Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Final Real Rankings


Congratulations to all on a very successful and exciting regular season. It was compelling to the very end, with last year's champion falling to the hottest team in the league, leaving open a spot for the upstart Gay Santa to slip in - despite selling off his pieces before the deadline. It all came down to two games. Think about the number of times you could have picked up that extra guy to win or tie a category, or the time you took the risk and it bit you in the ass -- I am sure any of us could find at least two games in there that would've made the difference for Jason. This is the hell Jason gets to live in for a little while. He's a ferocious competitor, so I'm sure its eating him up. I would hope so. Perhaps worse of all for Jason, is he was one of the hottest teams in the league the past three weeks, according to the Real Rankings, with the second highest AVG of any team - right behind the guy he lost to in Week 21.

In fact, Jason had the third highest Real Ranking of any team in Week 21. If he had played just about any other team, he'd be in the playoffs. Conversely, in what seemed like it should be a route given past performance this season, Mike beat Russ 6-4 despite only the 11th highest Real Ranking - one spot above the exulted Overrated, who limps into the playoffs in a seemingly even playing field. The two will rematch in the first round.

Moose had a formidable end to the regular season and is easily the hottest team in the playoffs. While Moose was #1 overall the past three weeks among all teams, Jason was #2 and - surprise - Casten was #3. 

Below is the real rankings for playoff teams over the last three weeks:
1. Moose (4.7)
2. Keepin (6.2)
3. Montzumas (6.3)
4. Ring (6.7)
5. Overrated (7.0)
6. Anal (7.4)
7. Donkey (8.2)
8. S. Napalm (8.7)

All in all, it looks like its anyone's game. Everyone knows it just takes a little luck. We'll see who comes out on top in 2013.

Monday, August 26, 2013

Week 20 Real Rankings





In the first week post-trade deadline, Jason finds his way to the top with Brian and Russ. The unlikely top tier teams were Lars and Brandon. The bottom table shows the averages over the last three weeks. The most notable observations is Brian's hot squad and the consistency of the top five teams. Interesting that the team missing from this group is Chris, whose all the way at the bottom with the dumpers. Meanwhile, the resurgent Munchkins have the chance to pull themselves out of the bottom with some great offensive performances to end the season.

Week 19 Real Rankings


Sunday, August 18, 2013

Open Trading Reviews - Part 4


S. Napalm receives:
OF Junior Lake CHC
13th rounder
15th rounder

Overrated receives:
SP Brandon Beachy ATL
RP Jonathan Papelbon PHI
18th rounder
18th rounder

Pretty good haul for Russ, but you have to wonder if this could end up ultimately hurting him. Pap has been awful and Beachy, while the name is bright and shiny, is coming off TJS and has been just OK, picking up 4-6 ks per inning and getting shelled his first time out. Perhaps he’ll get hot again and prove to be a valuable addition as he was last year, but it’s a tough call. Rarely do guys regain their form immediately after returning. This is why I stopped drafting guys returning from TJS midseason. They typically take up a valuable roster spot for a long time, don’t return on schedule, don’t have their old form, and generally aren’t viewed as keepers. But they do eventually recover fully and Beachy looks like he’ll be no different, perhaps recovering immediately. The last three outings have been good, albeit against PHI twice and MIA. He’s only let up four walks, so that’s promising. For Mike, eight rounds is a decent haul, especially since I’m sure people weren’t knocking down the door for Paps. As of Sunday morning, he will be done drafting in the 18th, but that’s likely to change before the 2014 draft. A shame he didn’t go for it because his team was good enough, but he should be firing on all cylinders next season.


