Category Rankings

Created this and thought it was worth sharing to give you an idea where you rank in each category. Obviously, this is cumulative so it doesn't necessarily reflect the team you are currently rostering, but it gives you a good idea of how you've performed in each category and which categories to possibly target in a trade. 

Week 12 Real Rankings

 NOTES

- Several lopsided victories among the top teams in the Actual Standings caused quite the stir in the playoff picture. However, one of the teams that probably got screwed out of a lopsided win ended the week on top, with LOC's 5-5 battle with Montezumas.  The teams both deserved better, ending the week #2 and #3 in the Real Rankings.

- The Donkey Punchers are the real story the last few weeks. Chris Shannon has been on a roll after an unceremonious start to the season. Over the last three weeks, he's pretty easily the top team:

1	Donkey Punchers	4.60
2	Livin' on a Correa	4.93
3	Montezuma's	5.13
4	Ring of Fire	5.87
5	Keep Off Groin	6.63
6	Thor's Hammered	7.17
7	Cowhide Joyride	7.20
8	Stroman my Cobb	7.60
9	The Angry Pirates	7.63
10	Sexual Napalm	7.93
11	Moose is Loose!	8.30
12	Anal Hershiser	8.37
13	Brokeback	9.17
14	One Nut Wonders	9.17

- On the other end of the rankings, Anal has started to slide after clinging on to the top seed in the Actuals for a few weeks. The 10.9 this week was fourth worst week for any team this season.

- Though we have two teams sitting nearly 30 games out, it's been pretty slow on the trade front, which is unusual for the league. One reason is the difference between last and a playoff spot is only 15 games, which can easily be made up over the course of a couple months. There are still 90 "games" left in the season.

- In terms of Real Rankings, the spread between first and last place is just over 3.0.  Last year at this time, it was 3.7.  The difference is at the top, where the first place average last year was 5.17 compared to this year's 5.85 by Ring.

- Coincidentally, last year it was One Nut in first place with that sparkling 5.17.  This year, it's One Nut taking up the rear with 8.85 -- and it's not really close. Which brings up another interesting point:  if you remove the last place One Nutters, the spread is a minuscule 2.3!  That's a huge difference from last year.

-  In reality, while it may seem slow on the trade front, there have actually been more trades this year than there was through June of last year (14 vs. 13). The reason it seems so slow? Because 9 of those 14 trades have involved one team (Brokeback).

- Just to shake things up, let's do the top 25 from the last 30 days.  It's chock full of rookies, emerging youngsters, consistent stars, recovery stories and even some flat out-of-nowheres:

- There are still five teams projected to exceed the 60 transaction limit (LOC, Montezumas, Stroman, Brokeback, Thors), but it appears the only teams that are a real threat to come up against it are Chad and Me.

- Side note about transaction limits - the fact that Chris Shannon and his Donkey Punchers might be the top team in the league and has only used 10 pickups is truly remarkable.  But it also lends credence to his rebuilding efforts last year. No one worked the phones to liquidate assets quite like Chris did last year and it paid off in a breathtaking draftboard, which is showing its worth now.

- Jason paid! That makes three of you. Comon guys - paypal: adrok71@yahoo.com

Week 11 Real Rankings

Trade Reviews

Napalm receives:

Jonathan Lucroy Tex - C,1B

Adam Jones Bal - OF

Jaime García Atl - P

Round 18

Round 18 (traded from Sexual Napalm)

Brokeback receives:

Austin Hedges SD - C

Koda Glover Was - P DL

Trevor Rosenthal StL - P

James Shields CWS - P DL

Round 12

Round 16

Strictly looking at the names, this is a nice bounty for Gibby for only 8 rounds. This is the second straight year Jones has been acquired at a discount after a slow start and he ended 2016 with 86/29/83/2/.310, which is plenty useful. Right now, he’s slightly behind that pace (72/28/74/2/.293), but even with his well-noted OBP deficiencies and dearth of speed, I would’ve expected him to go for 6-8 rounds alone.

Lucroy is definitely off his game and is currently only on pace for 37/10/40/0/.304, but there’s enough track record to expect a nice bounceback in the second half as the weather heat up in Texas. Plus, there are very few good catching options this year and Hedges is a hit or miss guy in more than one way.

