2022 Draft Review

 ROUND 7

Best: OF Tyler ONeill STL (Grit B&B) – There’s a lot of swing and miss and not enough walks, but if there was one potential 5-category contributor in their mid-20s with a chance to be a fantasy star, it’s ONeill.

Runner-Up: SP Shane McClanahan TB (Donkey) – Soooo many pitchers taken early, but the one I feel most confident in being kept for the next five years, it’s this guy. I’m a big McClanafan. 

Worst: C Will Smith LAD (Ex-Presidents) – Theoretically it sort of makes sense given that his 162 avg is 92/35/106/4/.363 and he’s 27 and there’s a DH. But this is the Dodgers are gonna Dodger and give him the customary time off, while sporting a deep roster of guys to put in the DH spot.  Probably looking at number similar to last year, which are great… for a catcher… and not in the first round.

Runner-Up: P Shohei Ohtani-Pitcher LAA (Knuckle) – He’ll be good when he’s there, but he won’t always be. Knuckle kept four SPs and have a lineup anchored by a potential one hit wonder (Mullins) and a 3-cat ho-hummer (Castellanos).

X-Factor: 1B/3B Spencer Torkelson DET (Montezuma’s) – I was going hitter the whole way and the only one I would’ve taken over Tork is ONeill. As ready of a prospect as we will ever see with big four-category potential for the next decade.

--------

ROUND 8

Best: 1B/OF Kyle Shwarber PHI (One Nut) – Honestly, couldn’t have gone to a better spot this side of Colorado. Perfect fit for that lineup and he’s a surefire four category guy.  

Runner-Up: SP Charlie Morton ATL (Ex-Presidents) – Nine SP picked to this point and everyone might’ve missed the best one. By underlying metrics, there were none better last year. 

Worst: OF Jo Adell LAA (Freedom) – I had my eye on him too, but this is just too early for the amount of risk included. 

Runner-Up: SP Jack Flaherty STL (One Nut) – Someone had to take him, but it wasn’t going to be me… at least not in the second round. This would be “worst” if Jason didn’t have so many early picks to burn. 

X-Factor: SS Adalberto Mondesi KC (Montezuma’s) – I feel so much less confident in this one than the first X factor. But with Tatis out for a while, at least I got SBs out of the way. Still, with two rookies now and a long-term injury already on the roster, the floor of a sub-.200 part-time injury prone player may be fool hearty. 

--------

ROUND 9

Best: SP Logan Gilbert SEA (Angry Pirates) – Again, a crazy amount of SPs taken at this point – 19 of 36 picks! - but one of the best ceiling/floor/long-term keeper takes in the draft was Gilbert. I think he’s a potential ace, but at worst he’s a fine SP4. 

Runner-Up: OF Seiya Suzuki (Tomahawk) – Really was surprised he didn’t go closer to the first given the hype. This isn’t Hae-Soeng Kim coming over from the KBO. The Nippon League is legit competition and he has the looks of at least a fine 80/25/80/10/.340 player for the next 5 years. 

Worst: SP Noah Syndergaard LAA (Brokeback) – There isn’t much of a case for Thor going this high outside of name value. He could be good, but he’s had one season of 180 IP, 200 K, sub-3.00/1.20 and that was six years ago.

Runner-Up: 1B Joey Votto CIN (Angry Pirates) – I know last season was great, but there were three straight season where he had 15 HR or less before that. 

X-Factor: OF Christian Yelich MIL (Montazuma’s) – Like Mondesi, the range of outcomes here is quite high. 

--------

ROUND 10

Best: SP John Means BAL (Angry Pirates) – A lot of bad luck went into last year’s numbers. Assuming that normalizes, the dramatic change in ballpark dimensions could make Means a top 30 arm. 

Runner-Up: OF Austin Meadows DET (Grit B&B) – Even before the trade, which occurred minutes before this selection, it’s a little absurd to let a 30 HR/100 RBI bat fall this hard. Sure the platoon splits are there, but that also makes it pretty easy to know when to start him.

Worst: SP Michael Kopech CHW (Cowhide) – Always loved the talent, the player is a bit of an unreliable headcase and seems to be the type of person his old school manager hates most. On a per-inning basis, he should be pretty good but QSs will be hard to come by.

Runner-Up: SP Tarik Skubal DET (Napalm) – The arm is special, but the HR rate is uniquely terrible. It just means volatility will be part of his profile until that changes. 

X-Factor: OF/C Daulton Varsho ARI (Freedom) – This is an early catcher I can get behind, with unique blend of speed, power, and advanced approach, topped off with C eligibility in a season where he likely won’t see one start there. 

--------

ROUND 11

Best: SP Patrick Sandoval LAA (Ring) – I love Sandoval, but missed out on him in every league I’m in. There’s just a lot of clean underlying numbers that hint at potential ace this season.  

Runner-Up: SS Dansby Swanson ATL (Knuckle) – He’s boring, sure, but that’s a lot of value at this point in the draft. 

Worst: SP Stephen Strasburg WAS (Brokeback) – I’m hopeful and even slightly optimistic at a rebound, but there’s no way I’d call him a top 150 fantasy value this season. 

Runner-Up: 3B Justin Turner LAD (Brokeback) – I know he’s a solid bat, and maybe he’s boosted by the DH spot, by he’s 38 and last year was the first time he reached 500 abs since he was 32.

X-Factor: 3B Yoan Moncada CHW (Cowhide) – I believe in the talent, the pedigree, and the COVID excuse, but at some point seeing is believing. Maybe the Sale for Moncada/Kopech deal just wasn’t as big as we thought at the time.

--------

ROUND 12

Best: SP Shane Baz TB (Montezuma’s) – In H2H, you really just need to be good enough to make the playoffs and then hope for the best. Baz’s surgery was to remove loose bodies, not fix a tendon or muscle. So recovery is expected to be relatively easy. He might not be here til mid June, but TB was going to keep his innings low anyway.  

Runner-Up: SP Anthony DeSclafani SF (Grit B&B) – Tony Disco is perpetually underappreciated, but if he can stay healthy for 180 ip he’s an easy 170K 3.80/1.20.

Worst: SP Hyun Jin Ryu TOR (Donkey) – To be clear, I don’t hate the pick in what was a very solid round. But he didn’t get much of a warm-up in the spring and didn’t look good when he did. Given the injury history, its hard to trust him. 

Runner-Up: SP Kyle Gibson PHI (Moose) – Again, about where he should be picked, but his numbers fell off once he went to Philly and that defense got even worse.

X-Factor: SP Hunter Greene CIN (Brokeback) – After picking a bunch of old boring guys, Watson picks perhaps the most exciting and potentially maddening player available. Huge arm, huge risk. 

--------

ROUND 13

Best: SP Jesus Luzardo MIA (Brokeback) – Hard to take much from spring training, but if you’re going to take anything, sudden rises in MPH among high pedigree SPs is the thing. Great pick here. 

Runner-Up: OF Dylan Carlson STL (Knuckle) – News that DC was going to be the new leadoff hitter in front Goldy/Arenado/ONeill is all you need to know. But the high pedigree and steady improvement just makes this potential keeper even better. 

Worst: SP Trevor Bauer LAD (Donkey) – I was just out this year. Maybe it’ll come back to bite me, but we all saw what black balling did to Kaepernick. He’ll get another shot somewhere someday, but I wasn’t about to spend a lot to guess when. 

Runner-Up: RP Liam Hendricks CHW (Donkey) – Fucking relievers.

X-Factor: OF Marcell Ozuna ATL (Napalm) – Never known as the hardest of workers, it makes you wonder what a year in purgatory did to a historically volatile hitter. Payoff could be huge, or he could waiver wire fodder.

--------

ROUND 14

Best: SS CJ Abrams SD – It was looking pretty clear he was going to make the opening day roster, so I loved this pick at this point in the draft. Easy speed with some pop. A whole lot of prospect risk, but the payoff could be huge at a point in the draft where people are often clinging to safety.  

