Montezumas
receives:
SP
Marcus Stroman TOR
Stroman
my Cobb Odor receives:
SP
Cody Reed CIN
A
challenge trade! I love these kinds of
trades (not necessarily for me, but in general) because in both cases, the
owner is putting the chips on the table and saying “I know more than you.”
However, in this case, Jeff has a lot more on the line – he’s giving up a
pitcher he traded for and kept, where as I am just losing a guy Rotoworld told
me to pick up the other day, so I did.
Really,
Reed was sort of on my radar merely because of the opportunity to pitch and
stay in the bigs this season, so when it was announced that was happening, it
made sense to grab him and see what he can do. 7 ip, 4 er, and 9 k in your
debut is pretty darn good, and the best part was that he was only at 92
pitches. That said, despite a great fastball, rare lefthand velocity, and a
wipeout slide, he has suffered from control problems and gopherball syndrome in
the past. If his changeup can improve, he could be something special, but the odds
that this happens in the middle of his first MLB season aren’t incredibly good.
Speaking
of not incredibly good, Stroman has a 5.23 ERA this season, including a
8.67/1.93 line over the past month! That sucks! However, my preseason ranks had
Stroman very high and I’m not backing off them given the lack of an apparent
injury and some clear bad luck. His 3.76 xFIP suggest he’s getting railroaded
like few in the league have been this season. His K and walk rates are similar
to past season and not overly impressive, but the HR/FB ratios is elevated and
the GB% is below norms. This may also be an instance where looking at game logs
can help as clearly his only hiccups (big, awful, horrible hiccups) have come
against BAL and BOS, so that is encouraging – except they happen to be in the
same division.
What
it came down to for me was the overall investment in Reed was minimal and the
likelihood that a pitcher of Stroman’s caliber ends the season with a 5.23 ERA
is not good – so I’m counting on riding that progression to the mean, a 4.04
career ERA. Reed, though, showed enough in his debut and his fast rise through
the minor league levels to make me really regret this deal in another month.
---------------------
Brokeback
receives:
SP
Trevor Bauer CLE
16th
rounder
Angry
receives:
SP
Tyler Wilson BAL
12th
rounder
I
hate this deal only because I wish I thought of it sooner! Bauer was relegated
to middle relief for the first part of the season, but has really come along
over the past month. In the past 30 days, he has 5 QS, a 2.52/1.15 and 32 K in
35 IP. His xFIP of 4.11 for the season compared to a 3.46 ERA suggest a bit of
lucky, but not that much – and honestly a 4.11 ERA would be just fine from a
guy with this skillset. He’s walking less guys and still getting 8+ K/9. And
the 9.8 SwStr% suggests his stuff is as filthy as ever. Now, it’s important to
keep in mind that he has shown flashes before and there have been periods of
time when he’s looked like a breakout ace. The likelihood that he falls back to
what he was is still pretty good, but with ample pedigree (third overall in
2011) and youth (25), there is still potential for him to become a very good
SP4, which is worth much much more than a four round upgrade – so great trade
for the new guy!
---------------------
One
Nut receives:
2B
Logan Forsythe TB
SP
Jaime Garcia STL
SP
Kenta Maeda LAD
S.
Napalm receives:
SP
John Lackey CHC
SP
Derek Holland TEX
There’s
parts of this to like for both teams. However, there’s only one player here who
are producing at levels I think they’re capable of going forward: Lackey.
Forsythe and Holland will be better, Garcia and Maeda will be worse. I guess
that makes it a fair deal?
Forsythe
is perpetually underrated, but he is a guy who can help across the board and
provide some OBP stability to go with modest production elsewhere. Garcia
started off like gangbusters, but he’s really come back to earth over the past
month and is striking out under 6 per nine with a 1.50+ WHIP. The question is whether
its natural regression to the mean or an injury. Unlike most, with Garcia, you
have to assume the latter – if it’s not here, it’s coming at some point. Maeda,
meanwhile, was never seen as an ace to scouts, but his current pace make him
clearly an ace and a keeper. I’m willing to be the league catches up to him
eventually and that shiny 2.64/1.10 and nearly 1 K/IP will come back down to a
more modest end line of 160/3.25/1.20/15, which is still really good. The 3.76 xFIP suggests he’s getting a bit lucky,
and probably the park is helping him out quite a bit. The sum of the parts is a
pretty nice return and Jason certainly has the pitching to take a
risk/downgrade in order to get some stability at the cornerstone. But I also
think he could’ve gotten more for Lackey.
