Updated 1/16/17
1(t). Urban Achievers (Dan Plourde) – At this moment, Dan has the most balanced combination of draftboard and keepers. That says a lot since, you know, his best player kinda died in the offseason. Excellent draft board with two picks in rounds 8, 9, and 10. Marte ranks high for broad category contribution, even if it seems to change from year to year. Cespedes, Polanco, Franco, and Gary Sanchez add to a solid group. Felix is hard to consider a keeper still, but I’m sure someone will take a shot.
1(t). Thor's Hammered (Chris Shomphe) – Having wavered between
going for it or not at the deadline, Chris lands in the top four in draft, but
only barely. His draftboard is only slightly above the baseline, which is a
tiebreaker for the top spot in my eyes. The keeper group is quite good with
Harper, Thor, Story, and Cutch. Mazara and Joc are talented youngsters, but
less of a sure thing. Crawford, Schoop, Gomez, Reyes, Tomas, Puig, Glasnow,
Gallo all could look like keepers if you squint hard enough, but each has some
warts.
3(t). One Nut Wonders (Jason Ouellette) – Despite his
propensity to deal, Jason’s is a solid draft situation with the only early
holes in the 9th and 11th. I expect this to improve
because his roster is littered with potential keepers. Desmond’s placement in
COL helped in the offseason, while Trumbo still is looking for a team but could
also gain a boost. Can’t list them all but he could deal eight players and maintain
the same keeper score. Jason will probably have the top spot here eventually.
3(t). Ring of Fire (Dagan Loisel) – Dagan’s team is highlighted
by a keeper group that is both solid and exciting. Carassco, Schwarber, and
Russell still have some work to do to become stars, but the talent is there –
to go with Votto, Goldy, and Bryant. After that, you could make arguments for
Pence, Semien, Duvall, Matz, Diaz, and Eaton. As is typical with Dagan, he held
onto most of his picks and his the draft board is predictably boring, finishing
just below the baseline.
3(t). Stroman my Cobb Odor (Jeff Frizzell) – Jeff has a
slightly above average draftboard and a good and large but potentially risky
group of keepers. While you know what you’re getting with Blackmon, Beltre and
Verlander are age risks, while guys like Lindor, Bregman, Dahl, Odor, JGray,
and Rodon are also age risks – just at the opposite end of the spectrum. Odubel,
Salazar, VMart, Choo, AGon, and Hendricks have promise but can’t be considered
stable. I can tell you six of those guys are going to be excellent – just which
ones that will be is more difficult.
6. Donkey Punchers (Chris Shannon) – Chris did his typical
masterful job of liquidating assets leading up to the trade deadline, giving
him arguably the best draft board thanks to two first rounders. That said, the
keepers may need some work. Hosmer, Seager, and Kershaw are great. Segura put
up keeper-worthy numbers, but is hard to trust fully. Baez has considerable
talent but is a wildcard. JUpton has enough of a track record to forgive the volatility.
Do you trust Brantley again? That group may be fine, but are not without some
risk.
7. Montezuma's Revenge (Adam Leech) – The Revenge are in a
similar situation to One Nut, but not as rich. The draft board isn’t horrible
with the first two picks secured, but holes in rounds 9-11 and 13 bring down
the score. There’s some currency to play with though. The group is headlined by
Rizzo, Miggy, Dozier and Scherzer. Villar is another surefire keeper, just
without a track record. Kluber and Price are easy keepers as well. Sano and
Ozuna are considerations thanks to their young power, while Swanson and Taillon
are being hyped.
8(t). Sexual Napalm (Mike Gibson) – It’s rather fitting that
Angry and Napalm are tied for 8th since they represent extreme
imbalances in opposite categories. Gibby is rather remarkably imbalanced with a
horrific draftboard with only 4 picks in the first 11 rounds. There’s a lot of
work to do, but there’s also a lot to work with. Betts, Machado, and Freeman
are elite, while Myers and Correa aren’t far away. Lester is unsexy but obvious
while Strasburg is sexy and risky. Contreras could be the top C with enough at
bats. Zobrist could even make some sense. Duffy clearly has potential too, as
well as Gibby binky Urias. I expect some movement here. (By the way, for all
the talk about imbalanced trades last year, take a gander at Gibby’s return for
Trea Turner last year and just imagine the vomit-inducing nightmares this must
cause the Gibster).
