Offseason Preview

Unsurprisingly, the current status of most rosters is incomplete, but since we got a head start to the season, I thought it was worthwhile to take a look at where teams stand. Most rosters are either overweight draftboards or keepers, which will even out over time. Minor changes in keepers or draftboards can change this dramatically, but it gives you something to start with as you move forward with trade discussions.

Go to the 2020 Offseason Guide for updated rosters

The ranking below is based on the average rankings in draft board and keepers


Overall

RK	TEAM	KEEPER	DRAFT	AVG
1	Montezuma's Revenge	1	5	3
2	One Nut Wonders	8	2	5
3	Grit Beer and Balls	2	10	6
3	Take the Knebel	3	9	6
5	The Angry Pirates	5	8	6.5
6	Donkey Punchers	11	3	7
7	Ring of Fire	10	5	7.5
8	Sexual Napalm	4	12	8
9	Moose is Loose!	12	5	8.5
9	Knuckle Sandwich	13	4	8.5
9	Cowhide Joyride	14	3	8.5
12	Tomahawk chops	6	13	9.5
12	Anal Hershiser	9	10	9.5
14	Brokeback Moundmen	6	14	10

Keeper Rank

Each player is given a grade of 1-10 based on their 2020 expected output -- not their value as a keeper. I simply take the top highest ranked players.  The more categories they contribute to, the better the score. Scores of 10 are only given to those who contribute to all categories and can be expected to do so again (only Trout, Acuna, Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor, Turner, Betts, Story), so pitchers automatically can't get a perfect score. It's an attempt to be unbiased and someone scientific, but obviously based on my viewpoint.

1. Montezuma’s Revenge (Leech) – With Trout, Soto, Scherzer, Alonso, Tatis, and Chapman, this group is young (besides Max) and talented across positions. With the Donkey trade, there’s no depth left so there's unlikely to be more changes unless Ohtani (SP), Marquez, or Luzardo look great in the spring.

2. Grit Beer & Balls (Shomphe) – Probably more imbalance than one would prefer, but hard to see a rotation of Cole, Degrom, and Corbin ever losing pitching categories. Bellinger and Harper lead the offense, with Escobar and Mondesi worthwhile keepers and LeMahieu, Beni, and EE at least intriguing.

3. Take the Knebel (Frizzell) – Lots of talent and youth, led by Lindor and Devers on the hitting side and Bieber/Flaherty on the pitching. Hiura and Correa have question marks, but potentially huge upside, while Morton, Paddack, Conforto, Realmuto are all keeper-worthy.

4. Sexual Napalm (Gibby) – The only thing holding this group back is the unpredictability of Moncada and Giolito. If they take next steps and Machado rebounds, teamed with JD, Mookie, and Springer, this is perhaps the best group. Robles and Castillo are both keeper worthy and there are other interesting names. 

5. Tomahawk Chops (Woodward) – Doesn’t get much better than Acuna, Bregman, and Verlander. Clevinger is also a top end SP2. There’s a bunch of options for the last two spots, namely Syndergaard, Pham, Albies, and Sano, but each has an issue that makes them less than clear-cut. Lot’s of other interesting names on the roster, but takes some imagination/faith.

6. (TIE) Angry Pirates (Baker) – Yelich and Rendon lead a group that could excel again or fall on its face.  Whether you get the JoRam of 2018 and Soler of 2019 is the biggest question. Muncy and Gallo are solid. Rosario is capable keeper but worse in OBP leagues, while Paxton’s IP hold him back.

6. (TIE) Brokeback Moundmen (Watson) – Turner is the centerpiece, but age/health are a consideration with Donadson, Stras, Rizzo, Kershaw, Darvish, while consistency are potential issues with KMarte, ERod, and Hoskins. LRobert is intriguing, but flawed.

8. One Nut Wonders (Ouellette) – This is a solid, if not spectacular group with Freeman, Boegarts, Abreu, Semien, and Ozuna unlikely to outproduce last year’s solid results. Yordan and Snell could make it a top three group with some minor adjustments. There’s an extra one in there so not sure who the odd one out is. 

9. Anal Hershiser (Simons) – Just slightly behind the previous three teams due mainly to Altuve’s decline and Vlad Jr’s lack of production. If either of those ships are righted, this quickly becomes a top 3 group along with Buehler, Arenado, Marte, and Baez.  Jiminez gives this group another option while CSantana and Lynn had keeper-worth seasons but less than keeper-worthy careers.

10. Ring of Fire (Loisel) – Story is a stud and Suarez proved to be a top 20 player, but there’s some noteworthy declines in long-time ROFers Bryant and Goldy, while Berrios wasn’t nearly as impressive. Mancini needs another year of production to be high level. Minor and Carrasco are names of note.

11. Donkey Punchers (Davidson) – The trades helped this group immensely, even if Bauer was an overpay. Olson and Meadows could be on the brink of superstardom, which would make this group a contender as long as Blackmon and Nola can repeat their annual production and Villar has another top-25 season contributing to all categories.  Franco is probably too far to consider.

