7th
Best: SP Jacob DeGrom NYM, Thor (Shomphe) – Not sure
who Brian actually wanted to pick, but it was clear to me and a lot of others
than DeGrom was in a class of his own for this draft, so Shomphe starts the
season with what essentially amounts to a seventh keeper. The guy just deals
when healthy, and he’s seems like a shoe in for a big big season.
Runner-Up: OF Ian Desmond
COL, Donkey (Shannon) – While I liked Gibby’s pick of Dee Gordon, there were
only a handful of people for which this would represent a great move. One of them was Mr. Shannon, whose bounty of
picks gave him more than enough leverage to spend some on an injured player who
could be a top-25 player by the end of April. I still expect him to approach 80/25/80/25/.330.
Worst: OF David Dahl COL,
One Nut (Jason) – I like Dahl as a prospect, but didn’t agree with him as a keeper
and liked him even less once he got injured. The lure of Colorado is certainly
considerable, but the output wasn’t actually all that impressive last year and
he only walked 6.3% of the time. Youth risk was too big to dedicate this high
of a pick to and adding injury risk to it was ill-advised.
Runner-Up: OF Stephen
Piscotty STL, Angry (Kyle) – So, I like Piscotty fine, but there is a group of
10-12 other players I’d want with the sixth overall pick, including fellow OFs
Adam Jones and Matt Kemp (who Kyle ended up with in the 8th).
Piscotty’s slightly better walk rate (7.9% vs. 5.4–5.8%) doesn’t make up for
the long power track records of the other two. Most of all, his numbers were worse
than JBJ, who has the same one-year track record. Nit-picking a bit, but was
just a surprise this early.
X-Factor: SP Zack Grienke ARI, Napalm (Gibby) – I had
him queued up too, but I thank Gibby for not making me pull the trigger at #17.
Velocity is still a concern, so is the home ballpark and general makeup. He’s
talented that’s for sure, but the K rate was never amazing and the correlation
of rate declines with reduced velocity creates the highest risk/reward.
-----------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
8th
Best: 2B Dustin Pedroia BOS, Moose (Brian/Sawyer) –
In the midst of the SP rush, one of the top available players lasted to the
last pick of the round. It’s the second straight year of a thoroughly
unwarranted drop in the draft. What about a 105/15/74/7/.376 line don’t you
like? He’s going to be atop the best lineup in baseball and really has zero
concerns at this point. The Beltre/Pedy combo may not be sexy, hell it may not
even have been intentional, but it is solid.
Runner-up: 3B Jake Lamb ARI,
Thor (Shomphe) – While I like Dan’s Turner pick just fine, this was the 3B I
wanted most. Yes, there’s a second half decline to consider and yes there’s the
troubles against LHPs. But if there weren’t those things, he’d be a keeper – 26
yo, 10.8 BB%, .260 ISO, and 39.4% HardHit%. Sign me up.
Worst: SP Drew Smyly SEA, KOG (Dan) – His name sort of sticks out like a sore thumb in this round because of how horrendous he was after the first month or so last year. Getting QS in 43% of starts is not good and there aren’t many underlying numbers suggesting improvement. He’s 28 and still in the AL, so it’s hard to expect much better than an ERA of 4.00. You want more out of at this point. And though we didn’t know he was injured at the time, he’s got a pretty long resume of arm issues.
Runner-up: SP David Price BOS, One Nut (Jason) – I can’t
say how long he would’ve lasted, but given the quality available, I expect
another round or so. A clean MRI is great, but the issues continue to linger
and a healthy elbow is rather important. The fact that he hasn’t thrown off a
mound yet puts his ETA out to around mid-May or so. Given the possibility of a
permanent trip to the DL and the un-Price-like production last year, I would’ve
waited.
X-Factor: 1B Greg Bird NYY,
LOC (Chad) – Love the ballsiness of Chad’s first pick in the league. The best
part of upside is when the downside isn’t so bad, and there is a lot to like
here – not least of which is a long minor league track record of 10%+ walk
rates, health, buttloads of power, and a short porch in right field. That said,
it’s a big investment for someone with a dreadful draftboard.
-----------------------------------------------------
9th
Best: SP James Paxton SEA, Angry (Kyle) – There’s
been great underlying stats for a while, but it hasn’t quite translated to
prolonged periods of success until the second half of last year. There was one
pitcher available that sported a K rate of at least 22% and a BB rate below 5%,
and that was big ol’ Pax. He was the first SP I had in the third tier and the
only one I could see potentially jumping to the first this year.