Ring receives:
OF Hunter Pence SF
SP Alex Wood ATL
19th rounder
20th rounder

S. Napalm receives:
SP Jason Vargas LAA
SP Edwin Jackson CHC
13th rounder
18th rounder

This one stung a bit since I had been working on a deal for Pence for a couple days and thought we had settled on three rounds. Looks like Dagan beat me to the punch with a much bigger offer, so I can’t blame Mike for taking it. I wasn’t going to give up that much, mainly because the dropoff from Pence to Aoki wasn’t tremendous. But the trade makes sense for Dagan as he’s kept his draft board largely intact (missing 10, 13, 15s) and got back some nice value. Pence gives Dagan a legitimate base stealer, whch is odd to say, but the results are there (he’s only been caught once). The problem is he hasn’t hit a homer in a month. Last year he fell off badly toward the end, so there’s a risk in that being repeated. Wood has been quite impressive since coming up with 57/2.61/1.03/4 in 51 ip, but he’s a risk as well since he is a rookie with a deceptive delivery. Overall, Dagan’s staff has a lot of nice numbers for the year, but some of the names make me wonder if they can keep this up. Colon was dreadful the last couple times out and is now on the DL, meanwhile Latos is the only real K artist here. Still, there’s plenty of talent on this squad for Dagan to make another run at it. Meanwhile, Mike obviously got more than he would’ve gotten if I accepted the deal he sent earlier that morning, so good for him. Perhaps bad for me. We shall see.

Moose receives:
SP Julio Teheran ATL
SS Elvis Andrus TEX
14th rounder
15th rounder

Cowhide receives:
3B David Freese STL
RP LaTroy Hawkins NYM
9th rounder
11th rounder

I’m surprised Dave was willing to deal these two, but I think it’s a good move. Teheran is a great young pitcher obviously, but you generally want pitcher keepers to be surefire studs not guys with one good year under their belt. And it has been good, just not surefire keeper good. Next year, he could reach a new stratosphere given his ample pedigree or he could struggle. It’s not a bad idea to cash in now. Meanwhile, I’ve long said Andrus isn’t much of a keeper. He hurts three categories and is good (not great) in two. Just a big name. He’s still young, but the power will never be there. That said, it’s a great piece to add to Moose’s offense as he previously only have Altuve as a legit stealer. He’s got a pretty great offense with the resurgent Soriano, while Teheran adds talent to what seemed like a lot of lucky guys in the rotation. Good use of the two high picks, as he only had to give up a total of nine rounds – a far cry from the 18 rounds I gave up for Liriano/Kimbrel, which looks like a drastic overpayment at this point. Anyhow, I like the move for Dave. He’s got a great draft board (11 picks in the first five rounds) and a firm base of keepers in Posey, Hosmer, Jennings, and Price. Moving on from Andrus and closers elevates this group already. Also, the advent of the bevy of offseason trades will make it really easy for him to find two guys to join them, likely better keepers that cost less than he received in the trade.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Restricted Picks Remaining

Available restricted picks to trade:

Montezuma's Revenge - 0 (Liriano/Kimbrel)
One Nut Wonders - 0 (Jensen/Chapman, Buchholz)
Moose is Loose - 0 (Teheran,/Andrus)
Ring of Fire - 0 (Pence/Wood, Zimm/Ryu)
Donkey Punchers - 1 (Bailey/Wieters/Carp)
Overrated - 1 (Beachy/Pap)
Prestige - 2
Keepin it Real  - 2
Grumpy Munchkins - 2
Cowhide - 2
Anal Hershieser - 2
Urban Achievers - 2
Angry Pirates - 2
Sexual Napalm - 2



Friday, August 16, 2013

Open Trading - Reviews Part 3



Moose receives:
SP Jhoulys Chacin COL
RP Danny Farquhar SEA
19th rounder

Urban receives:
RP Josh fields HOU
SP Jason Marquis SD
14th rounder

Nice move by Brian here as Chacin continues to be one of the more underrated pitchers this year. Drafted originally by someone obviously brilliant, he had a brief rough patch and a DL stint, but since then has been a machine, having let up 3 er or less in every start since the Fourth of July. That start was  5 2/3 and 4 er against the dodgers. Other than that start, he has a QS in 11 of his last 12 starts spanning back since mid June. He struck out 9 guys once this seazson. Other than that though, he’s been in the 2-6 per game range, which is nothing to write home about and why he’s not considered more of an asset, but his 3.18/1.19 is excellent and stable and precisely what Brian needs. He’s opted for a fourth closer in Lord Farquhar rather than keep an offensive bench spot. We’ll see if that is a good strategy or not. The rotation lacks real K artists outside of Lee (Grienke is only has a 7.1 K/9), so this may be necessary to compete with some of the big K teams.

