan accordingly. You get 3 pickups/week during the playoffs.
Trades are processed the morning after they are executed by the teams. I cannot execute a trade immediately, even if you ask nice.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021
2021 Draft Review
Round 7
Best: OF Randy Arozarena TB (Moose) – I know everyone was
focused on starting pitching, but this is a unique young talented prospect with
playing time that you rarely find available in the draft. His historic
postseason performance alone changed him from waiver wire fodder and a late
pick to a legend and a surefire keeper for years to come.
Runner-up: SP Zac Gallen ARI (Donkey) – Hindsight is 20/20
and this was a highly unusual circumstance given how little we know of the
injury at the time, but gotta give props to Jed for taking a risk. Looks like
it will payoff handsomely, possibly for years to come.
Worst: OF Nick Castellanos CIN (One Nut) – Nit picky as most
first rounders were chalk, but this is an example of when Yahoo rankings aren’t
quite accurate. At 29, with a lifetime 162-game average of 77/23/85/2/.324,
Casty doesn’t have any standout skills and doesn’t even walk at a good rate or
contribute to SBs. Give me Gallo’s career 89/41/89/7/.330 at two years younger
and a round later… or Sano… or Franmil… or Kepler…
Runner-up: SP Zach
Wheeler PHI (Cowhide) – I don’t really have a problem here; he’s just the worst
of the first round SPs. I’d like him a lot more if his K/9 didn’t drop to 6.7
last year, but for someone with a lot of high picks it makes sense for Dave to
start with stability.
X Factor: 3B Ke’Bryan
Hayes PIT (Montezumas) – When I traded into the first, I was fully planning to
take an SP, but everyone I was considering was taken. Hayes reminds me a bit of
Lindor, who was supposedly a defense-first prospect, then came up and never
stopped hitting. The 2020 production in 24 games amounts to a 107/32/69/6/.442
season. That’s a pretty small sample, but not insignificant. Unfortunately he’s
on PIT too. Lots of risk here.
Round 8
Best: OF Joey Gallo TEX (Montezumas) – The overall body of
work in 2020 wasn’t great, but it’s important to view all 2020 stats in the
context provided. When you take 2019-20 rate of production over 600 abs, it’s a
superb 88/37/86/7/.351 line. And he’s still just 27! If the dead ball is real,
mashers may be super valuable again.
Runner-up: UT Nelson Cruz MIN (Donkey) – In every sport,
there are examples of players who defy age—and Cruz’s job is cushier than
most of them. Even at 40, sitting on the
bench and getting up five times to crush balls and jot around the bags isn’t
going to cause a lot of strain. The age risk
is well worth this draft slot, especially when he has been an automatic
90/40/100/.360 the last SEVEN seasons.
Worst: SP Dinelson Lamet SD (Ex-Presidents) – Elbow issues that
started a year ago and carried into the next season? That’s a hard pass for me,
no matter how talented he is.
Runner-up: SP Chris Paddack SD (S. Napalm) – There were some
warts that were hidden in the impressive numbers during his breakout 2019
campaign that became apparent last year. The hype hasn’t died down enough, so
the draft slot may be warranted but the fact that he has never developed a
quality third pitch is a big concern. Though I can’t blame anyone for looking
for SP upside.
X-Factor: SP Julio
Urias LAS (Montezumas) – Speaking of SP upside… it’s a lot easier to take
chances when you have four of the top 30 picks. Still, for all of the hype (I
mean “Mexican King Felix” was supposed to be a complement when he first came
around), Urias’ production is ho hum with 8.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 and a 3.45/1.24
in his career. Just 24 and healthy with no inning limit, it’s time to see where
this goes.
Round 9
Best: SP Joe Musgrove
SD (Grit B&B) – One of the underlying stats I always like to look at is
K-BB% as it is hard to disguise the frequency in which a players strikes out or
walks batters. BUT it can be deceiving if the K rate is insane as it allows for
a strong K-BB even with an equally extreme walk rate. Of the FA starters
available, the SPs that had a K% of at least 24.0% and a walk rate below 6.5%
included Musgrove, all the TJS stars, Paddack, and Jordan Montgomery. He’s just
28 and this could be the season it all comes together.
Runner-up: SP Pablo
Lopez MIA (Cowhide) – Pablo has quietly become a burgeoning ace. His K upside
has always been questionable, but he added a fifth legit pitch in the last year
and has never struggled in four seasons – despite only just turning 25 a few
weeks ago. At worst he’s a solid SP4. At best, he’s an ace.
