Trade Review: One Nut and Overrated

One Nut recieves:
SP Felix Hernandez SEA

Overrated receives:
SS/3B Hanley Ramirez LAD

This swap made a lot of sense considering the needs of the two parties. Russ has had pitching coming out of his ears all season but has been suffering through one of Mark Reynolds' trademark slumps, while Jason had two solid left infield guys in Reyes and Headley but lacked a true ace. Having an "ace" (excellent four category production) isn't terribly important in fantasy provided you have many steady performers, but Jason does not. He has a lot of volatile guys who can dominate one week and shit the bed the next, so in this case, an ace that is extremely consistent can be a great benefit. With no positional need and other guys who are capable of filling the UTIL role, it was a smart move to deal Hanley - even if he is insanely hot right now - and get one of the few young pitchers who continually dominates year to year. That said, I worry about Headley as last year's incredible numbers are looking more and more like an outlier. There's still time though.

Likewise for Russ, it makes sense because, unlike Jason, he's benefited from lots of steady performers like Miller, Kershaw, Lohse and the surprising Nolasco. That said, there been a few chinks revealed recently as Miller has struggled at times (only one of his last six starts have been QSs), Samardjija has been inconsistent, and Ervin just got lit up. He's had some nice hits on Nova, Turner and Danks, but it is tough to trust them fully. All in all, he's still got a great staff, but its a lot less intimidating then it was a month ago. That said, ridding himself of Reynolds really makes this lineup scary as he has power/speed guys up and down the roster. I do wonder if perhaps Hanley is less of a speed guy than he was in the past (only 4 sbs so far). It was bound to happen sometime, but he can still take over when he's hot. Though it is not a huge deal, Russ lost two valuable years in the deal with Hanley 29 (30 in December) and Felix just turning 27 in April. Usually, two years isn't much but when you're talking about the age in which most reach their physical peak, those are two valuable years.

Overall, a star for star trade that made a lot of sense. I do like Hanley, but would want Felix more long term, which leads me to like Jason's side a bit more.

Trade Review: Angry Pirates and Montezumas

Angry Pirates receives
SP Yovani Gallardo MIL
SP Hector Santiago CHW
Round 14
Round 16

Montezumas receives:
SP Jordan Zimmermann WAS
RP Edward Mujica STL
Round 20
Round 22

Its pretty clear Kyle is selling, though still trying to be competitive. In this case, he traded for two of the higher picks he could acquire at this point and got two pretty good bargaining chips that could be traded off later for more picks. Its sort of tough going given the limitations on trading, but it is what it is. Twelve rounds of upgrade can be very useful. Perhaps he could've gotten more if he waited, but waiting a month to make deals is tough if you're already in rebuilding mode. Santiago is a sleeper with his K upside and Axelrod's struggles; he should keep his job even after Peavy comes back and provide value to someone. Gallardo has stunk but was a keeper and has obvious potential, especially if he gets traded to a park that is pitcher-friendly.

My pitching rates have been shitty all year, so eliminating Gallardo alone I should help my whip and era, but Zimmermann is among the best in both categories, so this should be a huge help. If he struck out more guys, he'd be a certifiable ace. But then he would've cost more. Mujica gives me some semblance of a bullpen, so I'll at least beat the teams with no closers. Hopefully I'll be able to add another guy at one point. The loss of the picks left me with nothing rounds 14-16, which could make it difficult to pull off any deal prior to the two-week open trading window.

Week 14 Real Rankings

Trade Review: Sexual and Urban

Sexual receives:

RP Jonathan Papelbon PHI

SP Jeremy Hellickson TB

14^th rounder

20^th rounder

Urban receives:

SS/2B Jurickson Profar TEX

SP Phil Hughes NYY

23^rd rounder

23^rd rounder

There is a lot going on with this deal that is to like and dislike for both teams. I’m going to start off by calling Hughes and Hellickson a wash, which might be surprising to some. But Hellickson lacks the strikeout potential of Hughes, and, according to his peripherals, he played well over his head the past two years before coming back to Earth (and a bit lower) this year. Both have similar xFIPs (4.43 for Hughes, 4.05 for Hell boy). Hughes has a pretty ridiculously low 29.2 GB%, 1.50 HR/9, and high BABIP at .314, which surpasses the less ridiculous numbers from Hellickson of 40.0%, 1.20, and .290. Both have been unlucky, but Hughes moreso. Both are liable to get blown up on any given day. Hell boy has a strikeout disadvantage, but has played better of the two as of late. Both are young. Neither are keepers. Lets move on.

The part that jumps off the page is the inclusion of Profar, a consensus top prospect and potential top keeper for years to come. I always thought he was somewhat overrated given the lack of true projectable power, but certainly he’s a dynamic talent with potential to help across the board at a valuable position in the future. Given the fact that Mike used a valuable keeper spot to hang on to him this year -- despite the lack of clear playing time -- leads me to think he thought highly of the youngster. So, I am a bit surprised he’s “only” getting 12 rounds and Paps for him. It’s not insignificant certainly, but it’s also not a tremendously high pick in the grand scheme (ceiling of the 14^th in 2013 draft: DomBrown, Teheran, Jim Johnson, Romo/ floor: Rutledge, Motte, ASoriano, Teixera, Hanrahan, Berkman). However, it is the maximum he could receive at this point, which leads me to believe he doesn’t want to wait a month and a half to get a better pick from the noncontenders, which he surely could. But waiting means lost production.