8(t). The Angry Pirates (Kyle Baker) – The other side of spectrum,
is Kyle. I like Turner, Pollock, and Xander, but I’d prefer them to be my #4-6.
Benintendi will be hyped, but is clearly a risk – both from a youth perspective
and a real life value-to-fantasy life value conversion perspective. Longo had a
great season, but that OBP is plummeting. Is this Buxton’s year? Not sure I’m
betting a keeper spot on it. At 23, he’s running out of excuses. That said, the
draftboard is great and incredibly unusual with only one pick in the first four
rounds, and then a remarkable 14 picks in rounds 11-14. Then he’s done
drafting. I expect that may change a bit.
10(t). Brokeback Moundmen (Matt Watson) – Unlike Kyle and Gibby,
Matt represents a balance of draft and keepers, with slightly sub-baseline
draftboard but no real holes until the 12-13. The group of potential keepers
includes the obvious like Trout and Cano and the notso obvious but still potentially
great like CMart, JD Martinez, Rendon, Gerrit Cole, and Harvey. It’s just hard
to tell which versions of those guys will show up in 2017. Watson could potentially upgrade there or
take his chances, but the top two are a nice start.
10(t). Anal Hersheiser (Justin Simons) – The notso new guy’s
description of last season’s debate with his co-owner is reflected in this
team. They could’ve made a serious playoff run with a few more pieces or they
could’ve made out like bandits by trading some of the fringe guys. Instead,
there’s a good-not-great group of keepers and a good-not-great draft board.
Arenado and Springer are top-of-the-line, but there’s question marks after. JBJ
may be fine, but regression could make him very Markakisish. DGordon, Lamb, BMiller,
JoRam, Fulmer all require a leap of faith on some level. Yu and DeGrom are
obviously talented keepers, but the injury concerns need to be considered.
12. Cowhide Joyride (Dave Fox) – Dave sold his soul for a
title run and it almost worked. But now he’s got some work to do with only two
picks in the first eight rounds. That said, it’s nice to start with guys like
Altuve, Stanton, and C. Seager. Posey is surely a keeper even if the overall
numbers aren’t that appetizing. Cueto is similar. Murphy, Kemp, Pujols, HanRam,
and Frazier all have enough qualities to overlook some of their shortcomings,
so there’s some currency to work with. I’m just not sure it will send Dave
skyrocketing up this list.
13. Moose is Loose! (Brian Bishop) – Like Anal, this is sort
of a function of going and back and forth between pursuing the playoffs or
rebuilding. The indecision led to a stable draftboard that -- for all intent
and purposes -- is intact, and a group of potential keepers that lack a true
headliner. Three guys had more than 100 RBI, but each have consistency concerns
(CarGo, Khris Davis, and Napoli). Kinsler is still a broad contributor, while
the output of Tulo and the other Chris Davis seem to fluctuate between star and
fringe keeper each year. Hamels was predictably solid and Grienke was a huge
disappointment. Hard to knock em, but hard to trust em.
14. Team Chad (Chad Woodward) – Despite the low
ranking, Pierce rode a hot streak and some excellent cheap deadline additions
to a championship without doing serious damage to the 2017 draftboard. There’s a big
gap from 12-15 but Chad has his first five picks and a decent group of keepers,
despite Papi’s retirement. The problem is the group lacks headliners and gets
pretty shallow when you get past Abreu, Yelich, Sale, and Santana. LeMaheiu,
Carpenter, and Porcello are all stable but not flashy. Moncada is flashy, but not at all stable. A
boost is needed in the keeper department to ascend up this list.