Runner-Up: SP Alex Cobb SF – The stuff has always been there, but now the velo is up and he’s in the SP rehab center of Major League Baseball. Solid with upside. 

Worst: RP Aroldis Chapman NYY – I mean, he’s an RP, but he’s also showing signs of the wheels getting looser each season. His 1.31 WHIP was the first time he exceeded 1.15 in a decade.

Runner-Up: RP Craig Kimbrel LAD – See above.

X-Factor: SP Yusei Kikuchi TOR – Hard to know what to expect from this guy given the wide range of outcomes so far and streakiness. TOR certainly wasn’t the best spot for him, but there’s a potential 180K starter there. 

--------

ROUND 15

Best: SP Alex Wood SF (Cowhide) – Wood has shown the ability to be a start when he’s healthy—and he is, and his velo is up. Strong buy here.  

Runner-Up: 1B Bobby Dalbec BOS (Freedom) – It was a tale of two season for Bobby last year. The part after Schwarber was on the team made Bobby look like  perennial 80/40/90/5/.330 guy. The one before that made him look like Rob Deer. I like the chance of him holding the latter profile. 

Worst: OF Michael Conforto FA (Brokeback) – We didn’t know everything about his issues like we do now, but we knew he was talented and didn’t have a team, so it's hard to justify hanging onto him here – especially since he can’t go on the IL without a team. 

Runner-Up: C Keibert Ruiz WAS (Ex-Presidents) – The pick is not bad as selecting a player without a team, but getting a second catcher (and one with a pretty mediocre fantasy profile) is just perplexing. 

X-Factor: 3B/SS Eugenio Suarez SEA (Montezuma’s) – Last year was uniquely awful, but even if he splits the difference with the previous two seasons, this has the potential for outsized gains.

--------

ROUND 16

Best: SS Oneil Cruz PIT (Ex-Presidents) – If you’re going NA at this point, it should be for a guy who showed something when he was up already and would’ve gone 8 rounds earlier if he made the team out of spring training. Volatile profile, but big talent.  

Runner-Up: 2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux LAD (Montezuma’s) – Once Pollock got dealt, the only thing standing between Lux and regular ABs was himself and he improved as last season wore down. Big post-hype sleeper here. 

Worst: SP Eric Lauer MIL (Tomahawk) – There’s just nothing exceptional in the profile, but there is something exceptional nipping at his heals in the rotation (Ashby).

Runner-Up: SS Brendan Rodgers COL (Ex-Presidents) – I actually don’t hate the pick and was even looking at him around this time, I just can’t ever find statistical support for what made him such a big prospect. 

X-Factor: SP Mitch Keller PIT (Tomahawk) – Speaking of post-hype sleepers, it’s hard not to get excited about a pitcher with pedigree that add 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason. However, the space between the ceiling and the floor could fit a small country.

--------

ROUND 17

Best: SP Drew Rasmussen TB (Ring) – Love the overall profile, but don’t love him being in TB, where it requires an act of Congress to allow a SP to go six innings.  

Runner-Up: TIE RP Edwin Diaz NYM (Tomahawk) & RP Kenley Jensen ATL (Napalm) – Good example of what we wait for RPs in S+H leagues. Hendricks went four rounds before, but likely won’t have any more SHs than these two. 

Worst: 3B Patrick Wisdom CHC (Napalm) – He had his moments last year, but was very streaky and CHC is rebuilding so they don’t have much reason to let a 31 yo has been play through a 3 for 40 streak. 

Runner-Up: SP Zach Eflin PHI (Cowhide) – Not a horrible pick, but guys like Gonsloin, Pivetta, Cortes, Wright offered better upside with just as much risk. 

X-Factor: 1B/OF Connor Joe COL (Freedom) – Interesting player I wouldn’t care much about outside of Colorado, but he’s got sneaky 80/25/80/.370 potential .

--------

ROUND 18

Best: OF Andrew Benintendi KC (Angry Pirates) – Pretty boring from a fantasy perspective, but he’s a very solid OF3 and could run even more this season.  

Runner-Up: 1B Brandon Belt SF (Ex-President) – I sure would love to see a health season from Belt this year because if you take 2020-21 production combined you get 90/38/89/3/.390 in 475 abs. 

Worst: OF Jarren Duran BOS (Cowhide) – Until we see what we’ve seen the last two springs show up in the regular season, he seems like a longshot to make an impact. One of those guys I could see putting it all together in four years, but on some other team. 

Runner-Up: SP Merrill Kelly ARI (Moose) – Velo is up, but there’s a reason this guy gets bounced around fantasy teams all season. He’s just never consistent enough to roster for long periods.

X-Factor: OF Hunter Renfroe MIL (Angry Pirates) – The range of outcomes for this guy is perhaps as extreme as it gets for a MLB regular. That means some amazing streaks on both extremes. 

--------

ROUND 19

Best: C Alejandro Kirk TOR (Brokeback) – Love the hit tool, love the DH hole, love the love TOR shows him. Could get full time ABs in a great lineup this year. 

Runner-Up: RP Giovanny Gallegos STL (Angry Pirates) – I get the hesitancy to draft him among the top 10 RPs in a saves league, but his fall here doesn’t make much sense. 

Worst: SP Kris Bubic KC (Knuckle) – I don’t see any value beyond the fact that you can call him Booby-C. 

Runner-Up: SP MacKenzie Gore SD (Freedom) – Given the struggles last season, this is not the guy I would fill my lone NA spot with.

X-Factor: SP Nestor Cortes NYY (Freedom) – I was bummed and relieved not to get him. His numbers looks like a legit fantasy SP, but he looks like a legit Mario brother. 

--------

ROUND 20

Best: SP Marco Gonzalez SEA (Moose) – It ain’t sexy, but it’s productive as hell in a QS league.  

Runner-Up: RP Blake Treinen LAD (One Nut) – This guy might lead the league in S+H… and here he is in the 20th.

Worst: C Christian Vazquez BOS (Knuckle) – I’m 1000% certain at this point that the 66/23/72/4/.320 guy we saw in 2019 is the outlier and the 51/6/49/8/.308 we saw in 2021 is more of what to expect… you know… minus all the random steals. 

Runner-Up: SS Tyler Wade LAA (Tomahawk) – He’s been in the league for five years and his cumulative line is 81/6/33/30/.300 in 461 abs. I don’t expect Maddon will suddenly make him a regular or that he’d do much with it if he was to become one. 

X-Factor: 1B Keston Hiura MIL (Brokeback) – Milwaukee just seems to breed extreme outcomes for hitters. I would love to see his spring training stats translate to the lineup, but it’s hard to withstand any slow spells for a guy without a glove. 

--------

ROUND 21

Best: OF Tommy Pham CIN (Angry Pirates) – I always have a soft spot for Pham, but I LOVE him in Cincinnati. Power, speed, patience combos like this aren’t typically found in the 21st. 

Runner-Up: RP Corey Knebel PHI (Freedom) – I love this landing spot for Knebel and think he has as much a shot to accumulate 40 S+H as any pitcher. 

Worst: C Travis Darnaud ATL (Grit B&B) – The days of him as an uber prospect have long past and left a total of one season with a line of at least 50/15/50/0/.300. It’s time to come to terms that he’s 33 and just kinda sucks most of the time. 

Runner-Up: RP David Bednar PIT (Ex-Presidents) – If you’re not going to wait to pick up a bullpen until after the draft it’s important to at least pick up RPs on teams that win games. S+H can’t happen when there isn’t a lead to save or hold. 

X-Factor: OF Ian Happ CHC (Moose) – The only thing assured in life is that Ian Happ will play like a top 20 player for 200 abs out of the season and a minor league bench player for 200 more abs, with another 200 abs of mediocrity in between. 

--------

ROUND 22

Best: SP Grayson Rodriguez BAL (Ex-Presidents) – Now this is an effective use of an NA spot. Pretty sure he’s at least an SP4 as soon as he’s up, which shouldn’t be long.  

