Week 13 & 14 Real Rankings

NOTES

Well, well. We've got a new #1 in the RR. After claiming the top spot in the actual standings weeks ago but sitting at 6-8th in the RR, the Revenge have shown their true colors and it's looking pretty good, led by Trout/Scherzer and a bunch of hot youngsters (Alonso, Tatis, Soto). We've also got a new #2 as Jeff's hot streak the past couple weeks has him in second, despite only rostering five SPs.

The last four weeks reflect a lot of the recent movement in the standings. It'll be interesting to see how Jason decides to go after pretty consistent production the last four weeks despite being 13th in the actual standings. We all know he likes to trade, but which way will he be trading?

LAST 4 WEEKS

1	Montezuma's Revenge	5.0
2	Anal Hershiser	6.0
3	Sexual Napalm	6.4
4	Take the Knebel	6.5
5	Grit Beer and Balls	6.9
6	Moose is Loose!	7.0
7	Brokeback Moundmen	7.2
7	Tomahawk chops	7.2
9	One Nut Wonders	7.3
10	Ring of Fire	7.4
11	Knuckle Sandwich	8.0
12	Cowhide Joyride	8.1
13	The Angry Pirates	8.2
14	Donkey Punchers	8.7

The top 25 players over the last 30 days explain the Revenge's resurgence. Lots of interesting young players here with Tatis, Gurriel, Alonso, Acuna, Albies, Ohtani, Laureano, and Eloy all blossoming into stars.

1	Max Scherzer Was - P	Montezuma's Revenge
2	Mike Trout LAA - OF	Montezuma's Revenge
3	Charlie Blackmon Col - OF	Donkey Punchers
4	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD - SS	Montezuma's Revenge
5	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Tor - 2B,SS,OF	Take the Knebel
6	Pete Alonso NYM - 1B	Montezuma's Revenge
7	Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF	Tomahawk chops
8	Josh Bell Pit - 1B	Moose is Loose!
9	Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B	One Nut Wonders
10	DJ LeMahieu NYY - 1B,2B,3B	Grit Beer and Balls
11	Yasiel Puig Cin - OF	The Angry Pirates
12	Liam Hendriks Oak - P	Tomahawk chops
13	Manny Machado SD - 3B,SS	Sexual Napalm
14	Aaron Nola Phi - P	Montezuma's Revenge
15	Christian Yelich Mil - OF	The Angry Pirates
16	Mookie Betts Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
17	Yuli Gurriel Hou - 1B,2B,3B	Donkey Punchers
18	Carlos Santana Cle - 1B,3B	Anal Hershiser
19	Ozzie Albies Atl - 2B	Tomahawk chops
20	Shohei Ohtani (Batter) LAA - Util	Tomahawk chops
21	Ramón Laureano Oak - OF	Tomahawk chops
22	Andrew Cashner Bal - P	Grit Beer and Balls
23	Eloy Jiménez CWS - OF	Anal Hershiser
24	Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
25	Trea Turner Was - SS	Brokeback Moundmen

It's the All-Star break, which means it's the two-thirds mark for our season. That's right - 14 weeks down, 7 more to go. The open trading period begins on July 28 at midnight. Negotiations can happen at any time, but the trades including rounds 7-10 will be null and void if they're agreed to before that time. Reminder that teams can only trade two picks in these rounds, but there is no limit on the number of top picks one can acquire.  If you're willing to trade surefire keepers during this time, it's best to post on the messageboard and let everyone know to send an offer.

Week 12 Real Rankings

Week 10 & 11 Real Rankings

Lots of movement in the standings and real rankings since the last post. Kyle dropped out of the top spot while Chad made the leap into to the top spot and has a pretty healthy lead over third and below. As shown in the VAR column (volatility measure), Chad has been by far the most steady performer over the course of the season, which says a lot about his abilities given that he has also made the most roster moves so far. Perhaps even more impressive is he is second overall in pitching and first in hitting, which far exceeds anyone else in terms of average ranking in the two categories. Unfortunately, he still only sits tied for fourth in the standings with 5.5 games out.

Below is the average RR over the last 4 weeks. Kyle's pirates would've been 5.4 and in first if it wasn't for the 10.9 egg laid last week - tied for the second worst week of any team this season. For my Revenge, the real performance is starting to catch up to the standings, which obviously preferable to the alternative. Meanwhile, Ring and Grit are some noteworthy sliders.

