2012 Keeper Preview

Prestige Worldwide - Lars
Definite – 1B AGonzalez BOS, 3B ELongoria TB, OF CGranderson NYY, SP DPrice TB,
Considerations – SS ACabrera CLE, OF AJones BAL, SP MBumgarner SF, SP JPapelbon PHI, C VMartinez DET
Stretch –OF DStubbs CIN, RP ABailey BOS, SP DHudson ARI

Tough break on VMart as he gave Lars tremendous value at a shallow position. Lars would be quite happy if his top producers put up the same numbers they did in 2011, as AGon, Longo, Grandy, Assdribble, and Price were all relatively healthy (though Longoria missed some time) and very productive. Hard to expect Granderson to do the same, but its not out of the question and Lars has a strong base with which to build a contender. Something short of truly keeper-worthy based on last years numbers, Jones and Bumgarner could have 2012s that will make Lars regret not keeping them if he goes a different route. The “stretches” are all good, but in a redraft league you wouldn’t take any of them in the first six rounds, so not terribly troubling to put them back in the pool.

Cowhide Joyride – Dave
Definite – 1B PFielder DET, SP TLincecum SF, 3B RZimmerman WAS, C BPosey SF, 2B RWeeks MIL, SS EAndrus TEX
Considerations – None
Stretch – OF LMorrison FLA

Really, Dave did a fine job setting up his 2012 squad in the weeks leading up the trade deadline and has plenty of picks to go with a fine group of keepers, which includes a complete infield made up of top-five guys at each position. Early reports on Posey are positive; if he and Andrus take the next step, this could make Dave a contender. The good group of hitters cover all five categories, but there has to be some concern about injuries with Zimm and Weeks perpetually injured and Posey recovering from a ripped up knee. It’s always nice to have that ace on top in Lincecum. Really nothing left to trade off as the roster was picked pretty clean in August 2011, though Morrison has the pedigree to have a good year. Dave can just sit back, read up on outfielders, and prepare for what will be a fun fifth and eighth round, in which he has four picks each.

Anal Hersheiser – Andy
Definite – SP JVerlander DET, SP DHaren LAA, 1B PKonerko CHW,
Considerations – 1B RHoward PHI, SP SStrasburg WAS, C AAvila DET, 3B MReynolds, OF MBourn ATL, OF MMorse WAS, SS JRollins, RP MRivera NYY
Stretch – RP BWilson SF, SP NFeliz TEX

Unfortunately for Andy, he’s got a lot of depth as far as keepers go but not a lot of top-tier talent (though, that is to be expected for a team coming off a successful expansion year). It had to hurt to see Howard rip his Achilles tendon square off the bone for the last out of the NLCS. It sounds like he could be back early in the season, but he’s a big guy who will have not had a fully functional leg for a significant portion of the offseason and there’s no DH in the NL. Its unclear how that will affect his value in 2012. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of questions marks here – Strasburg and Mo’s health, the effect of aging on Konerko and Rollins, the ability of Avila and Morse to replicate 2011, and the limits of Bourn and Reynolds in two of the five categories. He’d have a great team if he could keep everyone, but there’s a bunch of question marks that make it difficult to peg down exactly who is keeper material here.

THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS – Brandon
Definite – 1B APujols LAA, SS JReyes MIA, 3B MCabrera DET, OF AMcCutchen PIT
Considerations – OF JHeyward ATL, OF BHarper WAS
Stretch – SP FLiriano MIN