Runner-Up: SS Bryson Stott PHI (Angry Pirates) – Hard to say how much he’ll play, but Bohm and Didi aren’t so entrenched that he can’t overtake either of them with solid play. This isn’t a star, but the profile is one of a top 15 fantasy player at his position at peak. Maybe it starts sooner rather than later? 

Worst: 2B Vidal Brujan TB (Ring) – Like the player, hate the team. Given his issues as a hitter, I’m not sure how he ever carves out regular time at 2B or OF in TB, so it’s a wasted pick essentially. The talent is there, but I don’t see the opportunity coming. 

Runner-Up: RP Gregory Soto DET (One Nut) – One of those picks that makes sense in a traditional Saves league, but here it looks like you’re just baking in a blow up or two per week. There were plenty of safer options out there. 

X-Factor: SP Andrew Heaney LAD (One Nut) – I swore off him this year, even though his team situation couldn’t be much better. He has just been so prone to the occasional, completely unpredictable blowup, that I don’t have the stomach for it anymore. But he still has the stuff and control.

--------

ROUND 23 

Best: 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn CHW (Freedom) – Man, Larussa is the freaking worst. I hate everything about how he’s been used. Hopefully he settles into a regular position now, but it’s hard to be confident.

Runner-Up: SP Garret Whitlock BOS (Cowhide) – Every year, one player reminds us that we should draft for talent, not position. Whitlock may be the guy this year.

Worst: SP Domingo German NYY (Napalm) – I can’t wait to pick him up off the wire for a spot start in August and hate myself for doing so. 

Runner-Up: C Joey Bart SF (Ex-President) – Know what your immense dearth of starting pitching didn't need at this point in the draft? A third catcher. 

X-Factor: 2B Cavan Biggio TOR (Napalm) – I don’t know what to think of this guy anymore. He looked like a surefire 80/20/80/20/.360 guy a year ago and now I’m not even sure he plays every day. I’d love for him to get a shot, but hard to argue with the reasoning not to let him. 

--------

ROUND 24 

Best: Everything JED - Jed traded so much capital to improve keepers and he really made the most of the picks he got sent back in return:

SS Anthony Volpe NYY (Donkey) – Given Yahoo’s rigid structure, the NA spot really needs to be dedicated to someone you think you can put right into your lineup once they’re up. Volpe may be the best option in baseball given his lack of proximity but potential promise for late season or next. 

OF Jesus Sanchez MIA (Donkey) – Sanchez had more ups than downs last year after he crushed the minors most of last year. He has no one keeping him from full time ABs and the hard hit data shows he could blossom. 

2B Kolten Wong MIL (Donkey) – MIL has a good lineup and Wong is right on top of it, making this pick 100/15/60/20/.340 in the bank. I loved this pick. 

OF Andrew McCutchen (Donkey) – What did Cutch ever do to deserve this kind of treatment? Just give you 78/27/80/6/.334 and zero reason to think he can’t do it again. Shame on us all!

Worst: Everyone who isn’t JED. 

X-Factor: SP Nick Martinez SD (Moose) – He crushed overseas and add like 4 mph since he couldn’t cut it on the Rangers staff a few years ago. He wouldn’t be the first player to transform overseas, so sign me up as interested in what he’s bringing back to the states.  

--------

2022 H&T Pre-Draft Rankings

 

Pre-Draft Rankings! Unlike previous years where I graded each keeper individually, I've simply used Yahoo's rankings to grade the keepers here. Much to my dismay, the rankings didn't like me swapping Trout for JRod and they definitely didn't like Tatis' injury (dropped from #1 to #102).  But this is probably a pretty accurate ranking of the opportunities for the 2022 season at this point as Jason has 6 picks in the first two rounds and a very solid group of keepers to boot.  Obviously, Yahoo's grades don't factor in keeperability so any young players with questionable playing time will take a hit. 

Keepers ranked outside the top 100 included:

• Fernando Tatis Jr. 102
• Bobby Witt Jr. 103
• Rhys Hoskins 108
• Max Muncy 114
• Pablo López 124
• Clayton Kershaw 135
• Jarred Kelenic 146
• Joey Gallo 149
• Chris Sale 167
• Julio Rodriguez 296

BUT that's why they play the games, so they say...

DRAFT is Monday 4/4, promptly at 830 pm. We really can't draft any later than that as we still need time for the first round of waivers, which I've temporarily set at one day (usually two days). I will turn it back after the first round. This will mean you will want to place waiver claims on Tuesday after the draft, which will process Wednesday. Then it'll be open season on the free agents in time for opening day on Thursday. 

Gibby has graciously set up a Zoom for the draft. This was a lot of fun last year so try to make it this year if you can

Join Zoom Meeting
https://success.zoom.us/j/93683840983?pwd=ZDcxY3cxOHB0YkQ4YlZueE1KMEUzZz09

Meeting ID: 936 8384 0983
Passcode: 293027
One tap mobile
+16468769923,,93683840983# US (New York)
+16699006833,,93683840983# US (San Jose)

High & Tight Update

 

Its week 16 and we are just a week and a half from the start of the open trading period, so I thought it would be a good time to do an update on the league. It's been amazing to have a pretty normal season. COVID is still here, but it hasn't shut down teams for weeks at a time and hopefully you too have been able to catch a live game this season. Hopefully collective bargaining doesn't cause a hiccup in 2022 because that could be disastrous for long-term interest in MLB.  

It's really been a great season with some amazing, historical performances - whether it s the record number of no hitters, Shohei Fever, or the emergence of young players and surprises like Adolis Garcia. Doesn't hurt that the Sox are amazing and a lot of fun to watch. What a difference a year makes.

Fees 

Most people have not paid. So far, Dave and Chad are all set. Please everyone else pay via Paypal in the next week or so - adrok71@yahoo.com. 

Everyone owes $100 beside Gibby ($130) and Jason ($115) due to last and second to last place finishes in 2020.

Rankings 

Sorry for the lack of Real Rankings. It's been particularly challenging to find time for everything Id like to. I hope that will change before next season. 

See above. There's some very interesting and considerable differences between performance and their place in the actual standings. The most prominent is Jason, who is on the outside looking in at the playoffs right now, but who has produced the second best stats of any team. That's quite a bit of bad luck. This stuff tends to even out over the course of a season, but we have had teams be way off for one reason or another. Chad also has a much worse record than performance suggests. That is a little more palatable when you look at the average performance in total as Chad is the first in a massive group of teams comprising half the league with an average between 6.0 and 6.9. This has played out in real life too as the standings behind Montezumas has fluctuated considerably all season. 

So, who is selling and who is buying? Gibby has been working on his rebuild for a while now and has accumulated a nice group of young players. Dagan is talking deals too. Shomphe is in the middle of building a house and selling a house with 4 kids, but seems primed to go into rebuild mode too when trading opens up. Everyone else has a shot to be in the top 8. But open trading can be appealing.

Open Trading

The trade deadline is Thurs 8/19. I have no clue why I only had Thursdays as options, but that's what we have (it's usually a Sunday) and I can't change it. So that mean open trading period start on Thurs 8/5 at 12:01 am -- 10 days from now.

Reminder: "The open trading period will take place two weeks prior to the trading deadline, when teams may trade up to two future picks in Rounds 7-10. There is no limit on the number of picks a team may receive."

If you're selling a top performer, it may behoove you to announce on Slack or on the Yahoo message board.

Chat Forums

Will be interested in looking at changing the messaging platforms. I have two leagues that use GroupMe and they tend to be a lot more active. It's a bit more logical and user friendly than Slack I think, but would be interest in hearing others opinions. 

Payout

Regular season champion: 25% of total prize pool

Playoff champion: 50% of total prize pool

2nd place (playoffs):  25% of total prize pool

2nd place (regular season):   $100

Reminders

Please continue to playout the season even after Open Trading. If you see someone not setting lineups on a regular basis, please reach out. Repeat offenders will be fined. 

We are limited to 60 free agent/wire pickups during the regular season. Some people are getting up there, so plan accordingly. You get 3 pickups/week during the playoffs. 

