Week 3 Real Rankings

NOTES

Can't pontificate too much this week, but parity is alive and well in H&T! The actual standings and the real rankings continue to fluctuate considerably each week. We're probably about four weeks from knowing about where we all stand, so good luck as we enter the difficult period where you have to take a hard look at even the highest draft picks and consider their roster-worthiness. Word of advice -- don't even think about the draft at this point. If the sample size is big enough to draw a conclusion you're not comfortable with, move along if there's a better option.  Someone on the waiver wire right now will end up a top 30 player -- it's often just a matter of making a difficult decision that can be the difference between a success or a failure.

Of course... I dropped a boring Brandon Belt on the same day he started a four-game HR streak, so what do I know?

Week 2 Real Rankings

 

NOTES

While it's nice to see my team on top, it takes a while for these to actually reflect how good the teams are. Just working with small sample sizes, although Hanley has promised 30/30 and he's on pace for it, so be ready.

The matchups weren't all the close this week and most RR reflect the Actual performance. Take The Knebel and Tomahawk had an interesting matchup with one team flopping in pitching and the other in hitting, but both were top 6 teams for the week.

There have been 23 weather-related postponements this year - a new record. This is no doubt impacting outcomes (especially if you were counting on Twins or White Sox Fri-Sun), but Sunday's doldrums pretty much hurt everybody.  The nice part is you'll get those back at some point.

It will be interesting to see how speed is valued this year. So far, the league is averaging a little of 0.5 SB per day and about 4 per week. Meanwhile, the league is average 1.1 HR per day and 8 per week.  There are only 13 players with more than three SBs and only 10 were drafted (Craig Gentry, Rajai Davis, Tim Anderson were not) and only 8 are ranked in the top 300 overall.

It's always fun to look at the overall leaders since Yahoo customizes it to our settings. I added a column showing when they were selected or kept ("K"). Not a whole lot to take away though since some are primarily based off a few good days (Didi, Baez) while others show some very interesting young guys (Chapman, Albies), but usually there aren't so many Keepers in the top 25 so early. Sounds like you guys knew what you were doing this year.

Week 1 Real Rankings

NOTES

For Jed, and as a reminder to everyone else, the Real Rankings are something I started doing a few years ago as a way for everyone to assess their teams beyond wins and losses.  Instead of matching up your team’s production vs. your opponent, the Real Rankings match them up against the rest of the league. The two tables show your Real Ranking for the week and the average Real Ranking for the season.  The lower your score, the higher your rank.

The Real Rankings have been extremely accurate over the course of the season. Obviously, there is a lot of variation week to week based solely on the variable matchups. But by the end of the year the different in the Real Rankings and the Actual Standings is usually no more than 2 spots. 

This verifies that winning % is a good way to assess team performance, but allows us all to be a little more honest when assessing our team’s production.  Week 1 has provided a perfect example of this with no other but yours truly.  In the Actual Standings I am 12th, but in the Real Ranking I am 2nd due to my matchup with the top Real Ranking team, Anal Hershiser. So it allows me to be a little less pissed and perhaps a little more patient.  Meanwhile, even though Justin is second in the standings, he probably should feel pretty confident that he was actually the best team through week 1.  Conversely, someone like Kyle and his Angry Pirates might not want to feel so comfortable sitting at the top of the Actual Standings because he actually wasn’t all the productive compared to the rest of the league, finishing 10th in the Real Ranking. He just benefited from an easier matchup in Dave. 

For the tables, the Weekly ranking just shows where you ranked in each individual category. Going left to right in columns, the Overall ranking shows the RR (ranking), ACT (actual standings), +/- (difference between Actual and Real – this should get smaller as the year goes on), Team, OV (Overall – average overall ranking of all weeks), H (average ranking for season – just hitting), RK (ranking of H), P (average ranking for season – just pitching), RK (ranking of P), VAR (variance – shows volatility of the weekly results for the season), 1-21 (weeks)

I will also include Notes most weeks based on the week’s activity, results, trends, etc. Not a whole lot to note this week other than both Shohei Ohtanis ended up on Gibby’s roster! This makes me happy. I’m guessing Yahoo will change this next year (they seem to be getting a lot of flack from the industry). It will be interesting to see how big of an asset he becomes, but the early returns are pretty amazing.

