Round 7
Best Pick: 1B David Ortiz, Prestige – He and Cespedes were my top two
hitters, so I was surprised to see Papi fall to seven. Age is a concern, sure,
but the upside is four-category prowess that is not easy to find. Until he
shows he can’t do it anymore, he really should be a keeper.
Runner-Up: SP Mat Latos, Munchkins – My top pitcher comes in the season
limping a little (literally – knee problem, not arm), but no player possesses
greater upside with such a low floor, having proven he can pitch well in a
hitter’s park. He’s only 26, so the next jump into superstardom could come this
year. With Shomphe keeping only a low-K guy like Zimmerman, this was the best
way to go.
Worst Pick: OF Billy Hamilton, Anal
– There were other chances taken in the first round, with Jose Abreu and
Masahiro Tanaka, but this is such a massive question mark in my mind. There is
probably no player with a greater difference in potential outcomes. His floor
is back in AAA. His ceiling is a
basestealer like we haven’t seen in decades, but no matter how much he
dominates the category, he is ultimately only helping in two categories and
could possibly be a major hindrance in OBP. He’ll absolutely be fun to watch; just
a big risk to take this early.
Runner-Up: 1B Billy Butler, Keepin – Just a vanilla option among many
more intriguing types. The .374 OBP is fabulous but 62/14/82/0? VMart did the
same last year and went six rounds later, and HE is likely to gain catcher
eligibility eventually. Butler is lucky to have eligibility at any position,
which limits his value during interleague matchups. Would’ve thought Pierce
would go for Napoli.
X-Factor: OF Josh Hamilton, Cowhide – Abreu and Tanaka were both
considered here, but it’s a matter of upside and Hamilton’s is tremendous as he
posted a 103/43/128/7/.353 line in 2012.
Hard to believe if you watched him last season, but a return to
superstardom is not out of the question. Or he could just be a fragile, frustrating
guy with a pretty name who posts a line similar to Nate Schierholtz. It’s a
risk worth taking for Dave considering the number of early picks he owns.
Round 8
Best: SP Homer Bailey, Ring – I definitely figured he’d go in the first
round. Dagan must be psyched to go into
the draft with no pitchers and come out of the first two rounds with James
Shields and Homer. A 62.5 QS%, 23.4 K%, 6.4 BB%, 3.34 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and
improved velocity made for a dominant season for this one-time super
prospect. The fact that he has
progressed each year leading up to his age 27 season makes him a surefire
four-category contributor going into this season.
Runner-Up: 2B/3B/SS Jurickson Profar, MET – Hindsight is 20/20, sure,
but no one saw a multiple-month injury coming. All they saw was a lot of
promise from a 21 year-old that can fit into three positions. Should’ve been a
first rounder and I’m not going to pretend I didn’t love the pick. Sucks he’s
hurt, but I still think the potential value is there to make this a good pick.
Worst: RP Aroldis Chapman, Keepin – First closer taken always gets
dinged by me. Nothing against Chapman; just a philosophical difference of
opinion. There’s no getting around the
inherent limited contributions of someone pitching a maximum of 75 innings per
year, contributing to three categories vs. a 200-inning, four-category
contributor (and there were plenty great ones available). No points off for
being hit in the face and losing half the season. He was certainly the top
closer, just not the first pick in the second round.
Runner-Up: OF Michael Cuddyer, Dan – Solid, sure, but he’s 35 and has
been pretty inconsistent, not to mention damn lucky. How far someone goes above
and below a .300 BABIP is a pretty good threshold for judging how lucky they
were. Top four last year in BABIP were Chris Johnson (.394), Joe Mauer (.383 –
historically above average here), Yasiel Puig (.383), and Cuddyer (.382). When
someone that lucky only posts a line of 74/20/84/10/.389, it makes me wonder
what an unlucky season looks like.
X-Factor: SS Starlin Castro, Sexual – The only thing keeping him out of
the “worst” is his age. At 24 and with past success, we’ll try to look past the
horrendous line from last year, but it was really, really bad. He had the
second most at bats in the league last year and could only muster 10 HR and 9
SB. Some experts are expecting a rebound. I’m not confident. Just call Gibby
the Gambler.
Round 9
Best Pick: SP Danny Salazar,
Montezumas – Even if I do say so myself… This was the guy I was aiming for in
this spot all along as I waited for my first pick since the first round. His
2013 numbers were terrific, despite the small sample (10 starts), but what
really intrigues me were his phenomenal underlying stats – his K% was
closer-level at 30.8% (second to only Darvish had he qualified IP) and his
SwSTR% was 14.6% (tops in the league). Scouts rave about the stuff, and the
high swinging strike % on all his pitches, so I went long with talent and hope
it pays off. Lars’ pick of Samardzija was a good one as well.
