Trade Review: Napalm and Donkey

Donkey receives:

SP Alfredo Simon CIN

14^th rounder

15^th rounder

S. Napalm receives:

SP Jered Weaver LAA

23^rd rounder

24^th rounder

Gibby is a bit of a wild card when it comes to trades. Sometimes I wonder what he’s thinking, but I know its always based off some sound thought process. This one had me scratching my head a bit. Lets get to the facts: (1) There is no doubt that this makes his team better for 2014, (2) Chris doesn’t make deals just for the sake of making deals; he’s patient and willing to hold out for more value, (3) the 14^th and 15^th rounds are the two highest picks you are allowed to trade until two weeks before the trade deadline, (4) 18 rounds is a shitload of upgrade, (5) Jered Weaver was once a stud, (6) Jered Weaver is no longer a stud; he is a perfectly serviceable #3-4 starter, (7) Jered Weaver might be in for some notable regression.

The line on Weaver so far is quite good with a 66 Ks, 3.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9 QS (75%). However, there’s underlying numbers to worry about – 4.24 FIP (essentially ERA without fielding factors included), 4.39 xFIP (FIP with ballpark factors considered), 4.29 SIERA (ERA estimate using K, BB, GB rates). There’s also the issue of a .246 BABIP (opponent batting average on balls in play), which is 17^th lowest in the league. Generally, a .300 BABIP is the line in which you determine whether one has been lucky or unlucky. In this case, he has been lucky, though not as much as it may seem because his career BABIP has been low at .270 and has ranged from .241–.268 the past three years. The Ks haven’t been there since 2010 and his current rate of 7.0 per nine is about where he’s been the past three years. Meanwhile, his 2.9 BB/9 is the highest rate of his career.

One could make a case for Chris benefiting further by the inclusion of Simon, but you’d be wrong. Surface stats may look good, but he’ll be returning back to Earth (and likely the bullpen) soon. Still, not a worthless piece to get in return.

When it comes down to it, Gibby makes his staff deeper by slotting Weaver in after Darvish and Strasburg. He also improves a roster structure short coming by getting someone who has been good at producing QSs, a category that can be difficult to win with five relievers and only seven starters. The question is price and while proven quality starters come at a hefty price (see Dave’s trade for Ryu), Gibby loses two of the biggest bargaining chips he has until August in his 14^th and 15^th rounders and I’m thinking the price should’ve been more like 10-12 rounds.

Trade Review: Montezumas and Angry

Montezumas receives:

RP/SP Alex Wood ATL

Angry receives:

SP AJ Burnett PHI

I fully admit to this being a completely reactionary move since Burnett was in the midst of another crappy outing in which he walked his way into trouble. But it has been built up for some time. I’ve actually been trying to deal him since I found out he was playing with a hernia and intended to play through the ailment. I don’t trust volatile guys like him with nagging injuries. I wouldn’t have drafted him if I knew that and it quickly deflated what I thought was a great draft pick. But I hadn’t found sufficient value, even though he pitched quite well to start the season and it seemingly looked like he was going to be fine. But after his third 6-walk game, I couldn’t stand it. I sold and I sold low. Next game out, Burnett pitches a gem. So, maybe I’ll pay for this one, but Burnett still has the 15^th highest SIERA at 4.41, while his xFIP and FIP all say his 4.21 ERA is about where it should be. Meanwhile, he’s only got a 6.9 K/9 while posting a 3^rd in the league 4.3 BB/9. Perhaps his time in Pittsburgh was just a façade because he looks eerily similar to the Yankee version.

Meanwhile, Alex Wood has little value at the moment and has had little value since he was moved to the bullpen a month ago as he hasn’t really been that effective as a reliever. The truth is the only reason he got demoted is the Braves want to cap his innings at 180 or so and Aaron Harang and Gavin Floyd were, and continue to be, effective starters. He was actually awesome as a starter. If you take out one bad start, he had a 1.80 era as a starter while his 2.95 xFIP is 17^th in the league and he has a bloated .342 BABIP. So the underlying stats say he’s quality. A few days after the trade went through, Wood was sent down to the minors to be stretched out to start again, signaling he will be back in the rotation soon. And, it just so happened to coincide well with me having a vacant NA spot. 

Perhaps this will work out for me, but so far Kyle has got a QS out of it and I got diddly.

Week 10 Real Rankings

NOTES:
- Two shutouts this week and Pierce and Shomphe are in the top 5 and climbing. Maybe all Pierce needed was Chris Sale to come back? Maybe it was the standings that were correct and the real ranks were off, but 19-1 over the past two weeks has Pierce surging. Still, his third spot in the standings are much higher than the real ranks, but if he keeps posting sub-4.0 real ranks each week, they'll even out.

