With my continual efforts to not think about the football season that was lost, I have created for you the first ever draft preview. Major league teams have more or less finalized their rosters – at least from a fantasy relevance standpoint – and, while I acknowledge our league has a few things to decide that could impact these rankings (namely expansion and how it would be handled), it never hurts to get people thinking and perhaps provoke some debate. So here you go. As always, your feedback is most welcomed.
Montezuma’s Revenge (7th) – Adam
Shoe-ins: Adam Dunn, Justin Upton, Buster Posey, Josh Johnson
Overall: Adam’s willingness to trade his stars during last season’s unsuccessful playoff diluted his team and left him without a top 20 player. The roster is deep, but a little light up top. The Upton trade in the offseason is the difference from his keepers being poor to pretty good.
Dilemma: The fifth and sixth spots are going to be mediocre no matter how you look it. Options include Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, Carlos Pena, Derek Jeter, Hunter Pence, and Tori Hunter. Jeter, Haren and Pena are all looking to bounce back from bad seasons, while Pence and Hunter are solid but unspectacular anywhere.
X-Factor (Likely won’t be kept, but owner may wish they had by the end of the season): Dominic Brown – The youngster will be a star, it’s just a matter of when.
Grade: C+
CC’s Black Mamba (2nd) – Russ
Shoe-ins: Robinson Cano, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday
Overall: This team would have more shoe-ins if it wasn’t so damn deep. The list of keeper-worthy players includes CC Sabathia, David Price, Clay Buchholz, Adrian Beltre, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Stanton – making Russ the most likely candidate to do some sort of deal before the draft to get another star in exchange for a couple of these studs. Russ did an excellent job getting to the playoffs and flourishing without having to trade off some of his studs like Cano and CarGo.
Dilemma: Which pitcher to keep? CC is the most solid, Price is one of the best young pitchers in the game, but Kershaw might put up better numbers than both. And do you keep a youngster who will likely have some growing pains in Stanton or do you keep Beltre, who plays at a thin position and is now in Texas. Or do you keep both hitters and leave all the pitchers? One for the rest of the league to track, especially those with high picks.
X-Factor: Stephen Strasburg – What a debut and what a disappointing way to go out. Will be interested to see if he stays on a roster all season.
Grade: A
Ring of Fire (6th) – Dagan
Shoe-ins: Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, Joe Mauer, Kevin Youkilis
Overall: A quality lineup of keepers with some positional qualities (a catcher and Youk at third) and a top 5 stud in Votto. Kemp had a down year, but is still a top outfield talent who may do better under new management. Other keeper possibilities are pretty limited outside of Ubaldo Jiminez and Francisco Liriano--the most likely to fill the final two spots, though Brett Gardner had some real value and Aubrey Huff had a great year.
Dilemma: Keep two pitchers? There’s a lot of depth at pitcher this year, but I don’t see anyway Ubaldo or Liriano make it out of the first round if they’re left in, while Gardner will probably go in the third round.
X-Factor: Johan Santana – Doesn’t make much sense to keep him since he’ll miss half the year, but he’s been kept every year and could easily come back his old self
Grade: B+
Cowhide Joyride (10th) – Dave
Shoe-ins: Josh Hamilton, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Zimmerman, Tim Lincecum, Mark Reynolds, Grady Sizemore.
Overall: Dave did a good job upgrading his keepers after giving up on the season pretty earlier. This is a quality group with power and a power pitcher, though Sizemore brings some injury risk and Hamilton always has something hurting. Reynolds had an off year but will be in the middle of an underrated Orioles lineup and Weeks is playing with the hopes of securing a big contract.
Dilemma: No real dilemmas here. You could make a case for Alexei Ramirez’s position and Gordon Beckham upside, but you’d probably be overthinking it.
X-Factor: Beckham – A keeper last year and may be again for a long time after this season.
Grade: B
Moose is Loose (1st – Champion) – Brian
Shoe-ins: Troy Tulowitski, Justin Morneau, Kendry Morales, Brian McCann
Overall: Some nice depth here and interesting options. As good as they were, Casey McGehee, David Ortiz, Michael Young, and Ichiro Suzuki are almost impossible to keep. Dan Uggla may also find himself off the roster if Brian decides to keep Shin-Soo Choo, and Adam Wainwright. Some tough decisions to make here. I assume Morales makes the cut, as Brian had him eating an IR spot all season. Another one that will have a big impact on the first round (or a future expansion team).
Dilemma: Stud four-category pitcher, five-category outfielder, or the most prolific power-hitting second baseman since Jeff Kent?
X-Factor: Austin Jackson – says he’s stealing 40 this year, scored 103 runs with a very respectable .345 obp for a rookie.
Grade: A-
Donkey Punchers (4th) – Chris
Shoe-ins: Carl Crawford, Jose Bautista, Prince Fielder
Overall: There will definitely be the remnants of Chris’s team littered throughout the first rounds of the draft. Options for the final three spots include Zach Grienke, Ian Kinsler, Chris Young, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Matt Latos, Roy Oswalt, and Vlad Guerrero. Never a fan of keeping closer, but if anyone is worth it, it’s Carlos Marmol and his 138 strikeouts. Fielder in contract year is a good thing for Chris.
