Week 8 Real Rankings

Trade Review - Angry and One Nut

Angry Pirates receives:

SP Derek Holland TEX

RP Edward Mujica STL

RP Glen Perkins MIN

RP Bobby Parnell NYM

One Nut receives:

1B/OF Adrian Gonzalez LAD

SP John Lackey BOS

SP Miguel Gonzalez BAL

I don’t like this one for Kyle for no other reason than he should’ve gotten more than a mediocre bullpen and a starter having a very good year but without a dominant history. I’ve always liked Holland and his control has improved over the years, with a BB/9 dropping from 3.1 in 2011, to 2.7, to 2.3 so far this year. His main problem has been the gopher ball and that was a big problem last year, jumping from 22 in 2011 to 32. He’s only let four out of the park so far, but he’s also started 6 of the 10 games on the road and three of those four homers were at home. His 3.28 xFIP is pretty good, but we can’t expect him to maintain a sub-3.00 era all season, especially with how the ball jumps in Arlington in the summer. He’s good but he’s not this good. Meanwhile, Perkins and Parnell are on crappy clubs that don’t win much and Mujica only recently inherited the role. They’ve all pitched quite well and finally give Kyle some semblance of a bullpen, but at what cost?

AGon is not who he once was, sure. His power numbers are down, but his RBIs are there and his OBP is excellent as always and I fully expect him to finish as a top 20 hitter worthy of keeping. His OF eligibility, as laughable as it is, is an added bonus that cannot be understated. Meanwhile, Lackey is looking like the bulldog that helped the Angels win pennants back in the day. I loved owning this guy as my #3 or #4 a few years ago and think he’s certainly capable of a 3.00/1.20/170k year with QS in 60-65% of his outings. His 3.04 xFIP shows the 2.72 era it’s not a fluke, at least not through his first 40 innings this year. Not saying he’s ace, but he’s not nuttin. Miguel Gonzalez, however, doesn’t impress me. His xFIP of 4.53, 6.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 scream waiver wire material, although he’s pitched against some pretty powerful foes, so he’s got that going for him.

I think Jason wins this one hands down and cements his place as #2 in my power rankings.

Trade Review - One Nut and Urban

One Nut receives:

SP Matt Moore TB

23^rd rounder

Urban receives:

SP Jered Weaver LAA

RP Casey Janssen TOR

19^th rounder

Tough one to call, but it’s pretty even when you consider Weaver’s injury and diminishing returns the past couple seasons (though, still good enough for the top tier). Weaver struck out 233 is 2010, 198 in 2011, 142 in 2012 (three less starts), and had a lousy 4.9 K/9 so far this season (albeit, 11 innings). So something is off there, but he’s also poste stellar era/whips of 2.41/1.01 and 2.81/1.02 the past two seasons and that is valuable. His recent injury isn’t a major concern as it was a fractured bone in his non-throwing arm and not structural. Janssen meanwhile has been steady and quite good, with 10 saves, 9.0 K/9, and a 2.40/0.67. No immediate threats in the bullpen and a mandate to win makes him a likely contributor for the rest of the year.

Moore has been spectacular and better than advertised, which is saying a lot considering the hype surrounding him and very good first full year 8.9 K/9, 3.81/1.35 (although 14 QS in 31 games is quite bad) compared to most. His numbers this year appear to show maturity, with consistent strikeout rates but a 2.21/1.10 with 7 QS in 10 starts. However, Moore’s numbers are somewhat a mirage and reflective of a whole lotta luck. His BABIP is .196 with an xFIP of 4.23.  His walk rate, meanwhile hasn’t changed from last year and is still pretty high at 4.1 BB/9. There will be regression here, undoubtedly, and given his control problems last year, they could be difficult to deal with at times.

I still think Weaver is great, but he falls something short of the elite tier status while Moore could soon be joining the levels of the elite as soon as this season. That said, Moore isn’t there yet and that WHIP will climb. Weaver, though he won’t K as much as he used to, is likely to be more consistent week to week, accumulate more QS, and boast excellent control (2.4 BB/9 career). Meanwhile, Janssen could very well end up a top 10 closer. So, for this year, I like the move for Kyle. That said, at 30, Weaver’s best years are behind him and Moore’s, at the age of 23, are ahead of him and could be truly special. So, in the long run, the win will probably go to Jason.