Dan, meanwhile, has done a nice job dealing off assets. He doesn’t have the early picks Dave does (just an extra second rounder), but right now he’s scheduled to be done drafting first – in the 18th round, with a remarkable 11 picks in six rounds (13-18). Mixed with a nice group of young keepers in Machado, Harper, Profar, Marte, D. Brown, and Cain, he could be a force to be reckoned with next year. This year, though, he’s in contention for the worst overall record and the current makeup of the roster has Russ and Chris salivating heading into the last two weeks.

Keepin receives:
SP Bruce Chen KC
16th rounder

Urban receives:
SP Josh Johnson
15th rounder

Do I really have to write a review for trade where the key cog being dealt was Bruce Chen? Ok, fine. Actually, he’s been stunningly good over the past month with an incredible 25/1.10(that’s the ERA, not the WHIP)/0.73/5 qs. He’s had QS in all six outing since joining the rotation, letting up only 4 er in that span, including against teams like CLE, BAL, and BOS. In fact, he’s the 8th best starter in the league over the past 30 days. I have to expect this will go away soon, but its not the first time in the last few years that Chen has been useful for long stretches. That’s why KC has kept him around so long. This trade also caps off what has been a horrific year for the 30th overall selection in March’s draft, Josh Johnson. Hard to imagine him as anything more than a risky flier with a flashy name going forward. Pierce did well to get rid of him and get someone useful for a meager round, while Dan continues to benefit from recycling waiver wire pickups.

Monday, August 12, 2013

Week 18 Real Rankings


  
 
An observation worth noting: If you look in the overall real rankings, three columns over, you get the difference between the actual standings and the real rankings. This has fluctuated significantly over the course of the year and steadied as more data has accumulated. It is very interesting that every team is within 1 spot of their space in the standings. While the "real ranking" was intended to strip away the matchup luck factor, this shows that in the end we all get lucky and unlucky at various points of the season. Like last week, I was very lucky to be playing Lars.

A couple of intriguing matchups this week with Chris going against Russ with the top spot potentially on the line. Meanwhile, Jason and I are playing with him 1.5 games behind me for the final playoff spot. Three games separate Brian at 5th and Jason at 9th, so much fluctuation could occur.

One week left until the trade deadline and three weeks left in the season - looks like there will be intrigue until the very end this year.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Open Trading - Reviews Part 2



 Moose receives:
SP Jeremy Hellickson TB
24th rounder

S. Napalm receives:
SS Andrelton Simmons ATL
17th rounder

While Moose’s offense is powerful and dynamic, his rotation has a throw-a-bunch-of-stuff-against-the-wall feel about it, namely because the list of guys who has produced more than a single season of upper echelon returns is limited to Grienke and Lee.  In that sense, Hellboy is a nice addition because he has the ability to be a good pitcher. However, I believe his 4.77 era is more of a reversion to the mean representative of who is than his 2.95 or 3.10 of the previous two years. Never a big K guy, this is a little more than I’d want to give up for him, but not a bad deal by any means. Mike continues to add midround picks that should help him be a force in 2014.
--------------------------


Urban receives:
SP Kyle Kendrick
17th rounder

S. Napalm receives:
SP Zach Wheeler
19th rounder

An odd trade in that Mike is supposedly selling, but decided to try to grab a young guy with big upside in Wheeler for a couple rounds. The problem is that I doubt Wheeler does enough to prove he should be among the top 84 players (ie, a keeper) at the outset of 2014. So, not a bad deal for Dan as the likely innings cap would’ve made it difficult to sell Wheeler to a contender for anything more. And on a side note, Kendrick was one of the best pickups of the year in the first half but has fallen off sharply. Still, served a purpose for Gay Santa.

--------------------------

Cowhide receives:
3B Alex Rodriguez NYY
SP Ubaldo Jimenez CLE
10th rounder

One Nut receives:
RP Kenley Jansen LAD
RP Aroldis Chapman CIN
21st rounder

All of the sudden Jason has the most high octane bullpen in the league, teaming with Street and Cishek. These are two of the top five closers in the league so it’s a tremendous boon for Jason, whose options were sort of mediocre prior.  There was a strong argument for Dave staying in this thing until the end, but he committed fully to 2014 and now has a very nice draftboard with ten picks in the first six rounds, including 3 in the 10th. The restrictions imposed will likely make it impossible for teams like Chris in 2013 and Casten in 2012 to dominate the draft the way they did, but Dave is certainly the house leader for best draft board so far. Right now, he only has two picks after round 15. In terms of overall value, I think Jason got away with one here in that I think these two should have yielded him two picks. But the market had closers available, so its not inconceivable that 11 rounds is the right market value. One sad outcome of this is you know Jason will be trying to position these two as keepers for 2014 and his offers will reflect that.  With Dave committed to not keeping closers, perhaps we’ll finally move on from that next year.
--------------------------