RR - LAST 4 WEEKS

1	Montezuma's Revenge	5.70
2	Anal Hershiser	5.83
3	Take the Knebel	6.00
4	Tomahawk chops	6.03
5	Sexual Napalm	6.58
6	The Angry Pirates	6.78
7	Donkey Punchers	7.30
8	Cowhide Joyride	7.70
8	One Nut Wonders	7.70
10	Brokeback Moundmen	7.80
11	Grit Beer and Balls	7.88
12	Moose is Loose!	7.98
13	Ring of Fire	8.08
14	Knuckle Sandwich	8.20

We're at the halfway mark of our 21-week regular season, so it's a good time to try to figure out which direction your going. There are a lot of middling teams that could be a hot streak away from a top position. There's also 8 playoff spots, so you're more likely to make the playoffs than not in this league, making it a seller's market. Generally, the most successful rebuilds start with selling off non-keeper assets for picks and adding potentially high-octane replacements, which you also sell as their performance dictates. Obvious keepers can get top dollar value, but its important to keep in mind that picks in rounds 7-10 can only be traded in the open trading period from July 28-Aug 11. So, it may be worth holding on to obvious keepers until you can maximize their value.

If you end up selling, let the masses know! There's no shortage of teams with holes.

It's always interesting to see which players fall off and which players sustain. So often what looks like a breakout turns into a flatlining player who everyone is shocked to see dropped -- then you look at the recent numbers. But then you get the legit emergence of players like Kepler, Marter, Giolito, Renfroe -- all guys people one time had a hardon for, but hadn't quite put it together. Here they are, nearing the end of June and they're producing like legit keepers. 

TOP 25 - LAST 30 DAYS

1	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
2	Max Scherzer Was - P 	Montezuma's Revenge
3	Christian Yelich Mil - OF 	The Angry Pirates
4	Max Kepler Min - OF	Knuckle Sandwich
5	Ketel Marte Ari - 2B,SS,OF	Brokeback Moundmen
6	Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B 	One Nut Wonders
7	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 	Anal Hershiser
8	Charlie Morton TB - P	Take the Knebel
9	Lucas Giolito CWS - P	Sexual Napalm
10	Trevor Story Col - SS 	Ring of Fire
11	Carlos Santana Cle - 1B,3B	Anal Hershiser
12	David Dahl Col - OF 	Cowhide Joyride
13	Chris Sale Bos - P 	Moose is Loose!
14	Walker Buehler LAD - P 	Anal Hershiser
15	Starling Marte Pit - OF 	Anal Hershiser
16	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
17	Anthony Rizzo ChC - 1B 	Brokeback Moundmen
18	Hunter Renfroe SD - OF	Grit Beer and Balls
19	Jacob deGrom NYM - P 	Grit Beer and Balls
20	Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD - P	Tomahawk chops
21	Anthony Rendon Was - 3B 	The Angry Pirates
22	Garrett Cooper Mia - 1B,OF	Cowhide Joyride
23	José Berríos Min - P 	Ring of Fire
24	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS 	Tomahawk chops
25	Justin Verlander Hou - P 	Tomahawk chops

Week 10 Real Ranking

NOTES
Lots of movement on the boards again this week. Perhaps they're normalizing a bit, but we still have some wide discrepencies in Actual vs. Real. The primary reason for that is pretty clearly parity. The teams ranked 2-11 in the Real Rankings are only separated by 1 point, so those teams can fluctuate week to week quite a bit. The 12-14 teams are all approximately where they should be according to the Real Rankings and you've got to wonder at what point does the master dealer -- sitting 28.5 games out of first and 18.5 out of a playoff spot -- take his one remaining nut and call it a season?

We are on the verge of the halfway point, so it's not a bad time to take stock and figure out what pieces you might need. There were as many deals in the first 40 minutes after the season than there were in April and May -- and both were considered widely to be lopsided.  While Tim Anderson is certainly not the most steady player, his overall numbers are great and Kyle Freeland's were not, so it was a bit perplexing why Dave made the trade. The Rockies subsequently optioned Freeland and Tim Anderson is 5/15 with a HR and an SB for Anal. I should note the draft picks were swapped incorrectly, so Dave shouldve received the 3 rounds, not Justin (Yahoo is fixing). Then there's the Jason trade we all didn't like but really hasn't had much of an impact. Jed's players (Gordon/Blackmon/Price) have performed well despite all spending time on the IL and two of Jason's three guys (Xander/Freeman) have been outstanding. Yet, both teams remain firmly in the basement and they have combined to have only one Real Ranking score better than 7.5 over the last 6 weeks!

