Trade Review: Montezuma and Keepin

Montezumas receives:
SP Cliff Lee PHI
SP RA Dickey NYM
16th rounder
21st rounder

Keeping it Real
SP Chris Sale CHW
SP Roy Oswalt TEX
8th rounder
15th rounder

Quite the little blockbuster here, where I managed to grab the #3 overall player in fantasy and a consensus top 5 starter to begin the season in Dickey and Cliff Lee. Its funny reading the fantasy “experts” talk about Dickey because even those with impressive statistical chops have no clue what to do with him because no one has ever done it before like him. Whatever he’s doing, he’s feeling it and I’m counting on that continuing for the rest of the season. It’s funny because Dickey’s underlying numbers from 2011 were among those that stood out when I was ranking before the season (decent xFip, 69% QS%), but I couldn’t get over my anti-knuckleballing bias and draft him. Lee hasn’t played to his capability, but he’s still really good and I expect will improve down the stretch. I like young hurlers and the prospect of finding the next 250k young flamethrower as much as anyone, but stable veterans really make for more consistent returns. The staff of CHamels, CLee, JPeavy, JJohnson, RDickey, JMcDonald, THudson, CLewis, CCapuano, and HBailey could be a wrecking ball going forward. As of now I think I’ve done a nice job improving my roster without doing too much damage to 2013 (net loss is my  8, 9, and 13 for a 17, 19, and 21)

Pierce gets Sale, who has pitched better than Lee so far this season, but will not likely be viewed as a better keeper going into 2013. Still, Pierce might’ve gotten in on the ground floor of a potential mega star. There was an injury concern earlier in the season, which lead to the brief anointment as closer, but the MRI proved fine. He’s performed at an elite level, at a young age, and in a tough ballpark, but he probably only will have 60-70 innings left this season (though no formal cap has been announced), so it would’ve been tough to keep him if I made the playoffs. Meanwhile, Oswalt may be a smart pickup because he has the name recognition that, even with a smidgen of success, he could yield another pick for Pierce. Tough, tough park for him though and it gets worse in the summer, so it remains to be seen what type of returns are in store. They were uncertain enough that I was fine moving on from him even though I had him eating  a roster spot for a month.