Keepin receives:
Brett Anderson LAD - P
Round 17
One Nut receives:
Aroldis Chapman Cin - P
Round 22
Jason is gonna think I’m picking on him, but I just think this is
really too many picks to give up for any RP, even Chapman. First, let’s find
Aroldis on the S+H leader board. There he is: 29th along with Pedro
Strop, Jason Grilli, AJ Ramos, David Robertson, and Brad Ziegler for the season.
How about over the last 30 days? Ahh, yup, still just 24th – tied at
6 with 7 other guys. And, look at that,
Aroldis’ 19 Ks and 6 saves in the last 30 is almost exactly the same production
as Will Smith (free agent!). That is not jiggy. And wait a sec, don’t the Reds
suck, particularly since trading their two best starters? Yup, 5-11 in August. OK,
so not much value in the S+H department, but Chapman is good with Ks. Let me
check to see if Jason needs Ks -- nope there he is in first in total Ks for the
season. But he is just 12th in the league in S+H; sure could use
some of those…
The days of relievers being valuable are past us. They will never be
kept again and I suspect next year, they won’t be drafted higher than the 10th. Giving up 5 rounds – 5 crucial rounds given
the plummeting value once the draft gets into the 20th round – is ridiculous
for someone who isn’t going to contribute much to the one category you really
need him to. Sure he may pile up 8 Ks during a week, but if that’s not a weak
spot, I’d prefer someone on a team that will win some games. And the bottom
line is the Reds are unlikely to get him in for “some work” given the number of
innings he’s logged in recent years. They’re going to save those bullets and
Jason should’ve saved those picks.
-------------------------
Keepin receives:
Drew Pomeranz Oak - P
Will Harris Hou - P
Adam Wainwright StL - P DL
Round 12
Napalm receives:
Jake McGee TB - P
Joakim Soria Pit - P
Jonathon Niese NYM - P
Round 15
As odd a trade as they come, really. First, you take the fact that
these are two teams sitting in 11th and 12th who have
been in sell mode for a while now. Then you get the relatively low impact of
the rounds dealt here, with the 12th and 15th yielding
approximately the same value in most years’ drafts. Then you consider there are
no sure fire keepers here and you got yourself a headscratcher. Nothing against
Waino, but I’ve got some things against Waino – namely the waning K/9 numbers,
which were never that impressive. He topped out at 219 and has three seasons of
200+, which isn’t much for a top tier guy. The sub-3.00/1.10 seasons are great,
but his declining K rates leave him out of the top 20 SPs going forward, which
leaves him out of keeper status. And that is just based on his stats. You would
drop him even further on the list when you consider his age (34) and Achilles injury
that kept him out all season. He’s a poor keeper, but a good name so it’s hard
to really blame Pierce for making a move like this given the little he gave up.
The change to S+H has effectively valued relief pitchers to a level that is
consistent with their actual value to MLB teams. Though there was a day when
top closers could get 8 rounds in a hot market, middle relievers were worth
nothing. This trade shows how that has changed. A few rounds for a few good RPs
sounds about right to me. As far as strategy goes, Gibby remains in sell mode
and is still sitting on a bounty of picks – the likes of which we’ve rarely
seen – and he picks up some improvement in rates and S+H, which could sneak him
into the playoffs, where anything could happen. SO, in summary. Pierce gets
very little because Waino isn’t a keeper and three rounds isn’t much. Gibby
gets very little because he’s unlikely to make the playoffs. Sounds like a fair
trade!
--------------------------
Urban receives:
Grégory Polanco Pit - OF
Doug Fister Was - P
Round 19
Donkey receives:
José Reyes Col - SS
Chris Tillman Bal - P
Round 22
I’m not high on Tillman or Reyes in general, but I still really don’t
like this one for Dan. I’m not sure Jose Reyes is going to be playing in COL
next year, but if he is, his value easily exceeds that of Polanco as a keeper
for 2016. Reyes is something less than what he once was, but he also plays a
position that is much more difficult to fill with multi-category talent than
OF, where Polanco’s 162-game average thus far in his career (88/11/56/27/.322)
is very Austin Jacksonish. And those numbers should be watered down further if
you consider how he would actually produce in 162 games given his performance versus
LHPs. That’s not to say he won’t eventually be a keeper. I actually think he
will, and may even get to 100/20/50/40/.350 eventually. I just don’t know when
that might be. I do know he won’t be valued by the fantasy community at large as
a player going in the top six rounds of next year’s draft. Certainly, we’ve
seen a great number of young players get kept for much less production (Gordon
Beckham!) but we’re looking purely at value acquired vs. potential value. I
think Polanco could’ve been acquired for a few rounds in the offseason, while
the Reyes/Tillman combo should’ve brought him at least 10 rounds this year
given how well Tillman has pitched lately. For Chris Shannon, who was quiet
otherwise, this was a good opportunity to be loud as it really solidifies a
couple of weak spots on his roster. Again, I like Polanco but – like most
23-year-olds – he’s got some things to work out. That platoon split (.742 vs. .618 OPS) is a
strong indicator that his learning curve is going to be more in line with a
typical young player rather than the uber-prospects that dominate immediately. All that means is Dan may have to wait three
years for him to fully emerge, making the take home now a little less exciting.
