Friday, September 28, 2012

One Nut, Two Championships - Profile of a Champion

It takes some luck to become a champion in High & Tight. It takes skill to win multiple championships.

Up until this year, only Dagan had won more than one championship (three) and with his recent crown, Jason became only the second two-time winner in the history of H&T.

Deservedly maligned over the years for his often insane trade proposals, the One Nut Wonder pulled off a doozy in one of the first trades of the year, capitalizing on Emilio Bonifacio’s quick start and trading him to Andrew along with Henderson Alvarez and next year’s second rounder in exchange for Konerko, CJ Wilson, and an eight rounder.  For all the uproar over Troy trades, this was easily the biggest take of the year. Jason squeezed all of the quality out of Wilson, then dealt him away to Casten much later in the year for the second rounder he lost in the initial trade. A ballsy move considering he was in the thick of the race for the regular season championship. He received some flak, but ultimately he was the one smiling in the end.

“(That was) easily my gutsiest deal of the year,” he said.  “I had no idea that deal would work out that well, but at the time, I thought it was good value and my plan was to swing that 8th rounder into a pitcher of similar quality, which ultimately proved to very difficult to do.

“For me, it’s always about value. If I feel like I am getting the best overall value in a deal I will pull the trigger. I think some people say that, but don't have the balls to pull the trigger on a deal sending a great pitcher like CJ Wilson to arguably my stiffest competition for picks”

Ironically, Jason started the season whining about how much he hated the draft (even though he should’ve been thanking the fantasy gods for Braun’s successful avoidance of a suspension). He had dealt a lot of picks the year prior and sacrificed draft position in 2012, which left him with large gaps in between picks – time to think about every player going off the board that he could’ve had.  When he went to draft, he often discovered the player he wanted went right before he was queued up.

He wasn’t the only one who hated his draft, debuting at #11 in the weekly power rankings initially.  And for good reason. He kept Utley and drafted Howard, neither of which appeared in a lineup until very far into the season. He picked a mediocre catcher (Yadier – ended up being an MVP candidate) and was starting Mike Carp and Gordon Beckham, while his rotation looked weak beyond the top three (Shields, Weaver, MMoore).

That said, the rankings noted never to count out “the Dealer” though and Jason quickly climbed the ladder, sprung by some good early trades and draft surprises.

Afterthoughts such as Molina, Kyle Lohse, and Melky Cabrera suddenly became high-performing mainstays. Meanwhile first rounder Adam Jones started to show off his massive potential, and Matt Moore, though he struggled at times, was a key ace down the stretch. And Chris Perez shook off initial rust to be one of a handful of closers to last the entire season.

That said, his keepers initially looked awful. Hanley and Shields struggled with consistency, while Alex Gordon never showed the power he did in 2011 and Utley was shelved. Weaver was his true ace self and Braun continued his reign as fantasy’s top player, but there were a lot of holes, make no mistake about it. He methodically spackled the holes with guys like Omar Infante (later dealt for Beckett) Brandon Phillips (acquired for the surprising Vogelsong) Samardzjia, Middlebrooks, Janssen, Marmol, and Clippard, then later trading a couple picks for the surprising AJ Burnett.

While there were some regretful drops along the way (Rios, Frieri, among them), Jason made the case for the active owner. If you ever tried to offer him a trade, you realized you never could because he had already maxed out his six offers. Jason said he feels compeled to always have 5-6 offers out there or he feels like he’s being lazy (though he admits this may be quelled a bit now that Troy is no longer with us).
“I actually tried to improve my offers this year as opposed to the pure volume approach of these past,” he said. “Most of you will probably find that hard to believe, but I did try to put myself in the shoes of the person I was proposing the deals to in order to make better use of everyone's team.”

Given the deals he’s been able to pull off, it’s hard to blame him for the sometimes lopsided offers. That said, the deal perhaps most responsible for his championship was one that looked questionale at the time, when he dealt Phillips and Konerko-- two long-time keepers -- and a 18th (last) rounder for Headley, Willingham, and a 9th rounder. At the time, Headley was having a good season but wasn’t quit projecting to play up to clear-cut keeper. He is now. Headley ripped through the competition throughout the playoffs, while Willingham continued his surprisingly consistent production and may even be a keeper himself.

“That was probably my second most important move of the season,” he said. “Headley is apparently a monster and Willingham is also keeper worthy. I gave away to fringe keepers for two better keepers and got a pick upgrade. Thanks Gib!”

Meanwhile, dealing Moore and Melky for Yovani and Choo was also key down the stretch, even though he had to give up perhaps the most promising young arm outside of DC.  Jason did an excellent job picking up hot guys at the right time in exchange for guys who had gone cold injured, as Melky, Middlebrooks, and Konerko were not going to be much help. Meanwhile, he was rewarded for his faith in Utley and Rollins, who were solid throughout the playoffs.

