Final Trade Reviews for 2013

Prestige receives:
1B Freddie Freeman ATL
1B/3B/OF Mark Trumbo LAA
Round 7
Round 11

Angry receives:
1B Adrian Gonzalez BOS
Round 14
Round 18

The most fascinated trade before the deadline was its last. The most titillating detail, I think, was Lars recouping Trumbo whom he let go in the worst trade of the year (Feliz and Gardner for Trumbo and Buchholz). Meanwhile, he gets Freeman, who won’t be 22 until September and quietly had a good season considering his injury issues. I think he blows up next year and I think Trumbo has proven he’s more than a three outcomes guy. Lars also acquires his third first rounder for next year and probably has situated himself in the best position for 2013 among the noncontenders outside of Chris.

Though he was coming along at a great rate, AGon was not his old self this year and you have to wonder if that had something to do with the team he was on and his comfort with Bobby V. The trade that shook the world had not occurred at the time this deal was executed, but I think it helps Adrian despite the larger park. He’s proven he can hit balls out of any park and Dodger Stadium is not Petco. Meanwhile, he’ll actually be in a better lineup next year and be in SoCal, playing in familiar parks against familiar foes. He gave up a lot but he got a top-of-the shelf keeper to go with his young guys - Giancarlo, Starlin, Lawrie, JMontero, and Middlebrooks.
---------
Anal receives:
SP Justin Masterson CLE
Round 19

Ring receives:
RP Steve Cishek
Round 20

Cishek has been an underrated reliever while Masterson might be the most frustrating player to own this because he teases you with enough talent to prevent you from dropping him, but every few games he just blows big time. If the great Oz indeed gives Bell back his gig, Cishek is droppable, but no big loss here with a late round one round upgrade.
-----
Urban receives:
SP Matt Moore TB
OF Melky Cabrera SF
Round 12

One Nut receives:
OF Shin Soo Choo CLE
SP Yovani Gallardo MIL
Round 16

As long as Melky doesn’t end up being one of Dan’s keepers, I like this trade for both teams. Moore is the best player here. He has shown his talent over the last month or so and should be a high-end keeper for years to come. Gallardo can be really good but really frustrating because his results are not dependent on the matchup (thus allowing you to mix and match), but really just a matter of whether he decides to have command or not. He can be incredible and then stink suddenly. His ERA was above 4.00 not too long ago, but a string of good outings have it back around 3.60. As a keeper, I consider him low end even though he’s been kept basically every year. Sure 200 and 207 ks the previous two seasons has been great, but the 3.84 and 3.52 eras and 1.37 and 1.22 whip place him squarely in the tier of the barely kept SPs from last year (Garza, CWilson, Latos, etc). He’s been kept on name recognition mostly. Moore, meanwhile, is the real deal and I predict will be a top 10 SP in 2013. Choo is solid all around contributor who is not a flashy keeper but a guy who contributes in all five categories. Jason stands to benefit from this deal in the short term providing Yovani can finish strong, which he has done in the past.

The Melk Man (or the Juice Man) was playing way over his head the last two year and we now know why. I would’ve hated him as a keeper even if he wasn’t caught. There’s just nothing that makes that .346 average appear sustainable and, for our purposes, it was only 44 points below his OBP, meaning he doesn’t walk, meaning if he hit .270 like he should, his OBP would be around .315. This makes the good not great 111/15/80/17 line he was projecting to have before he was busted all that more unlikely to replicate. When you factor in the additional drug testing he’ll face upon his return, we’re looking at more of a late round flier than a keeper. That said, Dan got the best player and a good upgrade, so I think he did fine.
-----

Donkey receives:
SP Ben Sheets ATL
Round 14

Clayton receives:
SP Scott Diamond MIN
Round 15

Diamond has had a nice season, but you have to wonder whether its just a smoke show that will eventually reveal a mediocre middle of the rotation guy. 3.04/1.21 is pretty good, but 71 k in 130 ip is not. Unfortunately for Russ, he had to give up on Sheets who had been on a incredible run and almost made him look brilliant in picking up the oft-injured former star. When the most common adjective used before your name is “oft-injured” it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s injured again. Not sure Diamond is the guy who should replace him, but one round is basically nothing, so why not see if you can find a diamond in the rough…. My apologies for the pun. That was awful.

