Week 16 Real Rankings

Five weeks to go. Judging by the offers I've seen, seems like a lot of sellers out there. It will be interesting how this impacts playoff teams during the open trade period. While every team is free to make judgments on their own team, there are only 8 games separating the 8th and 13th spots. Prestige broke the 100-loss barrier this week and sits 59 games out.

There was a changing of the guard atop the actual standings as I overtook Gibby by one game. This looks like it will come down to the wire as we face the same four opponents in five weeks (Munchkins, Prestige, Cowhide, One Nut). Three of those look like playoff teams.

The Carlos Santana-led (6 hrs!) Munchkins rebounded after some mediocre weeks with a stellar 2.9, which would've been significantly better had he some semblance of a bullpen.

The Top 25 looks a lot more normal than it did the last time we checked. Guys I wouldn't have ever expected here when the season began include Blackmon, Frazier, Brantley, Altuve, and Kazmir. Cruz has always had promise, Rizzo was a top prospect who has emerged, and Tanaka and Abreu came in with a lot of well-deserved hype.

Probably tough for Jason to look at since the top overall guy is Felix and Braun is 41st. While Cueto has maintained at 4th overall, Kipnis has been nagged by injuries and is 257th overall. The fringe guys included in those deal also hurt as Erv Santana and Drew Hutchinson have been much better than Adam Eaton and Juan Nicasio. Its not a surprise then that no other team has a more imbalanced roster as his hitting RR is 2nd overall and his pitching RR is 11th.

Top 25
1. SP Felix Hernandez - Munchkins
2. OF Mike Trout - M.E.T
3. SP Clayton Kershaw - M.E.T.
4. SP Johnny Cueto - Angry
5. SP Adam Wainright - Donkey
6. 2B Jose Altuve - Cowhide
7. 1B Paul Goldschmidt - Ring
8. OF Michael Brantley - Donkey
9. OF Giancarlo Stanton - Munchkins
10. OF Andrew McCutchen - Montezumas
11. 1B Jose Abreu - Montezumas
12. SS Troy Tulowitski - Moose
13. SP Chris Sale - Keepin
14. OF Carlos Gomez - S. Napalm
15. OF Nelzon Cruz - Cowhide
16. 1B Miguel Cabrera - Munchkins
17. OF Jose Bautista - Angry
18. 1B Anthony Rizzo - Montezumas
19. SP Masahiro Tanaka - M.E.T.
20. OF Adam Jones - One Nut
21. OF Charlie Blackmon - One Nut
22. SP David Price - Cowhide
23. 3B Edwin Encarnacion - Prestige
24. 3B Todd Frazier - One Nut
25. SP Scott Kazmir - Montezumas

Trade Review: Napalm and Anal

S. Napalm receives:

SP Mike Minor ATL

C Brian McCann NYY

22^nd rounder

AHershiser receives:

C Alex Avila DET

SP Josh Collmenter ARI

16^th rounder

Nothing like a good Sexual/Anal deal. These are no doubt upgrades to Mike’s squad, but these are not the same guys who were deemed keepers before the season. Minor has been dreadful and put up another stinker the day before the trade was executed. His BABIP is .358, 59 points higher than his career average, and his xFIP is 3.69 (ERA is 5.32), so there’s some luck issues going on here. But, man, he’s a hard guy to keep rolling out there in a playoff hunt. Of course, so if Josh Collmenter. It’s been quite the decline for Minor, from being deemed a keeper, to being dealt for a fledgling Verlander, to being swapped for essentially three rounds. Meanwhile, his  former batterymate, McCann, has just been dreadful. I was certain he would flourish in New York, but he has most decidedly not flourished in anyway, with an OBP that is 50 points below his career average and an ISO (=power) that is 60  points below. Maybe its New York, maybe it’s the .258 BABIP (29 points below career), but he too has not been anywhere near keeper value. I expected 30 hr and 90 rbi with a .350 obp. That’s not happening, obviously.

All that said, its an upgrade for Mike across the board and he gave up very little to get it. Have to think Andrew might have done better by waiting until the open trading period to see if these guys improved. I certainly would’ve paid a lot more for Minor if he got hot. I wasn’t going to touch him now though. I give McCann a good probability to be much better, if not the superstar he has the potential to be. All in all, it’s a good investment for Mike but he does risk Minor blowing up his rates for a few weeks until he can get out of this funk.

