Friday, June 22, 2018

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Week 10 Real Rankings



Trade Reviews


COWHIDE GETS
Jeff Samardzija SF - P DL
Round 13
Round 18

NAPALM GETS
Ross Stripling LAD - P
Round 22
Round 23

Those who aren’t paying attention may have looked at this trade and thought they missed something, and they may have. Stripling has been putting up ace-like numbers this season and the underlying numbers show it’s not a fluke.  That said, we’re talking about a guy who has bounced around between AAA and majors for a while. He went from 28 yo yo-yo player to an ace that warrants 14 rounds of draft picks. It’s a huge boon for Dave and a big risk for Gibby, but one that is worth taking.

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COWHIDE GETS
Round 20

MONTEZUMAS GETS
Trevor Cahill Oak - P DTD
Round 24

Low level trade for a mid-rotation arm. He’s solid when he’s healthy, but he’s suddenly not healthy again. The nice part about Cahill is he tends to not get blown up too often because of his high groundball tendencies, and when things are going right, he has the ability to put up a 10k complete game shutout. Will he be in the rotation at the end of the season? For four rounds late, it makes sense to try and find out.

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BROKEBACK GETS           
Harrison Bader StL - OF
Adam Duvall Cin - OF
Round 14
Round 15

ANGRY GETS
Kenta Maeda LAD - P DL
C.J. Cron TB - 1B
Round 17
Round 20

This is a great get by Kyle because he took the DL stint and grabbed a discount on an SP that could be a big contributor. Maeda is worth much more than 8 rounds by himself when healthy, so Watson might have benefited from being more patient. I have little faith in CJ Cron suddenly becoming a top 20 fantasy 1B, but he’s certainly showing he warrants greater usage than he got in LAA. And what the heck happened to Adam Duvall? Anyhow, Kyle for the big win here.

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ANAL GETS
Sean Doolittle Was - P
Travis Shaw Mil - 3B
Ender Inciarte Atl - OF

DONKEY GETS
Matt Chapman Oak - 3B DTD
Dylan Bundy Bal - P
Jeremy Hellickson Was - P DL

I actually like this one a lot for Jed. Shaw maybe overlooked again as an elite 3B and Inciarte is perpetually underated, but I really like Chapman as a long-term piece and a potential keeper while Bundy has the tantalizing talent to warrant keeper consideration as an SP. Bundy is a strange one because he is absurdly streaky for a pitcher, but it’s hard to argue with a 14.1% SwSTR!!! While I think Shaw is definitely a keeper moving forward, I like the upside of Jed’s return.  Justin meanwhile fills big holes and rids himself of some inconsistent play. This trade was a good one and made even better by the fact that it was strictly players for players – a rarity these days.

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ONE NUT GETS 
Jake Arrieta Phi - P
Round 21

DONKEY GETS   
Julio Urías LAD - P
Round 12

This is stupid. Ugh. Nine rounds for a top 20 SP? This is one of those cases where people need to tell Jason no and just pose the player to the entire league. I pray to god no value was attached to Urias in this deal…


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COWHIDE GETS
David Dahl Col - OF DL
Round 13

MONTEZUMAS GETS
Buster Posey SF - C,1B
Round 20

This makes sense, but represents an end to one of the longest running player/manager relationships in H&T history.  I believe only Pierce’s infatuation with David Wright lasted longer. Posey’s days as a keeper are numbered, and one could argue they were numbered a few years ago. The days of Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez are over and the best hitters are getting moved off the position early on. This is Posey’s value at this point, and it makes sense for a team like the Revenge that are in need of OBP help. Good trade.

