Week 11 Real Rankings

Week 10 Real Rankings

NOTES

• The Angry Pirates were furious this week – after years of being overlooked and stuck in a run of mediocre seasons, Kyle has been quietly crushing it this year. Except this week was not so quiet. His 2.0 is the best Real Ranking since I started doing these in 2013. That’s 728 rankings among 14 teams over the course of 52 weeks. And it wasn’t really close. The previous best was a 2.2 by Gibby in Week 9 of 2013, who amazingly came in first in every category except saves, where he finished 14th (he punted that year). Kyle’s worst category was SBs, where he (and four other teams) came in fourth. This wasn’t the best week ever, but it was certainly the best week relative to the rest of us ever.
• The biggest difference between the RR and Actual Rankings are the outperformance of the Munchkins (6^th RR, 3^rd Actual) and underperformance of Cowhide (9^th RR, 14^th Actual
• Over the last four weeks, the top teams are: One Nut (5.3 RR), Angry (5.7), and Montezumas (6.5). Bottom is Cowhide (8.7), Keepin (8.0), and Prestige (7.8).
• Since we have a 21 week season, there isn’t an official half way mark, but we’re essentially half done at this point. Time for deep contemplation and consideration for the best course of action going forward.

1.       Angry – Stable pitching staff is key to success going forward; offense is capable of crushing all. Roster has been inconsistent, but well managed.

2.       Montezumas – Led the way for the first six weeks and has trailed a bit the past four. Overall roster still dominant; perhaps another good SP needed.

3.       Munchkins – Playing over their heads according to RR and highly inconsistent, but loaded offensively. Couple SPs in trade could mean championship.

4.       Donkey – Underappreciated in the actual rankings; would be in first of RR if not for the 10.7 in week 7. Consistently excellent and well balanced.

5.       Anal – Top five offensive team, but pitching has been a problem. 13 steals in week 10, second place team had 4 - there is a such thing as too much of a good thing.

6.       One Nut – Heavily imbalanced again, only the opposite of last year (1^st pitch, 9^th hit). But beware - the quiet, one-nutted monster is lurking.

7.       Prestige – Enjoying a happy return to relevance; some issues, but on both ends but very balanced with 8^th best pitching and hitting.

8.       Dagan – Like our other 3-time champion, heavily imbalanced (1^st hitting, 12^th pitching). Lucky for Dagan, pitching is easier (and cheaper) to fix.

9.       MET – Pitching is crushing it, but hitting has struggled and upside of lineup appears limited and inconsistent. However, could definitely win with that staff.

10.   Moose – Tough year with injuries and underperformance, but head above water thanks to pitching. Could make push for playoffs with the luck he is due.

11.   Keepin – Keepin it quiet really; Pierce’s failure to address shortcomings (7 moves) may be his undoing if the current roster doesn’t start to recover.

12.   Urban – Offense is making due without Bryce, but Felix’s hiccups haven’t helped. Jose Fernandez’s return could be big boost for 13^th ranked pitching staff.

13.   S. Napalm – May have sold too cheap initially but making up for it thanks to active ownership; enough talent on O but SPs don’t give him a shot.

14.   Cowhide – While RR says stay the course, 16.5 games out of a playoff spot and 34 games out of first say time is running out. Staff still playoff caliber.

Week 9 Real Rankings

It was a week of relative domination on both sides of the scoreboard as Jason crushed all with an incredible pitching line and sub-2.0 RR for that side, and my team, which got back into the swing of things (pun intended) and had an excellent offensive week. Dan was almost as good on offense, finishing second in four categories.

Meanwhile, it was a forgettable week for Lars, who did goo in saves aaaand that's about it. Still, he's in position to make the playoffs and is sitting in 8th in the Real Rankings.

The battle for first was close for most of the week until Sunday, when Shomphe's pitching brought his rates down and brought the score to 8-2, dropping the Munchkins to third.

Changing things up and giving some kudos for some keen picking. While there are some late round gems, drafting well is drafting well regardless where you got them. Here are some of the best picks from the draft and where they rank overall this season in the top 60 (RPs not included.

1. Chris Archer, One Nut (4th) - Round 9
2. Sonny Gray, Donkey (8th) - Round 7
3. Dallas Keuchel, Donkey (11th) - Round 12
4. AJ Pollock, Munchkins (12th) - Round 11
5. Jacob deGrom, Anal (21st) - Round 8
5. Brett Gardner, Urban (26th) - Round 10
6. Jason Hammel, One Nut (28th) - Roun 17
7. Mark Tiexera, Angry (36th) - Round 22
8. Joc Pederson, Montezumas (39th) - Round 8
9. Johnny Peralta, Ring (44th) - Round 18
10. Matt Carpenter, Montezumas (45th) - Round 10
11. Kolten Wong, Munchkins (58th) - Round 8
12. Lorenzo Cain, Munchkins (59th) - Round 15
13. Jake Odorizzi, Ring (60th) - Round

Week 8 Real Rankings

Week 7 Real Rankings

So big whoopsy with the Real Rankings. Apparently they haven’t been so real, or at least accurate. Turns out my spreadsheets weren’t including SV+HLD all along. This was likely due to the conversion from SV to SV+HLD, which I thought I had covered for, but apparently not. So, there are some adjustments, albeit minor. The orange column shows what you were ranked without the category and the blue column next to it is the actual rank. The real change is Jason moves up a couple spots and Dave moves down a few. I apologize for the rookie error.