Cowhide receives:
SS Jose Iglesias DET
SP Dan Straily OAK
15th rounder
15th rounder

Anal receives:
RP Koji Uehara BOS
SP Felix Doubront BOS
18th rounder
19th roudner

Sort of under the radar, but  a high quality move for Andrew. Koji isn’t a big K guy, but he’s been one of the best closers in the league over the past month with 5 saves no earned runs and a 0.43 whip.  Doubront, meanwhile, has been equally impressive with 22 ks in 29 ip, 3 QS, and a dazzling 2.79 era and a Doubront-like 1.38 whip. Certainly qualifies as a serviceable middle of the rotation guy, though I wonder if Straily won’t eventually be that as well for the remainder of the year. Regardless, seven rounds for two effective players is great value for Andrew. I wonder if Dave would’ve eventually gotten more, but nice to get two upgrades here as he continues his quality selloff.

------------------------

Ring receives:
3B Ryan Zimmerman WAS
SP Hyun Jin Ryu LAD
19th rounder

Cowhide receives:
3B Mark Reynolds CLE
SP Jake Westbrook STL
10th rounder

While I think Dave has done a good job overall, I think he sold himself a bit short here. Zimmerman has a spotty health history but overall very good production from a shallow position, which is why he’s been a keeper of Dave’s for so long. It’s sort of an unceremonious end to an era, in that respect. Even though Dagan was the only one in need of a 3B, the need was pretty severe in my opinion as Trevor Plouffe shouldn’t be a fulltime starter for anyone. And Ryu has been great this year with a 118/2.99/1.25/16 line, making him a quality 3-4th starter, something Dagan also badly needed. So I’d sayd Ryu was at least worth eight or nine rounds given Hellickson went for seven, while Zimmerman should have demanded at least that based on track record along. In total, I think Dagan got away with a two-for-the-price-of-one deal and Dave missed an opportunity to upgrade more picks.

--------------------------

Cowhide receives:
3B Will Middlebrooks BOS
SP Roy Oswalt COL
19th rounder

Keepin receives:
SP Chris Archer TB
OF Michael Brantley CLE
23rd rounder

Pierce entered the market a little late, leaving him to pick of the bones of the Cowhide carcass. Pretty good value here in that I actually like Archer more than Hellickson (pre-injury), who Dave received seven rounds for earlier. Brantley somehow continues to be viewed as someone who should always be on a roster (usually Dave) despite his middling line 56/8/54/12/.335. The runs and rbis aren’t bad, but there’s not much here worth anything. That said, Pierce didn’t give up a lot as the difference between players in the 23rd and the 19th is not great enough to make this a serious loss. Archer’s injury makes it a little sketchy as to whether he’ll gain any value from this trade, but it sounds like he should be ok.
--------------------------

Moose receives:
SP Tony Cingriani CIN

Grumpy receives:
SS Everth Cabrera SD

I chortled aloud when Brian posted in the trading lock that Cabrera is “a lower level keeper. You cannot deny that.” Ummm, I can. Keepers generally fall into one of two categories: track record or upside. Cabrera has neither and he’s a juicer. He’s 27. He has decent, not great on base skills (.330 career is more in line with what he is than the .355 he posted in his shortened season). No power, no rbis, and on a terrible offense that limits his ability to produce runs even if he gets on base at a .350 clip from the leadoff spot. He is – at best – a three category guy with no upside. That type of player should never be kept. Sure, stolen bases are great, but you can get Rajai Davis in the 20th and get almost the same exact player. This would be like keeping Juan Pierre in his prime – nonsensical and stupid. I’m shocked Brandon even bothered with this, frankly. I’d rather have Cingriani as a keeper honestly. That said, he’s not a keeper either and I wonder when the league will catch up to the fact that he essentially has one very good pitch. No picks were exchanged, so that makes it even more easy to assess this. Really, there’s no other way to view this than as a win for Brian because I find it hard to believe he’ll end up being one of Brandon’s final six. There was a dozen offseason trades and lots of opportunities to get players better than Cabrera at a reasonable price. Hell, I deal you Edward Mujica. He can do well in one category too.