Trades are processed the morning after they are executed by the teams. I cannot execute a trade immediately, even if you ask nice. 

2021 Draft Review

Round 7

Best: OF Randy Arozarena TB (Moose) – I know everyone was focused on starting pitching, but this is a unique young talented prospect with playing time that you rarely find available in the draft. His historic postseason performance alone changed him from waiver wire fodder and a late pick to a legend and a surefire keeper for years to come.

Runner-up: SP Zac Gallen ARI (Donkey) – Hindsight is 20/20 and this was a highly unusual circumstance given how little we know of the injury at the time, but gotta give props to Jed for taking a risk. Looks like it will payoff handsomely, possibly for years to come.

Worst: OF Nick Castellanos CIN (One Nut) – Nit picky as most first rounders were chalk, but this is an example of when Yahoo rankings aren’t quite accurate. At 29, with a lifetime 162-game average of 77/23/85/2/.324, Casty doesn’t have any standout skills and doesn’t even walk at a good rate or contribute to SBs. Give me Gallo’s career 89/41/89/7/.330 at two years younger and a round later… or Sano… or Franmil… or Kepler…

Runner-up:  SP Zach Wheeler PHI (Cowhide) – I don’t really have a problem here; he’s just the worst of the first round SPs. I’d like him a lot more if his K/9 didn’t drop to 6.7 last year, but for someone with a lot of high picks it makes sense for Dave to start with stability.

X Factor:  3B Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT (Montezumas) – When I traded into the first, I was fully planning to take an SP, but everyone I was considering was taken. Hayes reminds me a bit of Lindor, who was supposedly a defense-first prospect, then came up and never stopped hitting. The 2020 production in 24 games amounts to a 107/32/69/6/.442 season. That’s a pretty small sample, but not insignificant. Unfortunately he’s on PIT too. Lots of risk here.

 

Round 8

Best: OF Joey Gallo TEX (Montezumas) – The overall body of work in 2020 wasn’t great, but it’s important to view all 2020 stats in the context provided. When you take 2019-20 rate of production over 600 abs, it’s a superb 88/37/86/7/.351 line. And he’s still just 27! If the dead ball is real, mashers may be super valuable again.

Runner-up: UT Nelson Cruz MIN (Donkey) – In every sport, there are examples of players who defy age—and Cruz’s job is cushier than most of them.  Even at 40, sitting on the bench and getting up five times to crush balls and jot around the bags isn’t going to cause a lot of strain.  The age risk is well worth this draft slot, especially when he has been an automatic 90/40/100/.360 the last SEVEN seasons.

Worst: SP Dinelson Lamet SD (Ex-Presidents) – Elbow issues that started a year ago and carried into the next season? That’s a hard pass for me, no matter how talented he is.

Runner-up: SP Chris Paddack SD (S. Napalm) – There were some warts that were hidden in the impressive numbers during his breakout 2019 campaign that became apparent last year. The hype hasn’t died down enough, so the draft slot may be warranted but the fact that he has never developed a quality third pitch is a big concern. Though I can’t blame anyone for looking for SP upside.

X-Factor:  SP Julio Urias LAS (Montezumas) – Speaking of SP upside… it’s a lot easier to take chances when you have four of the top 30 picks. Still, for all of the hype (I mean “Mexican King Felix” was supposed to be a complement when he first came around), Urias’ production is ho hum with 8.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 and a 3.45/1.24 in his career. Just 24 and healthy with no inning limit, it’s time to see where this goes.

 

Round 9

Best:  SP Joe Musgrove SD (Grit B&B) – One of the underlying stats I always like to look at is K-BB% as it is hard to disguise the frequency in which a players strikes out or walks batters. BUT it can be deceiving if the K rate is insane as it allows for a strong K-BB even with an equally extreme walk rate. Of the FA starters available, the SPs that had a K% of at least 24.0% and a walk rate below 6.5% included Musgrove, all the TJS stars, Paddack, and Jordan Montgomery. He’s just 28 and this could be the season it all comes together.

Runner-up:  SP Pablo Lopez MIA (Cowhide) – Pablo has quietly become a burgeoning ace. His K upside has always been questionable, but he added a fifth legit pitch in the last year and has never struggled in four seasons – despite only just turning 25 a few weeks ago. At worst he’s a solid SP4. At best, he’s an ace.

Worst: C Yasmani Grandal CHW (Knuckle) – As a guy who holds off drafting a catcher until the late rounds or sometimes not at all, I can’t underwrite spending a top pick on a catcher under normal circumstances– even one as good as Grandal.  But when you’ve already kept a catcher, this is just confusing.

Runner-up: OF Teoscar Hernandez TOR (Ring) – This presents a somewhat hypocritical evaluation as I was both surprised to see TScar last this long and even more surprised to see the ever-OBP-conscious Dagan select him. With a lifetime 32% K rate, TScar’s consistent.230/.300 production in every seasons preceding 2020, tendency for monumental streakiness, and being one (cheap) cog in a crowded lineup of emerging hitters sounds like a lesson in frustration.

X-Factor: SP Lance McCullers HOU (One Nut) – Can you believe he’s just 27? Can you believe he has averaged 26.5% K rate and 11.9% SwStr% (swinging strike percentage) during his career? Can you believe he’s never thrown more than 129 innings in a season? Good spot to take him on a deep roster, but who knows if he’ll be available late in the season.

B-Factor(?): OF Byron Buxton MIN (S. Naplam) – After years of including him in this write up (and being correct each time), it seems wrong to not include him, so he gets his own category.  As I mentioned during the draft Buxton’s 2019-20 rates translate to an insane 93/32/102/22…. and .299. So, that’s a legit 4-cat stud, but the OBP can’t be ignored --- because it is not just a category he doesn’t contribute to, he actually hurts you,  Making him more like a 3.5-cat stud.  Like any other player that can’t take a base or hit for high average (Sal Perez, for example), you just need to balance your roster accordingly. With Freddie Freeman and Mike Trout on roster and sporting the most consistent annual .400+ OBPs in the league, I will underwrite the selection for this specific roster. My argument was always that his approach would prevent him from being “the next Trout” in the OBP leagues we roll, and that remains the case. I think he’d be better in the 12-13^th round. For the record, I think Lourdes Gurriel, Franmil Reyes, Dominic Smith, and Trey Mancini will be more valuable overall. BUT for what it’s worth, I don’t hate the pick.

 

Round 10

Best: 3B Alex Bohm PHI (S. Napalm) – There is a high correlation between players with great pedigree who succeed immediately upon being called up and long-term, viable annual keepers. Bohm is an athletic corner infielder with pop and surprising speed that I thought would be taken no later than the second round.

Runner-up:  OF Victor Robles WAS (Grit B&B) – Often people are too early on players and then completely give up on them as players too early. Robles has always had great pedigree, but his initial struggles in the bigs were predictable given the obvious holes in his approach. With a little more patience and placement at the top of a pretty good Nats lineup, this could be the last year he is available to be drafted for quite a while.

Worst: SP Chris Sale BOS (Brokeback) – I mean, I get it, the SP run was insane.  But this is Round 10! Many legit stars have been traded for 10^th rounders in this league.  Instead of a great one, Watson got a big name who may be back in June but likely won’t be back to his normal self until August – plenty of time to fall our of the playoff race completely.

Runner-up: SP Mike Soroka ATL (S. Napalm) – Sort of the same deal, except the injury and the upside is less extreme. Soroka is a rates-only guy, so you’re immediately down to 3 categories of real contribution and the Braves are going to take their time getting him back. Risk not worth the reward.

X-Factor: SP Tyler Mahle CIN (Angry Pirates) – A lot of industry people love Mahle and expect him to blow up this year, despite middling results most of his career.  But he’s just 25 years old and with a 25% K rate and decent walk rate, there reason to be excited. Still would’ve liked him a lot more a few rounds later.

