Final Real Ranking 2019

NOTES

Sorry for missing the last few weeks. Here is the final Real Rankings for the 2019 regular season. Always interesting to see how this comes together as it can differ dramatically from the actual standings at various points during the season.  In this case, every team was within three spots of their actual standings. The top 8 teams in the real rankings are all playoff teams with the exception of Ring of Fire, whose spot was taken by Grit Beer and Balls, which had a very volitile season, as shown in the VAR column.

The most volatile team was actually the top team in the Real Rankings and the Actual Standings, your own neighborhood Montezuma's Revenge. It is interesting to see how volatility comes into play. The Revenge's weekly outputs ranged from 3.1-11.1, while the least volatile team, Tomahawk Chops, came in second in the RR and only ranged from 3.3-8.4. Both teams dominated on "both sides of the ball" with top 3 finishes in hitting and pitching. It will be interesting to see if these two teams go head to head.

However, H2H means anything goes and as we sit here before Friday night's games have started, three of the four lower seeds are ahead for the week. One thing that has always occurred since we went to 14 teams and 8 playoff teams with no bye is that anything goes. All it takes is one bad week and poof the season is over.

So who is hot going into the playoffs, here's the last 4 week average:

1	Montezuma's Revenge	4.5
2	Tomahawk chops	4.8
3	Brokeback Moundmen	5.8
4	Sexual Napalm	6.0
5	Anal Hershiser	6.5
6	Take the Knebel	6.6
7	The Angry Pirates	6.6
8	Ring of Fire	6.7
9	Moose is Loose!	7.0
10	Knuckle Sandwich	8.1
11	One Nut Wonders	8.2
12	Grit Beer and Balls	8.4
13	Donkey Punchers	10.0
14	Cowhide Joyride	11.0

And like the RR and Actual, the cream ultimately rises to the surface with individual players as well. The ranking below of the top 25 shows only a handful of them are non-keepers. They include Max Muncy (7th round), Shane Bieber (8th round), Carlos Santana (9th round), Pete Alonso (14th round), Josh Bell (15th round).

1	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
2	Christian Yelich Mil - OF 	The Angry Pirates
3	Justin Verlander Hou - P 	Tomahawk chops
4	Cody Bellinger LAD - 1B,OF 	Grit Beer and Balls
5	Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF 	Tomahawk chops
6	Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B 	One Nut Wonders
7	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS 	Tomahawk chops
8	Anthony Rendon Was - 3B 	The Angry Pirates
9	Juan Soto Was - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
10	Mookie Betts Bos - OF 	Sexual Napalm
11	Gerrit Cole Hou - P 	Grit Beer and Balls
12	Pete Alonso NYM - 1B	Montezuma's Revenge
13	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
14	Rafael Devers Bos - 3B 	Take the Knebel
15	Carlos Santana Cle - 1B,3B	Anal Hershiser
16	Josh Bell Pit - 1B	Moose is Loose!
17	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 	Anal Hershiser
18	Bryce Harper Phi - OF 	Grit Beer and Balls
19	Shane Bieber Cle - P	Take the Knebel
20	Jacob deGrom NYM - P 	Grit Beer and Balls
21	Max Scherzer Was - P 	Montezuma's Revenge
22	Trevor Story Col - SS 	Ring of Fire
23	Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
24	J.D. Martinez Bos - OF 	Sexual Napalm
25	Josh Donaldson Atl - 3B 	Brokeback Moundmen

Week 17 & 18 Real Rankings

NOTES

Trading has closed on what was a very interesting opening trading period. We once again had 22 trades occur within two weeks, 8 of which occurred in one day! During the period, we saw five first round picks changed hands, leaving Jason and Dave with three each. Meanwhile, Jed and Dave will finish drafting in the the 13th round if nothing changes (it usually does though).

