Offseason Preview - Rankings

1.      Mike Gibson, S. Napalm (keeper: 8^th, draft: 2^nd)

Right where Gibby wanted to be when he called it a season around mid-June last year. He expertly managed the trades and the wire and somehow managed to get every great young SS in the game. Correa (22 HR, 14 SB, .345 OBP in half a season!) and Machado (102/35/86/20/.359) are legit top three players in a keeper league like ours, while Betts (92/19/77/21/.341) is also emerging.  Perhaps his most brilliant move, though, was grabbing the defensively-known but clear much more Lindor, who hit like a future 30/30 guy in half a season. The only reason for the low rank is the overwhelming amount of youth, teamed with the low value of the last two spots. Addison Russell has promise but that’s it after a pretty mediocre debut, and Rendon had a hard time getting back to normal after injuries, which, unfortunately, is simply who he at this point – always injured. I know a lot of people love Buxton. I’m not one of them, certainly not for next year. There aren’t a lot of extras to deal unless you really like Matz or think Urias is worth keeping. Eaton is good, but not a keeper. But that’s OK because Gibby is stacked in the draft. While not overly top-heavy with only one pick in the first four rounds, he has 14 picks in the next five rounds and is done after the 15th (for comparison, Kyle has two picks before the 15^th). While Dave grades out over Gibby here, Dave has more work to do with his keepers. Gibby is in great shape and could stand to improve his keepers with a couple stable, cheap vets before the draft comes round. This reclamation project is going quite well.

2.      Matt Watson (keeper: 5^th, draft: 7^th)

Russ had a quiet season in many respects, but status quo means a great start in the H&T career of Matt, who won the coin toss Tuesday night. Trout and Kershaw need little explanation, but JD Martinez’s 38 bombs and 102 rbi isn’t far behind, while Gerrit Cole (25/202/2.60/1.09) and Tanaka both have ace value. Tanaka is a bit of a health concern and there’s a little worry that he’ll never be the high-K he once was. Robbie Cano? I don’t know, but he’s not a bad sixth with a 82/21/79/2/.334 line at a generally weak position. Then you also have the promise of youngsters like Yordano and young sluggers Conforto and Gallo.  With a good spring, those guys could be the type to convince someone they’re keeper worthy. However, Ventura’s numbers (13/156/4.08/1.30) are probably not enough in a deep SP pool. Starlin Castro was once an annual keeper and may do better in NYY, but he’s more of a mid-draft flier. So, Matt has a great six to start his career, though those guys also represent excellent keeper currency if he wants to go in another direction.  Meanwhile, Russ’ one trade gave him a slightly higher score than the baseline (90), which is good enough for sixth best in the league. Not much work needed here (unlike his fellow newbie). It also puts a lot of pressure on Matt to not blow a perfect opportunity to get the championship Russ never got.

3.      Andrew Campbell, Anal Hershiser (keeper: 7^th, draft: 5^th)

Donaldson (122/41/123/6/.369) is an excellent top keeper and a long-timer for Andrew’s Anals. A healthy Springer would be a huge boon, as he essentially paced out to a 110/30/80/30/.360 line when spreading his numbers over a full season. Dee Gordon shockingly became more than just a dude with ridiculous wheels as he got on base at a nice rate as well. You gotta expect Nellie Cruz’s roids to wear out eventually, so he gets just a good grade here, but 44 HR in Seattle is nothing to sniff at. De Grom (23/205/2.54/0.98) is right there with a great group of young high K hurlers, and won’t have any pitch count limits this year. The last spot is a bit iffy, but Dozier’s power and position make him a very good option, even if his OBP left much to be desired (.307). Outside of those guys, there’s not a whole lot. C-Mart may be good, but if guys like Sonny Gray weren’t kept last year, I’m not sure I see him as a clear keeper for 2016. If one-category guys are your thing, you can get Billy Hamilton for a steal (pun intended), but his OBP is bad enough that it hurts you. But that’s OK because Andrew is in great shape in the draft with a pretty even board except for that huge extra first rounder. This may be low for Andrew as he already looks balanced and poised for a big season, but there’s potential he could move up a bit.

