Friday, September 28, 2012

One Nut, Two Championships - Profile of a Champion

It takes some luck to become a champion in High & Tight. It takes skill to win multiple championships.

Up until this year, only Dagan had won more than one championship (three) and with his recent crown, Jason became only the second two-time winner in the history of H&T.

Deservedly maligned over the years for his often insane trade proposals, the One Nut Wonder pulled off a doozy in one of the first trades of the year, capitalizing on Emilio Bonifacio’s quick start and trading him to Andrew along with Henderson Alvarez and next year’s second rounder in exchange for Konerko, CJ Wilson, and an eight rounder.  For all the uproar over Troy trades, this was easily the biggest take of the year. Jason squeezed all of the quality out of Wilson, then dealt him away to Casten much later in the year for the second rounder he lost in the initial trade. A ballsy move considering he was in the thick of the race for the regular season championship. He received some flak, but ultimately he was the one smiling in the end.

“(That was) easily my gutsiest deal of the year,” he said.  “I had no idea that deal would work out that well, but at the time, I thought it was good value and my plan was to swing that 8th rounder into a pitcher of similar quality, which ultimately proved to very difficult to do.

“For me, it’s always about value. If I feel like I am getting the best overall value in a deal I will pull the trigger. I think some people say that, but don't have the balls to pull the trigger on a deal sending a great pitcher like CJ Wilson to arguably my stiffest competition for picks”

Ironically, Jason started the season whining about how much he hated the draft (even though he should’ve been thanking the fantasy gods for Braun’s successful avoidance of a suspension). He had dealt a lot of picks the year prior and sacrificed draft position in 2012, which left him with large gaps in between picks – time to think about every player going off the board that he could’ve had.  When he went to draft, he often discovered the player he wanted went right before he was queued up.

He wasn’t the only one who hated his draft, debuting at #11 in the weekly power rankings initially.  And for good reason. He kept Utley and drafted Howard, neither of which appeared in a lineup until very far into the season. He picked a mediocre catcher (Yadier – ended up being an MVP candidate) and was starting Mike Carp and Gordon Beckham, while his rotation looked weak beyond the top three (Shields, Weaver, MMoore).

That said, the rankings noted never to count out “the Dealer” though and Jason quickly climbed the ladder, sprung by some good early trades and draft surprises.

Afterthoughts such as Molina, Kyle Lohse, and Melky Cabrera suddenly became high-performing mainstays. Meanwhile first rounder Adam Jones started to show off his massive potential, and Matt Moore, though he struggled at times, was a key ace down the stretch. And Chris Perez shook off initial rust to be one of a handful of closers to last the entire season.

That said, his keepers initially looked awful. Hanley and Shields struggled with consistency, while Alex Gordon never showed the power he did in 2011 and Utley was shelved. Weaver was his true ace self and Braun continued his reign as fantasy’s top player, but there were a lot of holes, make no mistake about it. He methodically spackled the holes with guys like Omar Infante (later dealt for Beckett) Brandon Phillips (acquired for the surprising Vogelsong) Samardzjia, Middlebrooks, Janssen, Marmol, and Clippard, then later trading a couple picks for the surprising AJ Burnett.

While there were some regretful drops along the way (Rios, Frieri, among them), Jason made the case for the active owner. If you ever tried to offer him a trade, you realized you never could because he had already maxed out his six offers. Jason said he feels compeled to always have 5-6 offers out there or he feels like he’s being lazy (though he admits this may be quelled a bit now that Troy is no longer with us).
“I actually tried to improve my offers this year as opposed to the pure volume approach of these past,” he said. “Most of you will probably find that hard to believe, but I did try to put myself in the shoes of the person I was proposing the deals to in order to make better use of everyone's team.”

Given the deals he’s been able to pull off, it’s hard to blame him for the sometimes lopsided offers. That said, the deal perhaps most responsible for his championship was one that looked questionale at the time, when he dealt Phillips and Konerko-- two long-time keepers -- and a 18th (last) rounder for Headley, Willingham, and a 9th rounder. At the time, Headley was having a good season but wasn’t quit projecting to play up to clear-cut keeper. He is now. Headley ripped through the competition throughout the playoffs, while Willingham continued his surprisingly consistent production and may even be a keeper himself.