NOTES:

• We have hit the end of the first trimester! One-third of the season is gone and, as you’ll see by the transaction log, there is more than enough sample size to reach conclusions on your players. I imagine trading will pick up even more in the coming weeks.
• Just a sidenote since my last notes installment, Ryu went down too. That leaves, well, not many left of the SPs supposedly expected to join their respective rotations early in the season. Now, the wait is on for last year’s TJS survivors – Moore, Corbin, Perez, Nova, Fernandez, to name a few.
• From the Real Rankings and Actual Standings, one can conclude that there’s currently one dominant team (Me). There’s another tier just below that is led by Shannon, Kyle, and Lars (a welcome return back to relevancy). Shomphe and Jason are close by, except their on the opposite ends of the luck spectrum as Jason has been decidedly unlucky, ranking outside the last playoff spot currently, while Chris is sitting pretty in second place.
• Even though he was hurt by my calculation error, Dave should not be in the basement in the Actual Standings this year as he’s 9^th in the Real Rankings and just a great week away from being in the top 5. We have two seasons of data that show these things ultimately even out as the season moves along, so they should not be ignored.
• One thing Dave has going for him is consistency. The VAR column (gray) shows the volatility of the Real Rankings throughout the year. And as you can see by looking at the week to week RR scores, Dave is clearly in the mix each week and has a league leading VAR of 0.6.
• On the other side of the volatility spectrum, Gibby has had a bit of a schizophrenic start, ranging from 4.8 last week to 11.6 two weeks prior
• Week 7 saw a reversal of some recent trends, with both Shannon and myself losing matches to lower-ranking teams. For Shannon, it was simply a rare bad week, while I got a bit unlucky, losing 4-5-1 but ranking in the top four in the Real Ranks. Still, the week showed some flaws in my team that weren’t there the first few weeks, so we’ll see if it becomes a pattern.
• Updated top 25 below. Unlike the beginning of the season, you’re starting to see the cream rise to the top and stay there with these ranks. That said, there are a few noteworthy ascensions. Harper has become the beast everyone dreamed he’d be years before he was even drafted, Gordon has proved he is a legit top of the line speedster, Shelby is achieving the promise he showed as a young prospect, likewise Archer has emerged as the ace K artist the Rays envisioned when they dealt Garza to the Cubs years ago, Keuchel has proven his GB ways can be most effective, Cole’s numbers have ascended to match his name and pedigree, Gray’s sophomore season has solidified his place among the aces, and Starling has grown into a balanced stud with 30/30 potential.

TOP 25

1.       OF Bryce Harper, Munchkins

2.       1B Paul Goldshmidt, Ring

3.       OF Nelson Cruz, Anal

4.       OF Justin Upton, One Nut

5.       SP Max Scherzer, Keepin

6.       3B Josh Donaldson, Anal

7.       SP Felix Hernandez, Urban

8.       OF Mike Trout, MET

9.       SP Zach Grienke, Moose

10.   2B Dee Gordon, Anal

11.   1B Prince Fielder, Donkey

12.   1B Adrian Gonzalez, Donkey

13.   SP Shelby Miller, Montezumas

14.   1B Anthony Rizzo, Montezumas

15.   SP Chris Archer, One Nut

16.   2B Jason Kipnis, Ring

17.   1B Miguel Cabrera, Munchkins

18.   OF Ryan Braun, One Nut

19.   SP Dallas Keuchel, Donkey

20.   SP Gerrit Cole, MET

21.   3B Todd Frazier, Angry

22.   SP Sonny Gray, Donkey

23.   2B Jose Altuve, Cowhide

24.   OF Starline Marte, Montezumas

25.   OF Giancarlo Stanton, Angry

Week 6 Real Rankings

Week 5 Real Rankings

NOTES
- Number one in the standings, number one in the real rankings, number one in your hearts, the Revenge finally had a good week of pitching to match some truly remarkable hitting (6 hitters in the top 50)

- One that note, Dave got a pretty raw deal  this week going against me as he was 5th in the real rankings and had two outings by Salazar and Pineda totalling 2 ER and 27 Ks basically go for naught.

- But as you can see, that's just part for the course for Dave as he's 6th in the Real Rankings and 13th in the Actual Standings. The nice part is that this stuff tends to even out toward the end.

- Conversely, the Real Rankings aren't overly impressed by the hot start of the Munchkins (9th, 3rd in standings) but after a tough week, Shomphe's team bounced back nicely despite trading for Harper after the run and having Dan acquire Felix on a start day.

- I remember going through mounds of medical reports before the raft trying to see who was worth drafting among the recovering SPs and who was not. I was pretty comfortable with Cobb, Smyly, and Bailey, but perhaps I shouldn't have been. Goes to show you the recovery from arm injuries isn't always smooth. Jarrod Parker is another. Ryu still hasn't come back either. Richards is the only one bouncing back, but his was  a freak leg injury.

- Believe it or not, we are officially almost one-quarter way through the season. Which means its officially time to start dealing with the realities of your squad. Is there enough production to justify holding or is it time to cut bait and go to the list of very intriguing wire options (really, love a lot of the names out there, especially on offense). No reason to start selling now, but certainly a good time evaluate. There's still lots of time left.




TOP 20
1. OF Nelson Cruz, Anal

2. 1B Paul Goldshmidt, Ring
3.  OF Bryce Harper, Munchkins
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez, Donkey
5. SP Felix Hernandez, Urban
6. OF Mike Trout, MET
7. 3B Josh Donaldson, Anal
8. 1B Anthony Rizzo, Montezumas
9. OF Justin Upton, One Nut
10. SP Dallas Keuchel, Donkey
11. SP Zach Grienke, Moose
12. C Stephen Vogt, Sexual
13. 2B Jose Altuve, Cowhide
14. 2B Dee Gordon, Anal
15. 1B Eric Hosmer, Prestige
16. OF Brett Gardner, Urban
17. SP Maz Scherzer, Keepin
18. SP Shelby Miller, Montezumas
19. SP Sonny Gray, Donkey
20. OF Giancarlo Stanton, Angry