Thursday, June 28, 2012
Trade review: Cowhide and Prestige
Cowhide receives:
3B Kevin Youkilis CHW
SP Jair Jurrjens ATL
7th rounder
10th rounder
Prestige receives
SP David Price TB
SP Jason Hammel BAL
18th rounder
19th rounder
I understand why Dave makes this move, but I’d side with Lars in terms of value here. I’d just want a little bit more if I was Dave and giving up my first and fourth rounders. I just don’t trust Hammel. Unlike some who come out of nowhere, Hammel has been around, is over 30, and had potential but failed to produce. I understand he was in COL but going from COL to BAL doesn’t just make your ERA drop from 4.76 and 4.81 the last two seasons to 2.61 (Hammel’s ERA prior to be shellacked by the Angels for 8 ER in 3 ip on Wed), nor does it make your whip suddenly drop from 1.40 to 1.10. I think he can continue to be good, but regression is coming (or recently came) and his 8 QS in 15 starts (53%) is not a good a QS%. I can’t really argue with the Price as he’s had a good season and seems to be developing into the frontline ace he was expected to be. I gave up my first last year for Hamels and have certainly not regretted it. It is possible Dave eventually regrets including the players he did, as Youk could be on the way up now that he’s in a new place and Jurrjens looked awfully good in his first start back against the Sox last Friday (7.2 ip, 1 er, 3 h, 1 bb, 4 k). At the very least, happy to see Dave in it to win it.
In a buyer’s market like we currently have, Lars did very well for himself, capitalizing on one of the best FA pickups of the year in Hammel. He also got two pieces in Youk and Jurrjens who, if they can show they’re back to being their old productive selves, can also yield a pick or two down the line. Twenty rounds of upgrade is always good, but to get two picks in the first four rounds is excellent. I do wonder how this impacts Lars’ keepers going forward. I assume he’s not done, but right now it’s Granderson, AGon, Longo, then maybe Asdrubal, Stubbs, Youk, Edwin E, Lynn, Neftali? A team giving up on the season should have better keepers than that, so we’ll see how he maneuvers this going forward. At the very least he can acquire a bunch of picks, then trade for keepers in the offseason from competing teams with excess.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Week 13 Power Rankings
1. Grumpy Munchkins – The trades Casten made propel him back to the top. He now has two frontline starters to go along with some impressive depth that will only get better once Marrow, Garcia, and Lilly return.
2. Montezuma’s Revenge – I think I’ve been pretty tough on my team as far as these rankings go, but this is deserved after the offensive performance of last week (38/14/51/.377) and the trade to acquire CLee and RDickey.
3. One Nut Wonders – Again, I didn’t understand the CWilson trade, as it hurt him and helped Casten for 2012. Good week this week overall, still in first, but other teams got better and he got worse. Utley is back this week; we’ll see what shape he’s in.
4. Clayton & The King – A split to Troy was probably not what Russ had hoped for heading into the week, but that was a really bad offensive week 27/5/15/7/.310. Gotta expect a rebound from Hamilton. And Trout, well, the guys is already a beast.
5. Ring of Fire – Dagan’s offense has rebounded in a big way, but pitching is still an issue. Hard to know what you’re getting from pitching when the era jumps from 2.41 one week to 5.03 the next. Tough one to rank because of this.
6. Moose is Loose – Pitching is definitely better, but the offense has slacked off a bit as of late (eight homers combined the past two weeks). Probably just a bump in the road though. Should be able to make up ground this week against Anal and is only 4.5 games out.
7. Donkey Punchers – Every team would’ve beat up on Andrew’s squad this week, but Chris’ crew continues its steady production with good numbers across the board and an 8-2 record. There’s a big gap between 6th and 7th, but there’s no reason to think Dave or Chris couldn’t make up 10 games over the course of the last nine weeks.
8. Cowhide Joyride – Can’t really tell which direction he’s going, but the results haven’t been bad and the names are still good here. Youk in CHW may help improve middle of the road offensive outputs.
9. The Angry Pirates – Lots of “if onlys” for Kyle, with that offense still humming along (45/14/42/4/.369) and the pitching actually improving, though not anywhere near good enough to go all the way. That said, if he wanted to sell out next year, he could acquire some pitching and definitely make a run at it.
10. Prestige Worldwide – Lars waved the white flag this week, but barring a complete immediate sell-off I could still see this team being disruptive to some playoff teams. He’s had overperformers in Hammel and Lynn, E5, Salty, Jetes, but the list of underperformers is just too long.
11. Keepin It Real – You know things aren’t going well when CRoss accounts for two-thirds of your homers and one-fourth of your RBIs. Was a good start away from 4-5 rather than 1-7 at the hands of Dagan.
12. Urban Achievers – Still plenty of good parts here that can compete week to week, but there’s five DLd guys at the moment, which takes a chunk out of production. Burnett and Broxton have been sneaky good and Eovaldi was a nice find as well. Dan has been quite the trash picker this year.
13. Billy Chapel – No team with a 36/13/37/5/.361 offensive line deserves to be last. Oh, and by the way, Reddick is still outperforming ARod, Kendrys, and IKennedy. Just sayin…
14. Anal Hershiser – Outside of six steals, there was just nothing good about last week’s output. Somehow he still managed two wins as his one save eclipsed Chris’ zero.
2. Montezuma’s Revenge – I think I’ve been pretty tough on my team as far as these rankings go, but this is deserved after the offensive performance of last week (38/14/51/.377) and the trade to acquire CLee and RDickey.
3. One Nut Wonders – Again, I didn’t understand the CWilson trade, as it hurt him and helped Casten for 2012. Good week this week overall, still in first, but other teams got better and he got worse. Utley is back this week; we’ll see what shape he’s in.
4. Clayton & The King – A split to Troy was probably not what Russ had hoped for heading into the week, but that was a really bad offensive week 27/5/15/7/.310. Gotta expect a rebound from Hamilton. And Trout, well, the guys is already a beast.
5. Ring of Fire – Dagan’s offense has rebounded in a big way, but pitching is still an issue. Hard to know what you’re getting from pitching when the era jumps from 2.41 one week to 5.03 the next. Tough one to rank because of this.
6. Moose is Loose – Pitching is definitely better, but the offense has slacked off a bit as of late (eight homers combined the past two weeks). Probably just a bump in the road though. Should be able to make up ground this week against Anal and is only 4.5 games out.
7. Donkey Punchers – Every team would’ve beat up on Andrew’s squad this week, but Chris’ crew continues its steady production with good numbers across the board and an 8-2 record. There’s a big gap between 6th and 7th, but there’s no reason to think Dave or Chris couldn’t make up 10 games over the course of the last nine weeks.
8. Cowhide Joyride – Can’t really tell which direction he’s going, but the results haven’t been bad and the names are still good here. Youk in CHW may help improve middle of the road offensive outputs.
9. The Angry Pirates – Lots of “if onlys” for Kyle, with that offense still humming along (45/14/42/4/.369) and the pitching actually improving, though not anywhere near good enough to go all the way. That said, if he wanted to sell out next year, he could acquire some pitching and definitely make a run at it.
10. Prestige Worldwide – Lars waved the white flag this week, but barring a complete immediate sell-off I could still see this team being disruptive to some playoff teams. He’s had overperformers in Hammel and Lynn, E5, Salty, Jetes, but the list of underperformers is just too long.
11. Keepin It Real – You know things aren’t going well when CRoss accounts for two-thirds of your homers and one-fourth of your RBIs. Was a good start away from 4-5 rather than 1-7 at the hands of Dagan.
12. Urban Achievers – Still plenty of good parts here that can compete week to week, but there’s five DLd guys at the moment, which takes a chunk out of production. Burnett and Broxton have been sneaky good and Eovaldi was a nice find as well. Dan has been quite the trash picker this year.
13. Billy Chapel – No team with a 36/13/37/5/.361 offensive line deserves to be last. Oh, and by the way, Reddick is still outperforming ARod, Kendrys, and IKennedy. Just sayin…
14. Anal Hershiser – Outside of six steals, there was just nothing good about last week’s output. Somehow he still managed two wins as his one save eclipsed Chris’ zero.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Trade Review: Grumpy and One Nut
Grumpy receives:
SP CJ Wilson LAA
Two 24th rounders
One Nut receives:
8th rounder
17th rounder
This one I just don’t get. Jason’s staff isn’t that good to begin with and in a tight race, he could not afford this hit. Sure, 23 rounds of pick upgrade is great, but how does this help for this year – you know, the one where he’s in first place (at the moment)? He’s good at the top with Weaver, but Shields and Beckett have just been OK, and Moore has been up and down and not at all reliable (only 6 QS and a 1.38 whip), then there’s Lohse playing well but a bit over his head (started last year even better, ended with a 3.39 era – not bad, but regression is coming), the unrosterable Hochevar, and a volatile Samardzija who may not be playing in the last weeks of the season. Wilson was consistently good with a beautiful 79/2.44/1.15/12, and was such a smart trade target earlier in the season (Konerko/Wilson/14th for Emilio /Alvarez/8th). I wouldn’t be surprised if Jason had something up his sleeve, but on the surface I don’t see how this helps. I know the draft was painful for him, but you play to win the game… this year.
Brandon gave up a lot, but this is very much worth it. Even outside the injuries his staff has sustained, the guys he had were painfully inconsistent at times. Wilson steps as a second ace of a revamped staff that now includes CC, Wilson, Garza, Hanson, Niese, Scherzer, ESantana, and eventually Morrow, JGarcia, and TLilly. It cost him a lot in terms of 2013, but he’s back in a big way. And Wilson very well could fetch a pick in the offseason, mitigating the loss next year. It also serves the duel role of hurting Jason for this year.
SP CJ Wilson LAA
Two 24th rounders
One Nut receives:
8th rounder
17th rounder
This one I just don’t get. Jason’s staff isn’t that good to begin with and in a tight race, he could not afford this hit. Sure, 23 rounds of pick upgrade is great, but how does this help for this year – you know, the one where he’s in first place (at the moment)? He’s good at the top with Weaver, but Shields and Beckett have just been OK, and Moore has been up and down and not at all reliable (only 6 QS and a 1.38 whip), then there’s Lohse playing well but a bit over his head (started last year even better, ended with a 3.39 era – not bad, but regression is coming), the unrosterable Hochevar, and a volatile Samardzija who may not be playing in the last weeks of the season. Wilson was consistently good with a beautiful 79/2.44/1.15/12, and was such a smart trade target earlier in the season (Konerko/Wilson/14th for Emilio /Alvarez/8th). I wouldn’t be surprised if Jason had something up his sleeve, but on the surface I don’t see how this helps. I know the draft was painful for him, but you play to win the game… this year.
