Sunday, June 28, 2015

Midyear Rankings



Top 20 Overall
Rank
Name
Team
1
Paul Goldschmidt Ari  - 1B
Ring of Fire
2
Bryce Harper Was  - OF
I Ate The Munchkins
3
Max Scherzer Was  - P
Keepin it REAL...
4
Giancarlo Stanton Mia  - OF
The Angry Pirates
5
Todd Frazier Cin  - 1B,3B
The Angry Pirates
6
Chris Archer TB  - P
One Nut Wonders
7
Mike Trout LAA  - OF
Mike Ehrman-Trout
8
Miguel Cabrera Det  - 1B,3B
I Ate The Munchkins
9
Josh Donaldson Tor  - 3B
Anal Hershiser
10
Sonny Gray Oak  - P
Donkey Punchers
11
Manny Machado Bal  - 3B
Sexual Napalm
12
Brett Gardner NYY  - OF
Urban Achievers
13
Anthony Rizzo ChC  - 1B
Montezuma's Revenge
14
Jason Kipnis Cle  - 2B
Ring of Fire
15
Nolan Arenado Col  - 3B
One Nut Wonders
16
Zack Greinke LAD  - P
Moose is Loose!
17
Gerrit Cole Pit  - P
Mike Ehrman-Trout
18
Albert Pujols LAA  - 1B
Urban Achievers
19
Justin Upton SD  - OF
One Nut Wonders
20
Dee Gordon Mia  - 2B
Anal Hershiser

Top 20 Draft Picks
Rank
Name
Team
Drafted
Y! Rnk
1
Mark Teixeira NYY  - 1B
The Angry Pirates
222
47
2
Álex Rodríguez NYY  - 3B
Cowhide Joyride
202
31
3
Dan Haren Mia  - P
The Angry Pirates
227
92
4
Billy Burns Oak  - OF
Prestige Worldwide
242
114
5
Jason Hammel ChC  - P
One Nut Wonders
143
35
6
Jesse Chavez Oak  - P
The Angry Pirates
237
133
7
Jhonny Peralta StL  - SS
Ring of Fire
168
67
8
A.J. Burnett Pit  - P
The Angry Pirates
159
68
9
Torii Hunter Min  - OF
Sexual Napalm
231
149
10
Russell Martin Tor  - C
Montezuma's Revenge
151
71
11
Lorenzo Cain KC  - OF
Urban Achievers
118
44
12
Shelby Miller Atl  - P
Sexual Napalm
99
37
13
Steven Souza TB  - OF
I Ate The Munchkins
150
95
14
Dallas Keuchel Hou  - P
Donkey Punchers
74
22
15
Dexter Fowler ChC  - OF
Cowhide Joyride
167
118
16
Carlos Martínez StL  - P
Anal Hershiser
141
93
17
A.J. Pollock Ari  - OF
I Ate The Munchkins
59
21
18
Brett Gardner NYY  - OF
Urban Achievers
48
12
19
Wei-Yin Chen Bal  - P
I Ate The Munchkins
178
147
20
Edinson Vólquez KC  - P
Moose is Loose!
190
160
*Munchkins Aoki and Prestige Burns picks not included because they were dropped

Top 20 RP picks
Rank
Name
Y! Rank
Drafted
Drafted By
1
Jeurys Familia NYM  - P
53
249
Moose is Loose!
2
Luke Gregerson Hou  - P
122
209
One Nut Wonders
3
Santiago Casilla SF  - P
82
165
I Ate The Munchkins
4
Francisco Rodríguez Mil  - P
88
171
The Angry Pirates
5
Dellin Betances NYY  - P
50
129
Ring of Fire
6
Pat Neshek Hou  - P
151
228
Moose is Loose!
7
Trevor Rosenthal StL  - P
43
117
Prestige Worldwide
8
Joakim Soria Det  - P
115
176
Keepin it REAL...
9
Huston Street LAA  - P
52
106
Mike Ehrman-Trout
10
Andrew Miller NYY  - P
59
110
Donkey Punchers
11
Brad Boxberger TB  - P
86
137
Moose is Loose!
12
Wade Davis KC  - P
57
103
Donkey Punchers
13
Héctor Rondón ChC  - P
130
175
I Ate The Munchkins
14
Koji Uehara Bos  - P
148
182
Sexual Napalm
15
Zach Britton Bal  - P
104
136
Prestige Worldwide
16
Drew Storen Was  - P
81
105
Anal Hershiser
17
Kenley Jansen LAD  - P
105
128
One Nut Wonders
18
David Robertson CWS  - P
55
71
Sexual Napalm
19
Mark Melancon Pit  - P
76
82
The Angry Pirates
20
Joaquín Benoit SD  - P
132
126
Keepin it REAL...




