Week 15 Real Rankings

NOTES

One week until the open trading period begins!  The big question is who is in and who is out? The standings and real rankings are essentially the same at this point so it is hard to draw conclusions.  For RR over the last 5 weeks, it’s not surprising to see Kyle remain on top. Right after that you have the lingering Napalm and Revenge, the latter of which has quietly made a late run at the top spot.  In the Actual Standings, Kyle and Adam are joined by Chris and Chad, who are jockeying for position in what could end up being the closest, wildest race for first in league history.  Meanwhile, Moose may sit in 11^th, but he’s had the 7^th best RR in the last 5 and sits 3.5 games out of a playoff spot.  Anal and Ring are also on the outside looking in, but are only 1 and 1.5 games out.

LAST 5 WEEKS

The Angry Pirates            5.36

Sexual Napalm                  5.68

Montezuma's Revenge 6.16

Take the Knebel               6.54

Tomahawk chops             6.60

Keep Off Groin                 7.02

Moose is Loose!               7.18

Ring of Fire                         7.26

Thor's Hammered            7.56

One Nut Wonders           7.68

Anal Hershiser                   7.72

Donkey Punchers            7.96

Brokeback Moundmen 8.40

Cowhide Joyride              8.82

What does all this mean for the trading deadline? The chewed up corpses of Donkey, Brokeback, and Cowhide are still there for the pecking. If one of them decide to move big names, there could be a lot to gain if none of the other teams decide to call it quits.  If one of the other team DO hang em up, then they potentially stand to make substantial gains for next season with so many teams looking for an edge to get them to the top spot and an automatic 25% of the winnings.

With that in mind, it’s important to take a hard look at your roster and attempt to determine which way to go. If your roster is getting by on luck, then perhaps its best to look past the actual standings. On the other hand, sometimes all it takes is that one big trade to put you over the top.

It’s a lot cheaper to trade for keepers now than in the offseason, so if you’re thinking of selling, now’s the time to do it. Because an SP that could bring back a first rounder may only get you a 6 round upgrade in the offseason.

Reminder of the Open Trading Rules:

7.5. During the regular season, prior to the open trading period, teams may only trade future picks after the 10th round. The open trading period will take place two weeks prior to the trading deadline, when teams may trade up to two future picks in Rounds 7-10. There is no limit on the number of picks a team may receive. There are no restrictions to offseason trading, which begins the day after the championship and ends two weeks prior to the draft. This rule is intended to maintain the competitive balance of the league by incentivizing teams to delay mass sell-offs until the end of the regular season.

Open trading begins Sun July 30 at midnight.  So, you only have two picks to trade in round 7-10. I will track them on the Yahoo page. The deadline is Sun Aug 12 at midnight. There is no trading after that time.  There are no restrictions to trading in the offseason, which will begin upon completion of the H&T playoffs. 

TOP 25 PLAYERS – LAST 30

1	Matt Carpenter StL - 1B,2B,3B	One Nut Wonders
2	Chris Sale Bos - P	The Angry Pirates
3	José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
4	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS	Tomahawk chops
5	Francisco Lindor Cle - SS	Take the Knebel
6	Starling Marte Pit - OF	Keep Off Groin
7	Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B,OF	Moose is Loose!
8	Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS	Anal Hershiser
9	Mookie Betts Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
10	Tyler Anderson Col - P	Take the Knebel
11	Wil Myers SD - 1B,OF	Donkey Punchers
12	J.D. Martinez Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
13	Zack Greinke Ari - P	Moose is Loose!
14	Jesús Aguilar Mil - 1B	Tomahawk chops
15	Aaron Nola Phi - P	Montezuma's Revenge
16	Rougned Odor Tex - 2B	Cowhide Joyride
17	Gregory Polanco Pit - OF	The Angry Pirates
18	Jacob deGrom NYM - P	Thor's Hammered
19	Giancarlo Stanton NYY - OF	Cowhide Joyride
20	Marco Gonzales Sea - P	Montezuma's Revenge
21	Edwin Díaz Sea - P	Take the Knebel
22	Felipe Vázquez Pit - P	Tomahawk chops
23	Kenta Maeda LAD - P	The Angry Pirates
24	Aaron Judge NYY - OF	Moose is Loose!
25	Dereck Rodríguez SF - P	Keep Off Groin

Jason is brilliant! (Now can I stop getting messages every time Carp hits a homer?)