Runner-Up: OF Adam Eaton WAS, Brokeback (Matt) – This draft lacked sexy upside hitters and no one is less sexy than Eaton, but the bottom line is he does a little bit of everything, produced eerily similar numbers the past two years, and will be at the top of a great WAS lineup. Sometimes the best value is subtle, but impactful.
Worst: SP Carlos Rodon CWS, Stroman (Jeff) – Jeff and his binkies (sigh). Like Price, this was a guy I was interested in seeing drop. You never want one of your highest SPs starting the season on the DL and you really don’t want it to be a youngin with shoulder/bicep issues. He may be fine, but too much risk at this point.
Runner-up: C Yasmani Grandal LAD, Montezumas (Adam) – Taking a shot at myself here because I tend to wait pretty long at catcher and couldn’t resist, despite my lackluster draftboard. For all the power he displayed and patience he has (14.0 BB%), he scored 49 runs and obviously doesn’t steal. Since being a catcher limits his ABs, it also limits his RBI potential. There were just greater needs and decent option much much later.
X-Factor: 2B Yoan Moncada CHW, One Nut (Jason) – I was going to make him the worst pick, which, as you’ll see, would’ve given Jason the worst pick in the first four rounds, but I paused because I can’t say I didn’t consider the Yoanster. The potential is just oozing in delightful Troutiness, but there’s so many Buxton parallels that it’s hard to be impressed with anything you’ve seen so far. It’s a monster gamble, but that’s what Jason does.
-----------------------------------------------------
10th
Best: OF Odubel Herrera PHI, Cowhide (Dave) – Odubel made quite the splash last year and proved to be quite valuable throughout the year. Now he’s settled in at the 3rd spot in the order at the age of 25, with a line that looks pretty similar to Eaton with cross-category production. The only thing that separates them is a track record, and that may be on the way.
Runner-up: OF Marcell Ozuna MIA, LOC (Chad) – While we’ve likely seen the ceiling of Odubel, we’re still waiting on Ozuna. Last year was good contribution to three categories, but he has potential to be very good in four once it all comes together. This will be a key year and could be the last time he’s available to draft. He’ll hit 40 dingers one of these years.
Worst: SP Julio Urias LAD, One Nut (Jason) – Yes, the stuff is tantalizing, and if the innings cap is 180, it may very well be worth it. But we saw a high walk rate, bad WHIP, and an inability to get through the lineup a second time. Yes yes he is just 20 yo, which is fine. However, if you’ve dedicated your top two picks to injured players and your next two picks to minor leaguers, the risk is astronomical. Not the quintessential upside (big veteran names with track records) that Jason is typically after at this point in the draft.
Runner-Up: SP Jake Odorizzi TB, Ring (Dagan) – This was a pretty good round, so this criticism should be taken with a grain of salt, but he was the worst player I had ranked here. He has a problem getting to the sixth (51.5 QS%),had a 4.44 xFIP, and doesn’t have the best K/BB. Not bad, just not up to the rest of the round.
X-Factor: TIE 2B Jason Kipnis CLE, Anal (Justin) and 3B Maikel Franco PHI, Brokeback (Watson) – I like both of these guys but couldn’t figure out if I liked Kipnis’ injury risk or Franco’s youth risk less. As I noted in the offseason, Kipnis has a history of cross-category production. But shoulders can sap power quick and we’ve seen single-digit HR output when Kipnis isn’t healthy, so that worries me. Franco, meanwhile, isn’t great at taking pitches and the .172 ISO is pretty paltry for a guy who hit 25 HR. But he’s also 24 and that makes the upside equally as exciting as Kipnis broad potential contributions.
-----------------------------------------------------
11th
Best: SP Sean Manaea OAK, Brokeback (Watson) – I always find the ideal time to pounce on a young SP is the year after he logged significant innings, made improvements during the year, and ended with a mediocre stat line. Manaea fits the bill to a tee because his numbers are just unimpressive enough to not jump off the page and mask the poor start. He’s got three good pitches (11.8 SwStr%), good control (2.3 BB/9), plenty of pedigree, and a great pitcher’s park. That’s a recipe for success.