Runner-Up: 1B Brandon Belt, MET – If he ever leaves San Fran, he could
be a top tier 1B option, but right now he’s in the second tier and moving up. At
26, he hasn’t had a season with a full set of at bats, so this should be the
first time he really gets to fill out a line. He’s got the talent to produce a
90/25/90/10/.360 season and this may be the last time he’s available to draft
for quite a while.
Worst Pick: SP Matt Moore, Ring
– I can see why Dagan would go here since he didn’t keep any pitchers and got
solid starters with his first two picks, but Moore just hasn’t shown the type
of progress you’d want from young starters. I actually buried him in my
rankings because despite his luck (.259 BABIP, 3.29 ERA and 4.32 xFIP), he
still only managed QS in about half his starts. He also saw a 2 mph drop in average
fastball velocity while walking an astounding 11.8%, with a tendency to give up
a lot of fly balls. Talented, yes, but scary.
Runner-up: SP Johnny Cueto, One
Nut – I don’t have a big problem here, just a noteworthy lack of health and
upside. He’s only gone over 200 IP once (2012) and managed just 170 Ks that
year, which is fine, just not great. Scouts don’t like the twist in his
delivery, which has been tied to his oblique/back issues in the past. He’ll be
good when he plays, but there are enough concerns to be comfortable with this
selection.
X-Factor: SP Hisashi Iwakuma,
Keepin – Kuma would’ve been a keeper had it not been for the finger injury. It
sounds like he’s ready to come back in late April, at which point he could
conceivably get back to bringing in QSs at a 70% rate and posting a lucky by
still pristine 2.66/1.01 with good K and BB%. That said, fingers are important
for pitchers, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the ailment doesn’t just magically
disappear.
Round 10
Best Pick: SP Sonny Gray, Angry
– He was right next to Salazar in my rankings, with only slightly less
impressive numbers in a similar small sample – 24.8 K%, 53.6 GB%, 2.99 xFIP,
and that doesn’t include his more impressive playoff performances. With the
upside of 200K ace, I thought he’d go a lot sooner so Kyle made off like a
bandit here.
Runner-Up: 3B Aramis Ramirez,
Donkey – Though he has a reputation as fragile, Aramis had put together two
great seasons of 149 games with at least 80/26/93/.360 before a knee injury
last season. But when he played, he played well, producing at the same rate as
the two years prior. He’s starting the season healthy, so this is an excellent
chance to take that he’ll remain healthy and produce like a top five 3B.
Worst Pick: SP Kris Medlen, Munchkins
– Comon, rook. Get your head in the game. Just kidding. As if it’s not
challenging enough to suddenly join this league, computer issues caused a few
problems for several people.
Runner-Up: SS Brad Miller, Urban
– …like that. Yeah, a decent player, but definitely too early.
X-Factor: 2B/3B Brett Lawrie,
Montezumas – Already been kept twice, it seems like most have given up on this
once over-hyped uber prospect who has largely failed to contribute to any
fantasy team outside of his cup of coffee in 2011. But, he’s only 24 and has
shown flashes of at least a 20/20 type and possibly more. With the 2B/3B eligibility, he offers very
valuable position flexibility to go with the now-tempered but still ample
promise. That said, another 70/10/70/10/.330 season cements his value as a low
tier option.
Round 11
Best Pick: SP Lance Lynn,
Prestige – He’s got a resume better than many of the pitchers that went before
him, striking out 372 batters in 377 innings over the past two years. Lefthanders
can hit him hard, but all in all, his 3.80/1.30 is manageable, even if his 57
QS% is poor. He’s only 27 with a power arm, and it’s conceivable that he gets
better. The bottom line is it’s tough to find guys who can strikeout 200 in a
season, so the fourth round is great value.
Runner-Up: OF Brandon Moss,
Sexual – Not many people have an ISO better than their batting average, but
that was Moss in 2013 (.267 ISO vs. .256 AVG), crushing 30 homers in just 446 at
bats. He strikes out a lot and will platoon, but who cares? When he’s in, he
hits and he’s eligible at OF and 1B. Harken back to the 2013 draft and think of how
you perceived Chris Davis at the time - a former so-so prospect, with big power,
some on base skills and who strikes out a lot. That Davis guy had a nice season,
huh? Hey, you never know.