“That was probably my second most important move of the season,” he said. “Headley is apparently a monster and Willingham is also keeper worthy. I gave away to fringe keepers for two better keepers and got a pick upgrade. Thanks Gib!”

Meanwhile, dealing Moore and Melky for Yovani and Choo was also key down the stretch, even though he had to give up perhaps the most promising young arm outside of DC.  Jason did an excellent job picking up hot guys at the right time in exchange for guys who had gone cold injured, as Melky, Middlebrooks, and Konerko were not going to be much help. Meanwhile, he was rewarded for his faith in Utley and Rollins, who were solid throughout the playoffs.

Jason entered the matchup with Russ confidently after dispatching Casten quite handedly, 7-2-1. He had a nice set up with 2-3 more double starts for his best pitchers like Weaver, while some of Russ’ most important pieces were hurting, namely Hamilton and CarGo, and Trout had slowed his torrid pace.
“Its obviously helpful when your team is healthy, but it’s even better when most of your guys are still in the playoff hunt as they generally play every day,” he said. “I (thought I had it won) Friday night when he had 5 starters going and only one of them ended up with a quality start and he fell behind big time in WHIP and a little in ERA. It allowed for me to sit my starters on Sunday without risk.”

Jason said he and Russ have a long history, which might’ve been the reason there was no trash talking or dialogue at all between the teams during the week.

“We have come a long way from our days of mindless bickering. I think there is a definite feeling of mutual respect. I know there is on my end anyway.  He always has a competitive team and he absolutely was a team I feared throughout the regular season.”

Another reason for the lack of trash talk  was simply to appease the fantasy gods. Obviously, they were pleased with him. Perhaps that was because he refrained from simply giving up next year’s draft in exchange for this championship. In fact, he’s in better shape than some teams that weren’t even in contention, with only one hole in the middle of the draft (7th) and two picks in round 9-11.

With that, Jason is in excellent shape to repeat. He’s got excess keepers to deal if he can find a buyer with Braun, Weaver, Hanley, Headley, AJones, Willingham, Gallardo standing out and Choo, AGordon, Utley and Howard as possibilities.

Still, it’s too early to look to next season. That’s for the rest of us. He should feel comfortable reveling in the glory.

“(It feels) like all of the time and energy I put into fantasy baseball was worth it. It’s almost a feeling of relief,” he said.  “I don't know what to do with myself without constantly having to check my scores or the latest fantasy news.

“I think I might have a problem.”

A problem we’d all love to have right now.

Monday, September 3, 2012

PLAYOFF PREVIEW



Well, that was interesting, remarkable actually. Brandon finished third (1.5 games out) and Jason fell a game short of winning the regular season championship. Meanwhile, at the other end of the fight to the playoffs, Brian got edged out, falling a game short. This is the reason active management is so necessary – every single decision can mean the difference between getting nothing or 25% of the pool, or being a playoff team or not. Deciding to start or not start someone could seemingly just cost you the WHIP category for the week, but can ultimately keep you on the outside looking in. Tough luck for the former champ, but bravo for sticking with it and making it interesting all the way to the end.

The playoffs feature five of the original teams (Jason joined in 2007) and three former champions. A lot of the top teams didn’t have great weeks and there are a few limping into the playoffs. But it all comes down to who heats up over the next three weeks. In 2011, Pierce ended the regular season in mediocre fashion, going 23-23-4 over his last five weeks, then he got hot and took out Lars, myself and Dagan on his way to his first championship. Six teams made it in, and it’s anyone’s game. Now, to the matchups:

GRUMPY vs. Cowhide – I give Dave credit for making it back into the hunt and into the playoffs, but I don’t give him much of a chance here. In my mind, Casten still has the best team even though he’s the third seed. An overpowering offense and four double starts gives him a big advantage. However, Dunn’s oblique and 14-15 record in his last three matchups against playoff teams shows this team is not infallible. For Dave, he had an amazing run around the all star break, when he went an incredible 47-6-7 over six weeks, which vaulted him toward the top of the standings. But he’s faced three playoff teams the last three weeks and limped into the playoffs with a 5-24-1 record in that period. Dave and Brandon split the season series with Brandon getting the upperhand 11-8-1. David has his work cut out for him against Goliath, but that’s why they play the game.