4.      Dagal Loisel, Ring of Fire (keeper: 3^rd, draft: 10^th)

In typical Dagan fashion, he took a ho-hum season (by his standards) and came percentage points away from a fourth championship. It was his first season without 100 wins, which is truly remarkable. The best part is he did this without mortgaging his future, only missing 12^th and 17^th rounders. His keepers are potent, led by the immortal Goldshmidt (103/33/110/21/.435) and the surprisingly speed Kris Bryant (87/26/99/13/.369). Votto’s resurgence (29 HR and .459 OBP!) is huge value in our league, but the biggest value may be behind the plate. Who would’ve known Kyle Schwarber would’ve become who is, which might just be the most valuable player in fantasy if he stays eligible at C and gets everyday ABs.  His production in 223 ABs last season projects out to a 134/41/111/8/.355 line over 600 ABs – from the catcher spot? Yikes. Outside of those four, Pence was hurt and Kipnis underperformed, but each have histories of being keeper worthy. A case could be made for Liriano as a keeper, but he may not get the interest in a flooded market and a history of volatility, same with Richards. Choo could be tremendous value, but doesn’t have the speed anymore and is a year removed from a terrible year. McCann had just HR and RBI and Duda (67/27/73/0/.352 in 471 ABs) wasn’t healthy enough to garner the totals necessary for a keeper 1B. Jay Bruce’s 26 HR and 87 RBI doesn’t make up for the .294 OBP and inconsistency. There’s some nice keeper currency here, but it won’t likely bring Dagan a lot. Not that he needs it.

5.      Chris Shomphe, I Ate the Munchkins (keeper: 4^th, draft: 9^th)

Shomphe hemmed and hawed at the deadline and was ultimately did not have enough conviction in his team to trade for a playoff run. The result is good draft board, with the 15^th and 18^th the only holes. He’s also got a great group of keepers, led by Bryce Harper and Miggy. He realized huge value in Draft Pick of the Year AJ Pollock (111/20/76/39/.367). On the pitching side, Syndergaard doesn’t have the overall number but the pedigree and preseason fawning by experts show he is well worth keeping. If we’re talking about good not great pitchers, Zimmermann (22/164/3.66/1.20, and now in the AL) and Quintana (25/177/3.36/1.27) fall under the “not good enough” category. Lorenzo Cain was sneaky good (101/16/72/28/.361), but has a long history of platoon-like output before the breakout season, so it’s hard to say he definitely belongs among the top 84 (14 team * 6 keepers, newbies). You gotta keep Puig, but time is running out on him to put together numbers that make him worthy of being a top draft pick every year. Carlos Santana is steady and good at 72/19/85/11/.357, but he is not likely to have C eligibility and was only OK in the power department, even if the speed was a nice surprise. There’s potential in Wong, VMart, Souza, and Kang, but they’re just not keepers. So there could be a bit of keeper currency here, but all in all Chris is shaping up to have a great group of keepers and a baseline draft, which is a great start.

6.      Dave Fox, Cowhide Joyride (keeper: 12^th, draft: 1^st)

There may have never been a draft board that looks so pretty after Dave expertly traded his assets, got more assets, and traded them. While he may be drafting longer than Gibby by a couple rounds, Dave’s picks are spread out and include two in the first and two in the second, as well as the 10^th and 11^th. That’s good because I think his keepers need a bit of work. Altuve is a legit stud, certainly, especially with the addition of some power (15 HR). Posey is just good though – a great catcher clearly, but when you look at the overall contribution to your numbers, 74/19/95/2/.379 is just good. Bogaerts is sort of in the same boat as his production is great for the position (84/7/81/10/.355), but wouldn’t fly if he was an outfielder. That said, he’s improving and the power will come, it’s just a matter of when. And while Corey Seager had a great first 100 ABs and should be kept given the pedigree, he’s more like a great sixth keeper in a deep group, not your fourth best guy. And, again, if we’re looking at the pitchers who were not kept last year, Wacha and Walker don’t standout as clear keepers. Walker’s late season resurgence makes for an interesting case given the upside. Lot’s of talent here. He could very well stick with his draft board and be fine, but it’d be the riskiest crop of keepers in some time.