Always interesting to see how quickly people give up on players. It’s obviously warranted in some cases, usually because of injury or playing time concerns. So far, Lewis Brinson (13th round) is the highest pick dropped.

The weekly totals are high due to the long week.  For this week, the average totals would be more like 30r, 8hr, 29 rbi, 4 sb, .328 obp, 60 k, 3.53/1.24, 4 qs, 3 sh. Of  course, there were also a lot of weather related issues obscuring the numbers.  QS are always lower earlier in the season as well.

Keep in mind the 60 transaction limit is still in place. It’s always a lot higher earlier in the season, but something everyone should monitor.

2018 DRAFT REVIEW

Round 7

Best:  1B Matt Olson OAK, Tomahawk
Like the first pick (Ian Happ), these are guys I thought would find a way onto to rosters as a sixth keeper. For Chad, he just drafted a guy he didn’t keep.  In 59 games, Olson put up rates that amounted to a line of 99/72/135/0/.352.  As much as I like Happ, Olson has a clear path regular playing time and could be a top keeper for years to come.

Runner-Up:  SP Jose Quintana CHC, Take the Knebel 
It looks like JQ sacrificed some rates in exchange for Ks last year, but in reality his underlying stats showed just a little bad luck that improved exponentially in CHC. Better than a lot of arms that were kept.

Worst:  3B Kyle Seager SEA, Keep Off Groin 
I know it was an off year, but outside of 2016 his season are just so-so by today’s standards. Career line of 77/25/85/7/.332 over 162 games. And he’s 30 now. There were better options.

Runner-Up:  1B Carlos Santana PHI, One Nut 
Eerily similar profile to Seager for his career 83/25/85/6/.364 over 162. Basically just trading some OBP for position scarcity. Ho hum.

X-Factor:  SP Shohei Ohtani LAA, S. Napalm 
Big risk because it is such a big investment and it’s unclear whether he’ll stay healthy and pitch enough innings to warrant selection over guys like Lester, Godley, Wood, Castillo, Berrios, Gray. Perfect Gibby pick.

Round 8

Best:   2B Ozzie Albies ATL, Tomahawk
Chad sacrificed some keeper quality to improve his draftboard in the offseason, but he nailed his first two picks. Young hitters who were brilliant in limited time, with strong pedigree and a clear path to playing time. Albies would’ve been 91/16/75/21/.354 at his 2017 rates, when he was 20 yo, so there’s plenty of room for growth.

Runner-Up:   SP Jon Lester CHC, Thor
At 34, it’s a little early to put this perennial keeper out to pasture.  Sure these’s declining skills, but a 11.0% SwStr (swinging strike rate) is excellent and his xFIP shows he should be more like a 3.80 era guys, with 20-22 QS vs. 18 last year and 26 the year before.

Worst:  SS Javier Baez CHC, Anal 
He’s only 25, but we’re still waiting for the first 500 ab season and not sure it’s coming this year. I loved him as a potential 25/25 prospect, but his 162 avg is 68/20/70/12/.301 and I’m not sure it’s going to suddenly get better. I know one thing though – he walks too little and strikes out too much to ever be a .330 obp guy.

Runner-Up:  OF Nick Castellanos DET, Moose
He’s going to lose 3B eligibility this year, he doesn’t walk (6.2%), he doesn’t steal, doesn’t score (Mitch Moreland scored 73 in 100 less plate appearances), medium power, and lucked into a 100-rbi season.  He does have age on his side (just turned 26) and a fabulous hard hit percentage, but the 13.1 SwStr rate is very poor.  Matt Carpenter would’ve given more position flexibility and category coverage.

X-Factor:  OF Kyle Shwarber CHC, One Nut 
I really don’t like this pick with the top pick in the round, but I can see why it was made. It was really hard to find big upside among hitters with assured playing time this year. Inconsistent is an understatement, but the reality is that when you look at the 162 game average you see what you could eventually find, perhaps as early as this year:  96/38/83/3/.330. And his BABIP of .246 and 12.1 BB% suggests that OBP should be above .340. Elevated PT risk waters down that potential considerably, but not a surprising pick for Jason, aka Mr. X Factor.