Worst: C Yasmani Grandal CHW (Knuckle) – As a guy who holds
off drafting a catcher until the late rounds or sometimes not at all, I can’t
underwrite spending a top pick on a catcher under normal circumstances– even
one as good as Grandal. But when you’ve
already kept a catcher, this is just confusing.
Runner-up: OF Teoscar Hernandez TOR (Ring) – This presents a
somewhat hypocritical evaluation as I was both surprised to see TScar last this
long and even more surprised to see the ever-OBP-conscious Dagan select him.
With a lifetime 32% K rate, TScar’s consistent.230/.300 production in every
seasons preceding 2020, tendency for monumental streakiness, and being one
(cheap) cog in a crowded lineup of emerging hitters sounds like a lesson in
frustration.
X-Factor: SP Lance McCullers HOU (One Nut) – Can you believe
he’s just 27? Can you believe he has averaged 26.5% K rate and 11.9% SwStr%
(swinging strike percentage) during his career? Can you believe he’s never
thrown more than 129 innings in a season? Good spot to take him on a deep
roster, but who knows if he’ll be available late in the season.
B-Factor(?): OF Byron Buxton MIN (S. Naplam) – After years
of including him in this write up (and being correct each time), it seems wrong
to not include him, so he gets his own category. As I mentioned during the draft Buxton’s 2019-20
rates translate to an insane 93/32/102/22…. and .299. So, that’s a legit 4-cat
stud, but the OBP can’t be ignored --- because it is not just a category he
doesn’t contribute to, he actually hurts you,
Making him more like a 3.5-cat stud. Like any other player that can’t take a base
or hit for high average (Sal Perez, for example), you just need to balance your
roster accordingly. With Freddie Freeman and Mike Trout on roster and sporting
the most consistent annual .400+ OBPs in the league, I will underwrite the
selection for this specific roster. My argument was always that his approach
would prevent him from being “the next Trout” in the OBP leagues we roll, and
that remains the case. I think he’d be better in the 12-13th round. For
the record, I think Lourdes Gurriel, Franmil Reyes, Dominic Smith, and Trey
Mancini will be more valuable overall. BUT for what it’s worth, I don’t hate the
pick.
Round 10
Best: 3B Alex Bohm PHI (S. Napalm) – There is a high
correlation between players with great pedigree who succeed immediately upon being
called up and long-term, viable annual keepers. Bohm is an athletic corner
infielder with pop and surprising speed that I thought would be taken no later
than the second round.
Runner-up: OF Victor
Robles WAS (Grit B&B) – Often people are too early on players and then
completely give up on them as players too early. Robles has always had great
pedigree, but his initial struggles in the bigs were predictable given the
obvious holes in his approach. With a little more patience and placement at the
top of a pretty good Nats lineup, this could be the last year he is available
to be drafted for quite a while.
Worst: SP Chris Sale BOS (Brokeback) – I mean, I get it, the
SP run was insane. But this is Round 10!
Many legit stars have been traded for 10th rounders in this league. Instead of a great one, Watson got a big name
who may be back in June but likely won’t be back to his normal self until
August – plenty of time to fall our of the playoff race completely.
Runner-up: SP Mike Soroka ATL (S. Napalm) – Sort of the same
deal, except the injury and the upside is less extreme. Soroka is a rates-only
guy, so you’re immediately down to 3 categories of real contribution and the
Braves are going to take their time getting him back. Risk not worth the
reward.
X-Factor: SP Tyler Mahle CIN (Angry Pirates) – A lot of
industry people love Mahle and expect him to blow up this year, despite
middling results most of his career. But
he’s just 25 years old and with a 25% K rate and decent walk rate, there reason
to be excited. Still would’ve liked him a lot more a few rounds later.
Round 11
Best: OF Franmil
Reyes CLE (Grit B&B) – So much of fantasy baseball drafting is knowing when
to zig when others are zagging. There were a lot of third and fourth tier SPs
going around this time, but Shomphe went with the best player available and got
a great one. No one knows how the dead ball will affect players, but we know it
won’t impact Franimal and his 115 mph max exit velocity. The OF eligibility in
Yahoo and an improving 9% walk rate, this is a legit four-cat player with
upside.
Runner-up: SP Zach Eflin PHI (Freedom) – Eflin is an emerging
SP that has a solid repertoire which have contributed to a serviceable
middle-of-the rotation type. Just 26, minor
improvements in K and BB rates could pull him from the mid tier to the top
tier.
Worst: RP Liam Hendricks CHW (Freedom) – Sorry Hunt, it’s
tradition. First RP selected = worst pick of the round. Sure he’s great, elite
even. But in a S+H league, with everyone rostering 7-10 SPs, his Ks have a
minimal impact on week-to-week production. The impact on rates is also low
given that RPs only have 20-30% of the innings that a traditional starter has.
