Thursday, January 2, 2020

Offseason Preview


Unsurprisingly, the current status of most rosters is incomplete, but since we got a head start to the season, I thought it was worthwhile to take a look at where teams stand. Most rosters are either overweight draftboards or keepers, which will even out over time. Minor changes in keepers or draftboards can change this dramatically, but it gives you something to start with as you move forward with trade discussions.

Go to the 2020 Offseason Guide for updated rosters

The ranking below is based on the average rankings in draft board and keepers


Overall

RK TEAM KEEPER DRAFT AVG
1 Montezuma's Revenge 1 5 3
2 One Nut Wonders 8 2 5
3 Grit Beer and Balls 2 10 6
3 Take the Knebel 3 9 6
5 The Angry Pirates 5 8 6.5
6 Donkey Punchers 11 3 7
7 Ring of Fire 10 5 7.5
8 Sexual Napalm 4 12 8
9 Moose is Loose! 12 5 8.5
9 Knuckle Sandwich 13 4 8.5
9 Cowhide Joyride 14 3 8.5
12 Tomahawk chops 6 13 9.5
12 Anal Hershiser 9 10 9.5
14 Brokeback Moundmen 6 14 10


Keeper Rank

Each player is given a grade of 1-10 based on their 2020 expected output -- not their value as a keeper. I simply take the top highest ranked players.  The more categories they contribute to, the better the score. Scores of 10 are only given to those who contribute to all categories and can be expected to do so again (only Trout, Acuna, Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor, Turner, Betts, Story), so pitchers automatically can't get a perfect score. It's an attempt to be unbiased and someone scientific, but obviously based on my viewpoint.

1. Montezuma’s Revenge (Leech) – With Trout, Soto, Scherzer, Alonso, Tatis, and Chapman, this group is young (besides Max) and talented across positions. With the Donkey trade, there’s no depth left so there's unlikely to be more changes unless Ohtani (SP), Marquez, or Luzardo look great in the spring.

2. Grit Beer & Balls (Shomphe) – Probably more imbalance than one would prefer, but hard to see a rotation of Cole, Degrom, and Corbin ever losing pitching categories. Bellinger and Harper lead the offense, with Escobar and Mondesi worthwhile keepers and LeMahieu, Beni, and EE at least intriguing.

3. Take the Knebel (Frizzell) – Lots of talent and youth, led by Lindor and Devers on the hitting side and Bieber/Flaherty on the pitching. Hiura and Correa have question marks, but potentially huge upside, while Morton, Paddack, Conforto, Realmuto are all keeper-worthy.

4. Sexual Napalm (Gibby) – The only thing holding this group back is the unpredictability of Moncada and Giolito. If they take next steps and Machado rebounds, teamed with JD, Mookie, and Springer, this is perhaps the best group. Robles and Castillo are both keeper worthy and there are other interesting names. 

5. Tomahawk Chops (Woodward) – Doesn’t get much better than Acuna, Bregman, and Verlander. Clevinger is also a top end SP2. There’s a bunch of options for the last two spots, namely Syndergaard, Pham, Albies, and Sano, but each has an issue that makes them less than clear-cut. Lot’s of other interesting names on the roster, but takes some imagination/faith.

6. (TIE) Angry Pirates (Baker) – Yelich and Rendon lead a group that could excel again or fall on its face.  Whether you get the JoRam of 2018 and Soler of 2019 is the biggest question. Muncy and Gallo are solid. Rosario is capable keeper but worse in OBP leagues, while Paxton’s IP hold him back.

6. (TIE) Brokeback Moundmen (Watson) – Turner is the centerpiece, but age/health are a consideration with Donadson, Stras, Rizzo, Kershaw, Darvish, while consistency are potential issues with KMarte, ERod, and Hoskins. LRobert is intriguing, but flawed.

8. One Nut Wonders (Ouellette) – This is a solid, if not spectacular group with Freeman, Boegarts, Abreu, Semien, and Ozuna unlikely to outproduce last year’s solid results. Yordan and Snell could make it a top three group with some minor adjustments. There’s an extra one in there so not sure who the odd one out is. 

9. Anal Hershiser (Simons) – Just slightly behind the previous three teams due mainly to Altuve’s decline and Vlad Jr’s lack of production. If either of those ships are righted, this quickly becomes a top 3 group along with Buehler, Arenado, Marte, and Baez.  Jiminez gives this group another option while CSantana and Lynn had keeper-worth seasons but less than keeper-worthy careers.

10. Ring of Fire (Loisel) – Story is a stud and Suarez proved to be a top 20 player, but there’s some noteworthy declines in long-time ROFers Bryant and Goldy, while Berrios wasn’t nearly as impressive. Mancini needs another year of production to be high level. Minor and Carrasco are names of note.

11. Donkey Punchers (Davidson) – The trades helped this group immensely, even if Bauer was an overpay. Olson and Meadows could be on the brink of superstardom, which would make this group a contender as long as Blackmon and Nola can repeat their annual production and Villar has another top-25 season contributing to all categories.  Franco is probably too far to consider.

12. Moose is Loose (Bishop) – Judge and Bell are sturdy cornerstones and the pitching provides reliable, albeit old, stability in Sale, Grienke, MadBum. The sixth could be consistent Cruz, potential-infused Bichette, or emerging WContreras. Castellanos and Boyd also had noteworthy seasons.

13. Knuckle Sandwich (Scott) – Headlined by Torres and Merrifield, the group requires a lot of faith to be seen as a contender due to GSanchez’s inconsistency and Kepler’s lack of track record. Severino is not clear cut and Senzel didn’t do enough to make him a shoe-in, while Segura disappointed. Could be really good or… not.

14. Cowhide Joyride (Fox) – Well the draftboard is great, but there’s work to do here. Even Giancarlo is hard to count on, while the bloom of CSeager wasn’t what was once promised. Dahl occasionally looks like a keeper and Lux has promise, but Andrus is just OK and no one is left after that.

Draft Board


Team789101112131415161718192021222324SCORE
Cowhide Joyride (Dave)312153300000000000134
One Nut Wonders (Jason)312111102310010001113
Donkey Punchers (Jed)210134200001211000111
Knuckle Sandwich (Chris Scott)112111122123000000109
Montezuma's Revenge (Adam)03020010202222011090
Moose is Loose! (Brian)11111111111111111190
Ring of Fire (Dagan)11111111111111111190
The Angry Pirates (Kyle)11111011012121111185
Take the Knebel (Jeff)11011111110101211379
Anal Hershiser (Justin)01110002121112121177
Grit Beer and Balls (Chris Shomphe)00110121211111112177
Sexual Napalm (Mike)11200102010001322275
Tomahawk chops (Chad)00110002111231121170
Brokeback Moundmen (Matt)01010001111111223260