---
Ring receives:
SP Ryan Dempster TEX
SP James McDonald PIT
Round 16
Round 16

Donkey receives:
RP Jared Burton MIN
SP Wandy Rodriguez PIT
Round 12
Round 14

If Dagan was acquiring these two in April, this would be a great trade but both Dempster and McD have seen their stars plummet since the All Star break – McDonald rediscovered his command issues while Dempster left the cozy confines of the NL for a ballpark known for turning routine flyballs into homers. Too bad because both of these guys had eras around 2.00 for much of the season. Now Dagan has to hope the recent volatility was just a blip and that they turn things back around as their teams stay in the hunt for the playoffs. Six rounds for these two isn’t too bad, but I wonder if Wandy isn’t just as likely to return back to his old self as Demps or McD.
---

Montezumas receives:
RP Huston Street SD
Round 15

Donkey receives:
Round 14

Pissed off the only team with a waiver position higher than me put in a claim on a disabled player, I sucked up my pride and traded Chris a pick to grab one of the better closers in the league this year. Reports are good he should be available for the playoffs.
--

Cowhide receives:
SP Jeremy Hellickson TB
Round 18

Donkey receives:
SP Homer Bailey
Round 13

Solid and unspectacular, Hellickson is a good fit for Dave’s club, which has been hurt by volatility over the course of the season. Homer sort of defines volatility, which is frustrating because he can be really good at times. Dave moves his highest remaining pick in this trade, leaving him without a pick for the first seven rounds (at least for now). Five rounds seems a bit high given the trade that were occurring during this time period. An interesting factoid is that, with this trade, depending on how the draft balls bounce, Chris could actually be done drafting before Dave makes his first pick. For an owner that is typically pretty quiet, Chris did a masterful job working his roster and now will be done drafting in the eighth round. Its safe to assume we’ll be including Chris in the top tier of teams in 2013.
--

Monetezumas receives:
SS Derek Jeter NYY
Round 20

Prestige receives:
SS Stephen Drew ARI
Round 17

I was willing to give Drew some time to prove he was worth keeping as my SS going into the playoffs after showing some signs of life, but he quickly rediscovered his mediocrity. I grabbed one of my keepers from last year and was quickly rewarded with three homers in the first week. With offense not necessarily my team’s strongest area, a solid guy like Jeter is a great update for three rounds.
---

Grumpy receives:
SP Mike Fiers
Round 22

Keepin receives:
Round 20

Solid pickup for Casten and good recycling by Pierce, who had recently acquired Fiers in a dump trade with Dave. Fiers has come out of nowhere to have a great rookie season with very good K numbers (96 in 93 ip). Unfortunately, as tends to happen with rooks, his recent outings haven’t been as good and it may be a case where the league is starting to figure him out. Casten better hope its not a trend that is discovered in the first round of the playoffs a 2ip outing with 8er like the one at COL can be a rate killer. Not sure he is worth further digging the draft pick hole that Casten has already dug, but I guess its just two rounds.

Trade Reviews

Version:1.0 StartHTML:0000000105 EndHTML:0000012680 StartFragment:0000002295 EndFragment:0000012644

Montezumas receives:

SP Mike Minor ATL

SP Brandon McCarthy OAK

Round 17

Round 17

Donkey receives:

SP Edinson Volquez SD

SP James McDonald PIT

Round 12

Round 15

I hated doing this trade since I trade Minor and seven rounds for Volquez a few weeks ago, so I essentially gave Chris like 10 rounds for nothing. That’s what I get for believing in Volquez again after what he did for me last season. I also don’t like the position I’ve put my team in for 2013, but Im certainly better off than some. And Minor has been really great since I originally picked him up; if he falters, Brett Anderson or Niemann are decent insurance. McCarthy could play a key role in my team going forward. He has been pretty consistent when healthy over the past year and dominant at times. If he can end 2012 the way he did 2011, this trade will be well worth it. Chris is by far in the best position for 2013 in terms of picks. If he can dump his 18^th before Sunday he could be done drafting after eight rounds in 2013. Not too shabby for someone who gave up 2012 late relative to most.