Brandon gave up a lot, but this is very much worth it. Even outside the injuries his staff has sustained, the guys he had were painfully inconsistent at times. Wilson steps as a second ace of a revamped staff that now includes CC, Wilson, Garza, Hanson, Niese, Scherzer, ESantana, and eventually Morrow, JGarcia, and TLilly. It cost him a lot in terms of 2013, but he’s back in a big way. And Wilson very well could fetch a pick in the offseason, mitigating the loss next year. It also serves the duel role of hurting Jason for this year.
Trade Review: Cowhide and Grumpy
Cowhide receives:
SP Kris Medlen ATL
15th rounder
Grumpy receives:
SP Addison Reed CHW
20th rounder
Not much to see here. Makes sense for both and was roughly the going rate for a decent closer around the trade deadline last year. I wonder what this means for Dave with him sitting in 7th place in the league. Might be nothing, he just figured he didn’t need another closer. Medlen could still have some value if he ends up starting, but he’s also a good reliever. Casten could use a third closer, so this will help there.
SP Kris Medlen ATL
15th rounder
Grumpy receives:
SP Addison Reed CHW
20th rounder
Not much to see here. Makes sense for both and was roughly the going rate for a decent closer around the trade deadline last year. I wonder what this means for Dave with him sitting in 7th place in the league. Might be nothing, he just figured he didn’t need another closer. Medlen could still have some value if he ends up starting, but he’s also a good reliever. Casten could use a third closer, so this will help there.
Trade Review: Grumpy and Anal
Grumpy receives:
SP Ervin Santana LAA
23rd rounder
Anal receives:
SP Brandon Beachy ATL
18th rounder
You would’ve vomited on your keyboard if you opened your email and found this trade a few weeks ago, but alas Tommy John surgery has almost become a right of passage for young hurlers like Beachy. I know Casten tried to put him out there as a potential keeper, but he’s really just a throw-in here in my mind. If guys who had huge seasons like Bumgarner, Cain, CWilson, and Garza weren’t kept going into 2013, a young starter with no chance of returning before next All Star Break has no business being kept. Not to mention TJS is not an immediatel cure all. Look at Wainright’s struggles to begin the season, or Volquez last year. It takes some time to get the control down, so we’re looking at Beachy – a pitcher with much less of a track record – being possibly reliable for the H&T playoffs in 2013. But my guess is if your team ends up keeping Beachy, you won’t have to worry about the playoffs.
Santana has upside, but hasn’t had a consistent season and he’s probably just worth a five-round upgrade late in the draft at this point. If he straightens out, he could definitely prove to be profitable for Casten. He’s got an ugly 61/5.16/1.34/6, but when he gets his arm slot consistent he can be great, as evidenced by the recent one-hitter (which followed two starts with 14er in 9.1ip) and no hitter last year. But so far, this looks like it may be one of his “off” years.
SP Ervin Santana LAA
23rd rounder
Anal receives:
SP Brandon Beachy ATL
18th rounder
You would’ve vomited on your keyboard if you opened your email and found this trade a few weeks ago, but alas Tommy John surgery has almost become a right of passage for young hurlers like Beachy. I know Casten tried to put him out there as a potential keeper, but he’s really just a throw-in here in my mind. If guys who had huge seasons like Bumgarner, Cain, CWilson, and Garza weren’t kept going into 2013, a young starter with no chance of returning before next All Star Break has no business being kept. Not to mention TJS is not an immediatel cure all. Look at Wainright’s struggles to begin the season, or Volquez last year. It takes some time to get the control down, so we’re looking at Beachy – a pitcher with much less of a track record – being possibly reliable for the H&T playoffs in 2013. But my guess is if your team ends up keeping Beachy, you won’t have to worry about the playoffs.
Santana has upside, but hasn’t had a consistent season and he’s probably just worth a five-round upgrade late in the draft at this point. If he straightens out, he could definitely prove to be profitable for Casten. He’s got an ugly 61/5.16/1.34/6, but when he gets his arm slot consistent he can be great, as evidenced by the recent one-hitter (which followed two starts with 14er in 9.1ip) and no hitter last year. But so far, this looks like it may be one of his “off” years.
Trade Review: Montezuma and Keepin
Montezumas receives:
SP Cliff Lee PHI
SP RA Dickey NYM
16th rounder
21st rounder
Keeping it Real
SP Chris Sale CHW
SP Roy Oswalt TEX
8th rounder
15th rounder
Quite the little blockbuster here, where I managed to grab the #3 overall player in fantasy and a consensus top 5 starter to begin the season in Dickey and Cliff Lee. Its funny reading the fantasy “experts” talk about Dickey because even those with impressive statistical chops have no clue what to do with him because no one has ever done it before like him. Whatever he’s doing, he’s feeling it and I’m counting on that continuing for the rest of the season. It’s funny because Dickey’s underlying numbers from 2011 were among those that stood out when I was ranking before the season (decent xFip, 69% QS%), but I couldn’t get over my anti-knuckleballing bias and draft him. Lee hasn’t played to his capability, but he’s still really good and I expect will improve down the stretch. I like young hurlers and the prospect of finding the next 250k young flamethrower as much as anyone, but stable veterans really make for more consistent returns. The staff of CHamels, CLee, JPeavy, JJohnson, RDickey, JMcDonald, THudson, CLewis, CCapuano, and HBailey could be a wrecking ball going forward. As of now I think I’ve done a nice job improving my roster without doing too much damage to 2013 (net loss is my 8, 9, and 13 for a 17, 19, and 21)
Pierce gets Sale, who has pitched better than Lee so far this season, but will not likely be viewed as a better keeper going into 2013. Still, Pierce might’ve gotten in on the ground floor of a potential mega star. There was an injury concern earlier in the season, which lead to the brief anointment as closer, but the MRI proved fine. He’s performed at an elite level, at a young age, and in a tough ballpark, but he probably only will have 60-70 innings left this season (though no formal cap has been announced), so it would’ve been tough to keep him if I made the playoffs. Meanwhile, Oswalt may be a smart pickup because he has the name recognition that, even with a smidgen of success, he could yield another pick for Pierce. Tough, tough park for him though and it gets worse in the summer, so it remains to be seen what type of returns are in store. They were uncertain enough that I was fine moving on from him even though I had him eating a roster spot for a month.
SP Cliff Lee PHI
SP RA Dickey NYM
16th rounder
21st rounder
Keeping it Real
SP Chris Sale CHW
SP Roy Oswalt TEX
8th rounder
15th rounder
Quite the little blockbuster here, where I managed to grab the #3 overall player in fantasy and a consensus top 5 starter to begin the season in Dickey and Cliff Lee. Its funny reading the fantasy “experts” talk about Dickey because even those with impressive statistical chops have no clue what to do with him because no one has ever done it before like him. Whatever he’s doing, he’s feeling it and I’m counting on that continuing for the rest of the season. It’s funny because Dickey’s underlying numbers from 2011 were among those that stood out when I was ranking before the season (decent xFip, 69% QS%), but I couldn’t get over my anti-knuckleballing bias and draft him. Lee hasn’t played to his capability, but he’s still really good and I expect will improve down the stretch. I like young hurlers and the prospect of finding the next 250k young flamethrower as much as anyone, but stable veterans really make for more consistent returns. The staff of CHamels, CLee, JPeavy, JJohnson, RDickey, JMcDonald, THudson, CLewis, CCapuano, and HBailey could be a wrecking ball going forward. As of now I think I’ve done a nice job improving my roster without doing too much damage to 2013 (net loss is my 8, 9, and 13 for a 17, 19, and 21)
Pierce gets Sale, who has pitched better than Lee so far this season, but will not likely be viewed as a better keeper going into 2013. Still, Pierce might’ve gotten in on the ground floor of a potential mega star. There was an injury concern earlier in the season, which lead to the brief anointment as closer, but the MRI proved fine. He’s performed at an elite level, at a young age, and in a tough ballpark, but he probably only will have 60-70 innings left this season (though no formal cap has been announced), so it would’ve been tough to keep him if I made the playoffs. Meanwhile, Oswalt may be a smart pickup because he has the name recognition that, even with a smidgen of success, he could yield another pick for Pierce. Tough, tough park for him though and it gets worse in the summer, so it remains to be seen what type of returns are in store. They were uncertain enough that I was fine moving on from him even though I had him eating a roster spot for a month.
Trade Review: Cowhide and Ring
Cowhide Joyride receives:
1B/3B Kevin Youkilis BOS
Ring of Fire receives:
SP Tim Lincecum SF
This was kind of funny to see. In a million years I never would’ve expected to see this trade and just think, “ho hum, no big deal.”
Really, tough season for both guys and both need to turn it around soon. At this point, they’re both almost unusable as they’ve failed to exploit even the weakest matchups. I think I’d rather have Lincecum and it certainly makes sense for Dagan given his current roster, but who know what a change of scenery could do for Youk, especially if he gets to play first. The day will come soon and maybe he’ll turn it around and give 300 high quality at bats. Certainly one to revisit later this season to see who won.
1B/3B Kevin Youkilis BOS
Ring of Fire receives:
SP Tim Lincecum SF
This was kind of funny to see. In a million years I never would’ve expected to see this trade and just think, “ho hum, no big deal.”
Really, tough season for both guys and both need to turn it around soon. At this point, they’re both almost unusable as they’ve failed to exploit even the weakest matchups. I think I’d rather have Lincecum and it certainly makes sense for Dagan given his current roster, but who know what a change of scenery could do for Youk, especially if he gets to play first. The day will come soon and maybe he’ll turn it around and give 300 high quality at bats. Certainly one to revisit later this season to see who won.
Trade Review: Clayton and Angry
Clayton Receives:
SP Clay Buchholz BOS
RP Heath Bell MIA
13th rounder
Angry Pirates receives:
SS Andrelton Simmons ATL
SP Kyle Kendrick PHI
10th rounder
This was a great move by Russ as the three-round downgrade is relatively little and he gets a revitalized starter and closer. In three weeks these guys probably would’ve cost him ten rounds, so this is a great move on his part.
That said, I can’t really blame Kyle here since Clay was a bad start aware from AAA a couple weeks ago and Bell already had the closer role briefly taken away from him. So, he very well could’ve had no value between the two of them in three weeks as well. The difference between 10th (celiign: Feese, Melky, Mous, floor: Francour, Ubaldo) and 13th (ceiling: CLewis, Prado, floor: Alexei… and Bell actually)isn’t huge, but its certainly more than say the 17th and the 20th. He’s doing what he should be doing at this point – trade parts, acquire more parts, trade those parts, acquire more.
SP Clay Buchholz BOS
RP Heath Bell MIA
13th rounder
Angry Pirates receives:
SS Andrelton Simmons ATL
SP Kyle Kendrick PHI
10th rounder
This was a great move by Russ as the three-round downgrade is relatively little and he gets a revitalized starter and closer. In three weeks these guys probably would’ve cost him ten rounds, so this is a great move on his part.
