2014 Survey

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Past Precedent - 2013 Offseason Trades

2014 Keeper/Pick Preview

Prestige Worldwide

Draft picks:  Late season underperformance and subsequent apathy leads to a boring draft board made up of all his original picks.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Prestige Worldwide	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Keepers: Edwin Encarnacion (90/36/104/7/.370 and, I believe, 3B eligibility again) and Evan Longoria (91/32/88/1/.343) are the building blocks here. After that, there’s a lot of question marks and mediocrity. I assume Mark Trumbo, with his 34 HR/100 RBI season and new home in a hitter-friendly park makes the cut, but there’s no escaping that his two category prowess comes with an atrocious .294 OBP (.268 in the second half) that is not just bad, it’s a major hindrance that impacts the team on a weekly basis. Jayson Werth had an excellent second half and ended the year at a very good and well-rounded 84/25/82/10/.398, but, ugh. Just doesn’t have the consistent track record since arriving in DC.  Curtis Granderson is in a new park and a year older coming off a bad injury; 2012 seems like a distant memory. Nellie Cruz (team, PEDs, injuries)? CC Sabathia(50 QS%, 4.78 era, 1.37 whip)? Mike Minor (pretty good, not great, little lucky)? Jimmy Rollins (universally awful)?  Too bad Doc retired. Commish might need a trade here. 

Montezuma’s Revenge

Picks: Only one big hole in the second, which will be difficult to fill, but with some surplus keepers, I should be able to fill the holes in 12, 14, 15. 

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Montezuma's Revenge	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	0	1	1	1	2	4	1	0

Keepers:  A decent, not great group, with more depth than top-end talent. Justin Upton has the greatest upside and still is young (26), but he may have plateaued and only attempted nine sbs. Anthony Rizzo has star potential but had lousy luck last year (.258 BABIP); his OBP was still 90 points over his average, showing promise for the .323 OBP if the AVG comes up a bit. This could be his breakout year, or the year he shows everyone he’s just a middle of the road option at 1B. Jean Segura came out strong and hit a wall late in the year, but the power/speed promise (12 hrs, 44 sbs) makes him a top option at a shallow position. Cole Hamels is a solid number one, converting 75.8 of his games to quality starts while striking out 22.3% of batter. Shin Soo Choo signed his way into a great situation in Texas, hitting behind Leonys Martin is a lot better than a pitcher, providing more RBI chances to go with the stellar .423 obp.  Jose Fernandez is 21 and already a superstar; the only thing keeping him back is if the Marlins try to control his IP. That still leaves compelling keeper options in Gerrit Cole (3.11/1.17, 73.7 QS%, 21.3 K%), Brian McCann (age 30, Yankee stadium, position flexibility), Brandon Beachy (back from TJS), Craig Kimbrel (92 saves and 214 ks in two years), Matt Wieters (former keeper with promise), Patrick Corbin (legit 3.41/1.17, 71.9 QS%, 178 ks), Justin Masterson (3.52/1.21, 188 ks in 189 ip), and George Springer (106/37/108/45/.411 in AA and AAA in 2013).

Cowhide Joyride

Picks: Dave worked his way into a great pick situation, heading into the draft with a monumentally better pick status than anyone else. With 12 picks in the first six rounds, he should have great depth. Of course, he also might need to spend to upgrade keepers.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Cowhide Joyride	1	2	2	3	2	2	1	1	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0

Keepers: Dave kept trading until the bell rang on the open trading period, to the point where he may not have realized he didn’t have six keepers left.  He’s got Posey and he’s got Price, and they’re really really good. Then he’s got, well, question marks. Hosmer is probably in based on his second half, but 86/17/79/11/.353 in 623 abs (15th most in the league) just doesn’t cut it at a premium position. Still just 23, perhaps a breakout season is coming, but the line drive percentage doesn’t suggest big power. Belt had a similar line at 76/17/67/5/.360 in 120 less abs, but is still just a guy. Jennings has been a keeper perhaps for too long because 82/14/54/20/.334 is sort of like keeping Alejandro De Aza with fewer RBIs. Gyorko is interesting with 15 second half homers, but hardly a keeper. Oscar Tavarez and Taijuan Walker have promise but neither is expected to open the season with the club. Is that worth a fifth/sixth rounder? Expect a trade or two here.