Top 20 Keepers
Rank
Name
Kept By
1
Paul Goldschmidt Ari  - 1B
Ring of Fire
2
Bryce Harper Was  - OF
Urban Achievers
3
Max Scherzer Was  - P
Keepin it REAL...
4
Giancarlo Stanton Mia  - OF
The Angry Pirates
5
Todd Frazier Cin  - 1B,3B
The Angry Pirates
6
Mike Trout LAA  - OF
Mike Ehrman-Trout
7
Miguel Cabrera Det  - 1B,3B
I Ate The Munchkins
8
Josh Donaldson Tor  - 3B
Anal Hershiser
9
Manny Machado Bal  - 3B
The Angry Pirates
10
Anthony Rizzo ChC  - 1B
Montezuma's Revenge
11
Jason Kipnis Cle  - 2B
Ring of Fire
12
Nolan Arenado Col  - 3B
One Nut Wonders
13
Zack Greinke LAD  - P
Moose is Loose!
14
Gerrit Cole Pit  - P
Mike Ehrman-Trout
15
Albert Pujols LAA  - 1B
Urban Achievers
16
Justin Upton SD  - OF
One Nut Wonders
17
Chris Sale CWS  - P
Keepin it REAL...
18
Starling Marte Pit  - OF
Montezuma's Revenge
19
Prince Fielder Tex  - 1B
Donkey Punchers
20
Nelson Cruz Sea  - OF
Anal Hershiser

Top 20 Free Agents
Rank
Name
Team
1
Stephen Vogt Oak  - C,1B,OF
One Nut Wonders
2
Will Harris Hou  - P
Sexual Napalm
3
DJ LeMahieu Col  - 2B
One Nut Wonders
4
Kevin Pillar Tor  - OF
Urban Achievers
5
Josh Reddick Oak  - OF
Prestige Worldwide
6
Mike Moustakas KC  - 3B
One Nut Wonders
7
Cameron Maybin Atl  - OF
Cowhide Joyride
8
Darren O'Day Bal  - P
Donkey Punchers
9
Kendrys Morales KC  - 1B
Cowhide Joyride
10
Jason Grilli Atl  - P
Sexual Napalm
11
Brandon Crawford SF  - SS
Prestige Worldwide
12
A.J. Ramos Mia  - P
Montezuma's Revenge
13
Jimmy Paredes Bal  - 2B,3B
Prestige Worldwide
14
Chris Young KC  - P
Anal Hershiser
15
Jaime García StL  - P
One Nut Wonders
16
Justin Turner LAD  - 1B,2B,3B,SS
Anal Hershiser
17
Logan Forsythe TB  - 1B,2B
Mike Ehrman-Trout
18
Héctor Santiago LAA  - P
I Ate The Munchkins
19
Joe Panik SF  - 2B
Moose is Loose!
20
Chris Colabello Tor  - 1B,OF
Moose is Loose!

Top Keeper Classes
Rank
Keepers
Cumulative
Rank
1
Anal Hershiser
240
2
Donkey Punchers
456
3
The Angry Pi...
646
4
One Nut Wonders
1103
5
Ring of Fire
1339
6
Mike Ehrman-...
1343
7
Montezuma's ...
1549
8
I Ate The Mu...
1745
9
Moose is Loose!
1884
10
Prestige Wor...
1976
11
Cowhide Joyride
2121
12
Keepin it RE...
2292
13
Sexual Napalm
3022
14
Urban Achievers
3408