That said, I can’t really blame Kyle here since Clay was a bad start aware from AAA a couple weeks ago and Bell already had the closer role briefly taken away from him. So, he very well could’ve had no value between the two of them in three weeks as well. The difference between 10th (celiign: Feese, Melky, Mous, floor: Francour, Ubaldo) and 13th (ceiling: CLewis, Prado, floor: Alexei… and Bell actually)isn’t huge, but its certainly more than say the 17th and the 20th. He’s doing what he should be doing at this point – trade parts, acquire more parts, trade those parts, acquire more.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Week 12 Power Rankings
1. One Nut Wonders – In a battle of the top two, Jason narrowly beat out Casten in R, HR, and STL to take a 8-2 win and provide further proof of his ascension. Pitching was excellent with an incredible 2.16/1.05 line, which he’ll need this week going against Montezuma, which has nearly double the probable starts. Having Beckett and Weaver on the DL certainly makes the upcoming week a challenge, but both are expected back after their respective stints, with Weaver possibly back this weekend. The difference between the top six teams seems to get smaller and smaller each week.
2. Clayton & The King – Any week you go 0-3-2 in pitching is bad, but when you do so posting a line of 65/2.34/1.12/9, it is particularly painful. The offense wasn’t anywhere close to Dagan (18 rbis vs. 39), but Russ’ numbers were certainly at least worthy of a split. Instead, he fell 2-6-2 and dropped to fifth in the standings, but he moves up here due largely to the demise of Brandon’s pitching staff.
3. Grumpy Munchkins – Graveyard indeed. Really, this drop is just a reflection of the current state of his pitching staff. Casten’s team remains an offensive powerhouse, but he didn’t get a save last week and now has Garcia, Lilly, Beachy, Morrow, and Estrada on the DL, and Medlen in the bullpen (at least for now). That gives him six healthy starters and one of them is named Brad Lincoln. The Sabathia trade certainly helps (short term), especially since Norris is DL’d. Once some of these guys come back healthy, Brandon will move back up. But a lot of the injuries don’t have the greatest outlook, so it remains to be seen if this is a just the start of a hard fall or a blip.
4. Ring of Fire – For a week of bad offensive outputs, Dagan’s squad didn’t seem to notice with an incredible 35/17/39/.398 line lead by the almighty powerful Plouffe and his Reds boppers. Today’s trade gives him a rotation full of impressive names, albeit with middling results so far this season. If Lincecum can turn it around, the trade could be a game-changer but he’s shown no signs of pulling out of this spiral. The big production for the week pushes him up, but he'll need consistency to stay there.
5. Moose is Loose – Tough week for Moose, as the 21/3/19/5/.320 line was among the worst performing offenses for the week. Pitching was much improved with Vogelsong and Cahill yielding immediate dividends and posting a 3/62/3.28/1.09/7 line, which helped Brian take a 6-3 win over Pierce. Bring back a productive Tulo and Markakis and this offense is capable of competing with the top teams most weeks. If they were healthy, I’d put Brian above Casten at the moment.
6. Montezuma’s Revenge – Definitely wouldn’t have gotten a sweep against most teams this week, or even Troy’s team on a normal week, but sometimes you just get lucky. The pitching was more dominant than it shows on paper since I benched four starts (4 qs and 30 k) because I didn’t need them. I still like the names on offense, just need to production to come round (that means you, JUpton and Santana). The showdown with Jason will show if this team is ready to compete with the top tier.
7. Donkey Punchers – This seems to be the spot for Chris as his team has shown some resilience on a week-to-week basis, but areas of outperformance are limited, making it difficult to project this as a playoff team. Again, the pitching rates were stellar at 1.81/0.94, but the numbers game isn’t working with only 39 ks and 5 qs. A few more runs and a couple homers would’ve made this a better week than 5-4-1. The roster is still good, but there’s a clear top six in the standings and the power rankings, and Chris might need a few good trades to make it a seven-team tier.
8. Cowhide Joyride – It’s tough to rank Dave’s team week to week because the outputs vary so greatly. There wasn’t a lot to like this week, even though he eeked out a 6-4 win over Angry. He won four of five offensive categories with a depressing 23/4/23/6/.318 line and posted a 4.71 era and apparently is selling off his starters. I liked Dave’s team to start the season and while the keepers have underperformed (RWeeks, Lincecum, Andrus, Zimmerman particularly), there is still hope.
9. Keepin It Real – There was enough production to warrant something more than the 3-6-1 loss at the hands of Moose, but both teams only managed three homers and Pierce only had 3 qs. His OBP has been consistently excellent, but its only one category and the pitching rates were middle of the pack 4.42/1.24. I’m not convinced this team can’t make a run at it, especially if he gets healthy. He’ll need to load up on starters and ditch some of the bench bats, but there’s still promise here and plenty of weeks to go.
10. Prestige Worldwide – Another tough week for Lars as his DL list grew once again
with Stubbs. The problem with Lars is no one is getting healthy and he’s losing ground every week. Though he won saves handily (8 to nil) and tied Chris (shockingly) with 5 qs, that 4.18 era was not good and 18 rbis, 0 steals, and .316 obp just won’t cut it. He needs AGon to bounce back, and Asdrubal, Maybin, and Kendrick to party like its 2011 again. Otherwise, it may be over soon.
11. Urban Achievers – As Dan builds for the future, the present is bringing mixed results with league highs in runs (39) and steals (8), as well as the highest era and whip (5.28/1.55). He was able to stream his way to a 6-3-1 win against his fellow expansion team, but he won’t be able to keep that up with a 50 transaction limit. Whatever happens this year, at least Dan can look at that bright shiny glimmer of hope for the future in Bryce Harper.
12. The Angry Pirates – Tough week on offense with a dismal line of 18/5/22/0/.283, while pitching was pretty damn good with a record 88 ks for the week and 8 qs. The selloff continues to progress with the dealing of Buchholz and Bell and there’s plenty of parts left to deal. Of course, the number of sellers seems to be outnumbering the buyers quite a bit. That might be different if we still had eight playoff teams, but we’ll have to see how the market goes this year.
13. Anal Hershiser – The .376 obp was good, but Andrew was one of many teams that struggled to drive in runs this week (five teams had less than 20 RBI for the week). There’s just not much in the way of O here and the effective spare parts for contenders are only mildly appealing at this point. That said, he is in the best shape so far in terms of 2013 picks, with two firsts and two seconds, and he’s got Verlander and Strasburg to build around.
14. Billy Chapel – After an awesome offensive line of 31/10/37/3/.352 the week prior, the same offense could only must a 25/4/17/4/.268 line, which matched a lousy pitching line and helped Montezuma complete the sweep. There’sstill pieces to move here and there’s picks to be had, but Troy has yet to pickup a pick despite the numerous trades. Sitting 43 games out of first, with two closers, some effective starters and a few good power bats, its time to capitalize on the needs of others.
2. Clayton & The King – Any week you go 0-3-2 in pitching is bad, but when you do so posting a line of 65/2.34/1.12/9, it is particularly painful. The offense wasn’t anywhere close to Dagan (18 rbis vs. 39), but Russ’ numbers were certainly at least worthy of a split. Instead, he fell 2-6-2 and dropped to fifth in the standings, but he moves up here due largely to the demise of Brandon’s pitching staff.
3. Grumpy Munchkins – Graveyard indeed. Really, this drop is just a reflection of the current state of his pitching staff. Casten’s team remains an offensive powerhouse, but he didn’t get a save last week and now has Garcia, Lilly, Beachy, Morrow, and Estrada on the DL, and Medlen in the bullpen (at least for now). That gives him six healthy starters and one of them is named Brad Lincoln. The Sabathia trade certainly helps (short term), especially since Norris is DL’d. Once some of these guys come back healthy, Brandon will move back up. But a lot of the injuries don’t have the greatest outlook, so it remains to be seen if this is a just the start of a hard fall or a blip.
4. Ring of Fire – For a week of bad offensive outputs, Dagan’s squad didn’t seem to notice with an incredible 35/17/39/.398 line lead by the almighty powerful Plouffe and his Reds boppers. Today’s trade gives him a rotation full of impressive names, albeit with middling results so far this season. If Lincecum can turn it around, the trade could be a game-changer but he’s shown no signs of pulling out of this spiral. The big production for the week pushes him up, but he'll need consistency to stay there.
5. Moose is Loose – Tough week for Moose, as the 21/3/19/5/.320 line was among the worst performing offenses for the week. Pitching was much improved with Vogelsong and Cahill yielding immediate dividends and posting a 3/62/3.28/1.09/7 line, which helped Brian take a 6-3 win over Pierce. Bring back a productive Tulo and Markakis and this offense is capable of competing with the top teams most weeks. If they were healthy, I’d put Brian above Casten at the moment.
6. Montezuma’s Revenge – Definitely wouldn’t have gotten a sweep against most teams this week, or even Troy’s team on a normal week, but sometimes you just get lucky. The pitching was more dominant than it shows on paper since I benched four starts (4 qs and 30 k) because I didn’t need them. I still like the names on offense, just need to production to come round (that means you, JUpton and Santana). The showdown with Jason will show if this team is ready to compete with the top tier.
7. Donkey Punchers – This seems to be the spot for Chris as his team has shown some resilience on a week-to-week basis, but areas of outperformance are limited, making it difficult to project this as a playoff team. Again, the pitching rates were stellar at 1.81/0.94, but the numbers game isn’t working with only 39 ks and 5 qs. A few more runs and a couple homers would’ve made this a better week than 5-4-1. The roster is still good, but there’s a clear top six in the standings and the power rankings, and Chris might need a few good trades to make it a seven-team tier.
8. Cowhide Joyride – It’s tough to rank Dave’s team week to week because the outputs vary so greatly. There wasn’t a lot to like this week, even though he eeked out a 6-4 win over Angry. He won four of five offensive categories with a depressing 23/4/23/6/.318 line and posted a 4.71 era and apparently is selling off his starters. I liked Dave’s team to start the season and while the keepers have underperformed (RWeeks, Lincecum, Andrus, Zimmerman particularly), there is still hope.
9. Keepin It Real – There was enough production to warrant something more than the 3-6-1 loss at the hands of Moose, but both teams only managed three homers and Pierce only had 3 qs. His OBP has been consistently excellent, but its only one category and the pitching rates were middle of the pack 4.42/1.24. I’m not convinced this team can’t make a run at it, especially if he gets healthy. He’ll need to load up on starters and ditch some of the bench bats, but there’s still promise here and plenty of weeks to go.