---------

Cowhide Joyride receives:

OF Cody Ross BOS

SP Chad Billingsley LAD

SP Homer Bailey CIN

Round 17

Keepin receives:

OF Jason Kubel ARI

SP Michael Fiers MIL

SP Johan Santana NYM

Round 12

Really just don’t like it for Dave. Considering I don’t expect Pierce cared who he was getting back as long as it meant a pick, Dave essentially was dumping Fiers, Kubel, and Johan who have all had good season. He gave up high picks in the deal to get Kubel (8 & 11) and he’s dumping him? He’s a streaky hitter (I know, I traded him when he had six homers after two months) capable of going on the type of runs that bring teams championships. Meanwhile, he gets back another streaky hitter in Ross. And whiel Fiers is a rookie and certainly was no help to him this week, I’d rather have him than Bailey who has been up and down. Billingsley started great, hit the skids, hit the DL and come back slinging, but has always been inconsistent, which makes it tough to rely on him going forward. That said, Johan obviously hit a wall, which is too bad because it was one of Dave’s best picks. Its tough moving on from those guys who carry you at times during the season – especially when it’s a dump trade. I had to do the same with McDonad. Anyhow, five rounds isn’t a lot, but Dave doesn’t have a lot and there is a big difference in the talent differential between 12 and 17 than, say, 19 and 24.

------------

Grumpy receives:

OF Shane Victorino LAD

Round 22

Sexual Napalm receives:

OF Chris Young ARI

UTL Michael Cuddyer COL

Round 12

I really like this move for Mike to get 10 rounds for a guy having an off, albeit decent, year. He also got Young who isn’t a bad guy to have as a fall back keeper if you need one. He’s awfully inconsistent, but has had awesome seasons that make you dream of what he could do with a season of consistent production. Victorino was a Troy favorite, but never a guy I thought warranted year to year keeper consideration. He usually has good seasons, but he’s been pretty inconsistent in steals and OBP and only mediocre in the other categories. Cuddyer has had a good season and has value in his position flexibility alone. He would likely be able to find another trade partner for Cuddyer if he was healthy and he still could. The bottom line here though is 10 rounds is a nice return for Shane and Casten now has no 1st or 2^nd rounders or picks from rounds 6 to 13.

------------

One Nut receives:

3B Chase Headley SD

OF Josh Willingham MIN

Round 15

Sexual Napalm receives:

2B Brandon Phillips CIN

1B Paul Konerko CHW

Round 24

I would’ve liked this fine if there was no picks involved, but there’s really no reason I see for Jason to get nine rounds when he’s getting the two players having the better seasons. I mean, Willingham is one of a handful of players with 30 bombs and he’s been consistent with the OBP as well. And Headley has played himself into keeper consideration (note: better than ARod, Kennedy, and Kendrys… just sayin), while both doing it in massive parks. I’d rather have those two rest of the year, but would probably lean toward Phillips and Konerko as keepers – especially for a team practically building from scratch like Mike. They have the historical production to be considered more likely to be high quality in ’13 compared to two guys having years far off their career norms. So, keeping that in mind, one team gets the players for the future one gets them for the season. Straight up, it’s a fair deal. I didn’t quite understand the confusion related to the picks, but nine rounds is just too much – particularly when Mike is dealing from a position of strength.  But, again, its hard for him to know that, or have any idea of the number of deals that happen in this league (there very well may be six on Sunday alone). Bottom line is I think he’s got better keepers than he did when he inherited the team, so that’s a plus.