Trade Review - Montezumas and Angry

Montezuma’s receives:

SP Jake Peavy CHW

Angry Pirates receives:

3B Aramis Ramirez MIL

As straightforward as they come, Kyle had a hitting need, I had a pitching need. I had sent him an offer a few days before it was accepted. The day it was accepted I happened to be playing Kyle and Aramis hit two homers and six rbis. Watching Michael Young man second base for the couple weeks since he traded Beltre was probably enough to make Kyle realize an upgrade was necessary. Neither player comes without injury risk – Peavy due to past history and ARam due to a wonky knee that has kept him out of the lineup at various points during the season. Both were on my team last year and both played up to keeper consideration, with ARam ending up as my final keeper. However, with Youk on the mend and Arenado seemingly sticking with the big club, it was an area I felt I could sacrifice. Kyle has Fister and Zimmermann and some further upstarts in the middle of the rotation like Lackey, Arroyo, and Quintana, so he felt comfortable giving up some pitching. Ironically, I acquired Aramis the previous two seasons around late May after his owner grew frustrated with his typical slow start. This year, he started the season fine (albeit with a stint on the DL) and I traded him.

ARam’s numbers a little down due to injury but he’s posted 85/25/100/.360 campaigns the past two seasons, while Peavy has been the 20^th best starter this year according to the Yahoo player rater, with a 1.04 whip my team is desperate for. Who wins this will depend on who is most healthy and will be there to help in the home stretch.

POWER RANKINGS

 

1. Clayton & King (Russ) – Cumulative Rank (CR): 1st (2.3), Real Rank (RR): 1st (4.6), Standings (STND): 4^th

What went right:  Umm, everything? If his Real Ranking wasn’t impressive enough, the

Cumulative Ranking is 2.3 – he’s averaging nearly second place in every category according to total stats at this point. He’s performing across the board and already has 5 guys with 10 homers. The keepers are acting as the stars they are and his draft picks are remarkably good, highlighted by 12^th rounder Reynolds, 7^th rounder Shelby Miller, 9^th rounder Fowler, and 13^th rounder E. Santana, but early picks Swisher, Mauer, Samardzija and Mo have all also been excellent. And the guys he’s picked up have all performed well also, from Pettibone to Peralta. Just call him Midas. Hard to see this team slowing down.

What went wrong: Revere, James McDonald, and Puig were all swing and misses, but the real issue with Russ’ squad has been matchup luck. Given his statistical output at this point, he should be in first by quite a lot. There’s just not much that has gone wrong for Russ so far this year – even Nolasco is pitching well. He’s only got 25 saves on his roster currently, so that’s a weakness.

Outlook: This is the undisputed best team in the league right now by quite a significant margin, and I expect this will be reflected in the standings soon. This roster has the chance to run away with it, but it will require volatile guys of the past like Santana and Reynolds to keep it up. 

2. One Nut Wonders (Jason) – CR: 7^th (7.6), RR: 6^th (7.2), STND: 5^th

What went right: I loved Rizzo with his first round pick and Jason now has what appears to be a keeper for years to come. Jason has withstood a slew of injuries to major players, including keepers Weaver, Hanley, and Headley, thanks to some solid production from guys like Lorenzo Cain, Duda, and Morse and some solid middle-of-the-rotation draft picks in Cashner, Holland, De La Rosa, and Ogando, who are providing surprisingly steady production.  Ubaldo could be a good, albeit volatile, pickup as well

What went wrong: Well, VMart’s struggles are perplexing and Prado has been barely rosterable at this point. Jason’s long-time binky Utley has just been OK and is now injured, while Dickey hasn’t been able to rediscover last year’s magic.  It’s all about health though as he has productive players who have just been hurt a lot.  Hanley in place of D. Gordon, Utley for Prado, and Weaver (now Moore) joining the now healthy Garza will make a big difference. The talent of this roster is not reflected in the rankings.

Outlook: Jason and Russ have did a great job balancing success last year without sacrificing this year and it’s paying off.  Obviously, I like this team more than the ranking, in large part due to the emergence of his middle rotation guys behind a solid threesome of Moore, Garza and Dickey as well as the injuries he’s withstood. I also think VMart, Dickey, and Prado will come around. This is a good team to look out for.

3. Keepin it Real (Pierce) – CR: 3^rd (5.8), RR: 2^nd (6.0), STND: 1^st

What went right: For a team that sits first in the standings, there are an awful lot of underperformers on the roster: Ellsbury, Gardner, Desmond, Kennedy, Lincecum, Lucroy, Putz, JJ.  But a deeper dive into the overall numbers shows he’s worthy of the ranking. Scherzer, Sale, Anibal (fourth rounder!), and Dempster make up the rest of the entire starting staff at the moment (6 total), but they’re racking up the Ks and keeping him competitive in the cumulative pitching categories. The Ortiz pick was brilliant as he’s come back blazing, leading Pierce’s squad in RBIs with 90 less abs than most regulars. Rios was also an excellent selection and is building off last year’s across-the-board great numbers. He’s got speed up and down the roster and really has no competition in that category. Reed and Soriano have been great closing out games as well.