Runner-up: SP Robbie Ray ARI, Donkey (Shannon) – People like Ray can be difficult to roster because you like the Ks, but the rates ultimately kill you. That’s why Ray made it off and on so many rosters last year. Well, this isn’t Daniel Cabrera. Ray was legitimately, illogically unlucky last year. His near 5.00 ERA was garnered with a 3.45 xFIP, suggesting his defense was quite awful, while his .352 BABIP shows he was extremely unlucky on the balls that were hit in play. But his K rate was 28.1%! I’m not sure the D will be much better, but this is definitely worth a shot.
Worst: 2B Javier Baez CHC, Anal (Justin) – One of the best kept secrets in baseball is that Javier Baez isn’t that good. Really,find me something he excels at and I’ll take it back… Still looking? We’re 750 plate appearances into his career and his 162-game average is 58/18/61/13/.289. Yes, he’s only 24. He also doesn’t have a full-time job and has as many walks as he does doubles in his career. Overhyped and overdrafted.
Runner-Up: RP Kenley Jansen LAD, Donkey (Shannon) – You knew this was coming. Too early,even if you’re already half way through your draft. Chapman went 30 picks later.
X-Factor: 1B/OF Eric Thames MIL, Donkey (Shannon) – I’m not sure anyone has ever had the best pick, worst pick, and X factor in one round. Congratulations, Chris! There’s just no way of knowing what we’re going to see from Thames, but projection systems show potential for a 80/25/80/15/.330 bat, which is immensely valuable here. However, there’s a reason he was castoff to Korea. A bad spring has tempered the buzz, but it’s also not uncommon for players to need to adjust to the American fastball after teeing off on Asian junkballers for five years.
-----------------------------------------------------
12th
Best pick: OF Dexter Fowler STL, Ring (Dagan) – As was the case with Odubel, Kipnis, and Eaton, there is just nothing that pops when you look at Fowler, but the dude is money in OBP leagues. His OBP has ranged from .346-.393 every season, which goes with a 162-game average of 95/12/52/19. He’s not going to stand out in the box scores, but that stability can be the difference between a win and a loss any given week.
Runner-Up: 1B/OF Kendrys Morales TOR, Montezumas (me) – Usually when you see a guy slug 30 HR and 93 RBI, you expect there to be a little bit more contribution than 65 runs and .327 obp, but it’s still a very helpful output from a full time DH still sporting dual 1B/OF eligibility for some reason. The key here though is going from a park that suppresses power to one that enhances it. With OBP monsters Donaldson and Bautista batting in front of him, there’s a legit shot at 120 RBI.
Worst: 1B Adrian Gonzalez LAD, Angry (Dan) – I know this seems like a fine spot to pick someone who was a perennial 90/30/100/.380 guy, but that’s just not who he is. Believe me, I kept looking for some redeeming value in his underlying stats last year, but there’s just nothing. His walk rate has tumbled to 8.7% and his ISO was .150 (think Melky). It’s the beginning of the end and I don’t see much improvement likely at 35.
Runner-Up: SP Steven Matz NYM, Donkey (Shannon) – Yes, I like him too, but this guy has really earned that injury prone label. For Chris, it’s a back-rotation starter, so no biggy, but there was still some more reliable talent available at this point. Hopefully Matz makes it to the mound this year because he can be awfully good.
X-Factor: SP Garrett Richards LAA, Moose (Brian/Sawyer) – Remember when I traded Kyle like 15 rounds last year and then they announced the UCL tear the next day?... that was aweseome… Anyway, this is about where I was assuming he’d be taken. Clearly, Richards would have taken five rounds earlier if he were healthy, so the upside is ample. But this is a new type of treatment that could fail miserably. That said, early signs look positive. Humongous risk/reward.
-----------------------------------------------------
13th
Best: OF Kole Calhoun LAA, Thor (Shomphe) – At this point in the draft, I had to look at the news to see if I had missed something on Calhoun, like an injury or something. Nope, nothing but a surprising decline. These happen, especially with the non-flashy guys, but the non-flashy guys outproduce the flashy young guy 75% of the time. He walked more last year, got his OBP to .348 and has averaged 158 games 85/22/79/3 the past two years. Great value.