 

Round 11

Best:  OF Franmil Reyes CLE (Grit B&B) – So much of fantasy baseball drafting is knowing when to zig when others are zagging. There were a lot of third and fourth tier SPs going around this time, but Shomphe went with the best player available and got a great one. No one knows how the dead ball will affect players, but we know it won’t impact Franimal and his 115 mph max exit velocity. The OF eligibility in Yahoo and an improving 9% walk rate, this is a legit four-cat player with upside.

Runner-up: SP Zach Eflin PHI (Freedom) – Eflin is an emerging SP that has a solid repertoire which have contributed to a serviceable middle-of-the rotation type.  Just 26, minor improvements in K and BB rates could pull him from the mid tier to the top tier.  

Worst: RP Liam Hendricks CHW (Freedom) – Sorry Hunt, it’s tradition. First RP selected = worst pick of the round. Sure he’s great, elite even. But in a S+H league, with everyone rostering 7-10 SPs, his Ks have a minimal impact on week-to-week production. The impact on rates is also low given that RPs only have 20-30% of the innings that a traditional starter has. So you’re looking in total at about two categories of contribution total. And then you have to consider the value of the replacement level player for the S+H category.  Looking at S+H leaders the last two seasons, you don’t have to go far to find a top contributor who didn’t get any saves at all.  Hendricks’ top setup guy the last couple seasons. Jake Diekman, had 44 SH in 2019-20 vs. 47 for Hendricks – and he was a FA after the draft.

Runner-up: 1B Andrew Vaughn CHW (Montezumas) –  Vaughn has tons of upside in an OBP league, but power might be just OK and it’s possible he’s just a Hosmer type. Eloy clarified the playing time issue I think. With OF eligibility on the way, he could be valuable. But Dom Smith was waiting there with both eligibilities and less risk, so this was a stupid pick.  

X-Factor: UT Shohei Ohtani LAA (B) (Tomahawk) – I honestly don’t know what to do with this guy in Yahoo leagues. Is he getting full-time ABs this season or not? His 162-game average is top tier, but not realistic. If he’s part time, it’s hard to dedicate a valuable bench spot to a part-time UTIL-only. But I fully admit I could be completely wrong here.

 

Round 12

Best:  1B/OF Dom Smith NYM (Freedom) – Probably wouldn’t have fallen this far if the universal DH was still available, but I think he still plays every day and produces like a keeper for next year. Just 25, his production over the last two seasons amounts to 94/32/102/2/.366 over 600 abs. Many will regret not jumping on this slide earlier.

Runner-up:  SP John Means BAL (Cowhide) – The surface level stats were nothing to write home about last season and his xFIP and SIERA were pretty much rubbish too. But there was a clear improvement over the course of the season in 2020, which followed a strong 2019 debut, so the 26 yo could be some minor adjustments away from a strong SP3 option.  At this point in the draft, is gold – and to Dave, with his draftboard – it’s just gravy.

Worst: C/OF Daulton Varsho ARI (Cowhide) – While I don’t blame Dave for looking for upside from the C position and perhaps find an advantage with an eventual C-eligible bench bat, Varsho sucked last year and then he sucked in the spring. Would’ve been better off getting a great RP to finish up the Cowhide draft and getting a waiver wire NA because Varsho probably wouldn’t have been drafted.

Runner-up: OF Jarren Duran BOS (Ring) – I mean, I like him and everything, but jeez.  Maybe he gets called up and maybe he shows a lot more power than he did in the minors and maybe a better walk rate… but I’m pretty sure he could’ve been had much later.

X-Factor:  OF Kyle Lewis SEA (S. Napalm) – It was a tale of two halves for Lewis last season, who came out like gangbusters and then fell flat. It’s definitely worthwhile to see which one shows up, but that M’s outfield is interesting. If Lewis starts cold, he could be waving at Jarred Kelenic on his way down to Tacoma to “work on things.”

 

Round 13

Best: OF Jesse Winker CIN (Ex-Presidents) – It’s sometimes hard to gauge Winker because he seems to always be at varying levels of production and either being platooned or injured. But make no mistake about it, he’s young, powerful, excellent patience and a regular at the top of a good lineup.

Runner-up: SP Andrew Heaney LAA (Ring) – As previously noted, I’m a sucker for a good K-BB% guy and Heaney has always been that. Each season it seems feels like a true ace season is coming, but it always falls short, often because of injury. He’s prone to the occasional blow-up, but the skillset is better than many SPs going before him.

Worst: RP Josh Hader MIL (S. Napalm) – Yeah, still don’t like it. Interesting that it’s another example of a closer whose setup guy was actually more valuable last year and could’ve been had later in the draft.

Runner-up: 1B Bobby Dalbec BOS (One Nut) – I love Bobby. He’s fun to watch and I have no doubt there’s success in his future. But a steady stream of big league pitches getting acquainted with the massive holes in his swing (42.4% K rate in 23 games last season) is going to create a massive OBP hole in the lineup.

X-Factor: SP Framber Valdez HOU (One Nut) – It was hard to know where Valdez was heading at this point in the season, but it sounds like he could be back from a broken finger in short order. He made WAY more sense than the TJS guys at this point in the draft and is a legit SP4 with SP2 upside.

 

Round 14

Best: TIE SP Christian Javier HOU (Moose) & SP Freddy Peralta MIL (Montezumas) – Tie here because it’s basically the same description. At this point in the draft, both these players have the same strengths and weaknesses: phenomenal K upside & starting jobs/lacking third quality pitch & questionable control. But it made perfect sense at this point in the draft and is a nice balance of risk vs. reward.

Runner-up: OF Max Kepler MIN (Donkey) – I know 2020 was a let down coming off 2019 (98/36/90/1/.336), but there’s legit talent that lessens the likelihood that the season was a  huge outlier. Savvy pick by Jed.

Worst: SP Ryan Yarborough TB (Ring) – The mehness of Yarborough just is too overwhelming. I mean, he’s fine. He’s just… meh.

Runner-up: SP Shohei Ohtani LAA (P) (Angry) – Again, I admittedly don’t know what to do here. It was a pretty good round for selections, so don’t take it personally. I just always look at him and am never able to pull the trigger. This season thought, I’d prefer the hitter Ohtani by quite a bit.

X-Factor: SP Trevor Rogers MIA (Moose) – Rogers is one of those players that fell short of most 12- and 14-team short lists, but turned heads with the statement in the spring. He was striking out guys all over the place and finds himself in a great situation to thrive and provide immediate value. But it was also spring and he was always just a good prospect, so he could be waiver wire fodder shortly.  I did want him though.

 

Round 15

Best:  1B Miguel Sano MIN (Montezuma’s) – Little Miggy has been a keeper for a while, so to see him slide to this point was quite surprising in an OBP league.  The last two season his rates amount to 100/44/97/0/.325. With 3B eligibility in Yahoo, he’s even more yummy.

Runner-up: 3B Ryan McMahon (Montezuma’s) – It’s always hard to grade my own drafts, but I sure did like my round 15. McMahon is finally going to get full time run at Coors and has shown 80/30/90/5/.330 potential in the past, so this was a great grab at this point.

Worst: OF Joc Pederson CHC (Tomahawk) – I’ve been there and I can see the appeal, but having lived through Joc seasons a few times, I’ve given up hope.  He is never ever going to hit lefties. It doesn’t matter if he’s going to be in the lineup every day. He’s had 356 at bats to show he can produce and it’s just pathetic .188/.261/.303.  Like Rafael Belliard territory. Sure, platoon him, but he’s taking up a spot that could be filled by someone offering more upside at this point in the draft.

Runner-up: SP Brady Singer KC (Grit B&B) – The control just isn’t there and I’m not sure it’s going to improve quickly at 23 yo. Stuff is just OK. Seems destined for frustration.

X-Factor: SP Robbie Ray TOR (Freedom) – SPEAKING of frustration… there is no greater dispersion between potential outcomes of any player in major league history than Robbie Freaking Ray. But with the consistent velocity throughout the spring, there is at least hope that we’ll see the pitcher that has achieved 200+ Ks in a season three times, despite never throwing more than 175 innings.