What went wrong: I honestly hate the way his roster is structured. There is absolutely no reason to have six offensive bench players and only six starting pitchers and maintaining three dead spots (4 DL, 1 minor leaguer). As mentioned previously, there’s a lot of relative underperformance.  Even Pedroia and Wright, who are overall awesome, are lacking power. Kubel was clearly an overdraft in the 8th and injuries to Putz, JJ, Victorino have hurt as he waits for Hart. There’s enough concern here to make this a shaky ranking.

Outlook: With only two transactions and relative silence, one has to wonder if its apathy or strategy. At this point, it’s working. If Hart comes back productive and he can balance his roster a bit better, perhaps we could see a revival for this former champ.

4. Montezuma’s Revenge (Adam) – CR: 4^th (6.5), RR: 5^th (6.7), STND: 9^th

What went right:  Upton got things started with a bang, while Santana, Kinsler, and Pence (traded away for the equally impressive Choo) got off to nice starts as well.  Dunn has come around lately. But the real player pacing this club so far has been 14^th rounder Segura, who is performing like a sure fire keeper. Meanwhile, 13^th rounder Masterson has been my best pitcher, not Hamels. The additions of Peavy and Gallardo should help address what ails this club most. The Valverde trade for a two-round upgrade late in next year’s draft is obviously working out well. The young guys I’ve picked up have all shown nice signs of future

production.

What went wrong: The top pitchers I was counting on either struggled mightily (Niese, Parker, EJax) or got injured (Billingsley, Garcia). My team is worst in both ERA and WHIP, which is uncharacteristic of my past teams. Meanwhile, SB and OBP have been great, but the rest of the cumulative offensive numbers have just been mediocre and poor in the case of RBIs. Hosmer has been a big disappointment, while the team is counting on production from several rookies: Arenado, Fernandez, Gyorko, Gausman, and Segura (not quite a rookie), so the volatility on offense should not be a surprise.

Outlook: Two weeks ago I would never have put myself this high due to the depth of the pitching problems, but I believe that has been largely corrected. I really like my roster at the moment when I consider what it will look like once Youk and Kinsler are back, and dream about a productive and healthy Chris Carpenter. The youngins need to perform like they have the potential to and Upton, Santana, Choo, Dunn and Segura need to be more consistent. There’s hope here.

5. Sexual Napalm (Mike) – CR: 8^th (7.7), RR: 9^th (7.4), STND: 3^rd

What went right: Brandon Phillips has been a surprising source of RBIs, Beltre and Gomez both have continued last year’s production, and Choo and Crawford were both very good before being traded. Willingham has also come around lately. The biggest key for Gay Santa is Matt Harvey, who showed glimpses last season, and Darvish, who was inconsistent last year.  Both are now certifiable aces. Meanwhile, Kyle Kendrick has been a please surprise. Cuddyer has also proven to be one hell of a last round pick. His keepers haven’t been great, but Mike drafted very well.

What went wrong: Mike quickly moved on from Brett Anderson, who may never be healthy. He drafted dArnaud and Bauer and moved along from them as well. He continues to cling to Bundy, who is seems unlikely to see the majors until later this season, if at all.  Freeman hasn’t been the type of cornerstone stud Mike expected and the middle relievers he’s holding on to don’t appear worthy of roster spots -- CMartinez and Pestano may very well have closer stuff, but Perez and Mujica have been fine. With that, there’s also only one closer on the roster and depth issues behind Darvish and Harvey.

Outlook: Mike has played much of the season with a number of unproductive spots in order to hold on to Profar, Tex, Beachy, Bundy, and others, so the fact that he’s sitting pretty in third in the standings is promising for Mike. If Tex, Grandal, and Beachy come back even close to what they were when they left, Mike will be a contender for a top seed in the playoffs. Despite his seemingly unorthodox approach at times, it’s been quite the remarkable turnaround for this team given what Mike inherited nine months ago. 

6. Ring of Fire (Dagan) – CR: 6^th (7.3), RR: 7^th (7.3), STND: 7^th

What went right: Napoli start the season on fire, Votto’s OBP is still near .500 and

Goldschmidt established himself as one of the top fantasy players in the game. Latos has performed like a stud and Kuroda keeps holding off father time to perform like an ace for the cost of a middle rounder. The backend of the staff has been solid with a number of shrewd pickups, albeit not great upside. First rounder Austin Jackson was doing fine before falling to injuries. With eight guys over seven homers, there’s plenty of power there.  15^th rounder Chris Carter seems like he belongs and has been a valuable late draft pick.