Runner-Up: 3B Nick Castellanos DET, Stroman (Jeff) – Very few young players come into the league and take it by storm a la Trout or Gary Sanchez. Most take an slower path with gradual improvements each year and that’s what you’ve seen from Castellanos, who was on his way to a good season before an injury. He’s only 25, so expect even more improvement.
Worst: RP Aroldis Chapman NYY, KOG (Dan) – I know it sounds like I am just stuck in my ways, but there is mathematical logic to waiting. Know what the difference between Chapman and Alex Colome was last year? Colome had -1.1 ip, +2 S+H, -19 K (about 1 per week), -0.36 ERA, -0.16 WHIP. He went 5 rounds later (and that was still early!).
Runner-Up: OF Max Kepler MIN, KOG (Dan) – I didn’t know where to rank Kepler this year. I owned him during his hot streak and it was fabulous, but the overall numbers were just OK, which means he was pretty cold most of the season. He’s just 24 and walks 9.4% of the time, but I just thought this was early. The two guys I had ranked just after him (Rajai and BMoss) were undrafted
X-Factor: OF Michael Brantley CLE, One Nut (Jason) – I should do a study on how often owners show up in the X-Factor slot. However, it would be a lot of work to find an answer I already know. This is a huge gamble at a point in the draft when someone like Shin-Soo Choo or Matt Holliday would provide a nice, stable OBP veteran. I had Brantley and Calhoun separated by 32 spots and they went right after the other.
-----------------------------------------------------
14th
Best: 1B Mike Napoli TEX, Montezumas (me) – I know I made a big deal about drafting a 35-year-old during the draft, but I see no reason for this drop. His catcher days limited at bats for most of his early days and health issues in 2014-15 (2013 was his first as full-time 1B) have skewed his production on a per-game basis. Last year was the first year in his career his surpassed 500 abs! That line was spectacular and if you look at his 162-game average, you get a 81/30/87/5/.352 line for his career. He’ll DH and play 1B in an even better hitting environment this year and he’s not old enough to assume a drastic decline from the 92/34/101/5/.335 he posted last year. Steal of the draft.
Runner-Up: SP Drew Pomeranz BOS, Donkey (Shannon) – With pitchers flying off the board and from all over the place in terms of my rankings, Shannon found a rare dropper. This is likely because of the injury issues in ST, but they appear to be a non-issue. He flamed out after a hot start, but there’s a lot to like about his repertoire, pedigree, and IP gains last year. He was a bit lucky with the rates, but that 26.5 K% isn’t luck.
Worst: Britton, Miller, Diaz Melancon, Betances, blah blah blah – You know the drill. I’ll stop now.
Runner-Up: SP Sonny Gray OAK, One Nut (Jason) – Few have benefited more from their home park and high MLB draft status than Gray in terms of fantasy value. The truth is, he’s hasn’t been anything special since his first stint in 2013. A career 7.6/2.9 K/BB per nine with a 3.61 xFIP is indicative of a mid-rotation guy, not the stud he was once billed to be. The lat injury to start the season just makes him even less appealing.
X-Factor: 3B Ryon Healy OAK, Cowhide (Dave) – I would’ve probably considered Healy a best pick if it wasn’t so early and if it wasn’t only Dave’s third pick in the draft. There’s a lot to like with 13 HR in 269 abs last year, but the .337 OBP masks a high BABIP and 4.2 BB%. He also was a sort of fringy prospect. The upside is there, but the downside is big for someone representing the 9th best player on a roster.
-----------------------------------------------------
15th
Best: SS Marcus Semien OAK, Brokeback (Watson) – I don’t get it. Other than Diaz, Semien was the top SS available. I mean 72/27/75/10 is a pretty epic line for a 26-year-old SS in a big stadium. His .300 OBP isn’t great, but with a 8.2 BB% and a .268 BABIP indicating significant bad luck, that could jump 30 points with no changes or improvement. I could easily see a 90/30/90/15/.330 line coming, which makes him a keeper.
Runner-Up: OF Shin Soo Choo TEX, Cowhide (Dave) – Even in another injury-riddled season, Choo produced at a 20/20 pace to go with that ever-sparkling OBP. Given his current health and ability/likelihood of DHing this year, this is a fantastic move. The number of players who generated a .400 OBP last year fit on one slightly deformed hand. Choo is capable of that and much more.
Worst: KHerrera, SOh - Sorry, just one more. There just weren’t many bad picks.
