ROUND 7
Best: OF Tyler ONeill STL (Grit B&B) – There’s a lot of swing and miss and not enough walks, but if there was one potential 5-category contributor in their mid-20s with a chance to be a fantasy star, it’s ONeill.
Runner-Up: SP Shane McClanahan TB (Donkey) – Soooo many pitchers taken early, but the one I feel most confident in being kept for the next five years, it’s this guy. I’m a big McClanafan.
Worst: C Will Smith LAD (Ex-Presidents) – Theoretically it sort of makes sense given that his 162 avg is 92/35/106/4/.363 and he’s 27 and there’s a DH. But this is the Dodgers are gonna Dodger and give him the customary time off, while sporting a deep roster of guys to put in the DH spot. Probably looking at number similar to last year, which are great… for a catcher… and not in the first round.
Runner-Up: P Shohei Ohtani-Pitcher LAA (Knuckle) – He’ll be good when he’s there, but he won’t always be. Knuckle kept four SPs and have a lineup anchored by a potential one hit wonder (Mullins) and a 3-cat ho-hummer (Castellanos).
X-Factor: 1B/3B Spencer Torkelson DET (Montezuma’s) – I was going hitter the whole way and the only one I would’ve taken over Tork is ONeill. As ready of a prospect as we will ever see with big four-category potential for the next decade.
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ROUND 8
Best: 1B/OF Kyle Shwarber PHI (One Nut) – Honestly, couldn’t have gone to a better spot this side of Colorado. Perfect fit for that lineup and he’s a surefire four category guy.
Runner-Up: SP Charlie Morton ATL (Ex-Presidents) – Nine SP picked to this point and everyone might’ve missed the best one. By underlying metrics, there were none better last year.
Worst: OF Jo Adell LAA (Freedom) – I had my eye on him too, but this is just too early for the amount of risk included.
Runner-Up: SP Jack Flaherty STL (One Nut) – Someone had to take him, but it wasn’t going to be me… at least not in the second round. This would be “worst” if Jason didn’t have so many early picks to burn.
X-Factor: SS Adalberto Mondesi KC (Montezuma’s) – I feel so much less confident in this one than the first X factor. But with Tatis out for a while, at least I got SBs out of the way. Still, with two rookies now and a long-term injury already on the roster, the floor of a sub-.200 part-time injury prone player may be fool hearty.
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ROUND 9
Best: SP Logan Gilbert SEA (Angry Pirates) – Again, a crazy amount of SPs taken at this point – 19 of 36 picks! - but one of the best ceiling/floor/long-term keeper takes in the draft was Gilbert. I think he’s a potential ace, but at worst he’s a fine SP4.
Runner-Up: OF Seiya Suzuki (Tomahawk) – Really was surprised he didn’t go closer to the first given the hype. This isn’t Hae-Soeng Kim coming over from the KBO. The Nippon League is legit competition and he has the looks of at least a fine 80/25/80/10/.340 player for the next 5 years.
Worst: SP Noah Syndergaard LAA (Brokeback) – There isn’t much of a case for Thor going this high outside of name value. He could be good, but he’s had one season of 180 IP, 200 K, sub-3.00/1.20 and that was six years ago.
Runner-Up: 1B Joey Votto CIN (Angry Pirates) – I know last season was great, but there were three straight season where he had 15 HR or less before that.
X-Factor: OF Christian Yelich MIL (Montazuma’s) – Like Mondesi, the range of outcomes here is quite high.
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ROUND 10
Best: SP John Means BAL (Angry Pirates) – A lot of bad luck went into last year’s numbers. Assuming that normalizes, the dramatic change in ballpark dimensions could make Means a top 30 arm.
Runner-Up: OF Austin Meadows DET (Grit B&B) – Even before the trade, which occurred minutes before this selection, it’s a little absurd to let a 30 HR/100 RBI bat fall this hard. Sure the platoon splits are there, but that also makes it pretty easy to know when to start him.
Worst: SP Michael Kopech CHW (Cowhide) – Always loved the talent, the player is a bit of an unreliable headcase and seems to be the type of person his old school manager hates most. On a per-inning basis, he should be pretty good but QSs will be hard to come by.
Runner-Up: SP Tarik Skubal DET (Napalm) – The arm is special, but the HR rate is uniquely terrible. It just means volatility will be part of his profile until that changes.
X-Factor: OF/C Daulton Varsho ARI (Freedom) – This is an early catcher I can get behind, with unique blend of speed, power, and advanced approach, topped off with C eligibility in a season where he likely won’t see one start there.
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ROUND 11
Best: SP Patrick Sandoval LAA (Ring) – I love Sandoval, but missed out on him in every league I’m in. There’s just a lot of clean underlying numbers that hint at potential ace this season.