7.      Adam Leech, Montezuma’s Revenge (keeper: 1^st, draft: 13^th)

This draft board is what happens when you sell your soul for postseason glory. I currently have no first or second rounder and only two picks before the 14^th. This would be an extremely poor draft board if we were to draft today. But we’re not and my team probably has more keeper currency than any other team in the history of the league. There’s the no doubters of McCutchen, Rizzo, and Abreu. Sano may as well be in that group as well as his rates from last year projected out to a 100/39/112/2/.385 line. I’ll be keeping Joc despite his late season struggles because the OBP, power, and youth is still tight. At 84/19/81/30/.337, Starling is a surfire keeper as well, with emerging power to go with his speed. Matt Carpenter was a beast last year as well – 28 HR and .365 OBP with 2B and 3B eligibility. It may be his last season, but it’s hard to doubt Ortiz’s production (73/37/108/0/.360). That’s eight legit keepers before you even get to the pitchers. Kluber, Harvey, and Hamels are all studs, and will fit nicely atop someone’s rotation. Tyson Ross quietly had 212 Ks and Salazar had 195 – though, again, SPs are deep. There’s promise in Stroman, Smyly, and Corbin as well, but you’re reaching there. Needless to say, that draft score and the overall rank should go up quite a bit once the deals start coming in.

8.      Jason Ouellette, One Nut Wonders (keeper: 2^nd, draft: 12^th)

Jason is in a similar boat as me, with a deep roster of talent that he will hope to use to patch up his draft board. His board isn’t nearly as bad, but the lack of a first rounder hurts. Arenado, Bautista, and EE are tremendous and make up a good chunk of his great keeper score. After that, Braun may not be as brawny (pun score!) as he was but 87/25/84/24/.356 in 500 abs is pretty damn good. JUpton meanwhile goes to a nice ballpark and even started stealing again, so that’s five right off the bat. Ellsbury will probably be kept, but with caution as the 66/7/33/21/.318 line wasn’t exactly produced in a small sample (452 abs), though health was certainly a factor. Kendrys had 106 RBIs to go with a .362 OBP, which would be a fine last keeper, even if it’s not sexy. And actually a Mous Tacos was quite productive and may be on the verge of a breakout. Jason’s glut of pitching makes it all the more ridiculous. Arrieta had one of the best seasons ever by a pitcher, but Chris Archer (10/252/3.23/1.14) and Bumgarner (22/234/2.93/1.01) weren’t too far behind. Meanwhile, Cueto has the keeper resume even if the numbers weren’t great. So there’s a lot to like. (BTW, new guys – don’t you dare keep a closer. I mean it. Jason will give you lots of reasons to love Chapman or Jansen, but they’re irrelevant now with S+H. Tony Watson was just as valuable last year and he wasn’t drafted). Anyhow, once Jason is done, I fully expect him to be in the top 5 of this list if not at the top. 

9.      Dan Plourde, Urban Achievers (keeper: 11^th, draft: 3^th)

The keepers here are a solid bunch, but overwhelming. The biggest issue is a lot of the 2015 value was derived from two sources who hadn’t been producing that in recent years. Cespedes’ 101/35/105/7/.328 was a bit out of character, while Pujols’ 85/40/95/5/.307 was well above recent production. One of the big issues with both is the OBP, which would reach Ryan Howard production if it falls again. There’s a lot to like about Maikel Franco’s production as a 45/14/50/1/.343 is great for half a season. Polanco’s platoon issues are concerning, but if he can fix that, he could easily outproduce fellow Pirate outfielder Starling Marte. That’s a big if though. Because right now he’s essentially Gregor Blanco. If you’re looking for unsexy keepers, look no farther than Brett Gardner’s steady 94/16/66/30/.343, but you could certainly do a lot worse. There’s still a lot of potential in Soler’s bat, but clearly we all misjudged his readiness before last season. On the pitching side, there’s a watered-down Felix (20/191/3.53/1.18) and an elite-but-restrained Jose Fernandez, who will surely be capped somewhere around 180 IP next year, making him look more like an elite 2017 keeper. So, there’s improvements to be made on the keeper side. The good news is Dan has a lot of draft currency to move. Though he doesn’t have extra early picks, he’s in a good position to make a big trade and still have a top draftboard.