As if Casten needed help setting up a kickass team for 2012, the Tigers sign Fielder and make the improbable move of Miggy to third—creating a monster at a pretty weak position, who will qualify there for at least the next two seasons even if the plan is scrapped partway through the season. Like Dave, it’s pretty clear who Casten’s keepers will be. The top four should provide a strong base for what is always a very powerful Munchkin offense. The middle two youngsters are more question marks as Harper could start in AAA and Heyward was really awful in 2011. Liriano is in a contract year and certainly has talent, but Casten seems resigned to keeper Harper whatever his status is. Normally, I would mock anybody even thinking of keeping a player who could possibly start the season in AAA, but this is a unique circumstance in that Casten will do all his drafting in the first eight rounds of the 2012 draft, including FIVE in the second round. He’ll have the talent to waste a spot and if any minor leaguer has ever been worth it, its Harper. His team will be an interesting case study in that he sacrificed the 2011 season very early on to put him in the best position to excel in 2012. If he doesn’t, that will be quite a disappointment. A hallmark of Casten’s teams have been a great offense, lots of pitchers (some good, many middling) and no closers. It will be interesting to see if his strategy changes. One thing is for certain – he’s going to be loaded.

Montezuma’s Revenge – Adam
Definite – 2B IKinsler TEX, SP CHamels PHI, C CSantana CLE, OF JUpton ARZ
Considerations – SP IKennedy ARZ, 1B EHosmer KC, RP CKimbrel ATL, SP JBeckett BOS, SP MMoore, TB, 3B ARamirez MIL, SS JHardy BAL
Stretch – OF CRasmus TOR, OF CBeltran STL

With only Upton remaining from the 2011 keeper group that featured such disappointments as ADunn, BPosey, DJeter, and JJohnson, this group is pretty good considering the talent was also thinned by in-season trades. As painful as it was to see ALind rip it up after trading him to One Nut for Santana, Lind ended up being mediocre and is not a keeper option now that his OF eligibility is lost. Santana meanwhile may turn into a beast especially for an OBP league. This group would be better if Kennedy had a history of productivity like 2011 and Hosmer wasn’t 22 and likely to have some ups and downs. Kimbrel, Beckett, ARam, Moore and Hardy are all guys that could help other teams as keepers, so there may be a trade here before the draft starts. Rasmus and Beltran could have great 2012s as both are in ideal situations for production, but are something short of keepers.

The Angry Pirates – Kyle
Definite – OF MStanton MIA, OF MHolliday STL, SS SCastro CHC
Considerations – 1B FFreeman ATL, SP JJohnson MIA
Stretch – OF MTrout LAA

Kyle’s got a big chip with Stanton, while Holliday and Castro are definitely solid guys. Freeman has a high ceiling and ended the season well, while Johnson may have actually been healthy late last season and the team just held off to make sure he was good for their push in 2012. But there’s not much else. Sure, Trout is a blue chip talent, but he’s going to have to have a monster spring for the Angels to keep him on the roster and would need to compete with the Morales, Trumbo, Pujols, Wells, Abreu, Bourjas, Hunter clusterfuck at five positions. The teams also signed Langerhans, indicating they’d rather have Trout in AAA then a fourth outfielder. Still, he’s the only other one I’d keep from this bunch. BBelt, GBeckham and Delmon have potential and Walker and Arencibia are serviceable but would you draft any of them in the sixth round of a standard draft? No way. This makes Kyle a strong candidate to make a trade before the draft. However, he’s only got one draft pick in the first four rounds at this point. Kyle may be the most challenged owner going into the season. A Stanton blockbuster could add picks and keeper depth, but he might regret that for a long time.
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Billy Chapel – Troy
Definite – OF HPence PHI, 3B ABeltre TEX, OF SVictorino PHI
Considerations – OF CHart MIL, 1B KMorales LAA
Stretch – 3B BLawrie TOR, SP JJurrjens ATL, SP CBuchholz BOS, SP JZimmerman WSH, RP RMadson CIN, 2B/1B/OF HKendrick LAA

Troy doesn’t have huge pieces, but there’s some nice guys here. As maligned as the trade for Weaver was, Beltre finished the season incredibly (82/32/105 in 487abs) and Morales is reportedly looking great, though tough to tell until spring training begins. Acquired in the Kinsler deal, Lawrie is the big question mark here as he was excellent at the end of the season but it was a small sample and I’d say his value is something short of the sixth round. Hard to say who will have the best season of the starters he has. Known for keeping closers, Madson is definitely a possibility here as he didn’t get the big contract he was looking for, opting for a one year deal in Cincinnati. I’d say he probably motivated to have a good season on what could be a very good team. Kendrick would be more valuable in a AVG league, but his value is enhanced by his position eligibility.