Trade Review: Montezumas and Anal

Montezumas receives:

SP Kyle Lohse MIL

SS Jimmy Rollins PHI

23^rd rounder

24^th rounder

AHershiser receives:

SS Jean Segura MIL

SP Carlos Martinez STL

18^th rounder

19^th rounder

It was a sad sad day to come to the realization that I had to deal Segura. It was love at first sight when I drafted him in the 22^nd round a year ago and he became the number one ranked fantasy player by the end of April. The love affair continued for a few months before Segura started becoming distant and unresponsive. By the end of the season, I wasn’t even sure he had a pulse. But I stayed with him in the hopes of rekindling the flames that once burned like one thousand suns. I could have left him or gave him away, but I kept him. I kept him even though so many told me to drop him, move on, he’s not good for you. How was I rewarded? The same amount of steals of Todd Frazier and the OBP of Clint Barmes. It was an affair to be remembered and one that will forever be engrained in the lore of the Revenge, but it was time. I would say I wish him well, but I hope he sucks for my own selfish purposes.

OK, moving on, Rollins! Maybe Lars was onto something last year, but he’s on pace for 83/21/73/31/.326. The opportunity to add that, even if the pace doesn’t continue, was too good to pass up and he rewarded me with a homer in his first game. Meanwhile, Lohse is exactly the type of player my staff needed – a QS guy with solid rates and stability. Aside from four starts (one 5 ip/8 er stinker, a nice 8 ip/4 er, and two 5 ip/3 ers) he has pitched a QS in every outing. His Ks aren’t bad for him (on pace for 157), but I’m not worried about that category. Really helps round out my staff well.

It’s actually a nice pull for Andrew when you consider that strong play in a half (he’s done it before) could make Segura at least another chip to trade and possibly a low level keeper. Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez is a young stud with extreme talent who will eventually star in some role in this league. He really could use a third pitch though and his inability to throw deep into games makes him a gamble on a contending staff. Ten rounds will help end draft night a little early and gives Andrew a good start on trade season, even if the standings say he’s one spot out of the playoffs.

Trade Review: Donkey and Urban

Urban receives:

SP Marcus Stroman TOR

18^th rounder

Donkey receives:

14^th rounder

This makes sense, even if Dan’s staff is in need of something much more impactful than a rookie starting pitcher – the most volatile of all volatile things. All his underlying stats point to genuine performance thus far, which is a nice 3.58 era and 1.18 whip to go with 7.8 K/9. The Ks could actually go up quite a bit since his minor league numbers were more in the 10-11 K/9 range. He’s certainly got the pedigree and the promise. Some think he’s better suited as a reliever but I imagine the Jays will let him run with this as long as they can. Averaging less than 2 BB/9 in his first 60 ips in the majors is a very good start. Even if Stroman becomes a legit stud, Dan’s staff probably needs a bit more to compete with the other rotations in the league. But for 4 rounds, this is a good start.

Meanwhile, don’t look now but Chris is already done drafting by the 17^th round and we’re not even to the open trading period. He’s got five 14^th rounders, two 15^ths and three 16^ths. The 14^th is a good round too with guys like Lackey, Haren, Dan Murphy, Yordano, Arenado, Janssen, and Gallardo all good selections this year.

Week 15 Real Rankings

NOTES:
- Week 15 is done and we're 72% of the way through the regular season, two weeks away from the start of the open trading period, four weeks away from the trade deadline, and six weeks away from the regular season. What do we know? There's two really good teams, two pretty good teams, one really bad team and a massive cluster of nine teams that are 17.5 games apart from eachother. Lets see what we know about each team:

1. MONTEZUMAS - My team has been pretty dominant since the halfway mark, going 40-7-3 since week 11 (3.9 RR). This week was historic as the pitching compiled a 1.4 in pitching. At half a game out, it looks like a two horse race.

2. SEXUAL NAPALM - Mike's team hasn't had the relative dominance in recent week, with no sub-5.0 weeks since week 11. Still, he's been one of the most consistent teams, as shown by his VAR and consistent rank with the best hitting and second best pitching.

3. ONE NUT - Jason started strong but has settled in the second tier. With the second best offense and 10th best pitching, perhaps he's rethinking dealing Erv and Felix for a less powerful Braun. He could certainly use reinforcements in this area as his pitching has had an RR of over 9.0 five weeks this season.

4. MUNCHKINS - Chris Shomphe had a tough start, but started to surge after week 5 with four sub-5.0 weeks in a five-week span. He's come back down lately with a 6.8 RR since the halfway point. For the full season, the team suffers the same imbalance as Jason over the course of the season (4th Hit RR/11th Pitch RR). However, he's had the 7th best pitching since the halfway point.

5. COWHIDE - One of the more inconsistent teams in the league, in the past six weeks, Dave has three good weeks ranging from 4.8-5.7 and three bad weeks from 8.3-9.6. This can be entirely blamed on his pitching staff, which has posted three sub-3.0 weeks and two 9.0-plus weeks recently. That said, overall, he's one of the most balanced teams with 8th Hit RR and 5th Pitch RR.