Runner-Up: SP Mike Foltynewicz ATL, Cowhide (Dave) – I don’t have an issue with Folty here and this is more of reflection of a pretty good round for picking SP5-7s. Except this is Dave’s SP3. That worries me a bit because the upside is not high enough to outweigh the risk of relying on him – as opposed to taking a flyer on him. The 2016 numbers don’t mask much, so we’re looking at a 40 QS% guy with a 4.00/1.30 and 8/3 K/BB per 9. Not bad, but just not good enough.
X-Factor: OF Carlos Gomez TEX, Napalm (Gibby) – Put it this way, in HOU, Gomez’s pace over 550 abs was 46/9/49/22/.272. In TEX, Gomez’s pace over 550 abs was 85/38/114/24/.362. I imagine 2017 will be somewhere in between, but to know he is capable of either makes him the epitome of an X factor.
-----------------------------------------------------
16th
Best: 1B Victor Martinez DET, Ring (Dagan) – I get the inclination to look past someone like VMart at this point. You see SPs flying off the board and you think your queue is going to suddenly be empty by the time the next pick comes around. But these are the moments to stop and consider the value of this high of a pick and the relative ease of acquiring a decent SP before the playoffs come around. Getting a run-producing cog with good on base skills in the UTIL slot is not so easy. Dagan took advantage of that inclination.
Runner-Up: 3B Mike Moustakas KC, Montezumas (me) – I knew I wanted a 3B going into the draft so I could move Sano to OF if necessary, but I refrained because the third tier is so deep. Beltre, Turner, Castellanos, Healy, Lamb, Franco, JoRam, Drury, Nunez, Reyes – all have some appeal, but I really hoped Mous would fall to me. He’s made some key advances in hardhit rate, patience, and power over the years that – teaming with the need for his first big season before he hit free agency next year – gives me hope that he could be a monster.
Worst: OF Jacoby Ellsbury NYY, Brokeback (Watson) – Remember when he went all 119/32/105/39/.376 on our ass in 2011? Me either. Made me double take, honestly. He’s only hit double digit HRs in one other year and has stalled at 20 sbs the last two, while his OBP has hovered in the .310-330 realm. Might as well have taken Rajai, who incidentally wasn’t drafted.
Runner-Up: SP Tyler Glasnow PIT, Donkey (Shannon) – Obviously no one is going to say they don’t like Glasnow, and certainly not in the NA spot at the end of your draft. But I also wasn’t planning on taking him at all this year. The walk rate has been hefty every step of the way throughout the minor and into his cup o’ coffee last year. Guys like that don’t come up an dominate, but it’s necessary to have an effective NA in Yahoo. He’ll get there, just not this year.
X-Factor: OF Yasiel Puig LAD, Anal (Justin) – I kept looking at him and just saying “nah” so I’m glad someone had the nuts to go for it. If he had a truly great season under his belt and not just a lot of scout talk, it would be one thing. But we’re just looking at a bunch of tools right now. Putting the damn thing together is a whole different can of worms.
-----------------------------------------------------
17th
Best: OF Kevin Kiermaier TB, LOC (Chad) – Everyone talks about the D, but nobody gives him credit for his O face. KK’s injury-affected 2016 rates project to a 83/18/56/32/.331 season. At the age of 27 with a 9.7 BBB%, low BABIP, and spot atop of the batting order, we could be talking about a perennial keeper after this year. Straighten out his luck and give him a full season at leadoff and he might’ve been 100/20/60/40/.350. That’s the type of player he can be. A steal here (pun definitely intended).
Runner-Up: 3B Eduardo Nunez SF, Montezumas (me) – No one expects him to be the guy he was in MIN last year because he simply never has been that guy at any other point in his career, but he’s always been a good basestealer. He’s got a full-time gig in a decent lineup, but the 3B/SS eligibility is the real appeal here. As having a flexible UTIL guy is very valuable.
Worst: SP Mike Leake STL, Cowhide (Dave) – His rates from 2016 (4.69/1.32) don’t represent the player he is, but they do represent the player he should’ve been drafted as. He’s got a great track record of QS outperformance, but he’s someone you’d prefer to get in rounds 20+ -- especially with a bunch of upside guys being drafted all around him.