Moose is Loose – Brian
Definite – SS TTulowitzki COL, SP ZGrienke MIL, C BMcCann ATL, 2B DUggla
Consideratins – 2B/3B MYoung TEX, OF BUpton TB
Stretch – 1B ADunn CHW

Nice talent at the top here, with possibly the most valuable player in fantasy. McCann and Uggla have their flaws, but are still top guys at shallow positions. Grienke could have a very big season with a healthy year. Young is getting old and Upton is incredibly inconsistent, but Young should maintain his infield eligibility and Upton is heading into a contract year and just seems like a guy who’d focus just to get the money. Dunn’s collapse was perplexing and certainly shouldn’t be a keeper, but hard to imagine he would be that bad again; he has the potential to return to being an annual keeper as he is only 31. He also could regain OF eligibility at some point.

Ring of Fire – Dagan
Definite – 1B JVotto CIN, OF MKemp LAD, OF JBruce CIN
Considerations – 2B BZobrist TB, 3B KYoukilis BOS, SP UJimenez, UTIL DOrtiz BOS, SP RRomero TOR, SP JHellickson TB, C JMauer MIN
Stretch – SP BBeachy

Lead by Votto and Kemp, Dagan will no doubt be in the mix once again this season. But his keepers are less clear than in years past due to Youk’s injury issues, Ubaldo’s regression, Ortiz’s age and Mauer’s health. Zobrist will probably be kept due to position flexibility and all around solid production, while Romero had a great 2011 and Dagan would probably prefer him over Ubaldo given that he’s improved year after year in MLB’s toughest division. Hellboy was good, but didn’t show the K numbers you’d like from a keeper pitcher, while Beachy showed great K potential but doesn’t quite have the pedigree to give you confidence he’d continue this trend. Bruce was stolen at the end of 2011 and this could be the season he becomes the beast many expected. Mauer will be one of the most interesting players in fantasy this season. He could go anywhere in the draft, providing he’s sent back to the pool.

Colon No Like Salad – Russ
Definite – 2B RCano NYY, OF CGonzalez COL, OF JHamilton TX, SP CKershaw LAD, SP FHernandez SEA
Considerations – SP AWainwright STL, C MWeiters
Stretch – 2B JKipnis CLE, SS ARamirex CHW

Since Russ kept Wainwright on his roster for the entire 2011 season, it’s pretty clear that’s the route he will go and he has the makings for another superior pitching staff in 2012. Keeping three starters may be a bit much, but with the depth at pitching it actually may make it more important to have top producers. His threesome could easily total 100 QS and 700 ks with sub 3.00era/1.00whips. He’s also got a great start to his offense, especially with Hamilton entering a contract year. Someone might take on Weiters, but he’s more likely to be drafted in the first or second. Kipnis showed some ability and Alexei has been kept before due to his consistency, but both will be back in the pool for 2012—though its possible this is the last time Kipnis is available for the draft for quite a while.

One Nut Wonders – Jason
Definite – SS/3B HRamirez MIA, SP JWeaver LAA, OF RBraun MIL
Considerations – SP JShields TB, 2B CUtley PHI, 2B BPhillips CIN, OF AGordon KC, SP MLatos CIN, C MMontero ARZ
Stretch – OF BGardner NYY, OF AEthier LAD, SP BMorrow TOR, SP GGonzalez WSH, RP JSoria KC, RP JValverde DET, OF CQuentin SD

Jason is another one with lots of depth, but lacking a lot of top of the line guys especially with Braun likely out for a third of the season. The considerations all have their flaws as Shields and Gordon don’t have track records to support confidence that 2011 production will be repeated, Utley wasn’t the same after his injury, Phillips is solid but not great in any category, Latos was up and down and is hurt by the offseason trade to the CIN bandbox, while Montero is great value for a catcher but would you draft him in the sixth? The stretches all have potential to have huge 2012s, but I don’t think any of them warrant keeper status. Gordon could reach great heights this season and has the potential to reach the upper tier, or he could regress back to his old middling production.

