7TH ROUND
BEST: SS Tim Anderson CHW (S. Napalm) - Tough go of it last season, but he's still got elite skills and the ability to contribute to four categories and be ok in OBP. One of my goals this year with SBs was to get players who had high SB conversion rates, assuming they were the best bets to steal more. Anderson was 13 for 13 last year.
RUNNERUP: SP Hunter Greene CIN (Freedom) - I'm just guessing this is the last time we all had an opportunity to draft Greene, barring injury. Elite and ready to go 160+ IP. Will blow up, but this talent doesn't show up often.
WORST: SP Clayton Kershaw LAD (Ex-Presidents) - This seems a little harsh, but the first round didn't have any real whiffs. He's actually a good fit for Jeff's roster post-draft, I just can't get behind Kershaw this high. He last went over 125 IP in 2019.
RUNNERUP: SS Jeremy Pena HOU (Donkey) - Again, no big problem with this, but just a few other guys I'd like here. Could be 90/25/70/20 but that .280 OBP is brutal.
X-FACTOR: SS Anthony Volpe NYY (Ex-Presidents) - Probably would've been kept if we knew what we knew at the time of the draft. Still risk, but this probably would've been my 1.1. I'm a whore for upside and five-category potential.
8TH ROUND
BEST: OF Bryce Harper PHI (Montezuma's) - I'll give myself props because I'm still a little surprised he wasn't kept. Yes he could miss half the season, but this is H2H and it's Bryce Harper. And he'll be Bryce Harper in the second half. And he'll be Bryce Harper in the playoffs. And he'll be Bryce Harper next year.
RUNNERUP: 2B/3B Max Muncy LAD (Angry) - Third base is a shitshow and Muncy is a top 10 option in an OBP league. It may not be sexy, but he could be huge producer for Kyle's squad. There's no reason he can't get to 90/35/90/5/.360.
WORSTEST*: RP Emmanuel Clase CLE (Grit BB) - Per tradition, the first RP always gets the worst pick award. This one is exceptionally bad, but gets an asterisk because Chris spaced the start time of the draft and got autodrafted. Clase is great but he still only had 3 more S+H (and 17 less Ks) than AJ Minter, who went 9 rounds later.
WORST: OF Giancarlo Stanton NYY (Brokeback) - For such a big name, he actually only contributes to two categories (HR, RBI). No speed, sub-.300 OBP last year, and has only scored 137 runs the last four years combined.
RUNNERUP: SS Carlos Correa MIN (Montezuma's) - I hated everything about this pick and how it transpired, seeing Tim Anderson, Anthony Volpe, and Hunter Greene disappear from my queue. He had 590 plate appearances on a pretty good team last year and could only muster 70/22/64/0/.366. Then there's the whole failed physical thing in the offseason. Ugh. Shoot me.
X-FACTOR: SP Tyler Glasnow TB (One Nut) - The per-game K upside is obviously compelling, but we're still talking about a 28yo who only has one season above 100 IP in his career (111 in 2018).
9TH ROUND
BEST: 1B Nathanel Lowe TEX (Knuckle) - First base gets pretty shallow pretty quick and Lowe was a revelation last year. The Rangers have an emerging lineup and he's right in the center of it all -- he could be 90/30/90/5/.350 without blinking an eye.
RUNNERUP: SP Lucas Giolito CHW (Moose) - There's still elite talent here and at 28, he's a year YOUNGER than Tyler Glasnow, with five years of putting up a full starter's workloads, achieving 200+ Ks twice.
WORST: 2B Javier Baez DET (Archibald) - Never linked him much in OBP leagues, but there was obviously value. After last year's horrendous 64/17/67/9/.278 in 590 abs, he could've been had a few rounds later.
RUNNERUP: SP Tony Gonsolin LAD (Ex-Presidents) - I never like investing much in SPs that are injured before the season starts. Gonsolin's upside is low enough that it doesn't support the risk here, even with a great draftboard.
X-FACTOR: SP Jesus Luzardo MIA (Montezuma's) - Elite stuff, but injuries have stopped him from hitting the next level. He's healthy and 25yo with even greater velocity this spring. Could be a big year coming... or could not be.
10TH ROUND
BEST: 1B Tristan Casas BOS (Donkey) - With first base becoming more shallow, this was a great spot for a hitter that could be a four-category contributor out the gate as he's shown elite plate discipline and has 35 HR upside. Great pick for 2023 and beyond here.
