Offseason Preview

All right boys. I know your balls are deflated, but I'm here to pump them up and give them a good rub. 

These ranks are both quantitative and qualitative. The pick score is entirely generated from a formula providing points for picks in certain rounds on a sliding scale. The keeper scores are  quantitative in that I gave each potential keeper a score (based on 2015 outlook only, not beyond) and assumed each team selects the optimal group of six based on these scores. Obviously, this is my judgement and you are certainly open to your own valuation. I'd prefer not to give my exact scores for each player for competitive purposes, but I could speak in generalities about the rankings if you have questions. 

The scores are very close in many cases, so this ranking could be greatly impacted by a few trades. So have at it and let's start offseason. 

(Let me know if you have a different preferred email address)

1. Mike Ehrman-Trout – Russell Stutsky (rstutsky@hotmail.com)

Locks:  OF Mike Trout, SP Clayton Kershaw, 2B Robinson Cano, SP Masahiro Tanaka

Options:  SS Starlin Castro, SP Gerrit Cole, SP Jacob deGrom, 1B Mark Teixeira, SP Noah Syndergaard

Keeper Score: 47 (2^nd)

Pick Score:  115 (2^nd)

ANALYSIS: This really wasn’t close. At a time when most teams had to choose between good keepers and a good draft board, Russ managed to get both. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him first in keepers and picks by the time the offseason is over, with #1 draft Chris Shannon possibly dealing picks to upgrade keepers and my team (#1 keeper) looking to deal Hamels. Trout is just from a different dimension (115/36/111/16/.377), even if he’s running less. Kershaw is to (24/239/1.77/0.86 in 198 ip). No other team had two 10s (1-10 scale) in my book, but I feel he is short on keepers because the last two slots are just decent. Castro was better, but not great at 58/14/64/4/.339. Still, he’s only 24 with pedigree. Cole didn’t dominate as many expected, but he was hurt and still managed to K 24.2% of the guys he faced. De Grom was awesome with 2.69/1.14, 77.3 QS%, and 25.5 K%, but his outofnowhereness makes it difficult to set expectations for 2015. Kershaw, Trout, and Cano are all long-time keepers, and all have been consistently excellent producers, though Seattle may be having an effect on Cano’s numbers (77/14/82/10/.382). That’s really only Jayson Werth production. But, with second base the shallowest position out there, a track record of outperformance, and a better lineup around him, it’s logical to expect that to improve. Teix was injured but if you take his rates from 440 abs and apply them to 700 abs you get 89/35/99/1/.313 – could be a lot worse, but also assumes health at the age of 35. Syndergaard is a nice prospect, but might be waiting a while to get to the bigs unless the Mets start dealing some starters. The draft board is excellent with three 9s and no picks after 18. Clearly, Russ is in fine position no matter what he decides to do.

2. Montezuma’s Revenge – Adam Leech (adrok71@yahoo.com)

Locks:  OF Andrew McCutchen, 1B Jose Abreu, 3B Anthony Rendon, 1B Anthony Rizzo, SP Corey Kluber, SP Cole Hamels

Options:  SP Alex Cobb, OF Starling Marte, OF Matt Holliday, SP Garrett Richards, SP Marcus Stroman, SP Alex Wood

Keeper Score: 49 (1^st)

Pick Score: 73 (10^th)