Still need money from Watson ($115), Dave, Dan, Dagan, Jeff, and Shomphe.  Paypal is adrok71@yahoo.com

Week 14 Real Rankings

NOTES

We’ve officially entered the last third of the fantasy baseball season.  At 12:01 am on Monday July 30, the open trading period will start. Every team can trade up to two picks in the 7-10 rounds.  There is no limit on the number of picks you can receive.

With that in mind, it’s a good time to take a look at where you are and where you think you’ll be in three weeks.  Most teams are in it at this point, with only the bottom three looking in and selling. 11^th place Anal is only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, while the top three teams are essentially even and Montezuma’s isn’t far behind. Could get mighty competitive for the assets that end up on the market. Frankly, there may not be much of a market unless one of the 6-11^th teams really starts a nosedive.

The real rankings are eerily accurate this year. Only one team is out of position by more than one spot, with Napalm in 7^th in the Actual and 5^th in RR. As I indicated earlier, the Real Rankings actually provide proof that head-to-head is a perfectly viable setup for a league, as it shows very little difference between the two rankings. It is very useful on a week to week basis to show relative production, but in the end basic mathematics prevails and luck is evenly distributed.

It is interesting to look at the RR in segments. For example, the second “trimester” of the season reveals how the standings have fluctuated recently with Kyle pulling away from the pack in a big way and my team making moves away from the next tier of top teams.  

LAST 7 WEEKS

1	The Angry Pirates	5.07
2	Montezuma's Revenge	6.09
3	Sexual Napalm	6.53
4	Tomahawk chops	6.56
5	One Nut Wonders	6.64
6	Thor's Hammered	6.76
7	Keep Off Groin	7.26
8	Ring of Fire	7.33
9	Take the Knebel	7.53
10	Moose is Loose!	7.67
11	Anal Hershiser	7.77
12	Donkey Punchers	7.80
13	Brokeback Moundmen	8.03
14	Cowhide Joyride	8.41

Still need money from Watson ($115), Dave, Dan, Dagan, Gibby, Jeff, and Shomphe.  Paypal is adrok71@yahoo.com

Week 13 Real Rankings

NOTES
Is Kyle becoming the elite the team in the league? If you look at the output over the last four weeks, it's not even close. That Sale/Paxton/Snell combo has been tough to come up against, and guys like Mike Taylor, Jose Martinez, and Yogervis Solarte are making the difference in hitting. Will that continue? Hard to say, but he's cruising now.

LAST 4 WEEKS
1	The Angry Pirates	5.0
2	Montezuma's Revenge	6.4
3	Thor's Hammered	6.6
4	Sexual Napalm	6.8
5	Ring of Fire	6.9
6	Tomahawk chops	7.0
7	Brokeback Moundmen	7.0
8	Keep Off Groin	7.3
9	Moose is Loose!	7.5
10	Donkey Punchers	7.5
11	Take the Knebel	7.7
12	Anal Hershiser	7.8
13	One Nut Wonders	7.9
14	Cowhide Joyride	8.7

The league is doing a much better job controlling their rate of pickups. So far, only Chad is projected to go over the 60 transaction limit and it's only by 6. (Yes, even I am under!)

Taking a look at the top 25 over the past 30 days, there's a lot of guys bouncing back after slow starts and big investments:  Bregman, Goldy, Cruz, Altuve, Desmond, Carpenter, Hoskins, Bellinger. Then there's Max Muncy, which no one understands.