Jason entered the matchup with Russ confidently after dispatching Casten quite handedly, 7-2-1. He had a nice set up with 2-3 more double starts for his best pitchers like Weaver, while some of Russ’ most important pieces were hurting, namely Hamilton and CarGo, and Trout had slowed his torrid pace.
“Its obviously helpful when your team is healthy, but it’s even better when most of your guys are still in the playoff hunt as they generally play every day,” he said. “I (thought I had it won) Friday night when he had 5 starters going and only one of them ended up with a quality start and he fell behind big time in WHIP and a little in ERA. It allowed for me to sit my starters on Sunday without risk.”

Jason said he and Russ have a long history, which might’ve been the reason there was no trash talking or dialogue at all between the teams during the week.

“We have come a long way from our days of mindless bickering. I think there is a definite feeling of mutual respect. I know there is on my end anyway.  He always has a competitive team and he absolutely was a team I feared throughout the regular season.”

Another reason for the lack of trash talk  was simply to appease the fantasy gods. Obviously, they were pleased with him. Perhaps that was because he refrained from simply giving up next year’s draft in exchange for this championship. In fact, he’s in better shape than some teams that weren’t even in contention, with only one hole in the middle of the draft (7th) and two picks in round 9-11.

With that, Jason is in excellent shape to repeat. He’s got excess keepers to deal if he can find a buyer with Braun, Weaver, Hanley, Headley, AJones, Willingham, Gallardo standing out and Choo, AGordon, Utley and Howard as possibilities.

Still, it’s too early to look to next season. That’s for the rest of us. He should feel comfortable reveling in the glory.

“(It feels) like all of the time and energy I put into fantasy baseball was worth it. It’s almost a feeling of relief,” he said.  “I don't know what to do with myself without constantly having to check my scores or the latest fantasy news.

“I think I might have a problem.”

A problem we’d all love to have right now.

Monday, September 3, 2012

PLAYOFF PREVIEW



Well, that was interesting, remarkable actually. Brandon finished third (1.5 games out) and Jason fell a game short of winning the regular season championship. Meanwhile, at the other end of the fight to the playoffs, Brian got edged out, falling a game short. This is the reason active management is so necessary – every single decision can mean the difference between getting nothing or 25% of the pool, or being a playoff team or not. Deciding to start or not start someone could seemingly just cost you the WHIP category for the week, but can ultimately keep you on the outside looking in. Tough luck for the former champ, but bravo for sticking with it and making it interesting all the way to the end.

The playoffs feature five of the original teams (Jason joined in 2007) and three former champions. A lot of the top teams didn’t have great weeks and there are a few limping into the playoffs. But it all comes down to who heats up over the next three weeks. In 2011, Pierce ended the regular season in mediocre fashion, going 23-23-4 over his last five weeks, then he got hot and took out Lars, myself and Dagan on his way to his first championship. Six teams made it in, and it’s anyone’s game. Now, to the matchups:

GRUMPY vs. Cowhide – I give Dave credit for making it back into the hunt and into the playoffs, but I don’t give him much of a chance here. In my mind, Casten still has the best team even though he’s the third seed. An overpowering offense and four double starts gives him a big advantage. However, Dunn’s oblique and 14-15 record in his last three matchups against playoff teams shows this team is not infallible. For Dave, he had an amazing run around the all star break, when he went an incredible 47-6-7 over six weeks, which vaulted him toward the top of the standings. But he’s faced three playoff teams the last three weeks and limped into the playoffs with a 5-24-1 record in that period. Dave and Brandon split the season series with Brandon getting the upperhand 11-8-1. David has his work cut out for him against Goliath, but that’s why they play the game.

Ring vs. Montezumas – It just wouldn’t feel right to be in the playoffs and not have to matchup against Dagan. This will be the fourth time the top two teams in the all-time standings have faced eachother in the playoffs and Dagan has had my number each time, including the epic 2006 championship that ended in a 4-4 tie (ERA was the tie breaker, logically…. grrr). Still, the combined score of those games was a close 16-12-2 and this week will probably be no different. Votto is supposed to be back, which should help Dagan, who also had three double starts while I have none. The pitching rates may make the difference here. While my team has been up and down all season, Dagan has been pretty consistent, only losing five matchups overall. We only played eachother once and it was another crazy battle that came down to the last day (I won 7-3). This too should be a close one.