Dilemma: The problem here is banking on guys like Young and Bautista, who had such good years you almost have to keep them. But they’ve never had seasons like that before, which has to have Chris considering a phrase he’s very familiar with - “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”
X-Factor: Adam Jones – Is this the year he puts it all together with a 30/30 campaign?
Grade: B-
Grumpy Munchkins (3rd) – Casten
Shoe-ins: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Andrew McCutchen, and Jason Heyward
Overall: You don’t need to go much further than Pujols and Ramirez to realize Casten has an excellent chance starting the season. ARod bring value to a thin third base position and two stud young outfielders who are both likely to put up even better numbers this year. A notable statistic - ARod actually had the lowest OBP of all the shoe-ins at .341, which is not shabby and below his career average. Not quite the level of his keepers last year, but close.
Dilemma: Pretty simple - Cliff Lee or Justin Verlander? I assume Casten has moved on from Weiters and though Konerko and Kelly Johnson had incredible seasons, neither belongs with this group.
X-Factor: Neil Walker – The guy came up after being dicked around in the minors as Pittsburgh tried to make him a catcher, but he could always hit. He could put up surprising statistics in the middle of a young but talented Pittsburgh top of the lineup – Tabata, Walker, McCutchen, and Alvarez.
Grade: A+
Angry Pirates (9th) – Kyle
Shoe-ins: Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Brandon Phillips
Overall: For a team that seemingly spent last season planning for this season, it didn’t show in his keepers. Carlos Santana, Lance Berkman, Jose Valverde, Nefalti Feliz, Brian Matusz, BJ Upton, Billy Butler, Gio Gonzalez are all pretty good, but should probably be left for the draft. What he really lacks is a clear number one stud. Definitely the worst group of keepers in the league and it’s not really close.
Dilemma: Where does Feliz fit in? Is he a starter or a closer? If he’s a starter, he’s not proven he can hold up over the course of a season. If he’s a closer, well, he’s a closer. Are either versions a keeper?
X-Factor: Tyler Colvin – With regular at bats he could hit 90/30/90/20, but he’s still young, unproven, and strikes out a lot.
Grade: D
One Nut Wonders (5th) – Jason
Shoe-ins: Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rios, Jose Reyes, Aramis Ramirez
Overall: Where Casten’s keepers are top-heavy, Jason’s are deep and just as good. Not only are they of high quality, but they address thin positions of 2B, 3B, and SS with some proven vets. Reyes could be huge this year as he awaits a new contract. There’s some other guys here worth noting, particularly Jayson Werth and Mike Napoli following his recent trade to Toronto, and maybe Brett Anderson, but my guess is they’re left off as Jason was emphatic last year that Aramis was a keeper.
Dilemma: Not much controversy here. Doesn’t really make sense to keep Werth with Braun and Rios already kept. He’s keeping no pitchers, but there’s none really worth keeping anyway.
X-Factor – Adam Lind – Could bounce back in a big way.
Grade: A+
Billy Chapel (12th) – Troy
Shoe-ins: Felix Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo, Jered Weaver, Corey Hart
Overall: For a team that finished 68 games out of first, there’s not a lot of talent on the hitting side worth keeping. The controversial offseason trade of Justin Upton leaves Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, Nick Swisher, Shane Victorino, Aaron Hill, and Corey Hart as good, but not great, options. Troy will certainly have a tremendous pitching staff, but there’s a lot holes to fill almost all of his best hitters outfielder. There’s also the question of Mariano Rivera with Troy’s history of keeping closers.
Dilemma: Trade some pitching for a non-OF keeper?
X-Factor: Stubbs – Will he regress or be a perennial 30/30 club member?
Grade: C-
Prestige Worldwide (8th) – Lars
Shoe-ins: Roy Halladay, Evan Longoria, Adrian Gonzalex, Victor Martinez, Jay Bruce, Andre Ethier
Overall: Lars’ keepers may be the most obvious of any team, though I wonder if he’ll pass on Ethier’s solidness for Jimmy Rollins’ position scarcity. But nothing about Rollins’ 2010 screams keeper. Brian Roberts is another guy with a good history, shallow position, and a injured 2010. Max Scherzer and Shaun Marcum are good options, but not keepers.
Dilemma: None really.
X-Factor: Scherzer – If he builds on last year, he could lead the league in Ks and be a keeper for many years.
Grade: A
Keepin it Real (11th) – Pierce
Shoe-ins: Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester
Overall: There are some good options here with Pablo Sandoval, Martin Prado, Jacoby Ellsbury, Tommy Hanson, and Carlos Quentin. Cabrera and Wright are the keys here and have been for a while for Pierce. The question is whether he can build around them effectively. There’s enough here to provide a firm base for Pierce to have a bounce back season.
Dilemma: Are Quentin or Ellsbury worth the injury concern or should he take a risk on a slimmed down KungFu Panda?
X-Factor: Brandon Webb – After two lost seasons, he’s an unknown and pitching in Texas. But if he can return to old form, he’s a certain future keeper.
Grade: A-