RUNNERUP: SP Reid Detmers LAA (Ex-Presidents) - Like the Casas pick, this one is great for 2023 and beyond. If Detmers continues with the growth he showed after he was sent down last season, this may be a keeper for the next 7 years.
WORST: OF Jake McCarthy ARI (Ring) - Call me a prospect snob, but I need some pedigree to trust this type of condensed production from a player who pops up out of nowhere. Could prove me wrong and SBs may be excellent, but I could see this flopping easily. (Giving Shomphe a pass for the Romano pick since he was till unaware the draft was happening at this point - he's been punished enough.)
RUNNERUP: 3B Kebryan Hayes PIT (Archibald) - He's still just 26, but through 1,000 big league at bats his 162-game average is an Elvis Andrusy 75/11/57/18/.321 line.
X-FACTOR: OF Taylor Ward LAA (Knuckle) - I still don't completely trust the out-of-nowhereness of Ward, but the underlying skills support the production last year when he wasn't injured. Hitting leadoff in front of Ohtani and Trout, he could be 100/25/70/10/.360.
11TH ROUND
BEST: SP Charlie Morton ATL (Ex-Presidents) - Morton has an ageless arm, and while it would be silly to keep expecting the same production every year, even something lesser than 4.30/1.20 and 200Ks would be a steal here. There's a lot of risky young pitchers going in this area, so loved this.
RUNNERUP: TIE 1B CJ Cron COL (Brokeback) and OF Anthony Santander (Cowhide) - Pretty similar production last year for unappreciated youngsters, with both likely to be around 80/30/90/0/.320. This was a surprising drop given the other players taken here.
WORST: SP Triston McKenzie CLE (One Nut) - I'm fine with taking a shot at an injury risk and Jason certainly had a great draftboard, this was way too high given the injury and history. I don't think he would've gone for another five rounds.
RUNNERUP: OF JD Martinez LAD (Brokeback) - Last year's production was so mediocre and LA is the place that mediocrity goes to become an effective platoon that is essentially useless for fantasy.
X-FACTOR: SS Ezequiel Tovar COL (Freedom) - Lots of candidates in this round with the likes of Altuve, HBrown, Grayson, ECabrera, Melendez, and Kelenic, but this is the biggest boom or bust. By the end of May he'll either be a star in the making or in AAA.
12TH ROUND
BEST: OF Lars Nootbaar STL (Donkey) - He's the 2023 hyped out-of-nowhere industry darling, so it was a little surprising to see him go this late. In the sporadic playing time to this point in his career, the 25yo paces at around 100/30/85/10/.340 in 600 abs. It's imperfect because a lot of that was pinch hitting and platooning, but the underlying skills and exit velocities point to a potential star. Good price here.
RUNNERUP: 3B Josh Jung TEX (Freedom) - There's an approach issue here and I expect some struggles, but I could totally see him becoming a 80/25/80/10/.320 guy this season and improving on that over time. Could be a perennial keeper.
WORST: OF Cody Bellinger CHC (Brokeback) - I can get behind a wing and a prayer later in the draft, but he had a .210 average last year and .165 the year before. And it really isn't a small sample size things. He's just been lost and 2019 was a long long time ago. No thanks.
RUNNERUP: SP Tyler Mahle MIN (Brokeback) - In Watson's defense, he owned like half the picks in this round. And no real problem here. His velocity was just down in the spring and his 43.5% QS% last year with middling rates just makes him my least favorite player drafted in the round... other than Bellinger, who is fucking terrible.
X-FACTOR: OF Masataka Yoshida BOS (Montezuma's) - It's always hard to know what to expect from Japanese imports. If he really doesn't have any speed and the power is just mediocre, he could be dropped easily. But he's super patient and batting cleanup, so his transition could be seamless.
13TH ROUND
BEST: 3B Alex Bohm PHI (Archibald) - Bohm has been pretty meh thus far in his career, but he's just 26 and has made steady improvements that indicate he could be on the verge of a breakout. The floor is pretty low too and 3B is a verifiable dumpsterfire this year.
RUNNERUP: SP Nate Eovaldi TEX (Ex-Presidents) - Nothing sexy about this pick, but that's why I like it. This is easy SP3-4 production in a park that favors pitchers with velocity and health that is right where it should be. I expect a great year.
WORST: RP Josh Hader SD (S. Napalm) - The first deliberate RP selection gets the special honor. Again, Hader had 36 S+H and 81 Ks last year, which is fine. But so is the 35 S+H and 85 Ks by Taylor Rogers, who Kyle picked up off waivers.