Round 9

Best:  OF Lorenzo Cain MIL, Keep Off Groin
I didn’t want to choose Cain here because it’s so unsexy, but I can’t deny what I see as a clear path to 110/20/60/30/.340 in a hitter-friendly setting, providing health. He would’ve made a very unsexy keeper, but it would’ve been justified. Great grab as the 116th player taken.

Runner-Up:  SP Johnny Cueto SF, Montezumas
The unsexiness continues. Just boring, but a perfect complement to the first pick of Luis Castillo. Cueto’s injuries last year shouldn’t have delayed his selection this long. They happen and he’s 32 with good injury history (210 ip 2014-16).

Worst:  SP Tyler Chatwood CHC, Take the Knebel 
Like the player and the situation and the boldness, but you’re not getting any credit for taking a player a round too early. Jon Gray, Stroman, Taillon, Cueto, Snell, Fulmer… left a lot of quality in your wake and he would’ve been there for the second pick in round 10.

Runner-Up:  OF Gregory Polanco PIT, Tomahawk 
Loved him at one point, but he’s 26 and running out of time to prove he’s better than the 83/17/70/22/.317 line he’s posted in his career. With the first pick in this round, it was a reach for a guy who has never stood out in one category.

X-Factor:  SP Blake Snell TB, Angry Pirates
The epitome of risk, Snell’s hype and ADP seem inconsistent with anyone who owned him all of last season. The stuff is electric, but he converted on 29.2% of his starts to QS and walked 10.8%. His xFIP was actually 0.50 worse than his 4.00 ERA.  His 11.0 K-BB% was in Sabatha/Odorizzi/Nolasco/Kennedy country (not a good place to be). BUT he improved a lot in the second half and had a great spring. Good pick for a team with a  lot of picks.

Round 10

Best:  OF Nomar Mazara TEX, Tomahawk 
Still pisses me off. You know what, fuck you Chad.  Mazara and his sexy left handed swing and highly advanced approach for a 22-year old sucks. And so do you.

Runner-Up:  3B Eugenio Suarez CIN, Thor 
Criminally undervalued, Suarez walks a ton and shows nothing in his underlying numbers indicating his 87/26/82/4/.367 season was a fluke.  At 26, he could easily be a keeper next year.

Worst:  C Mike Zunino SEA, Take the Knebel 
Take it from the guy who passed on Ozuna because he really wanted a quality backstop like Grandal last year, just wait on catcher. I know you were well into your draft, but there’s nothing indicating Zunino won’t be maddeningly inconsistent once again.

Runner-Up:  etc. Marwin Gonzalez HOU, Take the Knebel 
Sorry to pick on you twice, and I really don’t hate the pick. But I hate the name Marwin… and I hate elevated BABIPs (.343) mixed with elevated soft contact rates (18.6%).

X-Factor:   OF Billy Hamilton CIN, Ring 
The writing was on the wall when the word got out that Jesse Winker had caught the favor of CIN brass. Part time play is coming and Hamilton runs the risk of turning into Rajai Davis if he doesn’t produce early on. 

Round 11

Best:  SP Sean Manaea OAK, Brokeback 
Manaea is a super interesting pitcher because he doesn’t throw hard, but he has great 11.4% SwStr and the pedigree and ballpark to take his production to the next level. It was just OK last year, but things really started to thin out after this and he looks poised for the next step.

Runner-Up:  OF Delino Deshields TEX, Brokeback 
For what you gain in the other categories and playing time surety, I’ll gladly take DD and his 10.0 BB% over Hamilton. Last year’s rate equate to a line of 111/9/33/43/.347, which is damn near keeper worthy.

Worst:  RP Kenley Jensen LAD, S. Napalm 
Dammit, Gibby. First closer chosen always gets this award.  RPs simply don’t differentiate themselves enough to warrant this selection. I don’t need to compare Brad Hand and Felipe Rivero’s stats from last year to make my point. All I need to do is ask who had Brad Hand and Felipe Rivero on their radar at last year’s draft? MLB cycles through new dominant RPs like Byron Buxton cycles through sucking and not sucking (Burrrnnnnn).