What went wrong: Underperforming keepers have really kept Ring from being in the top tier. Votto’s power and RBIs leave something to be desired, Jay Bruce started very slow but has come on lately, while Dagan is still waiting for Matt Kemp to be the guy he enjoyed two years ago. Zobrist’s production has been steady but three homers and three steals isn’t the type of stats we’ve become accustomed to. While Latos and Kuroda have been great, he’s settled on a bunch of middle of the road types behind them in Vargas, Tillman, Leake and Colon, who cannot be expected to be as reliable as they’ve been. Volatility is coming. The bullpen of Betancourt/Brothers and Holland is shallow and unremarkable. Dagan gave up on 14^th rounder Kelly Johnson too early.

Outlook:  With identical averages of 7.3 in both rankings and being 6^th in CR, 7^th in RR, and 7^th in the standings, it’s pretty clear Dagan is squarely above the middle of the pack and below the top tier at his point. A healthy and productive Middlebrooks, Reddick, and Dan Hudson could go a long way to taking this team to the next level.

7. Anal Hershiser (Andrew) – CR: 2^nd (5.7), RR: 4^th (6.0), STND: 6^th

What went right: Pitching was a strong point heading into the season and it still is, highlighted but the team’s best pitcher -- no, not Strasburger, Verlander, or MadBum, but 10^th rounder Hisashi Iwakuma, who is incredibly a Cy Young contender at this point. Meanwhile, Miley, Wandy and Pettite have all filled in well behind the stars to make one of the top pitching staffs in the league.  The offseason deal for Fielder looks like it was just what the team needed as there’s a lack of power elsewhere. Donaldson, McLouth, and Jim Henderson have all been excellent wire pickups.

What went wrong: As good as they’ve been, Stras and Verlander haven’t approached their vintage form. First rounder Aaron Hill has been injured. Melky has stunk, Eaton is still hurt, Yady is something less than his 2012 self, and if you wait five more minutes, Rodney will probably blow another save. At this point, neither Yadier nor Hill have proven worthy of the top six overall picks they were. Andrew clearly gave up on Gyorko, Ruggiano, and Hardy too soon.

Outlook: All the numbers show Andrew is doing pretty well, but as good as he is in the average rankings and standings, there’s an imbalance here that could be exposed at some point. I think the team needs a power upgrade to be considered for the top tier.

8. Donkey Punchers (Chris) – CR: 5^th (7.2), RR: 3^rd (6.4), STND: 2^nd

What went right: Simple, pitching. Though keepers Cain and Gio have been bad and only pretty good, respectively, everyone else has been superb, even McCarthy is coming around. Lynn, Cobb, Shields, Wilson, Cueto, and keeper Wainright have all been great to excellent. And no one is touching his relievers (besides maybe Dave), which have an incredible 53 saves between the four of them -- almost unnecessarily dominant.  The pitching is reflective of how great his draft board was going into the year and his selections were on point.

What went wrong: Simple, hitting. Early picks Asdrubal, Konerko, and P. Alvarez have all been awful. It’s time to realize Cabrera’s 2011 numbers are clearly an outlier and he’s just simply not worthy of a high pick (drafted in 2^nd round this year). Meanwhile, Chris’ keeper hitters have had a tough go of it, with the well-documented lackluster result from Hamilton, middle-of-the-road production from Holliday and a tough start for Kipnis, who has come on lately.  Jesus Montero was an obvious whiff and Belt hasn’t been the mainstay I’m sure Chris envisioned. The names still look OK, it’s the numbers next to them that are reason for concern. As great as his pitching selection were, his offensive picks leave much to be desired.

Outlook: Tough call here and Chris will have a tough call going forward. Do you maintain a staff that could roll people over throughout the year and hope for the best for the offense? Or take advantage one of those chips like Shields and the universal desperation for quality starters and try to add some offensive firepower? I have a hard time putting him higher given that many of his struggling offensive players showed glimpses of problems in 2013 and the overall lack of balance.

9. Urban Achievers (Dan) – CR: 13^th (9.5), RR: 13^th  (8.2), STND: 8^th 

What went right: Harper and Machado are beasts and building blocks for Dan to build around, while 14^th rounder Starling Marte has played up to keeper consideration. Frazier got off to a nice start and Kelly Johnson could end up being a key pickup. Moore has been stellar and helped Dan acquire another ace and top notch closer in Weaver/Janssen. Buchholz may end up being the pick of the draft as he’s not only been productive in the rate and QS departments, but he’s also K’ing people in bunches. H. Bailey was another nice pick and recent wire pickup Wheeler may ultimately contribute.