POWER RANKINGS

1.
Team:  THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS
Manager: Brandon
Seed: 3
Notable draft picks (on roster): Brandon Morrow, Max Scherzer, Adam Dunn, Jonathan Niese, Joel Hanrahan, Rafael Betancourt
Notable free agents: Marco Estrada
How they got here: Casten had a very balanced team despite some noteable injury issues throughout, lead by a strong core of keepers (Miggy, Cutch, Reyes, Heyward and Pujols) and a number of trades involving 2013 picks. He devoted as much to going for it this year as he did in 2011 preparing for this year. Like Russ, his draft wasn’t particulary great to start – Wieters, Garza, Beachy, Hanson, and Luebke were his first five picks – disappointing, though mostly due to injuries. But he went on a strong run after that, highlighted by Dunn, who has been a beast. He’s been aided by having a rare strong, healthy, and employed bullpen -- probably a big reason he only had to use 15 transactions. In fact he had almost as many trades as free agents pickups (11).
Where the are going: Casten has as good of a chance as anyone to take this. He’s certainly devoted the resources to it. Five guys with more than 24 homers and five with more than 80 rbi his offense will be tough for anyone to handle. His pitching is beatable though, with Harang, Capuano, Wilson and Halladay inconsistent as of late and Fiers and Estrada certainly no sure things. His closers are great, but it’s a matter of opportunity (seven total saves the past two weeks).

2.
Team:  Clayton & King
Manager: Russ
Seed: 1
Notable draft picks (on roster): Mike Trout, David Freese, Matt Harrison, Jordan Zimmerman, Alejandro De Aza, Jason Kipnis
Notable free agents: Wade Miley, Alcides Escobar
How they got here: Buoyed by strong keepers (Cano, Kershaw, Felix, Hamilton, Cargo, Wainright), Russ took a solid draft and ran with it to the regular season championship. The obvious highlight is Trout, who could be the draft pick of the century. It’s always tempting to deal a player with such early success and hype, so kudos to Russ for sticking out the month he was in the minors and holding on. His season was all the more impressive considering the failures of his first five, very high draft picks – Crawford, Berkman, JMontero, Avila, Hardy. Grabbing guys like Nova, De Aza, Harrison, Kipnis and, of course Trout made all the difference. In total, Russ went 65-34 in offensive categories, which is pretty impressive.
Where the are going: With KMorales suddenly productive and Hamilton in hit mode, the offense is balanced, though it can be inconsistent. The pitching staff is interesting and a bit top heavy, with the bottom more than a little worrisome. While its important to consider his staff had been shaped quite a bit by streaming for the past week, he won’t be able to stream going forward. At least he’ll have a week to figure out what wire guys he actually wants in his run to the championship.



3.
Team:  One Nut Wonders
Manager: Jason
Seed: 2
Notable draft picks (on roster): Adam Jones, Chris Perez, Yadier Molina
Notable free agents: Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Clippard, Greg Holland, Casey Janssen
How they got here: Jason overcame the mediocrity of some of his keepers (Shields, Utley, Gordon) to gain a first round bye, swapping in and out of first place with Brandon and Russ throughout the year. He did so with, of course, a lot of trades and some strong early draft picks in Matt Moore, Jones, Rollins, Melky, Bonfacio, Perez and Vogelsong. Of course only two of those guys are still on the team, but its sort of ironic given how much he was stressing about his lack of picks during the draft considering how well he did. Still, he obviously learned something as he’s in pretty good shape for picks last year and certainly didn’t lessen the number of trades.
Where the are going: Grabbing Headly and Willingham near the deadline might’ve been his best deal of the year and has filled some holes on offense, which doesn’t have some of the names as other top seeds, but certainly has the ability to put up great weeks. The pitching would concern me though. While Lester has been better and certainly Beckett’s trade made him at least a consideration to remain on the roster, Burnett has faltered as of late, Garcia is coming back from and injury, and Hanson is having issues. There’s a lot of guys here that can place a big wet turd in the punch bowl, but they could also be great. Enjoy the break, then hold your breath, Jason.

4.
Team:  Montezuma’s Revenge
Manager: Adam
Seed: 5th
Notable draft picks (on roster): Jake Peavy, Nick Swisher
Notable free agents: Colby Rasmus
How they got here: The Revenge opened the year with a team of young keepers, most of whom underperformed (CSantana, Hosmer, JUpton, Lawrie), then used top draft picks on Pineda, CPena, CLewis, Storen, and GFloyd, making for a rather bumpy season. Grabbing guys like James McDonald and Peavy late were crucial to keeping the team afloat. Active management and some key trades made this team what it is, namely the acquisition of Sale and Desmond who were later traded as keepers, and Aramis for KDrabek and Harang. Lead by Hamels, Peavy and Dickey, the pitching staff was very good at times and helped rack up wins, going 65-32-3.
Where the are going: The offense pales in comparison to most in the league, but is capable of good weeks and late season production from early season disappointments like Hosmer and Upton could make the difference. The offense has been solid lately, though Rasmus’ star has fallen fast. Pitching will be key as it was my greatest strength during the season and a lot will depend on the performance of late season acquisitions McCarthy, Minor, Fister, BAnderson, and HStreet.