New Chris sold a few pieces and improved his board, but all in all there were a lot more buyers this year, which shows in some of the interesting pieces that were being traded for. While some contenders managed to improve their rosters without hurting their draftboard too much and absorbing many late picks, the Moundmen and Napalm are putting it all on the line and have only two and three picks in the first 7 rounds, respectively, an nine picks in the last four rounds.

Here's the updated 2020 draftboard with scores

There's been a lot of jostling for positioning in the past two weeks. For the first time in a few seasons we don't have a seller in the playoff hunt, so kudos to all the teams that stuck with. Moose and Angry both have some work to do to wiggle back into the playoff hunt, while Anal and Knebel are staring up at a hefty 12.5 game lead for the Revenge and three weeks left to go.

The last 4 weeks show some late surges from the middle of the pack, including Anal and Knebel, but as well as Tomahawk and Ring.

LAST 4 WEEKS

1	Tomahawk chops	5.0
2	Take the Knebel	5.4
3	Ring of Fire	5.5
4	Anal Hershiser	6.0
5	The Angry Pirates	6.4
6	Montezuma's Revenge	6.4
7	Brokeback Moundmen	6.7
8	Sexual Napalm	6.8
9	Moose is Loose!	7.1
10	Knuckle Sandwich	8.1
11	One Nut Wonders	8.1
12	Grit Beer and Balls	9.1
13	Donkey Punchers	9.1
14	Cowhide Joyride	9.8

Remember it is of utmost importance that lineups continue to be set even if you are out of it. Thank you in advance.

Please be sure to pay your dues asap via check to Adam Leech, 90 Old Route 9, North Berwick, ME 03906 or pay via paypal: adrok71@yahoo.com

Week 16 Real Rankings

NOTES

Open trading has begun! Until Aug 11 at midnight, you can trade up to two picks in rounds 7-10 (no limit on the number you can receive). So let people know if you’re selling or buying and see if you can match up!

I’ve pasted images of all the trades made during the open trading period last year, which can help provide some context. More than half the total trades happened during this period, so get ready for some action.

The Real Rankings show a tight race at the top, with six teams separated by 0.50, so a couple of well timed trades could make all the difference. 

Here’s who’s hot and who’s not over the last 4 weeks:

1	Take the Knebel	5.1
2	Montezuma's Revenge	5.6
3	Moose is Loose!	5.9
4	Anal Hershiser	6.3
5	Tomahawk chops	6.8
5	Sexual Napalm	6.8
7	The Angry Pirates	7.0
8	Brokeback Moundmen	7.2
9	Ring of Fire	7.4
10	One Nut Wonders	7.6
11	Grit Beer and Balls	8.4
11	Knuckle Sandwich	8.4
13	Cowhide Joyride	8.6
14	Donkey Punchers	8.7

And here’s the top players over the last 30 days:

1	Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF 	Tomahawk chops
2	Mookie Betts Bos - OF 	Sexual Napalm
3	Rafael Devers Bos - 3B 	Take the Knebel
4	Ramón Laureano Oak - OF	Tomahawk chops
5	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's
6	Gerrit Cole Hou - P 	One Nut Wonders
7	Yuli Gurriel Hou - 1B,2B,3B	Donkey Punchers
8	Christian Yelich Mil - OF 	The Angry Pirates
9	José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B 	The Angry Pirates
10	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
11	Nelson Cruz Min - Util 	Moose is Loose!
12	Keston Hiura Mil - 2B	Take the Knebel
13	Eugenio Suárez Cin - 3B	Ring of Fire
14	Josh Donaldson Atl - 3B 	One Nut Wonders
15	Shane Bieber Cle - P	Take the Knebel
16	Stephen Strasburg Was - P 	Brokeback
17	Sonny Gray Cin - P	Cowhide Joyride
18	Paul Goldschmidt StL - 1B 	Ring of Fire
19	Renato Núñez Bal - 1B,3B	Moose is Loose!
20	Travis d'Arnaud TB - C,1B	Moose is Loose!
21	Jose Altuve Hou - 2B 	Cowhide Joyride
22	Clayton Kershaw LAD - P 	Brokeback
23	Mike Clevinger Cle - P 	Donkey Punchers
24	Michael Brantley Hou - OF	Knuckle Sandwich
25	Zack Greinke Ari - P 	Moose is Loose!