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DONKEY GETS
Wil Myers SD - 1B,OF DL
Round 11
Round 14
Round 16

NAPALM GETS
Gerrit Cole Hou - P
Round 18
Round 22
Round 24


That’s 23 rounds and a brittle 1B who shouldn’t be an OF for a leading Cy Young candidates. It’s a pretty good return if you consider Myers a potential keeper again. It’s hard to look past the prolonged injury history, but there’s so few players capabale of 20/20 and much more.  Meanwhile, we’ve just never seen a Gerrit Cole like we’ve seen this Gerrit Cole. Could this be the new reality brought on by Houston’s masterful pitching approach or is it a fluky hot streak from a talented former top prospect? Either way, I like the return for Jed and the bold move by Gibby, who suddenly makes his whole roster look a lot better.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Week 8 & 9 Real Rankings




NOTES

The Real Rankings and Actual Standings are starting to get closer and closer. If you look at the +/- column, you'll see 11 of the 14 teams in the league are within two spots of their place in the Actual Standings.  Still a lot of fluctuation from week to week but a few teams have shown remarkable consistency.

Trading season has officially begun!   Looks like Jed and Dave are looking to next year.  These were the teams that sold off the most at the trade deadline last year, so something to think about as we move forward. It would behoove anyone selling to let everyone know when it is official and who is the best candidates to choose from.

We are nearly at the halfway point and teams are doing a much better job reigning in their transactions. Given the natural slowdown in transactions as the year goes on, it looks like everyone is pretty safe at this point.

Always like to highlight when a long-time player's fantasy career ends on a team. In a game that is so fluid and injuries are so frequent, it is very rare for players to spend more than 4-5 years on one team.  This week, we saw Buster Posey say goodbye to a team he has spent most of his career with.  Posey was acquired by Cowhide Joyride (with Derek Holland and a 11th and 15th) from Montezumas' on July 30, 2011 (for Josh Beckett, Carlos Beltran, and a 22nd, 21st) and spent 7 years with Dave.  Now that he is with Montezuma's again, he will have spent 9 seasons with only two teams!  Posey was originally added by Montezuma's on May 29, 2010. Congratulations, Buster - it was quite a run.

While I was scoping for the Posey info, I uncovered this gem from 2011. Just for anyone looking to give me credit on being able to see real talent. (I also swapped him for Ian Stewart in a league I was in at the time). Glad we go reunited.


Here's the updated Top 25. Remarkably, 21 of the 25 were kept - usually there are quite a few more emergers, but looks like the league did a pretty good job selecting keepers. Only Albies, Hader (not really a top 25 in our league), Baez, and Snell were drafted.

1
Mike Trout LAA - OF
Montezuma's Revenge
2
Mookie Betts Bos - OF
Sexual Napalm
3
Justin Verlander Hou - P
Donkey Punchers
4
José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B
The Angry Pirates
5
Bryce Harper Was - OF
Thor's Hammered
6
Aaron Judge NYY - OF
Moose is Loose!
7
Max Scherzer Was - P
Montezuma's Revenge
8
Gerrit Cole Hou - P
Sexual Napalm
9
J.D. Martinez Bos - OF
Sexual Napalm
10
Corey Kluber Cle - P
One Nut Wonders
11
Andrew Benintendi Bos - OF
Thor's Hammered
12
Manny Machado Bal - 3B,SS
Sexual Napalm
13
Francisco Lindor Cle - SS
Take the Knebel
14
Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B,3B
Tomahawk chops
15
Luis Severino NYY - P
Keep Off Groin
16
George Springer Hou - OF
Anal Hershiser
17
Nolan Arenado Col - 3B
Anal Hershiser
18
Josh Hader Mil - P
Tomahawk chops
19
Jacob deGrom NYM - P
Thor's Hammered
20
Ozzie Albies Atl - 2B
Tomahawk chops
21
Charlie Blackmon Col - OF
Take the Knebel
22
Jean Segura Sea - SS
Keep Off Groin
23
Javier Báez ChC - 2B,SS
Anal Hershiser
24
Blake Snell TB - P
The Angry Pirates
25
Aaron Nola Phi - P
Montezuma's Revenge