 

Round 16

Best: OF Dylan Carlson STL (S. Naplam) – My pick of the draft. Really, I thought he’d go much sooner given the pedigree and playing time.  I can see why he slid. He did not impress at all in his first go round last season, but he went back down and came up a different player in the playoffs. He displayed much better patience – the kind he showed throughout the minors – and could very well be 80/20/80/20/.340 guy this season, with the potential to add 10s to each of those season long totals in short order.

Runner-up: SP Yusei Kikuchi SEA (Freedom) – What a strange draft. It’s really hard finding upside at this point, and on the surface, Kikuchi doesn’t have the 2020 stats to make him even a little interesting. BUT velocity gains are one of the most critical stats when looking for emerging players. And he’s been consistently higher. It’s clear there is no playbook when it comes to pitchers coming to the majors from Asia, so the crap we’ve experienced thus far could just be a blip at the start of a decent career.

Worst: SP Carlos Rodon CHW (One Nut) – With a career walk rate of 10.0% and a long history of injuries, I’m quite confident Rodon will forever be a big name with bad results.

Runner-up: SP Mike Minor KC (Moose) – Star prospect > struggling SP > SP star > Injured > star reliever > decent SP > keeper SP > junk SP, Mike Minor is a game of fantasy Russian Roulette.

X-Factor:  OF Nick Senzel CIN (Ring) – I’m not sure he’s allowed to be an X factor any more after this season, so he better produce. There’s a 90/20/80/20/.350 bat there somewhere, but we thought that about David Dahl too.

 

Round 17

Best:  OF Brandon Nimmo NYM (Knuckle) – Nimmo is criminally underrated and, unlike Joc, actually has a fighting chance against lefties (.248/.367/.405), so there is a strong case to never platoon him. One of the few players that could legitimately average .400 OBP for his career and chip in in all the other categories too.

Runner-up: SP Taijuan Walker NYM (Knuckle) – Given the amount of SPs that are being taken as longshot, how did a 28 year-old with great pedigree coming off a 2.70/1.16 season with 8.4 K/9 slip like this?

Worst: SP Brad Keller KC (Grit B&B) – Apparently we’re just on a run of barf-inducing KC pitchers the last three rounds. Remember K-BB%? 17.0 K% and 9.4 BB% is waaaaay too fucking close.

Runner-up: SP AJ Puk OAK (Brokeback) – I like him, but just not this year. He’s going to get dicked around between SP and RP and minors, so he’s hardly worth rostering until he settles.

X-Factor: SP Casey Mize DET (Ring) – There really wasn’t much to like about what he did last year, but that’s why rookie pitchers are a poor investment 90% of the time. But this pedigree is too good to ignore and one year he’s going to blow up. Might as well see if this is the year.

 

Round 18

Best: 1B/3B/OF Hunter Dozier KC (Ex-Presidents) – Under the radar, but just solid all around contributor. You can count on 75/25/75/5/.340 with lots of position eligibility and potential for more. Not sexy, but solid.

Runner-up: 1B Eric Hosmer SD (Moose) – There’s some reason to believe Hos’ power improvements were real last year and that he’s not just a modern day Mark Grace. Hitting in the heart of the SD lineup, it’s at least an automatic 90 RBIs and a great piece to add to a solid lineup at this point in the draft.

Worst: SP David Price LAD (Brokeback) – It was clear before the draft that Price was heading to the bullpen. Maybe he finds his way back to the rotation eventually, but it will probably be on a different fantasy team.

Runner-up: SP Michael Kopech CHW (S. Napalm) – Nothing wrong with the skills, but this guy has a long history of non-baseball related issues even before the BoSox drafted him. Doesn’t sound like sitting out last year really had anything to do with COVID and his passion for the game has long been questioned. As a glorified reliever at this point, not really interested in anything other than a late flier.

X-Factor: 1B Rowdy Tellez TOR (Freedom) – With steadily improving K rates and big power/patience, I’m a big Rowdy guy and am hoping this big guy gets Rowdy this season. But it is a super crowded lineupand he has the least impressive resume of the bunch, so ABs this season could be as hard to find as his actual abs are hard to find underneath that fluff.

 

Round 19

Best: SP Matthew Boyd DET (Tomahawk) – For all of the risk people were willing to assume, why was no one all over a player who pumped out 238 Ks in 185 IP in 2019? He actually has really good command too. Not sure what happened last year, but he’s much better than that. Great move by Chad.

Runner-up: SP Jake Odorizzi HOU (Montezuma’s) – Again, there were a lot of risky picks well before this point in the draft. What’s wrong with a 31 yo with a 162-game average of 3.95/1.24 and 175 Ks? Perfect SP5 on a team that has him as an SP9.

Worst: SP/RP Carlos Martinez STL (S. Naplam) – It would be helpful for everyone if C-Mart just changed his name completely at this point. He’s not a top shelf young flame thrower anymore – he’s either an RP with a control problem or an SP that can’t make it 5 innings.

Runner-up: OF Lorenzo Cain MIL (Donkey) – Nothing wrong with the pick at this point, just calling my shot that a 35 yo that just sat out a season won’t be bouncing back to his old form again.

X-Factor:  SP Tony Gonsolin LAD (Tomahawk) – I think Gonsolin is a top 75 pitcher in the league, but he’s a Dodger and that means his role will be in a state of flux. If you can stomach the long relief for a while, at some point he will be performing at an SP4 level for an SP8 cost.

 

Round 20

Best: RP Ryan Pressly HOU (Brokeback) – A lot of RPs were taken at this point and Watson somehow stole a top 5 RP late.

Runner-up: OF Jo Adell LAA (S. Napalm) – Looking at minor league BB/K rates can be one of the most instructive ways of determining which players come up an immediately succeed. Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis’s numbers were insane. Adell’s were not, so it’s not surprising at all that he came up and whiffed 40% of the time. He’s gonna be a good one at some point, and it may not happen this year, but he’ll get a chance – and there’s nothing more you could ask from your NA spot.

Worst: SP Mike Clevinger SD (S. Napalm) – It’s one thing to draft a TJS guy coming back this season. It’s another thing to draft someone that is going to need to come back next season as a keeper to be of any value and will have to occupy an IL slot all year. He’s not a spring chicken either, so this is a wasted pick in my mind.

Runner-up:  SP Tanner Houck BOS (Ring) – I actually like what I’ve seen from majors Houck quite a bit, but minors Houck walked 11% of the batters he faced in the minors. That went down to 3.8% in the cup of coffee last year. Walk rates don’t tend to improve as you face better hitters, so….

X-Factor: RP Amir Garrett CIN (S. Napalm) – There’s a lot to like about this live arm (struck out all 9 batters he faced in Spring training), but the RP situation in CIN is a bit muddied. Still, I could see him being a top 5 RP for years to come.

 

Round 21

Best: RP Matt Barnes BOS (Moose) – He’s always been a great talent. This year he’s got less competition for the closer role and he’s about to become a FA. Big season on the way.

Runner-up: SS Willi Castro DET (Grit B&B) – Admittedly didn’t know much about Willi last year, but he quietly put together rates that amount to a 75/20/75/10/.340 hitter. You’ll take that all day at this point in the draft… even if he’s a Tiger.

Worst: SP John Gant STL (Moose) – There is nothing about this profile (28 yo, career 7.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 30 games started, 106 games relieving) that says he should anywhere near a fantasy roster.

Runner-up: RP Pete Fairbanks TB (Cowhide) – Not a whole lot of issues with picks in this round, I just don’t have Fairbanks very high on my list due to control issues and TB being shartwaffles when it comes to defined bullpen roles. 

X-Factor:  SP/RP Tejay Antone CIN (Tomahawk) – See Gonsolin, Tony. (Picking great pitchers with uncertain roles is a great way to attack this part of the draft.)

 

Round 22

Best: RP Jordan Hicks STL (Knuckle) – Something about a pitcher that can sling 103 mph with consistency and accuracy that just gets the juices flowing. The role may be a little undefined initially, but make no mistake, he’s the RP to own in STL.