Someone will have to do something to differentiate themselves at some point. My guess is there will be even more teams willing to sacrifice next year for this year given how the season is going. The team with the top draft score heading into this year's draft, Anal, is doing quite well, but the second and third place scores (Cowhide and Moose) are sitting in 11th and 12th while the three teams with the by far the worst draft scores - Montezuma's, Grit and Balls, and Sexual Napalm - are 1st, 2nd, and 4th in the Actuals. It should be noted that my team and Shomphe's have 33 transactions each.  All of this just lends credence to what I've been saying for years - inseason moves are far more important than the draft (whether by dumb luck or skill).

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Here's a look at how everyone is trending the last three weeks:

LAST THREE WEEKS
1 Montezuma's Rev 5.6
2 Take the Knebel 5.9
3 The Angry Pirates 6.1
4 Anal Hershiser 6.1
5 Tomahawk chops 6.4
6 Sexual Napalm 6.9
7 Knuckle Sandwich 7.0
8 Grit Beer and Balls 7.2
9 Donkey Punchers 7.6
10 Brokeback Mound 7.7
11 Cowhide Joyride 7.9
12 Moose is Loose! 8.2
13 Ring of Fire         8.2
14 One Nut Wonders 8.9

And here's individual players that are hot over the past two weeks - bunch of keepers and then theres the likes of Giolito, Nunez, Odorizzi, Soroka, Riley, Renfroe, Marte, and Dietrich, who were all up for grabs not too long ago:

LAST 14 DAYS

1	Trevor Story Col - SS 	Ring of Fire
2	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 	Anal Hershiser
3	Lucas Giolito CWS - P	Sexual Napalm
4	Renato Núñez Bal - 1B,3B	Montezuma's Revenge
5	Justin Verlander Hou - P 	Tomahawk chops
6	Austin Meadows TB - OF	Donkey Punchers
7	Max Scherzer Was - P 	Montezuma's Revenge
8	Anthony Rizzo ChC - 1B 	Brokeback Moundmen
9	Juan Soto Was - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
10	Xander Bogaerts Bos - SS 	One Nut Wonders
11	Jake Odorizzi Min - P	Take the Knebel
12	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
13	Andrew McCutchen Phi - OF 	Cowhide Joyride
14	Eduardo Escobar Ari - 3B,SS	Grit Beer and Balls
15	Rafael Devers Bos - 3B 	Take the Knebel
16	Max Kepler Min - OF	Knuckle Sandwich
17	Mike Soroka Atl - P	Sexual Napalm
18	Austin Riley Atl - 3B,OF	Tomahawk chops
19	Hunter Renfroe SD - OF	Grit Beer and Balls
20	Rich Hill LAD - P	Sexual Napalm
21	Derek Dietrich Cin - 1B,2B,OF	Take the Knebel
22	Brad Peacock Hou - P	The Angry Pirates
23	Ketel Marte Ari - 2B,SS,OF	Brokeback Moundmen
24	Gleyber Torres NYY - 2B,SS 	Knuckle Sandwich
25	David Price Bos - P	Donkey Punchers

Week 6-8 Real Rankings

It's been a few weeks since the last update and a lot has happened since then. Frankly, the Real Rankings are in disarray at the moment. The most extreme examples are happening at the top.  The Angry Pirates should be a lot better off in the Actual Standings according to the Real Ranking. However, Kyle's team is also one of the more volatile and statistically his average (and therefore RR) is being boosted by early season results. Meanwhile, the top team in the Standings, my Revenge, are clearly overachieving. The team has been dealing with a lot of injuries, so this could bode well in terms of aligning future RR scores. The term "I'd rather be lucky than good" comes to mind

Over the last three weeks we've seen the emergence of a few teams, operating in the middle of the Actual Standings, so further change in leadership could be happening.

1	Take the Knebel	5.5
2	Anal Hershiser	5.6
3	Tomahawk chops	6.1
4	Sexual Napalm	6.3
5	The Angry Pirates	6.4
6	Knuckle Sandwich	6.4
7	Montezuma's Revenge	6.9
8	Brokeback Moundmen	7.0
9	Grit Beer and Balls	7.3
10	Moose is Loose!	7.4
11	Ring of Fire	7.5
12	Cowhide Joyride	8.8
13	Donkey Punchers	9.0
14	One Nut Wonders	9.4

Rather than the overall individual leaders, it's always fun to look at who is ranking high over the last month. LOTS of keepers who started off slow on the list. Meanwhile, players like Josh Bell, Rafael Devers, Mike Soroka, Brandon Woodruff, and Max Kepler are emerging, and previous UTIL/BEN players like Eduardo Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, Hunter Pence, Hyun Jin Ryu, and CJ Cron are making major contributions.