Overrated

Picks: A small gap in rounds 13-15 is nothing considering this team’s dominance last year. Could fill it up easy, but doesn’t really have to.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Overrated	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	1

Keepers:  Easily the best group of size in the league. If it were a re-draft league, five of his six would be legit first rounders in Trout (redefining WAR excellence), Cano (1B production from 2B), CarGo (at 2013 rates, he would’ve produced a 101/37/98/30/.367 line in 550 abs), Hanley (like CarGo, with a full season he’d have had a 112/36/103/18/.402 line), and Kershaw (81.8 QS% is insane, 1.83 era is insane...r) – and Jose Bautista is a pretty damn good sixth. This, and his pick status, make Russ the early favorite for the regular season title… again. Actually, he could stand to downgrade a keeper and acquire some picks. That said, not sure any of his other guys should be considered keepers. Joe Mauer might be the best and he won’t be catcher eligible next season, severely reducing his long-term appeal. You could make a case for Jeff Samardzija (3.54 xFIP, 23.4 K%) and Shelby Miller (22 years old, 3.06 ERA, 23.4 K%), but you wouldn’t convince me. We have had some damn good pitchers not get kept in recent years, including the AL Cy Young winner last year, and Shark and Shelby fall well short of where Scherzer was heading into 2013. Travis d’Arnaud may get there some day, but not now.

Sexual Napalm

Picks:  Gibby did a nice job balancing his roster to remain in playoff contention, while executing his two-year plan, which apparently involves not picking in the last six rounds. He sold at a discount at times and didn’t acquire extra early picks, but seven in rounds 13-14 is nice.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Sexual Napalm	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	4	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Keepers:  Some very good, young options here. Yu Darvish can throw some stinkers on occasion (his 65.6 QS% is on the low end of the top tier pitchers), but not many starters strike out 32.9% of the batters they face. We could have our first 300K season since Randy Johnson and Pedro. Strasburg is obviously talented, while Carlos Gomez’s numbers may surprise you (80/24/73/40/.338) and he could get better, though that .344 BABIP is awfully high. Dom Brown was obviously a surprise, but he had the pedigree to make him a classic post-hype sleeper. He’ll get cold at times, but he’s likely to hit 30 HR. Beltre continues to be productive and Freddie Freeman could be on the brink of a Goldschmidt-like breakout (minus the sbs) at the tender age of 24. That gives Gay Santa a solid six, while Yadier (68/12/80/3/.359) could very well be a keeper, but I find him perpetually overrated. Yes, he plays every day, but in an OBP league, a guy with a .319 AVG should do better than .359; and with a .338 BABIP, that should go down, and limit his overall contribution. Zach Wheeler is intriguing but wild (10.7 BB%, 4.1 BB/9), while Danny Salazar is getting a lot of early hype for someone who wasn’t thought of as a prospect a year ago, though you can see why with that Darvishish 11.3 K/9. Sonny Gray may be the best of the three (24.8 K%, 53.6 GB%, favorable park), but still falls something short of a top-84 overall guy.

One Nut

Picks: With five picks in the last two rounds and eight in the last five, he’s going to be the busiest owner late in the draft unless he can trade. Openings in 10, 13 and 14 aren’t too damaging.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
One Nut Wonders	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	3	1	3	2