Garcia is a useful SP5-6 who is occasionally beaten to a pulp, occasionally unhittable, and often injured. Not a surprise people weren’t jumping all over him, but he’s a good piece to have and 8 QS isn’t nothing to sniff at.

All in all, Gibby gets much more than I think Watson could’ve if he waited a little longer for Jones and Lucroy to heat up. That said, can’t blame him for taking the picks before other teams drop out.

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Stroman receives:

Tommy Pham StL - OF

Round 19 (traded from Thor's Hammered)

Montezumas receives:

Kevin Kiermaier TB - OF DL

Round 23

Seemed like a good deal at the time…         

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Brokeback receives:

Martín Pérez Tex - P

Andrew Cashner Tex - P

Round 14

Anal receives:

Andrew Triggs Oak - P DL

Dan Straily Mia - P

Round 21

Straily is the key guy that will determine whether this was a worthwhile move for Justin.  Perez and Cashner are having decent seasons on the surface, but the peripheral stuff isn’t anything to write home about. Triggs is sort of in the same realm as his early season stats were glimmering compared to his underlying stats, but that started to correct shortly after this trade and then he went on the DL. Not sure he was worth acquiring anymore than Perez and Cash were worth owning. I would rank those three Triggs, Perez, Cashner, but all three have xFIPs over 4.50 and the latter two are walking 3+ per 9.

So it comes down to Straily for seven rounds and it may very well be a fair swap. There is no doubt Straily has been inconsistent, but he also has some really great games and massive K potential to go with his less than stellar command.  His xFIP is also above 4.50, but the 9 K/9 and improving peripherals make him worth acquiring as a back rotation guy. This is probably a couple more rounds than I’d consider calling a fair swap, but Triggs is intriguing enough to make up for that – even after his injury.

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Brokeback receives:

Manuel Margot SD - OF DL

Chris Tillman Bal - P

Round 11

Round 18

Napalm receives:

Lance Lynn StL - P

Steven Souza Jr. TB - OF

Round 23

Round 24

Of the players remaining on Watson’s roster, these two had the most upside and Gibby paid for that with 18 total rounds. Lynn is a guy who is easy to like but hard to love because his long-documented command issues. He is a career 8.7/3.3 K/BB per 9 guy and his stats through 2017 have carried that forward.  The sub-3.00 ERA is not something to expect going forward, but a 3.50 is perfectly reasonable and useful.  The excellent numbers so far are very much aided by a .207 BABIP (.301 lifetime), so Gibby is acquiring a reversion to the mean, which means some painful starts eventually. His bad starts are relatively easy to sniff out though as his worst games this season have come against good offenses. But he’s got solid SP4 written all over him.

Souza is on pace for 73/27/93/4/.364, which would represent outstanding value. The question is whether he can continue at that pace. The numbers are roughly consistent with his career 162-game average, except he’s never come close to 162 games.  I think it’s an overshoot in the OBP department by a fairly large margin since he’s currently walking at an astounding 14.1% clip, which is 4.2 points higher than his career average.  He’s only 28 and has dealt with injuries and playing time issues in the past, so it’s not impossible for a once-fairly lauded prospect to finally come into his own, but that’s just a really big jump in walk rate.  Even so, a 70/25/90/5/.340 bat is plenty useful.

Seems to me this is a pretty fair return given the production this season, but I believe it is far more likely that Gibby will ultimately not gain the full value he paid than it is that Watson will regret not waiting out for more.

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Brokeback receives:

Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD - P

Round 11

Montezumas receives:

Sean Manaea Oak - P

Round 22

There’s an awful lot to like about Sean Manaea. Perhaps the stat that stands out most is that among the pitchers with more than 60 IP, only Chris Sale and Max Scherzer have a higher SwStr% (swinging strike percentage) at 15.1% -- all while inducing far more groundballs than those two veteran studs (38% vs 47%).  The SwStr% is nothing to sniff at when you consider the goal of pitching is to get batters to miss your pitches.  With that comes nearly 10 Ks per 9, along with ample pedigree and  a great pitchers park to call home. However, there’s plenty to be concerned with as well, not least of which is the 3.5 BB/9, .240 BABIP, youth, and past injury problems.  It also required me to give up my highest tradeable pick, a pretty significant asset. But if you're fishing for upside in a seller's market, you need to be ready to pay up.

