Donkey receives:
Fernando Rodney Mia - P
Adam Conley Mia - P
Round 11
Round 13
Cowhide receives:
Tony Watson Pit - P
Jake Odorizzi TB - P
Round 19
Round 20
There’s
no way to look passed this, but given the amount of picks exchanged for
players during this trading period and the availability of RPs like
Watson, this is a huge win for Donkey. Odorizzi
is good and has been particularly good as of late, but we’re talking
about 15 rounds for essentially one player. One of Odorizzi’s biggest
issues is his QS rate, which is a lousy 46%. He’s also not the K machine
he was early in his career. Factor in he’s close
to his career high in IP and his underlying stats indicate his recent
good rates are a bit inflated, and you’ve just got a good back of the
rotation guy – you know, like Ventura or Shoemaker (who went for two
rounds) or Pomeranz (who went for six) or Happ
(who went for seven).
For
Shannon, the opportunistic trader had his ups and downs during this
period, but this was a clear win and a huge return for a non-keeper.
—
Urban receives:
Starling Marte Pit - OF
Max Kepler Min - OF
Round 10
Montezumas receives:
Brian Dozier Min - 2B
Marcell Ozuna Mia - OF DTD
Round 23
It’s
always tough to be objective when assessing your own trades, but with
this one I can clearly say Dan made out better than me here. For this
season, I think Dozier and Ozuna will be much more
valuable than Marte, but the long term value of a player like Marte is
really difficult to look past. Though he has yet to reach double digit
HR this season, Marte should be in the range of 90/20/70/40/.350 every
year, which is tremendously valuable. And at
the age of 27, there’s plenty of good years ahead. When you look
strictly at potential keepers, all the rankings have Marte as at least a
top 25 overall asset. Dozier and Ozuna fall in the 50-100 range, making
them fringy keepers at best. When you consider
the substantial pick return as well – jumping from 23rd to 10th,
and the fact that Kepler has looked like a keeper since he was called
up, this is a huge gain from a future perspective for Dan.
For me, it was all about acquiring power
that might combat with Jason’s team. These two haven’t disappointed,
with 8 HR in 13 games since joining the Revenge. I may have dealt a key
advantage in
having both the NL and AL leaders in SBs (with Villar). But there’s
also potential that an end of season surge could make up for the loss of
Marte in terms of keeper value. At 25, I plan on keeping Ozuna with the
hopes of him getting to the 35-40 HR potential
as soon as next year. Meanwhile, Dozier hit the 30 HR plateau, assuring
his status as a keeper. They may not be flashy names, but they’re
pretty damn good.
Still, given that I gave up a huge pick upgrade and a top 25 keeper, the win clearly goes to Dan.
—
Urban receives:
Derek Norris SD - C,1B
Round 20
S. Napam receives:
Willson Contreras ChC - C,OF
Round 24
This is a bit under the radar, but I like
the move for both. For Dan, he recycles a throw in he acquired from the
Lucroy deal with Jason. For Gibby, four rounds is pretty short money
for a player
that is both a clear upgrade and could enter next year with some keeper
juice considering his position and upside.
—
Thor receives:
Gio González Was - P
Round 19
One Nut recieves:
Matt Shoemaker LAA - P
Round 21
The
amount that Gio is overrated is equal to the amount Shoemaker is
underrated, making this a great move for Jason and a potential loss of a
more pick-producing asset for Shomphe. Shoemaker had
a bad start to the season, but a brief demotion seemed to make all the
difference as his increased use of his slider resulted in huge
improvements and some spectacular single-game performances. He’s been
particularly great at home and at two (late) rounds
is basically a free upgrade for Jason and a lost opportunity for
Shompe.
—
Keepin receives:
Kevin Gausman Bal - P
Round 18
Montezumas receives:
Round 16
Gaus
hasn’t taken the step into ace realm that some expected, but he has
been quite the serviceable back of the rotation type. I had a spot I
needed to free up for Rich Hill’s return, so it made
more sense to deal him for very little than drop him for nothing.