What went wrong: Ike. Just awful. I was pretty confident he would produce as well, so much so that I considered him with my top pick. If you look at 2012 stats, he was around this current level of production at this point last year and ended up finishing the year on a tear. But it’s really hard to keep putting that out there on a regular basis. Meanwhile, BJ has been just as bad. Neither has double digit RBIs yet despite regular playing time, and both have OBPs below .240 -- that’s a really bad batting average, nevermind OBP. Hard to overcome that.  Meanwhile, Espinosa, Hellickson, Simmons, Harrison and Motte were all high picks and have struggled for a variety of reasons. And he missed on Fiers, Jeter, Ackley and Nova late.

Outlook: There’s enough bright spots that I have to give Dan a fighting chance to overcome what rankings suggest will be future regression. It’ll be a matter of how he fills in around the surprises.  He’s in good shape in the standings despite the challenges. Seems like a potential playoff team to me.

10. Angry Pirates (Kyle) – CR: 9^th (7.9), RR: 8^th (7.4), STD: 13^th

What went right:  McCutchen has been as advertised while Rosario and Cespedes have shown big power. Jordan Zimmerman is just an automatic QS and has an incredible 1.71/0.87 line, despite the low K number. Fister has also pitched well and 13^th rounder Quintana, last rounder Arroyo, and wire pickup Lackey made it possible to deal Peavy for some offensive help in Aramis. Craig and LaRoche have picked it up as of late and Seager and Morales have contributed as well.  He’s got a pretty good balance of names that just need to produce at their capabilities.

What went wrong: Its all about the keepers -- the struggles of Starlin, health of Cespedes, slow start by Craig, and lack of power from AGon have all really hurt Kyle’s promising initial roster. Meanwhile, injuries to Hanrahan, Ludwick, and Viciedo didn’t help his cause. Dealing for Aramis was a good move because Michael Young is barely rosterable at this point. Adding Crawford ultimately hurt because he lost Beltre, but there’s very little speed outside of Crawford and Cutch, so its understandable.

Outlook: It’s hard to look at this team, which has been largely healthy, and look at it as anything more than middle of the pack at this point. There’s potential for much more, but Cespedes and Castro need to improve. An iffy backend of the rotation (Hammel, M. Gonzalez, Tepesch, Harrell, Diamond) has been a headwind that doesn’t have much upside.

11. GRUMPY MUNCHKINS (Brandon) – CR: 14^th (10.6), RR: 14^th (9.6), STND: 10th

What went right: Despite his rankings status, Brandon still has the top player in the league in Miguel Cabrera. He’s just an absolute monster. Moreland was quite the pick with double digit homers already. And Pujols, while not vintage Pujols, is putting up decent counting stats. He also found Guthrie on the wire and drafted Patrick Corbin, who is probably the pick of the year at this point, in the 16^th round. Burnett and Cahill have played like legit #2 and #3 starters. Grabbing McCann in the 17^th may ultimately prove to be a stroke of genius.

What went wrong: With the hole he dug himself into with the trades last year, two things needed to happen for Brandon to remain in the top tier: his keepers had to play like keepers and he needed to nail his early picks. Neither happened and he’s struggling. I have a real problem with having four dead spots, especially if it includes two guys who haven’t pitched and are coming off arm surgery and a rookie who hasn’t been discussed for a promotion. By doing so, he’s missed out on some opportunities that have come across the wire. Heyward had appendicitis, Stanton was ineffective and then hurt, Reyes is hurt, and Lawrie just hasn’t been that good. Meanwhile his early picks included Morrow, Haren, Weeks, and Ethier – all underperforming veterans. You can have the biggest stars (Cabrera) and the best pick (Corbin), but if you don’t have guys around them, you’re screwed.

Outlook: The usually outspoken Brandon has been something less than his former self this year, with good reason I suppose. It appears as though his strategy was to tread water initially and draft injured guys with the hope of them coming back effective and squeaking in to the playoffs. Not sure if that’s the best strategy, but obviously I think this team is more than it has become.

12. Moose is Loose (Brian) – CR: 9^th (7.9), RR: 12^th (7.7), STND: 14^th

What went right: Chris Davis. Whoa. The guy is a beast. Regression is coming, but he’s performing like an obvious keeper. 13^th rounder Everth Cabrera has been a revelation of sorts as well -- after a tough start to 2012, he’s been a force to be reckoned with on the base paths since, and he’s a good OBP guy too. Beltran has been healthy and productive, while Cliff Lee, Medlen, and Maholm have been very productive. Slowey was a good pickup and Greinke has been good when healthy. And, of course, there’s Tulo.