5.
Team: Ring of Fire
Manager: Dagan
Seed: 3
Notable draft picks (on roster): Matt Latos, Paul Goldschmidt, Johnny Cueto
Notable free agents: Danny Espinosa, AJ Pierzynski, Anthony Rizzo, Phil Hughes, Trevor Plouffe
How they got here: Dagan had some nice hits at the beginning of the draft, but really missed badly later on. But he made up for it with some strong free agent selection. His offense has really missed Votto, but he should be back for the first day of the playoffs. Unfortunately, it looks like Papi may be done for the year though. If Ortiz, Votto, and Kemp were healthy the entire season, you have to think Ring would be looking at a bye week coming up. Of course, as I’ve stated, the starters are inconsistent and I don’t think enough was done to improve this area at the deadline. His staff was a headwind during the season, only going 44-40-7. But given the injuries to his keepers (Youk included), it impressive he’s even here.
Where the are going: The offense includes a lot of streaky guys and unfortunately for Dagan, many of them are in the midst of a slow spell as the playoffs start and it would be a lot to expect Votto to produce immediately. But guys like Bruce, Votto, and Kemp could also explode suddenly. The biggest problem may be pitching, with really only Cueto producing at a high level the entire season. Latos and McDonald are certainly capable and Lincecum has been decent lately, so a lot will depend on how the wind blows.

6.
Team:  Cowhide Joyride
Manager: Dave
Seed: 6th
Notable draft picks (on roster): Madison Bumgarner, Craig Kimbrel, Yoenis Cespedes, Kenley Jansen, Austin Jackson
Notable free agents: Alfonso Soriano, Ernesto Frieri, Ryan Ludwick
How they got here: Dave’s had a pretty interesting season as it looked like his lack of production from keepers (Lincecum, RZimmerman, Weeks) would bury him. But he remained active throughout and traded his way into a big hole for 2013, but he’s got a good team that could win it all. Unfortunately for Dave he had a good draft but overreacted to some guys (name dropping/trading EJackson, Rasmus, and Rios). Still, guys like Johan, Bumgarner, Jensen and Kimbrel basically performed like keepers throughout much of the year.
Where the are going: Hard to tell. His biggest strength is his bullpen and that took a big blow when Jensen went down and, really, their contribution is limited to namely one category, though he certainly has most of the top K/9 relievers in the game with Kimbrel, Chapman, Frieri, and Jansen. They are capable of putting up the Ks of a good starter for the week, but its all about opportunity. The pitching is suspect with Bumgarner and Price surrounded by a lot of quetons marks, though Maholm and Hellickson have both been pretty good, albeit not spectacular. He needs the others to produce and the offense to do much better than it has (5 hrs in last two weeks).



Monday, August 27, 2012

Final Trade Reviews for 2013

Prestige receives:
1B Freddie Freeman ATL
1B/3B/OF Mark Trumbo LAA
Round 7
Round 11

Angry receives:
1B Adrian Gonzalez BOS
Round 14
Round 18

The most fascinated trade before the deadline was its last. The most titillating detail, I think, was Lars recouping Trumbo whom he let go in the worst trade of the year (Feliz and Gardner for Trumbo and Buchholz). Meanwhile, he gets Freeman, who won’t be 22 until September and quietly had a good season considering his injury issues. I think he blows up next year and I think Trumbo has proven he’s more than a three outcomes guy. Lars also acquires his third first rounder for next year and probably has situated himself in the best position for 2013 among the noncontenders outside of Chris.

Though he was coming along at a great rate, AGon was not his old self this year and you have to wonder if that had something to do with the team he was on and his comfort with Bobby V. The trade that shook the world had not occurred at the time this deal was executed, but I think it helps Adrian despite the larger park. He’s proven he can hit balls out of any park and Dodger Stadium is not Petco. Meanwhile, he’ll actually be in a better lineup next year and be in SoCal, playing in familiar parks against familiar foes. He gave up a lot but he got a top-of-the shelf keeper to go with his young guys - Giancarlo, Starlin, Lawrie, JMontero, and Middlebrooks.
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Anal receives:
SP Justin Masterson CLE
Round 19

Ring receives:
RP Steve Cishek
Round 20

Cishek has been an underrated reliever while Masterson might be the most frustrating player to own this because he teases you with enough talent to prevent you from dropping him, but every few games he just blows big time. If the great Oz indeed gives Bell back his gig, Cishek is droppable, but no big loss here with a late round one round upgrade.
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Urban receives:
SP Matt Moore TB
OF Melky Cabrera SF
Round 12