Overall though, Pierce clearly benefits with a nice rotation upgrade for
practically nothing.
—
Urban receives:
Jeremy Hellickson Phi - P
Eduardo RodrÃguez Bos - P DTD
Michael Wacha StL - P DL
Zack Wheeler NYM - P DL
Round 8
Round 14
Cowhide receives:
Jason Hammel ChC - P
Marco Estrada Tor - P
Hisashi Iwakuma Sea - P
Round 18
Round 24
Normally,
in a trade that involves a second round pick and 20 rounds, I’d want to
see a player with at least some hope of being kept go to the buyer.
However, in this case, Dave fortifies his rotation
with three SPs who all qualify as SP3-4 types, which is a major boon
given the needs his rotation had. None of these guys blow you away in
terms of Ks, though each has the potential to post a double-digit game
on occasion. The main thing they bring is stability,
low WHIPs (all 1.10-1.25), low BB rates and a QS almost every time out
(14-15 each). They’re not the fireballer that other top teams have, but
they’re a group that is capable of producing at elite levels -- which
is all that you need when you get to the
playoffs. When you factor in Cueto and the upside of Teheran and
Pineda, this is exactly the type of rotation that can surprise during a
one-week period and win you some money. The guys they’re replacing
represent massive upgrades, so I see why Dave wanted
to make this deal.
Unfortunately, Dave squandered a big
chunk of value from the Benintendi deal by succumbing to Wacha’s quick
downfall. He also had to say goodbye to mainstay ERod, who I knew he
expected big things
from this year. These realizations sting a bit from the Cowhide
perspective.
For
Dan, it’s another good value grab as none of these guys would
individually bring back a second rounder, but as a very appealing group
package, he received a great return. Dan’s ability to trade
off these assets speak to the injustice of the actual standings this
year as Dan’s team had a ton of talent, but really got screwed by the
schedule. As sad as that is, he’s built a pretty little draft board to
go with a solid group of keeper options in GSanchez,
MFranco, GPolanco, Cespedes, SMarte, JFern, and Felix.
Both teams benefit big here, but Dan just a wee bit more.
—
Urban receives:
Willson Contreras ChC - C,OF
Jim Johnson Atl - P
Round 13
One Nut receives:
Jonathan Lucroy Tex - C,1B
Mark Melancon Was - P
Round 22
As
if Jason’s team didn’t have enough power, he went out and had to add
the best catcher in baseball this year. Lucroy has been stellar and goes
to an equally great hitting park with a much much
better lineup. For eight rounds, he also got a potential keeper as a
potential line of 65/25/80/7/.350 from the catcher spot is a pretty
great sixth keeper. This acquisition gives Jason the best lineup on
paper thatwe’ve probably ever seen in the league’s
history. From top to bottom, there are no weak spots and he’s been
playing without Bautista. It’s going to be awfully difficult to beat One
Nut this year.
With
that in mind, it’s not really clear this was a necessary move for
Jason. What Lucroy offers, Jason already has a lot of. Clearly he wanted
the greatest lineup ever, but past performance doesn’t
always indicate future results, so the move from Contreras to Lucroy
may be a wash in terms of overall impact on the season. This is
definitely an improvement, I’m just not sure it’s a necessary one.
Meanwhile,
it’s a nice return for Dan, who also acquires a potential keeper-worthy
catcher in Contreras. I’ll give Dan the win, while acknowledging it was
a fair return for Jason, even if it wasn’t
necessary.