Runner-Up:  C Salvador Perez KC, Moose 
There is not greater example of the chasm in values between OBP and AVG leagues than Salvy. With 27 HR and consistent ABs, there’s a time and place to draft a guy with a 3.4 BB%. It’s not here.

X-Factor:  SP Lucas Giolito CHW, Take the Knebel 
I can’t think of player who has fallen in and out of the good graces of analysts before putting in any significant time in the bigs than Giolio. The bottom line is he made 7 starts last year, converted 5 to QS, Kd 19.0% and BBd 6.7%.  That said, his small sample size BABIP was insanely low at .189 and his xFIP was a full 2 point higher than his 2.38 era. He wasn’t what he was last year, but he could be really close at some point soon.

Round 12

Best:  2B Jason Kipnis CLE, Brokeback 
The last two years were difficult, injury plagued seasons for Kipnis, but its easy to lose track of how good he was from 2012-2016. His 162-game average is 90/17/74/23/.340, he’s only 31, he’s healthy, and he’s added OF eligibility in a strong lineup. This is a steal.

Runner-Up:  OF Jay Bruce NYM, Angry
Do you know he’s only 31? Seems like he’s been around forever, but that’s because he was a regular at the age of 21. This is a really easy 80/30/90/5/.320 without blinking. Plus, his streakiness is potentially beneficial, because you can just sit him when he’s slow. That brings his season OBP up at least 10 points.

Worst:  RP Andrew Miller CLE, Brokeback 
Look at his stats. Look at Anthony Swarzak’s stats. Say sorry.

Runner-Up:  1B Greg Bird NYY, Keep Off Groin 
We all knew he was injured in an area where he has had problems before, so it was a calculated risk that was just a poor decision at this point in the draft.

X-Factor:  OF Ian Desmond, Montezumas 
I closed my eyes and pretended last year didn’t happen. The problem with doing that is you ignore the very really threats to his playing time in Cargo, Parra, McMahon, and Dahl.  At this point I drafted all pitchers, so I needed some upside. He’s 32, playing in COL, and is a year removed from 107/22/86/21/.335.

Round 13

Best:  SP Kenta Maeda LAD, Brokeback 
Really surprised he fell this far because the preseason analysis was pretty favorable.  Career average is 179 ip with 186 ks and a tidy 3.73/1.15. Even something less than that is pretty good value here.

Runner-Up:  SP Michael Wacha STL, Angry Pirates 
I had Wacha in my top 50 and this is pretty far outside that, so even though he’s boring, he throws hard, limits hard contact and should get you a QS about 60% of the time with 7k/2bb. Not bad at this point.

Worst:  SP Dinelson Lamet SD, S. Napalm 
Sure this round had Cody Allen and Brad Hand, but I’m going to ignore complaining about RPs every round. Like Greg Bird, Lamet’s injury was known and ominous, even if we didn’t have the full context. They said May, but elbow injuries in young pitchers on non-contending teams are really a silly risk at this point. Even if he improves on schedule, the odds that he makes it through 6 ip before July are extremely low. Just one of those situations that would be best left avoided, certainly not with guys like Hamels, Faria, Bundy, Wacha, Maeda, Pomeranz, Montgomery, Roark, Estrada going around the same time.

Runner-Up:  SP Steven Matz NYM, Donkey 
QUICK! Name me one of Steven Matz’s redeeming values! ENNNHH – trick question because he has none!! No SP that starts his career at the age of 24 and hasn’t pitched 250 innings by his age 27 season can have a redeeming quality!

X-Factor:  SP Danny Salazar CLE, Take the Knebel 
Maybe the riskiest pick of the draft. There’s top-10 potential in that fragile arm/shoulder/elbow. With his rates, we’d be talking 250 ks with a 3.50/1.25 if he ever made it to 200 innings. The prognosis is OK at this point, but man he’s tough to own.

Round 14

Best:  SP Drew Pomeranz BOS, Brokeback 
Quick! Guess the number of SPs who have averaged 170 ip, 180 k, and an ERA under 3.40 over the past two seasons? Nine. Now guess how many of those weren’t keepers? Two – Pomeranz and Lester. The preseason injury was minor and the fragile stigmas is unwarranted. This could be the steal of the draft.