- Meanwhile, Shomphe has had sub-5.0 real ranks in four of the past five weeks and is fifth in the standings and real ranks. The pitching staff has settled down and what was once a weakness is now a strength.

- Kyle's 9th place in the standings doesn't reflect his ample 4th place in the real ranks, but he's had a tough past couple weeks as pitching continues to be his shortcoming (12th in pitching).

- Tough luck losers on the week include Andrew, who fell 8-1 to Jason and only fell 1 hr, 1rbi, .013 obp short of Jason and tied in QS with 3. Lucked into the one win with a 1 run victory over Jason. Really tough to hit 10 homers and get a loss.

-... just ask Brian, who also hit 10 homers and got a loss after my team hit an amazing 16 dingers. He had whip too until the last day and ultimately fell 3-7 despite the 6th best Real Rank.

- We're at the (slightly before) halfway point. Still plenty of time for things to change, but there aren't a lot of great signs for the three long-timers in the dredges, with Shannon, Lars, and Russ all in the bottom five in real ranks over the past four weeks. However, when I look at the rosters, I see a lot of potential, so there's still hope.

- Speaking of the last four weeks, here are your leaders for the past four

1	Sexual Napalm	4.6
2	I Ate The Munchkins	5.4
3	Keepin it REAL...	5.8
4	Cowhide Joyride	6.2
5	Montezuma Revenge	6.5
6	Anal Hershiser	7.1
7	Moose is Loose!	7.4
8	The Angry Pirates	7.7
9	Ring of Fire	7.8
10	Mike Ehrman-Trout	7.8
11	One Nut Wonders	8.0
12	Prestige Worldwide	8.0
13	Urban Achievers	8.4
14	Donkey Punchers	8.8

Dave's rebuttal

Trade Review: Cowhide and Donkey

Cowhide gets

2B Ben Zobrist TB

SP Hyun Jun Ryu LAD

22^nd Rounder

Donkey gets

OF Michael Brantley CLE

1B Eric Hosmer KC

16^th rounder

Don’t get this one for Dave. On one hand, he’s selling Brantley for much lower than his 13^th rank calls for, while also selling low on Hosmer for much lower than his ample prospect promise and preseason hype calls for.  Ryu is a great #3 or 4, but his lack of strikeout power (7.9 K/9) caps his upside to something less than an ace. He doesn’t give up homers and his ERA is in line with his underlying stats, so he’s very safe, but I would want more than safe for giving up one of the top performers in the league and one of the top young first basemen in the league. No, I don’t think Brantley will keep this up, but the whole point of dealing someone at a high point is to get quality you couldn’t have got based on initial assessments. If you looked at this trade before the season, you’d say “Wow Dave gave up a really good player (Hosmer) and a fillin for a decent starter and a has-been OBP league specialist… why did he have to give up a pick too?” This Zobrist isn’t Dagan’s old faithful Zobrist. This is a decent substitute who lacks power (.098 ISO this year vs .169 career) and doesn’t run anymore (since 2010, SBs have dropped from 24 to 19 to 14 to 11 last year, and on pace for 8 this year). He’s eight days younger than me, and being 33 means his current pace of 67/8/27/8/.331 might not change much (though RBIs will go up a lot). Thumb injuries can be tough too, so there’s that concern as well.

My love/hate relationship with Hos is well-documented. I picked him up three years ago after his call-up and immediately fell in love, keeping him as a core keeper heading into the next year. He struggled to the tune of 65/14/60/16/.304, but I kept him again, not willing to give up on this 22 year-old former high pick. But midway through last season, I had enough. He had one homer through June and I needed to deal him while he still had some name value. I dealt him to Jason with an injured Kinsler and injured Street for Anthony Rizzo and John Lackey. Jason dealt him and seven rounds to Dave for Lester six days after our trade.  The day the trade went through, Hosmer hit a homer and he stayed hot throughout the rest of the season, ending the year at 86/17/79/11/.354 and accumulating all sorts of hype heading into this season, so much so that ESPN had him as a top 10 overall long-term keeper.

The date I officially gave up on Hosmer and hit the accept button was June 7, 2013. Look at your calendar. There’s plenty of time for this 24-year-old pedigree-filled first bagger to turn it around. I got lucky and nabbed a long-term piece in Rizzo, who is paying dividends this year. I worry Dave didn’t get anything back here that will be valuable for the long haul. Conversely, Chris Shannon has done a nice job of not panicking while sitting in the basement of the standings and sold Zobrist while he still had name value and recognized the potential value in Hosmer regaining his stud keeper form and Brantley potentially not being a one half wonder.

Clearly, I side with Mr. Shannon on this one.