10. Prestige Worldwide – Another tough week for Lars as his DL list grew once again
with Stubbs. The problem with Lars is no one is getting healthy and he’s losing ground every week. Though he won saves handily (8 to nil) and tied Chris (shockingly) with 5 qs, that 4.18 era was not good and 18 rbis, 0 steals, and .316 obp just won’t cut it. He needs AGon to bounce back, and Asdrubal, Maybin, and Kendrick to party like its 2011 again. Otherwise, it may be over soon.
11. Urban Achievers – As Dan builds for the future, the present is bringing mixed results with league highs in runs (39) and steals (8), as well as the highest era and whip (5.28/1.55). He was able to stream his way to a 6-3-1 win against his fellow expansion team, but he won’t be able to keep that up with a 50 transaction limit. Whatever happens this year, at least Dan can look at that bright shiny glimmer of hope for the future in Bryce Harper.
12. The Angry Pirates – Tough week on offense with a dismal line of 18/5/22/0/.283, while pitching was pretty damn good with a record 88 ks for the week and 8 qs. The selloff continues to progress with the dealing of Buchholz and Bell and there’s plenty of parts left to deal. Of course, the number of sellers seems to be outnumbering the buyers quite a bit. That might be different if we still had eight playoff teams, but we’ll have to see how the market goes this year.
13. Anal Hershiser – The .376 obp was good, but Andrew was one of many teams that struggled to drive in runs this week (five teams had less than 20 RBI for the week). There’s just not much in the way of O here and the effective spare parts for contenders are only mildly appealing at this point. That said, he is in the best shape so far in terms of 2013 picks, with two firsts and two seconds, and he’s got Verlander and Strasburg to build around.
14. Billy Chapel – After an awesome offensive line of 31/10/37/3/.352 the week prior, the same offense could only must a 25/4/17/4/.268 line, which matched a lousy pitching line and helped Montezuma complete the sweep. There’sstill pieces to move here and there’s picks to be had, but Troy has yet to pickup a pick despite the numerous trades. Sitting 43 games out of first, with two closers, some effective starters and a few good power bats, its time to capitalize on the needs of others.
Friday, June 15, 2012
Trade Review: Grumpy and Urban
Urban Receives
OF Bryce Harper WAS
SP Bud Norris HOU
Grumpy receives:
SP CC Sabathia NYY
OF Chris Young ARI
I think this is massive overreaction by Casten and a clear step forward for Dan, who has acquired the most productive 19 year old we’ve seen since ARod. Someone who could assume a Pujols-like stranglehold on one of the top-three fantasy players in the league as early as next year. He has been hyped like few others and he has lived up to the hype. Given his current rate of production over 155 abs, if you stretched that across 600 abs you get 116/27/73/15/.384 – so, like Alex Gordon in 2011, only nine years younger. Take ARod’s stats through approximately this many at bats in his career (just about to turn 20) and his projected line over 600 was 63/21/80/16/.264. We all know what ARod went on to do, obviously with the help of some PEDs and at a much shallower position, but this is what Harper is capable of: super--dare I add “duper”--stardom.
CC, meanwhile, is just not having a great season. Sure, a legit, steady-performing ace, most likely worth keeping at least for the next couple years. But outside of his exemplary K numbers (92 in 92.1 ip), that 3.70/1.27/8 qs is imminently replaceable. It’s actually about half of Bud Norris’ production total from last year (176/3.77/1.33/16 qs). As far as aces go, his 22 qs in 33 starts in 2011 (67%) was pretty low compared to most and in line with guys like Beckett, Latos, CWilson, Garza types – decent but not fantastic. In a league that doesn’t count wins, CC is a light drop in K production away from being only a low-level keeper (keep in mind guys like Cain and Bumgarner were not kept last year).
I fully expect Harper to outproduce Young in all categories this year, with a potentially large outperformance in OBP (Young’s career OBP is .320). Meanwhile, the difference between CC and Norris might not be that great. Don’t get me wrong, CC is very steady and Norris is not – an underrated attribute in a starter. But, prior to his May 26th start, Norris’ 4.81 ERA was 3.14 and he was one of the more dependable starters in the league. He’s got a sprained knee, but I expect his ERA will settle back down to something under last year, in the 3.60 vicinity. CC’s should be a bit better, but not significantly. Both will likely post a 9.0 k/9. Norris’ WHIP could be much worse than CC’s, but how much of a difference is 1.45 vs. 1.25 really going to make? I would’ve made him take Brad Lincoln.
Casten’s team is better, don’t get me wrong, but not substantially. I think Casten took a bit of shine off his brilliance in keeping Harper despite the widespread belief that he wouldn’t be up and this productive in 2012, thus making the equivalent of a sixth round pick on him look foolish. I know his pitching has gone to hell in a handbasket here pretty quickly, which is certainly frustrating, but I thought he could get more for Harper – even if it was a few weeks down the road. I just think the difference between CC and Bud and Young’s history of 80/20/80/20 seasons isn’t enough for the Next Big Thing, who very well could be the Current Big Thing. Meanwhile, I like what Dan’s doing with Harper, Jennings, and Moustakas as nice young core of keepers, with guys like Gio, BUpton, and Choo to fill in behind (though improvement may be coming there as well). He also benefits from the fact that there’s a possibility that, not only does he get one of the best young players in quite some time, but the guys he received both could outperform the guys he gave up in 2012 and he remains in the race while preparing for the future.
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Trade Review: Moose and Urban
Moose is Loose receives:
SP Ryan Vogelsong SF
SP Trevor Cahill ARI
19th rounder
Urban Achievers receives:
OF BJ Upton TB
SP John Danks CHW
13th rounder
I had serious doubts about Vogelsong going into the season, namely that all signs and most statistics pointed to fluke – similar to the seasons of guys like Phil Humber and Josh Collmenter. 34-year-old journeymen just don’t have continued success after flopping early on and playing in other countries for five years. But its not unprecedented, as Colby Lewis took a similar path, and Vogelsong seems to be more like Lewis than the other two. He’s been great and it makes the first trade involving Vogelsong earlier in the season (BPhillips, JWilliams, 24th to One Nut for ZCozart, Vogelsong, and 19th rounder to Urban) look a lot better than I originally thought (and deemed “lopsided”). This is a good move for Brian because he had the OF depth to deal off Upton and received two very solid and relatively stable producers to fill the middle of his rotation – something his team severly lacked before. Danks needs to be healthy and productive for a few weeks before he could even be considered as a matchup play at this point. The six round difference is not insignificant when you look at the value in each round – 13th ceiling: Prado, CLewis; floor: injured closers; and 19th ceiling: VWorley, Zambrano, floor: JVazquez, JSanchez, BPeacock, Danks – so it was certainly was not a steal for Brian, but it was worthwhile given his needs and considered in tandem with the previous trade.
For Dan, it was a great move. Upton, while frustrating and volatile, has keeper talent and is in a contract year. While he was injured to start the year, I expect significant improvement in short order. If you pick out his top performances in the five categories throughout his career (five full seasons), you get a line of 89/24/82/44/.386. I highly doubt you’ll ever see that all in one season, but he’s still just 27 and the potential for a top-20 year has always been there. In exchange for guys that are in no way keepers in Vogelsong and Cahill, that’s a fine return, but it also doesn’t seriously hurt his chances to compete this year. At this point, teams in the bottom third should really be playing for today still keeping an eye toward the future – and this trade does that for Dan. The pick upgrade is a nice touch.
For those who are “out of it” I encourage you to stay involved. It not only allows you to stay competitive and make a playoff run, but there’s always value on the wire, which can help your team. Casten did this well last year. He sold off spare parts early, acquired more, then sold it off again, and made the playoffs. Now he’s easily one of the top two teams. A good example would be Corey Luebke. He picked him up as a speculative free agent after he was moved to the rotation after success in the bullpen, then traded him to me for a four round upgrade (16th to 12th).
SP Ryan Vogelsong SF
SP Trevor Cahill ARI
19th rounder
Urban Achievers receives:
OF BJ Upton TB
SP John Danks CHW
13th rounder
I had serious doubts about Vogelsong going into the season, namely that all signs and most statistics pointed to fluke – similar to the seasons of guys like Phil Humber and Josh Collmenter. 34-year-old journeymen just don’t have continued success after flopping early on and playing in other countries for five years. But its not unprecedented, as Colby Lewis took a similar path, and Vogelsong seems to be more like Lewis than the other two. He’s been great and it makes the first trade involving Vogelsong earlier in the season (BPhillips, JWilliams, 24th to One Nut for ZCozart, Vogelsong, and 19th rounder to Urban) look a lot better than I originally thought (and deemed “lopsided”). This is a good move for Brian because he had the OF depth to deal off Upton and received two very solid and relatively stable producers to fill the middle of his rotation – something his team severly lacked before. Danks needs to be healthy and productive for a few weeks before he could even be considered as a matchup play at this point. The six round difference is not insignificant when you look at the value in each round – 13th ceiling: Prado, CLewis; floor: injured closers; and 19th ceiling: VWorley, Zambrano, floor: JVazquez, JSanchez, BPeacock, Danks – so it was certainly was not a steal for Brian, but it was worthwhile given his needs and considered in tandem with the previous trade.
For Dan, it was a great move. Upton, while frustrating and volatile, has keeper talent and is in a contract year. While he was injured to start the year, I expect significant improvement in short order. If you pick out his top performances in the five categories throughout his career (five full seasons), you get a line of 89/24/82/44/.386. I highly doubt you’ll ever see that all in one season, but he’s still just 27 and the potential for a top-20 year has always been there. In exchange for guys that are in no way keepers in Vogelsong and Cahill, that’s a fine return, but it also doesn’t seriously hurt his chances to compete this year. At this point, teams in the bottom third should really be playing for today still keeping an eye toward the future – and this trade does that for Dan. The pick upgrade is a nice touch.
For those who are “out of it” I encourage you to stay involved. It not only allows you to stay competitive and make a playoff run, but there’s always value on the wire, which can help your team. Casten did this well last year. He sold off spare parts early, acquired more, then sold it off again, and made the playoffs. Now he’s easily one of the top two teams. A good example would be Corey Luebke. He picked him up as a speculative free agent after he was moved to the rotation after success in the bullpen, then traded him to me for a four round upgrade (16th to 12th).
Trade Review: Moose and Anal
Moose is Loose receives
SP Dan Haren LAA
24th rounder
Anal Hershiser receives:
SP Ervin Santana LAA
7th rounder
I like this move for both teams. Oddly, I actually thought about basically this exact trade between these two teams while I was mowing the lawn Sunday (I have three acres – it takes a while). For Andrew, I offered many deals in exchange for Haren that had me giving up much less, so good for him for waiting it out to cash in. He did big time, as a second first rounder is a huge advantage. The number of swings and misses in the first round is usually minimal (Crawford and Reynolds were the only real flops so far and both have been injuries, while Latos and Kendrick have certainly underperformed), while the number of hits in the 24th is basically nil (I believe Hochevar is the only one that has not been dropped at some point – and I really have no clue why Jason still owns him). A 17-round upgrade is awesome, but there is also potential value in ESantana. He has been up and down all year, but he’s been very good at times and was great down the stretch for me last year, so there could be additional value to be had here.