Ring vs. Montezumas – It just wouldn’t feel right to be in the playoffs and not have to matchup against Dagan. This will be the fourth time the top two teams in the all-time standings have faced eachother in the playoffs and Dagan has had my number each time, including the epic 2006 championship that ended in a 4-4 tie (ERA was the tie breaker, logically…. grrr). Still, the combined score of those games was a close 16-12-2 and this week will probably be no different. Votto is supposed to be back, which should help Dagan, who also had three double starts while I have none. The pitching rates may make the difference here. While my team has been up and down all season, Dagan has been pretty consistent, only losing five matchups overall. We only played eachother once and it was another crazy battle that came down to the last day (I won 7-3). This too should be a close one.

POWER RANKINGS

1.
Team:  THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS
Manager: Brandon
Seed: 3
Notable draft picks (on roster): Brandon Morrow, Max Scherzer, Adam Dunn, Jonathan Niese, Joel Hanrahan, Rafael Betancourt
Notable free agents: Marco Estrada
How they got here: Casten had a very balanced team despite some noteable injury issues throughout, lead by a strong core of keepers (Miggy, Cutch, Reyes, Heyward and Pujols) and a number of trades involving 2013 picks. He devoted as much to going for it this year as he did in 2011 preparing for this year. Like Russ, his draft wasn’t particulary great to start – Wieters, Garza, Beachy, Hanson, and Luebke were his first five picks – disappointing, though mostly due to injuries. But he went on a strong run after that, highlighted by Dunn, who has been a beast. He’s been aided by having a rare strong, healthy, and employed bullpen -- probably a big reason he only had to use 15 transactions. In fact he had almost as many trades as free agents pickups (11).
Where the are going: Casten has as good of a chance as anyone to take this. He’s certainly devoted the resources to it. Five guys with more than 24 homers and five with more than 80 rbi his offense will be tough for anyone to handle. His pitching is beatable though, with Harang, Capuano, Wilson and Halladay inconsistent as of late and Fiers and Estrada certainly no sure things. His closers are great, but it’s a matter of opportunity (seven total saves the past two weeks).

2.
Team:  Clayton & King
Manager: Russ
Seed: 1
Notable draft picks (on roster): Mike Trout, David Freese, Matt Harrison, Jordan Zimmerman, Alejandro De Aza, Jason Kipnis
Notable free agents: Wade Miley, Alcides Escobar
How they got here: Buoyed by strong keepers (Cano, Kershaw, Felix, Hamilton, Cargo, Wainright), Russ took a solid draft and ran with it to the regular season championship. The obvious highlight is Trout, who could be the draft pick of the century. It’s always tempting to deal a player with such early success and hype, so kudos to Russ for sticking out the month he was in the minors and holding on. His season was all the more impressive considering the failures of his first five, very high draft picks – Crawford, Berkman, JMontero, Avila, Hardy. Grabbing guys like Nova, De Aza, Harrison, Kipnis and, of course Trout made all the difference. In total, Russ went 65-34 in offensive categories, which is pretty impressive.
Where the are going: With KMorales suddenly productive and Hamilton in hit mode, the offense is balanced, though it can be inconsistent. The pitching staff is interesting and a bit top heavy, with the bottom more than a little worrisome. While its important to consider his staff had been shaped quite a bit by streaming for the past week, he won’t be able to stream going forward. At least he’ll have a week to figure out what wire guys he actually wants in his run to the championship.



3.
Team:  One Nut Wonders
Manager: Jason
Seed: 2
Notable draft picks (on roster): Adam Jones, Chris Perez, Yadier Molina
Notable free agents: Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Clippard, Greg Holland, Casey Janssen
How they got here: Jason overcame the mediocrity of some of his keepers (Shields, Utley, Gordon) to gain a first round bye, swapping in and out of first place with Brandon and Russ throughout the year. He did so with, of course, a lot of trades and some strong early draft picks in Matt Moore, Jones, Rollins, Melky, Bonfacio, Perez and Vogelsong. Of course only two of those guys are still on the team, but its sort of ironic given how much he was stressing about his lack of picks during the draft considering how well he did. Still, he obviously learned something as he’s in pretty good shape for picks last year and certainly didn’t lessen the number of trades.
Where the are going: Grabbing Headly and Willingham near the deadline might’ve been his best deal of the year and has filled some holes on offense, which doesn’t have some of the names as other top seeds, but certainly has the ability to put up great weeks. The pitching would concern me though. While Lester has been better and certainly Beckett’s trade made him at least a consideration to remain on the roster, Burnett has faltered as of late, Garcia is coming back from and injury, and Hanson is having issues. There’s a lot of guys here that can place a big wet turd in the punch bowl, but they could also be great. Enjoy the break, then hold your breath, Jason.