Runner-Up:  OF Steve Souza Jr ARI, Ring
If it weren’t for the pectoral injury, Souza’s 78/30/78/16/.351 season is arguably keeper worthy. In a better lineup and ballpark, those numbers could improve and the delay to his season will be an afterthought.

Worst:  OF Randall Grichuk TOR, Brokeback 
The team name is so appropriate. I can just picture Watson celebrating his sub-.300 OF hitting his 25th HR of the season in September after another prolonged minor league stint, shouting “ I WISH I KNEW HOW TO QUIT YOU.”

Runner-Up:  RP Edwin Diaz SEA, Take the Knebel 
I didn’t hate this pick anymore than any other RP pick above round 17, but this was a solid round for the most part. Diaz gets it just because Addison Reed put up pretty much the same numbers last year and was selected 9 rounds later.

X-Factor:  2B Jonathan Villar MIL, Moose 
Talk about extremes. Is Villar the 92/19/63/62/.369 guy we saw in 2016 or the 49/11/40/23/.263 version from 2017? If he’s in the middle, that’s 75/15/50/40/.320, which is great value here. The problem is, you have no clue which one you’ll see.

Round 15

Best:  SP JA Happ TOR, Ring 
I had Happ at 55th overall and we’re somewhere in the 70s now. Happ has zero redflags, converts more than half his starts to QS, with 3.50/1.30 rates and about 8.5 k and 3.0 bb per nine. Nothing flashy but solid and a great find for Dagan here.

Runner-Up:  3B Evan Longoria SF, Cowhide 
Last year wasn’t great, but he has averaged 80/26/87/3/.325 and 160 games the past five seasons with not a huge amount of variation. This is an under the radar pick because he’s going to a pitcher’s park, but he’s been at a pitcher’s park, so you can expect more of the same solidness.

Worst: SP Sean Newcomb ATL, Thor 
There’s a lot to like about Newcomb long term, but there are few things more maddening that rostering a young SP who can’t get through 5 ip and walks 12.5 BB%.  That 9.7 K/9 doesn’t help much when there is essentially zero chance he’s getting to 9.

Runner-Up:  SP Tyler Glasnow PIT, S. Napalm 
See Newcomb, add better pedigree, subtract bullpen role.

X-Factor:  2B Scooter Gennett CIN, Tomahawk 
Know what’s nuts? If you took his rates and applied them to 650 PAs, his numbers are even more insane: 105/35/127/4/.342.  The launch angle revolution has a lot of skeptics, but we all could look very foolish for passing on Scoots so many times… or he could remind us why he was deemed not worthy of a bench spot on the Brewers in spring training last year.

Round 16

Best:  2B Ian Kinsler LAA, Montezumas 
A lot like the Longoria pick, but with a better team context. Kinsler has slowed for sure, but his three year average is 100/20/69/13/.335 and now he’s leading off in front of the best hitter in the world and a deep, retooled lineup.

Runner-Up:  C JT Realmuto MIA, S. Napalm 
Probably would’ve been taken 5 rounds earlier if he wasn’t nursing an injury. The Ignore MIA trend was a real thing too. He’ll get plenty of productive at bats for a backstop and will contribute everywhere. Great add by Gibby.

Worst:  3B Maikel Franco PHI, Donkey 
Someday I think he’ll be pretty good, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll get that OBP above .310. He doesn’t get on base enough to score runs, doesn’t steal, and HR and RBI are mild contributions for the position. He would’ve been available in the 20th.

Runner-Up:  OF Odubel Herrera PHI, Donkey 
There’s a group of stats I exclude hitters outright if they place in all three – a walk rate below 6%, a K rate above 22%, and a BABIP above .330.  Not many do this, but Odubel is one of them. His 67/14/56/8/.325 line wasn’t appealing as it was, but these underlying stats show it could get worse. Between Franco and Herrera and the presence of Scott Kingery, this could prove to be a critically bad round for the new guy.