Worst Pick: OF Byron Buxton, One
Nut – Don’t get me wrong, I love him too. But hear me out. I believe the NA
slot should be filled with a player who is likely to contribute in 2014. It’s
not like you get to keep them forever just because we have slot that will be
primarily filled by minor leaguers. Three months ago, Buxton was a teenager. If
he sees the big leagues at all this season, it will likely be very limited. Now
that we’ve established his value for 2014 as basically nothing, will he prove
enough in that time (maybe a month) to be worthy of keeping? It wouldn’t be the
first time someone has kept a player that hasn’t had significant time in the
majors. But for every Wil Myers, there’s a half dozen Gordon Beckhams. At this
point in the draft, there were very good 2014 contributors available.
Runner-Up: SP Jered Weaver, Donkey – Like Moore, Weaver was much
farther down my list than others, namely because he doesn’t strike out guys
like he used to. His 4.31 xFIP suggests his 3.27 ERA was lucky, while his 30.8
GB% is in the top five worst among qualifiers. He’ll probably be a fine, middle
of the road guy, but there was better potential for excellence available.
X-Factor: SP Zach Wheeler,
Sexual – An overdraft in my mind, but there’s plenty of potential to get
excited about. The problem is the control, which is maddening to deal with in
real life and fantasy and often results in demotion. Managers love a fastball
that averages 94.4 mph, but they don’t have much patience for a 4.1 BB/9. Matt
Harvey was similar when he came up, but we can’t assume they’ll have the same
path because they’re in the same organization.
Round 12
Best Pick: 1B/OF Chris Carter,
Anal – I was really hoping he’d drop a few more rounds, but he really is great
value here. He falls into the class of guys like Adam Dunn who experts will
warn you not to take because of the effect on AVG. Except we don’t use AVG and
Carter walks 12.0% of the time, making his .320 OBP much more palatable than
his .223 AVG. The pedigree is there. Age 27 season is there. Regular at bats
are there. OF eligibility is there.
Forty-home run power is there too.
Runner-Up: SP Justin Masterson,
Prestige – Masterson is a favorite of mine due to his high K rate (23.8%) and
high GB rate (58.0%). Lefty-heavy lineups can give him fits and his control can
wane at times, but the Ks come in bunches and the 62.1 QS% is more than
serviceable. If he ever gets his control in check, he could be a top 20
pitcher.
Worst Pick: 3B Nick Castellanos, MET – I thought it was a reach here. I like him fine, but he’ll be at the
bottom half of the lineup and there will be an adjustment period for sure. He
doesn’t project to have big time power despite the great spring, but he has the
pedigree to suggest promise. With only 18 major league at bats under his belt, I’d
like him better if he could be stashed in the NA slot. It’s just tough to count
on a 22-year old when there are professional hitters like Headley, VMart, Gardner,
and Carter going right after him.
Runner-Up: SP Jake Peavy, Keepin
– Pierce’s admitted homerism was shining through with his pick here. Peavy always
seems to be on my team because I like his control and K potential, I just don’t
love him in Boston. Too many fly balls, with diminishing FB velocity, SwSTR%,
and a propensity to get hurt. Would’ve been fine in the three or four more
rounds, but there’s a list of 15-20 guys I would’ve taken before him at this
point.
X-Factor: 1B Victor Martinez,
Kyle – The power is not coming back, but the RBIs should with the move to the
cleanup spot. The question is whether he’ll get the five starts at catcher to
be eligible. Ausmus’ comments make it sound like he’ll get there in short
order. At 1B, a line of 68/14/83/0/.355
is barely rosterable. At C, it’s top five production.
Round 13
Best Pick: SP AJ Burnett,
Montezumas – This guy had 209 Ks last year, with a 60 QS% and 3.30/1.21 in 2013
– good enough for 31st overall starter. Somehow he was the 35th
starter drafted, which, factoring in the 19 starters that were kept, makes him
the 60th pitcher taken this year. He’s much better than that. My
only guess is his delayed signing made his ADP go down and get buried in ranks
across the board, including Yahoo. I thought he’d be a great third starter, but
I love him as my fifth starter – even with a worse park and infield defense.
Runner-Up: OF Christian Yelich,
Keepin – One of the biggest issues with keeping young players like this
22-year-old pup is they often are OBP hindrances, but not Yelich. He got 240 at
bats last year, which is a decent amount, and got on base at a 370 clip with a
11.4 BB%, which is outstanding for a young player and is in line with his minor
league numbers. He also displayed a bit
of power; if he improve there, he will easily outperform this draft position. I
wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a keeper next year.