Runner-Up: OF Tyler Naquin CLE, Stroman (Jeff) – Yes his 2016 numbers were awesome for 321 abs, but it also shows why it is important to at least glance at BABIP. When you don’t have blazing speed and you produce a .411 BABIP, it guarantees you’re one-way ticket back to Earth very soon. That was the highest rate in the league. A 31% K rate and 14.2 SwStr% is even further reason to expect regression. He did walk nearly 10% of the time and has an excellent hard hit rate, so it’s not all bad, but if he struggles against lefties (only 4 XBH in 32 abs last year) out of the gate, you might be looking at a full platoon situation – further watering down projections.
X-Factor: SP Lance Lynn STL, Brokeback (Watson) – The best type of TJS comeback story is the one where the player had some success the year prior. Lynn got some minor league action in at the end of last year and has looked good in camp. If he comes back as the SP he was (3.40/1.30, 180 Ks) this is a heck of find here.
-----------------------------------------------------
18th
Best: OF Mitch Haniger SEA, LOC (Chad) – Like Bird, this is another spring story I can get behind. If you’re going to bet on a rookie, make sure he know how to take a pitch. Haniger’s walk rate was 12.6% in the minors last year to go along with a sub-20% K rate, all of which are consistent with his other minor league seasons. He wasn’t up with ARI for long, but those rates more or less carried over to the bigs. There’s 25/15 upside here and if he can get you an OBP of .320, that’s a solid contributor and potentially a long-time anchor bat.
Runner-Up: OF Jay Bruce NYM, Napalm (Gibby) – He’s maddeningly streaky, but there’s still 30 HR and 100 RBI in that bat. He could even get 1B eligibility at some point. Sure his .300 OBP sucks, but if you pick your spots on where to start him, he’ll be well worth a pick here.
Worst: OF Hunter Renfroe SD, Moose (Brian/Sawyer) – I’m glad he and Haniger were taken in the same round because it accentuates my point about on-base skills. It’s not only important for the OBP bottom line, it’s important for the big league club. It does no team any good to have a prospect come up and strike out 30% of the time and get on base less than 30% of the time. I am quite confident this is where we heading with Renfroe, who walked 2.8% in his 11-game stint last year and 3.9% of the time in 133 games in the minors. Yes, yes, immense power. Ryan Howard also had immense power last year, yet he was never on a roster because no one could stomach a .260 OBP. This is a story that ends on the waiver wire.
Runner-Up: 3B Pablo Sandoval BOS, Cowhide (Dave) – I’m fine with Panda! Worth a shot on someone’s roster, for sure. Just could’ve had him later.
X-Factor: OF Jason Heyward CHC, Cowhide (Dave) – Jeez that 93/27/82/21//.335 age-23 season feels like a lifetime ago. He can get back to respectability and has the on-base skills to help you ignore last year’s super flop, but that was like a super duper flop. 61/7/49/11/.266 in 142 games? Shit… I just vomited on my keyboard a little.
-----------------------------------------------------
19th
Best: SP Tyler Skaggs LAA, Ring (Dagan) – It’s easy to forget Skaggs was a once much-ballyhooed prospect at one point. There’s not much underlying last year’s numbers that make the actual performance look any different. He still walks a lot of guys, but the stuff is great and he’s got the pedigree and performance when healthy to project him to emerge heading into his age-25 season.
Runner-Up: OF Carlos Beltran HOU, Stroman (Jeff) – I know he’s older than dirt, but the guy still contributes to four categories and is heading to a nice situation in a great lineup. He’ll fall off at some point, but this is a good spot to bet it won’t be this year.
Worst: SP Tyson Ross TEX, Napalm (Gibby) – As much as I like him, it’s just not a bet I would be taking. Not a great park for him and a tough injury to bounce back from.
Runner-up: 1B Cody Bellinger LAD, LOC (Chad) – It pains me to write this because I like Bellinger so much, but the bottom line is this was Chad’s eighth pick in the draft. He still had a lot of roster to fill out and there were some potentially valuable guys going in the next round like Guerra, Chen, Severino, Miller, and Wheeler. Bellinger may find a place in the OF at some point, but there’s a lot of guys ahead of him who will eventually heal up and want a role.
X-Factor: SP Charlie Morton HOU, LOC (Chad) – Two measures I value greatly in an SP is groundball percentage and strikeout percentage. In four starts last year, Morton was as 63 GB% and 27 K%. Granted, it was four starts, but it was enough for the Stros to hand him a big contract very early in free agency, which seemed odd at the time. But he’s been dealing in ST and seems to have added a couple MPHs on his already impressive fastball. Intriguing, but he’s also Charlie Morton and he’s had plenty of opportunity to display his overall mediocrity.
