Week 3 Real Rankings

Three weeks in and things are starting to clear up in terms of emerging stars and stumbling duds, which is establishing early leaders in the H&T clubhouse. However, it is still early and one must be careful with early assessments. There is always someone dropped this time of year who ends up turning it on and becoming a top contributor. (Could be the guy you just dropped!) Meanwhile, rookies are starting to come up and contribute. Think about where we were a year ago -- Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Kyle Schwarber, Corey Seager, Miguel Sano, Makiel Franco, Gregory Polanco, Francisco Lindor, and Noah Syndergaard hadn’t even played their first big league inning.  They were just prospects.  It is a bit mind-blowing when you consider they’re all top 50 keepers now. Only Bryant was a keeper from the previous season. The others were drafted late as an NA or just scooped up off the wire. Makes you wonder who will be the next crop of new stars and which ones are out there right now, just waiting for you to identify them. Of course, what if, to do so, you drop a seemingly lucky fringe guy – you know, like 2015’s AJ Pollock or 2014’s JD Martinez or Jake Arrieta. Decisions decisions…

• The big news this week is we officially have a clear front runner. For the second week in a row, Jason of the lone nut fame is at the top of the Real Ranking after coming out tops in hitting and second in pitching. For the season, he now has the top hitting and pitching squads according to the Real Rankings. Arenado, Bautista, Trumbo, and Braun are fueling a powerful offense that is still waiting for EE to join the fun. Meanwhile, his pitching staff is an excellent mixture of vets (MadBum, Tanaka, Lackey, Gio, Arrieta) and some up and coming young guns (Sanchez, Moore, JRoss) and he has Yu on the way. There’s some holes here and there, but all in all this team looks like one that could run away with the regular season early
• The only thing standing in his way at the moment, is, well, me. Napalm and Revenge fought to the death this week in a matchup that started Sunday 3-6 in Gibby’s favor and ended with a 7-3 win by yours truly thanks to Rizzo & friends. It was another one of those instances when a team deserved more wins than they got thanks to the opponent as Gibby finished 4^th for the week in the Real but I was 2^nd. Still, Napalm are sitting in second in the Real Ranking and clearly are here to contend. Meanwhile, my team’s performance is starting to justify the actual standings, as I’m sitting in fourth.
• And wouldn’t you know it, Jason and I will be duking it out for the regular season lead this week. Should be a good one.
• Meanwhile, in statistical aberration news, Thor’s Hammered continued to perform solidly while yielding mediocre returns as Shomphe sits in third in the Real Rankings and dead last in the Actual. He did manage his first win of the year though, outlasting Kyle’s disgruntled Pirates.
• Likewise, Dan may be urban and he may be achieving, but despite another win this week, he’s sitting opposite Shomphe in the luck category as he’s third in the Actual but ninth in the Real. Similarly, the Anal buddies Justin & Andrew are fifth in the Actual but 12^th in the Real.
• Our new owners are seeing similar outcomes in terms of the Actual Standings as Jeff and Matt are in 11^th and 13^th, respectively, but they’re Real Rankings are quite different at 5^th and 14^th.
• Cowhide came back to Earth this week in a tough matchup with Ring. This could’ve easily gone either way, with Dagan edging out Dave in HR (11 vs. 10), RBI (35 vs. 32), and WHIP (1.21 vs. 1.29). Dave still finished with his best week according to the Real Rankings, so not reason to be discouraged there.
• Always fun to take a look at the top players early in the season:

1. OF Bryce Harper, Thor

2. 2B Jose Altuve, Cowhide

3. 3B Josh Donaldson, Anal

4. SP Jake Arrieta, One Nut

5. SP Chris Sale, Keepin

6. OF Dexter Fowler, Montezuma

7. 3B Manny Machado, Napalm

8. OF Mark Trumbo, One Nut

9. 3B Nolan Arenado, One Nut

10.  OF Mookie Betts, Napalm

11. 3B Eugenio Suarez, Keepin

12. 1B Anthony Rizzo, Montezuma

13. OF Ryan Braun, One Nut

14. SP Kenta Maeda, Napalm

15. OF Colby Rasmus, Moose

16. SS Almedys Diaz, Ring

17. SP Clayton Kershaw, Napalm

18. SS Trevor Story, Montezuma

19. SP Mat Latos, Ring

20. SP Vince Velasquez, Anal

 

Week 2 Real Rankings

• Several very close games this week, with one particularly dominant week by Jason.  How dominant was it? Well, consider that there were only five instances when a team’s Real Ranking was below 3.0 for a week last. That’s five times out of 294 data points, or 1.7%. While OBP and SB left much to be desired, One Nut was first in R, HR, RBI, K, ERA, and QS, while finishing second in WHIP. It’s one thing when you nail the cumulative stats due to an inordinate amount of double starts (93 Ks, 11 QS), but it’s another thing when the rate category are superior as well (1.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). Meanwhile, the 15 HRs matched Gibby’s week 1 output.
• Unfortunately, Jason’s prowess resulted in Shomphe’s unfair demise. Chris had a few rough spots, but a 5.8 Real Ranking is deserving of much more than two wins. After an unlucky first week, you’ll see a laughably out-of-whack Real Ranking (3^rd) vs. Actual Standings (14^th). Despite nice output, the newly named Thor’s Hammered ran into two incredible tough matchups with Sexual Napalm and One Nut, who both were tops in their respective Real Rankings that week. Unfortunate as it may be, this is what makes the Real Rankings useful. At this point, staying the course is probably the best way to go. This stuff typically evens out eventually.
• On the other side of the fairness spectrum, it is quite clear that my squad is the biggest group of frauds through two weeks.  The Revenge have benefited from barely outperforming a couple of tough luck opponents and sit at second in the standings, while the Real Rankings suggest they should be somewhere near the bottom. There will be no such luck this week, with Gibby’s squad coming into town.
• Flawed as it may be, my team is a good example where the Real Rankings can be a bit flawed. Punting S+H has a much more dire effect on the Real Ranking (14^th placed ranking) than it does on the Actual Standings (one category lost).
• Tough start for Mr. Watson and the Brokeback Moundmen. In this case, the rankings are affirming the other. Right now, pitching is the biggest issue with an average line of 53 K, 5.03 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 3 QS, and 6 S+H. You’d expect at least Harvey, Severino, and Cole to start pitching better, while Cashner and Buchholz just might be starting a tough season. Too early to tell and still plenty of talent here.
• Not for nothing, but so far the top three in the Actual Standings are consistent with the pre-draft rankings, including myself, Gibby, and Dave. Big matchup this week with Napalm taking on the Revenge.