Trade Review: One Nut and Urban

One Nut receives:

SP Gio Gonzalez WSH

RP Kenley Jensen LAD

18^th rounder

Urban receives:

2B Ian Kinsler DET

OF Angel Pagan SF

24^th rounder

The follow-up that was anticipated to Kipnis deal, I have to say I was a little surprised it wasn’t a better starter and a worse reliever since top-line starter is really chief among Jason’s needs. Gio has been a very good pitcher the last couple of years, but this year has been a lot of mediocrity with a 4.62 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 56% QS%, albeit with fine K numbers (9.4 K/9). His underlying numbers suggest he’s pitched better (3.73 xFIP, 3.50 FIP) than that, but he’s currently on the DL with shoulder inflammation. That could be nothing or it could be a lingering problem that causes his already spotty control to suffer. We’ll see more after his rehab start this weekend. He’s got three straight seasons of 192+ Ks and a sub-3.40 ERA, so it makes sense for Jason to go this route, but I would’ve thought he’d go for someone a little more reliable. Jensen is obviously awesome and a clear need after Melancon lost his job and Belisario is a pretty crappy closer. With Kipnis back from the DL, he didn’t need Kinsler and still has one of the league’s top offenses.

Considering Gio’s performance to date and injury, Dan gets the best player in the deal in a healthy Kinsler who is doing enough everywhere (39/4/23/6/.331) to be a great addition after early pick Aaron Hill has failed to produce. He also gains in speed, giving him three OF in Rios, Marte, and Pagan with more than 10 steals. Perhaps he could find a suitor and make gains in the power dept. Pagan isn’t great, but he’s a nice fill in and won’t hurt you anywhere. Meanwhile, with Robertson, Rodney, and Grilli, Jensen was expendable and with Cain, Pineda, and Harper on the mend, its tough holding that many injured guys. He’s also got a good mix of veteran starters who should improve as the year goes on (Dickey, Ubaldo, Cain, Haren, and Tillman), so Gio isn’t a huge loss.

From a keeper perspective, I think Gio and Kinsler are both in the lower tier, but decent keepers when healthy, so it’s a wash there. You could make a case for Jensen, but I won’t listen to it. The pick doesn’t move the dial a lot for me since its so late, but it was smart of Jason to insist on being compensated for the additional injury risk.

Overall, pretty even in terms of value, but Dan gets the near-term boost until we know what Gio will be.

Weekly 9 Real Rankings

NOTES:
- After weeks of picking on Pierce, he comes back with an impressive effort across the board. And of course he was playing me, demolishing my team to the tune of 9-1. With Sale and Scherzer leading the staff and some underperformers, he could be on the rise.


- Meanwhile, Dave put together his second consecutive dominating week thanks to Pick of the Year (so far) Nelson Cruz and fine pitching across the board.

- Guess who came in first in steals?

- In the process of getting beaten by Pierce, I also suffered my first loss in the K category. Sale came back and pitched Sunday instead of Monday. I also paid on the other side of that move, as Quinatana was moved to Monday for Brian and had a QS with 0 ER.

- After an excellent Week 8, Moose plummeted back to Earth fast, posting a 11.8 -- the worst real ranking of any team in a single week this season.

- Next week will be Week 10 in a 21-week season, so, incredibly, we'll be at the half way point. I'll try to put something together for then.

- Here's the latest top 20. As the season goes on, there are less and less surprises showing up here. Blackmon, Brantley, Alexei, and Hudson all qualify as significant surprises though given production in recent years. Tanaka sort of. He had plenty of hype and was a first rounder, but I don't think anyone expected him to be the second best starter. The most top 20s at this point are Chris Shomphe (Stanton, Alexei, Felix, Miguel) and Kyle (Cueto, Bautista, Puig), who has Upton just on the outside. Both benefit from trades with Jason for Felix and Cueto. Meanwhile, the top three teams in the standings have two combined (Mike 1, Jason 1, me 0).

Yahoo Ranks
1. OF Nelson Cruz BAL - Dave
2. SP Johnny Cueto CIN - Kyle
3. OF Giancarlo Stanton MIA - Shomphe
4. SS Troy Tulowitski COL - Brian
5. 3B Josh Donaldson OAK - Andrew
6. 3B Edwin Encarnacion TOR - Lars
7. OF Jose Bautista TOR - Kyle
8. SP Masahiro Tanaka NYY - Russ
9. SP Adam Wainright STL - Shannon
10. OF Yasiel Puig LAD - Kyle
11. OF Charlie Blackmon COL - Jason
12. OF Carlos Gomez MIL - Mike
13. OF Michael Brantley CLE - Dave
14. SS Alexei Ramirez CHW - Shomphe
15. 1B Paul Goldschmidt ARI - Dagan
16. SP Felix Hernandez SEA - Shomphe
17. SP Tim Hudson SF - Dagan
18. 1B Miguel Cabrera DET - Shomphe
19. SP Julio Teheran ATL - Brian
20. SP Chris Sale CHW - Pierce