So you’re looking in total at about two categories of contribution total. And
then you have to consider the value of the replacement level player for the S+H
category. Looking at S+H leaders the
last two seasons, you don’t have to go far to find a top contributor who didn’t
get any saves at all. Hendricks’ top setup
guy the last couple seasons. Jake Diekman, had 44 SH in 2019-20 vs. 47 for
Hendricks – and he was a FA after the draft.
Runner-up: 1B Andrew Vaughn CHW (Montezumas) – Vaughn has tons of upside in an OBP league,
but power might be just OK and it’s possible he’s just a Hosmer type. Eloy
clarified the playing time issue I think. With OF eligibility on the way, he
could be valuable. But Dom Smith was waiting there with both eligibilities and
less risk, so this was a stupid pick.
X-Factor: UT Shohei Ohtani LAA (B) (Tomahawk) – I honestly
don’t know what to do with this guy in Yahoo leagues. Is he getting full-time
ABs this season or not? His 162-game average is top tier, but not realistic. If
he’s part time, it’s hard to dedicate a valuable bench spot to a part-time
UTIL-only. But I fully admit I could be completely wrong here.
Round 12
Best: 1B/OF Dom Smith
NYM (Freedom) – Probably wouldn’t have fallen this far if the universal DH was
still available, but I think he still plays every day and produces like a
keeper for next year. Just 25, his production over the last two seasons amounts
to 94/32/102/2/.366 over 600 abs. Many will regret not jumping on this slide
earlier.
Runner-up: SP John
Means BAL (Cowhide) – The surface level stats were nothing to write home about
last season and his xFIP and SIERA were pretty much rubbish too. But there was
a clear improvement over the course of the season in 2020, which followed a
strong 2019 debut, so the 26 yo could be some minor adjustments away from a
strong SP3 option. At this point in the
draft, is gold – and to Dave, with his draftboard – it’s just gravy.
Worst: C/OF Daulton Varsho ARI (Cowhide) – While I don’t
blame Dave for looking for upside from the C position and perhaps find an
advantage with an eventual C-eligible bench bat, Varsho sucked last year and
then he sucked in the spring. Would’ve been better off getting a great RP to
finish up the Cowhide draft and getting a waiver wire NA because Varsho
probably wouldn’t have been drafted.
Runner-up: OF Jarren Duran BOS (Ring) – I mean, I like him
and everything, but jeez. Maybe he gets
called up and maybe he shows a lot more power than he did in the minors and
maybe a better walk rate… but I’m pretty sure he could’ve been had much later.
X-Factor: OF Kyle
Lewis SEA (S. Napalm) – It was a tale of two halves for Lewis last season, who
came out like gangbusters and then fell flat. It’s definitely worthwhile to see
which one shows up, but that M’s outfield is interesting. If Lewis starts cold,
he could be waving at Jarred Kelenic on his way down to Tacoma to “work on
things.”
Round 13
Best: OF Jesse Winker CIN (Ex-Presidents) – It’s sometimes
hard to gauge Winker because he seems to always be at varying levels of
production and either being platooned or injured. But make no mistake about it,
he’s young, powerful, excellent patience and a regular at the top of a good
lineup.
Runner-up: SP Andrew Heaney LAA (Ring) – As previously
noted, I’m a sucker for a good K-BB% guy and Heaney has always been that. Each
season it seems feels like a true ace season is coming, but it always falls
short, often because of injury. He’s prone to the occasional blow-up, but the
skillset is better than many SPs going before him.
Worst: RP Josh Hader MIL (S. Napalm) – Yeah, still don’t
like it. Interesting that it’s another example of a closer whose setup guy was
actually more valuable last year and could’ve been had later in the draft.
Runner-up: 1B Bobby Dalbec BOS (One Nut) – I love Bobby.
He’s fun to watch and I have no doubt there’s success in his future. But a
steady stream of big league pitches getting acquainted with the massive holes
in his swing (42.4% K rate in 23 games last season) is going to create a
massive OBP hole in the lineup.
X-Factor: SP Framber Valdez HOU (One Nut) – It was hard to
know where Valdez was heading at this point in the season, but it sounds like
he could be back from a broken finger in short order. He made WAY more sense
than the TJS guys at this point in the draft and is a legit SP4 with SP2
upside.
Round 14
Best: TIE SP Christian Javier HOU (Moose) & SP Freddy
Peralta MIL (Montezumas) – Tie here because it’s basically the same
description. At this point in the draft, both these players have the same
strengths and weaknesses: phenomenal K upside & starting jobs/lacking third
quality pitch & questionable control. But it made perfect sense at this
point in the draft and is a nice balance of risk vs. reward.