Worst Pick: SP Alex Wood, Angry
– I realize I’m in minority with this guy, but I just don’t think he’s all that
good. Much of his early success was the result of his deceptive delivery, which
major leaguers eventually figure out. Meanwhile, that herky-jerkiness looks
like it could result in injury. I don’t mind taking a shot with young guys, but
there were a lot less scary options at this point. With that in mind, this is
still one of the better “worst picks” listed here.
Runner-Up: 3B Will Middlebrooks,
Keepin – Again, a guy I actually liked and hoped to draft ... you know, in like
nine more rounds. Nothing from his 2013 season justifies such a high draft position.
He could be fine this year, but the bottom line is he’s not a value pick here
if you could’ve taken a great starter here and still selected him later. The badness is compounded further by the Round
14 worst pick.
X-Factor: SP Archie Bradley, Sexual
– Again, I think Mike’s team should be renamed “Upside.” A talent, no doubt,
but like Wheeler, he hasn’t exhibited the best control. He could be an amazing
pick, but he appears ticketed for the minors and there are enough other options
available for the D-backs to keep him there until he can straighten out his
control issues. He’ll be up at some point though, so a great NA guy.
Round 14
Best Pick: 3B Nolan Arenado, Angry – In addition to having pedigree that
suggest he’ll produce better stats than he posted last year, his underlying
numbers show a tremendous K rate (14.0%) for someone his age. It doesn’t take a
Rhodes Scholar to see how such a high rate of contact with an improving
approach at the plate can translate well to Coors Field. The .301 OBP sucks and
the 4.5 BB% is dreadful, but not uncommon for young hitters. Expect a leap.
Runner-Up: SP John Lackey,
Keepin – If we could look back and remember what Lackey was when he was with
the Angels, it’s not hard to write-off the ligament tear 2011 and lost 2012 and
realize the 2013 version is who he is. And that it is damn good. Unspectacular,
sure, but a 65.6 QS% 3.52/1.16 (comparable xFIP) and a 20.7/5.1/46.8 (K/BB/GB%)
is extremely valuable in the middle of a rotation. Great grab.
Worst Pick: 3B Matt Dominguez,
Keepin – Pierce appears to be going for extremes here in my rankings, but I
don’t understand this at all. Sure, he hit for some power, but his .286 OBP was
dreadful. You might note that, like Arenado, Domiguez had a nice K% (16.3%) to
go with that low walk rate at a similar age (not to mention a great glove)… and
you’d be right. But you’d be missing a key number: 31st (the round in which
Yahoo projects Dominguez to be drafted in a 14-person league) and 11th (Arenado’s
projected round). There was little chance Dominguez would’ve been taken before
the 20th. He was a high draft pick, but didn’t have the minor league numbers
Arenado did, and with another question mark 3B on the roster already, this is
bad value here.
Runner-Up: OF Leonys Martin,
Sexual – I don’t have a huge problem with this given his ability to steal and
ADP, but there weren’t many bad picks in this round and I just think his upside
is limited here and that he’ll lose at bats to Choice and Moreland along the
way.
X-Factor: TIE SPs Marco Estrada
and Yovani Gallardo, Sexual – Didn’t sound like Mike planned to take Estrada
here, but I actually had him ranked above Gallardo thanks to an excellent K
rate (23.1%), BB rate (5.7%), and SwSTR (10.9%). I actually really liked him
going into last year, but an injury thwarted that campaign. He ended up
finishing the year very strong. With Gallardo, we don’t need to look at
underlying stats. He lost his shaky control and 1 MPB off his heater and sucked
all season. He’s a 200K guy normally, so I was just looking for strong reports
from spring training and we’ve seen that. Estrada lacks track record and
Gallardo is coming off a bad year, so it’s easy to see a scenario where both
stink, but they could also prove to be tremendous value here.
Round 15
Best Pick: SP Scott Kazmir,
Montezumas – One of the reasons I liked my draft so much was securing Kaz as my
#6. He has everything going for him
coming into the season, with a nice xFIP (3.36), great K rate (24.1%), highish
BABIP, restored velocity, and a great new park for a fly ball pitcher. The
question for Kaz has always been health and the triceps soreness that came
about before the draft may have scared some off, but all reports make it sound
like he’s good to go and could regain his once gaudy status.
