2015 Draft Review

Here it is. Might be my longest yet, so I apologize. The first step was selecting the players, which happened before the season started, so their ranking has not been influenced by early results. I also did not look at the team selecting the player until the later rounds when roster structure decisions may affect how I grade, so there are no biases as I have yet to memorize the rosters. Other than, of course, my own roster, which I obviously like.

Please feel free to comment, dispute, praise, or maim.

Round 7

Best: 2B Dustin Pedroia (Gibby) – Yes the numbers have declined, but wrist injuries are notorious for sapping any power. He’s healthy and young enough (31) that he could very easily play up to keeper level value at the top of a monster lineup. There’s no real numbers from 2014 to back it up, just a history of great performance when healthy. He was my top overall guy and lasted until the last pick of the round. Huge value for Gibby from the get-go.

Runner-up Best: OF Gregory Polanco (Shannon) – I liked a lot of picks in the first round, but I give most credit to people who are safely bold – very high ceiling and pretty high floor too – and this is pretty safely bold. Well, sort of. Considering his draft position, this is actually not that big of a risk for Chris. While the numbers weren’t fantastic on the surface, most 22 year-olds don’t get to the bigs and walk 9.6% of the time with a 18.9 K%. He’ll get playing time, he’s talented, and he’s batting second – that’s safely bold.

Worst: OF Charlie Blackmon (Lars) – I know Yahoo had him ranked high, but that doesn’t mean he should’ve been. The numbers declined as the season expired, so the pretty 82/19/72/28/.335 line needs to be watered down a bit. They like to platoon in COL and Stubbs is as good as Blackmon, so 648 PAs again is unlikely. CarGo will probably get injured, so there’s that I suppose. Not saying he’ll be awful, but not first round quality.

Runner-up Worst: OF Rusney Castillo (Pierce) – Big oopsy would’ve been fine if he made the team, but it was relatively clear at the time of the draft that he was going to start the season on the DL or minors. Honestly, I would’ve disliked Pierce’s intended pick (Aroldis) even more at #1 overall. The fact that he got Aroldis in the second just wraps this up into one big, low value bow. Great NA guy though!

X-Factor: OF Marcell Ozuna (Russ) – Of all the picks taken in the first, this has the biggest variance in potential outcomes. Ozuna was never seen as much of a prospect until recently and he has just kept improving. The power is there but the patience is not (.317 OBP) and that .337 BABIP suggests luck. At 24, this could be the last time he’s available to draft … or the last time anyone will want to draft him.

Round 8

Best: SP Carlos Carrasco (Kyle) – He was the 11th starter drafted but he was the top starter on my board. There are guys who are safer, but the more I looked, the more I saw both safety and high-end potential. DeGrom was my #2 SP overall because both had excellent SwStr (13.0, 11.7, respectively) and K rates (26.5, 25.5). But Carrasco also keeps the ball on the ground (52.8%)… you know, when he’s not striking them out. Big year coming.

Runner-up Best: 1B/3B/OF Ryan Zimmerman (Brian) – Here’s a surprise for you: Ryan Zimmerman is not fragile. Six of the nine full seasons he’s played in the bigs have been 142+ games. For comparison, Adrian Beltre has played 142+ games in seven of the past nine seasons. Zimm is just 30, playing 1B, has OF/3B eligibility and has a 162-game average of 93/25/96/5/.352.  That’s production and versatility I want. He was my #5 overall player.

Worst: RP Aroldis Chapman (Pierce) – I’m rather confident this will be the highest we see a RP drafted ever again, unless for some reason we decide to scrap the whole HLD+SV thing. Chapman is the best reliever we’ve seen, probably ever – I mean 52.5 K%. Nuff said. And you know what? He still was just 25 Ks more valuable than undrafted PIT setup guy Tony Watson last year after you factor in the category change. I thought there would be a bigger shift in valuations from the outset. Quite certain there will be going forward.

Runner-up Worst: C Jonathan Lucroy (Andrew) – I love Lucroy, particularly because I love that MIL will play him at 1B from time to time, which means more ABs than the typical catcher. But in the end, he’s a catcher. As good as 72/13/69/4/.373 was last year, Melky Cabrera did basically the same and went four rounds later. At this point in the draft, I want more production and worry about position-relative value later. Grandal can come close or exceed that line this year, and he went in the 21st.

X-Factor: OF Joc Pederson (Adam) – A reach? Maybe. I kind of thought the hype machine might make him go earlier, but was happy to find my #2 overall player here waiting for me with my first pick. Mattingly could screw this up, but what I like is that Pederson’s walk rate has gone up at each level. He’s just 23 and is more likely to fail than succeed, but the return could be huge if he puts together a solid OBP and gets anywhere near 25/25. I learned last year with Abreu that being bold early can pay off, so why not go for it?