ANALYSIS: I tried to objectively rank the keepers as best I could, but my top six kept rising to the top. I felt justified after looking at expert rankings and early mock drafts and seeing my top four guys consistently in the top 20 overall (one had all four in the top 12), with the pitchers (and Marte) not far behind. The difference between my roster and Russ’ is just depth, which Russ traded off at the deadline (CarGo, Hanley). My typically mediocre keepers were boosted greatly by the draft last year, with Abreu (80/36/107/3/.383) in the 7^th, Kluber (26/269/2.44/1.09) in the 16^th, and Rendon (111/21/83/17/.351) in the 19^th. Cutch is a five-category top 5 player, especially in an OBP league. Rizzo exploded last year (89/32/78/5/.386) and is only going to get better with an improving lineup around him. The draft board is greatly hindered by the lack of a first round pick and holes in 12, 14, and 15. But Hamels (25/198/2.46/1.15) should bring a nice return and Cobb (17/149/2.87/1.14 in166 ip), Holliday (83/20/90/4/.370), and Richards would all be fine keepers for someone’s team. Richards was on pace for a 25/217/2.61/1.04  before he injured his knew covering first, ending his season at 168 ip. Stroman, 24, looks like the real deal. Wood, also 24, also was fantastic at 19/170/2.78/1.14 in 171 ip. And at age 26, this could be the year Marte puts it all together and stays healthy for a season; keeping him would give me six keepers under the age of 30. This team should be highly productive for this year and for years to come thanks to the young core, and a draft board that should improve shortly.

3. Ring of Fire – Dagan Loisel (dagan.loisel@gmail.com)

Locks:  1B Paul Goldshmidt, OF Hunter Pence, 1B Joey Votto

Options:  OF Jay Bruce, 1B Lucas Duda, OF Charlie Blackmon, 3B Kris Bryant, C Yadier Molina, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SP Mat Latos

Keeper Score: 37 (10^th)

Pick Score:  109 (3^rd)

ANALYSIS:  Dagan has Jason to thank for this rank. The megadeal brought him 35 rounds of pick upgrade and the keeper loss was mild (Kemp, HBailey, Arrieta, Shields). Goldy is the real stud, but things fall off quite a bit from there. It’s a little unusual to write that considering how good Dagan’s keepers have been in the past. Which is weird because its essentially the same group. The problem is the guys he had just fell off. Pence is great (106/20/74/13/.332), but more of a guy you’d like as your fourth best keeper. Votto simply is not the stud he used to be, but at 30 there’s enough to consider him a lock and he’s uniquely dominant in OBP. Bruce’s 18 HR and .281 OBP in 545 abs was a major disappointment, while Duda’s 30 jacks and .349 OBP were major surprises. Blackmon had a great season (82/19/72/28/.335) but it was mostly at the beginning of the season and he tailed off significantly toward the end. Bryant is a man of significant intrigue, but it is unclear when he’ll be up. Yadie is perpetually overrated as his position-relative stats are great, but overall isn’t much of a contributor. Zimmerman is going to 1B, so that could help keep him healthy, but he’s not the automatic keeper he once was. Meanwhile, Latos’ velocity was down last year and the results were just OK (17.6 K%); Miami should help if he’s healthy but value is down presently. So, not great, but not bad if Votto recovers. For picks, of course, the big deal fueled this ranking as Dagan is set to be done drafting after the 19^th and has two second rounders, but most of his extra picks are in rounds 14-18. Dagan is always in it, and this year should be no different.

4.  Donkey Punchers – Chris Shannon (christophershannon9@gmail.com)

Locks:  SP Adam Wainright, 3B Kyle Seager, OF Michael Brantley, 1B Prince Fielder

Options:  OF Mookie Betts, OF Gregory Polanco, 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Aramis Ramirez, SP Kevin Gausman, SP Carlos Carrasco, OF Joc Pederson

Keeper Score: 35 (12^th)

Pick Score: 129 (1^st)