1	Josh Bell Pit - 1B	Moose is Loose!
2	Kris Bryant ChC - 3B,OF 	Ring of Fire
3	Anthony Rizzo ChC - 1B 	Brokeback Moundmen
4	Rafael Devers Bos - 3B 	Take the Knebel
5	George Springer Hou - OF 	Sexual Napalm
6	Justin Verlander Hou - P 	Tomahawk chops
7	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 	Anal Hershiser
8	Chris Sale Bos - P 	Moose is Loose!
9	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS 	Tomahawk chops
10	Mike Soroka Atl - P	Sexual Napalm
11	Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD - P	Tomahawk chops
12	Mookie Betts Bos - OF 	Sexual Napalm
13	Eugenio Suárez Cin - 3B	Ring of Fire
14	Adalberto Mondesi KC - 2B,SS 	Grit Beer and Balls
15	Eduardo Escobar Ari - 3B,SS	Grit Beer and Balls
16	Joey Gallo Tex - 1B,OF 	The Angry Pirates
17	Zack Greinke Ari - P 	Moose is Loose!
18	Brandon Woodruff Mil - P	Anal Hershiser
19	Mike Trout LAA - OF 	Montezuma's Revenge
20	Jake Odorizzi Min - P	Take the Knebel
21	Hunter Pence Tex - OF	Take the Knebel
22	Cody Bellinger LAD - 1B,OF 	Grit Beer and Balls
23	Charlie Blackmon Col - OF 	Donkey Punchers
24	Max Kepler Min - OF	Knuckle Sandwich
25	C.J. Cron Min - 1B	The Angry Pirates

Week 5 Real Rankings

NOTES
It's really safe to say there are no clear cut front runners at this juncture. Everyone seems to be up and down from week to week, with last year's champs Tomahawk Chops the most consistent. With a full month in the books, we can truly see who is emerging and who is faking. Amazing to have the top three pitchers be Chris Paddack, Tyler Glasnow and Caleb Smith - two of those guys were on my Worst Draft picks list! Shows what I know...

But really the list of the top 25 shows some pretty amazing results: Bellinger's rebound, the very realness of Adalberto's 2018 season, Baez and Story continuing to mash, EE's continued presence, Gallo's improvements, meanwhile Luis Castillo, Tim Anderson, and Luke Voit all appear to be making good on the promise they shows in short spurts last year.  Plus, we've got Pete Alonso looking like a rookie stud from the outset.

1	Cody Bellinger LAD - 1B,OF	Grit Beer and Balls
2	Christian Yelich Mil - OF	The Angry Pirates
3	George Springer Hou - OF	Sexual Napalm
4	Rhys Hoskins Phi - 1B,OF	Brokeback Moundmen
5	Mike Trout LAA - OF	Montezuma's Revenge
6	Joey Gallo Tex - 1B,OF	The Angry Pirates
7	Marcell Ozuna StL - OF	One Nut Wonders
8	Chris Paddack SD - P	Take the Knebel
9	Adalberto Mondesi KC - 2B,SS	Grit Beer and Balls
10	Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS	Anal Hershiser
11	Trevor Story Col - SS	Ring of Fire
12	Tyler Glasnow TB - P	Grit Beer and Balls
13	Caleb Smith Mia - P	The Angry Pirates
14	Edwin Encarnación Sea - 1B	Donkey Punchers
15	Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD - P	Tomahawk chops
16	Luis Castillo Cin - P	Sexual Napalm
17	José Berríos Min - P	Ring of Fire
18	Justin Verlander Hou - P	Tomahawk chops
19	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS	Tomahawk chops
20	Tim Anderson CWS - SS	Cowhide Joyride
21	Pete Alonso NYM - 1B	Montezuma's Revenge
22	Whit Merrifield KC - 1B,2B,OF	Knuckle Sandwich
23	Willson Contreras ChC - C	Moose is Loose!
24	Luke Voit NYY - 1B	Tomahawk chops
25	Anthony Rizzo ChC - 1B	Brokeback Moundmen

We had our first big trade of the season, and May should prove to be fruitful with trades as teams start facing the realities of their rosters. Every year we seem to have someone give up in May and start the rebuilding process, and generally it goes pretty well, but hard to see that happening at this point given the differences between the RR and Actual at this point. Donkey seems like the only team in need of real change, and perhaps he'll get that with the latest trade.

Week 4 Real Rankings