Gibby
received easily the best player and someone who is an ideal SP2 because of his
consistency and health. He is a QS machine and there are few that are able to
say that. He is also on pace for 200+ Ks, and there’s really no reason to think
he won’t get there. He’s not a 2.78/0.98 guy, but 3.00/1.10 is reasonable and
far more likely than Maeda. Holland is just not very good. He was supposed to
be, sure, and he’s shown flashes at times, but he’s a career 4.35/1.33 whose
7.3 K/9 isn’t really worth his 2.9 BB/9 – and that number is actually worse
this year at 5.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. With a 5+ ERA, he’s eminently replaceable.
That said, if he progresses to the mean, it means he’s due for some
outperformance in the future (provided he’s not injured). However, his .288
BABIP and 5.38 xFIP suggest there’s nothing unlucky about his production thus
far – he’s just been bad.
---------------------
One
Nut receives:
OF
Jack Bradley Jr BOS
16th
rounder
Angry
Pirates receives:
OF
Byron Buxton
15th
rounder
This
is an interesting one I actually like for both teams. It’s essentially a
one-for-one swap (really guys? Was the one round a dealbreaker?) of a player
with immense pedigree and low production for a player with immense production
and low pedigree.
There’s
nothing in Bradley’s scouting or statistical profiles that suggests he’s a
90/30/120/15/.380 player, but if you go by year-to-date production, that’s
exactly what we’re looking at. The unlikeliness of this occurring makes it more
likely that Kyle is more happy with this trade than Jason at the end of the
year. If Bradley ends up as a
80/20/80/10/.350 player this year, that is still an excellent OF2/3 and a
fringe keeper. But that also means a lot
of regression is coming. Would
45/8/35/5/.330 the rest of the way satiate your needs? It’s more of profile of
a OF4/5, except it’s one you can’t possibly just drop outright. The question is whether you think scouts
misjudged his potential. He was a first round pick, sure, but he was always
thought more of a good defensive player with some speed and on-base skills, not
an offensive powerhouse.
Buxton,
meanwhile, has a half season to show some of that potential he keeps showing in
AAA before floundering at the big league level. Kyle’s roster is the perfect
place for him to be because he’s not ruining someone’s playoff chances while
he’s trying to make his way up here. If he shows progress, I don’t see any
reason he shouldn’t be a keeper going into next season based on potential alone
(and some of the less worthy names that have been kept in recent years).
However, if he continues to flounder, the BUST talk gets louder and louder and
suddenly THE NEXT MIKE TROUT becomes THE NEXT JOSH BOOTY.
---------------------
One
Nut receives:
OF
Adam Jones BAL
17th
rounder
Angry
Pirates receives:
11th
rounder
I
know this trade took place a while ago, but this one seems a little silly at
this point. Jones was struggling at the
time, but had built up enough of a track record for people to realize he would eventually
put up keeper-worthy stats. Of course he has, and he’s done so in the midst of
a powerful BAL lineup. If he gets the
663 abs he’s averaged over his career and maintains the current pace, the
39/13/43/1/.291 line turns into 100/33/111/3/.291. Jason got that for a meager
six rounds. Granted, I would vomit if I had to look at that OBP every time I
saw my roster, but that’s just me and there’s ways to make up for it. Really,
the rest of us should be ashamed for letting Jason get away with this. So many
teams needed that bat so much more than him and had the means to do it. Get
your heads out of your asses!
For
Kyle, he gets another valuable 11th, so I don’t fault him much. I
would only say that there is a way to advertise the players you have that can
be very convincing, which generates a sense of urgency and potentially
competition that can grow the take home. Clearly though someone with the track
record of Jones should demand more than six rounds even in the midst of a
slump.