RUNNERUP: 1B Darick Hall PHI (Donkey) - Power is cool and stuff, but there was lots of it at this point in the draft. And it comes with a lot better than a 4% BB%.
XFACTOR: OF Nick Castellanos PHI (One Nut) - I've long panned past picks - or keeps - of this guy in the past, but I actually like it here. His walk rates suck, but there's no reason he can't get to 80/25/80/5/.330 in that ballpark and lineup. But he's also 31 and chasing sluggers tend to not age well, so could be just experiencing natural painful decline.
14TH ROUND
BEST: 1B Ryan Mountcastle BAL (Cowhide) - It's easy to not appreciate three-category power production at first, but this is easy power with opportunity for more at 26yo and in an improving lineup. His 162-game average is 76/30/99/4/.315 and small improvements gets him to the top of the second tier of 1B behind Vla/Goldy/Freeman/Alonso/Olsen.
RUNNERUP: OF Garrett Mitchell MIL (Freedom) - He's got a great approach and the opportunity for a full time job, so I like the selection at this point of a good draftboard. There's 80/25/80/40/.350 upside here, but MIL has lots of good options if he struggles.
WORST: SP Lance McCullers HOU (One Nut) - The only thing I hate more than RPs this early are injury-prone starters who are starting the season injured and surrounded by decent options breathing down his neck.
RUNNERUP: OF Jake Fraley CIN (Angry) - I kind of like him as a flyer, but he's never going to not platoon. I really don't like settling for that at this point.
XFACTOR: 2B Brandon Drury LAA (Angry) - This was a great pick, but could definitely go sideways. He was definitely a nice surprise last year, but doesn't walk or run and was definitely aided by Great American Bomb Park as his production ceased to a halt once traded to San Diego.
15TH ROUND
BEST: SS Nico Hoerner CHC (Donkey) - The question was always power and he found some last year. When combined with a great approach and batting leadoff, that means 100/15/60/30/.340 is not a stretch at all and -- at 26 and with a good amount of pedigree -- could be significantly better.
RUNNERUP: SP Graham Ashcraft CIN (Freedom) - Ashcraft was very productive in the minors and inconsistent in the majors last year. But the underlying stuff was always good, even without an effective third pitch. Now his retooled slider is making analysts moist and causing fits. Still some blowup risk, but good shot to take here.
WORST: SS Vaughn Grissom ATL (One Nut) - I agree he should be with the big league club to see what he can do, but this isn't the type of talent that you select this high and stash in the one NA spot you have. Solid hit tool and all around skills but nothing loud and not likely to be productive out the gate when called up.
RUNNERUP: RP Alexis Diaz CIN (Freedom) - Bad team and a career 12.7% BB% and lots of other RPs available? Barf.
XFACTOR: 2B Thairo Estrada SF (Archibald) - He came out of nowhere last year, but his underlying data was pretty good. He could easily go back to obscurity, but at 27, he could be just emerging into a 100/20/75/30/.330 multi-position eligible stud.
16TH ROUND
BEST: OF Michael Conforto SF (Brokeback) - I am a little shocked how late he's gone in drafts. SF is desperate for a power bat and Conforto's last healthy season was 90/33/92/7/.363 in 2019. He's 30 and back after a season off, so I'm optimistic he can settle back in and DH when necessary.
RUNNERUP: SP Jon Gray TEX (Ring) - It was nice to see Gray without his Coors warts last season. It's still an imperfect profile, but the stuff is there and the ballpark is good. If he can stay healthy and get to six innings every other start, he can be a solid SP4-5 and the floor isn't so bad.
WORST: SP Yusei Kikuchi TOR (Angry) - Yeah yeah, nice spring. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me seven times...
RUNNERUP: 2B/OF Whit Merrifield TOR (Donkey) - I just think he's done. He did a great job maximizing his skills for a longtime, but it ends at some point and 34yo makes sense for him to settle into a part-time starter. TOR didn't give up a ton for him, so there's no dedication to his mediocrity.
XFACTOR: SP Eduardo Rodriguez DET (Brokeback) - I love this pick because there's reason to be optimistic after he dealt with COVID worse than most and then stepped away last year for personal reasons. He's just 30 and the skills are still good, so this could be a solid fantasy starter. But this could also be the season we just realize he'll always be unreliable.
17TH ROUND
BEST: C Tyler Stephenson CIN (Montezuma's) - One of the best hitting catchers in the league, Stephenson has dealt with sporadic playing time and injuries, but is still just 26. In 571 big league at bats (full season), he's 89/18/90/1/.369. In rebuild mode, CIN is dedicated to making him a centerpiece of the lineup and get him regular at bats outside of catching so this could be the breakout campaign.