X-Factor:  TIE SP Miles Mikolas STL, Keep Off Groin, and SP Mike Minor TEX, Cowhide
These guys have a lot more and common than alliteration in their names. They both are essentially complete unknowns with enough scout-driven buzz to draft them high but still have no clue what to expect.  There are safer bets at this point, but safe is no fun.

Round 17

Best:  SS Marcus Semien OAK, Thor 
Without injury, I have no doubt Semien would’ve produced the 89/17/67/20/.325 pace his rates played out to over a full season. That makes him a top 8 SS easy and worthy of selection 7 rounds earlier. Great value here for Chris.

Runner-Up:  SP Joe Musgrove PIT, Ring 
When Eno Sarris (former Fangraphs, now The Athletic) ranks a SP 53rd overall  despite only starting 15 games last year, I pay attention. PIT is a great spot for him to take advantage of three quality pitches and a 11.7% SwStr. The only question I have is health and the shoulder injury to start the season and setback since aren’t great news.

Worst:  SP Andrew Cashner BAL, Keep Off Groin 
For a guy who has a 64.3 QS% last year, I should like him more, but it was 166 ip with an awful 6.1% SwStr and a K-BB% of 3.1% (means he essentially walks as many guys as he strikes out). I think luck had a lot to do with the strong QS numbers and his 5.30 xFIP (ERA was 3.40) and .266 BABIP show I’m probably right. That, with a spotty injury history, makes him waiver wire fodder by June.

Runner-Up:  SP Zack Davies MIL, Donkey 
Davies isn’t as bad as Cashner, but it’s not too far off. There’s just nothing interesting about anything he does other than keeps balls on the ground and does pretty well keeping the ball in the park. He still gets beaten up and the 4.42 xFIP and 7.2 SwStr just means his positives are going to be a lot less fun than his negatives are going to be maddening.

X-Factor:  SP Matt Harvey NYM, Tomahawk 
Can’t really do anything with the numbers to justify this, other than to look at what was once an elite arsenal and his current health. My guess is we’ll know pretty quickly whether The Dark Blight can be interesting again.

Round 18

Best:  1B Logan Morrison MIN, Tomahawk 
If you would’ve told me this guy was not going to be a keeper after he posted a 75/38/85/2/.353 season last year, I would’ve said you’re crazy. But sure enough, here he is. It didn’t help that he lingered in FA for so long, and the fact that guys like him and Scooter waited this long to be selected shows the launch angle revolution skepticism. It also doesn’t help that there is plenty of power to be found, particularly at 1B. Still, this is great value for Chad here.

Runner-Up:  OF Shin Soo Choo TEX, Angry 
Choo are so beautiful… to me. Choo are so beautiful… to me. Can’t you see-eeeeee? Choo’s everything I hoped for. He’s everything I nee-eeed. Choo are so beautiful… tooooo…. Meeeeeee.

Worst:  SP Walker Buehler LAD, S. Napalm 
Great prospect who will likely contribute this year, yes yes blah blah. But let’s just run down who Gibby has selected at this point with his great draft board:  Samardzjia (injured), Lamet (injured), Glasnow (longman relief), Robles (minors), Realmuto (injured), Alex Reyes (injured), Pederson (platooned)… topped off with Eloy Jimenez (minors) with his last pick. Just who exactly is going to be playing for your team for the first two months of the season Gibby?

Runner-Up:  OF Joc Pederson LAD, S. Napalm 
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me twice and then fool someone else, well, bravo. That three month stretch in 2015 was magical, but he’s pretty much stayed in platoon zone since then. Someday maybe, but I don’t see it coming this year.

X-Factor:  1B Hanley Ramirez BOS, Montezumas 
Even though we’re 11 rounds into this thing, this was only my 8th selection so it was quite a bit more risk than it might seem.  Then you’ve got the small matter of his 2016 numbers (81/30/111/9/.361) vs. his 2017 numbers (58/23/62/1/.320). I don’t know what I’m getting, but I’m pretty sure he’s always been motivated by money and he has a vesting option based on plate appearances and a capable backup behind him. I’m betting on the 2016 version. Oh and he said he’s going 30/30, so that’s, like, obviously going to happen.