2018 OPEN TRADING PERIOD TRADES

Week 15 Real Rankings

Week 13 & 14 Real Rankings

NOTES

Well, well. We've got a new #1 in the RR. After claiming the top spot in the actual standings weeks ago but sitting at 6-8th in the RR, the Revenge have shown their true colors and it's looking pretty good, led by Trout/Scherzer and a bunch of hot youngsters (Alonso, Tatis, Soto). We've also got a new #2 as Jeff's hot streak the past couple weeks has him in second, despite only rostering five SPs.

The last four weeks reflect a lot of the recent movement in the standings. It'll be interesting to see how Jason decides to go after pretty consistent production the last four weeks despite being 13th in the actual standings. We all know he likes to trade, but which way will he be trading?

LAST 4 WEEKS

1	Montezuma's Revenge	5.0
2	Anal Hershiser	6.0
3	Sexual Napalm	6.4
4	Take the Knebel	6.5
5	Grit Beer and Balls	6.9
6	Moose is Loose!	7.0
7	Brokeback Moundmen	7.2
7	Tomahawk chops	7.2
9	One Nut Wonders	7.3
10	Ring of Fire	7.4
11	Knuckle Sandwich	8.0
12	Cowhide Joyride	8.1
13	The Angry Pirates	8.2
14	Donkey Punchers	8.7

The top 25 players over the last 30 days explain the Revenge's resurgence. Lots of interesting young players here with Tatis, Gurriel, Alonso, Acuna, Albies, Ohtani, Laureano, and Eloy all blossoming into stars.

1	Max Scherzer Was - P	Montezuma's Revenge
2	Mike Trout LAA - OF	Montezuma's Revenge
3	Charlie Blackmon Col - OF	Donkey Punchers
4	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD - SS	Montezuma's Revenge
5	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Tor - 2B,SS,OF	Take the Knebel
6	Pete Alonso NYM - 1B	Montezuma's Revenge
7	Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF	Tomahawk chops
8	Josh Bell Pit - 1B	Moose is Loose!
9	Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B	One Nut Wonders
10	DJ LeMahieu NYY - 1B,2B,3B	Grit Beer and Balls
11	Yasiel Puig Cin - OF	The Angry Pirates
12	Liam Hendriks Oak - P	Tomahawk chops
13	Manny Machado SD - 3B,SS	Sexual Napalm
14	Aaron Nola Phi - P	Montezuma's Revenge
15	Christian Yelich Mil - OF	The Angry Pirates
16	Mookie Betts Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
17	Yuli Gurriel Hou - 1B,2B,3B	Donkey Punchers
18	Carlos Santana Cle - 1B,3B	Anal Hershiser
19	Ozzie Albies Atl - 2B	Tomahawk chops
20	Shohei Ohtani (Batter) LAA - Util	Tomahawk chops
21	Ramón Laureano Oak - OF	Tomahawk chops
22	Andrew Cashner Bal - P	Grit Beer and Balls
23	Eloy Jiménez CWS - OF	Anal Hershiser
24	Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
25	Trea Turner Was - SS	Brokeback Moundmen

It's the All-Star break, which means it's the two-thirds mark for our season. That's right - 14 weeks down, 7 more to go. The open trading period begins on July 28 at midnight. Negotiations can happen at any time, but the trades including rounds 7-10 will be null and void if they're agreed to before that time. Reminder that teams can only trade two picks in these rounds, but there is no limit on the number of top picks one can acquire.  If you're willing to trade surefire keepers during this time, it's best to post on the messageboard and let everyone know to send an offer.