Keepers: A good group, but the names look better than the production in many cases. AGone is great, but 22 HR and a .342 OBP (7.3 BB%) keeps him in the tier below guys like Fielder, EE, and Freeman. Kinsler (84/13/71/11/.344 in 545 abs) hasn’t been great in a couple years now and it’s hard to fathom that he’ll suddenly do better in a bigger park at the age of 32.  He’s certainly not getting faster, stealing only 15 bags in 26 tries. Reyes was productive when healthy, but a leg injury kept him from stealing even when he played (2013 rates in 382 abs project 22 sbs in 55). Not going to complain about Adam Jones’ huge 100/33/108/14 line, but that .318 OBP (3.6 BB% is awful) knocks him down a bit. Felix isn’t a top 3 overall SP anymore but he’s still incredible and constant. Matt Moore has some serious talent and serious flaws. His 4.31 xFIP and incredibly low .259 BABIP and .212 BAA suggest major regression could be coming, while his 51.9 QS% and 11.8 BB% were pretty lousy – hardly worth the good/not great 8.6 K/9. He is young though, so a step forward in the control department is certainly possible. Elsewhere, AJ Burnett performed like a keeper (lead all starts in K%+GB%-BB%) but he doesn’t have the long-term consistency to warrant it, and is considering retirement at the age of 37. Brandon Phillips had great production in the cleanup spot with 80/18/103, but he doesn’t steal anymore (5 sbs in 8 tries) and his OBP (.310) is damaging. Like closers? Me either, but Chapman and Jansen are damn good. Former keepers VMart, ARam, Dickey, Lester, Gallardo just don’t got it anymore, and Buchholz is not consistent enough.

Ring of Fire

Picks: Couple holes in 10 and 13, but overall a full set of picks for Dagan. Could fill one with a trade.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Ring of Fire	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	3	2	1	1	1	1

Keepers: A good group led by Goldy (103/36/125/15/.401), Dagan’s league of six comprise mostly of second tier types. Votto is an OBP league dream at .435, but 101/23/73/6 keeps him out of the top tier. Similarly, Bruce is very productive in some categories (89/30/109) and not others (7 sbs, .329 obp). Pence had a tremendous year at 91/27/99/22/.339 and could very well keep it up this year. The SBs may look like an aberration when considering his previous high was 18, but he converted a legit 88% of his steal attempts. Ryan Zimmerman is always good for at least one DL stint, but he can get very hot and he has solid stats across the board for the position. Zobrist is a perennial keeper, but tough to justify it this year with a pedestrian 77/12/71/11/ .354. What to do about Matt Kemp? I imagine no one this side of LA is more frustrated with him than Dagan. You could make a case for Napoli if he still had catcher eligibility, but he does not. Again, not a fan of keeping closers, but Greg Holland is a bad, bad man (40.4 K% !!!!).

Moose is Loose

Picks: Late season acquisitions cost him a couple early picks, but I’m sure the two-time champ doesn’t regret it.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Moose is Loose!	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	1	2	1	1	3

Keepers: Round 12… Imagine the possibilities for your team had you looked past the rotation depth or low-tier SS and took a shot at Chris Davis – 103/53/138/4/.370... amazing. Brian road that horse (and Alfonso Soriano’s 18 second half HRs) to a championship. He’s got Tulo coming back, hopefully healthy. His 2013 rates (projected at 89/31/101/1/.391 over 550) continue to place him a tier by himself if he can stay on the diamond. Grienke’s 7.5 K/9 is a bit concerning, but he’s overall a great guy to have behind Cliff Lee, who continues to dominate (77.4 QS%, 25.3 K%, 3.7 BB%). At 22, Julio Tehran’s line (3.20/1.17, 22.0 K%) is intriguing enough to take a shot as a keeper, but if he plateaus, it’s not going to be a keeper-worthy season. Beltran is still pretty good, but not great (79/24/84/2/.334 in 554 abs), even in Yankee Stadium. Billy Butler pretended to be a keeper for a couple years, but he’s just not that good for a DH (62/15/82/0/.374 in 582 abs) considering the other options. I’ve been pouring water on Elvis Andrus’ viability as a keeper for years; 91 runs and 42 sbs is great, don’t get me wrong, but 4 homers and .328 obp is decidedly not. He’s making it on name recognition. I can’t make the case for Chase Headley (59/13/50/8/.347 in 520 abs), can you? Oh, and if anyone is looking at Travis Wood seriously, dig a little deeper; 4.50 xFIP, .218 BAA, .248 BABIP suggests major regression is coming to the Windy City.

