Week 12 Real Rankings

Week 10 & 11 Real Rankings

Lots of movement in the standings and real rankings since the last post. Kyle dropped out of the top spot while Chad made the leap into to the top spot and has a pretty healthy lead over third and below. As shown in the VAR column (volatility measure), Chad has been by far the most steady performer over the course of the season, which says a lot about his abilities given that he has also made the most roster moves so far. Perhaps even more impressive is he is second overall in pitching and first in hitting, which far exceeds anyone else in terms of average ranking in the two categories. Unfortunately, he still only sits tied for fourth in the standings with 5.5 games out.

Below is the average RR over the last 4 weeks. Kyle's pirates would've been 5.4 and in first if it wasn't for the 10.9 egg laid last week - tied for the second worst week of any team this season. For my Revenge, the real performance is starting to catch up to the standings, which obviously preferable to the alternative. Meanwhile, Ring and Grit are some noteworthy sliders.

RR - LAST 4 WEEKS

1	Montezuma's Revenge	5.70
2	Anal Hershiser	5.83
3	Take the Knebel	6.00
4	Tomahawk chops	6.03
5	Sexual Napalm	6.58
6	The Angry Pirates	6.78
7	Donkey Punchers	7.30
8	Cowhide Joyride	7.70
8	One Nut Wonders	7.70
10	Brokeback Moundmen	7.80
11	Grit Beer and Balls	7.88
12	Moose is Loose!	7.98
13	Ring of Fire	8.08
14	Knuckle Sandwich	8.20

We're at the halfway mark of our 21-week regular season, so it's a good time to try to figure out which direction your going. There are a lot of middling teams that could be a hot streak away from a top position. There's also 8 playoff spots, so you're more likely to make the playoffs than not in this league, making it a seller's market. Generally, the most successful rebuilds start with selling off non-keeper assets for picks and adding potentially high-octane replacements, which you also sell as their performance dictates. Obvious keepers can get top dollar value, but its important to keep in mind that picks in rounds 7-10 can only be traded in the open trading period from July 28-Aug 11. So, it may be worth holding on to obvious keepers until you can maximize their value.

If you end up selling, let the masses know! There's no shortage of teams with holes.

It's always interesting to see which players fall off and which players sustain. So often what looks like a breakout turns into a flatlining player who everyone is shocked to see dropped -- then you look at the recent numbers. But then you get the legit emergence of players like Kepler, Marter, Giolito, Renfroe -- all guys people one time had a hardon for, but hadn't quite put it together. Here they are, nearing the end of June and they're producing like legit keepers. 

TOP 25 - LAST 30 DAYS

1	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
2	Max Scherzer Was - P 	Montezuma's Revenge
3	Christian Yelich Mil - OF 	The Angry Pirates
4	Max Kepler Min - OF	Knuckle Sandwich
5	Ketel Marte Ari - 2B,SS,OF	Brokeback Moundmen
6	Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B 	One Nut Wonders
7	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 	Anal Hershiser
8	Charlie Morton TB - P	Take the Knebel
9	Lucas Giolito CWS - P	Sexual Napalm
10	Trevor Story Col - SS 	Ring of Fire
11	Carlos Santana Cle - 1B,3B	Anal Hershiser
12	David Dahl Col - OF 	Cowhide Joyride
13	Chris Sale Bos - P 	Moose is Loose!
14	Walker Buehler LAD - P 	Anal Hershiser
15	Starling Marte Pit - OF 	Anal Hershiser
16	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
17	Anthony Rizzo ChC - 1B 	Brokeback Moundmen
18	Hunter Renfroe SD - OF	Grit Beer and Balls
19	Jacob deGrom NYM - P 	Grit Beer and Balls
20	Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD - P	Tomahawk chops
21	Anthony Rendon Was - 3B 	The Angry Pirates
22	Garrett Cooper Mia - 1B,OF	Cowhide Joyride
23	José Berríos Min - P 	Ring of Fire
24	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS 	Tomahawk chops
25	Justin Verlander Hou - P 	Tomahawk chops

Week 10 Real Ranking

NOTES
Lots of movement on the boards again this week. Perhaps they're normalizing a bit, but we still have some wide discrepencies in Actual vs. Real. The primary reason for that is pretty clearly parity. The teams ranked 2-11 in the Real Rankings are only separated by 1 point, so those teams can fluctuate week to week quite a bit. The 12-14 teams are all approximately where they should be according to the Real Rankings and you've got to wonder at what point does the master dealer -- sitting 28.5 games out of first and 18.5 out of a playoff spot -- take his one remaining nut and call it a season?