Round 19

Best:  SS Zack Cozart LAA, Montezumas 
I was bummed to miss out on Semien two rounds earlier, but was psyched to see Cozart still waiting for me. Always known as a defense first guy, ZC made adjustments and became more patient. Without an injury that limited him to 500 PAs, his rates played out to 103/31/81/4/.385 for the full season. That’s insanely valuable for this late. The best thing is, there’s nothing in his underlying profile that indicates this was a fluke, other than he’s never walked this much before. Health is always an issue, but he could be humongous value here.

Runner-Up:  SP Hyun-Jin Ryu, Cowhide 
I’ve always had a soft spot for Ryu because he’s been so productive when healthy. The problem is he’s rarely healthy. For now, he’s upright and has a spot as long as he’s productive. His 162-game average over his career is 197 IP, 171 Ks, and a tidy 3.44/1.26.  That’s 10th round production almost 9 rounds later. Nice spot to take a shot.

Worst:  SP Julio Urias LAD, One Nut 
This is wasted pick. If he’s back it won’t be until mid August and LAD has plenty of options to fall back on that won’t disrupt the development of a fine 22yo prospect. Jason will need the DL spot before then and even if he comes back this year, the production so far has not given you any confidence he’ll be that great of a contributor. Jason still had a third of his roster left to construct at this point, so this is a lost opportunity.

Runner-Up:  SP Forrest Whitley HOU, Tomahawk 
In our league, NAs need to have the ability to contribute this season or be big enough of a prospect to be kept next season. Whitley is suspended half the year for PEDs and HOU boasts more depth in SPs than any other team. The likelihood that he comes up as anything more than a good middle reliever is small.

X-Factor:  SP Carlos Rodon CHW, Tomahawk 
The June timeframe leaves enough of the season to warrant a roster spot, but what you’ll be getting when the time comes is unclear. He mostly sucked last year and his spotty control has always been an issue. Plus, CHW has little reason to handle him with anything less than baby Trump-size kid gloves. We all know the potential and it’s apparent in the 25.6 K%, but all we know right now is potential.

Round 20

Best:  OF Kevin Kiermaier TB, One Nut 
If it wasn’t for a midseason injury, I have no doubt KK would’ve achieved the 86/23/60/25/.338 season his rates worked out to over a full season. That’s nearly a keeper – and it’s a great example of how much value can be found late in our drafts. SBs will be hard to come by and KK could get to 30.

Runner-Up:  SP Jake Junis KC, Tomahawk
Picking well late allows good owners to get by with mediocre or bad draft boards and Chad had some great hits late. Junis is one of those guys that didn’t have the minor league numbers to stand out, but has a couple good pitches and one great pitch to go along with excellent control mean he could be an excellent SP5-6 at a cheap price.

Worst:  1B Albert Pujols LAA, Cowhide 
The RBIs will continue to be there, but there are more threats to his playing and a severe regression in his on base skills – averaged .308 the last three season. The run production isn’t great either and 23 HR will be replicated by many middle infielders and catchers.

Runner-Up:  C Brian McCann HOU, Anal
There’s enough regression in skills and catching options with Gattis there to be wary of playing time problems. Plus the team tried to trade for Realmuto. I think he’ll be mostly OK, but not anything great and the PT might make Justin want to move on sooner rather than later. Justin still had work to do (7 more picks) so it wasn’t a throw away pick either.

X-Factor:  SS Fernando Tatis Jr SD, Montezumas 
As mentioned in the Whitely comment, the NA spot needs to either contribute this year or be a top prospect for next year. Tatis is on the fringe for both. He’s only 19, but SD loves rushing their young guys and he’ll be in AA a year after hitting 84/22/75/32/.379 in 486 at high A. If he is stalled at all, this will be a wasted pick. If he develops, he’ll be up this year and a top-3 prospect next year.

Round 21

Best:  C Wellington Castillo CHW, Angry 
This is a good catcher pick. Kyle only had three RPs to draft after this and Castillo should get plenty of run on a team without a viable second option. He only had 365 PAs last year and hit 20 bombs with .323 OBP. Fine value here.

Runner-Up:  OF David Dahl COL, Thor 
Perfect player for the NA spot. He immediately becomes a viable starter once he comes up and is an easy stash in the mean time. Great pick with potential keeper value.