One Nut receives:
OF Shin Soo Choo CLE
SP Yovani Gallardo MIL
Round 16

As long as Melky doesn’t end up being one of Dan’s keepers, I like this trade for both teams. Moore is the best player here. He has shown his talent over the last month or so and should be a high-end keeper for years to come. Gallardo can be really good but really frustrating because his results are not dependent on the matchup (thus allowing you to mix and match), but really just a matter of whether he decides to have command or not. He can be incredible and then stink suddenly. His ERA was above 4.00 not too long ago, but a string of good outings have it back around 3.60. As a keeper, I consider him low end even though he’s been kept basically every year. Sure 200 and 207 ks the previous two seasons has been great, but the 3.84 and 3.52 eras and 1.37 and 1.22 whip place him squarely in the tier of the barely kept SPs from last year (Garza, CWilson, Latos, etc). He’s been kept on name recognition mostly. Moore, meanwhile, is the real deal and I predict will be a top 10 SP in 2013. Choo is solid all around contributor who is not a flashy keeper but a guy who contributes in all five categories. Jason stands to benefit from this deal in the short term providing Yovani can finish strong, which he has done in the past.

The Melk Man (or the Juice Man) was playing way over his head the last two year and we now know why. I would’ve hated him as a keeper even if he wasn’t caught. There’s just nothing that makes that .346 average appear sustainable and, for our purposes, it was only 44 points below his OBP, meaning he doesn’t walk, meaning if he hit .270 like he should, his OBP would be around .315. This makes the good not great 111/15/80/17 line he was projecting to have before he was busted all that more unlikely to replicate. When you factor in the additional drug testing he’ll face upon his return, we’re looking at more of a late round flier than a keeper. That said, Dan got the best player and a good upgrade, so I think he did fine.
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Donkey receives:
SP Ben Sheets ATL
Round 14

Clayton receives:
SP Scott Diamond MIN
Round 15

Diamond has had a nice season, but you have to wonder whether its just a smoke show that will eventually reveal a mediocre middle of the rotation guy. 3.04/1.21 is pretty good, but 71 k in 130 ip is not. Unfortunately for Russ, he had to give up on Sheets who had been on a incredible run and almost made him look brilliant in picking up the oft-injured former star. When the most common adjective used before your name is “oft-injured” it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s injured again. Not sure Diamond is the guy who should replace him, but one round is basically nothing, so why not see if you can find a diamond in the rough…. My apologies for the pun. That was awful.

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Ring receives:
SP Ryan Dempster TEX
SP James McDonald PIT
Round 16
Round 16

Donkey receives:
RP Jared Burton MIN
SP Wandy Rodriguez PIT
Round 12
Round 14

If Dagan was acquiring these two in April, this would be a great trade but both Dempster and McD have seen their stars plummet since the All Star break – McDonald rediscovered his command issues while Dempster left the cozy confines of the NL for a ballpark known for turning routine flyballs into homers. Too bad because both of these guys had eras around 2.00 for much of the season. Now Dagan has to hope the recent volatility was just a blip and that they turn things back around as their teams stay in the hunt for the playoffs. Six rounds for these two isn’t too bad, but I wonder if Wandy isn’t just as likely to return back to his old self as Demps or McD.
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Montezumas receives:
RP Huston Street SD
Round 15

Donkey receives:
Round 14

Pissed off the only team with a waiver position higher than me put in a claim on a disabled player, I sucked up my pride and traded Chris a pick to grab one of the better closers in the league this year. Reports are good he should be available for the playoffs.
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Cowhide receives:
SP Jeremy Hellickson TB
Round 18

Donkey receives:
SP Homer Bailey
Round 13

Solid and unspectacular, Hellickson is a good fit for Dave’s club, which has been hurt by volatility over the course of the season. Homer sort of defines volatility, which is frustrating because he can be really good at times. Dave moves his highest remaining pick in this trade, leaving him without a pick for the first seven rounds (at least for now). Five rounds seems a bit high given the trade that were occurring during this time period. An interesting factoid is that, with this trade, depending on how the draft balls bounce, Chris could actually be done drafting before Dave makes his first pick. For an owner that is typically pretty quiet, Chris did a masterful job working his roster and now will be done drafting in the eighth round. Its safe to assume we’ll be including Chris in the top tier of teams in 2013.
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Monetezumas receives:
SS Derek Jeter NYY
Round 20

Prestige receives:
SS Stephen Drew ARI
Round 17

I was willing to give Drew some time to prove he was worth keeping as my SS going into the playoffs after showing some signs of life, but he quickly rediscovered his mediocrity. I grabbed one of my keepers from last year and was quickly rewarded with three homers in the first week. With offense not necessarily my team’s strongest area, a solid guy like Jeter is a great update for three rounds.
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Grumpy receives:
SP Mike Fiers
Round 22

