Thor’s receives:
OF Joc Pederson LAD
SP Yordano Ventura KC
SP Ricky Nolasco MIN
24th rounder
Montezumas receives:
SP Jose Quintana CHW
RP Kelvin Herrera
18th rounder
The first trade of the season is perhaps the most tricky to evaluate. The key here is the reality of the playing time for Pederson, who I kept, and the growth of Quintana. Let’s stay with Chris’ side and it is very clear he wins from a long-term perspective. Joc has settled into a platoon situation, unfortunately… well, sort of. Roberts says it’s not a platoon, but to this point in the season, Joc had six at bats against lefties. To his credit, Roberts has played Joc since then in situations where the LHP’s secondary pitch isn’t an elite breaking ball. But there’s still a lot of depth in talent in LAD and maximizing a lineup’s potential is a good thing for a coach to do. However, it’s hard for us to fully evaluate a young hitter who isn’t getting opportunities. Joc is still young and has elite on-base skills, enough that he has some .400 seasons in his future. He also, obviously, has a lot of pop and speed. Ventura is a bit of an enigma – big prospect, big debut, big velocity, then struggled in second season, got hurt, played well in minors, came up and helped lead a staff to a World Series. Now he’s back, velocity down a bit, still not letting up a lot of runs but not striking out as many as he walks. The pedigree is there, but clearly it’s a big step back from Quintana. Nolasco is having an OK season but was dumped shortly after.
For me, my staff is young, talented, but volatile. Quintana has always been an object of my desire because he’s so consistent, even if he doesn’t have elite stuff. This year, though, he’s making a case for keeper-level status. Converting three out of four starts to QS is difficult, but he’s also striking out players at keeper levels and is just 27. Herrera is great, but also just an RP. While six rounds doesn’t seem like much, going from the 24th to the 18th is a noteworthy boost. The move away from Joc was created by Mazara’s emergence. Mazara is playing every day and batting high in the order at the age of 20, so that’s not someone you give up for an SP upgrade. With Cutch, Fowler, and Choo, I didn’t have room for Domingo, Joc, and Mazara and Domingo hadn’t built up any trade value, so the decision was made for me – I needed to trade, but I also needed to get someone I really wanted in return.
The bottom line here is if Yordano ends up being even an OK SP4, Chris definitely wins this trade in the long run and maybe even this season. However, it could also be exactly what I need for another championship run.
---------------
Brokeback receives:
1B/OF Brandon Belt SF
22nd rounder
Angry receives:
SP Chase Anderson MIL
13th rounder
No qualms with this move on either team’s part. Belt is not a keeper and is unlikely to emerge as one because he will most certainly lose his OF eligibility, but he’s a very effective player in an OBP league and the OF eligibility is a massive boost for this year. His inability to stay healthy and periodic sitting because of Posey has made it difficult to fully evaluate Belt, but he’s got great on-base skills (.438 through mid-May) even if his power is lackluster for a 1B. He’s also been injured quite a bit, so he hasn’t had a full healthy season. At 28, so he is unlikely to break out in the traditional sense, but 80/20/80/10/.370 would be pretty epic if he can get there (maybe even fringe keeperish, definitely if he can get OF eligibility). He also fit Matt’s team needs nicely. Nine rounds is a fair price for Kyle to expect back, so very nice exchange here.
---------------
Montezumas receives:
SP Garret Richards LAA
20th rounder
24th rounder
Angry receives:
SP Nick Tropeano LAA
11th rounder
18th rounder
Fuck, just fuck.
---------------
Thor’s receives:
SP David Price BOS
SP Ian Kennedy KC
23rd rounder
Angry receives:
OF AJ Pollock ARI
2B Kolten Wong STL
11th rounder
In the most obvious of all deals, this makes perfect sense for both teams and is a relatively fair exchange in value. Pollock will still be keeper worthy provided he heals up fine and 12 rounds (including the 11th rounder – the highest pick you can get right now) is just shy of the highest return you can get for one pick. So Kyle does very well here, especially considering how much SPs are valued during the offseason vs. the regular season, which is vastly different when you consider someone like Jon Lester is essentially untouchable now but could’ve been had for two rounds before the draft.
Shomphe, meanwhile, addresses a shortcoming since Quintana was traded. There is nothing wrong with Price’s underlying stats and it appears he was just a mechanical adjustment away from getting back on track. He’s still a top 5 SP and Kyle was right to demand a keeper in return, while the Pollock injury gave Shomphe an easy opportunity to acquire some help for this season, while freeing up a DL spot. Kennedy also has performed very well and is a very steady contributor, even if he does have the occasional blow up. Nice deal, boys.
---------------
Napalm receives:
SP Tyler Chatwood COL
SP Steven Wright BOS
19th rounder
21st rounder
Angry receivers:
SP Trevor Bauer CLE
SP Jhoulys Chacin LAA
14th rounder
16th rounder
Mama always said either say something nice or don’t say it all, so all I’m going to say here is… this is a stupid trade, Gibby. (Dammit! Sorry mom…) My major beef is that I am never going to trade a considerable amount of picks (10 is considerable) for someone I don’t believe in. I can’t read Gibby’s mind but I can read numbers, and there’s nothing in the profiles of Chatwood or Wright that should provide any conviction that the nice start to the season for these two will continue. Chatwood had his second TJS in 2014, which is enough to make you not want to invest anything more than a waiver wire submission. But then you factor in that he plays in Colorado and his best season produced a measly 5.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. He’s essentially a hold-until-he-sucks-or-plays-at-home kind of guy, not a five-round investment. Likewise for Wright, who is some decent game tape and larger sample size data away from a trip back to Pawtucket. Neither has much pedigree to speak of either. I know 10 rounds isn’t huge, but its two picks you can’t deal later... you know for good pitchers like, say, Trevor Bauer (starter again!, 3.73 xFIP vs. 3.89 ERA!, 10.0%+ improvement on GB%!, 8.6 K/9 life time!) or Jhoulys Chacin (3.25 xFIP!, 4:1 K:BB ratio!).