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Monday, June 15, 2015

Week 10 Real Rankings


NOTES
  • The Angry Pirates were furious this week – after years of being overlooked and stuck in a run of mediocre seasons, Kyle has been quietly crushing it this year. Except this week was not so quiet. His 2.0 is the best Real Ranking since I started doing these in 2013. That’s 728 rankings among 14 teams over the course of 52 weeks. And it wasn’t really close. The previous best was a 2.2 by Gibby in Week 9 of 2013, who amazingly came in first in every category except saves, where he finished 14th (he punted that year). Kyle’s worst category was SBs, where he (and four other teams) came in fourth. This wasn’t the best week ever, but it was certainly the best week relative to the rest of us ever.
  • The biggest difference between the RR and Actual Rankings are the outperformance of the Munchkins (6th RR, 3rd Actual) and underperformance of Cowhide (9th RR, 14th Actual
  • Over the last four weeks, the top teams are: One Nut (5.3 RR), Angry (5.7), and Montezumas (6.5). Bottom is Cowhide (8.7), Keepin (8.0), and Prestige (7.8).
  • Since we have a 21 week season, there isn’t an official half way mark, but we’re essentially half done at this point. Time for deep contemplation and consideration for the best course of action going forward.
1.       Angry – Stable pitching staff is key to success going forward; offense is capable of crushing all. Roster has been inconsistent, but well managed.
2.       Montezumas – Led the way for the first six weeks and has trailed a bit the past four. Overall roster still dominant; perhaps another good SP needed.
3.       Munchkins – Playing over their heads according to RR and highly inconsistent, but loaded offensively. Couple SPs in trade could mean championship.
4.       Donkey – Underappreciated in the actual rankings; would be in first of RR if not for the 10.7 in week 7. Consistently excellent and well balanced.
5.       Anal – Top five offensive team, but pitching has been a problem. 13 steals in week 10, second place team had 4 - there is a such thing as too much of a good thing.
6.       One Nut – Heavily imbalanced again, only the opposite of last year (1st pitch, 9th hit). But beware - the quiet, one-nutted monster is lurking.
7.       Prestige – Enjoying a happy return to relevance; some issues, but on both ends but very balanced with 8th best pitching and hitting.
8.       Dagan – Like our other 3-time champion, heavily imbalanced (1st hitting, 12th pitching). Lucky for Dagan, pitching is easier (and cheaper) to fix.
9.       MET – Pitching is crushing it, but hitting has struggled and upside of lineup appears limited and inconsistent. However, could definitely win with that staff.
10.   Moose – Tough year with injuries and underperformance, but head above water thanks to pitching. Could make push for playoffs with the luck he is due.
11.   Keepin – Keepin it quiet really; Pierce’s failure to address shortcomings (7 moves) may be his undoing if the current roster doesn’t start to recover.
12.   Urban – Offense is making due without Bryce, but Felix’s hiccups haven’t helped. Jose Fernandez’s return could be big boost for 13th ranked pitching staff.
13.   S. Napalm – May have sold too cheap initially but making up for it thanks to active ownership; enough talent on O but SPs don’t give him a shot.
14.   Cowhide – While RR says stay the course, 16.5 games out of a playoff spot and 34 games out of first say time is running out. Staff still playoff caliber.

Monday, June 8, 2015

Week 9 Real Rankings


It was a week of relative domination on both sides of the scoreboard as Jason crushed all with an incredible pitching line and sub-2.0 RR for that side, and my team, which got back into the swing of things (pun intended) and had an excellent offensive week. Dan was almost as good on offense, finishing second in four categories.

Meanwhile, it was a forgettable week for Lars, who did goo in saves aaaand that's about it. Still, he's in position to make the playoffs and is sitting in 8th in the Real Rankings.

The battle for first was close for most of the week until Sunday, when Shomphe's pitching brought his rates down and brought the score to 8-2, dropping the Munchkins to third.

Changing things up and giving some kudos for some keen picking. While there are some late round gems, drafting well is drafting well regardless where you got them. Here are some of the best picks from the draft and where they rank overall this season in the top 60 (RPs not included.

1. Chris Archer, One Nut (4th) - Round 9
2. Sonny Gray, Donkey (8th) - Round 7
3. Dallas Keuchel, Donkey (11th) - Round 12
4. AJ Pollock, Munchkins (12th) - Round 11
5. Jacob deGrom, Anal (21st) - Round 8
5. Brett Gardner, Urban (26th) - Round 10
6. Jason Hammel, One Nut (28th) - Roun 17
7. Mark Tiexera, Angry (36th) - Round 22
8. Joc Pederson, Montezumas (39th) - Round 8
9. Johnny Peralta, Ring (44th) - Round 18
10. Matt Carpenter, Montezumas (45th) - Round 10
11. Kolten Wong, Munchkins (58th) - Round 8
12. Lorenzo Cain, Munchkins (59th) - Round 15
13. Jake Odorizzi, Ring (60th) - Round