-----------

Sexual Napalm receives:

OF Corey Hart MIL

Round 14

Grumpy receives:

OF Hunter Pence SF

SP Chris Capuano LAD

SP Aaron Harang LAD

Round 21

In the new guy’s first move, I don’t think he got what he could have. Hart and Pence are more or less equals. Neither steals much anymore and both have been hit or miss in the OBP department (Hart: .332 career, Pence .340). Pence has an advantage in the RBI and R depts, while Hart has more power. In the end, I’d probably rather have Hart but its not by much and could change depending on if Pence changes teams again. So, if you take that out of it, you get Capuano and Harang for seven rounds. Capuano may not be a keeper, but he’s certainly pitched like one (135k/3.11era/1.20whip/16qs) while Harang has been a very useful player (109/3.76/1.39/14). I just think they demanded more in return than seven rounds. Given Troy’s lack of activity, it would’ve been more useful to request two picks for two pitchers. Seven rounds for Capuano isn’t awful, but he’s played up to at least 10 rounds by himself. Add three rounds for Harang and you’ve got a fair deal.

Not awful and certainly Mike is challenged coming in not knowing exactly how to value some of these guys and only have a week to do it. So, keeping that in mind, a quality first move.

-----------------

Clayton receives:

RP Jim Johnson

Round 21

Prestige receives:

Round 17

Nice move by Russ. A good closer this year for four rounds is a nice addition and for Lars its about what the going rate is now. Might’ve been able to get another round or two if he held out and tried to create some competition for one of the safer options available, but can hardly blame him for making the move. Putz, Paps and Johnson are a nice trio heading into the playoffs.

----------------

Montezuma’s receives:

RP Jason Motte STL

SP Doug Fister DET

Round 23

BILLY CHAPEL receives:

RP Ryan Cook OAK

SP Chris Capuano

Round 21

Ummm… sorry?

More trade reviews

Cowhide receives:
SP Jason Vargas SEA
Round 19

Donkey receives:
SP Tommy Milone OAK
Round 14

Understanding Milone’s limitations, I don’t see the real value here for Dave since he’s essentially acquiring the same pitcher but further hurting his draft status for 2013. Their lines are eerily similar, with the same Ks and Vargas besting the youth by 0.22 in era, 0.08 in whip and 5 qs (20 less innings for Milone). Both are great at home and crap on the road (Milone – 5.77/1.53, Vargas – 4.55/1.28), though Vargas is a bit more tolerable. Perhaps the greatest difference is Vargas is unlikely to lose his rotation spot, while Milone may be relegated to bullpen duty when McCarthy and Anderson are ready. Still, five rounds? I know Chris drives a hard bargain but I don’t think there was a rush to acquire JV and Dave’s 2013 is getting more depressing than Andrew’s 2012, with no picks in the first five rounds and three picks in the first eight. He might be able to improve that some in the offseason, but he doesn’t have a lot of spare keepers floating around that roster from what I can see. Maybe he’ll just trade 2014 picks to upgrade his 2013 roster, or just start the year in rebuild mode. Either way, Dave and Casten (10 picks in final three rounds) – two teams that had favorable draft positions going into 2012 – are looking at what many of us 2011 contenders remember as a pretty painful experience.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cowhide receives:
3B Chipper Jones ATL
Round 21

Anal receives:
OF Michael Brantley CLE
Round 18

Three rounds for a bench bat. I guess its needed given Zimmerman’s history of injuries, but you better hope they aren’t both injured at the same time. Dave has a lot of OFs so it makes sense to get someone who can play a different position. Chipper also plays quite well when healthy, though Brantley hasn’t exactly been a slouch this year either. Proactively selling off parts like this is a very smart move for Andrew and he could use more of it in the next 11 days.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
One Nut receives:
Dan Straily
Round 24

Angry Pirates receives:
Round 22

Can’t really blame either team here, but I particularly like the move by Kyle to acquire a part and sell it off again. Maybe would’ve waited another start to see if I could get a couple more rounds of upgrade, but still nice to move up from a round that really doesn’t produce many contributors. For Jason, I found it odd considering no one knew who Straily was before this year, but quickly skyrocketed up prospect charts and the minor leagues. I wonder if he’ll stick in the rotation for the year though given McCarthy and Anderson’s pending return and the fact that the A’s are still very much in the hunt. But, then again, it is just two rounds.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Grumpy receives:
C Joe Mauer MIN
Round 23