For Brian, I applaud the move and obviously think it greatly improves his chances. Haren is a legit number two behind Greinke. With his other trade, Brian suddenly has a deep rotation that is considerably more stable and places him squarely in the top tier of teams. The nice part about acquiring someone like Haren is that he would need to do pretty bad to not be considered a keeper for somebody next year. This means Brian can either keep him as a great SP duo or deal him in the offseason for what could be a considerable upgrade, which could cut into that 17-round downgrade. I grabbed Hamels last year in exchange for my top pick (ultimately used for Berkman) and have no regrets. Could be a game-changer.
SP Dan Haren LAA
24th rounder
Anal Hershiser receives:
SP Ervin Santana LAA
7th rounder
I like this move for both teams. Oddly, I actually thought about basically this exact trade between these two teams while I was mowing the lawn Sunday (I have three acres – it takes a while). For Andrew, I offered many deals in exchange for Haren that had me giving up much less, so good for him for waiting it out to cash in. He did big time, as a second first rounder is a huge advantage. The number of swings and misses in the first round is usually minimal (Crawford and Reynolds were the only real flops so far and both have been injuries, while Latos and Kendrick have certainly underperformed), while the number of hits in the 24th is basically nil (I believe Hochevar is the only one that has not been dropped at some point – and I really have no clue why Jason still owns him). A 17-round upgrade is awesome, but there is also potential value in ESantana. He has been up and down all year, but he’s been very good at times and was great down the stretch for me last year, so there could be additional value to be had here.
For Brian, I applaud the move and obviously think it greatly improves his chances. Haren is a legit number two behind Greinke. With his other trade, Brian suddenly has a deep rotation that is considerably more stable and places him squarely in the top tier of teams. The nice part about acquiring someone like Haren is that he would need to do pretty bad to not be considered a keeper for somebody next year. This means Brian can either keep him as a great SP duo or deal him in the offseason for what could be a considerable upgrade, which could cut into that 17-round downgrade. I grabbed Hamels last year in exchange for my top pick (ultimately used for Berkman) and have no regrets. Could be a game-changer.
Monday, June 11, 2012
Week 11 Power Rankings
1. One Nut Wonders – While it’s counter-intuitive to bump up a team that posted a 30/6/15/4/.320 line on offense, Jason retakes the top spot due primarily to Casten’s pitching. Weaver, Wilson, Shields, Beckett, Moore, and Samardzija represent an excellent 1-6 staff digression going forward, despite some inconsistency. The offensive off week is a red flag, but we’ll consider it an outlier for now. But make no mistake about it, the top tier got a little bigger in the last week with the moves of Moose and Montezuma, and the top five could change dramatically in the coming weeks.
2. Grumpy Munchkins – Casten’s staff has officially become worrisome. Beachy and Morrow have been fantastic, but Neise, Garza, and Hanson have been just pretty good, you never know which Scherzer or Norris will show up, Lilly and Garcia are injured, three rosters spots are dedicated to players either injured or in the minors (though I do like Medlen), and he’s 5-4-1 this season in saves. The offense was great this week as it has been with HR and RBI, but he lost OBP and SB, and won R by just one run against Troy. This team is still a monster, but is considerably more slayable.
3. Clayton & The King – Pitching was the key to victory here, with an excellent 72k/3.36/.99/7qs line, which helped stave off a nice performance from Pierce’s staff and end the week 9-1. The only loss was undeserving with seven QS, which was tied for second most in the league (behind Pierce’s eight). The top three teams are tight as far as I’m concerned and Russ could be on the move up if his pitching continues to produce like this. MHarrison has been on a nice run, Russ just needs Wainright to be his former self. Offensively, the 39/10/35/8/.349 line was as balanced as it comes.
4. Moose is Loose – What I didn’t like about Brian’s team was fixed in the matter of a morning - this morning in fact. He gave up a lot, as he threatened to do, but he acquired the stability the team had been missing in Haren, Vogelsong (much better than I anticipated), and Cahill. He also rids himself of ESantana, who was just too up and down for this team. A first rounder was a lot to give up for Haren, but an upper echelon #2 was the biggest need, so it’s hard to argue with the strategy. Besides, he can either keep Haren or trade him for a pick in the off season that should make up for some of the 17-round downgrade he absorbed. Good week for his current staff as well, with a 3.36/1.23 line, on his way to a tough 5-4 victory over Chris. Nice bump here.
5. Montezuma’s Revenge – The heroics of Homer Bailey on Sunday night was the difference between what could’ve been a 3-6 and 7-3 week. Pitching totals were uncharacteristically off this week (though the 52 ks were enough to remain undefeated in the category), but enough to edge out Dagan in what could be a key outcome considering it was our only regular season matchup. I drop myself below Brian because, while we both made trades to help our teams considerably, I think my offense has more to prove with the new players than his pitching staff does with his additions. Saying that, 43 RBIs for the week was second most in the league and a good sign going forward.
6. Ring of Fire – Dagan was up 6-3 going into Sunday, but ultimately fell to the Revenge in a close matchup. While he was close in the pitching categories this week, there’s cause for concern with Wandy and Anibal both struggling. Without a true ace, he really needs Latos and Cueto to be consistently good and for Masterson and Hughes to have more good days than bad going forward. His sluggers are productive though (Ortiz, Goldshmidt, Votto) and the offense could be on the verge of blowing up, with Zobrist and Bruce both improving as of late. Once Kemp returns, the offense could be the best in the league.
7. Donkey Punchers – Another week with mixed results. Pitching was fantastic again with 75/3.24/1.21/7, but the .275 obp and 26 runs are pretty dreadful, while 2 sbs won’t win you the category very often. But 11 homers is very good and 30 RBIs is middle of the pack. It was probably a good idea to move on from IDavis, who was a massive disappointment, and Revere was a smart pickup, giving Chris instant credibility in steals. LoMo, Dan Murphy, and Viciedo had horrible weeks, combining for a OBP around .150, which makes it difficult to win. Lowrie has been huge and there’s enough offensive talent to move up.
8. Prestige Worldwide – It’s official: something has to change for Lars to turn this thing around. Unlike some past weeks, when he was deserving of more wins than he ended up with, Prestige hardly deserved the one win he got this week. When Cameron Maybin is supplying your power for the week, something is wrong. And Lars’ 5-23-2 record the past three weeks indicates something is clearly wrong. Perhaps the return of Longoria will make a difference – it at very least will allow him to drop PAlvarez (5/0/1/0/.265 the past two weeks), who is really just taking up space at this point.
9. Keepin It Real – Pierce went 1-9 this week despite being within shouting distance in most of the categories. While he announced he was out of it and looking to 2013, he hasn’t acted like it in terms of major transactions. The Darvish trade actually didn’t significantly hurt him for 2012 and there’s still plenty to like about the current team. It’s tough to say whether its good enough to make up 24 games to get into a playoff spot though, but if you believe in karma than Pierce has a lot of good luck coming his way (not to mention Ellsbury eventually). Or, he’s just being paying up for the fortune he gained in last year’s run to a championship. A lot has to go right.
10. Cowhide Joyride – Offensively, things look good, with a nice 38/9/40/.368 line, but no amount of quality relief pitching can make up for a starting rotation that yielded no QS and that all averaged ERA above 6.00. Would’ve never thought that at the beginning of the season with names like Johan, Bumgarner, Lincecum, and Liriano. Perhaps the addition of IKennedy will make a difference, but his numbers have been disappointing as well this season. The trade heard round the world definitely gives Dave hope going forward, but I’ll need to see better pitching numbers and a bit more offense outside ASoriano (7/4/9/.400 this week – also the “feel” pick of the year, with a 17/12/23 line since Dave picked him up on May 15th) to move Dave up further.
11. Urban Achievers – I really like the trade with Moose as I think he got the best player in BUpton along with a six-round upgrade. It kind of eats away at the middle of his surprising rotation, but CC, Gio, Burnett, and Bass are good parts and I think Cashner could be like what Luebke was for the Pads (and his fantasy teams) down the stretch. Dan does seem to have an awful lot of pretty productive OFs though with Upton, Choo, Young, Jennings, LaHair, Francoeur, Scott, and ACraig, so perhaps another deal will be in the works. Either way, with a roster like this, I like any move that improves overall talent and I think the departures of Cahill/Vogelsong will not hurt Dan as much as it will help Brian.
12. The Angry Pirates – Same story here as last week. The offense is good enough to compete this year, even with the trade off Cruz and Prado to Montezuma, as Lawrie and Kubel are no slouches either. The pitching, though, gets quite a bit worse with the drop from JJohnson to GFloyd. Still, at this point, I like strategy of throwing out 12 mid- to low-level starters and hoping to grab the counting stats, knowing your offense is good enough to compete each week, while also building for the future. And I just might’ve been wrong about Trumbo – with his position eligibility, he’s been one of the most valuable players in the first half.
13. Anal Hershiser – With the Haren trade, Andrew is officially is 2013 mode and is making the right moves to prepare for it. Getting a first round pick – a full 17-round upgrade – for him was a great trade. And he actually got what can be a pretty good pitcher in ESantana, who could yield another pick in the future. Picking up Hultzen and WMyers were a nice forward-looking pickups, though they’d have to be pretty productive once he comes up to justify being kept. There’s lots of other parts to potentially deal off as well and build a strong core for next year.
14. Billy Chapel – Troy’s offense would’ve beaten up on a lot of teams this week at 31/10/37/3/.352, but there was nothing in the way of pitching. It will be interesting to see how Reddick and Headley end the year and are valued going into 2013. Troy has some quality guys to keep, but there are certainly areas to upgrade and picks to be had with the talent currently on his roster. It would be advisable to liquidate assets as soon as possible, try to gain further assets before the deadline via the wire, then liquidate again. Enough early picks could mean a turnaround in 2013… unless Dave wins it all, I suppose.
2. Grumpy Munchkins – Casten’s staff has officially become worrisome. Beachy and Morrow have been fantastic, but Neise, Garza, and Hanson have been just pretty good, you never know which Scherzer or Norris will show up, Lilly and Garcia are injured, three rosters spots are dedicated to players either injured or in the minors (though I do like Medlen), and he’s 5-4-1 this season in saves. The offense was great this week as it has been with HR and RBI, but he lost OBP and SB, and won R by just one run against Troy. This team is still a monster, but is considerably more slayable.