Runner-up: 1B Jared Walsh LAA (Ring) – There’s a lot to like about what Walsh did in his cup of coffee last year, which followed a tea cup in 2019. All told, his 162-game average is 73/29/89/0/.321, but he’s 27 with upside. Playing time is a bit of a concern with Ohtani and Pujols around, but talent typically wins out.

Worst: OF JD Davis NYM (Freedom) – Just never been that interested in him (162ga is 67/20/54/2/.348) and now he’s in a crowded lineup with no DH and sucks hard at defense. Seems destined for the waivers.

Runner-up: RP Lucas Sims CIN (Ex-Presidents) – Fine with the talent and role, but a known injury is something I try to avoid early on.

X-Factor: SS Willy Adames TB (Freedom) – Poor Willy. The second he came up and couldn’t follow up on his great rookie season, people started going ga-ga over Wander. Adames is just 25 and he’s battled some injuries, but is fully capable of a 80/25/80/10/.330 season, and maybe much more.

 

Round 23

Best: - RP Drew Pomeranz SD (Tomahawk) – He’s a top 10 RP in S+H leagues and its baffling he dropped this far.

Runner-up: SP Jose Quintana LAA (S. Napalm) – One of my fantasy favorites over the years. I either drafted him or traded for him almost every year in his prime due to strong not great Ks and consistent rates. Injuries and velocity concerns have caught up, but he was slinging solid in spring.

Worst: RP Joakim Soria ARI (Grit B&B) – In S+H leagues, best thing to do is go for talent and good teams. Soria is old, had a poor spring, and is an Arizona D-bag.

Runner-up: RP Richard Rodriguez PIT (Brokeback) – He’s pretty good, but you need to win to get a S+H... and this may be the worst roster I’ve ever seen.  Best hope will be if he gets traded to a contender, but he’ll probably be dropped by then.

X-Factor: OF Sam Hilliard COL (Brokeback) – Just look at the 2019 AAA line and dream: 109/35/101/22/.335… now wake up and realize COL is where young fringy talent goes to DIE!

 

Round 24

Best: RP Hector Neris PH (Brokeback) – Philly is going to be good and even if we didn’t know for sure Neris was the closer, he’s the best reliever there and was bound to be a solid RP in this league. Could’ve been drafted 5 rounds prior and made sense.

Runner-up: SP Nick Pivetta BOS (Angry) – Love this because there’s no risk, but a ton of upside. Pivetta has a great repertoire that hasn’t quite translated to sustained success but has shown up big in games along the way.

Worst: C Adley Rutschman BAL (S. Napalm) – The only thing worse than wasting an NA slot on a rookie catcher is not having an NA spot open, forcing you to waste a bench spot on him.

Runner-up: SP Randy Dobnak MIN (Freedom) – Dobber is a perfectly fine piece for a major league club, but a 5.7 K/9 ain’t helping no one in fantasy.

X-Factor: SP Logan Gilbert SEA (Tomahawk) – If willingness to take a walk is a harbinger of success for young hitterw, unwillingness to give up a walk is one for young pitchers. The stuff is something less than elite, but Gilbert’s K rates ranged from 29-43% in his three minor league season, while his walk rate has remained below 8%. This is a pitcher that could come up and contribute immediately on a team with some questionable rotation members. 

2021 Offseason Rankings

It's time to get the hot stove fired up again. There were a few trades in December, but it has been largely quiet since then.  Below are the current, somewhat scientific rankings at the current moment. The draftboard scores are an algorithm that awards points for each round and creates an overall score, which is reflected in the offseason guide. The keeper scores are more subjective. It is important to understand that even though it is a keeper league, we're ranking for the 2021 season. So, it does not take into account future value, but rather likelihood of 2021 value.  It also assumes everyone is keeping the six players I have the highest score for from your present roster.  So even though I will probably keep Kelenic, my team score is based on keeping LeMaheiu -- as I don't assume to know who you are all planning to keep. 

The offseason guide can be found by CLICKING HERE.  So check it out and lets get dealing!

---------------------------------

1. Montezuma’s Revenge (Adam)

Keepers: 1^st

Draftboard: 4^th

Hard to compete with Soto, Tatis, and Mookie as a base. Giolito, Alonso, and Lemaheiu make up a solid last three, with Kelenic and Brohm as potential young options. Draftboard lacks a first, but has four seconds and nothing in last four rounds.

 

2 (t). Grit Beer and Balls (Shomphe)

Keepers: 2^nd

Draftboard: 9^th

Bellinger, Harper, DeGrom, and Cole are all highenders and Abreu and Adalbero aren’t too far behind. Not a lot extra here outside of Corbin, unless you want to assume risk of injury (Sale, E-Rod) or youth (Luzardo, May). With no first or second, the draftboard is lacking at the top but all in all spread out so it’s close to the baseline otherwise.

 

2 (t). Tomahawk Chops (Chad/Hunt)

Keepers: 3^rd

Draftboard: 8^th

Acuna is a top tier and Bichette is on the verge. Sano and Albies are very solid, while Darvish/Gallen makes up one of the best 1-2s in the league. Lots of interesting extras like BLowe, Grusham, Winker, and Burnes too. Draftboard is OK, with no 1^st and a couple other holes, but nothing that can’t be overcome.

 

4 (t). Ring of Fire (Dagan)

Keepers: 6^th

Draftboard: 6^th

Story is the headliner, followed by a bunch of solid second tier guys like Suarez, Ozuna, Conforto, Berrios, Realmuto. Goldy, Bryant, Yaz, DomSmith, Maeda all have varying levels of potential as a keeper. Predictably, Dagan’s draftboard reflects his trading style: boring and solid with one gap and a near baseline score.

 

4 (t). One Nut Wonders (Jason)

Keepers: 10^th

Draftboard: 2^nd

Lots of solidness, but nothing spectacular with this keeper group. Springer, Rendon, JDMart, and Xander are about as consistent as they come, with Snell and Yordan much less so. There isn’t a lot extra here unless Gibby wants Buxton back and we keep pretending Correa is something he’s not. Soler and Semien are OK options. The draftboard is gorgeous though with three first rounders and three thirds.

 

6 (t). Ex-Presidents (Jeff)

Keepers: 4^th

Draftboard: 10^th

The keeper score centers around the presence of Lindor and three upper echelon young starters (Bieber, Woodruff, Flaherty). We don’t really know what we’ll get from Hiura and Devers on an annual basis, but the long-term value is strong. Paddock and Contreras aren’t great options as extras, but could be a sixth. Draftboard is still strong with first and second intact and just a couple holes.

 

6 (t). Donkey Punchers (Jed)

Keepers: 11^th

Draftboard: 3^rd

Lacking big piece outside of Bauer. Nola is great and Olson, TAnderson, Blackmon are solid if unspectacular. Meadows would be a wildcard. There’s potential for Carrasco, Gray, and Villar to perform like keepers but they’re outside the top 84 right now. Pretty draftboard with two firsts and a cluster of 9 picks in rounds 5-7.

 

6 (t). Cowhide Joyride (Dave)

Keepers: 13^th

Draftboard: 1^st

With great keepers like Machado and Seager, and solid options in Voit, Lamet and Giancarlo the score would be a lot better if Lux wasn’t the only option as a sixth. Just hasn’t shown anything to project him as good value in 2021, which is what this analysis is focused on. Dave and Jason have similar boards, but Dave is much more concentrated in the upper-middle rounds. With three firsts, it’s a beaut.

 

9 (t). Anal Hershiser (Justin)

Keepers: 5^th

Draftboard: 10^th

The youth of Justin’s keepers dampens the 2021 outlook somewhat, but with Tucker, Klewis, Vlad, Eloy, and Buehler – surrounding Arenado – this is one of the top two teams long-term. There’s also Wander, Thor, Gallo, Pham, and Adell, so could easily see Justin jump up the board with some trades. He could easily fill the holes in the first, fifth, sixth and seventh and have a top 5 draftboard.