ANALYSIS: No team is more imbalanced than this one in terms of rank, but there’s a lot of potential in the keepers as they stand. The top four all seem solid enough, but there are questions. Seager seems safe after two years of high production, including 71/25/96/7/.334 last year. Brantley had a ridiculous season at 94/20/97/23/.385; another season even just close to that would make him a legit stud. At 28, it could happen. Meanwhile, Prince is still just 30, so there’s no reason to think he can’t produce in Texas. But, still, the group lacks high-level talent. Waino was OK, but 179 Ks isn’t what you expect and that 3.34 xFIP makes his 2.38 ERA look a tinge lucky. Plus, he’s 32, so he’s not suddenly getting better. The last two spots as they stand bring the group down a bit. I love most of the guys in that group, but I am not sure any of them would be in my top 84 (14 teams X 6 keepers) – maybe Mookie if was assured playing time but that’s a leap right now. I like Polanco, but he was just OK last year and is a stretch as a keeper. Though he’s only 25, it’s probably time to admit Hosmer just isn’t worth holding on to. He shines bright at points and he’s got the pedigree, but the bottom line is 54/9/58/2/.318. Nuf said. On the bright side, we haven’t seen a draft board this great since the last time Chris sold off. His picks are so good, he should get a higher rank than first. Currently, his draft would end after the 14^th. As it stands, Gibby will have made five picks by the time Chris is done making all 17 of his. Crazy stuff. Should help the Punchers get off to a good start regardless of whether he upgrades keepers.

5. Moose is Loose – Brian Bishop (brianleebishop@gmail.com)

Locks:  SS Troy Tulowitski, OF Carlos Gonzalez, SP Zack Grienke

Options:  1B Chris Davis, SP Cliff Lee, SP Julio Teheran, 1B Joe Mauer, OF Chris Carter, SS Elvis Andrus, SP Jose Quintana, SP Dallas Keuchel

Keeper Score: 40 (6^th)

Pick Score: 82 (8^th)

ANALYSIS:  The names are pretty but the question marks are big. The problem is three of the question marks have nothing to do with talent and everything to do with significant injury concerns with Tulo, CarGo, and Lee. If all those guys play up to their potential, Brian will be right in the middle of it all. Other than Russ, Brian probably has the greatest balance between picks and players, which makes sense since he couldn’t decide whether to buy or sell at the deadline last year. I would say the distance between the ceiling of his current keepers and the basement is probably the greatest in the league because of how good, and brittle, these guys are. Grienke (21/207/2.71/1.15) and Teheran (25/186/2.89/1.08) are safe and talented. No one knows what to expect from Chris Davis, but 65/26/72/2/.300 is not keeper-worthy. Still, it’s hard to forget that incredible 103/53/138/4/.370 season in 2013. As for Chris Carter (68/37/88/5/.308), his hot streaks are fun but you have to put up with those polar vortex streaks too. There’s a reason he was drafted in the fifth round and was available to be picked up off waivers on July 12^th. Keuchel (21/146/2.93/1.18) and Quintana (21/178/3.32/1.24) – each in 200 ip exactly – had fine seasons, but don’t K enough for keepers. Elvis has lived on reputation only, with a mediocre output of 72/2/41/27/.314 in 619 abs last year; amazing he hasn’t had his age 27 season yet. Mauer appears to be just a pretty name now, with a disappointing 60/4/55/3/.361 in 455 abs. The draft board is just below the baseline score (90), with only a 9^th rounder missing from the early part of the draft. Brian could probably sit tight if he wanted to, but the intrigue in the top names he has may make him want to explore what is out there.

6. I Ate The Munchkins – Chris Shomphe (cshomphe@yahoo.com)

Locks:  1B Miguel Cabrera, OF Yasiel Puig, SP Felix Hernandez, C Carlos Santana

Options:  3B David Wright, OF Yoenis Cespedes, SP Jon Lester, SP Jordan Zimmermann, RP Craig Kimbrel, SP Chris Archer

Keeper Score: 46 (3^rd)

Pick Score:  71 (11^th)