RUNNERUP: SP Marcus Stroman CHC (Grit B&B) - There's a lot of promise and forgotten big seasons taken among the SP ranks in this area of the draft, but few offer consistent contributions like Stroman. Not sexy, but solid through and through.
WORST: 2B Michael Massey KC (Ex-Presidents) - We're getting to the end of Jeff's draft so hard to argue with getting your guys, but the chances of him getting above .300 OBP is low and there's enough interesting guys in the KC farm system that consistent playing time is not likely. Could be wrong, but there's a lot more interesting guys out there.
RUNNERUP: RP Scott Barlow KC (Archibald) - Good pitcher, but bad team. Jason Adam had the same number of Ks and S+H and better ERA.
XFACTOR: OF Joey Meneses WAS (Angry) - Lots of good options with Tork and Flaherty also taken here, but I'm so intrigued by Meneses. He was a Portland Sea Dog when he was dropped by the Sox before catching on with the Nats and catching fire last season. He could flop or flourish more than anyone.
18TH ROUND
BEST: SP Mackenzie Gore WAS (Donkey) - Gore was all the rage at the beginning of last season before he became derailed. But we're still talking about what many considered to be can't miss talent and will have every opportunity to excel this year.
RUNNERUP: OF Mitch Haniger SF (Donkey) - Starting a new season injured while coming off an injury-riddled season is never good, but Jed could benefit considerably. We don't see 110/39/100/1/.318 seasons very often, so its surprising so many forgot about Haniger's 2021.
WORST: SP German Marquez COL (One Nut) - "I wish I knew how to quit you."
RUNNERUP: SP Brayan Bello BOS (Ex-Presidents0 - I like Bello long-term, but I see very little chance he becomes a consistent contributor before Jeff drops him. Pure talent is there, but nothing in the underlying numbers last year suggest a breakout is coming.
XFACTOR: OF Esteury Ruiz OAK (Angry) - The epitome of an XFactor. There is no outcome this season that would surprise me. He could steal 50 bases and get on base 33% of the time or he could be back in the minors in the third week of the season.
19TH ROUND
BEST: SP Kenta Maeda MIN (Moose) - TJS is never good, but Maeda's last MLB pitch was 20 months ago (ie, well outside the 15-month recovery window) and he was a stud before that with a career 9.8 K/9 and 3.70/1.13. There's reason to believe that the spring will be a little rough but that he will ultimately settle into SP4 production easily - a steal at this point in the draft.
RUNNERUP: SP Aaron Civale CLE (Brokeback) - There isn't as much upside as Maeda, but the talent is palpable and he seemed to have a little extra last year. Still hasn't gone over 125 IP in a season, but still time for growth at 28yo.
WORST: OF Marcell Ozuna ATL (Moose) - It's easy to remember the good times and forget we haven't seen one since 2020 and that Ozuna hasn't posted an OBP above .288 since then.
RUNNERUP: 3B Yandy Diaz TB (Knuckle) - The only thing worse than false hope is having no hope at all. He's at least got a nice OBP that you can count on being in the .370-.400 range.
XFACTOR: SS Trevor Story BOS (Montezuma's) - Is he out for the season or coming back in a few weeks? If it's the latter, drafting a five-category contribute under the age of 30 is a huge get.
20TH ROUND
BEST: RP Giovanny Gallegos STL (Cowhide) - In a S+H league, talent is king. Gallegos has some of the best underlying numbers and pure talent of any reliever in the game.
RUNNERUP: SP Zack Eflin TB (Grit B&B) - PHI wasn't a great place for him and TB isn't great either from a fantasy perspective, but Eflin does a great job limiting hard contact and is on a team that can maximize his talent - even if they don't let him ever go 6 IP.
WORST: 2B Jon Berti MIA (Grit B&B) - I get it, but I also know MIA is not likely to let him play a ton. Position eligibility is cool, but Berti's top skill is one that may be widely available this season.
RUNNERUP: OF Oscar Gonzalez CLE (Moose) - He had a nice season, but has flop written all over him: little pedigree, no patience, stiff competition, high BABIP.
XFACTOR: OF Ramon Laureano OAK (S. Napalm) - Couple middling seasons make it easy to forget he has a 162-game average of 89/25/73/18/.323 in his career and is 28. If he can get back on track and gets traded to a contender with OF needs like LAD, ATL, NYY, this could be a big season. Or he could actually really suck.