-----------------------------------------------------
20th
Best: SP Junior Guerra MIL, Angry (Kyle) – It’s natural to be skeptical about a 32 yo fresh out of the California penal league and is suddenly the opening day starter for a MLB team. But there he is, sporting a 2.81/1.13 with 100 ks in 121 ip and a 60 QS%. Now, the xFIP shows he’s more of a 4.00 era guy and the walk rate isn’t fantastic, but given what he had to get to the majors and the general consensus among scouts that his stuff is pretty darn good, it’s good spot to take a chance at a potential mid-rotation contributor.
Runner-Up: 2B Brandon Drury
ARI, Montezumas (me) – Considering he had a nice bit of buzz heading into the season, I expected Drury to be gone be this point, so I was happy to roster him
and his 2B/3B/OF eligibility. He was moved all over the place last season, but
is settled in as the everyday 2B this year. He’s got pop and a nice park, and
at 24, he could emerge as a strong regular rather than a useful bench guy.
Worst: RP Arodys Vizcaino ATL, Cowhide (Dave) – This one is a bit perplexing since there were a lot of other more valuable RPs out there (and there still are). A much-hyped arm, his control is sporadic, he’s not the closer, nor is he on particularly good team. Yeah, pass.
Runner-Up: RP Shawn Kelley WAS, Cowhide (Dave) – The fact that traditionalist Dusty Baker was even talking about giving the closer role to youngster Koda Glover should have clued us all in that Kelley wasn’t going to be the guy. Of course, Treinen is now and Kelley will have to compete with Glover for holds, so the fact that there was some role dispute and plenty of closers available made this selection a bit odd.
X-Factor: SP Shelby Miller ARI, Anal (Justin) – I’m not even going to attempt to find value in last year’s numbers. All I’ll say is that he was a top prospect and has shown signs of a solid SP3 in the past, so it’s not a bad chance to take this late in the draft. I have a feeling we’ll know quickly which Shelby shows up.
-----------------------------------------------------
21st
Best: SP Nathan Karns KC, Moose (Brian/Sawyer) – I liked him a lot last year but it, um, it didn’t go so hot. He dealt with an injury most of the year, but this guy still is very good at missing bats. He had a 24.2 K% and his 74.9% contact rate stands out against guys going around this time. KC is a similar pitching friendly environment. A little more like and a little more control and he could be an SP5 going in a SP8 area.
Runner-Up: 1B Tommy Joseph PHI, Napalm (Gibby) – I have a lot of questions about his ability to make regular contact, but he certainly hits it hard and in the air when he does. In a decent sample size last year, he looks like a guy with 70/30/80/0/.320 potential this year, which is plenty valuable right here.
Worst: RP Koda Glover WAS, Napalm (Gibby) – While retrospect shows this wasn’t the right pick because he wasn’t chosen as the closer, if I was going to pick a closer at this point, it would’ve been someone with a track record and clearly defined role who wasn’t coached by Dusty Baker.
Runner-up: RP David Robertson CHW, Cowhide (Dave) – It feels like I’m picking on Dave, but given his pick situation, this would’ve been a good year to build a bullpen after the draft and take a shot at more upside in the later rounds. Robertson is a mediocre closer on a team that may only win once or twice a week.
X-Factor: 3B Jose Reyes NYM, Cowhide (Dave) – I really like Reyes in this spot because the lineup he has around him and a very projectable 90/15/40/30/.330 line. He could flop and may end up dealing with David Wright once he is healthy….. BAHAHAHA… I JUST SAID David Wright healthy!!! HAHAHA. That’s a good one!…. ahhhh yeah… Anyway, the only risk is he’s 34 and suddenly gets slow.
-----------------------------------------------------
22nd
Best: RP Addison Reed NYM, LOC (Chad) – The list of RPs more valuable than Reed last year was limited to his teammate Jeurys “Should probably be nicer to his” Familia and Dellin Betances. His value goes up with the former’s pending suspension, but even if he wasn’t suspended, this was a savvy pick for a new owner.