ANALYSIS: Miggy’s numbers weren’t as superior as the two prior years at 101/25/109/1/.371, but that’s still incredibly good. And he was rumored to be dealing with an injury all season, which may have sapped some of his power. A return to 35 HRs isn’t out of the question. Meanwhile, it was tough to deal a guy like Giancarlo but Puig (92/16/69/11/.382) is 24 and projects to have more speed longer, and doesn’t have the injury history. Still, that’s a lot of power to lose and Puig’s value is living off style points and hype. His 162-game average at this point in his career is 102/23/71/14/.386, which isn’t close to Giancarlo. This is an important year. Felix is Felix; he’s 29 and awesome (27/248/2.14./0.92). Meanwhile, Santana could maintain his catcher eligibility (11 games), which would be a huge advantage at 68/27/85/5/.365. There’s a lot of options for the two other spots, but none are locks. At age 32, Wright dealt with injuries and only posted 54/8/63/8/.324 in 535 abs. Cespedes’ counting numbers benefited from his surrounding cast with 89 runs and 100 RBI, which is great. But 22 HR, 7 steals, and a .301 OBP is crap – Mark Reynolds did that in 222 less abs. Still, there’s a high ceiling, a contract year, and a tremendous lineup to consider. Lester had an excellent season (27/220/2.46/1.10), but it was not consistent with recent outputs. Perhaps it was the contract year, but he’s in the NL now too. Zimmermann is awesome and consistent, but 182 Ks is just good. I’ll be interested to see if anyone keeps closers. If we go to SV+HLD, saves becomes less important. But then again, the lesser value of the saves could make the focus change from quantity (cumulative saves) to quality (Ks, rates). Kimbrel is one of a handful who would be considered, but the Braves are not going to be very good. Archer is an up and comer, but isn’t there yet due to an 8.8 BB%. The draft board is poor as he lacks 9^th and 10^th picks, with a big gap in 14-16. But he’s got depth of talent to improve that board. Overall, the keeper talent will keep this team chugging along.

7. Keepin it Real... – Pierce Cole (ptcole21@hotmail.com)

Locks: SP Chris Sale, OF Jacoby Ellsbury, SP Max Scherzer, SS Ian Desmond

Options: 2B Dustin Pedroia, OF Jayson Heyward, C Jonathan Lucroy, RP Aroldis Chapman, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, 3B Matt Carpenter, OF Christian Yelich, OF Rusney Castillo, 1B Adam Laroche

Keeper Score: 39 (7^th)

Pick Score: 82 (8^th)

ANALYSIS: You could mock Pierce for being a homer or overly protective of his guys, but his loyalty to guys like Ells, Pedy, Sale, Scherzer, and Desmond has paid off in recent years. His loyalty to Wright epitomizes this. However, it appears as though he knows when to cut ties at the right time. While his OBP leaves much to be desired, its time for Desmond to be considered among the stars (73/24/91/24/.313). That is huge production from a spot that is mostly barren. And he’s only 29. Sale and Scherzer gives Pierce an incredible advantage in Ks and two of a handful of guys who can get to 300 K. Scherzer may get there now that he’s facing opposing pitchers 3-4 times a game. Pedy’s name looks good but 72/7/53/6/.337 in 551 abs looks more like vintage Brandon Crawford than this one-time MVP. Heyward’s numbers (74/11/58/20/.351) also don’t live up to the name. Minus the OBP, the rest of it is BJ Upton’s 2014. Lucroy (73/13/69/4/.373) is excellent, but just a really good catcher and the stats aren’t compelling enough. Like Kimbrel, Chapman’s worth is a matter of debate. I can say I’ve never seen a 52.5 K% and a 17.7 K/9 before. His fastball averaged 100.3 mph. Crazy. Iwakuma is great but doesn’t K a lot and 17/154/3.52/1.05 is more like a third or fourth starter. Carpenter (99/8/59/5/.375) was just OK after a great 2013. Yelich is potentially great with a 94/9/54/21/.362 at 22, and Castillo has promise but is an unknown.  The draft board is fine, with a missing10 and 11, but a pretty even distribution after that. He could improve the situation, but I’m not sure by how much if he won’t deal his two big arms. But that’s OK. Pierce will be competitive again.