Runner-up: OF Max Kepler MIN (Donkey) – I know 2020 was a
let down coming off 2019 (98/36/90/1/.336), but there’s legit talent that
lessens the likelihood that the season was a huge outlier. Savvy pick by Jed.
Worst: SP Ryan Yarborough TB (Ring) – The mehness of Yarborough
just is too overwhelming. I mean, he’s fine. He’s just… meh.
Runner-up: SP Shohei Ohtani LAA (P) (Angry) – Again, I
admittedly don’t know what to do here. It was a pretty good round for
selections, so don’t take it personally. I just always look at him and am never
able to pull the trigger. This season thought, I’d prefer the hitter Ohtani by
quite a bit.
X-Factor: SP Trevor Rogers MIA (Moose) – Rogers is one of
those players that fell short of most 12- and 14-team short lists, but turned
heads with the statement in the spring. He was striking out guys all over the
place and finds himself in a great situation to thrive and provide immediate
value. But it was also spring and he was always just a good prospect, so he
could be waiver wire fodder shortly. I
did want him though.
Round 15
Best: 1B Miguel Sano
MIN (Montezuma’s) – Little Miggy has been a keeper for a while, so to see him
slide to this point was quite surprising in an OBP league. The last two season his rates amount to
100/44/97/0/.325. With 3B eligibility in Yahoo, he’s even more yummy.
Runner-up: 3B Ryan McMahon (Montezuma’s) – It’s always hard
to grade my own drafts, but I sure did like my round 15. McMahon is finally
going to get full time run at Coors and has shown 80/30/90/5/.330 potential in
the past, so this was a great grab at this point.
Worst: OF Joc Pederson CHC (Tomahawk) – I’ve been there and
I can see the appeal, but having lived through Joc seasons a few times, I’ve
given up hope. He is never ever going to
hit lefties. It doesn’t matter if he’s going to be in the lineup every day. He’s
had 356 at bats to show he can produce and it’s just pathetic .188/.261/.303. Like Rafael Belliard territory. Sure, platoon
him, but he’s taking up a spot that could be filled by someone offering more
upside at this point in the draft.
Runner-up: SP Brady Singer KC (Grit B&B) – The control
just isn’t there and I’m not sure it’s going to improve quickly at 23 yo. Stuff
is just OK. Seems destined for frustration.
X-Factor: SP Robbie Ray TOR (Freedom) – SPEAKING of
frustration… there is no greater dispersion between potential outcomes of any
player in major league history than Robbie Freaking Ray. But with the
consistent velocity throughout the spring, there is at least hope that we’ll
see the pitcher that has achieved 200+ Ks in a season three times, despite
never throwing more than 175 innings.
Round 16
Best: OF Dylan Carlson STL (S. Naplam) – My pick of the
draft. Really, I thought he’d go much sooner given the pedigree and playing
time. I can see why he slid. He did not
impress at all in his first go round last season, but he went back down and
came up a different player in the playoffs. He displayed much better patience –
the kind he showed throughout the minors – and could very well be
80/20/80/20/.340 guy this season, with the potential to add 10s to each of
those season long totals in short order.
Runner-up: SP Yusei Kikuchi SEA (Freedom) – What a strange
draft. It’s really hard finding upside at this point, and on the surface,
Kikuchi doesn’t have the 2020 stats to make him even a little interesting. BUT
velocity gains are one of the most critical stats when looking for emerging
players. And he’s been consistently higher. It’s clear there is no playbook
when it comes to pitchers coming to the majors from Asia, so the crap we’ve
experienced thus far could just be a blip at the start of a decent career.
Worst: SP Carlos Rodon CHW (One Nut) – With a career walk
rate of 10.0% and a long history of injuries, I’m quite confident Rodon will
forever be a big name with bad results.
Runner-up: SP Mike Minor KC (Moose) – Star prospect >
struggling SP > SP star > Injured > star reliever > decent SP >
keeper SP > junk SP, Mike Minor is a game of fantasy Russian Roulette.
X-Factor: OF Nick
Senzel CIN (Ring) – I’m not sure he’s allowed to be an X factor any more after
this season, so he better produce. There’s a 90/20/80/20/.350 bat there
somewhere, but we thought that about David Dahl too.
Round 17
Best: OF Brandon
Nimmo NYM (Knuckle) – Nimmo is criminally underrated and, unlike Joc, actually
has a fighting chance against lefties (.248/.367/.405), so there is a strong
case to never platoon him. One of the few players that could legitimately
average .400 OBP for his career and chip in in all the other categories too.