Round 9

Best: 1B/OF Brandon Moss (Adam) – I was obviously elated to get my #6 overall guy right here. Moss shouldn’t be out of the lineup much as CLE is already platooning one OF spot, which is one reason for optimism. The other is that most of his power production came away from OAK last year and CLE is great for left handed power hitters. A 11.6 BB% makes him potential four-category gold.

Runner-up Best: 1B Lucas Duda (Dagan) – I would’ve taken Duda if he still had OF eligibility. A 74/30/92/3/.349 line in 596 PAs is no joke and he will be the clear 1B all season in New York. At 29 with a .283 BABIP, he could become an even more proficient power hitter this season and be a keeper for seasons to come. First of several great picks for Dagan.

Worst: C Salvador Perez (Andrew) – I know hindsight is 20/20 and some really good catchers went really late, but Perez just isn’t that good. A line of 57/17/70/1/.289 is actually a hindrance in OBP and only mildly additive in HR and RBI. It would probably be more helpful if he didn’t catch 150 games. I had him as my 16th best catcher, behind guys that weren’t even drafted.

Runner-up Worst: TIE RPs Craig Kimbrel (Pierce) and Greg Holland (Kyle) – Kimbrel would’ve taken this had he not been traded because Atlanta isn’t going to win much this year. SV+HLDs can be had later. Pierce’s drafting of an NA and two RPs with his first three picks represent a massive missed opportunity.

X-Factor: OF Mark Trumbo (Jason) – This could go so many different ways. His injuries could continue and result in lackluster power to go with his lackluster patience. He could go back to his old bashing self with 35 homers and a .280 OBP. Or he could improve as an overall hitter and post those same power numbers with a solid .330 OBP. A risk worth taking.



Round 10

Best: 2B Neil Walker (Lars) – Perpetually underappreciated, Walker was the fifth best 2B in fantasy last season, better than Kinsler, Pedroia, Wong, Gordon, Kipnis and others. It’s consistent and not flashy but the end result of 74/23/76/2/.342 in 137 games is excellent. A little more healthy and a little more luck (.288 BABIP) and it’s pretty easy to see a 80/30/90/5/.340 season this year. That’s a keeper.

Runner-up Best: OF Brett Gardner (Dan) – I wasn’t sure what to make of Gardner this year  given the mediocre OBP (.327), new power (17 HR), and modest speed (21 steals). He’s 31, so the decline in speed shouldn’t be surprising. But he was always one of my favorites because he got on base and stole, so this is a little different Gardner. Still very valuable though.

Worst: 2B/SS/OF Ben Zobrist (Gibby) – Zobrist is a hard guy to value and I certainly don’t hate him, but there weren’t a lot of guys I disliked in this round. A darling of OBP lovers everywhere, his counting numbers have been on the decline and at 34, it’s hard to see them suddenly rising in a pitchers park. That 83/10/52/10/.354 from three positions is nice, but it’s also Markakis territory (81/14/50/4/.342). Meh.

Runner-up Worst: OF Jayson Werth (Brian) – I would love healthy Werth here. I don’t like had shoulder Werth here. He was going to try to rush back, but he couldn’t and I have a hard time expecting him to be 100% when he does return. That means less power and at 85/16/82/9/.394 that makes him, well, that makes him Ben Zobrist. Could still see value once he recovers fully.

X-Factor: TIE SPs Tajuan Walker (Dave) and Mike Fiers (Dave) – Sort of glad Dave took Tajuan away before I could reach. No one is more risky in this draft. His talent is undeniable but his control is spotty and there are good pitchers in Tacoma ready. Meanwhile, with Fiers, you’re really relying on a small sample size from last year and 2013 and hoping he never returns to 2014 Mike Fiers. At 30 and with no pedigree to speak of or velocity (fastball averaged 89.6 mph), he needs control to succeed. Dave needed to take chances given his draft status and these were two of his biggest.



Round 11

Best: SP Michael Pineda (Dave) – Again, I like the aggressiveness here by Dave. Mediocre keepers and a bad draft board are not easy to overcome, taking high-end chances like this can make up the difference really quick. Pineda was awesome (with or without pine tar_ last year, but his K numbers were just OK. This spring he was even better and the K rate spiked. Obviously big health risk here, but there’s certainly no talent risk.

Runner-up Best: SP Collin McHugh (Shannon) – It’s easy to diminish his results from last year when you consider his lack of pedigree and the fact that he’s been tossed out by the likes of the Mets and Rockies in recent year. But there’s nothing in last year’s excellent numbers that suggest fluke. In fact a 10.8 SwStr, 25.4 K%, 64.0 QS% and 18.7 K-BB% suggests he could get better.

Worst: SS Elvis Andrus (Brian) – Never really liked him much, but like him even less with no speed on a crappy team. When you’re a “speedster” you should be able to swipe more than 27 bags in 42 chances. No power, no OBP, bad run potential on a bad team. Jimmy Rollins is much much better and went a round later.