10.  Chris Shannon, Donkey Punchers (keeper: 9^th, draft: 8^th)

Shannon’s roster was very deep last year, which kept him dangerous throughout the year. However, depth doesn’t help in the offseason unless there are a lot of clear keepers.  Chris’ keeper situation, at present, lacks upside beyond the potential for Strasburg to have a consistent, healthy season. There’s Prince (78/23/98/0/.378) and A-Gon (76/28/90/0/.350), who are clear keepers. Seager was good enough to keep, but not great (85/26/74/6/.328) while Calhoun had a really good year in only three categories (78/26/83/4/.308). Brantley is worth keeping as his injuries caused a dip in performance, but he produced enough (68/15/84/15/.379 in 529 ABs) to not have us lose sight of his 2014 breakout. What to make of Beltre and Pedroia? Just a dip in production, or this the new reality for these aging starts. Hanley is a no go anymore. Keuchel is amazing (27/216/2.48/1.02) and will be a great keeper, but Strasburg’s health issues never seem to completely go away. If he can spread 11/155/3.46/1.11 in 127 IP across 227 IP, then we’re talking. Sonny Gray was great, but 169 Ks in 208 IP is not elite, sort of vintage Jordan Zimmermanny. A lot of people love Lance McCullers (12/129/3.22/1.19 in 125 IP), as he could be on the verge of a breakout. So that’s a good, but not a particularly exciting group, which carries over into Chris’ draft board which is just about baseline with a minor hiccup in the late rounds. So, in summary, Mr. Shannon will have to work to get this grade higher. He may have to rely on his typically great drafts to get him among the top teams.

11.  Jeff Frizzell (keeper: 14^th, draft: 4th)

This is a situation where the keeper rank of 14^th doesn’t accurately reflect the work that needs to be done here, keeping his rank higher than perhaps some more worth teams. The problem here is upside. Freeman was hurt, but all in all a perfectly fine building block with upside. After that, though, we’ve got uncertainty and names. Let’s start with Hosmer, who is pretty great. The problem is he’s just pretty great, which makes him just OK at the deep 1B position (98/18/93/7/.363). Then you have Charlie Blackmon, who outperformed expectations and put together a great line of 93/17/58/43/.347. The problem is his lack of pedigree and his age (30 in July) makes this somewhat difficult to rely on. Then there’s Brandon Crawford; 21 HR an 84 RBI is excellent for a SS, but smells like an outlier and the other three categories are weak. You’d like Longoria’s numbers (74/21/73/3/.328) if they were in 400 ABs, but they were produced in 604 ABs and it makes you wonder if, at 30, this is where things start going downhill. Matt Holliday was injured, but his power and speed have been trailing off for years and he just turned 36. Pitching? Well, you really need to use your imagination to consider Verlander or Samardzjia as a worthy keepers again. There’s a lot of talk around Raisel, but that’s just talk. So, yeah, good luck with that group. The nice part is Jeff has the energy and draft pick currency to greatly improve his keeper situation very easily. It will be a very interesting offseason to observe for the new guy.