--------------------------
Urban receives:
17th rounder

Montezumas receives:
SP Danny Salazar CLE
19th rounder

I lost my binky Corey Kluber, which is very sad and I am still in mourning. Best two rounds I ever dealt. Hopefully he comes back during the playoffs and hopefully I am in the playoffs to enjoy him again. Anyhow, I looked around at cheap options who can be a decent contributor in his stead and almost picked up Salazar off the wire, but I was scared off by his pending start in DET and decided to wait it out. Well, Dan smartly took a chance on him and watched him K 10 Tigers, including Cabrera three times, post triple digits in the late innings, then yield him a couple rounds of upgrade. I acquired Kluber in much of the same manner, so its fitting that I grab his replacement. Perhaps it will be a seemless transition once Kluber does come back and I’ll grab another start out of the week. However, I could also fail to make another move and have Salazar struggle or get shut down and it could ruin my season. These risk/reward plays are what make this game great.
--------------------------
Ring receives:
OF BJ Upton ATL
18th rounder

Urban receives:
3B Trevor Plouffe MIN
15th rounder

Dagan looks committed to buying cheap and he’s done a nice job of it. With Zimmerman coming over in another move, it makes a lot of sense to deal for a guy who was once an upper echelon player in the league who has been terrible but historically has had some stirring end-of-the-season hot streaks. This move will make Dagan look brilliant if it works out, and really isn’t much of a loss in terms of picks. He’s gotten three steals with a .400 obp since coming off the DL, so perhaps this is a sign of things to come. Great move.
--------------------------

One Nut receives:
OF Michael Cuddyer COL
2B Brandon Phillips
20th rounder

S. Napalm receives:
1B Albert Pujols LAA
14th rounder

How interesting. That’s certainly not value for a “top 30-35” keeper. Sort of remarkable that Jason has gone from a top keeper like Braun, to Pujols and Reyes, to just Reyes and perhaps Phillips.  This trade certainly helps him for this year, which I am sure is all  he cares about at the moment, and frankly I’d make the same move for this season. But that’s still a tough hit to take from a keeper perspective, and he had to give up six rounds. There is an argument to be made for Phillips as a keeper as he is on pace for 122 rbis from a very shallow position. But you won’t be hearing me make the argument. His rbi total is great, but its largely a function of being in such an excellent lineup with two of the best OBP guys in the league in front of him in Choo and Votto and Bruce awaiting any pitchers behind him. Now, he could certainly be in the same lineup position next year, but that is difficult to rely on fully as RBI totals are  dependent on a number of factors.  He could be back in the lower half of the lineup, or the less valuable two spot, and he’s unlikely to have Choo there with him. Meanwhile, there’s no category juice elsewhere. He’s on pace for 19 homers, so that’s pretty good; 77 runs is not, 2 steals is not, .311 obp is awful. Maybe Jason can deal him to some unsuspecting victim, but I don’t see much here. Cuddyer is obviously not a keeper, just a guy who has good seasons every now and then. The question is Pujols’ health. As I said before, if he’s healthy, he certainly belongs in the top 84. If he’s not, it’s like keeping Teixera this year. You could be holding on to nothing. If he looks good, Mike has Gomez, Strasburg, Beltre, Freeman, Darvish to create a very nice sixsome.  Add in the six rounds, and it’s a great move for Mike. I am curious as to why he’s depleting his roster since his team certainly had the talent to win it this year, but he committed to making 2014 his year at the outset and I suppose he’s sticking by it.  He still has a very good chance to make the playoffs if the team doesn’t fall off the deep end in the next three weeks, but Im not sure he’s got much of a shot for the title. Regardless, a high quality makeover for what was a terrible roster he inherited.
--------------------------