Runner-up Worst: SP Mat Latos (Gibby) – I went into the offseason planning to rank Latos much higher than I ended up putting him at, which was around the 50th best SP available. His numbers were down across the board last year after dealing with a knee injury. The primary concern was a nearly 2 mph drop in his fastball, but that velocity was never recovered in the spring. While MIA may help that Lohse-like 17.6 K% and low GB% (37.7%) had me steering clear.

X-Factor: SP Drew Hutchison (Adam) – Of the top 10 starters I had ranked, Hutch was the only one I was pretty confident I could get with my draft strategy. The 37.5 QS% was terrible and his 3.82 xFIP made his nearly 4.50 ERA only a little better. But I really liked his 26.6 K% in his dominant second half, which was fueled primarily by the development of his breaking ball. Of course, he’s 24, so this could easily go sideways on me, which wouldn’t be good since he’s my SP2.



Round 12

Best: SP Jose Quintana (Shomphe) – Quintana doesn’t stand out in any single place. His stuff isn’t outstanding, his rates are just pretty good, but he’s steady and that can be very valuable. A 21.5 K% and 6.3 BB% with no ERA-xFIP fluctuation at the age of 26 are signs of a steady SP3 with SP2 potential. He’s not sexy, but he’s a great addition to an already steady and talented Munchkin staff.

Runner-up Best: SP Dallas Keuchel (Shannon) – Only a little below Quintana in my book because he doesn’t strikeout that many guys, but again this is a guy whose peripherals mid-season showed sustainable dominance thanks to a breathtaking 63.5 GB%. When only one-third of the balls hit off you end up in the air, that’s going to control runs. He posted a 72.4 QS% and was fourth in KGB+ (K%+GB%+[QS%/2]-BB%], surrounded by the likes of Kershaw, Felix, Fernandez, Kluber, and Tanaka.

Worst: RPs Mark Melancon (Kyle) – Really not a bad closer and he’s on a good team too, but really not among the dominant closers taken before him. Again, I’m pretty anti-closer early, so it’s a general statement. Didn’t like Gibby’s Robertson pick at the top of the round either, but at least he was probably the next best option. Pretty sure Melancon was not.

Runner-up Worst: 2B/3B Daniel Murphy (Pierce) – He’s just really not all that good. He’s 30 and only has one valuable season under his belt. Other than 2013, he never had double digit homers or more than 13 SBs. I don’t see that suddenly changing and though he’s decent in AVG leagues, a .332 OBP is middle of the road and this is too high when an equal like Prado goes six rounds later.

X-Factor: 1B/3B Pedro Alvarez (Russ) – Though I’ve been burned by him in the past, I like his shot at recovering value in his last year with 3B eligibility. That 36 HR 100 RBI season was just in 2013, and, at the age of 28, it is conceivable that the defensive issues last year caused the drop in production. He made improvements elsewhere though and a 10.1 BB% is very good. Maybe it was just a blip, but he also could be straight platooned, which would really hurt his value.



Round 13

Best: SP John Lackey (Adam) – Sure, he’s 36, but nothing about his recent performance has shown significant regression. In fact, his average velocity was exactly the same last year. A 71.0 QS% with a 3.48 xFIP and 9.7 SwStr and 19.7 K% is excellent and that with spending most of the season in Boston. Provided he’s healthy, Lackey in the NL should be solid, safe, and steady.

Runner-up Best: SP Derek Holland (Jason) – Really splitting hairs between Lackey and Holland in my opinion, but with Holland you get a lower floor to go with the higher ceiling. He was tremendous in five starts last year, all of which were QSs. He lacked the K numbers of before, but it looks like his velocity is fine and he should be able to continue his progress from 2013 after he tripped over his dog last year and fell down the stairs, wiping out his season.

Worst: 1B Matt Adams (Andrew) – You know, a guy that fat in a premium position should generate more power than one HR every 37 plate appearances and walk far more than 4.6% of the time. He’s 26, so there’s time to improve, but he’s essentially the Billy Butler of the National League. Pearce and Morneau went in the next round, and should produce better. Then no other 1Bs were chosen until Cron in the 19th. In an OBP league, I actually liked Teixera much better and he went in the 22nd.

Runner-up Worst: OF Ben Revere (Brian) – Probably a stretch to call him a bad pick, but I’m sick of picking on closers. Unlike Eaton, who went the pick before, Revere does one thing and that is it. You can’t even count on him as a run producer given how bad PHI will be. I’ve never been a fan of drafting one dimensional guys high. I mean, Rajai wasn’t even drafted.

X-Factor: OF Dalton Pompey (Russ) – Almost had this in as the worst pick, but decided to go X factor here. He’s got some pop, he’s got on base skills, he’s in a deep lineup and a good park, so there’s enough upside to be excited about. However, the pedigree isn’t the same as Joc or Polanco taken earlier, even if the PT will be there. May be great, but risky this high.