 

9 (t). The Angry Pirates (Kyle)

Keepers: 8^th

Draftboard: 7^th

JoRam is a monster and Yelich usually is, so that’s a strong base.  But there’s a bit of a gap after that. Castillo is very solid, but Altuve, Glasnow, Fried, Muncy, Castellanos, Mancini, Swanson, and Bundy all have potential and warts. There’s some small gaps in the draftboard in the midrounds, but overall a near baseline board.

 

11. Knuckle Sandwich (Jones)

Keepers: 13^th

Draftboard: 5^th

Chris’ keepers would be better if Chapman and Gleyber didn’t have such challenging 2020s, as Merrifield is a top tier producer and Sixto looks like a potential ace. The final two keeper spots are a little up in the air with Kepler and Franimal intriguing options and IAnderson and Urias talented yet unproven.  Lynn is the less glamourous but solid option and GSanchez take a leap of faith to consider. Like Dave, some solidifying of the final spots would improve that keeper score quick, but the long-term outlook is better. The draftboard has a baseline score with only a couple gaps before a nice cluster before the last four rounds.

 

12. Sexual Napalm (Gibby)

Keepers: 7^th

Draftboard: 12^th

Gibby already went to work boosting his keepers and now has Scherzer and Freeman joining Trout in one of the best cores in the league. If Moncada and Baez had 2020s that replicated their 2019s, this would be a much higher score. It would also be higher if Robles and Soroka weren’t the only real options as a 6^th.  The draftboard is fine with a hole in the second and a couple in the mid rounds.

 

13. Moose is Loose (Brian)

Keepers: 9^th

Draftboard: 13^th

Marte is still a stud muffin with five category potential and Bregman should be expected to rebound.  It’s hard to give star grades to Judge and Strasburg due to injury and Cruz due to age. Biggio looks like a budding star with five-category potential, but could also fall short of being great in any category. Teoscar, Donaldson, and Plesac have potential, but require a lot of faith. With health, this is a top keeper group.  The draftboard has a first but is hindered by a huge gap in rounds 2-5.

 

14. Brokeback Mountain (Watson)

Keepers: 12^th

Draftboard: 14^th

There’s the headliner in Turner surrounded by solidness in Rizzo, Hoskins and Kershaw, mixed with the imbalanced season of LRobert. The only thing holding this group back is the sixth because it’s really hard to have faith in Ketel and Schwarber and WSmith aren’t going to excite anyone. The low draftboard score reflects the lack of a first, fifth and sixth, and could actually be improved quickly with some trades. But ranking doesn’t reflect that this is overall solid group of keepers and draft board that just needs some minor tinkering and/or faith.

2021 Offseason Guide

 Offseason Guide:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mMpqgNtNIlrVNrhF8kswjWxGqHyPFHB2BA8uJBQPX20/edit?usp=sharing

You'll see I've marked sheets that you can adjust and those you can't. The ROSTER sheet is a little different, with color coding for who is your current keepers and who is on the trade block.  There's also a place for you to comment on what you're looking for and adjust your contact info. Don't just highlight everyone and say they're on the trade block - please be realistic.

Remember four of your 2021 keepers need to be players that were kept last year. They have a (K) next to their names on the ROSTER page and there's a list of all on the KEEPER page.

The draft order/board is maintained from the start of 2020, based on the 2019 season results and the 2020 offseason. With the 2021 offseason open, all of these picks are open for trading.

Not sure we have any critical things to vote on this year, but let me know if you think otherwise. We will be reverting back to QS from W as planned. Everything is on the table, though some potential changes would have to wait until 2022 to be implemented.

I have not heard of any departures but let me know if you plan to or are considering it. Gibby is planning to leave after this season, but I'm hoping we can convince him otherwise.

The MLB still has a lot of things to work out, including whether the DH will be universal. I'd like to think the season will start on time with similar parameters as last season and perhaps no spring training games, but who knows. Lots can happen between now and then so lets forge ahead as normal.

2020 Season Wrapup

Congratulations to all for making it through the season! And thanks to everyone who reached out to congratulate me on the Revenge’s second championship! Congratulations to Kyle on second place and Chad & Adam on third place! You should have received the payouts ($433.50 & $144.50, respectively) in your PayPal this morning.

Despite a season full of blah action thanks to the roto format, the championship was full of suspense as the universal 3 pm start times on Sunday meant the point totals were all getting finalized around the same time, including key categories of W and SH after the games were complete. First place bounced between Montezuma’s and Angry Pirates dozens of times in the final two hours. While the categories accumulated over the course of the season, in the final hours a rogue SB by Jurickson Profar on Sexual Napalm, a 4 ER 5 IP win by Austin Voth on Ring of Fire, and 1 more K by Montezuma’s over Ex-Presidents ultimately made up the difference. Kyle also lost starts by Matt Shoemaker (last minute change by TOR) and Dylan Bundy (last minute finger cut) on Saturday, which didn’t help.  The game and innings limits played a key role in restricting roster structures, but it did effectively level the playing field so the stats were more fueled by quality than quantity (Sunday's influx of pickups for any probable starter with a pulse notwithstanding). Kyle’s squad was in the lead most of the season and one more day might’ve changed the standings again, but it was a great final battle between two deserving squads (even if they were actually playing everybody).

In the meantime, Tomohawk Chop came from the middle of the pack mid week and surprised everyone by jumping to third in the final day. A very strong week fueled the ascent, but it was ultimately the failures of Ring of Fire’s pitching that caused the final change in standings, specifically the surprising and disruptive 8 ER pummeling of Aaron Civale on Saturday and 6 ER (in 1.1 IP) outing by Seth Lugo on Sunday (which also awarded an unexpected point to Montezuma’s).

Overall, the season went smoothly from a structure standpoint - despite the challenges MIA and STL Covid issues caused. While the games were ultimately largely made up, people who were counting on pitchers for these teams got the short end of the stick, specifically Jack Flaherty (Jeff), Sandy Alcantara (Dave) and CMart (Chris). But thankfully any other real world disruptions were shortlived.  

Roto was boring and required a bit different strategy than most were used to, but it did allow us to avoid having a six week regular season and three week H2H playoff. The lack of H2H action only accentuated the lack of trades thanks to the restrictions established prior to the season to eliminate draft pick trades.  In any case, the teams that were at the top of the standings clearly had the best rosters, so in that way it was at least representative of the actual production – even if it was less exciting to most. As much as I appreciate representative champions, I haven’t heard anyone say they prefer Roto over H2H.

One regret for me is that we switched to W instead of QS. It didn’t end up taking SPs very long to ramp up and is still the superior statistic in my mind. The fact that Austin Voth’s “win” impacted the standings is regrettable. QS isn’t perfect, but at least it’s consistent.

And with that, the offseason begins and you are welcome to start trading at any time! I will try to get an offseason guide ready a little earlier this year for reference, but if you’re wondering what your pick situation is, the 2020 Offseason Guide is accurate from a pick perspective. It can be reached here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IvXqaIlOIVgxwdmQIEZvWnw59bSeDIeNd1Tghx1nTR8/edit?usp=sharing

Just a reminder that you will need to keep at least four players in 2021 that were kept for the 2020 season (by any team). So keep that in mind while you’re dealing.

If you have anything you want to discuss about structural changes to the league while it’s fresh in mind, please feel free to post here or message me directly. Nothing stands out from my perspective (other than to change everything back to the way it was haha). We always toss around rostering more minors spots, but it always falls short on votes. Perhaps we can think more about ways to build up that side of it (a minors keeper spot?).

If anyone is deciding to leave the league, please let me know with as much notice as possible. If you’re thinking about it and haven’t decided, that’s good to know as well. Gibby has announced that 2021 will be his final season, but I’m bound and determined to convince him otherwise over the course of next season.

Thank you all for participating in another season of High & Tight Fantasy Baseball. The 15^th year was a weird one for sure, but I hope the presence of fantasy baseball at least helped a bit during these challenging times. I know it did for me.  I look forward to the offseason chatter – let’s get dealing.

Adam