8. Angry Pirates – Kyle Baker (kdub92584@yahoo.com)

Locks: OF Giancarlo Stanton, OF Justin Upton, 3B Todd Frazier, OF Adam Jones

Options:  3B Manny Machado, OF Marcell Ozuna

Keeper Score: 38 (8^th)

Pick Score: 97 (6^th)

ANALYSIS: Kyle’s team has turned over quite a bit over the past year. None of these guys were on the team before last offseason, but it’s a good group with considerable power, as Giancarlo (89/37/105/13/.395), Upton (77/29/102/8/.342), Jones (88/29/96/7/.311), and Frazier (88/29/80/20/.336) combined for 124 HR. Jones gets a bit overrated because his average is OK, but his OBP is dreadful and speed is basically gone now, but he’s only now turning 29. The final two spots are iffy and Kyle will likely be looking to deal at least one. Judging by him dealing VMart and Sonny Gray to get Machado, I’m assuming that he will be kept. Even though he is only turning 23 in July, his 162-game average so far in his career is 84/18/72/6/.313. That’s not to say those won’t improve, but his inability to take a pitch (5.6 BB%) and lack of interest in running aren’t aspects that typically don’t change quickly. Even if he’s great in the three other categories, the upside is capped unless he improves in those places. Ozuna (72/23/85/3/.317) is fine and only just 24, but is not a top 84 guy with little patience (6.7 BB%), a lot of Ks (26.8%), and a bunch of lunch (.337 BABIP). Kyle’s a good starter away from one of the best groups of keepers. It’s not necessary to have an “ace” but it will have to be an early focus in the draft if he doesn’t. The draft board is above average with two 10ths and 11ths, so he’s got some currency to play with. Overall, we know he will once again have incredible outfield. If Machado improves and Frazier can repeat, this team will have a very good core and with a decent draft could be right in the thick of it.

9. Anal Hersheiser – Andrew Campbell (anrcampbell@gmail.com)

Locks:  SP Madison Bumgarner, 3B Josh Donaldson, OF George Springer

Options:  OF Wil Myers, OF Billy Hamilton, SP Tyson Ross, 1B Mike Napoli

Keeper Score:  36 (11^th)

Pick Score: 107 (4^th)

ANALYSIS: If all these keepers have the best year of their careers, this could be an excellent group. But the problem is only Bumgarner and Donaldson are not still developing. Neither Springer (25), Myers (24), nor Hamilton (24) has put together a season worth keeping at the moment, but all three are more than capable. Ross (22/195/2.81/1.21) had a great season, but, at 28, he’s really not all that young so this might be his ceiling. If Springer maintained his rates over 700 abs last season, he’d have something in the range of 90/40/100/10/.340, which is outstanding. And while his K rate is troubling (33.0%), his walk rate is excellent (11.3%). Hard to rely on that though since he started slow, got really hot, then hurt and only finished with 295 abs. Myers, meanwhile, would’ve done something like 70/15/70/15/.300 in full-time action. Not too exciting. San Diego doesn’t help, but we’re still talking about a former top 5 prospect. Hamilton could steal 75 and score 100 runs, but not much else. Napoli (49/17/55/3/.370 in 415 abs) won’t get ranked high, but he’s quality in OBP leagues (15.6 BB%) and has fixed his sleep apnea. There’s potential in this group for sure, especially with Donaldson (93/29/98/8/.342) in TOR now, but the question is value. I’m not sure Myers, Hamilton, or Ross are top 84 guys at this point. For all the hype about Hamilton (72/6/48/56/.292) being potentially the first 100 sb guy since Henderson, he’s not going to get there getting on base less than 30% of the time and get caught stealing 30% of the time.  Speaking of the draft, Andrew is sitting pretty with two 8ths, four 17ths, and he’s done drafting in the 19th. That’s a lot of quality, but again, the upper level talent here doesn’t compare to other teams. To keep up with the current group, Andrew would need a great early draft and for these young guys to produce.