12. Moose is Loose (Bishop) – Judge and Bell are sturdy cornerstones and the pitching provides reliable, albeit old, stability in Sale, Grienke, MadBum. The sixth could be consistent Cruz, potential-infused Bichette, or emerging WContreras. Castellanos and Boyd also had noteworthy seasons.

13. Knuckle Sandwich (Scott) – Headlined by Torres and Merrifield, the group requires a lot of faith to be seen as a contender due to GSanchez’s inconsistency and Kepler’s lack of track record. Severino is not clear cut and Senzel didn’t do enough to make him a shoe-in, while Segura disappointed. Could be really good or… not.

14. Cowhide Joyride (Fox) – Well the draftboard is great, but there’s work to do here. Even Giancarlo is hard to count on, while the bloom of CSeager wasn’t what was once promised. Dahl occasionally looks like a keeper and Lux has promise, but Andrus is just OK and no one is left after that.

Draft Board

Team	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	SCORE
Cowhide Joyride (Dave)	3	1	2	1	5	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	134
One Nut Wonders (Jason)	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	113
Donkey Punchers (Jed)	2	1	0	1	3	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	111
Knuckle Sandwich (Chris Scott)	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	109
Montezuma's Revenge (Adam)	0	3	0	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	90
Moose is Loose! (Brian)	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	90
Ring of Fire (Dagan)	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	90
The Angry Pirates (Kyle)	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	85
Take the Knebel (Jeff)	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	79
Anal Hershiser (Justin)	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	77
Grit Beer and Balls (Chris Shomphe)	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	77
Sexual Napalm (Mike)	1	1	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	2	2	2	75
Tomahawk chops (Chad)	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	2	3	1	1	2	1	1	70
Brokeback Moundmen (Matt)	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	60

Final Real Ranking 2019

NOTES

Sorry for missing the last few weeks. Here is the final Real Rankings for the 2019 regular season. Always interesting to see how this comes together as it can differ dramatically from the actual standings at various points during the season.  In this case, every team was within three spots of their actual standings. The top 8 teams in the real rankings are all playoff teams with the exception of Ring of Fire, whose spot was taken by Grit Beer and Balls, which had a very volitile season, as shown in the VAR column.

The most volatile team was actually the top team in the Real Rankings and the Actual Standings, your own neighborhood Montezuma's Revenge. It is interesting to see how volatility comes into play. The Revenge's weekly outputs ranged from 3.1-11.1, while the least volatile team, Tomahawk Chops, came in second in the RR and only ranged from 3.3-8.4. Both teams dominated on "both sides of the ball" with top 3 finishes in hitting and pitching. It will be interesting to see if these two teams go head to head.

However, H2H means anything goes and as we sit here before Friday night's games have started, three of the four lower seeds are ahead for the week. One thing that has always occurred since we went to 14 teams and 8 playoff teams with no bye is that anything goes. All it takes is one bad week and poof the season is over.

So who is hot going into the playoffs, here's the last 4 week average:

1	Montezuma's Revenge	4.5
2	Tomahawk chops	4.8
3	Brokeback Moundmen	5.8
4	Sexual Napalm	6.0
5	Anal Hershiser	6.5
6	Take the Knebel	6.6
7	The Angry Pirates	6.6
8	Ring of Fire	6.7
9	Moose is Loose!	7.0
10	Knuckle Sandwich	8.1
11	One Nut Wonders	8.2
12	Grit Beer and Balls	8.4
13	Donkey Punchers	10.0
14	Cowhide Joyride	11.0

And like the RR and Actual, the cream ultimately rises to the surface with individual players as well. The ranking below of the top 25 shows only a handful of them are non-keepers. They include Max Muncy (7th round), Shane Bieber (8th round), Carlos Santana (9th round), Pete Alonso (14th round), Josh Bell (15th round).

1	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
2	Christian Yelich Mil - OF 	The Angry Pirates
3	Justin Verlander Hou - P 	Tomahawk chops
4	Cody Bellinger LAD - 1B,OF 	Grit Beer and Balls
5	Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF 	Tomahawk chops
6	Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B 	One Nut Wonders
7	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS 	Tomahawk chops
8	Anthony Rendon Was - 3B 	The Angry Pirates
9	Juan Soto Was - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
10	Mookie Betts Bos - OF 	Sexual Napalm
11	Gerrit Cole Hou - P 	Grit Beer and Balls
12	Pete Alonso NYM - 1B	Montezuma's Revenge
13	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
14	Rafael Devers Bos - 3B 	Take the Knebel
15	Carlos Santana Cle - 1B,3B	Anal Hershiser
16	Josh Bell Pit - 1B	Moose is Loose!
17	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 	Anal Hershiser
18	Bryce Harper Phi - OF 	Grit Beer and Balls
19	Shane Bieber Cle - P	Take the Knebel
20	Jacob deGrom NYM - P 	Grit Beer and Balls
21	Max Scherzer Was - P 	Montezuma's Revenge
22	Trevor Story Col - SS 	Ring of Fire
23	Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
24	J.D. Martinez Bos - OF 	Sexual Napalm
25	Josh Donaldson Atl - 3B 	Brokeback Moundmen

Week 17 & 18 Real Rankings

NOTES

Trading has closed on what was a very interesting opening trading period. We once again had 22 trades occur within two weeks, 8 of which occurred in one day! During the period, we saw five first round picks changed hands, leaving Jason and Dave with three each. Meanwhile, Jed and Dave will finish drafting in the the 13th round if nothing changes (it usually does though).