3. Clayton & The King – Pitching was the key to victory here, with an excellent 72k/3.36/.99/7qs line, which helped stave off a nice performance from Pierce’s staff and end the week 9-1. The only loss was undeserving with seven QS, which was tied for second most in the league (behind Pierce’s eight). The top three teams are tight as far as I’m concerned and Russ could be on the move up if his pitching continues to produce like this. MHarrison has been on a nice run, Russ just needs Wainright to be his former self. Offensively, the 39/10/35/8/.349 line was as balanced as it comes.
4. Moose is Loose – What I didn’t like about Brian’s team was fixed in the matter of a morning - this morning in fact. He gave up a lot, as he threatened to do, but he acquired the stability the team had been missing in Haren, Vogelsong (much better than I anticipated), and Cahill. He also rids himself of ESantana, who was just too up and down for this team. A first rounder was a lot to give up for Haren, but an upper echelon #2 was the biggest need, so it’s hard to argue with the strategy. Besides, he can either keep Haren or trade him for a pick in the off season that should make up for some of the 17-round downgrade he absorbed. Good week for his current staff as well, with a 3.36/1.23 line, on his way to a tough 5-4 victory over Chris. Nice bump here.
5. Montezuma’s Revenge – The heroics of Homer Bailey on Sunday night was the difference between what could’ve been a 3-6 and 7-3 week. Pitching totals were uncharacteristically off this week (though the 52 ks were enough to remain undefeated in the category), but enough to edge out Dagan in what could be a key outcome considering it was our only regular season matchup. I drop myself below Brian because, while we both made trades to help our teams considerably, I think my offense has more to prove with the new players than his pitching staff does with his additions. Saying that, 43 RBIs for the week was second most in the league and a good sign going forward.
6. Ring of Fire – Dagan was up 6-3 going into Sunday, but ultimately fell to the Revenge in a close matchup. While he was close in the pitching categories this week, there’s cause for concern with Wandy and Anibal both struggling. Without a true ace, he really needs Latos and Cueto to be consistently good and for Masterson and Hughes to have more good days than bad going forward. His sluggers are productive though (Ortiz, Goldshmidt, Votto) and the offense could be on the verge of blowing up, with Zobrist and Bruce both improving as of late. Once Kemp returns, the offense could be the best in the league.
7. Donkey Punchers – Another week with mixed results. Pitching was fantastic again with 75/3.24/1.21/7, but the .275 obp and 26 runs are pretty dreadful, while 2 sbs won’t win you the category very often. But 11 homers is very good and 30 RBIs is middle of the pack. It was probably a good idea to move on from IDavis, who was a massive disappointment, and Revere was a smart pickup, giving Chris instant credibility in steals. LoMo, Dan Murphy, and Viciedo had horrible weeks, combining for a OBP around .150, which makes it difficult to win. Lowrie has been huge and there’s enough offensive talent to move up.
8. Prestige Worldwide – It’s official: something has to change for Lars to turn this thing around. Unlike some past weeks, when he was deserving of more wins than he ended up with, Prestige hardly deserved the one win he got this week. When Cameron Maybin is supplying your power for the week, something is wrong. And Lars’ 5-23-2 record the past three weeks indicates something is clearly wrong. Perhaps the return of Longoria will make a difference – it at very least will allow him to drop PAlvarez (5/0/1/0/.265 the past two weeks), who is really just taking up space at this point.
9. Keepin It Real – Pierce went 1-9 this week despite being within shouting distance in most of the categories. While he announced he was out of it and looking to 2013, he hasn’t acted like it in terms of major transactions. The Darvish trade actually didn’t significantly hurt him for 2012 and there’s still plenty to like about the current team. It’s tough to say whether its good enough to make up 24 games to get into a playoff spot though, but if you believe in karma than Pierce has a lot of good luck coming his way (not to mention Ellsbury eventually). Or, he’s just being paying up for the fortune he gained in last year’s run to a championship. A lot has to go right.
10. Cowhide Joyride – Offensively, things look good, with a nice 38/9/40/.368 line, but no amount of quality relief pitching can make up for a starting rotation that yielded no QS and that all averaged ERA above 6.00. Would’ve never thought that at the beginning of the season with names like Johan, Bumgarner, Lincecum, and Liriano. Perhaps the addition of IKennedy will make a difference, but his numbers have been disappointing as well this season. The trade heard round the world definitely gives Dave hope going forward, but I’ll need to see better pitching numbers and a bit more offense outside ASoriano (7/4/9/.400 this week – also the “feel” pick of the year, with a 17/12/23 line since Dave picked him up on May 15th) to move Dave up further.
11. Urban Achievers – I really like the trade with Moose as I think he got the best player in BUpton along with a six-round upgrade. It kind of eats away at the middle of his surprising rotation, but CC, Gio, Burnett, and Bass are good parts and I think Cashner could be like what Luebke was for the Pads (and his fantasy teams) down the stretch. Dan does seem to have an awful lot of pretty productive OFs though with Upton, Choo, Young, Jennings, LaHair, Francoeur, Scott, and ACraig, so perhaps another deal will be in the works. Either way, with a roster like this, I like any move that improves overall talent and I think the departures of Cahill/Vogelsong will not hurt Dan as much as it will help Brian.
12. The Angry Pirates – Same story here as last week. The offense is good enough to compete this year, even with the trade off Cruz and Prado to Montezuma, as Lawrie and Kubel are no slouches either. The pitching, though, gets quite a bit worse with the drop from JJohnson to GFloyd. Still, at this point, I like strategy of throwing out 12 mid- to low-level starters and hoping to grab the counting stats, knowing your offense is good enough to compete each week, while also building for the future. And I just might’ve been wrong about Trumbo – with his position eligibility, he’s been one of the most valuable players in the first half.
13. Anal Hershiser – With the Haren trade, Andrew is officially is 2013 mode and is making the right moves to prepare for it. Getting a first round pick – a full 17-round upgrade – for him was a great trade. And he actually got what can be a pretty good pitcher in ESantana, who could yield another pick in the future. Picking up Hultzen and WMyers were a nice forward-looking pickups, though they’d have to be pretty productive once he comes up to justify being kept. There’s lots of other parts to potentially deal off as well and build a strong core for next year.
14. Billy Chapel – Troy’s offense would’ve beaten up on a lot of teams this week at 31/10/37/3/.352, but there was nothing in the way of pitching. It will be interesting to see how Reddick and Headley end the year and are valued going into 2013. Troy has some quality guys to keep, but there are certainly areas to upgrade and picks to be had with the talent currently on his roster. It would be advisable to liquidate assets as soon as possible, try to gain further assets before the deadline via the wire, then liquidate again. Enough early picks could mean a turnaround in 2013… unless Dave wins it all, I suppose.
Friday, June 8, 2012
Trade Review: Montezuma and Angry Pirates
Montezumas Revenge receives:
OF Nelson Cruz TEX
SP Josh Johnson MIA
3B/OF Martin Prado ATL
15th rounder
The Angry Pirates receives:
3B Brett Lawrie TOR
OF Jason Kubel ARI
SP Gavin Floyd CHW
9th rounder
I’m a little insulted my trade didn’t provoke the same outrage as I thought I did pretty well here, but I guess the bottom line is perception versus reality. Lawrie is a 22yo with incredible upside and mediocre results, while Reddick is a 25yo overachiever. I guess the pick has something to do with it too. The ironic thing is I offered Lawrie to Troy for Kennedy, ARod and Willingham and he declined … oh well.
Anyhow, though Kyle is not close to being out of the playoff race, he’s looking at his team (his pitching staff, to be precise) and preparing primarily for 2013 while trying to remain competitive this year. He’s got a nice (extremely young) core now with Stanton, Freeman, Lawrie, Ackley, Starlin, and perhaps Trumbo and two picks in each of the 9th, 12th, and 13th now. I expect he’s not done as well since he’s been one of the most active managers this year – more active than, dare I say, Jason. Where the hell did he go by the way? It’s been quiet. Too quiet…
Anyhow, Floyd actually has better overall numbers than Johnson but JJ has pitched much better recently, while Floyd started strong but has sucked, and obviously doesn’t have the upside of JJ. I actually still like Kubel and expect his power numbers to improve, but the glaring weakness in my team is power and Cruz is certainly an upgrade.
It was tough to give up Lawrie. He’s intense, fast, powerful, young, plays 3B, and has the potential to contribute in five categories. That said, I always play for this year and he was one of two large, only mildly productive chips I had to play with (Hosmer being the other one) and I think this helps my chances significantly for this year. I do, however, take on a hefty amount of injury risk with Cruz and Johnson, but I would’ve been willing to pay a lot more if I knew these guys were going to stay healthy the entire season. Prado is a nice, steady piece who is solid enough in three categories and excellent in two (OBP and R), with some flexibility to deal with cold streaks of some of my more streaky guys like Pena, Swisher, and Aramis. I also think I have a team capable of winning it all and it only cost me three pick downgrades. The rotation of Hamels, Peavy, JMcDonald, Sale, JJohnson, CLewis, Capuano, Hudson, Oswalt, and HBailey could finally take me to the promise land.
OF Nelson Cruz TEX
SP Josh Johnson MIA
3B/OF Martin Prado ATL
15th rounder
The Angry Pirates receives:
3B Brett Lawrie TOR
OF Jason Kubel ARI
SP Gavin Floyd CHW
9th rounder
I’m a little insulted my trade didn’t provoke the same outrage as I thought I did pretty well here, but I guess the bottom line is perception versus reality. Lawrie is a 22yo with incredible upside and mediocre results, while Reddick is a 25yo overachiever. I guess the pick has something to do with it too. The ironic thing is I offered Lawrie to Troy for Kennedy, ARod and Willingham and he declined … oh well.
Anyhow, though Kyle is not close to being out of the playoff race, he’s looking at his team (his pitching staff, to be precise) and preparing primarily for 2013 while trying to remain competitive this year. He’s got a nice (extremely young) core now with Stanton, Freeman, Lawrie, Ackley, Starlin, and perhaps Trumbo and two picks in each of the 9th, 12th, and 13th now. I expect he’s not done as well since he’s been one of the most active managers this year – more active than, dare I say, Jason. Where the hell did he go by the way? It’s been quiet. Too quiet…
Anyhow, Floyd actually has better overall numbers than Johnson but JJ has pitched much better recently, while Floyd started strong but has sucked, and obviously doesn’t have the upside of JJ. I actually still like Kubel and expect his power numbers to improve, but the glaring weakness in my team is power and Cruz is certainly an upgrade.