4.
Team:  Montezuma’s Revenge
Manager: Adam
Seed: 5th
Notable draft picks (on roster): Jake Peavy, Nick Swisher
Notable free agents: Colby Rasmus
How they got here: The Revenge opened the year with a team of young keepers, most of whom underperformed (CSantana, Hosmer, JUpton, Lawrie), then used top draft picks on Pineda, CPena, CLewis, Storen, and GFloyd, making for a rather bumpy season. Grabbing guys like James McDonald and Peavy late were crucial to keeping the team afloat. Active management and some key trades made this team what it is, namely the acquisition of Sale and Desmond who were later traded as keepers, and Aramis for KDrabek and Harang. Lead by Hamels, Peavy and Dickey, the pitching staff was very good at times and helped rack up wins, going 65-32-3.
Where the are going: The offense pales in comparison to most in the league, but is capable of good weeks and late season production from early season disappointments like Hosmer and Upton could make the difference. The offense has been solid lately, though Rasmus’ star has fallen fast. Pitching will be key as it was my greatest strength during the season and a lot will depend on the performance of late season acquisitions McCarthy, Minor, Fister, BAnderson, and HStreet.

5.
Team: Ring of Fire
Manager: Dagan
Seed: 3
Notable draft picks (on roster): Matt Latos, Paul Goldschmidt, Johnny Cueto
Notable free agents: Danny Espinosa, AJ Pierzynski, Anthony Rizzo, Phil Hughes, Trevor Plouffe
How they got here: Dagan had some nice hits at the beginning of the draft, but really missed badly later on. But he made up for it with some strong free agent selection. His offense has really missed Votto, but he should be back for the first day of the playoffs. Unfortunately, it looks like Papi may be done for the year though. If Ortiz, Votto, and Kemp were healthy the entire season, you have to think Ring would be looking at a bye week coming up. Of course, as I’ve stated, the starters are inconsistent and I don’t think enough was done to improve this area at the deadline. His staff was a headwind during the season, only going 44-40-7. But given the injuries to his keepers (Youk included), it impressive he’s even here.
Where the are going: The offense includes a lot of streaky guys and unfortunately for Dagan, many of them are in the midst of a slow spell as the playoffs start and it would be a lot to expect Votto to produce immediately. But guys like Bruce, Votto, and Kemp could also explode suddenly. The biggest problem may be pitching, with really only Cueto producing at a high level the entire season. Latos and McDonald are certainly capable and Lincecum has been decent lately, so a lot will depend on how the wind blows.

6.
Team:  Cowhide Joyride
Manager: Dave
Seed: 6th
Notable draft picks (on roster): Madison Bumgarner, Craig Kimbrel, Yoenis Cespedes, Kenley Jansen, Austin Jackson
Notable free agents: Alfonso Soriano, Ernesto Frieri, Ryan Ludwick
How they got here: Dave’s had a pretty interesting season as it looked like his lack of production from keepers (Lincecum, RZimmerman, Weeks) would bury him. But he remained active throughout and traded his way into a big hole for 2013, but he’s got a good team that could win it all. Unfortunately for Dave he had a good draft but overreacted to some guys (name dropping/trading EJackson, Rasmus, and Rios). Still, guys like Johan, Bumgarner, Jensen and Kimbrel basically performed like keepers throughout much of the year.
Where the are going: Hard to tell. His biggest strength is his bullpen and that took a big blow when Jensen went down and, really, their contribution is limited to namely one category, though he certainly has most of the top K/9 relievers in the game with Kimbrel, Chapman, Frieri, and Jansen. They are capable of putting up the Ks of a good starter for the week, but its all about opportunity. The pitching is suspect with Bumgarner and Price surrounded by a lot of quetons marks, though Maholm and Hellickson have both been pretty good, albeit not spectacular. He needs the others to produce and the offense to do much better than it has (5 hrs in last two weeks).