Urban Achiever – Dan
Definite – SP CSabathia NYY, OF DJennings TB
Considerations – OF SChoo CLE, OF CYoung ARZ, C JMontero SEA
Stretch – 1B JMorneau MIN, 1B GSanchez MIA, 3B PAlvarez PIT, OF CLee HOU, 2B KJohnson TOR, 1B ARizzo CHC

The Achievers didn’t achieve much last season as Dan failed to capitalize on the opportunity to gain picks and improve keepers significantly after falling out of the race early. He’d be in much better shape had he dealt for some of the younger guys that weren’t having great 2011 seasons or the injured guys who were out for the year. But Jennings was a quality acquisition and played himself into keeper status. Montero will be an interesting one to watch. In SEA he’s in a tough ballpark, but will stay at C and get more abs then he would in NYY. Young and Shoo could easily prove keeper worthy but both have their shortcomings. Morneau is the wild card here and will be one to monitor during spring training. Alvarez and Rizzo are high upside young guys but haven’t proven reliable in the bigs yet, while Lee and Johnson are better than their 2011 seasons. Sanchez was awful down the stretch but is in a better lineup now.

Keepin it Real – Pierce
Definite – 2B DPedroia BOS, 3B DWright NYM, OF JEllsbury BOS, SP CLee PHI, SP JLester BOS
Considerations – SP MCain SF, 3B ARodriguez NYY, 3B PSandoval SF, SP ASanchez MIA, SP THanson ATL, SP MPineda NYY, SP CWilson LAA, SP MGarza CHC, OF ISuzuki SEA, OF JWerth WSH
Stretch – RP JWalden LAA, OF NMarkakis BAL

Last year’s champ has a strong base with which to build a team that could repeat as well as some parts to potentially trade for picks. Not hard to see how he won last year by looking at his possible keepers as his 2011 draft was exemplary. There’s some very difficult decision to be made here. He and Kyle might want to talk as they could definitely find a deal around Stanton that would make a lot of sense for both. Cain is certainly keeper worthy, but its awfully hard to pass up on ARod’s potential. While the fantasy community will likely pump up Pineda because of his win potential in NYY, for our purposes he was much better suited for SEA. Hanson is tough to peg down because of his injury but would normally be a definite keeper. Lots of options here for Pierce to potentially regain the picks he lost in the deadline deals.

Donkey Punchers – Chris
Definite – 3B JBautista TOR, SP RHalladay PHI, 1B MTeixeira NYY
Considerations – SP YGallardo MIL, C MNapoli TEX, OF CCrawford BOS, OF NCruz TEX, SP CCarpenter STL, RP HBell MIA, 1B/OF LBerkman STL
Stretch – SS DJeter NYY, 2B DAckley SEA, SP SMarcum MIL

Chris also has some parts that would improve the keepers of some other teams and still leave him with an excellent six. If Cruz was reliable, he’d be a definite, while you have to question Crawford’s bad 2011 and Berkman’s excellent 211. Gallardo would be tough not to keep, while Napoli may be the best fantasy catcher in the game. Carp is getting a bit long in the tooth and Bell is a reliever, while Jeter plays short (he ultimately had a pretty decent 2011), Ackley had a good season but lacks excellent potential in any one category, and Marcum was up and down. Still, plenty to like and Chris will definitely have a high-end starting six to begin 2012 with Bautista, Halladay and Tex leading the way.