What went wrong: Grienke’s injury hurt obviously, but the lack of production from Freese and Montero has been most troubling given the lack of great replacements (currently Eric Chavez and Yan Gomes). Axford was a wasted early pick, while Marcum hasn’t been much better and Rasmus, Rosenthal, and Pierz were all dropped. He gave up too soon on Vargas, who has turned things around. Butler has been fine but needs to be better.

Outlook: There’s a lot to like, but he needs Freese and M. Montero to be who they were last year for the offense, which lacks massive firepower, to keep the team in matchups. Meanwhile, having only seven pitchers without any high K guys makes it hard to compete in the cumulative stat categories. He’s in the basement in the standings, but this is a correctable situation.

13. Cowhide Joyride (Dave) – CR: 12^th (9.1), RR: 10^th (7.5), STND: 13^th

What went right: 17^th rounder Vernon Wells could end up being the pick of the year, while 13^th rounder Matt Carpenter has been a steady force in runs and OBP.  Lester and Ryu proved worthy of being one of the limited early picks Dave had. Travis Wood was an early pickup who has been stellar with 9 QS. Dave also has a stellar bullpen with Grilli joining keepers Chapman and Kimbrel. Last rounder Francisco Liriano may end up being a tremendous find.

What went wrong: A lot. Its too bad because I thought he drafted well, but outside of Posey, his keepers haven’t been terribly productive. Chapman’s move to the bullpen limited his upside and relegated two of his keepers (Kimbrel, the other) to only being part of a dominant bullpen and nothing more.  Ryan Zimmerman has been frustrating, Andrus has been runs and steals and nothing else, and Price stunk and then got injured.  Meanwhile, “early” picks Howard and Teheran have just been OK.  That leaves a bunch of late rounders who have failed to pickup the slack. Hunter, N. Walker, Beckett, and Ichiro are all veterans you’d expect more out of, while Hanson has been hurt.

Outlook: Tough to give Dave a chance at the playoffs until some of these guys start producing the way they’re supposed to. Really, it’ll come down to Zimm, Price, Hanson, Beckett, Hunter, and Howard. It’s tough to look at those guys and say with confidence that things will turn around.

14. Prestige Worldwide (Lars) – CR: 11^th (8.4), RR: 11^th  (7.7), STND: 9^th

What went right: Lars has found some nice middle rotations guys in Minor, Griffin and Milone, while Feldman and Kazmir have had their moments.  Top picks Gordon and Cruz have been solid contributors, Buck was a smart early pickup that paid off (though his regression has began), and he’s gotten nice output from keepers CC, EE, Longo, and Trumbo. Nava has been very good, but he hasn’t been on Lars’ roster for very long.

What went wrong:  Halladay was a bad trade. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but there were questions in the preseason about his velocity but Lars still dealt 22 rounds of upgrade for CC and Doc. There isn’t much of a bullpen here with three potential closers (Axford, Marmol, Peralta) and one iffy (Frieri). Granderson’s latest injury is obviously a big disappointment, but really the biggest problem has been Lars’ draft: Rollins, Moose, Werth, Estrada, Vogelsong, S. Perez, Rutledge, Porcello were all among the first 100 choices in the draft. It looks like the Commish squandered an opportunity there.

Outlook: If Grandy is healthy and Rollins is productive, his offense should be fine. But he could really use a boost in the pitching department. It’s tough to look at Lars’ staff and see it being championship level – unless Doc comes back as his old self. By then, it might be too late.

Real Rankings - Week 7

Trade Review - Montezumas and S. Napalm

Montezumas receives:
OF Shin Soo Choo CIN
SP Yovani Gallardo MIL
19th rounder

Napalm receives:
OF Hunter Pence SF
SP Jarrod Parker OAK
15th rounder

Ahhh, a nice controvercy. The trading season has officially started.

On the surface, Gallardo was a keeper and Choo was a first rounder, while Pence and Parkers were fifth rounders. Given the relatively minor pick upgrade, it looks like I did well. But below the surface is where it evens out a bit. Lets start with Pence/Choo. Both have been outstanding and rank among the top 30 players overall. The really unique thing about Pence is he's stolen seven bases and is on track for a 30/30 year. His history doesn't show that is likely (his high in 18 three years ago and he's never hit more than 25 dingers), but as a perennial 100 rbi guy, even a 25/20 season would be valuablee no matter what OBP he posts. While he rarely takes a night off, which is nice when managing a roster, his only middle-of-the-road numbers take a bit of a hit on a per-game basis. Regardless, he never should've last as long as he did in the draft and could be on his way to a career year in his age 30 season.