It was tough to give up Lawrie. He’s intense, fast, powerful, young, plays 3B, and has the potential to contribute in five categories. That said, I always play for this year and he was one of two large, only mildly productive chips I had to play with (Hosmer being the other one) and I think this helps my chances significantly for this year. I do, however, take on a hefty amount of injury risk with Cruz and Johnson, but I would’ve been willing to pay a lot more if I knew these guys were going to stay healthy the entire season. Prado is a nice, steady piece who is solid enough in three categories and excellent in two (OBP and R), with some flexibility to deal with cold streaks of some of my more streaky guys like Pena, Swisher, and Aramis. I also think I have a team capable of winning it all and it only cost me three pick downgrades. The rotation of Hamels, Peavy, JMcDonald, Sale, JJohnson, CLewis, Capuano, Hudson, Oswalt, and HBailey could finally take me to the promise land.
Trade Review: Cowhide and Bily Chapel
Cowhide Joyride receives:
3B Alex Rodriguez NYY
1B/OF Kendrys Morales LAA
SP Ian Kennedy ARI
Billy Chapel receives:
OF Josh Reddick OAK
3B Chase Headley SD
RP Jason Motte STL
This one is a head scratcher, or perhaps a head slamming against the waller... whatever you want to do to your head, this one is clearly a win for Dave. The crux of the issue here is at what point in the season do you officially pass judgment on a player?
This varies wildly depending on the owner. Some, like Pierce and Chris, make very few moves and are quite methodical about it all – never getting too hyped or too down, opting instead to stick with their initial inclination when they drafted. There may be an element of relative apathy depending on the person, but nonetheless, the styles differ greatly from others, like myself who go through all my transactions eventually. At some point, you either believe in the player or you don’t.
So, is one-third of a major league baseball season enough to pass judgement? If so, Troy wins here because all of the guys he is acquiring are ranked higher than their counterparts. But if this deal was made before the 2012 draft, there would have been riots. The names just don’t line up. On one side is historical results, on the other side is a collection of upstarts. It’s hard to ignore the names.
It all comes down to what you think of Josh Reddick. Perhaps, with most of us very familiar with the AL East, we have a negative view of him because before May of 2012, he was just a former prospect who never amounted to much other than a decent fill-in in 2011, who was shipped off to Oakland to be part of a platoon in a very weak lineup. But he is not without a bit of pedigree. As recently as 2010, he was Baseball America’s #3 prospect in the Red Sox system – ahead of guys like Kalish, Fuentes, Rizzo, Iglesias, and just behind Kelly and Westmoreland. So there’s an element of expectations that had been unfulfilled until recently – at the spacious O.co Coliseum no less. Take the current rate of production and extend it out 600 abs and you get a line of 96R, 38HR, 79RBI, 16STL, .333OBP – quite a line and certainly keepe- worthy. Realistic? Not really, but what if he gets close and ARod is 38 next season, Morales never recovers (a possibility), and Kennedy reverts back to what he was pre-2011 (many expected significant digression this year)? In which case, Reddick is the only keeper in the bunch.
I don’t think it will happen. Reddick’s one-time prospect status was, in large part, due to his athletic prowess and rifle arm. He never projected big power numbers and I doubt it will continue this season – 90/25/80/15, sure that could happen. Headley could probably could do that too (maybe 20 hrs though). Motte is really useless for Troy at this point I think, but he could serve as trade bait later.
With ARod, Morales, and Kennedy, Dave is buying low on all three and I like it. Morales I like the least just because of playing time ($13M man VWells will be back eventually and Trumbo can’t be sat) and production thus far (though somehow he not only got eligibility at 1B but is also available as an OF option). The thing with ARod, whose the biggest name here, is just the age. It doesn’t matter how much juice he has rolling through his veins, at some point players just fall off. He’ll be 37 next month and only played 99 games last season. Might be this season, might be next, but regardless, it’s coming. And right now, given his decent and not great production so far, the name has more value than the player at this point. Kennedy was almost a keeper for me, so I certainly had faith last year’s numbers were not a fluke. His last two outings have been very good and he reportedly made some adjustments, so he could come back and have a year similar to 2011, when he was a top 10 pitcher. That said, he surprised many last year and advanced statistics indicated some luck was involved and regression was expected, though most experts certainly felt he was a top 20 SP. So far, he has not been.
If I had to rank keepers involved here, it’d be 1: Kennedy, 2: ARod, 3: Reddick, 4: Morales (UTIL only next year), 5: Headley. If you look at the overall ranks based on current statistics of the players Dave gave up, he lost out big time. But I think most of us will agree the threesome he received will ultimately prove to be more valuable this year and next.
3B Alex Rodriguez NYY
1B/OF Kendrys Morales LAA
SP Ian Kennedy ARI
Billy Chapel receives:
OF Josh Reddick OAK
3B Chase Headley SD
RP Jason Motte STL
This one is a head scratcher, or perhaps a head slamming against the waller... whatever you want to do to your head, this one is clearly a win for Dave. The crux of the issue here is at what point in the season do you officially pass judgment on a player?
This varies wildly depending on the owner. Some, like Pierce and Chris, make very few moves and are quite methodical about it all – never getting too hyped or too down, opting instead to stick with their initial inclination when they drafted. There may be an element of relative apathy depending on the person, but nonetheless, the styles differ greatly from others, like myself who go through all my transactions eventually. At some point, you either believe in the player or you don’t.
So, is one-third of a major league baseball season enough to pass judgement? If so, Troy wins here because all of the guys he is acquiring are ranked higher than their counterparts. But if this deal was made before the 2012 draft, there would have been riots. The names just don’t line up. On one side is historical results, on the other side is a collection of upstarts. It’s hard to ignore the names.
It all comes down to what you think of Josh Reddick. Perhaps, with most of us very familiar with the AL East, we have a negative view of him because before May of 2012, he was just a former prospect who never amounted to much other than a decent fill-in in 2011, who was shipped off to Oakland to be part of a platoon in a very weak lineup. But he is not without a bit of pedigree. As recently as 2010, he was Baseball America’s #3 prospect in the Red Sox system – ahead of guys like Kalish, Fuentes, Rizzo, Iglesias, and just behind Kelly and Westmoreland. So there’s an element of expectations that had been unfulfilled until recently – at the spacious O.co Coliseum no less. Take the current rate of production and extend it out 600 abs and you get a line of 96R, 38HR, 79RBI, 16STL, .333OBP – quite a line and certainly keepe- worthy. Realistic? Not really, but what if he gets close and ARod is 38 next season, Morales never recovers (a possibility), and Kennedy reverts back to what he was pre-2011 (many expected significant digression this year)? In which case, Reddick is the only keeper in the bunch.
I don’t think it will happen. Reddick’s one-time prospect status was, in large part, due to his athletic prowess and rifle arm. He never projected big power numbers and I doubt it will continue this season – 90/25/80/15, sure that could happen. Headley could probably could do that too (maybe 20 hrs though). Motte is really useless for Troy at this point I think, but he could serve as trade bait later.
With ARod, Morales, and Kennedy, Dave is buying low on all three and I like it. Morales I like the least just because of playing time ($13M man VWells will be back eventually and Trumbo can’t be sat) and production thus far (though somehow he not only got eligibility at 1B but is also available as an OF option). The thing with ARod, whose the biggest name here, is just the age. It doesn’t matter how much juice he has rolling through his veins, at some point players just fall off. He’ll be 37 next month and only played 99 games last season. Might be this season, might be next, but regardless, it’s coming. And right now, given his decent and not great production so far, the name has more value than the player at this point. Kennedy was almost a keeper for me, so I certainly had faith last year’s numbers were not a fluke. His last two outings have been very good and he reportedly made some adjustments, so he could come back and have a year similar to 2011, when he was a top 10 pitcher. That said, he surprised many last year and advanced statistics indicated some luck was involved and regression was expected, though most experts certainly felt he was a top 20 SP. So far, he has not been.
If I had to rank keepers involved here, it’d be 1: Kennedy, 2: ARod, 3: Reddick, 4: Morales (UTIL only next year), 5: Headley. If you look at the overall ranks based on current statistics of the players Dave gave up, he lost out big time. But I think most of us will agree the threesome he received will ultimately prove to be more valuable this year and next.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Trade Review: Cowhide and Keepin
Cowhide Joyride receives:
RP Aroldis Chapman CIN
12th rounder
Keepin it REAL… receives:
SP Yu Darvish TEX
OF Alex Rios CHW
9th rounder
Sorry it took me so long to do this. Don’t mistake the delay for lack of interest because this is by far the most interesting trade thus far this season, one where I have no clue who the winner will be and we may not know until just before the 2013 draft.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the deal is the impact it has on Dave’s roster, which now features more relievers than starters – a strategy not yet utilized in H&T, though I have heard of such a thing before. It’s always interesting to see how teams manage the number of players on the offensive bench, starting rotation, and bullpen. You have extremes in each instances – some have five bench guys, some have none and the number of starters can range from five to 13. A general rule of thumb is to take the Patriots approach – use the talent you have to maximize your ability to win. Chapman is interesting in that he’s just a reliever at the moment (one who happens to have not let up one run and is striking out an insane 16.1 per 9), but very well could be a starter heading into 2013. This is a key factor is the overall value of this trade from Dave’s perspective. In 2012, the league finally came to its senses and no one kept a relief pitcher – not Mo, not even Kimbrel, who had one of the best fantasy seasons from a reliever in history. If Aroldis is a reliever in 2013, his keeper value is basically nil – I don’t care if he strikes out 140; I’d still rather have an obvious nonkeeper like Ryan Dempster. You get more Ks, QS, and he won’t kill your rates, while 70ips from a reliever won’t help your rates it enormously. But if he’s a starter, as he should be, he could K 300 – and that’s insanely valuable.
The other considerable factor here is Darvish. His numbers are quite good thus far, especially considering he’s new to the country and the league. Stretch out the current production rates over 200 IP and you have someone around 20QS/ 3.34ERA/ 1.46 WHIP/ 220K – very good, but not fantastic. There were certainly guys who pitched that well or better in 2011 who were not kept in 2012 (Cain, ASanchez, Garza, Bumgarner, CWilson, etc). That said, there are few with as high of an upside as Darvish, and you can certainly anticipate improvement from the 25yo over time. The bottom line will be whether he improves or digresses over the course of the season. If he improves, Pierce has a sure keeper to hold on to or deal (he could, perhaps, deal Lester or CLee for a hefty ransom of picks). If he digresses and ends with an ERA over 4.00 and can’t get past the 20-QS threshold (among kept pitchers for 2012, only Lester and Gio had more than 30 starts and converted less than 20 QSs; both had 19), then he would be a tough guy to hold on to. If he’s just a mid-rotation guy and Chapman is a starter with K numbers not seen since Randy Johnson and Pedro, then it’s a clear win for Dave.
