Week 20 Real Rankings

NOTES

It’s a close race to the finish with several teams jockeying for position and the #1 overall spot and 25% of the pot up for grabs.  Thor, Angry, and Tomahawk all have a shot at the top seed and a nice chunk of change.  Regardless, looking at full season performance and recent performance, it’s pretty clear Kyle and his band of Angry Pirates are the front runners heading into the playoffs, but Chad's performance has been even better recently. Meanwhile, Jason is there lurking...

1	Tomahawk chops	4.58
2	The Angry Pirates	5.38
3	One Nut Wonders	5.53
4	Sexual Napalm	5.83
5	Moose is Loose!	6.15
6	Thor's Hammered	7.03
7	Keep Off Groin	7.15
8	Montezuma's Revenge	7.43
9	Ring of Fire	7.58
10	Take the Knebel	7.85
11	Anal Hershiser	8.25
12	Brokeback Moundmen	8.25
13	Donkey Punchers	9.28
14	Cowhide Joyride	9.30

Interesting that post-deadline, Moose is making a run with an almost entirely rebuilt roster.  He’s only 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot. It presents an interesting conundrum when you consider the alternative is 9th place and automatically the first pick in next year’s draft.  Meanwhile, Ring, Montezuma’s, and Keep off Groin are all at risk of falling out of the playoffs if Moose gets in.  All three teams are limping along, with RR of 7.1-7.5 over the past four weeks.  Should be an interesting weekend!

Just a reminder the last place finish pays another $30 next year and second to last pays another $15.

The Real Rankings look like they’re going to fall pretty much in line with the actual standings. It is interesting that Take the Knebel is the outlier because he was a bit of a surprise seller.

Playoff reminders:

- Seed is the tie breaker.
- Champion gets 50% of pot, runner-up gets 25%
- All teams (including non-playoff teams) are allowed 3 transactions per week. There is no injury exemption. Any transaction made after midnight on Sunday counts toward your transaction limit for the week. (If you make a claim on a player on waivers that is not processed until Monday morning, it counts against your limit)
- No transactions are allowed after the championship game is completed.
- Offseason open trading starts immediately following the championship.

Still need payments from Watson ($115), Dagan ($100), and Chris ($100).  Paypal is adrok71@yahoo.com.

Week 19 Real Rankings

Week 18 Real Rankings & Trade Reviews

NOTES

What started as a slow-moving market turned into a firestorm of action, with a record 28 trades made during the open trading period. Teams did a lot of fine tuning leading up to the very last minute, which always makes for an exciting end to the season. 

The trade reviews are below (let me know if you can't see it and I'll find a better format). But I thought some of you seller might want to see how you ranked going into the offseason in terms of draftboard. All in all, there's some very strong teams with great draft board and good keeper pieces. That can result in a very quick turnaround with a good draft. 

For those who have completed their season, please continue to be vigilent and update your lineups. I do monitor to make sure teams aren't being left to die. This is critical to the league and can influence playoff races, so please keep on top of this. 

It is with great sadness I have to report a loss among us. Dan Plourde announced this will be his last season and we're sorry to see him go. Dan kept on top of baseball and was always willing to talk trades, so we will miss such an active member of our league.  Thank you Dan!

With that in mind, please start thinking of potential managers to add to the league. 

Also, if you haven't paid your fee yet, please do so in the next week or so -- that way I can payout everyone when the season ends. 

Week 17 Real Rankings

NOTES

There’s a lot of jostling for playoff positioning going on. With Moose and Anal calling it quits, we’re down to 9 teams fighting for 8 spots (though, keep in mind, there have been instances where sellers make the playoffs).  While the standings says Take the Knebel should be hanging it up, the Real Rankings say otherwise as he has the second highest ranking in the past four weeks.  The breakdown below shows he also has the top pitching and sixth best hitting team over the last four.

Meanwhile Kyle’s band of Angry Pirates are firmly entrenched at the top and have started to separate in the actual standings.

The trade deadline is Sunday at midnight. It’s been oddly quiet this year with teams unsure which way to go and prices sky high. Only 5 restricted picks have been traded and four were by two teams, and now the market has more sellers. Should be an interesting final three days.

The Real Rankings are interesting when you consider it attempts to remove luck from the output, except, when it comes down to it, baseball championships – fantasy or real – are often fueled by players getting hot at the right time. (Perhaps that explains by one certain team with the league’s top winning percentage in its history and that hasn’t missed the playoffs in 12 seasons only has one championship… but I digress). Therefore, lets take a look at the hot players over the last month. 