------------------
One Nut receives:
Madison Bumgarner SF - P
Round 23
Round 24
Anal receives:
Craig Kimbrel SD - P
Round 7
Round 11
Wow, just wow. Jason again delivers with the trade of the year (as far
as headlines are concerned), except this time he’s only getting one player for a
staggering 29 rounds. To put in perspective, David Price is MadBum’s equal yet
he and ARod and Nelson only yielded 28 rounds, so Price’s portion of that was
like 14 rounds. I’m not sure how this one developed, but there is no way to
look at this without saying Jason overspent by quite a bit. He also failed to
secure some of the other nice pieces on Andrew’s roster, which surely could’ve
been included given the price. It was such a wild overpay, there was no way of
even considering it when making subsequent deals for starters. In reality, his
numbers (174/2.98/1.03/16) are only a little better than Salazar (156/3.16/1.06/14),
who was acquired with Melky for 9 rounds. Sure, you’d rather have MadBum than
Salazar, but not with that price discrepency. The one thing Jason has acquired
that few can provide is a really good track record and youth – Bummy is a
seasoned ace at just 25. However, he
does have problems away from home (4.16 era this year) and this will actually
only be his second year exceeding the 200K mark. Those numbers place him a
group of about 12-15 or so pitchers behind the Kershaw/Scherzer/Fernandez tier.
It’s a lot for any player and only three rounds away from the maximum draft
pick compensation possible. I’m sure Jason thinks this is the piece that will
bring him his unprecedented 4th H&T championship – and Lord
knows he has earned the benefit of the doubt – but I’m pretty sure he could’ve
had him for less.
--------------------
Urban receives:
Kevin Gausman Bal - P
Luis Severino NYY - P
Round 17
Anal receives:
Jonathan Papelbon Was - P
Tony Watson Pit - P
Round 20
Got to admit to scratching my head a bit when this one came through.
Seemed like Andrew was selling, but now he’s spending three rounds on some
decent RPs? Well, it turns out Andrew was kind of selling. Or selling with a
purpose. His strategy is to accumulate enough relievers to dominate ERA, WHIP,
and S+H, and hopefully have enough offense to get three out of five categories.
Since he’s almost automatic on the steals, this would give him a really good shot
at four categories from the outset. Not a bad strategy actually. That said, the less IPs means a blowup has a
greater impact on your rates, so its hard to just hand over the rates
categories. Still, for three rounds, it’s a worthwhile strategy given the bounty
he got for MadBum. Urban’s return may have been a little light, but not sure
how much people would’ve been willing to give for RPs. Seems like there were a
lot of good RPs left on the rosters of teams that were selling because they’re
so widely available (which was the point of going to S+H). Gausman would’ve
made a good back of the rotation piece for a buyer, but doesn’t do much here.
So, like most of these trades, both team see some benefit but Andrew could
really excel if his strategy works.
----------------------------
Moose receives:
Chris Bassitt Oak - P
Joe Ross Was - P
Danny Duffy KC - P
Round 23
Cowhide receives:
Round 15
Well, for Brian’s only deadline move, it wasn’t terribly exciting, but
could really be a difference maker. One of the keys to going on a late season
run is having a productive back end of your rotation and all three are pitching
well at the moment. A productive pitching staff teamed with resurgent CarGo and
Chris Davis crushing everything in sight could do a lot of damage. But, of
course, there’s the issue of the lack of track record for any of these three.
Duffy has the most track record and it’s not really one of consistency. Bassitt
has been one of the top SPs in the league over the last 30, while Ross looks
legit in his first big league action and has a pretty decent pedigree. Volatility
can be a real bitch though and these are all young guys who are due for some
correction. But, at 8 rounds, he got them each for a few rounds, so the
ultimate loss here is not every much. The real value here though is Dave
picking up some useful rounds for what amounted to waiver wire fodder and a
trade throw-in. Win win.