Runner-Up: SS Dansby Swanson ATL (Knuckle) – He’s boring, sure, but that’s a lot of value at this point in the draft.
Worst: SP Stephen Strasburg WAS (Brokeback) – I’m hopeful and even slightly optimistic at a rebound, but there’s no way I’d call him a top 150 fantasy value this season.
Runner-Up: 3B Justin Turner LAD (Brokeback) – I know he’s a solid bat, and maybe he’s boosted by the DH spot, by he’s 38 and last year was the first time he reached 500 abs since he was 32.
X-Factor: 3B Yoan Moncada CHW (Cowhide) – I believe in the talent, the pedigree, and the COVID excuse, but at some point seeing is believing. Maybe the Sale for Moncada/Kopech deal just wasn’t as big as we thought at the time.
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ROUND 12
Best: SP Shane Baz TB (Montezuma’s) – In H2H, you really just need to be good enough to make the playoffs and then hope for the best. Baz’s surgery was to remove loose bodies, not fix a tendon or muscle. So recovery is expected to be relatively easy. He might not be here til mid June, but TB was going to keep his innings low anyway.
Runner-Up: SP Anthony DeSclafani SF (Grit B&B) – Tony Disco is perpetually underappreciated, but if he can stay healthy for 180 ip he’s an easy 170K 3.80/1.20.
Worst: SP Hyun Jin Ryu TOR (Donkey) – To be clear, I don’t hate the pick in what was a very solid round. But he didn’t get much of a warm-up in the spring and didn’t look good when he did. Given the injury history, its hard to trust him.
Runner-Up: SP Kyle Gibson PHI (Moose) – Again, about where he should be picked, but his numbers fell off once he went to Philly and that defense got even worse.
X-Factor: SP Hunter Greene CIN (Brokeback) – After picking a bunch of old boring guys, Watson picks perhaps the most exciting and potentially maddening player available. Huge arm, huge risk.
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ROUND 13
Best: SP Jesus Luzardo MIA (Brokeback) – Hard to take much from spring training, but if you’re going to take anything, sudden rises in MPH among high pedigree SPs is the thing. Great pick here.
Runner-Up: OF Dylan Carlson STL (Knuckle) – News that DC was going to be the new leadoff hitter in front Goldy/Arenado/ONeill is all you need to know. But the high pedigree and steady improvement just makes this potential keeper even better.
Worst: SP Trevor Bauer LAD (Donkey) – I was just out this year. Maybe it’ll come back to bite me, but we all saw what black balling did to Kaepernick. He’ll get another shot somewhere someday, but I wasn’t about to spend a lot to guess when.
Runner-Up: RP Liam Hendricks CHW (Donkey) – Fucking relievers.
X-Factor: OF Marcell Ozuna ATL (Napalm) – Never known as the hardest of workers, it makes you wonder what a year in purgatory did to a historically volatile hitter. Payoff could be huge, or he could waiver wire fodder.
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ROUND 14
Best: SS CJ Abrams SD – It was looking pretty clear he was going to make the opening day roster, so I loved this pick at this point in the draft. Easy speed with some pop. A whole lot of prospect risk, but the payoff could be huge at a point in the draft where people are often clinging to safety.
Runner-Up: SP Alex Cobb SF – The stuff has always been there, but now the velo is up and he’s in the SP rehab center of Major League Baseball. Solid with upside.
Worst: RP Aroldis Chapman NYY – I mean, he’s an RP, but he’s also showing signs of the wheels getting looser each season. His 1.31 WHIP was the first time he exceeded 1.15 in a decade.
Runner-Up: RP Craig Kimbrel LAD – See above.
X-Factor: SP Yusei Kikuchi TOR – Hard to know what to expect from this guy given the wide range of outcomes so far and streakiness. TOR certainly wasn’t the best spot for him, but there’s a potential 180K starter there.
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ROUND 15
Best: SP Alex Wood SF (Cowhide) – Wood has shown the ability to be a start when he’s healthy—and he is, and his velo is up. Strong buy here.
Runner-Up: 1B Bobby Dalbec BOS (Freedom) – It was a tale of two season for Bobby last year. The part after Schwarber was on the team made Bobby look like perennial 80/40/90/5/.330 guy. The one before that made him look like Rob Deer. I like the chance of him holding the latter profile.
Worst: OF Michael Conforto FA (Brokeback) – We didn’t know everything about his issues like we do now, but we knew he was talented and didn’t have a team, so it's hard to justify hanging onto him here – especially since he can’t go on the IL without a team.
Runner-Up: C Keibert Ruiz WAS (Ex-Presidents) – The pick is not bad as selecting a player without a team, but getting a second catcher (and one with a pretty mediocre fantasy profile) is just perplexing.