It’s very compelling that one seemingly inconsequential swap of disappointing players earlier in the season has become such a critical trade for the two teams. Yes, Jason, Matt Carpenter has been awesome, but #18 on this list has been pretty darn good too.  

RK	NAME	TEAM
1	José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
2	Matt Carpenter StL - 1B,2B,3B	One Nut Wonders
3	Rougned Odor Tex - 2B	Tomahawk chops
4	Kole Calhoun LAA - OF	Cowhide Joyride
5	Christian Yelich Mil - OF	The Angry Pirates
6	Khris Davis Oak - OF	Anal Hershiser
7	Zack Greinke Ari - P	Moose is Loose!
8	Mike Trout LAA - OF	Montezuma's Revenge
9	Joey Gallo Tex - 1B,3B,OF	Moose is Loose!
10	Mookie Betts Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
11	Francisco Lindor Cle - SS	Take the Knebel
12	Jacob deGrom NYM - P	Thor's Hammered
13	Bryce Harper Was - OF	Thor's Hammered
14	J.D. Martinez Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
15	Dereck Rodríguez SF - P	Keep Off Groin
16	José Abreu CWS - 1B	One Nut Wonders
17	Chris Sale Bos - P	The Angry Pirates
18	Jon Gray Col - P	Take the Knebel
19	Max Scherzer Was - P	Montezuma's Revenge
20	Juan Soto Was - OF	Montezuma's Revenge
21	Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS	Anal Hershiser
22	Gregory Polanco Pit - OF	The Angry Pirates
23	Mallex Smith TB - OF	Moose is Loose!
24	Giancarlo Stanton NYY - OF	Cowhide Joyride
25	Carlos González Col - OF	Sexual Napalm

Just a reminder that all teams must continue to set rosters or they will be fined. This is important for the integrity of the league and it will be enforced.

Please send fee payment if you haven’t yet.

Week 16 Real Rankings

NOTES

The average Real Rankings and actual standings are starting to look even more similar.  While there is a common perception that H2H is too contingent on luck and matchups, the RR have consistently produced data indicating luck isn’t a factor over long time period. Half the league is in the same spot in the RR and Actual, six are within one spot, and one team is two spots away. Rotisserie is for chickens.

Kyle officially has the most balanced team, ranking tops in hitting and pitching for RR for the season. The #2 teams aren’t far behind, but it’s certainly an achievement worth noting as it is difficult to achieve that balance.

Heading into the open trading period, Jeff’s Take the Knebels are the hottest team over the last four weeks – by a significant margin.  Their place in the standings is a little flimsy, but there’s some clear upward trajectory here that the other playoff teams should note. Likewise, Gibby’s Napalm were making noise prior to the prolonged Week 16.  Chad’s Tomahawks also had a poor week, dropping him to 5^th over the last 4.  

It’ll be interesting to see how Brian decides to go.  He’s 6^th over the last 4, but 10^th in the standings and grouped amongst a bunch of teams with rosters that have largely underachieved.  To a lesser extent, Dan’s team has been top 8 over the last 4, but remains outside the playoff spot and produced a dud in week 16.  The relative production should be kept in mind for both team as their averages over the last 4 -- 6.7 and 7.3, respectively – aren’t anything to write home about.

On the other side, Jason’s One Nuts are technically in a playoff spot, but are in danger of falling out.  The team has actually been pretty good, but he has also been the second most volatile team for the season  Meanwhile, Chris’s Thor is 2^nd in the standings by 9^th over the last 4 (last two weeks have been good though).

Teams that are selling:  Anal, Brokeback, Donkey, Cowhide.  Everyone else seems to be either waiting to decide or waiting for prices to come down. Only one big trade so far, with Tanaka/Gattis going for a 9^th rounder, but I know from discussing with some of you that conversations are taking place.  Best advice for anyone that is on the fence is to look at the rosters of the top teams and try to determine how close you are. If it’s a few pieces and some luck, go for it. If your pitching roster look like an SP2 and a bunch of SP5s and your offense has been fueled by a nobody on a heater, then maybe not.

Still need money from Watson ($115), Dave, Dan, Dagan, and Chris. Don’t make me beg.  Paypal is adrok71@yahoo.com