A unique aspect of the two offensive players is both Pence and Choo are free agents at the end of the year. While some believe that has little impact on the overall numbers, there have certainly been cases where it has. So far this season it looks like both are motivated. The nice thing about Choo is that, though he's unspectacular in most categories, he's a very capable contributor in all five, highlighted by a stellar OBP. Cincinnati is a nice lineup and park to be in, especially during the summer, so we could see Choo, also 30, post career numbers.

If you call those two a relative wash, you have to get down to the pitching and I honestly don't know what to expect. I do know I wanted -- in my exceptionally shitty position in all pitching categories -- to go with the track record of production. I picked up Parker last year and ultimately traded him away (ironically, to Troy) for Tim Hudson, but he was exceptional last year and very consistent with a high QS% (69.0%) and solid K rates. Mixed with a tremendous pedigree and large ballpark, I liked him enough to make him my #3 coming into the season. But make no mistake about it, he's sucked balls. He seemed to have lost his control and was being threatened with demotion at one point. His last few starts have been better, not great, but better. Gallardo meanwhile has also stunk, but in a most consistent way and with less Ks. While Parker's velocity has been the same, Gallardo seems to have lost something on the heater, which is a concern. He has actually been the worse pitcher the last two week. Still, 200 ks is nothing to sniff at and he's consistently there with a manageable 3.60 era and 1.30 whip, along with a bunch of QS (75.8% in 2013). I still like Parker and expect him to rebound, but I also think Gallardo will be the better pitcher this year. He's traditionally a slow starter and looking at game logs from 2012, his K numbers weren't great and in mid may his ERA was worse than it is now, at 5.04. He brought that down to 3.66 by season-end. Here's hoping he does the same.

In terms of the pick swap, the 15th round yielded a high of Buchholz and Fowler and lows of Ichiro and Porcello, while the 19th round produced E. Santana and Pettite but also gave us Buehrle and Ackley. Obviously, there's a difference in the high-level talent there, but there's some pretty hefty flops in both rounds as well. A good upgrade there for Mike.

As is typical, I'm not going to make a call on who won my own trade. I'd never make a trade I didn't think I won. As I've offered in the past, if you feel like taking over the reviews when it involves one of my trades, I'd love to hear perspective outside of my own. They don't have to be of any particular length. Let me know if you're interested.

Trade Review - Angry and S. Napalm

Napalm receives:
3B Adrian Beltre, TEX
C JP Arencebia, TOR
SP Felix Doubront, BOS

Angry receives:
OF Carl Crawford LAD
SP Brett Anderson OAK

This is a good example of a first real trade for the league (Valverde for a pick barely counts) as it shows two owners coming to terms with the value they have based on in-season results. Clearly, Beltre is the best piece here as he has continued to rake ever since leaving Seattle. You have to wonder if he didn't spend that time out west if we'd be talking about a hall of famer some day. Could still, I suppose. Anyhow, Kyle obviously thought him expendable given Seager's nice start. However, I question his faith in Michael Young, whose eligibility at all infield spots outside of SS is nice, but other than his OBP, he's essentially worthless. Now he's a full time starter. In terms of overall value, I would've rather seen Kyle keep Beltre at 3B and Seager at 2B and then start Morales/Laroche/Craig/AGon at 1B and AGon/Craig in the OF with Cespedes and McCutchen -- rather than go out and add Crawford. But I also see his roster has Cutch with 7 steals, Rosario with 3 and not much else. I think it's clear Crawford is back to being his old productive self and was obviously a great pick for Mike that eventually yielded him great value. Meanwhile, Doubront and Arencebia are good at two things and, essentially, two things only: Ks and HRs, the sexiest of all stats. The problem is owning them comes at the detriment of your rates. But as long as there's other pieces that can hedge that issue a bit, they can be very effective players. Not a bad shot to take for Mike, who is remarkably sitting high in the standings despite having as many as six players DL/NA'd.

While Beltre was a great add, Mike obviously came to terms quickly with the reality of Brett Anderson. It's unfortunate. I like him a lot too but the guy has basically never been healthy. He was tantilizingly good at the end of last year, so much so that Mike gave up 19 rounds to acquire Anderson in the offseason and keep him over a variety of other options. Obviously he did not enough value there. Still, its a nice shot for Kyle whose got a deep staff of rater controllers and is difficult to matchup against in Ks and QSs.