X-Factor: 3B/SS Eugenio Suarez SEA (Montezuma’s) – Last year was uniquely awful, but even if he splits the difference with the previous two seasons, this has the potential for outsized gains.
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ROUND 16
Best: SS Oneil Cruz PIT (Ex-Presidents) – If you’re going NA at this point, it should be for a guy who showed something when he was up already and would’ve gone 8 rounds earlier if he made the team out of spring training. Volatile profile, but big talent.
Runner-Up: 2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux LAD (Montezuma’s) – Once Pollock got dealt, the only thing standing between Lux and regular ABs was himself and he improved as last season wore down. Big post-hype sleeper here.
Worst: SP Eric Lauer MIL (Tomahawk) – There’s just nothing exceptional in the profile, but there is something exceptional nipping at his heals in the rotation (Ashby).
Runner-Up: SS Brendan Rodgers COL (Ex-Presidents) – I actually don’t hate the pick and was even looking at him around this time, I just can’t ever find statistical support for what made him such a big prospect.
X-Factor: SP Mitch Keller PIT (Tomahawk) – Speaking of post-hype sleepers, it’s hard not to get excited about a pitcher with pedigree that add 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason. However, the space between the ceiling and the floor could fit a small country.
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ROUND 17
Best: SP Drew Rasmussen TB (Ring) – Love the overall profile, but don’t love him being in TB, where it requires an act of Congress to allow a SP to go six innings.
Runner-Up: TIE RP Edwin Diaz NYM (Tomahawk) & RP Kenley Jensen ATL (Napalm) – Good example of what we wait for RPs in S+H leagues. Hendricks went four rounds before, but likely won’t have any more SHs than these two.
Worst: 3B Patrick Wisdom CHC (Napalm) – He had his moments last year, but was very streaky and CHC is rebuilding so they don’t have much reason to let a 31 yo has been play through a 3 for 40 streak.
Runner-Up: SP Zach Eflin PHI (Cowhide) – Not a horrible pick, but guys like Gonsloin, Pivetta, Cortes, Wright offered better upside with just as much risk.
X-Factor: 1B/OF Connor Joe COL (Freedom) – Interesting player I wouldn’t care much about outside of Colorado, but he’s got sneaky 80/25/80/.370 potential .
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ROUND 18
Best: OF Andrew Benintendi KC (Angry Pirates) – Pretty boring from a fantasy perspective, but he’s a very solid OF3 and could run even more this season.
Runner-Up: 1B Brandon Belt SF (Ex-President) – I sure would love to see a health season from Belt this year because if you take 2020-21 production combined you get 90/38/89/3/.390 in 475 abs.
Worst: OF Jarren Duran BOS (Cowhide) – Until we see what we’ve seen the last two springs show up in the regular season, he seems like a longshot to make an impact. One of those guys I could see putting it all together in four years, but on some other team.
Runner-Up: SP Merrill Kelly ARI (Moose) – Velo is up, but there’s a reason this guy gets bounced around fantasy teams all season. He’s just never consistent enough to roster for long periods.
X-Factor: OF Hunter Renfroe MIL (Angry Pirates) – The range of outcomes for this guy is perhaps as extreme as it gets for a MLB regular. That means some amazing streaks on both extremes.
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ROUND 19
Best: C Alejandro Kirk TOR (Brokeback) – Love the hit tool, love the DH hole, love the love TOR shows him. Could get full time ABs in a great lineup this year.
Runner-Up: RP Giovanny Gallegos STL (Angry Pirates) – I get the hesitancy to draft him among the top 10 RPs in a saves league, but his fall here doesn’t make much sense.
Worst: SP Kris Bubic KC (Knuckle) – I don’t see any value beyond the fact that you can call him Booby-C.
Runner-Up: SP MacKenzie Gore SD (Freedom) – Given the struggles last season, this is not the guy I would fill my lone NA spot with.
X-Factor: SP Nestor Cortes NYY (Freedom) – I was bummed and relieved not to get him. His numbers looks like a legit fantasy SP, but he looks like a legit Mario brother.
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ROUND 20
Best: SP Marco Gonzalez SEA (Moose) – It ain’t sexy, but it’s productive as hell in a QS league.
Runner-Up: RP Blake Treinen LAD (One Nut) – This guy might lead the league in S+H… and here he is in the 20th.
Worst: C Christian Vazquez BOS (Knuckle) – I’m 1000% certain at this point that the 66/23/72/4/.320 guy we saw in 2019 is the outlier and the 51/6/49/8/.308 we saw in 2021 is more of what to expect… you know… minus all the random steals.
Runner-Up: SS Tyler Wade LAA (Tomahawk) – He’s been in the league for five years and his cumulative line is 81/6/33/30/.300 in 461 abs. I don’t expect Maddon will suddenly make him a regular or that he’d do much with it if he was to become one.