Paps will definitely be more valuable than Profar this year, and Mike gets a good enough pick upgrade that its hard to fault him. The pick could’ve been much better, but I can’t blame him for going all out now rather than later in his attempt to bring this team back from the dead in his first year. I also don’t fault Dan, though I wonder about his prospects for this season certainly. I do know he now has Bryce, Machado, and Profar, which could be an incredible threesome in a couple years, while Startling Marte and Dom Brown may not be far behind him.

Trade Review: Cowhide and Urban

Urban receives:

1B/2B/3B/OF Matt Carpenter STL

OF Nate Schierholtz CHC

16^th rounder

Cowhide receives:

OF Desmond Jennings TB

1B/3B/OF Todd Frazier

23^rd rounder

Interesting deal. Certainly, Carpenter has been the best player this year and was a great pick for Dave in the 19^th (or 13^th) round. The stats say Dan is definitely getting the better side of the deal, but the promise lies with Dave. This is particularly true for Jennings, who has undeservedly been a perennial keeper despite his lack of on base skills. However, it’s the 20/40 potential everyone has waited for and its shown glimpses of showing up this season, particularly in the power department. Though it seems like he’s been around forever, he’s still just 26 so there’s reason to believe he will improve.  Certainly, he provides some category juice potential that makes this a smart move for Dave. Frazier is tough to love. He had a great first month or so, but has really struggled to be consistent. He’s had a pretty good past month and has great power upside but I think he may have been a little too hyped for his own good. Certainly the eligibility at several positions is a benefit.

I don’t mind the move for Dan either, as Carpenter has proven able to be a very effective on base guy, getting on at a .397 clip, with a stellar 60 runs and 7 homers from a multitude of positions. Ideally, the optimal use for a guy like this would be to have a solid option at 2B so you could move him around at will and realize the true value of his flexibility. Schierholtz has a nice overall ranking but he’s just a guy you use when he’s streaking and dump when he’s not. The seven round upgrade with Carpenter makes this a safe but solid deal for Dan, who can again improve on his middle infield – Carpenter/Rutledge is a massive improvement over KJohnson/Crawford. And he has Marte, BUpton, DBrown and Bryce coming back for OFs, so Jennings really was not needed. The problem now being that he has no 1B. Itd be tough to use Carpenter there since you’re sort of losing his positional value, but the waiver options aren’t great either.

Good deal overall. I believe Dave will see the most benefit from it initially, but the seven round upgrade is significant for next season and Carpenter could very well play his way to keeper consideration.

Trade Review: Urban and Montezumas

Urban receives:

2B/SS Josh Rutledge COL

23^rd rounder

Montezuma’s receives:

SP Bud Norris HOU

As a followup from my deal with Anal, I knew Rutledge still had value enough to pull in a decent starter and that’s exactly what I got in Norris. Part of his appeal is his ability to pitch well at home as well as the potential that he’ll be dealt at the deadline, ideally to an NL team not located in Colorado. His K numbers are down, but he’s reeled off eight QS in his last 10 outings, with only one stinker. He’s 28 yo, so perhaps this is the year he takes the next step. Would be good value for me if he did. Overall, I like the combined deals of Kendrick/Norris for Rutledge/Gibson for me. Hopefully the veteran presence will help me gain some stability.

For Dan, it made little sense to continue to deal with the ups and down of Kelly Johnson (4/1/5/1/.225 over the last 30 days) and Brandon Crawford (7/0/3/0/.286) continually, so it was a smart move to grab a guy who prognosticators were pining over going into the year thanks to his 15/15 potential, presence in Colorado, and dual eligibility. If he can light a fire like he did late last season, he could be a huge boon to Dan’s club. He’s proven to have the ability and certainly has the higher upside in this deal, while Norris was solid but replaceable.

Trade Review: Montezumas and Anal

Montezumas receives:

2B Howie Kendrick LAA

Anal receives:

SP Kyle Gibson MIN

One of those rare offers with no counter involved. For me, I saw it as an opportunity to improve my UTIL/Bench spot in the long run while upgrading the 2B position while Gyorko is out. Kendrick, who I owned at one point during the year and dropped, is having a very good albeit unspectacular year and is on pace for a solid 72/18/76/12/.362 season. Amazing that he was never drafted by anyone. He isn’t known for his on base skills, but he was always touted as a prospect that could hit for high average so a decent walk rate could result in a good obp in his age 29 season.

Meanwhile, Andrew obviously thought a lot of Gibson as a prospect and had Aaron Hill back and productive, so he took the opportunity to possibly improve his already impressive pitching staff. It does give him both GCole and Gibson and its hard to count on consistent production from rookies, but theres obviously upside for both. Gibson benefits from a favorable home ballpark. He’s never been a huge K guy, but certainly has the ability to miss bats.