Runner-up: SP Taijuan Walker NYM (Knuckle) – Given the
amount of SPs that are being taken as longshot, how did a 28 year-old with great
pedigree coming off a 2.70/1.16 season with 8.4 K/9 slip like this?
Worst: SP Brad Keller KC (Grit B&B) – Apparently we’re
just on a run of barf-inducing KC pitchers the last three rounds. Remember
K-BB%? 17.0 K% and 9.4 BB% is waaaaay too fucking close.
Runner-up: SP AJ Puk OAK (Brokeback) – I like him, but just
not this year. He’s going to get dicked around between SP and RP and minors, so
he’s hardly worth rostering until he settles.
X-Factor: SP Casey Mize DET (Ring) – There really wasn’t
much to like about what he did last year, but that’s why rookie pitchers are a
poor investment 90% of the time. But this pedigree is too good to ignore and
one year he’s going to blow up. Might as well see if this is the year.
Round 18
Best: 1B/3B/OF Hunter Dozier KC (Ex-Presidents) – Under the
radar, but just solid all around contributor. You can count on 75/25/75/5/.340
with lots of position eligibility and potential for more. Not sexy, but solid.
Runner-up: 1B Eric Hosmer SD (Moose) – There’s some reason
to believe Hos’ power improvements were real last year and that he’s not just a
modern day Mark Grace. Hitting in the heart of the SD lineup, it’s at least an
automatic 90 RBIs and a great piece to add to a solid lineup at this point in
the draft.
Worst: SP David Price LAD (Brokeback) – It was clear before
the draft that Price was heading to the bullpen. Maybe he finds his way back to
the rotation eventually, but it will probably be on a different fantasy team.
Runner-up: SP Michael Kopech CHW (S. Napalm) – Nothing wrong
with the skills, but this guy has a long history of non-baseball related issues
even before the BoSox drafted him. Doesn’t sound like sitting out last year
really had anything to do with COVID and his passion for the game has long been
questioned. As a glorified reliever at this point, not really interested in anything
other than a late flier.
X-Factor: 1B Rowdy Tellez TOR (Freedom) – With steadily
improving K rates and big power/patience, I’m a big Rowdy guy and am hoping
this big guy gets Rowdy this season. But it is a super crowded lineupand he has
the least impressive resume of the bunch, so ABs this season could be as hard
to find as his actual abs are hard to find underneath that fluff.
Round 19
Best: SP Matthew Boyd DET (Tomahawk) – For all of the risk
people were willing to assume, why was no one all over a player who pumped out
238 Ks in 185 IP in 2019? He actually has really good command too. Not sure
what happened last year, but he’s much better than that. Great move by Chad.
Runner-up: SP Jake Odorizzi HOU (Montezuma’s) – Again, there
were a lot of risky picks well before this point in the draft. What’s wrong
with a 31 yo with a 162-game average of 3.95/1.24 and 175 Ks? Perfect SP5 on a
team that has him as an SP9.
Worst: SP/RP Carlos Martinez STL (S. Naplam) – It would be
helpful for everyone if C-Mart just changed his name completely at this point.
He’s not a top shelf young flame thrower anymore – he’s either an RP with a
control problem or an SP that can’t make it 5 innings.
Runner-up: OF Lorenzo Cain MIL (Donkey) – Nothing wrong with
the pick at this point, just calling my shot that a 35 yo that just sat out a
season won’t be bouncing back to his old form again.
X-Factor: SP Tony Gonsolin LAD (Tomahawk) – I think Gonsolin is a top 75 pitcher in the league, but he’s a Dodger and that means his role will be in a state of flux. If you can stomach the long relief for a while, at some point he will be performing at an SP4 level for an SP8 cost.
Round 20
Best: RP Ryan Pressly HOU (Brokeback) – A lot of RPs were
taken at this point and Watson somehow stole a top 5 RP late.
Runner-up: OF Jo Adell LAA (S. Napalm) – Looking at minor
league BB/K rates can be one of the most instructive ways of determining which
players come up an immediately succeed. Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis’s numbers
were insane. Adell’s were not, so it’s not surprising at all that he came up
and whiffed 40% of the time. He’s gonna be a good one at some point, and it may
not happen this year, but he’ll get a chance – and there’s nothing more you
could ask from your NA spot.
Worst: SP Mike Clevinger SD (S. Napalm) – It’s one thing to
draft a TJS guy coming back this season. It’s another thing to draft someone
that is going to need to come back next season as a keeper to be of any value and
will have to occupy an IL slot all year. He’s not a spring chicken either, so
this is a wasted pick in my mind.