Runner-Up: SP Josh Johnson,
Cowhide – It would be disingenuous of me to say I didn’t really want JJ this
year. I did. Like Kaz, he was in a pitcher’s dream park, close to home, and
looked good in spring training. Alas, the injury bug that has plagued his once
promising career popped up again in the form of a strained forearm. He’ll miss
the first month. It’s anyone’s guess after that, but I’m not going to pretend I
didn’t like the pick at the time. I liked Dan’s picks of Porcello and Ubaldo
here too.
Worst Pick: SP Matt Harvey,
Sexual – As with most of my complaints thus far, it’s just a matter of timing.
I fully expected Harvey to be drafted and stashed, but not here, not when guys
that struck out almost 200 guys last year are still available. I just see no
way he would’ve gone before the 18th. The other issue is it severely handicaps
your team if you can only access one DL spot all season. If things go south and the tradewinds are
blowing, you could have no choice but to drop him. That’s why I’d feel better if I only wasted a
pick in the 20s.
Runner-Up: OF Michael
Brantley, Cowhide – There’s just no one that values this guy like Dave does. I
know Dave was wrapping up his draft at this point, but the 66/10/73/17/.332
line he offers is just so boring. Would’ve rather seen a shot at some upside
with guys like Bourn, Calhoun, Rasmus, Hunter, Venebale, and a cast of thousand
other more interesting guys all available.
X-Factor: 2B Dan Uggla, Prestige
– Easily would’ve been a “best pick” if he was taken like four rounds later. His
extreme .225 BABIP suggest he isn’t close to as bad as he performed last
year. That said, it takes an exceptional
level of suckiness to walk 14.3% of the time and still only have an OBP of .309. It seems like analysts expect him to lost his
job, and Yahoo’s rank indicates as much. I still believe there is a great power
bat with a serviceable OBP at a premium position there, but still, there’s
concern.
Round 16
Best Pick: SP Tyson Ross, Anal –
If there was one guy who surprised me after looking deeper at his 2013 numbers,
it’s Ross. His KGB (K% plus GB% minus
BB%) was tops in the league at 72.5, with a excellent 25.7 K%. The average fastball velocity went up almost
2 mph and he induced 12.5% SwSTR. Give him a full season in San Diego in his
age 27 season, and this has the look of a breakout star.
Runner-Up: OF Nick Swisher,
Montezumas – I completely acknowledge there is nothing sexy about this pick,
but last year was his ninth straight year of hitting over 20 homers and eighth
straight year of more than 145 game. His career OBP is .358, 100 points higher
than his average (indicating why most analysts are down on him). His run
producing stats were surprisingly low at 74 R and 63 RBI, but he had four
straight season of 80+ RBIs before that and is in the middle of an improving
Indians lineup.
Worst Pick/Runner-Up: TIE RPs
Huston Street (Keepin), Fernando Rodney (Urban), and Tommy Hunter (Anal) – Hard
to really choose someone I didn’t like at least a little bit in this round, so
I went with the threesome of closers most likely to lose their jobs. I
preferred Parnell, Axford, Soria, or Nate Jones over all those guys.
X-Factor: TIE 1B Mark Teixera,
MET, and SP Michael Pineda, Urban – I’ll go with a pair of Yanks with big
questions marks here. I expect both to regain some semblance of their prior
form, but the problem with Tex is he was on the decline as it was and the days
of 40 HR and 100 RBI with a respectable OBP are gone. With Pineda, he’s just
limited by the Yankee’s expected unwillingness to let him go far beyond 160
innings. Shoulder injuries are tough and I don’t think they’ll push it.
Round 17
Best Pick: TIE SP Dan Straily,
Anal, and SP Tyler Skaggs, Prestige – These two were a few spots away from each
other in my ranks, so I couldn’t choose one. I will say Skaggs has the higher
ceiling and the lower floor; he needs to keep his velocity up and delivery
consistent. Straily, meanwhile, is a bit perplexing with a high xFIP, poor QS%
(44.4), and a good/not great K rate (19.4%) that doesn’t match his very high
SwSTR (11.1%). I expect solid mid-rotation guys with 160-180 Ks.
Runner-Up: TIE SP Drew Smyly,
Ring, and SP Ivan Nova, Donkey – Not to be indecisive but these guys were
literally right next to each other in my ranks. Never been a big Nova guy, but
he had solid rates across the board last year and no major red flags; at 27, he
could take a step to the next tier. Smyly will be in a new world starting in
the bigs as opposed to the relief role he so aptly filled last year. It could
be challenging for him to maintain his velocity, and I could see it going
south, but both these guys could also get 160-180 Ks – they just come with more
risk.