21ST ROUND
BEST: 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF Brendan Donovan STL (Montezuma's) - He's reportedly made some power gains after a breakout season that showed off his hit tool and produce a .384 OBP. If he's leadoff and has a little pop, that could be huge. But the biggest thing is all those numbers and letters before his name. He's a bench spot dream.
RUNNERUP: OF Jesse Winker MIL (Moose) - SEA wasn't a great fit for Winker's skills, but MIL definitely is. A 80/25/80/5/.370 season is well within reach and he could blow past those numbers easily.
WORST: SP Cole Irvin BAL (Moose) - It's like admitting defeat before the season even gets started. This is waiver wire fodder.
RUNNERUP: 3B Josh Donaldson NYY (Cowhide) - I don't really hate any other picks here, but we've seen exactly one season of 500 abs since 2016.
XFACTOR: SS Adalberto Mondesi BOS (Donkey) - There's so much focus on speed and lack of OBP that we often forget there's other category juice here. His 162 game average is 81/17/71/60/.280 and he's 27. I don't expect greatness or health, but I know what can come when he's right.
22ND ROUND
BEST: 3B Yoan Moncada CHW (Archibald) - He's 28 now and it feels like we still haven't seen it all come together, but if it just comes together a little bit, we could easily get 75/20/75/10/.360 at a tough position to fill. But there's potential for more and floor isn't so bad when you consider the health issues he's had.
RUNNERUP: OF Oscar Colas CHW (Montezuma's) - Colas is one of the more interesting rookies this year and uniquely refined for a Cuban transplant with previous experience as a two-way player. There's a lot of upside and the floor is better than you think.
WORST: 3B Patrick Wisdom CHC (S. Napalm) - There's pop here, but not much else and I feel like CHC is looking for an excuse not to use him regularly.
RUNNERUP: TIE SP Johnny Cueto MIA (Grit B&B) and SP Noah Syndergaard LAD (S. Napalm) - Old, slow and boring is no way to live boys... even though that would describe most of our lives.
XFACTOR: SS Elly De La Cruz CIN (Cowhide) - The only thing bigger than his floor is his ceiling.
23TH ROUND
BEST: SP Kyle Bradish BAL (Grit B&B) - Bradish is the token young pitcher. Spotty control, killer stuff, and a bunch of promise. He has a spot and spiked some huge games last year. But at this point in the draft, you take your shots and see hope for the best.
RUNNERUP: RP Rafael Montero HOU (Archibald) - S+H leaders change from year to year. To wit, Montero never had more than 11 before last season. But last year he had more than Edwin Diaz (37 vs. 36) and will have a prominent role in the HOU bullpen this year.
WORST: RP DL Hall BAL (S. Napalm) - There's not real "wrong answers" at this point in the draft, but when selecting an NA in Yahoo you need someone who you think can contribute immediately. Hall is the antithesis. Incredible stuff - like top tier (minor league K/9 is 12.6!) - but the control is historically bad (minor league BB/9 is 5.1). He'll find a role and be a fantasy asset at some point, but it won't be this year.
RUNNERUP: RP Alex Lange DET (S. Napalm) - Not a bad pitcher, but being a closer on a bad team doesn't help in this league.
XFACTOR: SP Brandon Pfaadt ARI (Montezuma's) - One of those minor leaguer SPs with the skills to contribute immediately a la George Kirby. He was in contention for the rotation, but was sent back to the minors, where he struck out 218 batters - the most by a minor league SP since 2001. This is a rotation with Zach Davies and Madison Bumgartner, so there's not a lot holding him back but it could be a while
24TH ROUND
BEST: 3B Brett Baty NYM (Grit B&B) - This is the type of NA you want. Strong hit tool, big time pop, and only Eduardo Escobar standing in his way. He has elite bat speed and got a taste of the majors last year. Keeper potential in the last round.
RUNNERUP: RP Hector Neris HOU (Brokeback) - See Montero, Rafael.
WORST: OF Joc Pederson SF (Ring) - I mean, I get it in a way. But accepting a platoon bat as part of your opening day roster is a little defeatist in mind. The good doctor Dagan is a lot more practical than me, but I would've taken a flyer on someone a little more fun.
RUNNERUP: RP Anthony Bass TOR (Moose) - No biggy, just a lot of other RPs I prefer.
XFACTOR: OF James Outman LAD (S. Napalm) - The Dodgers have a crowded but mostly mediocre outfield filled with guys like David Peralta, Trayce Thompson, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor and a half dozen prospects that could fill the space. You gotta assume LAD will find the right combo and Outman has some big power from the left side.