If he improves his control, which he appears to have done in his last five games -- 7 total walks against some excellent opponents (@TB, TOR, @CLE, @NYY, BOS -- this is a potential keeper SP in the future, if not next season. And if the control issues subside, he could be worthy of much more than 11 rounds. That said, Watson got top dollar for a very big IF.

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Cowhide receives:

Alex Wilson Det - P

Alex Cobb TB - P

Round 22

Moose receives:

Adrián González LAD - 1B DL

Ricky Nolasco LAA - P

Round 11

Alex Wilson doesn’t move the needle much for me. Given his relative success this year, a deal of Wilson for Nolasco would’ve made fine sense.  Since AGone has been long gone for the past year, let’s just focus on Cobb for 11 rounds and whether that is fair.

TJS affects every arm a little differently and the recovery isn’t always smooth. For Cobb, there is nothing beneath his numbers that indicate he is anything more than what he has produced – which is something less than what he once was.  What he once was was a guy who kept the ball on the ground and in the park, who had potential for 8-10 Ks, and made for a nice SP3 type with very rare blow ups.  Over 200 IP, you could reasonably expect 170 ks and a 3.50/1.20, which is very good – not great, but very good and well worth 11 rounds given the options available.  This version, though, lets up a lot more fly balls, is not striking out many guys, and is giving up a lot more hard contact.  The SwStr% of 7.4% is poor and well below his career average of 8.9%.  

So, when you consider that he is:  something less than what he once was,  on pace for 195 innings (his career high is 171 across levels), and already had a track record of being injured, I think Dave paid what he needed to pay to get a name like this, but the name isn’t the player he once was and looks unlikely to return value consistent with 11 rounds.

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Keep off Groin receives:

Trevor Bauer Cle - P

Hershiser receives:

Justin Smoak Tor - 1B

I love these types of challenge trades, especially when they involve two players with ample pedigree who never quite lived up to the hype and can be considered a disappointment at this point in their careers. So far, Justin is winning this hands down as Bauer’s production (22k in 17 ip 4.58/1.70) pales in comparison to Smoak (6 hr, .377 obp in 48 abs).  For the season, Smoak is on pace for 92/46/110/0/.359, which is amazing and essentially he is Edwin Encarnacion if he can do that, making him not only a great acquisition but also a great keeper.  

Bauer is on pace for 215 Ks in 180 innings, which is incredible, but the 5.81/1.49 is a bit misleading.  His xFIP is actually 3.47 and the .349 BABIP (.297 career) and 20.7% HR/FB indicates the ball hasn’t exactly bounced his way this season. He’s made great gains on keeping the ball on the ground the past two seasons. The walks are just something that come and go. He had a four game stretch recently where he struck out 36 in 25 innings and only walked 4. Then he went to COL and walked 5 in three innings. So, you gotta expect volatility and realize his tinkering often keeps him from finishing the sixth inning, but there is enough good improvement going on behind the scenes to believe he can K 220 and keep his rates in the 3.80-4.20 and 1.30-1.40 range, which is actually just as valuable as a power-hitting first basemen this season. 

So while you may have written off this trade already based on Smoak’s hot streak, I’d encourage you to revisit in a month or so. It could be closer than you think.

Week 9 & 10 Real Rankings

Apologies for missing a week. There's been a lot of changes in the real rankings and the actual standings There have been some massive hitting and pitching performances in the past couple weeks, including 19 HR by LOC in week 9, 21 HR by Ring in week 10, a 1.76/0.96 in week 10 and a 1.91/0.92 in week 9 by Donkey, and a mind-boggling 13 SBs by Angry in week 9.  The power output and injuries have been a huge story this year.

Another interesting story has been the evolution of the 1B position, which was supposed to be a declining position.  But not with afterthoughts like Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Reynolds, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, Justin Bour, Marwin Gonzalez, and Travis Shaw all among the top 75 overall players.  Factor in young guns Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger and you suddenly have a very deep position.