Worst Pick: RP Carlos Martinez,
Sexual – Again, hindsight is 20/20, but I expected a relief role going into the
draft and that’s what happened (though he deserved to be the starter). I hate
rostering middle relievers, no matter how good they are. He might prove to be
worth waiting for. I expect he’ll start at some point, but that what I thought
about Smyly last year too. Meanwhile Jaime Garcia will get first dibs when he’s
ready in April. By the time they want to
switch, he’ll probably have to spend a month in the minors to get stretched out
again. But the Cards are smart and I’d say it’s more likely he stays in the eighth
all season.
Runner-Up: C Salvador Perez,
Munchkins – A decent enough catcher, but he’s more valuable in AVG leagues and
basically sucks the value out of keeping someone like Carlos Santana, who is so
much more valuable than most other catchers in an OBP league. To have a catcher
occupying a UTIL slot is very uncommon. That said, he’s 24 and has promise, so
it’s worth seeing if he can produce in the heart of a pretty good KC lineup.
X-Factor: OF Grady Sizemore, MET
– No one fits this description more than Grady. If he stays healthy and
produces like he did three years ago, wow. This would be up there with the Mike
Trout and Chris Davis picks of recent years. But, those are the largest “ifs”
you could possibly imagine. Still, so far, so good.
Round 18
Best Pick: OF Josh Willingham, Anal – Oh, what short-term memories we
have. Remember the 85/35/110/.366 line from 2012? That wasn’t that long ago.
He’s 35, but he could do it again quite easily. I was hoping to get him on my
roster, but it was especially great value for Andrew, who entered the draft
with a dearth of power options.
Runner-Up: RP Joakim Soria, Anal – Another nice pick by Andrew, who had
a very nice draft for someone with such a weak crop of keepers. This was a
risk. A very capable closer went right after this pick in Axford, so to take
someone who hadn’t been named closer was a leap of faith. It paid off big time,
as Soria most assuredly would’ve gone about five rounds earlier had he been the
surefire closer on draft day.
Worst Pick: OF Rajai Davis,
Angry – As with the Leonys pick, consider me among those who hates having
single-category guys on my roster. Davis does nothing but steal and is note
expected to see any boost in playing time because of Dirks injury. It’s all
well and good when you’re in need of a steal Sunday to win the category, but
how often does that happen? Practically speaking, it’s difficult to gain the
speed value he offers unless you play him every day and then you’re sacrificing
three categories.
Runner-Up: RP Neftali Feliz, MET
– The other side of the Soria pick. Feliz looked like the perfect value closer
heading into spring training, but had problems regaining his old form and was
sent down to AAA a week or so after the draft. It was a chance worth taking as
Texas closers tend to get a lot of saves, but tough break for Russ.
X-Factor: OF Corey Hart, One Nut
– Moustakas and Howard were good candidates as well, but neither have reached
the heights (recently) of Hart, who averaged 87/29/83/7/.343 from 2010-2012 before missing all of last
season. I’d be more bullish if he didn’t land in Seattle and hurt his back
already. Sounds like he’ll DH to start. Could go either way.
Round 19
Best Pick: 1B Adam Dunn, Moose –
I know we all grew up in the juicer era, but did you realize only 15 guys hit
more than 30 homers last year? Dunn would’ve never made it this far if I didn’t
already have three first basemen. He may get platooned, but it doesn’t really
matter because he never hit lefties anyway. Might actually help. He’ll never be
ranked high by those factoring in AVG, but a little better luck in BABIP (.266)
will push up his OBP from .320, which is not good but not a killer either. If
you look at category contribution and past position scarcity, he’s better than
Pedro Alvarez, who went in the first round. Great value here.
Runner-Up: SP Ian Kennedy,
Cowhide – I’d like him a lot more if he put up great numbers after he arrived
in San Diego last year, but I’m willing to look past that. The problem with
Kennedy is you never known when he’ll be on.
When he’s off, the ball is flying out of the park and can kill your ERA
for the week. But he also sports a 20.5 K%. I have less faith than some, but
he’s a great guy to round out the bottom of Dave’s staff.
Worst Pick: SP Patrick Corbin,
Munchkins – Ugh.
Runner-Up: TIE OF Ben Revere,
Prestige, and OF Eric Young, Anal – I’d almost rather have Corbin. At least he
won’t hurt you in a category. Both these guys have career OBPs of .325, which
is palatable when someone is contributing in multiple other categories. These
guys are all speed, and like Rajai, are more likely to hurt than help.