Runner-Up: 2B Cesar Hernandez PHI, Brokeback (Watson) – There’s a lot to like about Cesar, who could stand to use regular at-bats in a top position in the order. His blend of speed (17 sbs) and on base skills (10.6 BB%) in his age-27 season provides a potentially valuable bench bat.
Worst: SP Andrew Cashner TEX, Anal (Justin) – Even if he was healthy, Cashner’s inability to miss bats (7.4 SwStr%) or get QSs (37%) or control his pitchers (10.2 BB%) make him thoroughly unappealing. The fact that he is going from a heavily pro-pitcher park to a heavily pro-hitter park makes his 1.3 HR/9 and 82.8% contact rate just seem like the perfect recipe for a big ol’ steamy shitburger.
Runner-Up: SP Robert Stephenson CIN, Napalm (Gibby) – While he was a well-though-of prospect not long ago, there’s not much to like about his big league performance so far. It’s only 37 ip, but his xFIP is 5.50 and has one of the smallest K-BB%s of any player drafted (7.1). That’s not good. Oh, and he doesn’t have a job either.
X-Factor: 3B Joey Gallo TEX, Thor (Shomphe) – I spent all of last season regretting picking him so early (and instead of Aaron Nola), only to have him spend another season in the minors. His prodigious power should get a real shot somewhere this season. With great on-base skills to boot, he could become quite valuable.
-----------------------------------------------------
23rd
Best: RP AJ Ramos MIA, One Nut (Jason) – There’s a crazy 1.47 xFIP/ERA discrepancy and a pretty poor walk rate for a closer, but the bottom line is Ramos gets saves and doesn’t let up HRs. His K rate is up there with the second tier of closers and stands to be part of a lot of close games on a decent MIA team.
Runner-up: RP Matt Bush TEX, KOG (Dan) – I like a mega-upside shot at a top 10 RP here. He could flop but the risk is minimal with this pick. His 25.8 K% and 5.8 BB%, high velocity, and 13.1 SwStr% are very closer like, so he could be a valuable cog in the TEX bullpen.
Worst: SS Willy Adames TB, Moose (Brian/Sawyer) – As far as prospects, he’s fine but he’s not a top-14 NA guy and lacks the upside of other minor leaguers taken. He should be a fine player, but the likelihood of him getting a full-time gig and succeeding are pretty small. Plus, Sawyer had a good draft, but it was very young in some key spots. He might need that NA spot soon.
Runner-Up: SPs James Shields, Wily Peralta, Clay Buchholz, and CC Sabathia, (meX2, Watson, Shomphe) – When you can’t get to the first start without dropping the guy, it’s never a good sign.
X-Factor: SP Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD, LOC (Chad) – There wasn’t a whole lot of redeeming value in this round, but Ryu could be the exception. Speaking as someone who drafted him the two prior years, only to have him never pitch for my team, this is a much better spot to draft a guy like this. He has SP4 upside, which would be ginormous value.
-----------------------------------------------------
24th
Best: 1B Lucas Duda NYM, Brokeback (Watson) – This smells a lot like Jason’s Trumbo pick last year. Duda can absolutely mash and get on base when he’s healthy. If he stays healthy (big IF), this guy can fill up four categories on a regular basis. Nice nab here.
Runner-Up: C Stephen Vogt OAK, Napalm (Gibby) – I didn’t like many catchers this year, but there’s no denying the value here. Vogt saw some bad luck (.275 BABIP) and still produced a respectable 54/14/56/.305 line. Some slight improvements makes him a top 6-8 backstop in our league.
Worst: SP Martin Perez TEX, Anal (Justin) – You know what I said about Stephenson’s tiny K-BB%, Perez’s 3.2 (14.2 K% - 8.9 BB%) was by far the worst of any pitcher with more than 150 IP. The fact that he converted 57.6% of his starts to a QS is a minor miracle because his 4.77 xFIP and 1.41 WHIP don’t translate.
Runner-up: UTIL Tyler Saladino CHW, LOC (Chad) – Just keeping the spot warm for Yoan. Guess he has some wheels, but yeah, blah.
X-Factor: SP Brett Anderson CHC, Montezumas (me) – Once upon a time Gibby was a new owner whose first move was to hand me 13 rounds in exchange for his ace keeper. Well, it hasn’t quite worked out for Gibby or Brett, but it’s mostly health driven because he’s actually been quite good the seasons he has stayed on the field.