Round 14

Best: SP Wily Peralta (Gibby) – Really, he’s a perfect pick around this time because he’s shown he’s steady (68.8 QS%, 53.6 GB%) but he’s young (26) with pedigree and some potentially great stuff (95.8 fastball velocity, 8.5 SwStr). So he’s safe but also has plenty of promise. With that velocity, he’s another pitch away from elite. He’ll have to get more Ks than 7.0 K/9 but that QS% is impressive for a youngin.

Runner-up Best: SP RA Dickey (Brian) – Though he’s 12 years older, he’s actually similar to Peralta in that he’s got plenty of upside, as evidenced by his 2013, but he’s also got a great QS% (67.6%) and stuff (10.4 SwStr). One potential difference maker this year is Dickey goes from Thole/Navarro to one of the best pitch framers in the league in Russell Martin. He’s a knuckleballer, so he’s a little more elusive than Peralta and his bad nights can go very bad, but he’s steady mid-rotation type.

Worst: RP Glen Perkins (Dan) – The revolt against RPs continues, except this time it’s a potentially injured closer on a bad team. Sounds like he’s OK to start the season, but he had issues last season and it would be a surprise if they don’t come up again at some point. I could point to a number of free agent middle relievers who will accumulate more S+H, Ks, and better rates, but that’s just mean.

Runner-up Worst: SP Yu Darvish (Shannon) – Sort of hard to gauge value for Mr. Shannon this year since his draft was pretty much over at this point. He took the same approach Gibby did with Harvey and drafted a recent TJS guy with top end talent. The problem is that Darvish’s surgery came late enough that he’s likely not going to be back to start next season, limiting his trade/keeper value. There’s value there, but it can also be extremely difficult to stash DL players for a full season. I got lucky with a healthy team last season after Fernandez went down, but not all are so lucky. Hard to limit a potentially otherworldly roster to save for the future and those DL spots are valuable.

X-Factor: SP Shelby Miller (Gibby) – There’s not a lot to like about last year’s numbers. When I put together my spreadsheets, I use conditional formatting to highlight good (red) and bad numbers (blue). Miller is a lot of blue, right down to a Fisteresque 16.6 K%. But one number that stands out is 24, his age. There’s a whole lot of pedigree and previous ace potential behind mediocre numbers. Combined with a new home in a low pressure, SP friendly environment, and you’ve got a shot at a breakout… or a massive bust.



Round 15

Best: 1B Mike Napoli (Russ) – Remember 2013, when despite missing 23 games, he posted a 79/23/93/1/.360 line? That was pretty valuable. Apply those rates from 498 ABs over 600 ABs and you get 95/28/112/1/.360. Last year’s line applied over 600 ABs was 71/25/80/3/.370. Now imagine him doing all this with no sleep. His sleep apnea issue was resolved in the offseason. He’s 33, so still in the steady production age. This could be a big season and the steal of the draft.

Runner-up Best: SP Brandon McCarthy (Dagan) – This is an interesting case of real stats vs. underlying stats. He made 32 starts and only got 16 QS, he struck out 7.9 per 9 and had an ERA of 4.05. Not anything special. But his 2.87 xFIP was 13th lowest last year among SPs, while his 20.9 K% was very good and 4.0 BB% was elite. His velocity was up 2.1 mph and GB rate was 52.6, all this playing in hitter havens ARI and NYY.  His new home is ideal, so if he can stay healthy, this can be a top 50 starter with a high floor.

Worst: SP Matt Moore (Russ) – Of all the TJS guys coming back this year (and there are many), this was the guy I liked the least (well, besides maybe Arroyo). TJS guys often come back with control and velocity issues. For a guy with spotty control who relies on velocity, that could be a real issue. Not to mention, you’re waiting until at least July to get something out of him and you’re limiting your team to one DL spot. I like the DL spot for short timers like Minor or Beachy. This is a high pick for a chance like this and I really think he would’ve been there for Russ’ last pick in the 18th and probably a free agent.

Runner-up Worst: 3B/OF Yasmani Thomas (Kyle) – The problem here is simply missed opportunity. Kyle had seven more picks to make after this and I don’t expect many were ready to jump on the broken down Yasmani bandwagon given disappointing spring training reports. Not a bad NA guy, as I’m sure he’ll be up eventually, but this was just too high.

X-Factor: 2B/3B Brett Lawrie (Dan) – Amazing how one can go from can’t miss prospect, fantasy star and keeper to fringe mid-rounder. He just can’t seem to stay healthy. Supposedly, getting him away from the turf in TOR is supposed to help that. I’m not so sure though. I do know OAK isn’t a great place for power. But he’s still immensely talented and only 25. He was on pace for a 30 HR season before he got hurt last year and was limited to 259 ABs. He was very very unlucky too with a .260 BABIP. Good upside play here.



Round 16

Best: RP Dellin Betances (Dagan) – I had a hard time with this round because there were eight closers taken, all of which (as I’ve explained), were still taken too high for my blood. That said, this is an exception. Betances was beyond elite last year and was my #3 RP coming in, despite a tough spring training. Whether he gets saves or holds shouldn’t matter much here, so I’m pretty surprised with the guys that went before him. And, as we established, I have a pretty severe bromance with Dagan.