Week 1 Real Rankings

Welcome to the first Real Rankings of 2016! A quick explanation for the new guys: I created this a few years ago as a way for everyone to assess their teams relative to the league – not just their opponent – on a week-to-week basis. The overall Real Ranking is just the average ranking in each category versus the rest of the league.

When considering how this might be helpful, Week 1 had a good example in my matchup with Keepin it Real.  Pierce lost the HR category even though his team hit 11 HRs, good enough for third in the league. He got no credit in the actual standings, but it helped his Real Ranking quite a bit. On the other hand, the actual standings would have you believe his staff deserved a win in the ERA category even though they finished at 5.60 -- 12th out of 14. A perfect example of how difficult the Actual Standings are to assess week to week. Meanwhile, even though I got the 6-4 win, Pierce’s Real Ranking has him in 5th – two spots above me. See? It’s all relative.

The best way to use this is when assessing your team needs a serious overhaul. It does a great job of sorting out luck. One drawback is the overall Real Ranking takes into account performance from earlier in the season. Given roster turnover, your scores in Week 1 will have little bearing on Week 18, so it is skewed in that respect. Because of this, I routinely provide a separate ranking for the previous four weeks later in the season.

The beauty of these rankings is they’ve proven that even though there are vast injustices in the final scores every week, there is a very high correlation at the end of the year.  Over the course of a season, every team’s Real Ranking typically falls within two spots of the Actual Standings.  This lends support to the idea that luck evens out over the course of a season and that the Head-to-Head format is not a crapshoot.

I try to post it on Monday, but keep I may not get to it until Tues or Wed sometimes. Also, most weeks, I’ll include some general observation or highlight some statistical anomalies.

-   The most prominent issue right of the bat is at #1 and #2. Both Gibby and Shomphe had weeks that deserved more than the 6 and 4 win each received, respectively. They were within three spots of eachother in six categories! Could’ve gone either way. Even though neither are probably happy with their place in the standings, both should be happy with their relative performance.

-   One thing neither the standings or rankings will show you is just how crazy Gibby’s power was last week. Sure, 15 HRs is a lot for any team, but it came from a broad swath of players crushing early season pitches. Meanwhile, half of my 14 HRs came from one guy (have I mentioned Trevor Story yet?).

-  Despite a much sturdier base on which to build, Matt lost out to Jeff in the battle of the new guys in both the final score (3-7) and the Real Ranking (4th vs. 14th).

-  The most balanced teams are at the top of the ranking, there are teams with huge differences between their hitting and pitching scores. The Revenge managed a 2.8 on offense thanks to top finishes in R, RBI, OBP and second place in HR, but finished with a 10.8 in pitching . The 41/14/28/2/.414 was almost as good as the pitching line was bad: 50/6.22/1.46/2/5. On the other side, Urban’s pitching line was much better than his hitting production (4.2 vs. 9.2).



Tough injuries already with keepers Pollock and Schwarber, along with early picks Tyson Ross and Shin-Soo Choo. As we all know though, the key to success goes far beyond keepers, draft picks, and the draft. In-season management is key and sometimes these injuries can unlock value elsewhere or cripple teams from the outset.

2016 Draft Review

Round 7

Best: 2B Brian Dozier, Urban – Yes, yes, we all need pitchers, but you don’t pass up a potential five-category contributor at a premium position. Sure his 101/28/77/12/.307 line highlights one obvious weakness, but his 8.7 BB% (very good) and .261 BABIP (very unlucky) suggests that number should be in the .330-.340 range, which is very useful. Age 29 and in an improving lineup? Not sure why he made it past six teams.

Runner-Up: SP Tyson Ross, Munchkins – There was a lot of SPs around the same talent level taken in this round. Ross edges out Lester for me based on age, GB tendencies (62% vs. 49%), and ballpark. Not to mention, there aren’t many starters who K more than 25% of the batters they face. Ross is one of them and he could get better.

Worst: SP Carlos Rodon, Prestige – All in all, I liked Jeff’s inaugural draft a lot, but you really don’t have to rebuild with a bunch of youngsters in this league, particularly young pitchers. The odds that Rodon does not achieve keeper-level status (only 23 SPs were kept this year ) before next year is quite high. I wouldn’t mind it as much if he had stable veterans to build on, but he does not and Rodon’s control issues just eximplify this team’s volatility.

Runner-Up: OF Hanley Ramirez, Cowhide – I like him fine for a rebound this year, but I don’t think anyone else was going to reach that high for him given the potential that he flakes out.  The lack of SS or 3B eligibility is also a massive detriment to his value. I know things piled up last year and there was some injuries, but a 76/13/56/3/.291 line in 401 ABs is dreadful. Even if he bounces back in a big way, this is just lost value. 

X-Factor: 2B Rougned Odor, Prestige – Second overall is high for a 21 year-old with 400 abs and half a good season under his belt. That said, there aren’t any surefire contributors to a broad swath of categories at 2B after Altuve. Odor has the power and speed to be right behind him very soon.  Or, he could be a young kid with a bad walk rate and more CS (7) than SB (6). You know, or that.

Round 8

Best:  OF Shin-Soo Choo, Montezuma’s – Excuse me while I reach over and pat my own back, but Choo was the third best hitter in my overall rankings. To get him at my first pick (#23) validated my decision to trade my first rounder last year. Other than an injury-plagued 2014, there’s nothing not to like. He’s 33, but not ancient and he rebounded in 2015 with an excellent .375 OBP to go with 94/22/82/4. The speed is gone, but who cares?