Keepin receives:
Round 20

Solid pickup for Casten and good recycling by Pierce, who had recently acquired Fiers in a dump trade with Dave. Fiers has come out of nowhere to have a great rookie season with very good K numbers (96 in 93 ip). Unfortunately, as tends to happen with rooks, his recent outings haven’t been as good and it may be a case where the league is starting to figure him out. Casten better hope its not a trend that is discovered in the first round of the playoffs a 2ip outing with 8er like the one at COL can be a rate killer. Not sure he is worth further digging the draft pick hole that Casten has already dug, but I guess its just two rounds.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Trade Reviews

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Montezumas receives:
SP Mike Minor ATL
SP Brandon McCarthy OAK
Round 17
Round 17

Donkey receives:
SP Edinson Volquez SD
SP James McDonald PIT
Round 12
Round 15

I hated doing this trade since I trade Minor and seven rounds for Volquez a few weeks ago, so I essentially gave Chris like 10 rounds for nothing. That’s what I get for believing in Volquez again after what he did for me last season. I also don’t like the position I’ve put my team in for 2013, but Im certainly better off than some. And Minor has been really great since I originally picked him up; if he falters, Brett Anderson or Niemann are decent insurance. McCarthy could play a key role in my team going forward. He has been pretty consistent when healthy over the past year and dominant at times. If he can end 2012 the way he did 2011, this trade will be well worth it. Chris is by far in the best position for 2013 in terms of picks. If he can dump his 18th before Sunday he could be done drafting after eight rounds in 2013. Not too shabby for someone who gave up 2012 late relative to most.

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Cowhide Joyride receives:
OF Cody Ross BOS
SP Chad Billingsley LAD
SP Homer Bailey CIN
Round 17

Keepin receives:
OF Jason Kubel ARI
SP Michael Fiers MIL
SP Johan Santana NYM
Round 12

Really just don’t like it for Dave. Considering I don’t expect Pierce cared who he was getting back as long as it meant a pick, Dave essentially was dumping Fiers, Kubel, and Johan who have all had good season. He gave up high picks in the deal to get Kubel (8 & 11) and he’s dumping him? He’s a streaky hitter (I know, I traded him when he had six homers after two months) capable of going on the type of runs that bring teams championships. Meanwhile, he gets back another streaky hitter in Ross. And whiel Fiers is a rookie and certainly was no help to him this week, I’d rather have him than Bailey who has been up and down. Billingsley started great, hit the skids, hit the DL and come back slinging, but has always been inconsistent, which makes it tough to rely on him going forward. That said, Johan obviously hit a wall, which is too bad because it was one of Dave’s best picks. Its tough moving on from those guys who carry you at times during the season – especially when it’s a dump trade. I had to do the same with McDonad. Anyhow, five rounds isn’t a lot, but Dave doesn’t have a lot and there is a big difference in the talent differential between 12 and 17 than, say, 19 and 24.

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Grumpy receives:
OF Shane Victorino LAD
Round 22

Sexual Napalm receives:
OF Chris Young ARI
UTL Michael Cuddyer COL
Round 12

I really like this move for Mike to get 10 rounds for a guy having an off, albeit decent, year. He also got Young who isn’t a bad guy to have as a fall back keeper if you need one. He’s awfully inconsistent, but has had awesome seasons that make you dream of what he could do with a season of consistent production. Victorino was a Troy favorite, but never a guy I thought warranted year to year keeper consideration. He usually has good seasons, but he’s been pretty inconsistent in steals and OBP and only mediocre in the other categories. Cuddyer has had a good season and has value in his position flexibility alone. He would likely be able to find another trade partner for Cuddyer if he was healthy and he still could. The bottom line here though is 10 rounds is a nice return for Shane and Casten now has no 1st or 2nd rounders or picks from rounds 6 to 13.

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One Nut receives:
3B Chase Headley SD
OF Josh Willingham MIN
Round 15

Sexual Napalm receives:
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
1B Paul Konerko CHW
Round 24

I would’ve liked this fine if there was no picks involved, but there’s really no reason I see for Jason to get nine rounds when he’s getting the two players having the better seasons. I mean, Willingham is one of a handful of players with 30 bombs and he’s been consistent with the OBP as well. And Headley has played himself into keeper consideration (note: better than ARod, Kennedy, and Kendrys… just sayin), while both doing it in massive parks. I’d rather have those two rest of the year, but would probably lean toward Phillips and Konerko as keepers – especially for a team practically building from scratch like Mike. They have the historical production to be considered more likely to be high quality in ’13 compared to two guys having years far off their career norms. So, keeping that in mind, one team gets the players for the future one gets them for the season. Straight up, it’s a fair deal. I didn’t quite understand the confusion related to the picks, but nine rounds is just too much – particularly when Mike is dealing from a position of strength.  But, again, its hard for him to know that, or have any idea of the number of deals that happen in this league (there very well may be six on Sunday alone). Bottom line is I think he’s got better keepers than he did when he inherited the team, so that’s a plus.

