Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Week 6 Real Rankings




NOTES

We have a new number one, at least in the Real Rankings, with Dagan taking over the top spot from Chad, who’s offensive prowess has been mitigated by some pitching problems.  Dagan was the top team last week but only managed 5 wins in a tough matchup against Montezumas, which nearly split the week before late game heroics on Sunday.  Clearly though, Ring is the top team in the league with the top pitching and second best hitting.

This is the latest we’ve gone into the season without an active seller in three years.  In 2016, Kyle started dealing on May 3rd. In 2015, Gibby started April 28th. But keep in mind, in both seasons they were the only dedicated seller for a couple months, so they are both outliers. And, in reality, Jason and Brian are only 10 and 8.5 games out of a playoff spot, respectively, with 15 weeks and 150 “games” to go. A lot can change.

I think with both Gibby and Kyle's teams, it was a mixture of injuries and underperformance from keepers and/or early picks that convinced them it was time to deal. Being the only seller in a starved market has a number of advantages and there’s different approaches to take. With both Kyle and Gibby, they managed to identify keepers they wanted and deal for them, while also picking up hot players and dealing them off as well.

The conclusion of this week will represent the one-third mark for the season – a good opportunity to take a hard look at the roster and seek trade partners or make tough decisions on some of the early picks that haven’t worked out. My leash was gone a long time ago.

Thankfully, the league decided to add a DL spot this year. There are currently 44 injured players on roster, which averages out to 3.1 per team! If you don’t count Brokeback, who remarkably has no DLed players at the moment, the number spikes to 3.4 per team.  While it’s nice the player isn’t gone as long, there doesn’t seem to be any hesitation to put a player on the DL.

The season has actually had two trades so far this season, both including yours truly. I didn’t bother reviewing them because they weren’t particularly interesting. Justin and I swapped Grichuk and Shelby Miller – one got injured and one sucked, so that was a wash. And Shomphe and I swapped Eduardo Nunez for four late rounds, as Chris sought speed and position flexibility and I didn’t need either.

Teams sweeping categories this season:  Angry 6-0 in HRs, LOC 6-0 in RBIs, and Anal is 6-0 is S+H. Conversely, Montezumas is 0-6 in OBP, Moose is 0-6 in Ks, Angry in 0-5-1 in HR, Napalm is 0-4-2 in QS, and One Nut is 0-5-1 in QS.

A look at the new top 20 provides many obvious names and some that provide instant regret to those who ignored Thames productivity in Korea, Judge’s selectivity improvements last year, Zimmerman’s health and actual age (he’s only 32), Keuchel’s shoulder woes last year, Ervin’s propensity for hot streaks, Reynolds’ power potential in COL with adjustments from last year, Gallo’s potential to stick, Vargas’ past periods of outperformance when healthy, and Conforto’s talent vs. opportunity.

1.  OF Bryce Harper WAS, Thor
2.  1B Paul Goldshmidt ARI, Ring
3.  OF Mike Trout LAA, Montezumas
4.  1B Freddie Freeman ATL, Napalm
5.  1B Eric Thames MIL, Donkey
6.  SP Chris Sale BOS, Angry
7.  OF Aaron Judge NYY, Moose
8.  1B Ryan Zimmerman WAS, LOC
9.  1B Joey Votto CIN, Ring
10. 3B Miguel Sano MIN, Montezumas
11. 1B Mark Reynolds COL, Thor
12. SP Dallas Keuchel HOU, Donkey
13. SP Ervin Santana MIN, Thor
14. 3B Joey Gallo TEX, Moose
15. SP Max Scherzer WAS, Montezumas
16. SP Jason Vargas KC, Ring
17. OF Nelson Cruz SEA, One Nut
18. OF Michael Conforto NYM, Anal
19. SP Clayton Kershaw LAD, Brokeback
20. RP Craig Kimbrel BOS, Anal

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Monday, May 1, 2017

Week 4 Real Rankings



NOTES
- As I've repeated here before, it takes some time for the Real Rankings and Actual Standings to normalize, which is why you see teams like Brokeback ranked third in RR and 12th in the actual standings. Eventually these numbers get a lot closer. The rankings should provide teams like Watsons an element of frustration (about the lack of luck) as well as a feeling of peace that the team is still performing well on a relative basis.