Runner-Up: OF Adam Eaton, Ring – This made many of us sad, but is a typical Dagan-type guy – multi-category contributor with strong on-base skills. Finally healthy for a full season, the 98/14/56/18/.361 line in 2015 is just the tip of the iceberg – 110/20/60/30/.380 is possible, and at the very least, he’ll be a solid UTIL with speed. 

Worst: RP Wade Davis, Anal – Easiest call of the review. Awful value here in a S+H league. His 78/0.94/0.79/35 season was great and all but so was Hector Rondon’s 69/1.67/1.00/38 season.  Davis may have deserved to be the first RP taken, but Rondon went in the 20^th round. Heck, Rondon wasn’t even the first or second Hector taken in the draft.  Mathematically, with the S+H, the impact a RP can have on rates in minimal and barely discernible when you compare the top 50 or so RPs. There’s just  a massive chasm of value between the two RPs. Davis is just a bad pick here.

Runner-Up: SP Yu Darvish, One Nut – I get acquiring value to trade down the road, but this is too soon.  The Ranger’s May target is an aggressive schedule for a TJS guy, borderline foolish. And really the only reason is they want to suck all the value out of this guy before he hits free agency.  At 14 months, it will be the fastest an SP has returned after the surgery. Don’t expect the old Yu. But how long do you wait for the old Yu? August? Not to mention, six to eight weeks is a long time for function with only one DL spot. It’s not that big of a deal, except when you’re investing a high pick like this. The bottom line is I’m pretty sure no one else was going to draft him for at least three more rounds.

X-Factor: SP Masahiro Tanaka, One Nut – He most assuredly would’ve been the top pick had we full confidence that 200 IP was possible this year. At this point, most would say that’s unlikely. “Ticking time bomb” was used to describe him a lot in preseason rankings, so the question is when. Maybe it’ll work out that his elbow finally gives out just as Darvish’s heals up and Jason can do the old Asian SP swap. If he can somehow make it through a whole season though, Jason got a top 40 keeper at the 112^th pick.

Round 9

Best:  SP Tajuan Walker, Prestige – I’m going to look past the fact that I just told Jeff to stop picking young guys and give him props for picking the SP I have pegged as the next dominant starter. All the signs point upward, particularly the improvement over the course of 2015. But the underlying data from 2015 is all good regardless – a .70 difference between his crappy ERA (4.56) and his more palatable xFIP (3.82), an excellent 22.2/5.7 K%-to-BB% ratio, very decent 58.6 QS% given youth, and a pristine 1.20 WHIP. No IP cap means a fun season is on the way. This guy shot up my rankings all offseason.

Runner-Up: SP Jose Quintana, Munchkins – The opposite of Walker, but valuable nonetheless. Quintana’s stuff is underwhelming but solid and consistent. Think of how often you wished to just get a QS from your starter. Well, Quintana got them 78.1% of the time last year – behind only Kershaw, Greinke, Arrieta, Keuchel, and Lackey. He’s 27 so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some improvement. 

Worst: OF Byron Buxton, Napalm – The worst kept secret in the draft was that I have no hope for Buxton this year, outside of Jake Marisnick-type value (read: no value). Nothing I saw last season suggests he’s ready - .209 AVG, .576 OPS (think Billy Hamilton), .116 ISO (think Anthony Gose power), 13.5 SwStr% (think Trumbo-like discipline), 24.1% soft contact (think injured Jacoby). Hell, he only stole 2 bases in 4 tries. The most glaring statistic showing “Next Trout” isn’t even the next Tim Salmon is he hit a total of 28 HRs in 1,227 minor league plate appearances. This pick is based entirely off of hype from scouts who like his tools, but even if you gave me the best tools in the world, I would still be a terrible mechanic. I’m not saying stardom won’t come, but I’m damn sure it’s not coming this year.

Runner-Up:  OF Corey Dickerson TB, Keepin – The name is really more than the value at this point. He’s got pop, but he’s living off a reputation from a partial season of play that yielded a good-not-great 2014 line. His batting average was .268 with a .662 OPS away from Coors during his career, and now he’s in a pitcher’s park. He can’t hit southpaws a lick and went to a team that doesn’t mind platooning. He’s also injury prone. Plus his real first name is McKenzie. 

X-Factor:  SP Lance McCullers, Angry – I must’ve moved this guy around my draft board a dozen times with a range of 20 spots due to his injury. I don’t like shoulder injuries in young pitchers, period. I love 24.8 K% and 1.19 WHIP in young pitchers, though. This could be one of the truly great K arms in the league this year or it could be a very short season for the hurler. A pick this high is a risky proposition, but the upside is tantalizing.

Round 10

Best: SP Patrick Corbin, Cowhide – Oooh, I love me some Patrick Corbin. He was stellar in his breakout 2013 season before the dreaded TJS. When he came back last season, it was as if nothing changed. The command was still great (4.8 BB%), the Ks were even more bountiful (21.8 K%), and his 16-game partial 2015 season and subsequent sparkling spring training 2016 suggest a 22/3.30/1.20/190 season is well within reach at age 26. Was very high in my ranks.

Runner-Up: 2B Dustin Pedroia, Montezumas – What’s this? An undervalued Red Sox player in H&T? I did not know such a thing existed -- as evidenced by my inability to draft a Sox regular since Manny in the first round of the league’s first year. Really, though, he’s 32 so it’s silly to write him off. His injury history is unfairly overstated.  Excluding two injury-riddled half-seasons in 2010 and 2015, he has averaged 149 games played per year in the other seven seasons. A 100/15/70/15/.340 season is perfectly within reach.

Worst:  RP Craig Kimbrel, Mike Ehrman-Trout – Since there weren’t that many objectionable picks in this round, this is just a friendly reminder that – no matter how great they are – RPs are not value picks at this point in the draft. You know who also had 39 S+Hs last year with a sub-2.50 ERA and 1.10ish WHIP? Kevin Jepsen (no, I didn’t mean to say Kenley Jensen). Jepsen was 23^rd rounder. Is the difference in draft value worth the 28 more strikeouts Kimbrel had? That’s a rhetorical question. The answer is no.