Keepin receives:
C Carlos Ruiz PHI
Round 16

Funny how you differently you can look at trades over the course of a matter of months. Ruiz has been amazing this year, so its unfortunate he could be lost for some time with this foot injury. He’s always had good OBP numbers but really shined this year, contributing in power and run production. Alas, his useful life is over and with guys like Saltalamacchia, Pierzynski, Ruiz, and Yadier leading the way for catchers this year, makes you wonder why you even drafted one in the first place. Mauer has had a fine season. Doesn’t look like he’ll ever have the 28 HR pop he once displayed but he’ll always be a run producer and have one of the top OBP in the league. Given the swiss cheese nature of Casten’s 2013 draft board and the density of picks in the later rounds, I personally would’ve gone with a wire option with some pop like Rosario or Salty rather than give up seven rounds. Or I would’ve waited until Aug 18th at 10 pm and forced Pierce to take two rounds. But oh well. Pierce has done a nice job lately compiling picks to go with a pretty strong set of keepers, which should help him get closer to returning to glory in 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Angry Pirates receives:
1B/OF Garrett Jones PIT
Round 13

Clayton & King receives:
1B/OF Kendrys Morales
Roung 18

I like this move for both teams, but particularly for Russ who will have a very capable bench bat/Berkman fill in.  It is hard to put a value on Morales given that he had two years off and has been productive in spurts – probably the primary reason he’s been traded three times this year. No one wants to give up on him, but no one really know what to do with him, particularly since he somehow received OF eligibility this year. Garret Jones can be productive but its typically in bursts that you fail to notice and take advantage of until they’re over. Still, its perplexing, given the talent available at the position, that Russ hasn’t had better options at 1B this year beside a hobbling Berkman, Yonder Alonso, Shelley Duncan, and Jordan Pacheco. Morales will probably be the best player to man first this year and perhaps his only OK production was the result of his time off and he’ll suddenly be his 2010 self.

Kyle again does a nice job selling a part for a pick. Given that there’s players who have had better years than Kendrys sitting on the wire, he did quite well getting five rounds from him. He and Chris are in the best position to dominate the 2013 draft.

Trade Review: Angry and One Nut

One Nut receives:
Round 12

Angry Pirates receives:
3B Will Middlebrooks BOS
Round 20

This trade really hinges upon the keeper-ability of Middlebrooks. Frankly, his production and prospect status point more toward a guy who is in the top 8-12 at his position for the forseeable future with a line that maxes out around 85/25/90/5/.330 – something short of a sure fire keeper, though not out of the question. The issue I see is that I think Kyle already has six better keepers in Stanton, Trumbo, Castro, Lawrie, Freeman, and JMontero. The first five are pretty sure fire and there could be debate as to Montero’s keeperability. I just think his pedigree far surpasses that of Middlebrooks. Even their production isn’t that far off this (understanding Montero’s line includes 100 more abs). Montero is 22 and at a premium position where four-category producers are very rare. He should maintain his C eligibility for at least a few more years and could be a monster. I just think Kyle would’ve been better off keeping what was a pretty nice upgrade for Jason.

For Jason, it mitigates somewhat the Lester move in that he essentially trades Middlebrooks and an injured ARod for Lester. He’s still stuck with the disastrous missteps when they occur, but if Lester turns it around somehow, the payoff could be considerable… literally.

Trade Review: One Nut and Keepin

One Nut receives:
SP Jon Lester BOS
Round 20

Keepin receives:
NYY Alex Rodriguez NYY
Round 13

This trade doesn’t make sense to me for the Nut. I know Jason likes to collect former all-stars, but there was no way I was going near Lester this year. In the playoffs, predictable, steady pitchers are a must and Jason just added to his already ample stable of instability. Sure, this comes with potential high reward, but Lester has been more bad than good this year and it’s significant. He just can’t be trusted. And the way the Sox are going, I just don’t see it suddenly improving. Given the league’s lack of interest in keeping the likes of Cain, CWilson, Pineda, and Garza in 2012, I find it hard to believe he’ll be able to deal off a 5.36 era and 1.41 whip in the offseason – I don’t care what his historical performance is or how many Red Sox fans there are.