Can't choose a winner here until we get some resolution on Anderson, but as of now I'd rather have Beltre than Crawford. Not crazy about the rest of the parts here, but they will ultimately decide who won this one.

Real Rankings - Week 6

Nothing to say here other than to comment on some of the immense injustices here. This week perhaps was the greatest example, with Russ actually losing a matchup to Chris 4-5-1 despite an incredible average of 3.3, which tops the previous high for any single week (Russ and myself, 3.5 both in week 1). He would've demolished just about every other team, but happened to run up against the second highest real ranking team for the week with Chris' remarkable 1.2 average in the pitching categories. Russ also further distanced himself in the real rankings, sitting atop the league with a full point higher than any other team. Meanwhile, he's clinging to a playoff spot in seventh.

With that said, Dan's fortunes continued as he managed the same number of wins as Russ (4) despite being at the complete opposite end of the weekly rankings (last). He's currently ranked 13th overall but sits 5th in the standings.

In this lies the innate flaw of the head-to-head scoring system. Sure, it's more exciting than rotisserie, but it certainly isn't always reflective of the best team. While this will certainly straighten itself out in the actual standings over the course of the season, it shows how much of a crapshoot the playoffs can be, lending credence to awarding prowess in other measurements.

Real Rankings - Week 5

Five weeks in and we're 24% of the way through the season. What do you think of your team at this point? This is where perception starts to become reality. Those guys who started the season struggling just haven't stopped. Do you cut them and risk them turning into Alex Rios last yar? What about the guys who are doing well? Sell high? You could prove to be brilliant and be selling a guy like Trumbo last year at just the right time, or you could be giving away Mike Trout. Decisions, decisions.

The beginning of May tends to be where we see the first trade action starting. Just a reminder, you cannot deal for any picks in rounds 7-13 until August. Pretty sure no one is giving up at this point, but just a reminder of the new rule.

Editorial comment based on recent trade offers: an initial offer is a starting point. Counter and aim high. Perhaps you'll meet in the middle. Perhaps not. Its always OK to say its a nonstarter, but some feedback is helpful.

Also, its been five weeks. Its time to forget where you drafted them and deal based on who they are. That's not to say someone like Jurickson Profar doesn't have value or that your conviction in any young player is worthless, but just because, say, Ryan Vogelsong was drafted a lot earlier than Patrick Corbin -- that really has no bearing on value at this point.

With five weeks under our belt, its reasonable to draw some conclusions based on available data. A few comments regarding the Real Rankings:

- Nice bounceback by Casten this week according to the Real Rankings, but he only garnered six wins and still remains at the bottom of both the rankings and standings, though Lars and Dave are also low in both real and actual standings. Two members of this threesome could have been predicted given Dave and Brandon's pitiful draft status, but certainly I would've never thought Lars and his three first rounders would be this low.

- Meanwhile, the top team in the standings, Pierce, is one of the few top teams who have proven they should be where they are in the standings. His roster is full of nice surprises, productive starters, and steals from the draft. He's benefited from Ortiz coming back on fire and stands to benefit upon Corey Hart's eventual emergence, and perhaps even uber prospect Oscar Tavarez. He and Russ would be duking it out for first and second on my power rankings if I had them.

- The most unlucky to this point can be seen by looking in the DIF column in the overall rankings, as it shows the difference between the Real Rankings and Actual Standings. Russ' team is barely clinging to a playoff spot in actuality, but he has clearly been the most balanced and consistent team so far this year. Brian and Kyle also find themselves buried in the standings, but overall in pretty good shape, albeit unlucky. Meanwhile, I am out of the playoffs according to the standings, but among the tops in the Real Rankings.

- Conversely, it seems Gibby and Chris are pretty fortunate to be in the top 3 in the standings. And Casten and Jason are lucky to not be further down than where they are, but no one has gotten more lucky than Dan, whose best week was a 6.7 average ranking (Russ' worst week is 6.8), but manages to sit eight spots higher in the actual standings than the rankings.

- The most inconsistent teams have been me (5.0 variability) with a range of 3.5 to 10.2, Chris (4.9), and Casten, (4.0). Dan has been most consistent (0.3), ranging between 6.7 and 8.2.

- Not sure the line chart is helping you conclude much. I would recommend finding your color and going from there. You can see general trajectory in terms of performance week-to-week. An interesting observation is that of the black (Russ) and pink (Brandon) lines, with Russ peaking at week 2 and dropping since while Brandon plummeted to the lowest of any team in week 2 and has shot upward since. Something to monitor perhaps.