Runner-Up: OF Ben Revere, Keepin – Just too early. I mean, he’s a two-category guy, so you might as well have taken Billy Hamilton, who went three rounds later and has a full-time job. Revere will be in some sort of time share with Werth and Taylor. The 5.0 BB% makes him Kevin Pillar without any power. He’s a nice bench UTIL guy, but at this point in the draft, you’re looking for more than that. 

X-Factor: OF Randall Grichuk, Anal – Almost went with a tie here and threw Piscotty in the mix, but really Grichuk is the clear upside guy. He plays center, so he should play every day and he was the Cards’ go-to when they needed an OF last season, not Piscotty. The power is real (.272 ISO!!!), but so was the luck (.365 BABIP). With a full season of ABs, there’s no reason he can’t be in the 90/25/90/10/.330 range, but there’s a lot of moving parts on the Cards and poor play will cause those plate appearances to dwindle quickly.

Round 11

Best:  SP Drew Smyly, Montezumas – I swear I am more skeptical of my picks than anyone elses, but really liked Smyly here compared to other drafted at this point.  The 28.0 K% is just ridiculous and was only behind Kershaw, Sale, Sherzer, Jo-Fern, Strasburg, Carrasco, and Archer. Pretty good company there (all keepers). His BB% (7.3%) wasn’t quite up to the level of those guys, but is still pretty good and, at age 27, advancement in this area is to be expected. Health is always the thing, but he’s certainly healthy now and if you consider the SPs who went around this time (McHugh, Iwakuma, Shields, Gio), his question marks make it well worth it. 

Runner-Up: SS/3B Jung-Ho Kang, Prestige – If he wasn’t going to miss the first month, the hype machine would’ve pushed this guy into the top two rounds. Despite a very slow start to the season and inconsistent playing time, if you apply Kang’s 2015 rates to 600 ABs (vs. the actual 421) it would produce a 86/21/83/7/.355 line. With SS and 3B eligibility, that’s a keeper. There’s no reason to think he won’t improve either after a full year of adjustments. At 29, this guy is a star and I wish I had him.

Worst: RP Aroldis Chapman, Keepin – Guess what I hate more than RPs taken really super early? RPs that are taken really super early and are going to miss 20% of the season.

Runner-Up: OF Kole Calhoun, Ring – This pick was very out of character for Dagan based his aforementioned emphasis on guys who get on base. Calhoun is the antithesis to this rule. His line of 78/26/83/4/.305 become more watered down when you consider the likelihood that he’ll play in 159 games again, and that, at 28 with not much pedigree, more growth isn’t likely to come. And, yes, I realize Dagan’s roster will be littered with OBP guys who cancel out some of Calhoun’s shortcomings, but you know who also produced those exact same numbers at nearly the same age last year? Trevor Plouffe. He didn’t get drafted. In that lens, this is a reach for a guy who may help in three categories, but is more likely to be mediocre to below-average across the board. 

X-Factor:  SP Jeff Samardzjia, Anal – If he had a good spring, I would easily have handed this to Kenta Maeda, but he didn’t and you have to wonder if he’s just permanently become a member of the 4.50/1.30/170k club (think Ubaldo). They have their place, sure, but mostly they’re frustrating to own and not typically drafted this high. Orrrr… he could be the guy that dominated like an ace in 2014. At 31 in SF, this could go either way.

Round 12

Best: 1B/OF Wil Myers, Napalm – At this point in the draft, it’s good practice to start considering those once considered stars who may have been undervalued for clear reasons. Myers jumps to the top of players in this category. Health and ball park aren’t ideal, but he played well there last year and he’s moving to 1B full-time. His 2016 rates over 600 abs (vs. 223) translates to a 107/21/77/13/.336 line, which is a top 30 OF.  Factor in youth (25 yo) and pedigree (former top 3 prospect), and you’ve got potential for a solid keeper. 

Runner-Up: OF Delino Deshields, Urban – I really don’t like single-category guys and many speedsters fall into the R + SB and nothing else category. Deshields is not that. His speed (25 SBs, 76% steal rate) and patience (10.8 BB%), make his a much more reliable asset. His age (23) makes his nice 2016 look like the potential precursor to a 100/5/50/40/.350 season.

Worst:  SS Elvis Andrus, Keepin – I might hate this pick more than all of the rest. I know it’s not that early and I know SBs are important, but Andrus has been living off name rep and not actual production for years. This is just silly. It took him nearly 600 ABs to produce an imminently replaceable 69/7/62/25/.309 line. Jean Segura produced the same line with 100 less ABs and went ten rounds later. Barf.

Runner-Up: SS Brandon Crawford, Munchkins – Crawford is a bit like Andrus, just with emphasis on HR instead of SB. The OBP is a little better, but the walk rate is the same and it doesn’t help much with such a low AVG. Age 29 and a high K rate means 2015 might be the best we see from this guy and it’s just not that valuable at this point in the draft. 

X-Factor: SS Trevor Story, Montezumas – Fitting I guess that the other two SS in this round were the worst and second worst. It shows how difficult it is to fill this position effectively, which is why I decided to go with Story here. The pick wasn’t about spring training, other than it made it clear he was going to have playing time. It’s all about talent+opportunity and on-base skills, which Story has shown throughout his minor league career – not to mention the power/speed combo. However, if he struggles early like a lot of rookies do and Reyes comes back in a reasonable amount of time, it could be a short season.

Round 13

Best: C Brian McCann, Ring – At catcher, they don’t get much better. The thing about McCann is even though he produced a mighty 68/26/94/0/.320, he was ridiculously unlucky. This can be an overrated statistic, but when the BABIP is almost 70 points below the .300 baseline, it’s clear his numbers should’ve been even better. Great discipline (9.7 BB%) and power in Yankee stadium means another level could be coming in 2016. 