Runner-up: SP Tanner
Houck BOS (Ring) – I actually like what I’ve seen from majors Houck quite a
bit, but minors Houck walked 11% of the batters he faced in the minors. That
went down to 3.8% in the cup of coffee last year. Walk rates don’t tend to
improve as you face better hitters, so….
X-Factor: RP Amir Garrett CIN (S. Napalm) – There’s a lot to
like about this live arm (struck out all 9 batters he faced in Spring
training), but the RP situation in CIN is a bit muddied. Still, I could see him
being a top 5 RP for years to come.
Round 21
Best: RP Matt Barnes BOS (Moose) – He’s always been a great
talent. This year he’s got less competition for the closer role and he’s about
to become a FA. Big season on the way.
Runner-up: SS Willi Castro DET (Grit B&B) – Admittedly
didn’t know much about Willi last year, but he quietly put together rates that
amount to a 75/20/75/10/.340 hitter. You’ll take that all day at this point in
the draft… even if he’s a Tiger.
Worst: SP John Gant STL (Moose) – There is nothing about this
profile (28 yo, career 7.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 30 games started, 106 games
relieving) that says he should anywhere near a fantasy roster.
Runner-up: RP Pete Fairbanks TB (Cowhide) – Not a whole lot
of issues with picks in this round, I just don’t have Fairbanks very high on my
list due to control issues and TB being shartwaffles when it comes to defined bullpen
roles.
X-Factor: SP/RP Tejay
Antone CIN (Tomahawk) – See Gonsolin, Tony. (Picking great pitchers with
uncertain roles is a great way to attack this part of the draft.)
Round 22
Best: RP Jordan Hicks STL (Knuckle) – Something about a
pitcher that can sling 103 mph with consistency and accuracy that just gets the
juices flowing. The role may be a little undefined initially, but make no
mistake, he’s the RP to own in STL.
Runner-up: 1B Jared Walsh LAA (Ring) – There’s a lot to like
about what Walsh did in his cup of coffee last year, which followed a tea cup
in 2019. All told, his 162-game average is 73/29/89/0/.321, but he’s 27 with
upside. Playing time is a bit of a concern with Ohtani and Pujols around, but
talent typically wins out.
Worst: OF JD Davis NYM (Freedom) – Just never been that
interested in him (162ga is 67/20/54/2/.348) and now he’s in a crowded lineup
with no DH and sucks hard at defense. Seems destined for the waivers.
Runner-up: RP Lucas Sims CIN (Ex-Presidents) – Fine with the
talent and role, but a known injury is something I try to avoid early on.
X-Factor: SS Willy Adames TB (Freedom) – Poor Willy. The
second he came up and couldn’t follow up on his great rookie season, people
started going ga-ga over Wander. Adames is just 25 and he’s battled some
injuries, but is fully capable of a 80/25/80/10/.330 season, and maybe much
more.
Round 23
Best: - RP Drew Pomeranz SD (Tomahawk) – He’s a top 10 RP in
S+H leagues and its baffling he dropped this far.
Runner-up: SP Jose Quintana LAA (S. Napalm) – One of my
fantasy favorites over the years. I either drafted him or traded for him almost
every year in his prime due to strong not great Ks and consistent rates.
Injuries and velocity concerns have caught up, but he was slinging solid in
spring.
Worst: RP Joakim Soria ARI (Grit B&B) – In S+H leagues,
best thing to do is go for talent and good teams. Soria is old, had a poor
spring, and is an Arizona D-bag.
Runner-up: RP Richard Rodriguez PIT (Brokeback) – He’s
pretty good, but you need to win to get a S+H... and this may be the worst
roster I’ve ever seen. Best hope will be
if he gets traded to a contender, but he’ll probably be dropped by then.
X-Factor: OF Sam Hilliard COL (Brokeback) – Just look at the
2019 AAA line and dream: 109/35/101/22/.335… now wake up and realize COL is
where young fringy talent goes to DIE!
Round 24
Best: RP Hector Neris PH (Brokeback) – Philly is going to be
good and even if we didn’t know for sure Neris was the closer, he’s the best
reliever there and was bound to be a solid RP in this league. Could’ve been
drafted 5 rounds prior and made sense.
Runner-up: SP Nick Pivetta BOS (Angry) – Love this because
there’s no risk, but a ton of upside. Pivetta has a great repertoire that
hasn’t quite translated to sustained success but has shown up big in games
along the way.
Worst: C Adley Rutschman BAL (S. Napalm) – The only thing
worse than wasting an NA slot on a rookie catcher is not having an NA spot open,
forcing you to waste a bench spot on him.