Donkey Punchers

Picks: Chris lost his second rounder, but he’s overall in good shape for someone with such a deep roster.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Donkey Punchers	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	1	1	2	2	1

Keepers: Chris has a number of intriguing options that could potentially turn into either better keepers or draft picks. Prince Fielder may have had just an OK year by his standards, but he will be a hot, sweaty beast in Texas and is sure to surpass the 25 hrs of 2013. Matt Holliday may be boring, but it’s hard to argue with the production (103/22/94/6/.389 in 520 abs) and the consistency. Meanwhile, Adam Wainright was arguably the best starter in 2013, converting 76.5% of his starts to QS, striking out 219 and an xFIP-supporting 2.94 era. While Waino lead the league in IP, Shields was close behind and posted solid, keepable stats in line with past production. Gio had a nice, similar line as well, both approaching 200 ks again. Pedro Alvarez presents issues similar to Trumbo, with outstanding production in two categories (36 hr, 100 rbis) and not much else (.296 obp). However, it’s an easier decision here, as it presents great value at a premium position. That’s six good guys, and there’s plenty more. No one would argue with Matt Carpenter as a keeper with a 126/11/78/3/.392 line, Yoenis wasn’t great but the power/speed potential is enticing, Josh Hamilton is tough to just give up on given past production, and Homer Bailey is certainly worthy after posting a 20/199/3.49/1.12 in his age 27 season. Jered Weaver isn’t who he used to be but he’s only 30 with a 70.8 QS%, and could prove worthwhile. Cueto, Cobb, Wilson, and Seager all have their attributes as well, though fall a bit short.

Keepin it Real

Picks: Per usual, one of the least active owners in the trade market doesn’t have any holes to speak of, but he’s got plenty of keeper currency to make a splash.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Keepin it REAL...	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	0	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	1

Keepers: Another guy with some options that could be valuable to teams with a keeper shortage. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Scherzer, and Sale are all easy calls and were key to Pierce’s success last year. Beyond that, I find it hard to see a situation where Desmond hasn’t earned another year as a keeper after posting a 77/20/30/21/.331 line from a premium position. Heyward is a tough call because he’s never really produced the way he is supposed to. That said, he’s 23 and certainly has the tools and on-base skills to breakout at any point. That would make six, but it’s hard to look past Alex Rios’ 83/18/81/42 (in 49 tries)/.324, Victorino’s 82/15/61/21/.351 (477 abs), or Ortiz. That’s not even mentioning one of the best pitchers of 2013; Anibal Sanchez’s 69 QS%, 27.1 K%, 2.7 BB%, 2.57 era, 1.15 whip is definitely a consideration. Also, one has to consider Pierce’s irrational affection for Sandoval and not the 42 pounds he lost over the winter. Lucroy also quietly had one of best seasons for a catcher with 18 hr, 82 rbi, 9 steals, and a .340 obp. Someone could get sentimental on Utley or Lincecum, or forget Lawrie’s mediocrity and take a chance there as well. Pierce may not have the high end guys, but he’s deep.

The Angry Pirates

Picks: Draft board is full. Kyle may need the couple extra middle picks to upgrade keepers.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
The Angry Pirates	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1

Keepers: I was surprised Kyle didn’t have more options, but there are some guys on the roster who flopped in 2013 but may be worth taking a shot at. The top is very good with Kipnis establishing himself as a top 2B (86/17/84/30/.366) and Cutch being Cutch. And, of course, you have to keep Puig to see what he will do with a full season. Really, though, expectations should be tempered a bit. His rates over 550 abs worked out to 95/27/60/16/.391. Very good, but nothing otherworldly and he is just 23. I’m guessing Allen Craig would make the cut at this point, but I’m not sure he should with just OK stats (71/13/97/3/.373) in a decent sample size of 508 abs. Mark Teixeira is certainly intriguing if he’s healthy, though his post-prime production has been iffy for the position. Starlin Castro? I doubt it. At 666 (mark of the devil!), only Machado had more at bats last season and all he could muster was 59/10/44/9/.284? Absolute garbage. Even his promise and youth (23 yo) can’t make up for that. Wilin Rosario is a bit of a darkhorse, with 21 hrs and 79 rbis in 449 abs as a 24-year-old backstop with pedigree. JJ Hardy’s 25 hrs from the SS position are fun, but there are some very unproductive periods that make him a regular on the waiver wire. Kendrys could be a mundane consideration if he lands in a home park-accentuating spot.

THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS

Picks: A few holes in the middle, but nothing too bad. Still you’d expect a team that was so dreadful last year to be in better shape. Can’t say I blame him for giving up after last year’s dismal results, but this team has a lot to look forward to in 2014.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	3

Keepers: If Casten isn’t coming back, can I just switch rosters with him? Really, Miggy, Braun, Giancarlo, Wright, and Santana are a pretty great five-some to start with. Got to expect Braun to bounce back and Stanton to be healthy someday, while Wright’s rates in 430 abs translated to 81/23/74/22/.390 over 550. It now sounds like Carlos Santana might have C/1B/3B eligibility this year and a pretty .377 obp heading into his age 28 season. The sixth keeper could be a project on the roster, but a trade would probably make more sense. Everth has 50-steal potential, and Brandon Moss’ numbers are outstanding for not getting fulltime abs (73/30/87/4/.337).  Or you could take a shot on Billy Hamilton’s speed, or perhaps Miguel Sano’s tremendous promise. None of those options really seem worth what is essentially a sixth round pick though. If not Casten, maybe someone can do something interesting with the spot. Hopefully Brandon reconsiders and the Munchkins return.

Anal Hershiser

Picks: Untouched on the front end, clustered in the middle, little at the end. Looks like a pretty decent board, but there’s some imbalance in the keepers that may need to be addressed.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Anal Hershiser	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	2	3	2	1	1	0	0	0

Keepers:  This group is headlined by its aces. While Verlander’s name naturally rises to the top, his 2013 production (22/217/3.46/1.31) is clearly behind the real ace in Madison Bumgarner (22/199/2.77/1.03).  You also really have to like what Iwakuma did (23/185/2.66/1.01) in what was one of the more surprising seasons of 2013. All are good option. The offense is a different story. I think Wil Myers will be really good, and I think Josh Donaldson can reproduce 2013, but neither is a sure thing. In fact, there’s no sure things on the offensive side. Michael Bourn was terrible (23 for 35 in SBs, .316 obp) and the promise of Adam LaRoche and Aaron Hill was left in 2012. Meanwhile, Andrew has a very difficult decision to make on Matt Harvey, who he acquired for Strasburg and now lost him for 2014 to TJS. Do you trust Michael Wacha over a full season? There’s worse things than starting off with really good pitching, but there’s also a reason people make offense a priority – it iss more predictable and less deep. Andrew has some difficult decisions to make.

Urban Achievers

Picks: Dan did a great job, dealing, reloading, and dealing again, and has one of the prettiest draft boards. He doesn’t have a lot of extra early picks, but he’s done drafting after the 18^th and that’s a good thing.

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Urban Achievers	1	2	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Keepers: Youth abounds for Dan, headlined by Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Starling Marte, all of whom ooze with talent and are surefire keepers in no limit league such as this. That said, Machado lead the league in at bats and only posted a 88/14/71/6/.314 line, which is roughly the equivalent of Jed Lowrie. But, he’ll be 21, and many of those doubles will turn into homers some day.  Marte was a surprise with a 83/12/35/1/.343 season and should be able to reproduce that, perhaps with a bit more pop. Then we have two injured oldies in Matt Cain and Albert Pujols, both perennial keepers who had very bad years by their standards. Providing Albert is healthy, he’s likely a keeper. However, the dropoff is real and he should be fearful of the age issue. Guys fall off at some point. Cain should be pretty safe, but is really just a good option due to the lack of K prowess. After that, Jurickson Profar was kept last year, so I imagine that is the way he will go, but Xander Bogaerts is equally as intriguing, while Anthony Rendon could develop into a keeper someday as well. None of those guys are worth a six rounder at this point, but the potential is there. The question is whether Dan is too young. You can’t just wait for a team forever.