One Nut receives:
SP Clay Buchholz BOS
15th rounder

Urban receives:
OF Lorenzo Cain KC
13th rounder

The pick exchange was a little high, but all in all I think it’s a great move for Jason. Just seemed odd to make this move within the restricted rounds. He’ll kick himself if he can’t make any more high round trades and someone else opens up their roster (Lars?).  But Buchholz was dominant this year before the injury and even if he doesn’t come back til the playoffs, this makes a lot of sense because Jason can slot him in without having to use one of his playoff transactions.  He might never come back, but two rounds isn’t much either way.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Open Trading - Reviews Part 1



Montezuma’s receives:
SP Jarrod Parker OAK
21st rounder

Sexual Napalm receives:
14th rounder

Flashback to the first controversial trade of the year: Mike gets Pence, Parker and 4 rounds and I get Choo and Gallardo. Everyone thought Mike was so stupid, well Gay Santa got this one right.  Output since the trade:

-- Pence: 37/7/29/10/.317
-- Parker: 60/2.76/0.96/12

-- Choo: 41/6/16/8/.394
-- Gallardo:  41/5.77/1.53/3

Clearly, the problems with velocity for Gallardo were a bigger issue than it was last year. He’s since been traded off and Pence continues to have a nice year. He and Choo look like a wash at this point and both worthy of some keeper consideration. Parker immediately turned things around and I’ve watched impressive box score after impressive box score go by, thoroughly annoyed with my lack of patience. But so it goes. Score one for Gay Santa. Perhaps this is karma getting back for me getting 18 rounds of upgrade for Brett Anderson in the offseason. Hopefully Parker can keep it up and be a nice contributor to my deep rotation. Seven rounds in the middle sounds about right for a non-K contributors.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cowhide receives:
Adam Eaton
18th rounder

Anal receives:
Eric Young
14th rounder

Out of all the deals I have to review, do I really have to bother with this one. EY2 has speed. Eaton is supposed to have speed. Dave is out. Andrew is in. Four rounds may be a little too much for a guy with two categories, but given Andrew’s speed approach I guess its not a big deal.





------------------------------------------------------------------------

Montezumas receives:
RP Craig Kimbrel ATL
SP Francisco Liriano PIT
16th rounder
22nd rounder

Cowhide receives:
SP Bud Norris BAL
RP Brad Ziegler ARI
8th rounder
12th rounder

The first big deal looks like an overshoot on my part compared to what other guys are going for. An 8th rounder is the highest pick exchanged so far (tied), while the 12th rounder made me burn through my restricted picks rather quickly. Kudos for Dave for jumping on my aggressiveness and taking advantage of it. Eighteen rounds in a lot of cheddar for two non-keepers and the eighth is a nice place to get to.

That said, I identified the guys I wanted early and made sure I got them. Ryu is fine, Doubront is good, Bailey was a hot guy on the market, but I really wanted Liriano. His ability to dominate has him ranked as the 14th overall starter in ESPN’s 60ft 60in for ROS and his numbers clearly show he’s found his old self in the Steel City. In 102 ip, he’s got 106 ks to got with his sparkling 2.02/1.15 and 11 QS in 16 starts. There’s no reason to think he’ll slow down and he should be pitching meaningful innings to the very end.  With Jose Fernandez expected to be shut down in the next few weeks, I needed someone with K ability to make up for the loss and I got it. Meanwhile, Kimbrel has been his typical dominant self and teams with Mujica and Janssen to comprise a pretty damn good pen.




------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donkey receives:
C Matt Wieters BAL
UT Matt Carpenter STL
SP Homer Bailey
17th rounder
22nd rounder
23rd rounder

Urban receives:
1B Justin Smoak SEA
3B Anthony Rendon WAS
8th rounder
14th rounder
18th rounder

Holy makeover, Donkey! Chris clearly upgrades in a number of fronts, most notably with the addition of Carpenter and his crazy eligibility. With new acquisition Seager also on the team, Carp can function as a go everywhere fill in guy, which can be very valuable. He has come down to earth a bit though, so its possible Chris is buying the downswing, but a fine risk to take. Bailey is another big improvement that solidifies a group of starters that has been the dominating force that lead to Chris great season so far, but which has been inconsistent and injured as of late.  Bailey quietly has him on pace for 209 ks to go along with a 3.53/1.13 – those are borderline keeper numbers there. He can be a bit inconsistent, but still a great addition. I’m less enthused about the Wieters acquisition, as I think he’s perpetually overrated thanks to virtually unprecedented pre-MLB career hype and just middling numbers. I realize he’s better than Salty, but not by much. Ranked 12th among catchers, Weiters has 5 more hrs and 9 rbi in 57 abs, and a shitty .295 obp vs. Salty’s respectable .331. He really shouldn’t ever be considered a keeper.