X-Factor: 2B/3B Anthony Rendon,
Montezumas – For a guy who hasn’t put up very good major league numbers, he
gets a lot a lot of discussion among those in fantasy circles. The reason is
his college and minor league success should eventually translate to the majors.
At 24 and with his first glimpse of a full season of PT, this could be there
year the rumored power and solid on-base skills come together. Considering the
amount of preseason hype a multi-positional flexibility, I’m surprise he lasted
this long.
Round 20
Best Pick: SS Javier Baez,
Prestige – Probably the best NA pick of the night. He is young, but the power
is legit and will be on full display in June at the latest. He has crushed
everywhere, including spring training. That power from a middle infield spot
(and potentially 2B/3B/SS eligibility) is extremely valuable and a surefire
keeper if he can produce once he’s up for good.
Runner-Up: SP Kyle Lohse, Anal –
Sexy, it is not, but the 3.25/1.17, 62.5 QS% and consistent health is nothing
to sniff at either. He won’t strike out much, but he rarely throws stinkers and
with a good group of power pitchers, represents an excellent contributor to
Andrew’s staff.
Worst Pick: 2B Alex Guerrero,
Cowhide – Guerrero came in with big question marks, as most Cuban defectors do.
He didn’t exactly make the best impression when he got to camp and quickly
showed he wasn’t ready. He was sent down to AAA and really doesn’t have the
type of upside worth stashing in the NA slot. That said, it was a very late
pick for Dave, so no real loss.
Runner-Up: SP Alexi Ogando, One
Nut – This guy is just not a starter. He just doesn’t have the stamina. Sure,
he’s done well in spurts, but the underlying stats are not good. The strikeout
rate was low (16.6%) and the walk rate was high (9.4%), while the low BABIP
(.259) and an xFIP that was 1.47 higher than his ERA suggest he was very lucky.
There was basically no value here. The Rangers recognized that and put him in
the pen.
X-Factor: OF Michael Bourn,
Moose – Almost was best pick, but the lingering leg injuries concern me and
obviously concerned the league. Still, much value could be extracted here if he
regains his pre-2013 form, which was a solid on-base guy with great speed, some
power, sitting on top of a good lineup. If he was healthy, this would be an
easy best pick.
Round 21
Best Pick: SP Kevin Gausman,
Montezumas – Nothing from this round jumped out at me, so I’m going to go with
a guy I’m particularly fond of. After Baez, he was the next best NA stash in my
book. He’s unlikely to start the season with the team, but like Baez, if he did,
he would be great. He’ll be up in a couple months and could be the O’s top
pitcher. The underlying numbers (in just 24 innings) show his 7.66 ERA was not
reflective of his talent and excellent control. Could prove to be most
valuable.
Runner-Up: OF Will Venable,
Sexual – Sure his OBP stinks, but I’ll take this guy over the various
one-category speedsters that were drafted far before him. In only 481 at bats,
he went 22/22 and is a serious threat for 30/30 if they let him go every day
and he stays healthy. Extremely underrated.
Worst Pick: C Derek Norris,
Prestige – A lot of teams waited on catcher and rightly so. There’s a lot of
good, young catchers who could blossom this year. But I never thought of Norris
as being one of them. With good on-base skills, he could be serviceable if he
got the at bats, but he’s destined for a platoon position, which is just
unacceptable for a fantasy catcher. Meanwhile, guys like d’Arnaud, Mesoraco,
and Grandal were all sitting there.
Runner-Up: TIE 3B Kris Bryant,
Ring, and SP Noah Syndergaard, MET – I really don’t have a big problem with
these picks. I like them both as prospects, but in both cases its unclear
whether they’ll see the majors this year. Bryant has the talent to have a big
minor league season and still be keeper-worthy, but the uncertainty made me put
them here.
X-Factor: SP James Paxton,
Donkey – In four starts last season, he was fabulous. His 73.9 KGB was fourth
highest in the league, highlighted by a 22.3 K%. It’s an extremely small sample
size and his 3.08 xFIP was double his 1.50 ERA, while his .203 BABIP suggests
he’s in for a surprise this year. But he was a legit semi-prospect and has
shown impressive velocity (94.9 mph), so this could turn into a great pick.
Round 22
Best Pick: SP Charlie Morton,
Donkey – Morton has suffered from a variety of injuries as well as some steady
rotation competition, which has kept him from putting together a full season of
real value. This could be his year. Last year was actually quite good; he
induced a lot of groundballs (62.8%) and had a decent enough K rate (17.2%). He
picked up almost 3 mph on his fastball from 2012 to 2013 and with full health
and a rotation spot all to himself, I think he’ll be a solid mid-rotation
pitcher this year.