Runner-up Best: OF Alex Rios (Pierce) – Not one of my favorite players, but a pick I liked nonetheless. Rios is as unpredictable of a fantasy asset as they come, flashing both power and speed, then having it suddenly disappear. I don’t expect a big power spike after only managing 4 HR last year, but I do this the SBs will reach the 30s with Yost’s tendency to run. He should also have R and RBI opportunities in the middle of a decent lineup.

Worst: RP Kenley Jansen (Jason) – You know what I hate more than relievers? Injured relievers! Like I said, lots of mediocrity in this round and a whopping eight RPs. I just don’t want to wait six weeks to see if he’s the same guy he was last year when I already have a DL pitcher (Smyly) that won’t be back until May. I wouldn’t mind this as much if it was at the end of someone’s draft, but Jason still had 10 picks left to make.

Runner-up Worst: OF Carlos Beltran (Russ) – Obviously this is a very talented hitter in a good lineup, but he’s 38 and coming off a 46/15/49/3/.301 season. I can buy that he’ll perform better this season and that his .252 BABIP is in line for a major correction, but the .301 OBP is a concern and he’s old enough that a drop-off should be expected for an everyday outfielder. But Russ had only two picks left at this point, so not a big value loss here.

X-Factor: SP Clay Buchholz (Kyle) – Let’s make this clear: there is nothing about his 2014 numbers that suggest any value whatsoever. However, injuries and past performance must be considered and Buchholz was near-elite in the first half of 2013. He came off the DL late last year and was decent. I like him a lot as a flyer. Not sure I like him for Kyle with several picks left, but he lines up great in his deep rotation.



Round 17

Best: OF Curtis Granderson (Lars) – This pick made me wish I waited on Moss, who I had only five spots or so above Granderson. In 2011-12 he had back to back 100/40/100 seasons, granted it was in a smaller ballpark across town, but I refuse to believe he has fallen off so much from the age of 31 to 34 to make him just the 73/20/66/8/.326 guy he was last season. A .265 BABIP suggests the .227 BA should go up, at least to his career average of .257. That 30-point bump would bring that OBP (12.2 BB%!) to .350-.360, which is quite nice. I don’t expect much speed, but he’s hitting leadoff or second so a line of 90/25/70/10/.350 is a very reasonable expectation and great value here.

Runner-up Best: 1B/3B Chase Headley (Dagan) – Another one of those guys I wish I knew would’ve been here in the 17th when I drafted Carpenter in the 10th. If you take his production in NYY last season and apply the rates to 600 abs, you get 84/18/54/9/.366. Factor in some bad luck (.286 BABIP in NYY vs. .331 career), more comfortable surroundings, new contract, healthier lineup and you get a top 10 3B this year and maybe even better if this go his way.

Worst: SP Yovani Gallardo (Dan) – I wouldn’t have minded Gallardo here, despite a precipitous drop in Ks (just a Jose de la Rosaish 6.8 per 9 last season), if he was still in the NL. He did, after all, post a 62.5 QS% last year, but man I don’t want to be anywhere near this guy when the weather heats up in Arlington and balls start flying out of that park. That rotation is just not good, which means an overworked bullpen, which mean the vets have to pitch through some bad performances. Just not liking the smell of this one.

Runner-up Worst: SP Kyle Hendricks (Andrew) – I’m always skeptical when it comes to young kids with no pedigree who perform well in a small sample size. He averaged 7.7 K/9 in his minor league career and had a 3.59 ERA in AAA when he got called up. He hardly Ks anyone (14.6 K% in the majors) and his xFIP was 3.92, which is 1.46 higher than his ERA. He’s not really a ground ball pitcher either. He’s got nice control and solid walk rates at every level, but just don’t seem him being very good and he could potentially be very bad.

X-Factor: SP Shane Greene (Dagan) – I liked this pick a lot as Greene has been a darling of the sabermatricians this offseason thanks to a beautiful 9.9 SwStr, 23.5 K%, 15.1 K-BB%, and a 3.40 xFIP in a small sample size (14 games) last season. The difference between him and Hendricks is pure stuff and Greene’s very good production in a tough pitching environment. But, he’s 26 and never much of a prospect, so there’s significant washout potential here too.



Round 18

Best: OF Khris Davis (Jason) – I kept moving him up the board as the offseason went on as I looked at his BABIP (.275), ISO (.214), and age (27), while also considering the horrible start of last year that led to him being a free agent in our league. That recovery to a pretty decent line make me think he could easily eclipse 90/30/90 and get that OBP to at least .320 or so. Experts expected a breakout last season, but I really think this will be a great year for him and tremendous value for Jason.