Worst:  C Austin Barnes LAD, Cowhide 
I like both the LAD catchers but the presence of the other essentially negates the value over the course of the season. No reason to have two catchers, so pretty droppable unless something changes. That’s tough for a team that still has 7 spots to fill at this point.

Runner-Up:  RP AJ Minter ATL, Tomahawk 
Lots of hype, but I don’t see him being more valuable than Morrow, Familia, Brach, Herrera, and about a dozen other FAs.

X-Factor:  OF Jose Martinez STL, Angry 
This is the reason I like to extrapolate the production over a full season. Wouldn’t a 100/30/97/8/.379 OF be nice value this late? There’s playing time concerns, but if he’s as productive as he was, that won’t be an issue.

Round 22

Best:  RP Brandon Morrow CHC, One Nut 
Still trying to figure out why Morrow wasn’t more popular in analyst rankings this year. I’ve always liked his potential as a starter and he has been great as a reliever. I think he’ll succeed in this role for one of the best teams in the league. 45 S+H is easily within his grasp.

Runner-Up:  OF Mitch Haniger SEA, Thor 
Mitch was a great pick last year and was moving right along before he got injured. The rates over a full season seem perfectly reasonable expectation:  92/25/75/8/.352.

Worst:  SP Jose Urena MIA, Cowhide 
Yes, he started on opening day, but that’s just about the only redeeming feature I see in Urena. There’s potential for a serviceable SP7-8, but think Dave needed some good upside here.

Runner-Up:  OF Mallex Smith TB, Anal 
He’s just a platoon guy with a lot of speed and not much else. There were other more intriguing options for a bench spot.

X-Factor:  RP Greg Holland FA, Donkey 
A definite flier because it wasn’t looking like anyone wanted to pay Holland, but sure enough he quickly found a prime closer position on a good team. Not a whole lot of risk because of how late it was, but there were still some very good RPs to choose from. Nice pick.

Round 23

Best:  C Yadier Molina STL, Thor 
No clue why one of the best hitting catchers in the league with the most playing time got selected this late. He and Salvy were essentially the same in terms of production when you add HR and SB (28 vs 27) but Molina had a more palatable OBP and Perez was take ELEVEN ROUNDS EARLIER.

Runner-Up:  OF Willie Calhoun TEX, Moose 
Another perfect NA type as he should be up and productive within the next month.

Worst:  RP Kyle Barraclough MIA, Angry 
The only thing worse than rostering the closer for the worst team in the league is rostering the setup guy for the worst team in the league.

Runner-Up:  RP Mark Melancon SF, Donkey 
I’ll cut Jed a break because we didn’t know the extent of the injuries at this point, but the fact that it was Mark Melancon and he was injured was enough for me to cross him off the list completely.

X-Factor:  C Jonathan Lucroy OAK, Montezumas
Normally when a player goes from COL to OAK, you’d plan for him to be significantly more challenged to produce. But Lucroy has a long history of quality production at a shallow position. He’s well worth a shot here for an optimist looking for upside and waiting to fill the C position.

Round 24

Best:   OF Dexter Fowler STL, Anal 
It’s just criminal that a cross-category contributor like Fowler lasted this long. He’s not always the healthiest fella, but his 162-game average of 95/13/55/18/.365 is perfectly reasonable to expect on a per game basis. Great add.

Runner-Up:  RP Chris Devenski HOU, Tomahawk
Devenski’s line was essentially identical to Raisel Iglesias, who went 18 rounds earlier. Plus, Giles isn’t the most stable closer. Not sure why Will Harris was taken before him.

Worst:  RP Emilio Pagan OAK, Moose 
I can count on one hand the number of times a player has been selected who I have literally never heard of. This is one of them.

Runner-Up:  SP Brent Honeywell TB, Thor 
Guessing Chris went to bed? Honeywell just went down with TJS and Chris already has an NA in Dahl, soooooo….

X-Factor:  SP Chris Stratton SF, Montezumas 
Stratton didn’t have a clear spot until Samardzjia and MadBum went down, but the former first rounder has a couple months to show his stuff is better than Ty Blach, Derek Holland, Chris Heston, and Tyler Beede (it is).