10. One Nut Wonders – Jason Oullette (weletz23@yahoo.com)

Locks: OF Ryan Braun, OF Jose Bautista, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, SP Johnny Cueto

Options:  2B Jason Kipnis, OF Corey Dickerson, SS Xander Bogaerts, SS Jose Reyes, OF Matt Kemp, SP Jake Arrieta, 3B Nolan Arenado, SP Andrew Cashner, SP James Shields, SP Gio Gonzalaez, OF Byron Buxton, RP Kenley Jensen

Keeper Score: 42 (5^th)

Pick Score: 71 (11^th)

ANALYSIS: It may be surprising to see our champion down this low, but the reason Jason did so well was not top-level talent – it was a very deep roster. He acquired this incredible depth by dealing this year’s picks for his stretch run. But he’s going to have to put on his best salesman hat to turn that depth into a better draft board. There’s no reason not to like Bautista and AGone, but the two other locks have questions. Braun was not good (68/19/81/11/.324 in 530 abs); he was Curtis Granderson (73/20/66/8/.326). I graded him high because of his history and the thumb injury, but he could Votto next season if this is the post-juice Braun we will see going forward. Cueto (29/242/2.25/0.96) was fantastic, maybe the best pitcher in baseball, but his previous best was (23/170/3.27/1.17) two years ago and he missed most of 2013 with injuries. It was a considerable leap forward and his xFIP (3.21) suggests he got a bit lucky. I think he’ll be fine, but it’s hard to expect last year’s numbers again. Kipnis, 28, who he acquired via trade for Cueto before acquiring him again, was pretty bad last year (61/6/41/22/.310 in 500 abs) after a great 2013. If you project Dickerson’s stats in 478 PAs over 700 PAs, you get a line of 108/35/111/11/.364, which is first round worthy. That’s difficult to expect from a 26 year-old with no pedigree who the Rox thought was just a fourth OF. At 21, Xander was awful. Reyes was fine (94/9/51/30/.328 in 600 abs), but not discernibly better than Andrus (72/2/41/27/.314) and is six years older. Kemp was good (77/25/89/8/.346), but he’s inconsistent and is going to an even more pronounced pitchers park. Arrieta was great but maybe the most out of nowhere guy. Arenado is 24 and emerging, but the numbers (58/18/61/2/.328 in 432 abs) don’t scream keeper. Cashner (14/93/2.55/1.13 in 123 ip), Gio (17/162/3.57/1.20 in 158, and Shields (2.24/180/3.21/1.18) in 227 ip were good but not keepers. Jensen is there with Kimbrel and Chapman, and not really a keeper. And Buxton really is just silly to hang on to as he’s not expected in Minnesota until Sept. In the draft, he’s got some decent size holes thanks to the deadline blockbuster. He’s missing 8, 11, 14-16 with an extra 9^th. Jason should be able to fill in some of those holes and will probably improve this rank. Regardless, he will be competitive – he always is.

11. Sexual Napalm – Mike Gibson (mgibson744@yahoo.com)

Locks:  OF Carlos Gomez, 1B Freddie Freeman, SP Yu Darvish, SP Stephen Strasburg, OF Hanley Ramirez, 3B Adrian Beltre, 1B Victor Martinez

Options:  2B Brian Dozier, SP Matt Harvey, SP Zach Wheeler, SP Sonny Gray, 2B Dee Gordon, RP Greg Holland

Keeper Score: 46 (3^rd)

Pick Score: 60 (14^th)

ANALYSIS: When you look at the teams with the top keepers, you’re mostly splitting hairs when trying to compare them. Mike has arguably the deepest group and a lot of currency to deal. The top guy is “the real CarGo” (95/23/73/34/.356), whose emergence has made him a top 10 value. Freeman (93/18/78/3/.386) was disappointing, but his high BABIP makes that even look fluky. At just 25 and could bounce back, but his supporting cast is decidedly worse. Darvish’s health is concerning, but that 30.1 K% is exciting going into his age 28 season. Strasburg (24/242/3.14/1.12) was actually better than his numbers suggest last year (2.54 xFIP) and he’s just 26. Big season ahead. Hanley should be fine Boston. But the two 36-year-olds bring questions as Beltre (79/19/77/1/.388) attempts to return to his former first around self and VMart seeks to prove his 87/32/103/3/.409 season wasn’t a fluke. Mike could deal any of the locks for a nice return, or find buyers for the other guys. Dozier put together a 112/23/71/21/.345 season in a bad lineup and, though he trailed off as the season progressed, is a keeper. Harvey’s a bit of a risk, but he was really good before TJS. But will the Mets let him get passed 180 ip? Wheeler is young and talented but has a questionable walk rate (10.0%) and WHIP (1.33). Gray was solid all around at 26/183/3.08/1.19 in 219 innings. All three of those SPs have the talent to leap be top 10 starters. Like Hamilton, Gordon offer wheels and runs and little else (92/2/34/64/.326). Holland is in the Kimbrel, Jensen, Chapman tier, but probably isn’t worth hanging on to. Gibby’s draft board is a problem. Of his 17 picks, 11 are scheduled to be made in the final three rounds. He does have five of his first six picks, so that’s not bad. But it’s a long, long wait between his 12^th round pick and the next one in the 19^th. I know Mike doesn’t tend to ask for as much as others for his guys, but he may want to aim high this year. He’s well behind the rest.