TOP 25 - LAST 30
1	Paul Goldschmidt Ari - 1B	Ring of Fire
2	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS	Tomahawk chops
3	Chris Sale Bos - P	The Angry Pirates
4	Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B,OF	Moose is Loose!
5	Nelson Cruz Sea - OF	Tomahawk chops
6	José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
7	Jose Altuve Hou - 2B	Cowhide Joyride
8	Francisco Lindor Cle - SS	Take the Knebel
9	Eddie Rosario Min - OF	Ring of Fire
10	Ian Desmond Col - 1B,OF	Montezuma's Revenge
11	Matt Carpenter StL - 1B,2B,3B	One Nut Wonders
12	J.D. Martinez Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
13	Luis Severino NYY - P	Keep Off Groin
14	Rhys Hoskins Phi - 1B,OF	Brokeback Moundmen
15	Andrew Benintendi Bos - OF	Thor's Hammered
16	Trevor Bauer Cle - P	Sexual Napalm
17	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B	Anal Hershiser
18	Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS	Anal Hershiser
19	Mike Trout LAA - OF	Montezuma's Revenge
20	Jesús Aguilar Mil - 1B	Tomahawk chops
21	Max Scherzer Was - P	Montezuma's Revenge
22	Blake Snell TB - P	The Angry Pirates
23	Cody Bellinger LAD - 1B,OF	Thor's Hammered
24	Jacob deGrom NYM - P	Thor's Hammered
25	Evan Gattis Hou - C	Brokeback Moundmen

TRADE REVIEWS

Cowhide receives:

Tom Murphy Col - C

Round 18

Tomahawk receives:

John Hicks Det - C,1B

Round 21

Pretty straight forward. Hicks is a sneaky C because he’s actually mildly productive 1B, so no worries about regular rest. The numbers aren’t huge (13 hr in 414 career abs, .310 obp), but neither was the compensation required, so good move by chad.

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Brokeback receives:      

Seth Lugo NYM - P

Round 15

Tomahawk receives:

Zack Wheeler NYM - P

Round 21

I don’t know. Six rounds seems like a lot for a 4.50 era and a high likelihood of an early end to his season.  Outside of a rough up in ATL, Wheeler was quite good  in June and has the potential for 7-9 K outings. The pitch velocity charts are everywhere this season, which makes me think he’s still working some things out. He’s got potential to be a great SP6 or so, but he’ll get roughed up from time to time and may be on waivers when you need him most, so 6 rounds seems like a bit more than I’d pay.

--

Donkey receives:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tor - 3B NA

Mike Soroka Atl - P DL

Carlos Rodón CWS - P

Round 11

Tomahawk receives:

Nelson Cruz Sea - OF

Justin Verlander Hou - P

Round 23

I only just stopped screaming every time I saw this trade.  This is officially the worst trade in H&T history.  Sorry, Jed. But even if Vlad Jr. turns into Vlad Sr., this will be a horrible trade because of the lost opportunity cost.  All of those players Jed received wouldn’t have been enough for one of Cruz or Verlander.  People get enamored with prospects all the time, but the next one is right around the corner folks – nothing has changed.  I don’t doubt he’ll be a fine major leaguer at some point, but he’ll likely settle at 1B early in his career (lowering his value) and there’s an odd omission in all the reporting on how great he is:  32 HR in 877 minor league at bats.  He almost has that many SBs (26) and he’s not actually going to be allowed to steal in the majors as his minor league SB conversion rate is only 69%.  He doesn’t even have the most HR on his own team by the son of a former major league (Cavan Biggio – 16).

As far as compensation goes, by comparison, this isn’t that far off from what I gave up to get Mike Trout a couple seasons ago (Rizzo, Kluber, Miggy).  Even if Jed wasn’t planning on keeping Cruz or Verlander, they should’ve both been traded for 30 rounds of picks and a keeper. They are that valuable.  You can like Soroka and Rodon all you want, but there is a 0% percent chance either of them is kept next season. This is why you put out a call for last offers when you’re about to deal a superstar.  Chad must’ve borrowed some of Jason’s JEDi mind tricks or something because he made Jed his padawan. 

Week 12 Real Rankings