Runner-Up: SP Anthony DeSclafani, Cowhide – Last year’s 151/4.05/1.34/17 line in 184 IP was thoroughly uninspiring (I know, I drafted him), so it might be surprising to see him go this high. Except, one key point:  The improvement shown after he ditched his four-seamer and started using his sinker more – 9.1 K% and 1.3 BB% in the last two months – was ace like. He’s 25 with a full workload coming and enough improvement to be very optimistic, even with the oblique injury to start the season.

Worst: 2B/3B/OF Josh Harrison, Cowhide – Harrison moved all over my draftboard, but ended up as my 30^th ranked second basemen (not good). What we have from Harrison is one season of pretty decent production at a bunch of positions. Last season he sucked nuts. He wasn’t very special before 2014 either. Even with a .336 BABIP, he only hit four homers and scored 57 runs. He strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk enough, and isn’t fast enough (10 SB, 8 CS) to warrant this selection. 

Runner-Up: RP Ken Giles, Napalm – Giles comes with a lot of hype because of his Kimbrel-like K rate, but AJ Ramos had just as many Ks and a better WHIP and S+H. Giles also had a bad spring and there were whispers that Gregorson might get the closer gig back. But let’s be honest, he could be the top reliever, strike out 100, and get 50 S+H and I’d still think this is too high.

X-Factor: TIE Byung-Ho Park, Urban and Matt Moore, One Nut – I like both these guys on sheer upside. Both have substantial risk though. Park has big league power and hasn’t looked out of place against big league pitchers. The Fangraphs swing expert who nailed Kang last year thinks Park will be even better. Except he’ll get full ABs. Meanwhile, Moore didn’t look great last year and I hated him where he was drafted last year. But this is a new season and Moore has flashed dominance in the past. With health and a nice spring training behind him, it’s a great chance to take that this is the season when he blows up. 

Round 14

Best:  SP Jaime Garcia, Napalm – I’ve always had a soft spot for Jaime and really, he should be on my team this year. Unfortunately, this is the first time in a while he’s actually healthy to start the season, so others were all over him. Everything about him, from the 2.43/1.05 to the 75 QS%, 19.0 K%, 5.9 BB%, 61.2 GB%, and the glorious 111.8 KGB+, to even his age (29), is just lovely. If he were reliable for 30 starts, he might even be a keeper. But that’s a silly thought. Regardless, he’s great when he pitches, he’s really good. Good chance to take.

Runner-Up: 3B Mike Moustakas, Munchkins – I think Mous’ value takes a hit every year because so many of us have drafted him as a reliable source of production from a key position, only to be ultimately disappointed. The thing is, he almost always has recovered and finished with decent stats. At 27, his trajectory continues upward and 73/22/82/1/.348 is pretty darn good to begin with. Could be a keeper next year, even if he is streaky.

Worst: F’IN CLOSERS!!! – OK, after this, I’m done complaining. You can just assume that if you picked an RP before the 20^th round and your draft wasn’t essentially over, then I hate it and I hate you. Yes, yes, the closers that went in this round – Britton (Cowhide), Allen (Cowhide), Robertson (Donkey) – are all great. Their setup men all could’ve been had as FAs and all would have been fine RPs. 

Runner-Up: 2B/3B Matt Duffy, Ring – I acknowledge that one of my weaknesses as a fantasy player is stubbornly ignoring productive seasons from players with no pedigree. It just requires a longer track record to convince me. Enter Patrick Duffy here.  I know he’s only 25 and he hit 12 HR and stole 12 bases, while also mirroring his RBI and R outcome at 77, while posting a respectable .334 OBP. But there’s a few things glaring about that production. The power, for one, just doesn’t add up. He had a .133 ISO (think Carl Crawford) and only had 13 HR in 1,087 minor league plate appearances before joining SF in 2014. So, we’re not looking at a potential 20/20 guy here. Meanwhile, his .336 BABIP and measly 4.9 BB% suggests his OBP should be more around .310. Sorry, just not buying it yet. 

X-Factor: C Travis d’Arnaud, Prestige – The other side of that weakness is that I tend to cling to hope for top former prospects, especially ones who produce a little but just can’t seem to stay healthy. Enter Mr. Of Arnaud. Given a full season of health, his 2015 numbers (31/12/41/0/.340) could easily be doubled, making him a top 3 catcher. With ample pedigree and youth (27), it could happen. But there’s also a pretty ample injury history, making it more than a little risky.

Round 15

Best: C Devin Mesoraco, Mike Ehrman-Trout – This is around the time I thought about taking this guy too. The appeal of the 2014 numbers – 54/25/80/1/.359 in 384 ABs – over a full season of starts are just too delicious to ignore. He walks too and has ample pedigree. If he’s gonna blow up, it’s gonna be this season. Great chance to take, with minimal downside if he’s healthy because he’s a catcher and there’s always another Yan Gomes on the waiver wire.

Runner-Up: 2B Logan Forsythe, Napalm – Not a guy that jumps out at you on the field, but the more I examined the numbers, the higher I moved him up the ranks.  He could very easily be an 80/20/80/15/.350 guy, but knowing he’s leading off now may shift those numbers around. Regardless, he’s the regular second basemen and leadoff man now and is solid through and through, albeit not that exciting. 

Worst: C Salvador Perez, One Nut – I give the league credit for holding off on drafting him for so long considering how high Yahoo ranks him, but there’s a very important difference in AVG vs. OBP leagues. A .260 AVG is OK, you can deal with it from backstop. A .280 OBP is a category suck. Yes, that’s a 2.4 BB%, which is just so so terrible, only Jean Segura was worse. So then what do you got? 21 HR and 70 RBI. That’s just OK. I had Vogt, Grandal (even injured), Wieters, and Swihart above him, and would’ve much rather had several other guys several rounds later.

Runner-Up: C JT Realmuto, Mike Ehrman-Trout – Adam giveth, Adam taketh away. You get props for Mesoraco then screw it up by choosing a second catcher who you ultimately dropped before opening day? Not to mention, the aforementioned C options available. It’s Round 15! Teams trade very valuable players to get to this slot!