New Chris sold a few pieces and improved his board, but all in all there were a lot more buyers this year, which shows in some of the interesting pieces that were being traded for. While some contenders managed to improve their rosters without hurting their draftboard too much and absorbing many late picks, the Moundmen and Napalm are putting it all on the line and have only two and three picks in the first 7 rounds, respectively, an nine picks in the last four rounds.

Here's the updated 2020 draftboard with scores

There's been a lot of jostling for positioning in the past two weeks. For the first time in a few seasons we don't have a seller in the playoff hunt, so kudos to all the teams that stuck with. Moose and Angry both have some work to do to wiggle back into the playoff hunt, while Anal and Knebel are staring up at a hefty 12.5 game lead for the Revenge and three weeks left to go.

The last 4 weeks show some late surges from the middle of the pack, including Anal and Knebel, but as well as Tomahawk and Ring.

LAST 4 WEEKS

1	Tomahawk chops	5.0
2	Take the Knebel	5.4
3	Ring of Fire	5.5
4	Anal Hershiser	6.0
5	The Angry Pirates	6.4
6	Montezuma's Revenge	6.4
7	Brokeback Moundmen	6.7
8	Sexual Napalm	6.8
9	Moose is Loose!	7.1
10	Knuckle Sandwich	8.1
11	One Nut Wonders	8.1
12	Grit Beer and Balls	9.1
13	Donkey Punchers	9.1
14	Cowhide Joyride	9.8

Remember it is of utmost importance that lineups continue to be set even if you are out of it. Thank you in advance.

Please be sure to pay your dues asap via check to Adam Leech, 90 Old Route 9, North Berwick, ME 03906 or pay via paypal: adrok71@yahoo.com

Week 16 Real Rankings

NOTES

Open trading has begun! Until Aug 11 at midnight, you can trade up to two picks in rounds 7-10 (no limit on the number you can receive). So let people know if you’re selling or buying and see if you can match up!

I’ve pasted images of all the trades made during the open trading period last year, which can help provide some context. More than half the total trades happened during this period, so get ready for some action.

The Real Rankings show a tight race at the top, with six teams separated by 0.50, so a couple of well timed trades could make all the difference. 

Here’s who’s hot and who’s not over the last 4 weeks:

1	Take the Knebel	5.1
2	Montezuma's Revenge	5.6
3	Moose is Loose!	5.9
4	Anal Hershiser	6.3
5	Tomahawk chops	6.8
5	Sexual Napalm	6.8
7	The Angry Pirates	7.0
8	Brokeback Moundmen	7.2
9	Ring of Fire	7.4
10	One Nut Wonders	7.6
11	Grit Beer and Balls	8.4
11	Knuckle Sandwich	8.4
13	Cowhide Joyride	8.6
14	Donkey Punchers	8.7

And here’s the top players over the last 30 days:

1	Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF 	Tomahawk chops
2	Mookie Betts Bos - OF 	Sexual Napalm
3	Rafael Devers Bos - 3B 	Take the Knebel
4	Ramón Laureano Oak - OF	Tomahawk chops
5	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's
6	Gerrit Cole Hou - P 	One Nut Wonders
7	Yuli Gurriel Hou - 1B,2B,3B	Donkey Punchers
8	Christian Yelich Mil - OF 	The Angry Pirates
9	José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B 	The Angry Pirates
10	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
11	Nelson Cruz Min - Util 	Moose is Loose!
12	Keston Hiura Mil - 2B	Take the Knebel
13	Eugenio Suárez Cin - 3B	Ring of Fire
14	Josh Donaldson Atl - 3B 	One Nut Wonders
15	Shane Bieber Cle - P	Take the Knebel
16	Stephen Strasburg Was - P 	Brokeback
17	Sonny Gray Cin - P	Cowhide Joyride
18	Paul Goldschmidt StL - 1B 	Ring of Fire
19	Renato Núñez Bal - 1B,3B	Moose is Loose!
20	Travis d'Arnaud TB - C,1B	Moose is Loose!
21	Jose Altuve Hou - 2B 	Cowhide Joyride
22	Clayton Kershaw LAD - P 	Brokeback
23	Mike Clevinger Cle - P 	Donkey Punchers
24	Michael Brantley Hou - OF	Knuckle Sandwich
25	Zack Greinke Ari - P 	Moose is Loose!

2018 OPEN TRADING PERIOD TRADES

Week 15 Real Rankings