Runner-up Best: SS Jhonny Peralta (Dagan) – I was shocked Jonny with an H kept falling despite being Yahoo’s top hitter available for it seemed like a couple rounds. If you’re looking for speed from a middle infielder, he’s not your guy, but he’s everything else you want. Shortstops don’t get 20-plus homers and 70 RBI anymore, but Peralta is essentially a lock for at least that, while posting a solid OBP thanks to a very good 9.2 BB%. Yahoo ranked him as a 14th rounder, so excellent value at a shallow position for Dagan. (No, I love YOU more!)

Worst: 1B CJ Cron (Andrew) – Howard, Mauer, Tex, Vargas, Lind, Morales, Keith Hernanez… the list of available first basemen-onlys I liked more than Cron was pretty lengthy. Maybe he’ll get enough time in the OF to gain eligibility there, but even then he’s got horrible patience (4.0 BB%) and a Trumboesque K rate, so I don’t think LAA is pining to get him much more playing time until he shows he can improve in those areas. He had better rates in the minors, so there’s some hope.

Runner-up Worst: SP AJ Burnett (Kyle)– He’s back in Pittsburgh and still has great stuff, but he’s 38 and is coming off a season when he only converted 44.1% of his starts to QSs and his walk rate was a wretched 10.3% while his K rate continued to slide (8.0 K/9). His xFIP liked him a little more but it still wasn’t any good (3.95). The problem with a guy like Burnett is there’s an inherent hesitancy to ditch once things go south because of past dominance. I’m ready to say the dominant days are over. He’ll be better, but not this good.

X-Factor: 2B/3B/SS Marcus Semien (Dave) – The big name at the start of spring training came back to Earth as the spring went on, but he still had plenty of talent worth drafting around this point. The big thing here is a 8.2 BB% and history of patience that is unique for young middle infielders. He’ll have 2B/3B/SS eligibility in short order, providing extra value. But the ceiling isn’t terribly high according to scouts, so expectations need to be kept in check. The A’s aren’t the most patient team.



Round 19

Best: OF Desmond Jennings (Dagan) – From keeper to first rounder to 19th rounder? There’s definitely reason to lessen the once heady promise of this top prospect as this is his age 28 season and he’s not emerged as expected. But still, he’s better than his injury plagued 64/10/36/15/.319 line in 123 games from 2014. He’ll get back to .330 or so with 25 steals and a bit more power. He’s moved down in the lineup, but that might help get more RBI opportunities and less pressure to lead things off. (Kisses!)

Runner-up Best: SS Alcides Escobar (Adam) – I set out to wait on SS and try to get some speed, so I was delighted to find Alcides waiting for me at this point in the draft. With a conversion rate over 80% and a new role as full-time leadoff hitter after last postseason’s success, he looks like he could even exceed last year’s 31 SB. He’s not much for waiting (3.7 BB%) but he puts the ball in play (13.4 K%) and was one of four players to play in every game last season. For a team with good OBP overall, he’s a perfect complement.

Worst: 1B Billy Butler (Dan) – A regular entry to the Worst list, even his fall into the later rounds couldn’t sway my distaste for this guy. Really though, in 549 ABs you expect a 29 year-old with no discernible defensive presence to put together something much better than 57/9/66/0/.323. He wasn’t even patient last year. He was James Loney and, I’m sorry, but that sucks. Playing in a large park in Plattonville, USA means he might even be worse this year. Barf.

Runner-up Worst: SP Joe Kelly (Pierce) – There are people who really like his makeup and stuff, but it simply has not come out in the box scores. I mean, if you’re going to walk more than 10% of the players you go up against, you need a better K rate than 15.9%. That’s 6.2 Ks and 3.9 BB per nine, if you’re scoring at home. To go along with a 47.1 QS%, a 4.19 xFIP that was identical to his ERA, and an injury to start the season, I’d say this is a pretty clear pass (yes, even if he does play for the Red Sox, Pierce).

X-Factor: SP Aaron Sanchez (Gibby) – Sanchez was great as a reliever last year and looked like he could start the season there again, but injuries forced him into the rotation. It may be a good thing. The problem is he doesn’t have much of a third pitch and he is wild. That doesn’t usually mean a smooth transition for young pitchers. But his pedigree is outstanding as is the pure stuff, so it’s certainly worth a shot cus if he gets 180 IP, he’s gonna get 180 Ks. Big IF though.



Round 20

Best: SP TJ House (Gibby) – Taken from my grasps just as I had him queued up, House rose to my attention when I did my annual KGB+ calculation as he was in the top 50 starters, but I had never thought twice about him other than a soft-tossing swingman. But the more I looked, the more I liked, particularly that stunning 60.9 GB% and 5.1 BB%. That means control. His 9.3 SwStr indicates that 18.7 K% could get up to 20.0% with some simple development (he’s 25). Mix in some glowing reports about his four above-average pitches and an opportunity thanks to Gavin Floyd’s injury and Danny Salazar’s demotion, and you got a bonafide sleeper. Really mad I missed out here.