X-Factor: 1B Keston Hiura MIL (Brokeback) – Milwaukee just seems to breed extreme outcomes for hitters. I would love to see his spring training stats translate to the lineup, but it’s hard to withstand any slow spells for a guy without a glove.
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ROUND 21
Best: OF Tommy Pham CIN (Angry Pirates) – I always have a soft spot for Pham, but I LOVE him in Cincinnati. Power, speed, patience combos like this aren’t typically found in the 21st.
Runner-Up: RP Corey Knebel PHI (Freedom) – I love this landing spot for Knebel and think he has as much a shot to accumulate 40 S+H as any pitcher.
Worst: C Travis Darnaud ATL (Grit B&B) – The days of him as an uber prospect have long past and left a total of one season with a line of at least 50/15/50/0/.300. It’s time to come to terms that he’s 33 and just kinda sucks most of the time.
Runner-Up: RP David Bednar PIT (Ex-Presidents) – If you’re not going to wait to pick up a bullpen until after the draft it’s important to at least pick up RPs on teams that win games. S+H can’t happen when there isn’t a lead to save or hold.
X-Factor: OF Ian Happ CHC (Moose) – The only thing assured in life is that Ian Happ will play like a top 20 player for 200 abs out of the season and a minor league bench player for 200 more abs, with another 200 abs of mediocrity in between.
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ROUND 22
Best: SP Grayson Rodriguez BAL (Ex-Presidents) – Now this is an effective use of an NA spot. Pretty sure he’s at least an SP4 as soon as he’s up, which shouldn’t be long.
Runner-Up: SS Bryson Stott PHI (Angry Pirates) – Hard to say how much he’ll play, but Bohm and Didi aren’t so entrenched that he can’t overtake either of them with solid play. This isn’t a star, but the profile is one of a top 15 fantasy player at his position at peak. Maybe it starts sooner rather than later?
Worst: 2B Vidal Brujan TB (Ring) – Like the player, hate the team. Given his issues as a hitter, I’m not sure how he ever carves out regular time at 2B or OF in TB, so it’s a wasted pick essentially. The talent is there, but I don’t see the opportunity coming.
Runner-Up: RP Gregory Soto DET (One Nut) – One of those picks that makes sense in a traditional Saves league, but here it looks like you’re just baking in a blow up or two per week. There were plenty of safer options out there.
X-Factor: SP Andrew Heaney LAD (One Nut) – I swore off him this year, even though his team situation couldn’t be much better. He has just been so prone to the occasional, completely unpredictable blowup, that I don’t have the stomach for it anymore. But he still has the stuff and control.
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ROUND 23
Best: 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn CHW (Freedom) – Man, Larussa is the freaking worst. I hate everything about how he’s been used. Hopefully he settles into a regular position now, but it’s hard to be confident.
Runner-Up: SP Garret Whitlock BOS (Cowhide) – Every year, one player reminds us that we should draft for talent, not position. Whitlock may be the guy this year.
Worst: SP Domingo German NYY (Napalm) – I can’t wait to pick him up off the wire for a spot start in August and hate myself for doing so.
Runner-Up: C Joey Bart SF (Ex-President) – Know what your immense dearth of starting pitching didn't need at this point in the draft? A third catcher.
X-Factor: 2B Cavan Biggio TOR (Napalm) – I don’t know what to think of this guy anymore. He looked like a surefire 80/20/80/20/.360 guy a year ago and now I’m not even sure he plays every day. I’d love for him to get a shot, but hard to argue with the reasoning not to let him.
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ROUND 24
Best: Everything JED - Jed traded so much capital to improve keepers and he really made the most of the picks he got sent back in return:
SS Anthony Volpe NYY (Donkey) – Given Yahoo’s rigid structure, the NA spot really needs to be dedicated to someone you think you can put right into your lineup once they’re up. Volpe may be the best option in baseball given his lack of proximity but potential promise for late season or next.
OF Jesus Sanchez MIA (Donkey) – Sanchez had more ups than downs last year after he crushed the minors most of last year. He has no one keeping him from full time ABs and the hard hit data shows he could blossom.
2B Kolten Wong MIL (Donkey) – MIL has a good lineup and Wong is right on top of it, making this pick 100/15/60/20/.340 in the bank. I loved this pick.
OF Andrew McCutchen (Donkey) – What did Cutch ever do to deserve this kind of treatment? Just give you 78/27/80/6/.334 and zero reason to think he can’t do it again. Shame on us all!
Worst: Everyone who isn’t JED.
X-Factor: SP Nick Martinez SD (Moose) – He crushed overseas and add like 4 mph since he couldn’t cut it on the Rangers staff a few years ago. He wouldn’t be the first player to transform overseas, so sign me up as interested in what he’s bringing back to the states.
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