The pick structure is weird since Chris actually gets an upgrade from the 18th to the 17th if you compare side by side. In total, Dan got a cool 22 rounds of upgrade for the threesome. Chris, meanwhile, may have given up more than necessary but managed to keep one of his restricted picks available.





------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donkey receives:
1B Prince Fielder DET
2B/3B Kyle Seager SEA
OF Yoenis Cespedes OAK

Angry Pirates receives:
2B Jason Kipnis CLE
OF Yasiel Puig LAD


Wow. Love this trade. So many interesting angles and no picks to weed through.

My initial thought is Chris gives up two high-end keepers for one high-end keeper and two midde-of-the-road keepers. All three of the guys Chris acquired have 17 homers. For Seager, that’s tremendous value given preseason expectations and he’s on pace for a 90/24/73/7/.361 season, which, as a 25-year-old with decent pedigree and a solid 2012 season would make him a pretty good low/mid keeper depending on how his final numbers shake out. However, the HR totals for Cespedes and Fielder are somewhat disappointing as both were expected to reach the 30-35 mark for the season. They both are capable of turning it on quickly, particularly Cespedes, so we may see some great additional value from this point forward. The team has some serious power now, though there is a considerable dearth of steals, with De Aza’s 13 the leader and no one else in double digits.

This is a tremendous trade for Kyle. Kipnis may be a little old (26) for someone going into their second full year, but he’s made tremendous strides and is on pace for a 83/22/100/30/.369 season. That is excellent for a second baseman and will be an excellent cornerstone to build around. It is important to consider Kipnis’ terrible second half in 2012 though. Meanwhile, Puig has been great and might get better. If you take his current production and project it out to 600 abs you get a 116/31/71/20/.427 line. Now, his early season pace has slowed and that projection would go down with a larger sample size, but that’s still damn good for someone barely old enough to drink. Those RBIs will go up too once he gets slotted in the power producing lineup spots. With McCutchen, these two should give Kyle another strong set of keepers

I think Chris’ team is fine on keepers, but the long-term implications are something to consider. Not to mention, it’s not like Puig and Kipnis were hurting Chris for 2013.  Both Kipnis and Puig are burgeoning young stars while Fielder clearly has peaked and Cespedes has been inconsistent enough to question what his year to year output will be. Seager is intriguing, but again, nothing tremendous. Puig is the big wildcard at 22 years old. Given the skills he’s displayed, its an excellent chance for Kyle to take and I’m not sure the end result for 2013 will be much better for Chris with the guys he received. That said, it’s a tremendous return on investment to turn a waiver wire pickup (Puig) into three solid guys that could help Chris win his first championship.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Restricted Trades

Available restricted picks to trade:

Montezuma's Revenge - 0 (Liriano/Kimbrel)
One Nut Wonders - 0 (Jensen/Chapman, Buchholz)
Moose is Loose - 0 (Teheran,/Andrus)
Ring of Fire - 0 (Pence/Wood, Zimm/Ryu)
Donkey Punchers - 1 (Bailey/Wieters/Carp)
Overrated - 1 (Beachy/Pap)
Prestige - 2
Keepin it Real  - 2
Grumpy Munchkins - 2
Cowhide - 2
Anal Hershieser - 2
Urban Achievers - 2
Angry Pirates - 2
Sexual Napalm - 2


























































Week 17 Real Rankings


Where did that come from Casten? Did you even realize it did happen?

Last three week average:



1
5.3
Clayton & The King

2
5.4
Ring of Fire

3
5.6
One Nut Wonders

4
5.8
Montezuma's Revenge

5
7.1
Donkey Punchers

6
7.2
Prestige Worldwide

7
7.3
Cowhide Joyride

8
7.7
The Angry Pirates

9
7.7
Keepin it REAL...

10
7.7
Anal Hershiser

11
7.8
Sexual Napalm

12
7.8
THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS

13
7.9
Moose is Loose!

14
10.1
Urban Achievers