Runner-up Best: SS Jean Segura (Lars) – We may never see a Segura like we did in the first half of 2013, but I’m pretty certain we will definitely never see a Segura like we did in 2014. His son died midway through the season and, to add injury to insult, Braun smashed his head with a bat in an errant warm up swing. He dealt with leg injuries too and was all together not good. But he was a legit prospect and is much better than last year’s line, which included a meager 66% SB conversion. He’s 25 and should be back to 70/10/50/30/.320, which is just fine for a SS.

Worst: SP Edinson Volquez (Brian) – The only way I could have seen being entranced by him again was if he stayed in Pittsburgh. I mean, he flopped in SD of all places. Last year was great even though his K rate dropped to a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 to go with 3.3 BB/9, but he converted 61.3% of his starts to QS.  But that 3.04 ERA isn’t so great when you look at his 4.20 xFIP. With a walk rate near 9%, a new ballpark and pitching staff, diminishing strikeout rates, and advancing age (31), I see a lot more harm than help.

Runner-up Worst: 1B Joe Mauer (Dave) – I’d be all over him here if he was still a catcher, but unfortunately he doesn’t have the supporting cast to beef his R and RBI numbers up enough to make his dearth of power even palatable. Maybe it was just the injuries, which limited him to 120 games, and perhaps his power will improve this year. He can still take a base, but, you know, so could Daric Barton. In fact, he kind of looks like Daric Barton.

X-Factor: 3B/SS Miguel Sano (Adam) – I took a page out of Dagan’s (*fawn*) playbook from last year, as he was the only team to extract any real value out of the NA position, even if Bryant never played last year. I’m hoping for the same thing here as this was my top NA target. I’m sort of glad I didn’t realize he had SS eligibility until after the draft because I would’ve taken him a lot sooner. Imagine slotting Bryant’s power into your SS slot? He should get the call at some point, which will make him either an asset to play or trade.



Round 21

Best: TIE C Yasmani Grandal (Shannon), C Travis d’Arnaud (Shomphe), and C Mike Zunino (Kyle) – Reasons #1, 2, and 3 why I thought of waiting to draft a catcher until very late. There were just more than 14 intriguing options. Yasmani is hurt by AJ Ellis cutting in on his playing time, but had an excellent 13.1 BB% and wasn’t acquired to sit the bench. All have intriguing power and pedigree. Grandal and d’Arnaud, both 26, had nearly identical lines with approximately 45/15/45 in 380 abs to go with identical ISOs (.174). Zunino has no patience (3.6 BB%) but that power (.205 ISO) translates to an easy 30 HR with a little production from this 24 year old. I have little doubt that at least one of these guys will be a top 5 catcher next season. Unfortunately, I think I can only give Kyle credit as I believe Chris Shannon was asleep and Chris Shomphe ended up dropping d’Arnaud (he had Santana).

Runner-up Best: 1B/OF Michael Cuddyer (Brian) – Tough to know what to expect when a guy goes from COL to NYM, turns 36, and had a .351 BABIP, but his rates from last year applied to 600 abs would get you around 90/30/90/10/.375, which is wondrous. But he doesn’t have to be wondrous to have value here as he’ll be slotted in the lineup as long as he’s healthy and should put up good counting stats to go with a very good tidy OBP. Great bench guy.

Worst: 2B/SS Jose Peraza (Pierce) – Not sure Pierce knew who he was selecting here. I mean, he’s not bad, but he’s not really that good either. He’s also not going to be Pierce’s NA guy as long as he has Rodon and Rusney. When he comes up, he’ll provide some nice speed from the middle infield positions, but I’m quite certain the consensus number one prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton, would’ve been a much much much better selection here.

Runner-up Worst: SP Jimmy Nelson (Dave) – He’s a decent shot at strikeouts at this point given his good minor league numbers, but he’s a guy who never made it far up the prospect list (well, except to the top of MIL’s feeble farm system) because he lacked a good third pitch. Nothing is bad, but nothing is that good either. If he gets a reliable third pitch, we may be on to something but expect volatility in the meantime.

X-Factor: 3B Alex Rodriguez (Dave) – While I’d like to put Brian’s selection of Micah Johnson here because he’s much more interesting to talk about, clearly the biggest gap between potential ceiling and floor here is A-Rod. It’s hard to know given his most recent poor production, a full season away from the game, an assumed lack of juice in his caboose, his age, the lack of true position, and the Yankees rather vague public comments about how much he’ll be playing. I suppose if he’s good and they’re in contention, he’ll be out there. Again, this was worth a shot for Dave as the payoff could be huge.



Round 22

Best: 3B Aramis Ramirez (Dave) – The swan song for one of my all-time binkies, he’s never been the best in the game but he was always pretty reliable and productive. I remember Matt Mills (Wells High reference) talking about him as a 19-year-old prospect for the Pirates back in high school. I think this is a steal. He wasn’t nearly as good in his injury-shortened 2014 as he was in his injury-shortened 2013, he had a line of 92/27/105/9/.360 in 2012. At 37, any semblance of that would be highly valuable this late.