But from a H&T perspective, the big story is that Ring of Fire – the top ranked team according to Real Rankings – is currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, while the Angry Pirates – the 11^th placed team in the Real Rankings – sits only 1.5 games out of first. It’s hard to look at the data and say it’s anything other than plain dumb luck.  Over the last five weeks, the Pirates are DEAD LAST in Real Rankings, yet they own a 28-19-3 record.  Meanwhile, Ring has the 4^TH HIGHEST Real Ranking over the last 5, but owns a mirror image 19-27-4 record.  This is exactly why so many leagues use Rotisserie style scoring. That said, as I’ve mentioned, most of the time these things work out in terms of overall rankings.

We are roughly at the halfway point of the regular season, so there is still a lot of time for your luck to reverse course (for good and for bad), particularly when you consider the number of injuries.  Currently, 13 keepers are on the DL (or suspended, in the case of Marte), which is 16%! That includes multiple keepers for Montezumas (Villar, Joc, Trout), Napalm (Duffy, Freeman), and Keep off Groin (Marte, Segura).

Unlike past years, it’s hard to call one or two teams dominant.  Anal isn’t far away, with particular domination in the tricky SB and S+H categories, but the back-end behind Darvish and Archer is too temperamental to be considered intimidating.  Aaron Sanchez is on the mend and if guys like Smoak, Conforto, Avisail, and Inciarte maintain their pace, there is plenty to worry about for other opponents.

The only team that has effectively sold is Brokeback and we’re already in mid June.  After making a couple trades, Moose must be encouraged by the 13-7 record the past two weeks, while fellow bottom-dwellers One Nut and Stroman aren’t keen to give up too quickly. The open trading period is still quite a ways away though (July 30^th – Aug 13^th).

Speaking of Conforto, there are an usual amount of odd names in the latest top 25 overall.  Never would’ve guessed the list would include names like Judge, Lamb, Zimmerman, Reynolds, Conforto, Hicks, Ervin, Thames…:

Top 25 by Yahoo

1              Paul Goldschmidt Ari - 1B             Ring of Fire

2              Aaron Judge NYY - OF                    Moose is Loose!

3              Joey Votto Cin - 1B                          Ring of Fire

4              Charlie Blackmon Col - OF             Stroman my Cobb Odor

5              Max Scherzer Was - P                    Montezuma's Revenge

6              Bryce Harper Was - OF                   Thor's Hammered

7              Mike Trout LAA - OF                       Montezuma's Revenge

8              Clayton Kershaw LAD - P               Brokeback Moundmen

9              Jake Lamb Ari - 3B                            Thor's Hammered

10           Ryan Zimmerman Was - 1B          Livin' on a Correa

11           Mark Reynolds Col - 1B                  Thor's Hammered

12           Chris Sale Bos - P                              The Angry Pirates

13           Dallas Keuchel Hou - P                   Donkey Punchers

14           Craig Kimbrel Bos - P                       Anal Hershiser

15           Michael Conforto NYM - OF        Anal Hershiser

16           Aaron Hicks NYY - OF                      Cowhide Joyride

17           Eric Thames Mil - 1B,OF                 Donkey Punchers

18           Andrew Miller Cle - P                     Donkey Punchers

19           Ervin Santana Min - P                     Thor's Hammered

20           Miguel Sanó Min - 3B,OF              Montezuma's Revenge

21           Anthony Rizzo ChC - 1B                 Brokeback Moundmen

22           George Springer Hou - OF            Anal Hershiser

23           José Altuve Hou - 2B                       Cowhide Joyride

24           Felipe Rivero Pit - P                         Thor's Hammered

25           Nolan Arenado Col - 3B                 Anal Hershiser

Last but not least, the Real Rankings over the last four weeks have show just how volatile and unpredictable this season has been:

1             Donkey Punchers            4.83

2             Anal Hershiser                5.20

3             Montezuma's                   5.73

4             Thor's Hammered            6.48

5             Ring of Fire                     6.53

6             Livin' on a Correa            6.83

7             Sexual Napalm                7.35

8             Cowhide Joyride              7.40

9             Keep Off Groin                7.85

10           Moose is Loose!               7.90

11           Brokeback                        7.95

12           One Nut Wonders             8.03

13           The Angry Pirates            8.45

14           Stroman my Cobb            8.48

Also, please pay if you haven’t (which includes all of you except Chad and Chris Shannon).