We are on the verge of the halfway point, so it's not a bad time to take stock and figure out what pieces you might need. There were as many deals in the first 40 minutes after the season than there were in April and May -- and both were considered widely to be lopsided.  While Tim Anderson is certainly not the most steady player, his overall numbers are great and Kyle Freeland's were not, so it was a bit perplexing why Dave made the trade. The Rockies subsequently optioned Freeland and Tim Anderson is 5/15 with a HR and an SB for Anal. I should note the draft picks were swapped incorrectly, so Dave shouldve received the 3 rounds, not Justin (Yahoo is fixing). Then there's the Jason trade we all didn't like but really hasn't had much of an impact. Jed's players (Gordon/Blackmon/Price) have performed well despite all spending time on the IL and two of Jason's three guys (Xander/Freeman) have been outstanding. Yet, both teams remain firmly in the basement and they have combined to have only one Real Ranking score better than 7.5 over the last 6 weeks!

Someone will have to do something to differentiate themselves at some point. My guess is there will be even more teams willing to sacrifice next year for this year given how the season is going. The team with the top draft score heading into this year's draft, Anal, is doing quite well, but the second and third place scores (Cowhide and Moose) are sitting in 11th and 12th while the three teams with the by far the worst draft scores - Montezuma's, Grit and Balls, and Sexual Napalm - are 1st, 2nd, and 4th in the Actuals. It should be noted that my team and Shomphe's have 33 transactions each.  All of this just lends credence to what I've been saying for years - inseason moves are far more important than the draft (whether by dumb luck or skill).

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Here's a look at how everyone is trending the last three weeks:

LAST THREE WEEKS
1 Montezuma's Rev 5.6
2 Take the Knebel 5.9
3 The Angry Pirates 6.1
4 Anal Hershiser 6.1
5 Tomahawk chops 6.4
6 Sexual Napalm 6.9
7 Knuckle Sandwich 7.0
8 Grit Beer and Balls 7.2
9 Donkey Punchers 7.6
10 Brokeback Mound 7.7
11 Cowhide Joyride 7.9
12 Moose is Loose! 8.2
13 Ring of Fire         8.2
14 One Nut Wonders 8.9

And here's individual players that are hot over the past two weeks - bunch of keepers and then theres the likes of Giolito, Nunez, Odorizzi, Soroka, Riley, Renfroe, Marte, and Dietrich, who were all up for grabs not too long ago:

LAST 14 DAYS

1	Trevor Story Col - SS 	Ring of Fire
2	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 	Anal Hershiser
3	Lucas Giolito CWS - P	Sexual Napalm
4	Renato Núñez Bal - 1B,3B	Montezuma's Revenge
5	Justin Verlander Hou - P 	Tomahawk chops
6	Austin Meadows TB - OF	Donkey Punchers
7	Max Scherzer Was - P 	Montezuma's Revenge
8	Anthony Rizzo ChC - 1B 	Brokeback Moundmen
9	Juan Soto Was - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
10	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
11	Jake Odorizzi Min - P	Take the Knebel
12	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
13	Andrew McCutchen Phi - OF 	Cowhide Joyride
14	Eduardo Escobar Ari - 3B,SS	Grit Beer and Balls
15	Rafael Devers Bos - 3B 	Take the Knebel
16	Max Kepler Min - OF	Knuckle Sandwich
17	Mike Soroka Atl - P	Sexual Napalm
18	Austin Riley Atl - 3B,OF	Tomahawk chops
19	Hunter Renfroe SD - OF	Grit Beer and Balls
20	Rich Hill LAD - P	Sexual Napalm
21	Derek Dietrich Cin - 1B,2B,OF	Take the Knebel
22	Brad Peacock Hou - P	The Angry Pirates
23	Ketel Marte Ari - 2B,SS,OF	Brokeback Moundmen
24	Gleyber Torres NYY - 2B,SS 	Knuckle Sandwich
25	David Price Bos - P	Donkey Punchers