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Sexual Napalm receives:
OF Corey Hart MIL
Round 14

Grumpy receives:
OF Hunter Pence SF
SP Chris Capuano LAD
SP Aaron Harang LAD
Round 21

In the new guy’s first move, I don’t think he got what he could have. Hart and Pence are more or less equals. Neither steals much anymore and both have been hit or miss in the OBP department (Hart: .332 career, Pence .340). Pence has an advantage in the RBI and R depts, while Hart has more power. In the end, I’d probably rather have Hart but its not by much and could change depending on if Pence changes teams again. So, if you take that out of it, you get Capuano and Harang for seven rounds. Capuano may not be a keeper, but he’s certainly pitched like one (135k/3.11era/1.20whip/16qs) while Harang has been a very useful player (109/3.76/1.39/14). I just think they demanded more in return than seven rounds. Given Troy’s lack of activity, it would’ve been more useful to request two picks for two pitchers. Seven rounds for Capuano isn’t awful, but he’s played up to at least 10 rounds by himself. Add three rounds for Harang and you’ve got a fair deal.
Not awful and certainly Mike is challenged coming in not knowing exactly how to value some of these guys and only have a week to do it. So, keeping that in mind, a quality first move.

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Clayton receives:
RP Jim Johnson
Round 21

Prestige receives:
Round 17

Nice move by Russ. A good closer this year for four rounds is a nice addition and for Lars its about what the going rate is now. Might’ve been able to get another round or two if he held out and tried to create some competition for one of the safer options available, but can hardly blame him for making the move. Putz, Paps and Johnson are a nice trio heading into the playoffs.

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Montezuma’s receives:
RP Jason Motte STL
SP Doug Fister DET
Round 23

BILLY CHAPEL receives:
RP Ryan Cook OAK
SP Chris Capuano
Round 21

Ummm… sorry?

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

More trade reviews

Cowhide receives:
SP Jason Vargas SEA
Round 19

Donkey receives:
SP Tommy Milone OAK
Round 14

Understanding Milone’s limitations, I don’t see the real value here for Dave since he’s essentially acquiring the same pitcher but further hurting his draft status for 2013. Their lines are eerily similar, with the same Ks and Vargas besting the youth by 0.22 in era, 0.08 in whip and 5 qs (20 less innings for Milone). Both are great at home and crap on the road (Milone – 5.77/1.53, Vargas – 4.55/1.28), though Vargas is a bit more tolerable. Perhaps the greatest difference is Vargas is unlikely to lose his rotation spot, while Milone may be relegated to bullpen duty when McCarthy and Anderson are ready. Still, five rounds? I know Chris drives a hard bargain but I don’t think there was a rush to acquire JV and Dave’s 2013 is getting more depressing than Andrew’s 2012, with no picks in the first five rounds and three picks in the first eight. He might be able to improve that some in the offseason, but he doesn’t have a lot of spare keepers floating around that roster from what I can see. Maybe he’ll just trade 2014 picks to upgrade his 2013 roster, or just start the year in rebuild mode. Either way, Dave and Casten (10 picks in final three rounds) – two teams that had favorable draft positions going into 2012 – are looking at what many of us 2011 contenders remember as a pretty painful experience.
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Cowhide receives:
3B Chipper Jones ATL
Round 21

Anal receives:
OF Michael Brantley CLE
Round 18

Three rounds for a bench bat. I guess its needed given Zimmerman’s history of injuries, but you better hope they aren’t both injured at the same time. Dave has a lot of OFs so it makes sense to get someone who can play a different position. Chipper also plays quite well when healthy, though Brantley hasn’t exactly been a slouch this year either. Proactively selling off parts like this is a very smart move for Andrew and he could use more of it in the next 11 days.
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One Nut receives:
Dan Straily
Round 24

Angry Pirates receives:
Round 22

Can’t really blame either team here, but I particularly like the move by Kyle to acquire a part and sell it off again. Maybe would’ve waited another start to see if I could get a couple more rounds of upgrade, but still nice to move up from a round that really doesn’t produce many contributors. For Jason, I found it odd considering no one knew who Straily was before this year, but quickly skyrocketed up prospect charts and the minor leagues. I wonder if he’ll stick in the rotation for the year though given McCarthy and Anderson’s pending return and the fact that the A’s are still very much in the hunt. But, then again, it is just two rounds.
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Grumpy receives:
C Joe Mauer MIN
Round 23