Runner-Up: C
Miguel Montero, Montezuma’s – Back injuries hurt him last year, when he was a third
round draft pick – and for good reason, following two straight 85+ RBI seasons
to go with excellent OBPs of .351 and .391, respectively. Even in a down year, he walked 10.7% of the
time. At age 30 and now in good health, the talent is still there and a rebound
to at least a top 10 catcher is likely, while top five isn’t out of the
question.
Worst Pick: SP Juan Nicasio, Prestige – He’s had a great spring and may
grab the fifth spot in the rotation, but the guy has been waiver wire material
for quite a while now. I mean, he’s made 55 starts in his career and has a 4.92
ERA and 1.45 WHIP. I didn’t even have him on my list.
Runner Up: RP Danny Farquhar,
Munchkins – A good closer last year unfortunately got replaced by a crappy one
in Seattle. He’s one of the most valuable back-up closers out there given
Rodney’s volatility, but unfortunately eighth inning guys have little value.
X-Factor: SS Jimmy Rollins, Anal
– Why not? Last year’s number one overall pick didn’t have a good year, but
he’s had a great career and it’s not unreasonable to expect him to return to at
least a some watered down form of his 2012 self, when he hit 102/23/68/30/.316.
At least you don’t give up much of a pick… you know, like the first overall
pick.
Round 23
Best Pick: OF Torii Hunter, Ring
– Given some of the crap that’s made its way on the rosters to this point, it’s
astounding someone like Hunter was available with one round to go. The
90/17/84/3/.334 wasn’t vintage Torii, but that’s still very valuable and
there’s no reason to believe it won’t be reproduced. Sure, his 4.0% walk rate
is among the worst of high profile players in the past decade, but he is very
consistent and an excellent fourth OF.
Runner-Up: 2B/3B/OF Kelly
Johnson, One Nut – This could be a classic great bench bat, with multi-position
eligibility, solid on bases skills, and regular playing time. His power and high fly ball percentage
(46.1%) should play quite well in Yankee stadium. He’ll have some cold spells,
but he could have a great bounceback season.
Worst Pick: SP Mark Appel,
Keepin – Again, not likely to appear in the bigs this year, so I doubt he
contributes to this team nor do I expect he will produce enough to be
considered a keeper.
Runner-Up: OF AJ Pollock, One Nut – Umm... why? Sure, he might get a
little better with more playing time but he was never much of a prospect, and
his 2013 rates applied to 550 at bats would generate a forgettable
79/10/47/15/.322. He did steal 12 bases in 15 tries, so I guess that’s good,
but there’s just little upside here.
X-Factor: OF BJ Upton, Montezuma’s
– At this point, why not take a shot at a fifth outfielder who had been a
keeper for years and came two homers shy from 30/30 two years ago? I find it
difficult to believe he just suddenly lost his talent on the drive north to
Atlanta. It sounds like he’ll bat second in a great lineup, so any improvement
could mean big time value. Or he could be worse than last season. Either way,
worth a shot.
Round 24
Best Pick: 1B Kendrys Morales, Angry – Really, this is the perfect
short-term player for the NA slot because he’ll keep the NA designation until
he’s starting for some team and producing solid power from the middle of their
lineup. It does lose the keeper upside of the minor leaguers that could fill
the spot, but practically speaking, I’d be surprised if anyone gets more
production out of the NA slot this year than Kyle.
Runner-Up: SP Drew Hutchinson,
One Nut – One of the best Mr. Irrelevants in years, I think. Hutchinson has had
tantalizing stuff since he came to the league, but has never been healthy. He’s
feeling good and looking good now with a phenomenal spring training. He could
turn into nothing, but it’s a great chance to take and the upside is ample.
Worst Pick: RP Edward Mujica,
Munchkins – Like Farquhor, he was a good closer last year, but goes into the
season as a good middle reliever. Not very valuable in this league.
Runner-Up: OF Nate McLouth,
Munchkins – If he was starting, he’d be a great pick at this point. But as a
fourth outfielder who has some talent, he’s not really worth a roster spot.
X-Factor: SP Derek Holland,
Moose – If the Champ can make it through half the season not needing the DL
spot, this will be a fantastic pick. He was excellent last year with 189 Ks, a
3.42/1.29, and a tremendous 66.7 QS%. Not to mention, he’s not coming back from
an arm injury, but rather a knee injury suffered from tripping over his dog, so
it would be less unlikely to expect the ailments to linger.