Week 12 Real Rankings

Week 10 & 11 Real Rankings

Lots of movement in the standings and real rankings since the last post. Kyle dropped out of the top spot while Chad made the leap into to the top spot and has a pretty healthy lead over third and below. As shown in the VAR column (volatility measure), Chad has been by far the most steady performer over the course of the season, which says a lot about his abilities given that he has also made the most roster moves so far. Perhaps even more impressive is he is second overall in pitching and first in hitting, which far exceeds anyone else in terms of average ranking in the two categories. Unfortunately, he still only sits tied for fourth in the standings with 5.5 games out.

Below is the average RR over the last 4 weeks. Kyle's pirates would've been 5.4 and in first if it wasn't for the 10.9 egg laid last week - tied for the second worst week of any team this season. For my Revenge, the real performance is starting to catch up to the standings, which obviously preferable to the alternative. Meanwhile, Ring and Grit are some noteworthy sliders.

RR - LAST 4 WEEKS

1	Montezuma's Revenge	5.70
2	Anal Hershiser	5.83
3	Take the Knebel	6.00
4	Tomahawk chops	6.03
5	Sexual Napalm	6.58
6	The Angry Pirates	6.78
7	Donkey Punchers	7.30
8	Cowhide Joyride	7.70
8	One Nut Wonders	7.70
10	Brokeback Moundmen	7.80
11	Grit Beer and Balls	7.88
12	Moose is Loose!	7.98
13	Ring of Fire	8.08
14	Knuckle Sandwich	8.20

We're at the halfway mark of our 21-week regular season, so it's a good time to try to figure out which direction your going. There are a lot of middling teams that could be a hot streak away from a top position. There's also 8 playoff spots, so you're more likely to make the playoffs than not in this league, making it a seller's market. Generally, the most successful rebuilds start with selling off non-keeper assets for picks and adding potentially high-octane replacements, which you also sell as their performance dictates. Obvious keepers can get top dollar value, but its important to keep in mind that picks in rounds 7-10 can only be traded in the open trading period from July 28-Aug 11. So, it may be worth holding on to obvious keepers until you can maximize their value.

If you end up selling, let the masses know! There's no shortage of teams with holes.

It's always interesting to see which players fall off and which players sustain. So often what looks like a breakout turns into a flatlining player who everyone is shocked to see dropped -- then you look at the recent numbers. But then you get the legit emergence of players like Kepler, Marter, Giolito, Renfroe -- all guys people one time had a hardon for, but hadn't quite put it together. Here they are, nearing the end of June and they're producing like legit keepers. 

TOP 25 - LAST 30 DAYS

1	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
2	Max Scherzer Was - P 	Montezuma's Revenge
3	Christian Yelich Mil - OF 	The Angry Pirates
4	Max Kepler Min - OF	Knuckle Sandwich
5	Ketel Marte Ari - 2B,SS,OF	Brokeback Moundmen
6	Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B 	One Nut Wonders
7	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 	Anal Hershiser
8	Charlie Morton TB - P	Take the Knebel
9	Lucas Giolito CWS - P	Sexual Napalm
10	Trevor Story Col - SS 	Ring of Fire
11	Carlos Santana Cle - 1B,3B	Anal Hershiser
12	David Dahl Col - OF 	Cowhide Joyride
13	Chris Sale Bos - P 	Moose is Loose!
14	Walker Buehler LAD - P 	Anal Hershiser
15	Starling Marte Pit - OF 	Anal Hershiser
16	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
17	Anthony Rizzo ChC - 1B 	Brokeback Moundmen
18	Hunter Renfroe SD - OF	Grit Beer and Balls
19	Jacob deGrom NYM - P 	Grit Beer and Balls
20	Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD - P	Tomahawk chops
21	Anthony Rendon Was - 3B 	The Angry Pirates
22	Garrett Cooper Mia - 1B,OF	Cowhide Joyride
23	José Berríos Min - P 	Ring of Fire
24	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS 	Tomahawk chops
25	Justin Verlander Hou - P 	Tomahawk chops