12.  Pierce Cole, Keepin it Real… (keeper: 13^th, draft: 6^th)

Keepin it real mediocre was the name of the game last year for this cagey vet. While he has some interesting pieces, Pierce could really use an infusion of offense to complement a great duo of SPs in Sale and Scherzer. The option at present max out at Corey Dickerson, who is hard to rely on given his health and the potential that he still might be traded. After that, you have Ian Desmond, who would only be kept in memory of past seasons because 69/19/63/13/.290 is far from keeper production. The fact that no team has met his contract demands says something as well. While Jason Heyward was once seen as a burgeoning star, his defense provides a lot of his real value, which doesn’t help us here. In 547 ABs, his line was 79/13/60/23/.359, which essentially makes him a glorified Matt Duffy. I like him in Chicago, but he’s not a top keeper. I like Yelich, but he had almost 500 abs to produce something more than 63/7/44/16/.366, so he’s clearly outside the top 84 players. You could always keep classic number one overall pick Rusney Castillo for old times sake? Wainright is not what he once was. He may be fine, but he’s not posting 200 Ks again, and Rodon is talented but raw and a 1.44 WHIP is tough to swallow from a keeper. With a pick score slightly above the baseline, Pierce might need to take a hit there to get that keeper score up and start 2016 on good footing.

13.  Kyle Baker, The Angry Pirates (keeper: 6^th, draft: 14^th)

This ranking surprised me a bit when I recalculated it, but there’s just a few keeper-related issues that caused the scores to be slightly below the higher teams. Teamed with a horrible draft board, the outlook just isn’t good at this point. At the top, there’s Giancarlo, a magnificent piece to build around. Frazier too has produced enough (82/35/89/13/.309) to be optimistic about his potential in the Windy City. Adam Jones has a long history of good production in three categories, but SB and OBP don’t help you. Kemp’s return was good enough to hold on to, but difficult to be optimistic about improvement (80/23/100/12/.312). I would have a hard time keeping A-Rod or Tex despite their nice OBPs and 30+ HRs given their injury histories and production pre-2015. Fowler is nice (102/17/46/20/.346) but more of a complement than a keeper. Carlos Gomez is the big wildcard here. I could see someone being really excited about his potential as much as I could see someone really scared off by last year’s injury-riddled season.  I expect even more improvement from Carassco this year (17/216/3.63/1.07), so he’s fine. Price’s shiny numbers (24/225/2.45/1.08) might take a step back in Boston, but obviously he’s a lock. Lester (21/207/3.34/1.12) is always kept and probably will be again. Nelson and Pineda had there moments, but are not close to being keepers. So, there’s some potential keeper currency with which to deal and improve Kyle’s really bad draft board, which features picks in the 8^th and 9^th, then nothing until the 17^th. But I have a hard time seeing him get to the baseline. If Kyle is willing to keep some of his borderline guys and deal a couple big guns, it could improve his situation greatly.

14.  Brian Bishop, Moose is Loose (keeper: 10^th, draft: 11^th)

This might be a little unfair of a ranking, but the simple explanation is keepers 1-3 are really good, 4 is pretty good, and 5-6 are OK, and the draft board is below-average. If we could count on Tulo to be healthy and Colorado-productive, he’d rank higher than he does and boost the score. But we can’t and 77/17/70/1/.337 is really not at all interesting. There’s a lot of track record to provide hope though. If Chris Davis’ 2014 was as good as his 2013 and 2015 (100/47/117/2/.361), I’d give him a higher score as well. But right now it’s just really good. Grienke was stunning at 30/200/1.66/0.84 and is also really good, though Arizona won’t be as friendly to him as Dodger stadium. Those three are really good. CarGo’s 87/40/97/2/.325 was great, but the last two categories give me pause to consider him elite still. Not to mention, if he’s traded, that could hurt considerably given his home output. Shields posted another 200Ks but it’s slightly alarming he was only able to garner a 3.91/1.33 in Petco. Kinsler is fine, but 94/11/73/10/.342 is just a good last keeper at this point. Outside of those six, Ryan Zimmerman, Gattis, Miller, and Teheran were only OK in 2015, so it’s hard to see much keeper currency here. The draft board and the keepers aren’t awful, they’re just slightly below most other teams.  The good news is, Brian can stand pat and be just fine. The keepers are still a fine, balanced group and the draft board is only missing a 10^th early on, so with Brian’s drafting skills, I expect he will be right in the thick of it this year.