12. Urban Achievers – Dan Plourde (dangplourde@gmail.com)

Locks:  OF Bryce Harper, 1B Albert Pujols, 2B Ian Kinsler

Options:  SP Yordano Ventura, SP Jose Fernandez, OF Shin Soo Choo, OF Jorge Soler, SP Michael Pineda

Keeper Score: 32 (13^th)

Pick Score: 106 (5^th)

ANALYSIS:  Dan’s keepers have issues. The only guy I am confident in is Harper and that’s entirely because of pedigree and has nothing to do with last year’s 41/14/32/2/.344 in 395 abs. He won’t be 22 until October and has shown plenty to expect a surge. Pujols (89/28/105/1/.324) and Kinsler (100/17/92/15/.307) may be fine, but at 35 and 33, this is when things start to really go south. They had great seasons, but the slip in OBP is usually indicative of an overall decline. They’re good, just not the vintage name brand they once were. Ventura, 24, had a good season but it wasn’t as great as you might realize at 22/159/3.20/1.30. The 3.74 xFIP and 10.3 BB% is concerning. Volatility is expected. Fernandez is a beautiful, beautiful man, but he’s probably coming back midseason. If we were ranking for long-term, the keeper score would go way up with JoFern. Choo (58/13/40/3/.340) was limited due to injury and obviously slowed when he did play. A bounceback is likely. At 23, Soler is intriguing. His 89 abs projected to a 80/36/144/8/.330 line. That won’t happen, but he’s ready. There will, however, be bumps along the way with this free swinger (24.7 K%). Pineda is also compelling, but not really a keeper.  Dan has an, um, interesting board. For someone who ranked so high on picks score, he has one pick in each of the first eight rounds. Things heat up in the 15^th with 4 picks, then two picks in the 16^th, 17^th, and 18^th, then he’s done. That might make it challenging to get high-end talent to supplement an iffy keeper group. Because of that, it is tough to be optimistic at this point. But, Dan has always been an active trader so he could climb up the list easily.

13. Cowhide Joyride – Dave Fox (fox21x@gmail.com)

Locks: C Buster Posey, SP David Price, 2B Jose Altuve, OF Nelson Cruz

Options:  C Devin Mesoraco, 3B Pablo Sandoval, SP Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP Michael Wacha, OF Josh Hamilton, UTIL Ben Zobrist, SP Ian Kennedy, SP Doug Fister

Keeper Score: 38 (8^th)

Pick Score: 68 (13^th)