X-Factor:  3B Joey Gallo, Montezumas – Lots of good upside picks in this round, but the first NA gets the call here. After basking in the glory of my Sano pick last year, this was my target from the beginning. You just don’t easily find that kind of power. He Ks a lot, but no one cares when he walks 12.2% of the time and has a ridonculous 49.0 Hard% (second only to Giancarlo). He’ll be the first to get the call once a 1B, 3B, or OF is needed in TEX, though there are lots of great prospects behind him. Considering, there is no doubt he would’ve been kept if he had a full-time gig, it’s a good chance to take. But then again, it’s an awfully high pick to dedicate to someone who won’t be producing for at least a few months. 

Round 16

Best:  SP Vince Velasquez, Anal – This could’ve been the X factor, but decided I liked it enough to give it the top spot. Really, there were a bunch of good solid guys like Kyle Gibson, Jerad Eickhoff, E-Rod, and Jimmy Nelson, but the upside here is pretty exciting. His 25.1 K% was good enough to be in the top 20 in the league, even if it was only in seven starts. The 9.1 BB% leaves much to be desired, but the scouts rave about his stuff and he was good enough to expect him to deliver this season. The likely IP cap dampers his upside a bit, but the promise is palpable.

Runner-Up: 1B Chris Carter, Mike Ehrman-Trout – I’ve not held back my adoration for this hulking beast in past years. I’d guess he’s probably mentioned in at least the last three reviews. He is streaky, but he knows how to take a base (12.4%) and hit the ball hard (.228 ISO). He was also dreadfully unlucky with a .244 BABIP (.300 is the baseline). Now he doesn’t have any competition and is slugging in a great slugging park, so I really like his chances to approach 70/35/90/0/.340, which is humungously valuable in this spot.

Worst: SP Juan Nicasio, Prestige – Sorry, not buying it. Great spring and all, but no matter what sorcery Ray Searage employs, this is still a guy with a career 4.88 ERA and 1.47 WHIP (sorry, his 4.48/1.51 career away is not Coors’ fault). He’s always had good stuff, but he’s never been mistaken as a special player. I don’t mind taking a shot later in the draft, but there is some high quality guys available. Further, he’s been an RP for a while now. I imagine there will be some sort of cap on how many IPs he gets.

Runner-Up: OF Kevin Pillar, One Nut – Again, this guy falls into the category of no names who came from nowhere to produce a quiet but good season. While double-digit HR and 25 SB is nothing to sniff at (not to mention the leadoff position), I need more of a track record to commit this early of a pick to someone with no pedigree, bad walk rate (4.5%), seemingly lucky power (12 HR despite .121 ISO and 24.7 Soft%). Round 16 isn’t a late round flyer, but I feel like that’s what he should’ve been.

X-Factor: SS Jose Reyes, Anal – Almost put this in the worst category, so keep that in mind. This represents considerable risk given the lack of clarity of his potential suspension and the presence of a hot-shot replacement on a rebuilding team. However, with Reyes, there may be ample reward as he plays a shallow position and has a history of broad contributions. It’s just a monstrous question mark that may have been available in round 22.

Round 17

Best: OF Marcell Ozuna, Urban – Reading up on Ozuna in the offseason, I was surprised the number of analysts willing to give him a pass on last season. There’s not much underlying data that even suggest he was better than he was. The key number though is 24, which was his age last year. Then there is the 72/23/85/3/.317 line he posted at the age of 23. There’s a lot of boom in that bat. There’s also plenty of pedigree, a new manager, closer fences, a slot in the #3 position of the batting order, and a severe hesitancy by the organization to trade him despite numerous opportunities. So I’m all aboard for the rebound story.

Runner-Up: SP Kevin Gausman, Montezumas – Seems like I’ve owned this guy every year, waiting for the breakout. This is the year I’m cashing in. He’s been dicked around and moved in and out of the rotation since he was drafted, but this year the O’s are relying on him to be a cog in their rotation. The numbers suggest he’s ready, as the rates are all good-not-great and the K% is excellent at 21.9%. At 25, this is they year he becomes the stud everyone has been waiting for.

Worst: SP/RP Trevor Bauer, Munchkins – Welp, that’s what happens when you’re even just slightly behind on the latest news. CLE announced on draft day that Bauer was heading to the bullpen, so this pick does not carry the value it could have. He probably would’ve gone earlier and fell under the category of X-factor due to the fact that only spotty control is keeping him from stardom. Still, he’s a pretty decent RP arm and maybe more depending on how things go with the Tribe. He’ll get a chance eventually, that’s for sure.

Runner-Up: 1B/3B Travis Shaw, Prestige – Not buying that he is suddenly a regular or that the Sox have given up on the chubby panda. Even if he is, this is about five rounds too early to make this selection, creating lost opportunity for the new guy. Of course, this is H&T and he is a trendy Red Sox, so anything goes I guess.

X-Factor: TIE SPs Lucas Giolito, Donkey; Jose Berrios, Mike Ehrman-Trout; Julio Urias, One Nut – I like all these guys about the same, though the last one I like more for his arsenal and age than his 2016 contribution. That said, they’re all worthy of an NA slot and all will have a shot at some point this season, providing instant excitement. The question is only whether they come up and produce. The problem with using an NA on a pitcher is they are less likely to be an instant contributor. And there’s the issue of the fact that there are still plenty of valuable players around at this point in the draft and that the equally talented Tyler Glasnow went six rounds later.

Round 18

Best:  1B AJ Reed, Prestige – Keeping with his band of babies, Jeff takes the kids to school with this pick. Really, he’s the perfect NA guy because HOU has a spot waiting for him to occupy and the only way he gets the spot is if he produces. Once he’s in the Show, expect power and some on-base skills in the middle of a great lineup. Given his profile, there’s a very real possibility that this is last chance any of us had to draft this guy for the next 10 years. Whereas, those NA SPs are unlikely to make the difficult Syndergaard leap in one year.

Runner-Up: SP Nathan Karns, Ring – At this point in the draft, you’re filling in the middle of your rotation with either a volatility-proof veteran or some unproven upside. There was plenty of both in this round, so I just went with who I had ranked highest. Karns had a great line in TB last year at 145/3.67/1.28/9 in 145 IP, but the underlying numbers are even better – highlighted by a 23.4 K% and 9.2 SwStr%. He secured a spot in the SEA rotation and should enjoy an equally friendly pitcher park, while providing the best balance of risk/reward in the round. 