Runner-up Best: C Miguel Montero (Gibby) – Another one of the reasons I though I’d wait on catchers, I had Miggy all last season and was very happy. There’s something to be said for a catcher that plays five days a week with double-digit pop, 72 RBI and who walks 10.0% of the time. He’s not flashy, but sometimes all you need is a steady presence of production in a position that often produces a lot of holes.

Worst: 2B/3B Jace Peterson (Lars) – Not sure Lars meant to take him or not, but he’s not really all that go. I know he’s shown up on prospect lists before and was one of the players acquired in the Upton deal (the first one), but I don’t know enough about him to consider him worth drafting. If he plays everyday and bats leadoff for ATL, Lars may be onto something. A .287/.381/.411 triple slash in the minors isn’t bad, but the speed he showed in the low minors didn’t really show in the high minors as he only swiped 16 of the 25 attempts in 382 abs in AA/AAA.

Runner-up Worst: RP Jake McGee (Pierce) – Another injured RP. He had a nice year, but its unclear what role he’ll be in when he gets back, especially if Boxberger performs as he is capable. With Rusney, Kelly, Rodon, and Peraza, that’s a lot of dead spots on Pierce’s roster at this point. I know he doesn’t like to make a lot of moves, but he might have to this year.

X-Factor: SP Justin Masterson (Adam) – Masterson is the type of guy I like to take a shot at late. Last year was a bust, clearly. A 1.63 WHIP and 11.7 BB% is just awful. But in 2013, he had a 62.1 QS% with a 3.52 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 188 K in 189 IP. That’s SP3 territory. Considering he played with a leg injury most the season and signed on for a one-year contract, this is a risk worth taking. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t hurt to throw him back.



Round 23

Best: SP Bartolo Colon (Lars) – Old (fat) man time just keeps on keepin on. His fastball keeps getting slower (88.7 mph) and he’s severely flyball heavy (39.3 GB%), but he knows where to put the ball (3.6 BB%!) even if no one swings and misses (5.6 SwStr). The 64.5 QS% is very good and he’s really pretty consistent even if he doesn’t have the flash of others. He’s 42, so the downfall is coming, but he can be a nice steady producer for Lars.

Runner-up Best: SP Dan Haren (Kyle) – Haren is kind of like Colon in a way, as his velocity is way down (87.7 mph), he’s flyball heavy (41.5 GB%) and the K numbers are down across the board, but he has control (4.6 BB%) and had a pretty good 56.3 QS%, which could improve with the move to a more SP-friendly park. He’s only 34 though, so it’s possible some adjustments could even improve his numbers. But he was sort of noncommittal as to whether he was going to play this year, so we’ll see how the year goes, but definitely a solid back-end type for Kyle.

Worst: RP Jesse Chavez (Kyle) – Not a starter, not a closer, not even the set-up guy. Long relievers are basically the worst type of pitcher to have in the current format, so it’s sort of a wasted pick and useless roster spot.

Runner-up Worst: RP Sean Doolittle (Shannon) – Not a horrible pick, other than he’s injured and closers with jobs like Joe Nathan and Jenrry Mejia were available. With Darvish and Cobb occupying two DL slots, a May expected return, my outlook for the A’s, and the devaluing of the save category as a whole, I’m not sure Doolittle is worth hanging on to.

X-Factor: OF Travis Snider (Dave) – Dave officially replaced Jason as Mr. X this year. Again, I liked the signing from the O’s and I like the draft pick for Dave. He was a consensus top five prospect for the Jays not that long ago but struggled to justify playing time. He’s 27 now, the age when players often breakout, so the improvements he made last year (including a 9.5 BB%) bode well for season in which he could get full-time at bats for the first time in his career. If he struggles though, it’ll be back to a platoon.



Round 24

Best: RP Joe Nathan (Gibby) – Look, he’s not that good anymore. But really? The only way players get to accumulate saves or holds is to be on a team that wins and DET is designed to do just that. The odds aren’t great that he’ll hold the closer spot all season, but they’re not that bad either.

Runner-up Best: 1B Kennys Vargas (Shannon) – There’s some big-time power potential that is more than worth a last round investment. He’s 24 with a big K rate (26.9%) and no patience (5.1 BB%), but he hit 9 HR in 215 ABs and should get full-time ABs this season, so there’s an opportunity for real value. He may just be Ryan Howard from last season, but that’s something.

Worst: C Andrew Susac (Gibby) – Huh? Was he at the top of the list because he’s a catcher who starts with “A”? He’s a decent prospect, but not one worth using the lone NA slot on.

Runner-up Worst: OF Jon Jay (Shomphe) – I think this was the point where Chris realized his list of draftable players wasn’t long enough.

X-Factor: SP Brandon Beachy (Dave) – And one more X-Factor for the X-man. This is a good DL stash. He’s well over TJS now, in a pitchers park, with a rotation full of potential fragile starters ahead of him (Ryu, McCarthy, Anderson). Obviously, he’s flashed 200-K before, so it’s just a matter of biding time until the opportunity arises.