—
Montezumas recieves:
Tanner Roark Was - P
Starling Marte Pit - OF
Round 20 (traded from Montezuma's Revenge)
Round 24 (traded from Montezuma's Revenge)
Thor receives:
Andrew McCutchen Pit - OF
Brandon McCarthy LAD - P DL
Round 9
Round 18 (traded from Thor's Hammered)
While
Marte is broadly considered a top 25 overall keeper, this is a lot to
give up for him and an SP that was a draft afterthought. Cutch is having
a poor season that the geeks have attached to
a change in his swing, potentially the result of an early season thumb
injury that – per usual with Cutch – he has not taken enough time off to
let heal. He’ll be 30 in October, so he’s not old. He’s been slowing
down on the basepaths in recent years, but
was still considered top 5 overall heading into the season – and with
an average OBP of .403 from 2012-2015, he’s even more valuable in our
league. With his skills this is unlikely the end for Cutch, even if the
numbers start to wane. A rebound to 90/25/90/10/.400
in 2017 should be considered likely.
But
with that in mind, he wasn’t helping my Revenge much this season while
Marte was approaching 50 sbs and a tidy .380 OBP, even if the power
numbers were down. He’s an odd story in that he doesn’t
actually walk all that much (4.6% in 2016, 4.8% career), but he hits
for average and gets hit by pitches will relative frequency. Power was
never a bit part of his game, but it’s dropped this year with only 8
this year after 12, 12, 13, 19 the prior four years.
He’s got potential to hit for more power, so there’s a chance for some
growth going forward as well. That said, he’s only two years and one day
young than Cutch, so heading into his age 28 season next year, he sort
of is who he is at this point. Roark, meanwhile,
is a rates darling and QS machine this year, making him a valuable
addition to the middle of the Revenge rotation.
The 9th
round and 17 rounds total is a great return for Shomphe when you
consider the likelihood that Cutch will rebound to be at least as good
as Marte in 2017. So, short term it may
make sense for my purposes but it’s clearly a big win for Shomphe’s
2017 squad.
—
Urban receives:
Hyun Soo Kim Bal - 1B,OF
Round 9
Cowhide receives:
Albert Pujols LAA - 1B
Round 21
Seems
like King Albert is always on the move and we’re always waiting for a
severe decline that never transpires. At 36, he’s a shadow of the man
who posted a 124/47/135/16/.443 line as a 29 year
old, but that shadow is still plenty big as he recently eclipsed the
100 RBI barrier for the 13th time in 16 years. He doesn’t
really steal anymore and his .317 OBP the past three years is poor,
especially when you consider his career average is
above .420. But he’s still got three-category juice that provides Dave
roster with exactly what it has lacked. It’s not surprising this was a
quick move by Dave to get this done and at a pretty reasonable cost of
12 rounds. This is still a fringe keeper for
somebody, so Dave is likely to also gain some value in that sense as
well.
Would’ve
thought a player almost at 30/100 for the season would bring in more
than 12 rounds, even if one was a restricted pick, so Dave gets the win
here – though its hard to blame Dan given the
number of sales he was working on at the times.
—
Thor receives:
Jimmy Nelson Mil - P
Round 17
S. Napalm receives:
J.A. Happ Tor - P
Round 24
On
first blush, 7 rounds seems like a lot when you think of the players
involved because the throw-in and the player being acquired are both
guys you intuitively expect to be in the top 40-60 SP
range -- thus making it hardly worth a seven round upgrade. But these
are two guys heading in opposite directions. Nelson was quickly
jettisoned by Thor after acquisition and has floundered since, while
Happ continues to post excellent numbers since the second
half trade from SEA to PIT in 2015, where he posted a 1.85/1.03 with
9.8 K/9 in 11 starts. He ended up with TOR again in the offseason after a
largely forgettable three-year stint with the Jays in 2012-2014. Most
thought he’d go back to be the AL East version
of JA Happ we all knew and loathed, but instead he’s got 17 QS in 25
starts and has excellent rates at 3.23/1.15 to go with a steady 8.1 K/9.
The underlying show real improvement since his time in PIT, so what was
an excellent/underrated FA pickup for Shomphe
this year turns into a great middle of the rotation add for Gibby.
Seven
rounds may seem like a lot to stay in a tier, but from 24 to 17 isn’t a
huge giveup on Gibby’s part and two swap the Nelson digression for the
Happ upswing is a huge boost heading into the
playoffs. Solid win for the Gibster.