The pick exchange is interesting as well, as it may only be three rounds, but it’s an important three rounds. For the 9th round in 2012, we had a range of Corey Hart/ Anibal Sanchez/ Billy Butler/ JJ Hardy/ Brandon Morrow types for a ceiling, and Ichiro/ Ike Davis/ Brett Gardner/ Jimmy Rollins for the basement. For the 12th round, there were a few all-star types like Dexter Fowler, Wandy, Dempster and Cueto and a lot of flops – Lind, MMinor, Liriano, Mo, Feliz, etc. So while a three-round upgrade makes little difference when you’re drafting in the 16th versus the 19th, additional draft picks in the first three rounds is a considerable advantage. Not to mention, Pierce has a suddenly productive Alex Rios to deal off at some point.
In the end, far too early to declare a winner here and much will have to do with what the owners and the players make of the opportunity.
RP Aroldis Chapman CIN
12th rounder
Keepin it REAL… receives:
SP Yu Darvish TEX
OF Alex Rios CHW
9th rounder
Sorry it took me so long to do this. Don’t mistake the delay for lack of interest because this is by far the most interesting trade thus far this season, one where I have no clue who the winner will be and we may not know until just before the 2013 draft.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the deal is the impact it has on Dave’s roster, which now features more relievers than starters – a strategy not yet utilized in H&T, though I have heard of such a thing before. It’s always interesting to see how teams manage the number of players on the offensive bench, starting rotation, and bullpen. You have extremes in each instances – some have five bench guys, some have none and the number of starters can range from five to 13. A general rule of thumb is to take the Patriots approach – use the talent you have to maximize your ability to win. Chapman is interesting in that he’s just a reliever at the moment (one who happens to have not let up one run and is striking out an insane 16.1 per 9), but very well could be a starter heading into 2013. This is a key factor is the overall value of this trade from Dave’s perspective. In 2012, the league finally came to its senses and no one kept a relief pitcher – not Mo, not even Kimbrel, who had one of the best fantasy seasons from a reliever in history. If Aroldis is a reliever in 2013, his keeper value is basically nil – I don’t care if he strikes out 140; I’d still rather have an obvious nonkeeper like Ryan Dempster. You get more Ks, QS, and he won’t kill your rates, while 70ips from a reliever won’t help your rates it enormously. But if he’s a starter, as he should be, he could K 300 – and that’s insanely valuable.
The other considerable factor here is Darvish. His numbers are quite good thus far, especially considering he’s new to the country and the league. Stretch out the current production rates over 200 IP and you have someone around 20QS/ 3.34ERA/ 1.46 WHIP/ 220K – very good, but not fantastic. There were certainly guys who pitched that well or better in 2011 who were not kept in 2012 (Cain, ASanchez, Garza, Bumgarner, CWilson, etc). That said, there are few with as high of an upside as Darvish, and you can certainly anticipate improvement from the 25yo over time. The bottom line will be whether he improves or digresses over the course of the season. If he improves, Pierce has a sure keeper to hold on to or deal (he could, perhaps, deal Lester or CLee for a hefty ransom of picks). If he digresses and ends with an ERA over 4.00 and can’t get past the 20-QS threshold (among kept pitchers for 2012, only Lester and Gio had more than 30 starts and converted less than 20 QSs; both had 19), then he would be a tough guy to hold on to. If he’s just a mid-rotation guy and Chapman is a starter with K numbers not seen since Randy Johnson and Pedro, then it’s a clear win for Dave.
The pick exchange is interesting as well, as it may only be three rounds, but it’s an important three rounds. For the 9th round in 2012, we had a range of Corey Hart/ Anibal Sanchez/ Billy Butler/ JJ Hardy/ Brandon Morrow types for a ceiling, and Ichiro/ Ike Davis/ Brett Gardner/ Jimmy Rollins for the basement. For the 12th round, there were a few all-star types like Dexter Fowler, Wandy, Dempster and Cueto and a lot of flops – Lind, MMinor, Liriano, Mo, Feliz, etc. So while a three-round upgrade makes little difference when you’re drafting in the 16th versus the 19th, additional draft picks in the first three rounds is a considerable advantage. Not to mention, Pierce has a suddenly productive Alex Rios to deal off at some point.
In the end, far too early to declare a winner here and much will have to do with what the owners and the players make of the opportunity.
Monday, June 4, 2012
Week 9 Power Rankings
2. One Nut Wonders – Andrew didn’t put up much of a fight on offense, but Jason still put up good all around numbers 30/9/31/6/.395. Pitching was suspect with a 4.83/1.52 and only 4 QS, but he grabbed saves and Ks for the win. Beckett has proven to be a nice pickup and Weaver will likely be back once his 15 days are up. Shields has been off (and playing, frankly, as he had prior to 2011), MMoore has not performed as expected, while Lohse is coming back to Earth. Three of his four closers may eventually lose their jobs as well, so he might have to make a move to continue to compete there.
3. Clayton & The King – While there were some categories that were close, one could have predicted an even sweep by Russ’s offense (average rank: 2.8) and my pitching this week (average rank 2.0). It was 5-5 after Thursday and the outcome didn’t budge from there. For someone who loves pitching, it wasn’t very good this week, with a horrendous 7.31/1.66/2 qs. The problem was his top guys stunk (Kershaw, Felix, and Wainright all had eras over 7) and there’s just not enough behind him, with MHarrison picking up his only QSs. JZimmerman has been good this season, but DHolland has proven to be quite volatile and his 43.00 era was quite the headwind. Still, Russ has three of the best picks from the draft in Trout, Kipnis, and De Aza.
4. Montezuma’s Revenge – The offense has improved, but still wasn’t good enough to grab any of the O categories this week. Hosmer, ARam, and Swisher all had pretty good weeks, so there’s hope for future production. As usual, pitching is carrying the team and may get stronger with THudson trade and ROswalt on the way. JMcDonald is pitching like a keeper (2.14 era) and CSale’s 23k/1.65/0.73/2qs week has proven to be well worth the draft pick it took to get him. Might have to deal some pitching off to get better on O, as there was more than enough to go around this week (85 vs. 45 ks).
5. Ring of Fire – As previously mentioned, Dagan was a tough luck loser this week despite being within shouting distance in five categories that he lost to Brandon (though neither of them should get a win for eras over 5.10 and whips over 1.45). Goldy and Youk are coming around, while Votto has made up for early season mediocrity, and Papi has been productive throughout. Latos and Masterson have been disappointments. At fifth in the standings, his statistical performance has appeared to have caught up to his actual place in the standings.
6. Prestige Worldwide – It’s hard not to feel bad for Lars as no team has a bigger differential between the statistical rankings and the actual standings (5th in stats, 10th in standings). He had another unlucky week, falling to 3-5 to Kyle, though his 32/9/35/7 and 3.41/1.09 were good enough numbers to at least split. He’s also doing this without Longo and Gardner, and Lucroy was a tough loss. It’s not even half way over, so there’s still plenty of time and talent to turn it around, but it’s troubling that he hasn’t managed to win a matchup since Week 2.
7. Moose is Loose – Brian won his fourth straight and has grabbed six of the nine matchups so far, though the three losses have come to three of the better teams he’s come across (Grumpy, Clayton, and Ring). Pitching was quite good with 2.47/1.20, but three of his wins were entirely the result of a fortunate matchup, as 6 hrs, 26 rbis, and 4 steals won’t provide wins most weeks. But the poor performance was uncharacteristic for the group he has, so this might just be an outlier. So, no movement here despite Brian’s place in the standings, and Chris’ bunch is gaining steam.
8. Donkey Punchers – Things appear to be coming together for Chris, who had good-great outputs in seven of the ten categories (0 steals, 0 saves, and 46 ks with 11 starters and no relievers is kinda bad). The lineup was good top to bottom, though you’d expect a week in which JWeeks gets on base more than half the time to yield at least one steal. There was quality production across the board and it will be interesting to see how he matches up with Moose this week. The offense could be even better, but the pitching strategy of stocking up on starters has been flawed because he’s got three roster spots tied up with guys who are injured or in the minors. This leaves him with nine starters, which is comparable to most teams that also have relievers, thus negating any quantity advantage.
9. Cowhide Joyride – Dave’s squad did what they needed to do against last place Billy Chapel, effectively creaming Troy 9-1 and nearly achieving a full sweep. The most encouraging sign for Dave though is that he would’ve matched up well with most teams this week, particularly with that sparkling 1.85/1.08 fueled by Santana’s no-no. He’s taking an approach never seen before in this league with more relievers than starters. It’ll be tough to win Ks and QS, but with the right starters, he could be competitive and those relievers should help control the rates. I’ll be interested to see if he can at least split with Jason – then he might just have something.
10. The Angry Pirates – Kyle is quietly creeping up the standings and has put together a 36-30 record after starting the year 3-17. His 36/13/39/7/.371 was good enough to beat most teams and he beat Lars 5-3. Of course, pitching wasn’t pretty with 6.41/1.54, but you can go a long way with a good offense and enough pitching to compete in counting categories anyway. Trumbo has been key and has got the playing time to produce, getting that OBP to a much more respectable level (though you wonder if VWells’ return will cut into time). I expected more than what MMontero and DAckley have provided thus far, so there may be improvement coming. And hopefully Freeman will be able to see again sometime soon.
11. Keepin It Real – Unlike some other weeks in which Pierce has just been unlucky, his team’s production was deservedly about 4-6 worthy. Comically, another guy went on the DL again this week. With only one win and one tie, Pierce said he’s packing it in, but only listed part of his roster as available for trade, which is confusing. He’s got enough pieces to accumulate some very good picks before next season if that is indeed the route he goes. So far, he’s just made one trade, and made out quite well in getting quality return for Chapman. A likely aggravating matchup with Russ should push him over the edge this week.
12. Urban Achievers – Dan missed out on a golden opportunity to pickup a big win over Moose as his offense could only put together 4 hr, 20 rbi, and 1 steal. The 4.06/1.39 pitching line isn’t great, but would’ve beat a lot of teams this week. ZCozart and DGordon’s values have plummeted quite a bit and LScott and Arencebia have proven to be their streaky selves. The return of MReynolds and CYoung could help, but they too can be streaky. You can live with streaky guys, providing they don’t all go cold at once. Unfortunately for Dan, they did this week.
13. Anal Hershiser – CQuentin came back and rewarded Andrew for his faith, but it was pretty much all the offense his team could muster with an ugly 25/5/17 on offense. Morse is back though, so perhaps those two can help in the power dept. The typically good pitching was thwarted by reality this week as HAlvarez, PWalters, Pettite, and DSmyly all remembered why they weren’t high draft picks.
14. Billy Chapel – At some point, you just have to cover your ass and say “No more! I will not submit!” Again, there’s some good players here and 3.19/1.40 would’ve beaten a lot of teams this week, but there’s little hope at this point. He’s made a few trades, but there’s plenty of guys left to deal. Unfortunately for Troy, two of his bigger chips, ARod and Kennedy, are not recovering to the point where they’re appealing enough to fork over a big pick or quality keeper.
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