---------------
Montezumas receives:
SP Lance McCullers HOU
18th rounder
18th rounder
Angry receives:
SP Rubby de la Rosa ARI
13th rounder
16th rounder
For a brief moment, I thought I had a beautifully tiered rotation highlighted by Kluber, Richards, Quintana, and McCullers. That lasted all of three hours before the Richards news came in…. Moving on though. McCullers is a guy with ace stuff but spotty control and a shoulder issue that kept him out the first six weeks of the season. He impressed in his age 21 season with a 3.22/1.19 line that included 129 Ks in 125 ip. However, he also posted a 3.1 BB/9, which isn’t good. As I noted after the trade went through, an awful lot would have to happen for him to reach keeper status (keeping in mind only 20 or so SPs are kept and they did not include Jon Lester this year). I’m just hoping for a bit of the promise he provided last season. He was going to be on an inning limit anyway, so missing the first week of the season isn’t a huge concern. The shoulder soreness is a massive concern though given his youth and velocity (avg 94.5 mph last year). So, there is some risk, but seven rounds is a reasonable number for pitcher with this potential. Another thing to keep in mind is I parted with a pretty nice piece as well, as RDLR has really bounced back after a couple rough starts to begin the season. He may be another asset for Kyle to deal at some point.
---------------
Napalm receives:
SP Julio Urias LAD
24th rounder
One Nut receives:
OF Byron Buxton MIN
15th rounder
Sorry, Gibster. I don’t understand this one either. Just so I don’t sound like I’m contradicting myself, let’s recap what I said about Buxton to start the season:
“Worst: OF Byron Buxton, Napalm – The worst kept secret in the draft was that I have no hope for Buxton this year, outside of Jake Marisnick-type value (read: no value). Nothing I saw last season suggests he’s ready - .209 AVG, .576 OPS (think Billy Hamilton), .116 ISO (think Anthony Gose power), 13.5 SwStr% (think Trumbo-like discipline), 24.1% soft contact (think injured Jacoby). Hell, he only stole 2 bases in 4 tries. The most glaring statistic showing “Next Trout” isn’t even the next Tim Salmon is he hit a total of 28 HRs in 1,227 minor league plate appearances. This pick is based entirely off of hype from scouts who like his tools, but even if you gave me the best tools in the world, I would still be a terrible mechanic. I’m not saying stardom won’t come, but I’m damn sure it’s not coming this year”
Clearly, he was a reach in the 9th round to begin with and – given his bust potential and the likelihood of a return to AAA -- really should have been teamed with a much weaker NA than Trea Turner, who really can’t be dropped outright. Urias was also a bit of a reach given his age (still a teenager) in the 17th round. Keeping in mind that draft results mean very little after the draft, NOTHING SHOULD HAVE CHANGED IN THEIR PERCEIVED VALUE. If Buxton was a better pick two months ago, he still is now. Both have dominated the minors, but neither has produced at the big league level yet, nor do either have a clear parth value in the short-term. The discussion to this point has been Urias *potentially* comes up as an RP and eventually may make his way to the rotation by the end of the season. But this is a very deep rotation, despite the early appearances of Zach Lee and Ross Stroping. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy are both a month away from being ready. Mike Boslinger was great last year and is coming back this week. Alex Wood had a rough start but has rebounded, Scott Kazmir is fine and too expensive to bench, Kenta Maeda had flourished, and Kershaw is just Kershawing all over the faces of opposing batters. Let us also not forget that Brett Anderson is recovering from back surgery. You even got a great prospect in Jose De Leon who is four years older and may also be ahead of Urias in the pecking order.
If he does come up, he will have to be awfully impressive to warrant keeper consideration going into next season considering the certainty of an innings cap and the rotation logjam. I’d even venture to file it under highly unlikely. THE MEXICAN KERSHAW may not complete his first 200-inning season until 2018. To make matters worse, you still can’t even slot him in your NA, so he’s occupying a valuable bench/rotation spot.
Buxton, meanwhile, will be back in a month or two. I’m not saying he figures it out now, but I maintain my belief that stardom is likely to come at some point. If he puts together a great final two months, he could even be a legit keeper given his potential. Yes, he’s stumbled in his first two debuts, but many prospects do not experience immediate success. The skills that made scouts drool openly are still there, so I see no reason why he’d be considered a worse asset than Urias at this point – particularly if you consider the injury potential of pitchers vs. hitters. But for someone who was deemed THE NEXT MIKE TROUT to be tossed aside with nine rounds is baffling. I wouldn’t dream of trading nine rounds for Urias alone, much less include the top prospect in baseball. Sorry Gibster, Jason just Johnny Stocktoned yo ass.
No comments:
Post a Comment