Worst: OF Evan Gattis, Moose – My only problem with this pick is without C eligibility and no hope of retaining it, he just kinda sucks quite a bit. His career OBP is below .300 and he obviously has zero speed and doesn’t ever hit high enough to even get his 162-game average above 70 runs. So he’s hurting you in one category, not helping in two others, and providing the same production as Luis Valbuena when he plays. Throw in a potentially power-sapping hernia operation in February and you’ve got surefire waiver wire fodder. 

Runner-Up: RP Andrew Miller, Napalm – Ok, the only reason I’m mentioning an RP here is he had just had his hand broken in a spring training game and likely could’ve been had later. That said, I’m also wondering if there will eventually be enough S+Hs to go around when Chapman gets back. 

X-Factor: SP Adam Conley, Cowhide – While Karns has the best risk/reward balance, Conley has the most risk and most reward. Admittedly a no name to me until a few weeks ago, his numbers in limited time last year show an SP with great stuff (10.1 SwStr%) and good control (7.5 BB%). He’s 26, so I can’t imagine they’re going to hold him to much of an inning limit. That said, he could completely flake out and be replaced by some of the various MIA garbage options in the next month.

Round 19

Best:  SS Marcus Semien, Ring – At this point in the draft, if you haven’t gotten your SS yet, you’re probably going to get a flawed hitter one way or another. Semien represents the last real opportunity to get a complete player with 80/20/60/20/.330 potential at a shallow position. He’s only 25 (one year older than Story) and came in at 65/15/45/11/.310 last year while going in and out of the lineup because of his defensive woes. Assuming his position is a bit more settled and he’s a bit more mature of a hitter, a big next step would not a surprise. He’s disciplined, with power and speed. Great get here.

Runner-Up: SP Aaron Sanchez, One Nut – This feels more like an X factor pick, but given the amount of veteran arms Jason had at this point in the draft, I liked the aggressive add to end of his rotation. Nothing about his 2015 performance screams “buy,” but the stuff is electric and he’s a former top prospect with a big arm and youth (23). He’s a bit erratic, but the promise makes this a compelling selection.

Worst: OF Brandon Moss, Prestige – I fell hard for Moss last year and selected him high, hoping CLE would turn him into the slugger OAK held him back from becoming. Instead, I got slightly injured but tough Moss, which is the worst Moss to have because he plays as a shell of his good self, which is thoroughly mediocre. Even with his stellar on-base skills, he finished with only a .304 OBP. Now he’s in this weird time share with Matt Adams, Matt Holiday, and Stephen Piscotty, where he seems likely to be at best a platoon guy who was not worth selecting at all.

Runner-Up:  SP Daniel Norris, Urban – The main problem with Norris is not just the nondisplaced fractures in his spinal cord and injury history, it’s really his performance at the big league level. His 3.75 ERA may not appear that objectionable, but the 4.63 xFIP is pretty nasty. Converting less than one-fourth of your starts to QS is also not great, and the 17.9 K% is just OK for a guy who was supposed to be a stud. He’s got pedigree and there’s still promise at the age of 23, but with the injury and recent performance he’s a clear wait-and-see taken in a contribute-now-mother-F’er slot.

X-Factor: OF Jorge Soler, Munchkins – The epitome of X-factor. Soler likely would’ve ended up as someone’s last keeper had Dexter Fowled not come in and fouled everything up. Now he’s a bench/platoon bat with loads of young power just waiting for an opportunity. He’s only 24 and had a killer playoffs, so there’s hope. The question is whether there will be opportunity.

Round 20

Best: 3B Nick Castellanos, Moose – I’ve never loved Castellanos as a prospect, but coming into his third big league season, I think this a great opportunity to see if he starts to deliver on the promise scouts think he has. At 24, he’s still young, even if the improvement has been slow. He does have a nice even stroke and doesn’t get cheap contact, so it would be easy to see his very replaceable 42/15/73/0/.303 line turn into a very solid 70/20/90/0/.330.

Runner-Up: SP Doug Fister, Anal – There’s nothing about last season that supports this award, but with his velocity back up to historical norms this spring, we could see the return of a guy who managed to convert 72% of his starts into QSs in 2014 and finished with a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. It’s never electric, and there is the issue of what he did to Andrew’s sister, but at this point in the draft, a reliable rotation guy is huge.

Worst: SP Alex Cobb, Prestige – I love me some Cobb. I don’t love me some occupying a DL slot for half the season. That said, not a lot of bad picks in this round.

Runner-Up: SP Wade Miley, Keepin – I don’t hate Miley. I like him a lot more in SEA than I did in BOS. But I don’t like Miley either. He’s very blah. Walks too many. Doesn’t K enough. Usually good for 7 and 4. He has an occasional good game, which is fine for the bottom of your rotation. Mostly, this rank is just a reflection of a pretty good round.

X-Factor: 2B/SS Trea Turner, Napalm – My NAs had Gallo, Reed, and Turner in the top four, so this is a clear win here for Gibby. In our league, the only way the NA slot becomes valuable is if they come up and contribute. When Trea comes up, he’ll quickly be in the leadoff spot and he’ll be running. Lots of potential here and a future 20/40 guy is possible.

Round 21

Best: 2B Jonathan Schoop, Munchkins – This is exactly the type of chance to take at this point in the draft. You’ve got pedigree, talent, and opportunity. Sure, there’s weaknesses, but he would’ve gone a lot sooner if his walk rate was more than 2.8% and his SwStr% wasn’t 17.5%. He’s a hacker through and through, but he’s only 24 and it doesn’t take a diploma from Wells High School to figure out what 15 HR in 305 ABs translates to in 600 ABs. That type of power just isn’t available at the keystone and could be insanely valuable.