Keepin receives:
C Carlos Ruiz PHI
Round 16

Funny how you differently you can look at trades over the course of a matter of months. Ruiz has been amazing this year, so its unfortunate he could be lost for some time with this foot injury. He’s always had good OBP numbers but really shined this year, contributing in power and run production. Alas, his useful life is over and with guys like Saltalamacchia, Pierzynski, Ruiz, and Yadier leading the way for catchers this year, makes you wonder why you even drafted one in the first place. Mauer has had a fine season. Doesn’t look like he’ll ever have the 28 HR pop he once displayed but he’ll always be a run producer and have one of the top OBP in the league. Given the swiss cheese nature of Casten’s 2013 draft board and the density of picks in the later rounds, I personally would’ve gone with a wire option with some pop like Rosario or Salty rather than give up seven rounds. Or I would’ve waited until Aug 18th at 10 pm and forced Pierce to take two rounds. But oh well. Pierce has done a nice job lately compiling picks to go with a pretty strong set of keepers, which should help him get closer to returning to glory in 2013.
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Angry Pirates receives:
1B/OF Garrett Jones PIT
Round 13

Clayton & King receives:
1B/OF Kendrys Morales
Roung 18

I like this move for both teams, but particularly for Russ who will have a very capable bench bat/Berkman fill in.  It is hard to put a value on Morales given that he had two years off and has been productive in spurts – probably the primary reason he’s been traded three times this year. No one wants to give up on him, but no one really know what to do with him, particularly since he somehow received OF eligibility this year. Garret Jones can be productive but its typically in bursts that you fail to notice and take advantage of until they’re over. Still, its perplexing, given the talent available at the position, that Russ hasn’t had better options at 1B this year beside a hobbling Berkman, Yonder Alonso, Shelley Duncan, and Jordan Pacheco. Morales will probably be the best player to man first this year and perhaps his only OK production was the result of his time off and he’ll suddenly be his 2010 self.

Kyle again does a nice job selling a part for a pick. Given that there’s players who have had better years than Kendrys sitting on the wire, he did quite well getting five rounds from him. He and Chris are in the best position to dominate the 2013 draft.

Trade Review: Angry and One Nut

One Nut receives:
Round 12

Angry Pirates receives:
3B Will Middlebrooks BOS
Round 20

This trade really hinges upon the keeper-ability of Middlebrooks. Frankly, his production and prospect status point more toward a guy who is in the top 8-12 at his position for the forseeable future with a line that maxes out around 85/25/90/5/.330 – something short of a sure fire keeper, though not out of the question. The issue I see is that I think Kyle already has six better keepers in Stanton, Trumbo, Castro, Lawrie, Freeman, and JMontero. The first five are pretty sure fire and there could be debate as to Montero’s keeperability. I just think his pedigree far surpasses that of Middlebrooks. Even their production isn’t that far off this (understanding Montero’s line includes 100 more abs). Montero is 22 and at a premium position where four-category producers are very rare. He should maintain his C eligibility for at least a few more years and could be a monster. I just think Kyle would’ve been better off keeping what was a pretty nice upgrade for Jason.

For Jason, it mitigates somewhat the Lester move in that he essentially trades Middlebrooks and an injured ARod for Lester. He’s still stuck with the disastrous missteps when they occur, but if Lester turns it around somehow, the payoff could be considerable… literally.

Trade Review: One Nut and Keepin

One Nut receives:
SP Jon Lester BOS
Round 20

Keepin receives:
NYY Alex Rodriguez NYY
Round 13

This trade doesn’t make sense to me for the Nut. I know Jason likes to collect former all-stars, but there was no way I was going near Lester this year. In the playoffs, predictable, steady pitchers are a must and Jason just added to his already ample stable of instability. Sure, this comes with potential high reward, but Lester has been more bad than good this year and it’s significant. He just can’t be trusted. And the way the Sox are going, I just don’t see it suddenly improving. Given the league’s lack of interest in keeping the likes of Cain, CWilson, Pineda, and Garza in 2012, I find it hard to believe he’ll be able to deal off a 5.36 era and 1.41 whip in the offseason – I don’t care what his historical performance is or how many Red Sox fans there are.

That said, I definitely don’t see ARod as a keeper anymore either. Perhaps Pierce wasn’t even looking to acquire ARod and Jason just couldn’t keep him in the DL slot any longer with his injuries. It’s unlikely Pierce gets anything for ARod with the deadline is 12 days away and the 3B on the shelf until September. I bet he wishes he traded Lester a lot sooner, but he’s pretty lucky to get seven rounds at this point.  It ends one of the longer running relationships in the league, with Lester having joined Pierce’s squad five years ago (Jason traded Conor Jackson, JD Drew, Justin Upton, Jon Lester, and Phil Hughes to Pierce for Rick Ankel, Jacoby Ellsbury, Raul Ibanez, Dice-K, and KRod). At least you’ll always have 2012.