6. KEEPIN - Pierce and Chris Shannon's teams have been the most confusing, so its fitting that they're side by side and 0.11 RR apart, with similar imbalances 10th Hit/6th Pitch and 11th Hit/ 4th Pitch, respectively. Pierce bucked the RR initially by ranking low and climbing in the standings, but has settled on both fronts and is probably around where he should be talent-wise.

7. DONKEY - Guess which team has the second best Real Rank since the halfway point? It's not Napalm, its Donkey by a wide margin (5.1 to 6.6). I made the case a few weeks ago that Shannon could still make a run for it. That is obvious, despite his place in the standings (10th). Even if he decides to keep selling, he could squeak in a la '13 Napalm with a shot at a championship and a bounty of picks.

8. ANAL - Andrew got a much-needed boost in the Actual Standing this week with an 8-1-1 win following back to back 1-8-1 losses. Like Dave, he's been pretty inconsistent lately with 3 weeks of 6.5-7.2 and 3 weeks of 9.1-10.6 over the last 6 weeks. Overall, he's balanced with a 7th best Hit RR and 9th best Pitch RR.

9. ANGRY - Kyle has a clear need for his team, and that's pitching. He's got a powerful offesne that ranks 5th best overall, but with 12th-ranked pitching has had few good weeks. That said, its been better since the second half started, ranking 6th best since week 11. Its the offense that has had troubles lately, with three ranks of over 11.0 in the past six weeks -- that's really bad.

10. RING OF FIRE -  This is just not the type of dominance we've come to expect from Dagan, but the team has improved overall with only one real stinker in the past six weeks. Overall, he's balanced but its really hard to know what to expect from his offense from week to week, as exemplified by his week 12 performance (2.6) and week 13 (11.6). He's gotten lucky though and sits in a playoff spot currently.

11. MOOSE - The champ has had a rough go of it this season. By this time last season, he was sitting in 4th. Ultimately though, it was his four-week surge beginning in week 17 that propelled him into the playoffs and brought him a championship. He's sitting in the last playoff spot currently, so it could conceivably happen again, but there's an imbalance that needs to be addressed - he has the worst offense in the league and 3rd best pitching.

12. URBAN - If he's been nothing else, Dan has been consistent. Unfortunately, the success has been fleeting, though it should be noted that he has had a nice three week stretch of 7.5, 6.5, and 7.5. If he can keep that up, he shouldn't have a problem making up the 3.5 games that separate him and the last playoff spot.

13. M.E.T. - Russ and Gibby have been the most consistent on the season, just at different ends of the spectrum. Still, the playoffs are clearly in his sights if the team continues to perform the way it has the last four weeks, when he's stayed in the 6.7-7.1 range. There's still hope and a real good offense here.

14. PRESTIGE - The one team I would officially call dead. 21 games is a lot to make up and its not like there's many signs of improvement or hope. That said, there's lots of parts. Ortiz, Werth, Grandy, Gordon, Morse, Trumbo, Wilson, Lynn, Skaggs, and Verlander all have value, while EE, Samardzjia, and Longoria are a nice trio of keepers. Hopefully Lars takes advantage of this to improve his keepers and draft status.

Week 14 Real Rankings

- As we approach the All-Star break, Week 14 represents the 2/3 mark for our regular season. Hard to believe, but we're in the final stretch and there's still a lot of movement in the Actual Standings and Real Rankings every week.

- At the top, I gained a couple games on Mike this week as we both have had some nice success recent. I'm 39-8-3 over the past five weeks while Mike has, unbelievable, only had one week of more than three losses since Week 6. That was a 1-9 loss to me.

- In the real rankings, there was a lot of outperformance overall which kept me in the top spot. It is the first week of the year that an average rank of over 5.0 lead all teams.

- Meanwhile, there has been only two other weeks when the lowest average rank for the league was below 9.7.

- Though his pitching stunk, Lars had a massive offensive week, coming in first in rbis and compiling an incredible .425 OBP for the week.

- There are 7 teams with an overall Real Rank average resting in the 0.21 difference between 7.16 and 7.37.

- With Pierce's team leveling out in terms of the difference between Actual Standings and Real Rankings, Kyle and Chris Shannon are currently the most out of whack. While the standings have the Angry Pirates and Donkey Puncherts in 11th and 13th, respectively, the Real Ranks have them in 5th and 8th.

- For average Real Ranks over the last four weeks, there's three outliers (me 4.1, Chris Shannon 4.7, and Lars 9.9) and everyone else is in the 1.5 points between 6.7 and 8.3.