Runner-up: SP Randy Dobnak MIN (Freedom) – Dobber is a
perfectly fine piece for a major league club, but a 5.7 K/9 ain’t helping no
one in fantasy.
X-Factor: SP Logan Gilbert SEA (Tomahawk) – If willingness
to take a walk is a harbinger of success for young hitterw, unwillingness to
give up a walk is one for young pitchers. The stuff is something less than
elite, but Gilbert’s K rates ranged from 29-43% in his three minor league
season, while his walk rate has remained below 8%. This is a pitcher that could
come up and contribute immediately on a team with some questionable rotation members.
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
2021 Offseason Rankings
It's time to get the hot stove fired up again. There were a few trades in December, but it has been largely quiet since then. Below are the current, somewhat scientific rankings at the current moment. The draftboard scores are an algorithm that awards points for each round and creates an overall score, which is reflected in the offseason guide. The keeper scores are more subjective. It is important to understand that even though it is a keeper league, we're ranking for the 2021 season. So, it does not take into account future value, but rather likelihood of 2021 value. It also assumes everyone is keeping the six players I have the highest score for from your present roster. So even though I will probably keep Kelenic, my team score is based on keeping LeMaheiu -- as I don't assume to know who you are all planning to keep.
The offseason guide can be found by CLICKING HERE. So check it out and lets get dealing!
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1. Montezuma’s Revenge (Adam)
Keepers: 1st
Draftboard: 4th
Hard to compete with Soto, Tatis, and
Mookie as a base. Giolito, Alonso, and Lemaheiu make up a solid last three,
with Kelenic and Brohm as potential young options. Draftboard lacks a first,
but has four seconds and nothing in last four rounds.
2 (t). Grit Beer and Balls (Shomphe)
Keepers: 2nd
Draftboard: 9th
Bellinger, Harper, DeGrom, and Cole are
all highenders and Abreu and Adalbero aren’t too far behind. Not a lot extra
here outside of Corbin, unless you want to assume risk of injury (Sale, E-Rod)
or youth (Luzardo, May). With no first or second, the draftboard is lacking at
the top but all in all spread out so it’s close to the baseline otherwise.
2 (t). Tomahawk Chops (Chad/Hunt)
Keepers: 3rd
Draftboard: 8th
Acuna is a top tier and Bichette is on
the verge. Sano and Albies are very solid, while Darvish/Gallen makes up one of
the best 1-2s in the league. Lots of interesting extras like BLowe, Grusham, Winker,
and Burnes too. Draftboard is OK, with no 1st and a couple other
holes, but nothing that can’t be overcome.
4 (t). Ring of Fire (Dagan)
Keepers: 6th
Draftboard: 6th
Story is the headliner, followed by a
bunch of solid second tier guys like Suarez, Ozuna, Conforto, Berrios,
Realmuto. Goldy, Bryant, Yaz, DomSmith, Maeda all have varying levels of
potential as a keeper. Predictably, Dagan’s draftboard reflects his trading
style: boring and solid with one gap and a near baseline score.
4 (t). One Nut Wonders (Jason)
Keepers: 10th
Draftboard: 2nd
Lots of solidness, but nothing
spectacular with this keeper group. Springer, Rendon, JDMart, and Xander are
about as consistent as they come, with Snell and Yordan much less so. There isn’t
a lot extra here unless Gibby wants Buxton back and we keep pretending Correa
is something he’s not. Soler and Semien are OK options. The draftboard is
gorgeous though with three first rounders and three thirds.
6 (t). Ex-Presidents (Jeff)
Keepers: 4th
Draftboard: 10th
The keeper score centers around the
presence of Lindor and three upper echelon young starters (Bieber, Woodruff,
Flaherty). We don’t really know what we’ll get from Hiura and Devers on an
annual basis, but the long-term value is strong. Paddock and Contreras aren’t
great options as extras, but could be a sixth. Draftboard is still strong with
first and second intact and just a couple holes.
6 (t). Donkey Punchers (Jed)
Keepers: 11th
Draftboard: 3rd
Lacking big piece outside of Bauer. Nola
is great and Olson, TAnderson, Blackmon are solid if unspectacular. Meadows would
be a wildcard. There’s potential for Carrasco, Gray, and Villar to perform like
keepers but they’re outside the top 84 right now. Pretty draftboard with two
firsts and a cluster of 9 picks in rounds 5-7.
6 (t). Cowhide Joyride (Dave)
Keepers: 13th
Draftboard: 1st
With great keepers like Machado and
Seager, and solid options in Voit, Lamet and Giancarlo the score would be a lot
better if Lux wasn’t the only option as a sixth. Just hasn’t shown anything to
project him as good value in 2021, which is what this analysis is focused on. Dave
and Jason have similar boards, but Dave is much more concentrated in the
upper-middle rounds. With three firsts, it’s a beaut.