Runner-Up: OF Domingo Santana, Montezumas – Like Schoop, this represents a killer combination of talent plus opportunity. One key difference in Schoop’s favor is more of a track record and position scarcity, but Domingo is at the top of his order while Schoop is at the bottom. He also has a history of very good on-base skills. If you take his production over 160 ABs last year and apply it to 600, you get a line of 75/30/98/15/.337. Pretty stellar.

Worst: 2B Yoan Moncada, Keepin – I love him, don’t get me wrong. But he’s not coming up this year, I’m pretty sure. If he does, it’ll be a cup of coffee. So, the only way he helps is if he has such a good season in the minors that he’s the top overall prospect and there is potential for him to join the bigs in early 2017. It’s a high unlikely scenario and a wasted pick.

Runner-Up: RP Jake McGee, Cowhide – It’s fine to start taking RPs, but take the right one. There’s not going to be a lot of wins in Denver this year. He’ll strike out guys, but not that many. K-Rod was taken two picks later and Tolleson early in the next round, so it’s a missed opportunity.

X-Factor: OF Michael A Taylor, Angry – Like Schoop and Santana, this is an chance to take a real talent. Except, he’s missing real opportunity. There’s also some issues with his talent, particularly the low AVG and poor walk rate. But 49/14/63/16 is damn good for a 25 year-old in 472 ABs. Get him a full time gig and smidge more patience and you got a potential keeper. I always look at him and see BJ Upton in his prime. It’s not a stretch.

Round 22

Best: OF Dernard Span, Donkey – You don’t get much less sexy than Span. That’s why you see all these young guys with big talent but no track record going higher, while a guy with a 162 game average of 97/6/58/26/.352 in his career slides. He’s only 32 and at the top of a good lineup, so this is tremendous value here for Mr. Shannon.

Runner-Up: SS Ketel Marte, Munchkins – The M’s have moved on from the likes of Brad Miller and Nick Franklin in recent years, both young SS prospects with seemingly high upside. Part of the frustration is they never gave them a shot. Yet, on comes this 22 year old speedster and they hand him the full-time job and bat him a key #2 spot. He was great in limited time, posting a 9.7 BB% with a .351 OBP and 8 steals. This could be real value.

Worst: RP Arodys Vizcaino, Ring – Sure, he’s got gas, but he’s on a crappy Atlanta team with competition for the closer role. There’s Ks elsewhere.

Runner-Up: RP Glen Perkins, Angry – Perk has been inconsistent or injured for a while now. Back and neck injuries limit both his effectiveness and durability. His Ks are going down and his ERA is going up. I like Pedro Strop with the next pick – and about 30 more Ks – much better. 

X-Factor: 1B/OF Mark Trumbo, One Nut – Who knows what to expect from this guy? But I guess that’s part of the appeal. The power is just immense and now he has playing time and a nice hitter’s park. The only issue is that OBP can be just terrible, to the point where it’s not even worth rostering him. Jason may have gotten a great rebound candidate, or a great liability. Either way, it’s worth the risk at this point.

Round 23

Best: RP Huston Street, Keepin – Look at that?! A closer as the best pick! It was a great spot to get a solid closer, even if he doesn’t K a lot of guys. Job stability is half the game and he’s got more security than most, and the Angels are likely to be competitive enough to get him 50 save opportunities this year. He fell pretty hard, so this was a smart grab for Pierce.

Runner-Up: SP Ubaldo Jiminez, Donkey – Ubaldo is like the Mark Trumbo of pitchers. You never quite know which version you’re going to get, but the really good one is really really good. Last year was up and down, but his 4.11 ERA is better if you take a look at his 3.83 xFIP and decent GB rate. The 21.2 K% is up there with the best of ‘em, so this is a great spot to get a potential mid-tier starter.

Worst: 1B/3B Tyler White, Prestige – White came literally out of nowhere to take the starting 1B position in spring training. Except, not really. He’s a fill-in until Reed is ready, which is great for Jeff since he draft Reed earlier. But that doesn’t mean White was worth a draft pick. They were going to give Reed more time in the minor anyway, and beating out Jonathan Singleton is no big accomplishment. Meanwhile, the first start of the season went to Marwin Gonzalez. Nothing to get excited about or fill a hole, which is what you’re looking for at this point.

Runner-Up: OF Nick Markakis, Angry – Ohh Nicky Mark, how do I hate thee! Let me count the ways! .080 ISO, .338 BABIP, 3 HR in 612 ABs, 2 SBs, 32 years old, and a SLG that is only seven points higher than his OBP. So you have a nice OBP... great. That makes you a one-category contributor.

X-Factor: SP Zack Wheeler, Ring – I would file this under the bad categories if it wasn’t so late and he didn’t have such cache. Unlike Cobb, I could see someone convincing themselves a good final two months could translate to a 2017 keeper. Therefore, there’s some real value. The big risk is having him occupy a valuable DL slot for 8-10 weeks.

Round 24

Best: 3B/OF Danny Valencia, Angry – I love this chance because the A’s sound like they’re going to be the first team to give him regular ABs in five years. He’s a great platoon guy. I mean 59/18/66/2/.345 in 345 ABs is awesome – a .864 OPS and .229 ISO? Nutso. Those rates will all go down once he faces lefties and, of course, he’s in OAK instead of TOR. But at this point, it’s a great shot to take.

Runner-Up: RP Brad Ziegler, One Nut – Ziegs has always been a great reliever. He doesn’t K much, but his rates are solid and S+H are going to be there on a pretty good team. In the last round, this is a great way to fill in the bullpen.

Worst: RP Jason Grilli, Keepin – Old, not good, bad team, hot-shot fireballer behind him. No thanks. There was, and continue to be, better options on the wire.

Runner-Up: SP Jon Gray, Munchkins – Just not the prospect he once was. The upper-minors and big league returns aren’t great and now he’s injured. There’s a lot of good fantasy prospects out there for 2016. He’s not one of them.

X-Factor: 2B/OF Chris Coghlan, Ring – Coghlan had a very similar line (with speed!) as Valencia at 64/16/41/11/.341, but right now he’s just a platoon guy. But if he could get full-time ABs this season and Dagan can wait this out, a 20/15 guy with on-base skills and 2B eligibility is amazing value right here.