-One thing that is consistent in both the RR and Actuals is the first and last place teams. The upstart Living on Correas are showing why we added Chad to the league, with the best hitting so far this year. However, the pitching is a weak spot with a 6.40/1.60 last week, with an average of 10.4 in the pitching categories vs. 2.8 for hitting.

- Jason, meanwhile, hasn't had much to be happy about thus far, sitting in last overall, last in hitting and 11th in pitching. Acquiring Dahl for Bellinger backfired a bit when Bellinger surprisingly made an appearance before Dahl. Unfortunately, much of this was self-inflicted with the drafting of injured or minor league players. Perhaps things will turnaround once they move up and get healthy. So far, the Brantley gamble looks like it is paying off.

- Glad we added the third DL spot this year. We may need a fourth considering how frequently teams are using the designation now. It may behoove us to look at adding to the transaction limit as well, but we can revisit that in the offseason. For now, several teams are already one-third of the way through their allotted 60 transactions for the regular season. (Trades do not count against this number btw).

- So far the most balanced team has been Thor, with fourth ranked hitting and fifth ranked pitching. However, Chris just took a hit with the injury to the team's namesake.

- Looking at all the pitcher injuries and the top SPs so far this season highlights how difficult it is to draft it effectively and why it is so often left for the later rounds by experts. Outside of Sale, Kershaw, and Carrasco, I'm pretty sure no one could claim to have confidence in the rest of the top 10 including Keuchel, Erv Santan, Paxton, Nova, Leake, Bundy, and Jason friggin Vargas.

- After a rough few weeks to start, Chris Shannon and the Punchers bounced back in a big way with a sub-3.0 RR for the week and a clean 10-0 sweep of Watson.

- Big matchup of the week will be LOC head to head with Dagan's ROF.

Top 20 overall players so far according to Yahoo:
1.  OF Bryce Harper WAS (Thor)
2.  1B Ryan Zimmerman WAS (LOC)
3.  1B Eric Thames MIL (Donkey)
4.  1B Paul Goldshmidt ARI (Ring)
5.  1B Freddie Freeman ATL (Napalm)
6.  SP Chris Sale BOS (Angry)
7.  OF Aaron Judge NYY (Moose)
8.  OF Mike Trout LAA (Montezumas)
9.  SP Dallas Keuchel HOU (Donkey)
10. SP Ervin Santana MIN (Thor)
11. 3B Miguel Sano MIN (Montezumas)
12. OF Khris Davis OAK (Moose)
13. OF Nelson Cruz SEA (One Nut)
14. OF Ryan Braun MIL (Anal)
15. SP James Paxton SEA (Angry)
16. SS Francisco Lindor CLE (Stroman)
17. OF Mitch Haniger SEA (LOC)
18. SP Ivan Nova PIT (KOG)
19. 1B Anthony Rizzo CHC (Brokeback)
20. 1B Joey Votto CIN (Ring)

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Monday, April 17, 2017

Monday, April 10, 2017

Week 1 Real Rankings



NOTES
- Some big power displays this week with Montezumas, Angry, Stroman and Anal all exceeding 13 blasts for the week.
- Big difference between first and second for RBI (47 for Revenge, 38 for Stroman)
- Not many impressive OBP outputs this week. Dan came in first at .353. Everyone else came in under .336.
- Massive difference between first and last in ERA - 2.87 for Thor, 5.70 for One Nut.
- One reason I like doing Real Rankings. Moose and Thor both deserved wins this week with a 2.87 vs. 2.89 ERA and 1.17 vs. 1.18 WHIP
- Tough week for Jason and the Wonders, though he was tops in S+H (otherwise he averaged 11.3 in the other categories). Prepare for perfectly fair trade offers involving the four inactive players he drafted with his first four picks.
- Difficult week for the Punchers too despite having a pretty amazing draftboard.
- Entirely too soon rankings of the top overall players: Goldshmidt (Ring), Thor (Thor), Sano (MR), Belt (SMC), Lindor (SMC), Mazara (KOG), Springer (Anal), Keuchel (Donkey), Haniger (LMC), Puig (Anal).
- It'll be an interesting case study to see the result of Donkey (best draftboard) vs. Livin on Correa (worst draftboard) this week.