Coin Flip for the New Guys

Updated All-Time Standings

High & Tight Legend Hangs ‘Em Up

WELLS, ME – After significant deliberation and amidst much speculation, League Founder and Prestige Worldwide Manager Lars Borssen formally submitted his resignation Sunday evening, ending an 11-year career in a league he started in 2005.

Borssen said growinh work and family obligations has gradually made it more difficult for him to keep up with what was once one of his favorite pastimes.

“I just don’t have the time. Work and kids have taken my life over,” said Borssen in a message to Commissioner Adam Leech on Sunday.  “Maybe in a few years when the kids go to school.”

“I’m proud of what I started and the fact that it has been around for  12 seasons is pretty cool, and how competitive it is.”

Borssen falls just shy of being the sixth member of the 1,000 win club, ending his last season with 982 and an overall winning percentage of 44.3%. A perennial top team, Prestige Worldwide’s had three straight years of at least 100 wins (2009-2011). However, performance in the years following was varied, including two last place finishes.

The infiltration of fatherhood and the impact on the league has reached near epidemic levels. It already claimed original owner Russ Stutsky in the offseason, despite one of the best groups of keepers in the league. It has also been blamed repeatedly for owner’s waning interest and forgetfulness at various points. So much so, Commissioner Leech has considered placing a moratorium on newborns for the upcoming season.

“This has to be stopped,” said Leech. “We’ve lost too many good men to procreation and so called ‘adult responsibilities.’ Therefore, I’ve instructed our legal team to investigate the potential for action to stop this nonsense so we can focus on what is most important:  fantasy baseball.”

As the first person in the league to have children, Leech said he understands the time commitment can be difficult. He encouraged fellow owners with young children to consider that there can be nothing more satisfying than cruising through box scores during some of the more tedious fatherly duties.

Leech, however, was quick to praise Borssen for his hard work and dedication.

“I still consider Lars the best commissioner I have ever played under, and that says a lot. I remember passively accepting his invitation to join Nolan Ryan Uppercuts in 2005, which morphed into a keeper league the next year.  For me, it eventually became an obsession,” said Leech.

“Since taking over for him in 2011-12, I’ve come to appreciate the work that is involved. His tenure wasn’t easy, but he was excellent at assessing the situation and knowing when an executive decision needed to be made or when something had to be put to vote. He made it fun, but also realized it needed to be fair and treated with respect.”

Among Borssen’s major accomplishments as commissioner was the successful ousting of perennial bottom-dweller Troy Brown, replacing categories like batting average and wins with on-base percentage and quality starters, starting the league blog, building the constitution, overseeing the recruiting of future league champions Jason Ouellette and Brian Bishop, and implementing penalties for poor play.

“One of the more underrated qualities of Lars was his willingness to adapt to make the league better. He never thought it was good enough, which is the only reason it has survived and flourished over 12 years,” said Leech. “He may have not won a championship, but his place in the overall standings don’t reflect how good he was at this. He built the foundation for what many consider to be the best fantasy league they’ve ever played in.”

The loss of Borssen and Stutsky, leaves the league with only four founding members remaining: Leech, Dave Fox, Pierce Cole, and Dagan Loisel.

Commissioner Leech is in the process of securing two replacements and is expected to formally announce the new league members in the coming days.

When hearing the news of Borssen’s retirement, long-time player Evan Longoria was visibly moved when talking about his departing manager.

“I remember when Mr. Borssen drafted me in the 10^th round of the 2008 draft. No one else believed in me. I saw guys like Rich Hill, Brett Myers, Brad Hawpe, and Jeff Francoeur go ahead of me and I almost gave up,” said Longoria, wiping a tear. “But he chose me and I’ve never wanted to be on any other team. After eight years together, we’ve become more than colleagues. We’ve become friends. I’ll always love Lars and am dedicating my 2016 season to him.”

Following Borssen’s announcement, Leech issued a proclamation stating that the league championship series will henceforth be called the Borssen Championship Series.

“The league won’t be the same,” said Leech. “But we have to move forward. I hope one day he comes back, re-invigorated. There will be something missing this season. You don’t just replace guys like Lars or the institutional history and appreciation for the league and the game.”