9 (t). Anal Hershiser (Justin)
Keepers: 5th
Draftboard: 10th
The youth of Justin’s keepers dampens
the 2021 outlook somewhat, but with Tucker, Klewis, Vlad, Eloy, and Buehler – surrounding
Arenado – this is one of the top two teams long-term. There’s also Wander,
Thor, Gallo, Pham, and Adell, so could easily see Justin jump up the board with
some trades. He could easily fill the holes in the first, fifth, sixth and
seventh and have a top 5 draftboard.
9 (t). The Angry Pirates (Kyle)
Keepers: 8th
Draftboard: 7th
JoRam is a monster and Yelich usually
is, so that’s a strong base. But there’s
a bit of a gap after that. Castillo is very solid, but Altuve, Glasnow, Fried,
Muncy, Castellanos, Mancini, Swanson, and Bundy all have potential and warts. There’s
some small gaps in the draftboard in the midrounds, but overall a near baseline
board.
11. Knuckle Sandwich (Jones)
Keepers: 13th
Draftboard: 5th
Chris’ keepers would be better if
Chapman and Gleyber didn’t have such challenging 2020s, as Merrifield is a top
tier producer and Sixto looks like a potential ace. The final two keeper spots
are a little up in the air with Kepler and Franimal intriguing options and IAnderson
and Urias talented yet unproven. Lynn is
the less glamourous but solid option and GSanchez take a leap of faith to
consider. Like Dave, some solidifying of the final spots would improve that
keeper score quick, but the long-term outlook is better. The draftboard has a
baseline score with only a couple gaps before a nice cluster before the last four
rounds.
12. Sexual Napalm (Gibby)
Keepers: 7th
Draftboard: 12th
Gibby already went to work boosting his
keepers and now has Scherzer and Freeman joining Trout in one of the best cores
in the league. If Moncada and Baez had 2020s that replicated their 2019s, this
would be a much higher score. It would also be higher if Robles and Soroka
weren’t the only real options as a 6th. The draftboard is fine with a hole in the
second and a couple in the mid rounds.
13. Moose is Loose (Brian)
Keepers: 9th
Draftboard: 13th
Marte is still a stud muffin with five
category potential and Bregman should be expected to rebound. It’s hard to give star grades to Judge and
Strasburg due to injury and Cruz due to age. Biggio looks like a budding star
with five-category potential, but could also fall short of being great in any
category. Teoscar, Donaldson, and Plesac have potential, but require a lot of
faith. With health, this is a top keeper group.
The draftboard has a first but is hindered by a huge gap in rounds 2-5.
14. Brokeback Mountain (Watson)
Keepers: 12th
Draftboard: 14th
There’s the headliner in Turner
surrounded by solidness in Rizzo, Hoskins and Kershaw, mixed with the
imbalanced season of LRobert. The only thing holding this group back is the
sixth because it’s really hard to have faith in Ketel and Schwarber and WSmith
aren’t going to excite anyone. The low draftboard score reflects the lack of a
first, fifth and sixth, and could actually be improved quickly with some
trades. But ranking doesn’t reflect that this is overall solid group of keepers
and draft board that just needs some minor tinkering and/or faith.
Thursday, December 3, 2020
2021 Offseason Guide
Offseason Guide:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mMpqgNtNIlrVNrhF8kswjWxGqHyPFHB2BA8uJBQPX20/edit?usp=sharing
You'll see I've marked sheets that you can adjust and those you can't. The ROSTER sheet is a little different, with color coding for who is your current keepers and who is on the trade block. There's also a place for you to comment on what you're looking for and adjust your contact info. Don't just highlight everyone and say they're on the trade block - please be realistic.
Remember four of your 2021 keepers need to be players that were kept last year. They have a (K) next to their names on the ROSTER page and there's a list of all on the KEEPER page.
The draft order/board is maintained from the start of 2020, based on the 2019 season results and the 2020 offseason. With the 2021 offseason open, all of these picks are open for trading.
Not sure we have any critical things to vote on this year, but let me know if you think otherwise. We will be reverting back to QS from W as planned. Everything is on the table, though some potential changes would have to wait until 2022 to be implemented.
I have not heard of any departures but let me know if you plan to or are considering it. Gibby is planning to leave after this season, but I'm hoping we can convince him otherwise.
The MLB still has a lot of things to work out, including whether the DH will be universal. I'd like to think the season will start on time with similar parameters as last season and perhaps no spring training games, but who knows. Lots can happen between now and then so lets forge ahead as normal.
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