Thursday, June 4, 2015

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Week 7 Real Rankings

So big whoopsy with the Real Rankings. Apparently they haven’t been so real, or at least accurate. Turns out my spreadsheets weren’t including SV+HLD all along. This was likely due to the conversion from SV to SV+HLD, which I thought I had covered for, but apparently not. So, there are some adjustments, albeit minor. The orange column shows what you were ranked without the category and the blue column next to it is the actual rank. The real change is Jason moves up a couple spots and Dave moves down a few. I apologize for the rookie error.
NOTES:
  • We have hit the end of the first trimester! One-third of the season is gone and, as you’ll see by the transaction log, there is more than enough sample size to reach conclusions on your players. I imagine trading will pick up even more in the coming weeks.
  • Just a sidenote since my last notes installment, Ryu went down too. That leaves, well, not many left of the SPs supposedly expected to join their respective rotations early in the season. Now, the wait is on for last year’s TJS survivors – Moore, Corbin, Perez, Nova, Fernandez, to name a few.
  • From the Real Rankings and Actual Standings, one can conclude that there’s currently one dominant team (Me). There’s another tier just below that is led by Shannon, Kyle, and Lars (a welcome return back to relevancy). Shomphe and Jason are close by, except their on the opposite ends of the luck spectrum as Jason has been decidedly unlucky, ranking outside the last playoff spot currently, while Chris is sitting pretty in second place.
  • Even though he was hurt by my calculation error, Dave should not be in the basement in the Actual Standings this year as he’s 9th in the Real Rankings and just a great week away from being in the top 5. We have two seasons of data that show these things ultimately even out as the season moves along, so they should not be ignored.
  • One thing Dave has going for him is consistency. The VAR column (gray) shows the volatility of the Real Rankings throughout the year. And as you can see by looking at the week to week RR scores, Dave is clearly in the mix each week and has a league leading VAR of 0.6.
  • On the other side of the volatility spectrum, Gibby has had a bit of a schizophrenic start, ranging from 4.8 last week to 11.6 two weeks prior
  • Week 7 saw a reversal of some recent trends, with both Shannon and myself losing matches to lower-ranking teams. For Shannon, it was simply a rare bad week, while I got a bit unlucky, losing 4-5-1 but ranking in the top four in the Real Ranks. Still, the week showed some flaws in my team that weren’t there the first few weeks, so we’ll see if it becomes a pattern.
  • Updated top 25 below. Unlike the beginning of the season, you’re starting to see the cream rise to the top and stay there with these ranks. That said, there are a few noteworthy ascensions. Harper has become the beast everyone dreamed he’d be years before he was even drafted, Gordon has proved he is a legit top of the line speedster, Shelby is achieving the promise he showed as a young prospect, likewise Archer has emerged as the ace K artist the Rays envisioned when they dealt Garza to the Cubs years ago, Keuchel has proven his GB ways can be most effective, Cole’s numbers have ascended to match his name and pedigree, Gray’s sophomore season has solidified his place among the aces, and Starling has grown into a balanced stud with 30/30 potential.
TOP 25
1.       OF Bryce Harper, Munchkins
2.       1B Paul Goldshmidt, Ring
3.       OF Nelson Cruz, Anal
4.       OF Justin Upton, One Nut
5.       SP Max Scherzer, Keepin
6.       3B Josh Donaldson, Anal
7.       SP Felix Hernandez, Urban
8.       OF Mike Trout, MET
9.       SP Zach Grienke, Moose
10.   2B Dee Gordon, Anal
11.   1B Prince Fielder, Donkey
12.   1B Adrian Gonzalez, Donkey
13.   SP Shelby Miller, Montezumas
14.   1B Anthony Rizzo, Montezumas
15.   SP Chris Archer, One Nut
16.   2B Jason Kipnis, Ring
17.   1B Miguel Cabrera, Munchkins
18.   OF Ryan Braun, One Nut
19.   SP Dallas Keuchel, Donkey
20.   SP Gerrit Cole, MET
21.   3B Todd Frazier, Angry
22.   SP Sonny Gray, Donkey
23.   2B Jose Altuve, Cowhide
24.   OF Starline Marte, Montezumas
25.   OF Giancarlo Stanton, Angry