ANALYSIS:  Dave’s decent group of keepers justifies his middle-of-the-pack grade in this area. He has two very good players that fall just outside the top tier in Posey and Price, two guys coming off fine seasons in Altuve and Cruz, and a bunch of pretty good options for the final two spots. Posey and Price are solid pieces, but not perfect. Certainly, Posey gives Dave a leg up over any other team at the catcher position, but in a league with six keepers the positional differential is only so valuable. Ultimately, 72/22/89/0/.364 – a line replicated by JD Martinez – only benefits you if you can find someone at least average at the other positions. Conversely, Price only misses the top tier because, despite 24/271/3.26/1.08 and even better underlying numbers (26.9 K%, 3.8 BB%, 2.76 xFIP !!!), pitching is ridiculously deep. Kershaw only gets to be a top 10 guy because he’s essentially a perfect pitcher. With that in mind, Altuve was amazing. He’s 24 and posted a .377 OBP, 85 runs, and 56 steals. And Cruz put up a stunning 87/40/108/4/.333. The problem here is you’re banking on replication of a breakout speedster whose OBP came thanks to an unsustainable .360 BABIP, and a power hitter who never had a healthy season until last year and is in a much worse hitters park. While I hardly condone keeping two catchers, this might be a unique situation because of Mesoraco’s upside. Imagine if you added 163 abs (he had 384, Posey had 547) to his 54/25/80/1/.359 line? He won’t get that high but more ABs are coming in his age 27 season and he has ample pedigree. Sandoval (68/16/73/0/.324) is pretty mediocre. Not sure Fenway Park helps enough to make a big difference, but maybe. That’s a good six though, just not great. The others fall something short of keeper material, though Zobrist’s 83/10/52/10/.354 is valuable due to positional flexibility. Wacha and osh Hamilton have talent, but are far away from a top 84. Kennedy was great (19/207/3.63/1.29) but is inconsistent (57.6 QS%, 8.3 BB%). Fister and Ryu are fine but Ks limit upside. The pick situation here is not good, to say the least. He has five picks in the first 11 rounds, including gaps in 8, 9, and 14-17. Then two picks per round for six rounds 18-23. It’s better than Gibby, but Gibby has more pieces to deal. Might be hard to dig out. The core keepers should be fine, but with draft outlook looking limited, he’s going to have to dig deep for some value late.

14. Prestige Worldwide – Lars Borssen (larsborssen@gmail.com)

Locks: 1B/3B Edwin Encarnacion, 3B Evan Longoria

Options:  DH David Ortiz, OF Jayson Werth, SP Jeff Samardzijia, SS Javier Baez, SP Justin Verlander, OF Mark Trumbo, OF Alex Gordon, SP Lance Lynn

Keeper Score: 30 (14^th)

Pick Score: 90 (7^th)

ANALYSIS: There is a price to pay for apathy. Unfortunately, Lars missed out on an opportunity to trade some of the good middle-of-the-road types he had that would’ve helped many teams in the playoffs, like Werth, Shark, Gordon, Lynn, CJ Wilson, Tillman, Granderson, Revere, Morse, etc. It would’ve improved his draft board, which could help acquire a better group of keepers. EE is a top 10 player with a 75/34/98/2/.354 line in 477 abs. Longo had an off year (83/22/91/5/.320) but is just 29 and has plenty of production left, albeit more muted than in the past. Ortiz is great, but for how much longer? Werth may be a worthwhile (pun intended) keeper at 81/16/73/6/.394, but he literally had should surgery the other day and may not be ready for the season. I like Shark (23/202/2.99/1.07) a lot more in the NL and OAK than I do playing for the Southsiders (10.6 HR/FB). The other guys are all concerns too. Baez strikes out 41.5% of the time, Verlander’s production has steadily fallen to the point where Lynn is almost a better option, Trumbo’s injury sapped his the only redeeming featurethat made the dreadful OBP worth dealing with (.707 OPS).  Gordon is OK (87/19/74/12/.351) but is coming off wrist surgery. The talent is not barren, but it’s pretty safely at the bottom of the league unless a couple spots can be improved greatly. Lars only made one trade (Minor for Verlander), which didn’t involve picks, so the pick score represents the baseline of one pick in each round. He can afford to take a shot in this area to improve a couple keeper spots, which would improve this ranking greatly. If he decided to deal EE, I’m sure he could get a lot of quality depth and maybe even get some picks in return. Lars has said he’s cleared his outside fantasy obligations and is committed to being an active manager this year, which I am excited to hear. And though he faces challenges, they’re not insurmountable.