That said, I definitely don’t see ARod as a keeper anymore either. Perhaps Pierce wasn’t even looking to acquire ARod and Jason just couldn’t keep him in the DL slot any longer with his injuries. It’s unlikely Pierce gets anything for ARod with the deadline is 12 days away and the 3B on the shelf until September. I bet he wishes he traded Lester a lot sooner, but he’s pretty lucky to get seven rounds at this point.  It ends one of the longer running relationships in the league, with Lester having joined Pierce’s squad five years ago (Jason traded Conor Jackson, JD Drew, Justin Upton, Jon Lester, and Phil Hughes to Pierce for Rick Ankel, Jacoby Ellsbury, Raul Ibanez, Dice-K, and KRod). At least you’ll always have 2012.

Power Rankings

Trade Review: One Nut and Urban

Urban Achievers receive:
RP Carlos Marmol CHC
Round 17
Round 18

One Nut receives:
SP AJ Burnett PIT
Round 21
Round 23

A fair move on both sides and a necessary one for Jason. Burnett has been incredibly consistent since letting up 12 ER in a start earlier in the season, which is so very un-AJ Burnett like, but I guess that tells you something about pitching in New York. His stuff looked great the other night in the near no hitter. So often at this time of year we see mega deals based on the names involved rather than production, so this was a smart move by Jason. Nine rounds is nothing to sniff at, but splitting it up with two picks lessens the talent impact next year. Was it a fair price though? Here’s a list of the trades that have gone through this year where it was essentially a pitcher for a draft pick:

Roy Halladay (Grumpy) – 30 rounds
CJ Wilson (Grumpy) – 23 rounds
Dan Haren (Moose) – 17 rounds
AJ Burnett (One Nut) – 9 rounds
Edinson Volquez (Montezumas) – 7 rounds
Rafael Soriano (Montezumas) – 6 rounds
Ervin Santana (Grumpy) – 5 rounds
Addison Reed (Grumpy) – 5 rounds
Travis Wood (Cowhide) – 4 rounds
Tom Whilemsen (Ring) – 3 rounds

There’s clearly a top tier there based on keeper-ability. Wilson has been the best, but has struggled lately while Haren and Halladay’s ups and downs have been well documented. Burnett’s numbers (102/3.27/1.19/14 in 124 ip) have been better than everyone on this list, which look even better if you were to take out the 12 ER debacle (which is cheating, but you get the point). Dan did good holding on to him for this long and not budging on lower offers (I know he got them because I offered some) and capitalized at the right time. Dan also got a useful part in Marmol who looks like he’ll continue in the closer role for the rest of the season and could potentially be swung for a pick. Burnett doesn’t have the keeper cache of Haren and Halladay and I’d probably still rather have Wilson long term, but he’s been productive and could be just what Jason needs after trading Wilson earlier this season and having three DLd starters. Good move for both.

Trade Review: Grumpy and Urban

Grumpy receives:
1B/2B/OF Allen Craig STL
C Carlos Ruiz

Urban receives:
C Matt Wieters BAL
RP Bobby Parnell NYM

Two of the more underrated acquisitions this year, Dan held on tight to Craig throughout his few months of injuries and was handsomely rewarded with some of the best production over a 60-game span of any player this season, while Ruiz has been one of the best fantasy catchers all year long – particularly for an OBP league. The move provides Casten with some nice flexibility with the roster should he need it, with Cuddyer and Craig both 2B eligible despite their lack of defensive prowess. The question for Brandon is who to start with all this flexibility? Not a bad problem to have, though I suspect he’ll try to move a part in exchange for pitching.

For Dan, the star that once shined so brightly has lost some of its luster as the season went on. Wieters certainly has the talent to put up top 3 numbers at the catch position, but he’s been rather inconsistent and has not been the offensive powerhouse many predicted so far in his young career. Still, I like him as a decent keeper in the middle of an improving Baltimore lineup. Might’ve required a pick upgrade here myself since Ruiz and Craig have been so valuable, but it’s still a reasonable exchange.